UFC 327

Summary

The conversation covers a detailed analysis and predictions for various UFC fights, providing insights into the fighters' strengths, weaknesses, and potential outcomes. The hosts share their perspectives on each matchup, highlighting key factors such as fighting styles, experience, and potential for knockouts or submissions. The predictions are based on the fighters' past performances and current form, offering a comprehensive analysis of the upcoming UFC card. The conversation delves into fighter analysis, strategic betting, and odds analysis for upcoming UFC fights. It covers detailed analysis of specific matchups, fighter styles, and career histories. The hosts discuss their betting strategies, parlay plays, and the importance of confidence in betting decisions.

Takeaways

• UFC fight analysis
• Fighter predictions Strategic Betting
• Fighter Analysis

Chapters

• 00:00 UFC Fight Analysis and Predictions
• 05:33 Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque Prediction
• 12:25 Aaron Pico vs. Patricio Pitbull Prediction
• 18:00 Johnny Walker vs. Dominic Reyes Prediction
• 26:30 Fighter Analysis and Predictions
• 32:18 Jerry's Conditioning and Resume Analysis
• 39:09 Final Betting Plays and Strategy Discussion
• 45:50 Confidence in Betting and Future Predictions

Transcript

SPEAKER_04 0:01

Yo, welcome back to Mike Tup and Misinformed with your host Mad Dog and Lunch Money. This week we have a huge UFC card, Jerry Pohashka versus Carlos Olberg, and we're here to make millions of dollars. Let's get it, Mad Dog.

SPEAKER_02 0:14

Love it, dude. We hit at a good high percentage. We clipped well last week, dude, with our picks.

SPEAKER_04 0:20

Um, who who was the who's the main event again last week? It was oh, it was uh Moikano and Duncan. Dude, I picked Duncan, but I I wasn't really sure about that fight, dude. Like I wasn't I didn't feel super confident about that.

SPEAKER_02 0:34

No, I was all over, dude, Renato. And then same, we were on I flipped sides on Verna and Baby Shark too, man.

SPEAKER_04 0:41

Oh, I was wrong on Baby Shark. I was wrong on her.

SPEAKER_02 0:44

It was the close game, dude. It was close, but the ground games would made the difference.

SPEAKER_04 0:48

Yeah, I think Verna really pulled on the ground. Um I I thought it was gonna be closer than how I ended up. That's what I meant to say. But um, hey, I will say, and we just talked before the show, bro.

SPEAKER_02 0:58

You hit him with a lock, dude.

SPEAKER_04 0:59

Ethan Ewing, bro. If I say the L word, it's slapping, bro. I don't care. Every time I use the L word, it slaps. Ethan Ewing, man, I was I thought I was gonna be homeless for a moment, bro. But Ethan Hewing, we doubled down, man. I'm driving a Rolls Royce right now and I'm living in a mansion. So Ethan Ewing is my boy, dude. We we went out rich at for after his performance, and it wasn't even close, bro. He dogged his opponent.

SPEAKER_02 1:24

Yeah, exactly.

SPEAKER_04 1:26

He's a contender for sure, bro. He's a contender. Nobody wanna f no nobody wants smoke with him.

SPEAKER_02 1:33

Yeah, yeah, he's gonna go up fast, dude. He's gonna be he's gonna be moving up the ranks quick.

SPEAKER_04 1:39

Yeah, and and man, I I was on the Duncan side side, but man, respect to Moycano, man. Money Moicano, one thing about him is he's no easy fight for anybody, and he's and nobody's better on the microphone than him. That guy's crazy, bro. He's wild.

SPEAKER_02 1:57

He's wild. I think he pissed people off, dude, before he was done with the microphone interview. But his ground game is just so good, man. It's impressive. And obviously, with those guys like training together before and practicing together and kind of being on the same team, it makes a difference, right? Because you kind of know where you feel more confident or you're better, or you have an edge against that opponent. And I mean, he knew his his game plan and just you know did it. He went to work.

SPEAKER_04 2:21

Yeah, I think the only two fighters that are better than Monikano on the ground in that division is Arman and um um oh my gosh, I'm so sorry. Um, what's his name? The Islam Makachev. My bad. When it Islam dogged him on the ground in that championship fight. But I mean, Arman and Islam are two of the best scrappler and wrestlers. Honestly, probably in the whole UFC, aside from Hasmat Chamay, uh Kosmat Kosmat Chamayev. Ah, I can't talk today. Yeah. But um, hey, these fights this week, bro. I feel I know all these fighters well. I know sometimes in these early prelims, we get some newbies I'm not familiar with, but I know all these fighters on the roster today. So we're we're about to rock and roll, bro.

SPEAKER_02 3:10

I was surprised to see the early prelims with these guys on there. And some of the fights kind of canceled too. There was quite a few cancellations this card. But this is still a great card.

SPEAKER_04 3:20

Yeah, it we've been hating on the UFC cards the last couple weeks, but this one's actually pretty good, man. I'm I'm excited for this one.

unknown 3:29

Alright.

SPEAKER_04 3:30

You ready to jump into it?

SPEAKER_02 3:31

Yeah, who we got first?

SPEAKER_04 3:33

Alright. First fight of the night, we have uh Francisco Prado versus Charles Radke. Radke's the seasoned UFC vet. He's been in the UFC for quite some time. Francisco Prado's a little bit younger, a hunt hungry bull. Um, this is gonna be a close fight, man. Who do you like?

SPEAKER_02 3:51

Dude, hang on, I'm trying to pull up the odds real quick. I like I like Radke here. I think the experience is gonna take him the distance on this one, dude. I think they had similar game plans, but Radke is gonna, he's got the experience, like you said. I think that's gonna make the difference in this fight. Sometimes these younger guys coming in, man, they get the the UFC, I don't know, shockwave that first you know, couple of fights. Then Radke.

SPEAKER_04 4:15

Radkey's the heck of a gatekeeper, man. If you wanna be serious in the welterweight division, you have to beat Charles Radke. And he's no easy out, he's very well rounded, 35 years old. Um he's he's got a pretty solid resume um of fighters he's gone against. And Prado's only 23 years old. Again, he's a young, hungry guy. Um youth is obviously on a side. I mean, he's 12 years younger, but this is a big step up for him. I'm on the Radkey side, but not enough to bet it. I'm gonna probably just chill on this fight. Um, what is the odds? Who's the underdog?

SPEAKER_02 4:51

Rat Radke's at minus 180. Prado's at plus one fifty-five right now. Okay.

SPEAKER_04 4:56

I mean, I would put it closer to a pick'em, but um, I'm just gonna stay away from this fight, to be honest with you, man.

SPEAKER_02 5:03

I like Radkey. I'm actually I'm taking that as round one on my Martingale. Try to just win and enjoy the rest of the night.

SPEAKER_04 5:10

Hey, so you're starting you're starting the card off with the sweat. Alright, let's get it, man. No problem there. Alright, so you're on the Radkey side and throwing a bet on him. I'm I like him, but I don't love the play. I'm gonna I'm gonna pass on that first fight. Next up we have Kelvin Gastlum versus Vicente Luque, both UFC vets um that are really on the decline, to be honest with you. They've both kind of been there done that. Not in terms of ever um winning a championship, but um just you know, great resumes in their strength of schedule. They fought the who's who of the division, and um, you know, now they're just in the UFC to collect a check. I know Gaslam's been one foot in, one foot out the door for quite some time. It seems like he never makes weight. Luque is a professional, he seems to always make weight, but uh Luque has really um declined in my opinion, especially the last like two or two years.

SPEAKER_02 6:03

So yeah, he's declined a lot. That's what scares me about him. Um I think Kelvin's the better boxer here, but I think like you said, his hesitation kind of being in and out, his weight cuts, especially, I think dictate, you know, and show a lot of how much he really cares about this. Um, I mean this is uh you know dogger pass, basically. Kelvin Galslam is at minus 280, and Vincent is at plus two thirty. So dog or pass for me.

SPEAKER_04 6:31

Yeah, dogger pass as well. Um I kind of like the over in this fight. I feel like um I feel I feel like it's gonna go over two and a half rounds. I'd be closer to play in that, but yeah, absolutely dogger pass. Those odds should be closer. I don't think Gaslam's ever been finished, and Luke's chin has become more glassy the last few years. Uh Luke is a little bit more well-rounded, in my opinion. So if he mixes it up and tries to shoot some takedowns throughout the fight, um, I feel like that's his path to victory, or possibly pulling off a submission. But again, it's hard to finish Gasoline.

SPEAKER_02 7:06

Yeah, he needs the submission and Kelvin needs to get the KO.

SPEAKER_04 7:10

The bigger fight, though, in this matchup is Gaslam making weight. Him versus Scale is the biggest competition of his career.

SPEAKER_02 7:17

That's round one. Right. Over two and a half is at minus 150. So that those are pretty decent odds. Because I I agree. I think it'll go over.

SPEAKER_04 7:27

Yeah, I think that's a great play, man. You're getting you're getting a little, you know, about a blackjack hand. You know, you're paying a little bit extra, but that's close to a pick'em. I'll take the over. All right, dude. Next up, we have um we have a great matchup, dude. Both these guys are on fire. They've got they both are on win streaks right now in the UFC. Um, have not lost in the UFC yet. We have Chris Padilla versus Markel uh Metros. This is a close one, bro. I'm I'm kind of torn. I feel like Chris Padilla's Padilla's record um doesn't do him justice with being 17 and 6 because it seems like his losses were earlier in his career. But since he's got to the UFC in in more recent years, he he's not losing. I feel like Padilla's a little bit more well-rounded here, but uh Metaros is a problem. He's only lost once. He's 11 and 1. I'm on the Padilla side here, but man, both these guys are young, hungry bucks that are really looking to make statements and climb their way up the lightweight division.

SPEAKER_02 8:25

Dude, I'm I'm doing the flip side of the coin, man. I'm taking Madros here at plus 140. I think it's I think this is gonna be closer. And like you said, I think he's a little more well-rounded. I was expecting this to be closer to a pick'em. So Padilla at minus 165. Yeah, I mean, I think you you nailed it on the head, dude. I think he's more well-rounded. Anything could happen, honestly, especially with both of these kind of young fighters coming in. The over two and a half is at minus two seventy-five, so the books thinking it goes the distance here.

SPEAKER_04 8:56

Yeah. You know what? Uh with those odds, I feel like that's pretty bad value right there with how big of a minus that over is. I would be tempted to take the under just because of the value. Especially with guys like this, they're not making a whole lot of money in the UFC, and they do they are gonna be chasing that finish bonus for sure. And again, just making a statement to ensure they get bigger and better fights in the future. So, you know, both these guys are gonna come out swinging, you know, looking to uh get Dana White, Hunter Campbell, and Sean Shelby's attention.

SPEAKER_02 9:29

So So the under two and a half is plus two hundred, so that's that's great.

SPEAKER_04 9:33

Yeah, I'd be tempted to take that, but um, it is gonna be a close fight, bro, and both of them are dog they're they they're not accustomed to losing ever recently.

SPEAKER_02 9:41

Yeah, exactly. Both of these guys are gonna be they're gonna be looking for the kill.

SPEAKER_04 9:45

Alright. I don't feel confident enough to to put money on this. I am on the Padilla side, so you and me we'll bet 20 push-ups on the next podcast for uh that fight since you're on Madero's side. We'll flip. Alright, next up we have Tatiana Suarez versus Lupi Godinez. Uh Godinez is 14 and 5. Tatiana is 12 and 1. This is gonna be a good woman's fight, man. Who do you like?

SPEAKER_02 10:10

This would be a great match, dude. Tatiana's gonna come out really strong. She's always coming out looking for the kill, she's looking for the KO, she's looking for the submission. And on the flip side, um, Lupi's she's basically a decision maker, dude. She loves to take it the distance and ride it out. So it's I I think Tatiana gets the job done, dude. And I don't know if it's gonna be KO or submission. That that's where I was kind of torn there, but I think she she's gonna get in there, and just her overall aggression and uh you know controlling the ring and controlling the octagon side is gonna make a big difference and look for her to start escalating up through during her career here. Tatiana is a great woman's fighter.

SPEAKER_04 10:48

You think she's a serious contender right here?

SPEAKER_02 10:51

I I think she could be, dude. I think you give her a few.

SPEAKER_04 10:53

I mean she's 12 and 1, man.

SPEAKER_02 10:54

And I think you give her two, three more years, and I think you'll see this girl up there, dude.

SPEAKER_04 11:01

Um, for me, I feel like it's gonna be a close matchup, but I'm with you. I'm on the Suarez side. Loopy's like a box of chocolates, man. You never know what you're gonna get. Some nights she looks like she's a serious contender, and then there's some nights where she looks like a gatekeeper for the newbies coming into the UFC. It it's hard to see consistency from her. And on Tatiana's side, I feel like I know I'm what I'm going to get, and I'm gonna get a great performance out of her with full effort. You know, she I believe she's a contender as well. Um I like Tatiana in a unanimous decision here.

SPEAKER_02 11:34

Yeah, I mean, like I said, that Jesus, the over is two and a half and minus five twenty five, so they're expecting a decision. But Soar is it. That's that's what I think, dude. I think that could happen, honestly. Because she I she's gonna be going for the kill.

SPEAKER_04 11:50

Especially if she's looking to get a title shot. I mean, what better way than to have uh, you know, a fantastic finish? You know, especially with women's MMA, typically a lot of these fights, um, the majority of them do go to decisions. So um, if Suarez gets a dis uh sorry, submission here, then I feel like that'll really um you know get more eyes on her and give her uh boost up those rankings. So yeah, uh I like Suarez here for sure um in a parlay, but um yeah, I don't know. Submission, there's value there. I'll just say that. I don't feel real confident, but I think there's a lot of value in that.

SPEAKER_02 12:24

Yeah. So Suarez at minus 160, so I really like Suarez, dude. I'm I'm loving the gods already. Let's ride that. That's my second one of the Martingale if we go that far.

SPEAKER_04 12:36

Alright, alright, sweet, dude. Next up we have this is a really um interesting stylistic matchup. We have um Mateus Gamrat versus Esteban Ribbavics. Ribbavix would rather stand and trade. Um Gamrot is you know one of those guys that just wants to wrestle the heck out of you. He wants to get you against the fence, and he's like, he reminds me of of a little bit of like Marab style. You know, he just wants he's constantly shooting takedowns the entire fight. If he even if you stuff his takedowns, he will not stop. He's such a relentless wrestler. And uh this is for me, this is a matter of can Ribovix continue to stuff the takedowns throughout the entire fight, keep it standing, because there's two, you know, Gamrot, his strength, if if he gets it on the ground, it's his world. He should be a minus 400 if he gets to the ground. If we're if Ribbic keeps it standing, he should be minus 400. So that's why it's such a good stylistic matchup. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 13:35

That that you said it, dude. That's exactly it. So Gamrot looking for the sub, Rivic's looking for the KO, looking for the stand-up game. Um, you know, style tystically two different things. So it's hard, but you almost always have to kind of lead to the guy who's gonna get the control time and get get the ground time. Typically the judges kind of lean towards that unless there's crazy damage from the stand-up game. So uh, this is a tough one, dude. And the odds are they're not terrible. But Gamron at minus 180 and Ribovix at plus 155. So I kind of lean towards the dog for the odds on this one. Dog or pass for me.

SPEAKER_04 14:10

Yeah, I I feel the same way.

SPEAKER_02 14:12

I hate agreeing with all these picks with you, but what's the age difference too?

SPEAKER_04 14:17

There is a big age difference here, so let me pull this up for you real quick. Um, Gamrot is 35 years old and Ribovix is 29. So for me, bro, I I'm on the dog side too. I don't love the play because I definitely could see Gamrot, you know, wrestling his way to a decision. But Ribbavix does have a lot of power and he is explosive on the feet. Um, if he um gains respect from Gamrot and gets some good shots in uh before he gets uh you know starts these takedown attempts, I think Ribbics has a real shot here. Um Gamrot also, I feel like he's had opportunities to get to the um title, you know, to get a title shot. And it seems like every time he climbs up the rankings, he loses some to somebody and falls back down. He's one of those guys that's a gatekeeper for the contenders. You know, like we always talk about there's two levels of gatekeepers. Yeah one for the newbies, and one, it's like if you beat this guy, you're in the contenders. Yeah, you know, you're in the top ten, you're in the top five, you're you're really have a shot at um getting a chance at a title at some point. And I feel like that's where Gamrot lies. So this is a huge step up for Riv Ribbicks because Gamrot does have a much, much, much better resume.

SPEAKER_03 15:31

For sure, dude.

SPEAKER_04 15:34

So I'm on the Ribovic side though, man, but I I'm not confident at all in that play.

SPEAKER_02 15:39

Yeah, I mean Ribovic's plus 155, but not slamming that one.

SPEAKER_04 15:43

In respect to the matchmakers, man, because there's so many these these fights are just unbelievably matched well. I I love how well well these fights are matched up. You know, there's so many 50-50s on this card.

SPEAKER_03 15:57

Alright, here we go.

SPEAKER_02 15:58

Pitbull.

SPEAKER_04 15:59

Alright, next up we have Randy Rudeboy Brown versus Kevin Holland, man, dude. This is a banger.

SPEAKER_02 16:06

I was ready, I jumped it, dude. You know what's oh yeah, there we go. My bad, bro. I was ready to go for Pitbull. Alright, dude, what do you think about this one? I I like Kevin Holland here, man, over Randy Brown. I'm not a big fan of Randy Randy Brown, dude. I know it's terrible. Kevin's got all the time.

SPEAKER_04 16:22

I feel like Kevin Holland is a little bit more diverse. You know, he he has a submission game and he can grapple if need to. Uh Randy Brown, both of them are pretty explosive on the feet, but uh Randy Brown, I feel like I'm gonna take him in this fight. I'm on the rude boy side. But sometimes he just isn't as active as I would like Randy to be. You know, I feel like he kind of stalls out in the first round or two and then he puts it on a little bit too late. And with Kevin Holland, you know, he's gonna need to get this going early because Kevin's gonna be in his face. Exactly. I feel like it's gonna be a really close fight, bro. I like Randy in a split decision.

SPEAKER_02 17:00

Alright, the over two and a half minus one fifty, and it's basically a pick'em. Holland's at even money, and Randy Brown's at minus one twenty. The other card I saw was at minus one ten for both.

SPEAKER_04 17:10

Hey, I'm gonna tell you right now, bro. I'm gonna when I do a parlay at the end of this show, I'm taking the over on that fight. I like the over better than picking a fighter. They're both they both have pretty good chins, and um, I don't know, bro. I just I think it's going to a decision for sure.

SPEAKER_02 17:27

I'm good with it, dude.

SPEAKER_04 17:28

It's gonna be a split. That might even be a draw, bro. I feel like Randy's got a little bit more power, but Kevin is so active, man. It's hard to I don't know. But but also Holland kind of checks out at fights sometimes too. Like that's like I said about Loopy, Kevin Holland's a box of chocolates, bro, because sometimes he yeah he just doesn't have that dog in him, some fights, and that concerns me. It's really hard for me to bet on Kellet Kevin Holland.

SPEAKER_02 17:53

Because like you say, I feel like sometimes if he comes out and he feels like he's not winning the fight, he just kind of gives up and quits on himself.

SPEAKER_04 17:59

Like you say, he just mentally checks out, and I don't I don't feel that way about Randy Brown. With him, I'm just more worried about the activity side, so that's why I am on Randy's side, but over two and a half is really attractive to me, especially at minus 150. All right, next up we have Aaron Pico versus Pitbull, Patricio Pitbull. This is a Bellator PFL um super fight, bro. Super fight. You know, both these guys have struggled in the UFC to get it going. You know, they had a lot of hype coming into the UFC, and you know, at different points were talked about being potential contenders for championship fights, and they just have underperformed.

SPEAKER_02 18:41

Yeah, he pitbull really underperformed like crazy. I would think there was so much hype around him and just all the media and everything, and then he just came in and flatlined, dude.

SPEAKER_04 18:51

So for me with Pitbull, I feel like he's just out of his prime, bro. He's like he's in his high 30s right now, and this is the featherweight division, too. I mean, the featherweight division, you know, it's it's a lot more based off speed, and Pitbull's lost a couple steps. I feel like if he would have came um in his early 30s, I just feel like his whole prime was in the PFL and Bellator. So um unfortunately, we're not getting the best version of him because he was a great fighter, and he's still a good fighter, just not great anymore. And with Aaron Pico, um, he's got a glass chin, he gets knocked out easily. And it's kind of hard to evaluate where Pico's at because he fought Lerone Murphy in his first UFC fight. And Lerone Murphy, you know, he's he's at the top of the division, you know. He's he's a top four or five fighter in the featherweight division, so it's kind of hard to hate and uh and to hate on Pico and sleep on him because he came in fighting one of the best fighters in the division.

SPEAKER_02 19:49

Yeah, he did, exactly. And didn't he take away?

SPEAKER_04 19:54

He took an elbow from hell.

SPEAKER_02 19:56

Exactly. Alright, so the the odds are ridiculous. Pico's at minus 320. And I I mean, I for the life of me, I don't know what's up with that, dude. And then Pitbull's at plus two sixty, so I mean, I I'm just gonna pass. I'm not gonna put money on either of these guys. I'll just watch the Bellator matchup and enjoy a fight.

SPEAKER_04 20:14

I'm gonna pass too, bro. I feel like realistically, um Pico is gonna try to wrestle Pitbull and ground and pound him to get a KO, or it's gonna go to a decision. Pitbull's issue is just inactivity, man. He starts his fights so slow, and I mean he's historically known for that. It's stressful watching him, man. You know, a lot of people boot her in his fights because he's just not he's just not active, man. He fights very defensively at this point of his career. You know, he fights he fights to not lose instead of fight to kill.

SPEAKER_02 20:45

Yeah, exactly.

SPEAKER_04 20:47

So and Pico fights to kill, but he gets so reckless that he puts himself in easy situations to get knocked out if he's not knocking you out. So we're both passing on that one, bro. Next up, we got two UFC OGs, bro. These guys have been in the UFC for quite some time. Um, both very respected, and you know, if you're a real UFC fan, you got respect for both of these guys. We got Cub Swanson versus Nate Lanwer. Um, I like Nate Lanwer in this matchup, bro. I know Cub is is a great boxer and a legend, but I feel like he's just too old, man. Nate the train still has a little juice in the tank.

SPEAKER_02 21:33

This one's so tough for me, dude, because I kind of was going back and forth on both sides, and it's a pick'em too. So, really, you can pick whoever you prefer or whoever your fan base is and just enjoy the fight. Don't go crazy with this one. They're both at minus one ten. I I don't know, dude. I'm just gonna stay all away from this fight altogether. Like you said, I think you know, Cubs got the better box or the yeah, the better boxing, but you just don't know what's gonna happen. I don't think he's got enough power, you know, to not. I don't think he can get a KO. So I I see this going to the decision either way, but this is this is just an enjoy. I wouldn't be surprised if you see Cub win and retire.

SPEAKER_04 22:12

Yeah, hey, you know what? Unfortunately, there's not a lot of happy endings with the UFC, man. And again, I'm on the landware side. I I don't I don't love it, but I really, really like it because in my opinion, Cub's only way to win is by getting a knockout because Nate mixes it up a lot better. I feel like his wrestling is the advantage here in the matchup. Nate could win by a knockout, submission, or decision win. And he's been a lot more active than Cub has. Cub's been one foot in and one foot out the door for quite some time now. It feels like he's just fighting to, you know, get a little bit of money before he officially calls it quits and retires. So um I don't like a guy that's one foot in, one foot out. I like Nate, and I'm taking him to the bank.

SPEAKER_02 22:56

Love it.

SPEAKER_04 22:58

Alright. Next up we got Johnny Walker versus Dominic Reyes. Dude, both these guys got a lot of power, and both these guys definitely can get knocked out. Who do you like?

SPEAKER_02 23:09

Dude, I don't know, man. This is a crazy fight, dude. Um sorry, someone just screen sex me.

SPEAKER_04 23:15

You're good. I can't bet Johnny Walker, bro. I just can't. I feel like he could get knocked out by anybody. And when Reyes loses, loses, he loses to the best in the division, bro. I think Reyes still has a little bit more juice in the tank. I feel like he fights a lot more intelligently. He has a higher fight IQ than Johnny Walker. But that's what's scary about Johnny Walker is he's so unpredictable.

SPEAKER_02 23:38

Because Walker hasn't beat anybody with a real name. He kind of beats, you know, newbies and contenders coming up.

SPEAKER_04 23:44

Yeah, every time Johnny Walker climbs up the rankings, somebody knocks him out or humbles him. And again, Reyes has only fought the best of the best. I mean, his losses for the most part are to guys that have won a championship or, you know, guys who have a lot of knockouts on the record. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 23:59

I like Reyes here, bro. I I actually I love Reyes here. And he's actually my third one for the Martin Gill.

SPEAKER_04 24:06

Yeah, it's hard to not bet. I mean, if you're taking Johnny Walker, I feel like you have to take him by knockout. There's no way Walker wins a decision. Um, it's it's knockout or bust for Walker. Reyes could win any way he, you know, he could win all three ways. I feel like um Reyes is gonna get a late knockout or get the decision win. That's my opinion.

SPEAKER_02 24:26

What's the reach advantage on Walker?

SPEAKER_04 24:29

I'll tell you right now. Let me pull it up. But again, like I said, it's knockout or pass for Walker because he's so unpredictable, bro. He's he does the wildest stuff in fights. He's 36, Walker's 34. The reach advantage, it goes to Walker. He has a five-inch reach advantage.

SPEAKER_02 24:48

That's what I thought. I thought it was something crazy. So that's always something to look forward to, especially if you know both guys like to stand and bang, right? That's an amazing difference there. But I just I'll I don't think I'll ever bet Walker, dude. It's so tough.

SPEAKER_04 25:01

You can't, bro. Unless you're taking unless you're taking him by knockout, or you know, he's a huge underdog in a fight, then maybe it's it's one you can entertain. But I think Walker is already peaked. And uh Reese is already peaked as well, but I think Rey is just a couple levels ahead of him. Alright, so I'm not gonna use lock, but this is my favorite play of the UFC card, and I'm very confident about this play. This is my I'm gonna straight bet this fight, aside from a couple parlays. I'm gonna I'm gonna do probably a two or three unit straight bet. And Andy's an underdog.

SPEAKER_01 25:37

I'm taking crazy Josh Hoket is knocking out Curtis Blades, baby.

SPEAKER_04 25:43

Let's go the space. And we're gonna get a crazy, a crazy microphone moment right after the fight.

SPEAKER_02 25:50

Dude, you wanna know what's crazy is what I I always go and look and do all my picks before I see what the odds are, just so I'm not like persuaded anyway. And I was like, how the hell is he the underdog in this fight, dude?

SPEAKER_04 26:01

I'm surprised because you know, a lot of people respect Blades because he has a really high wrestling pedigree. Yeah. And, you know, he's been there, done that, his resume's nice, but dude, Blades is on the decline, and the heavyweight division needs stars, dude. They the heavyweight division needs new, fresh faces, and Hoket is the perfect guy, bro. He's gonna rise to the rankings. I won't I don't know if he'll get a title shot, but he's definitely gonna be top five in the next two years. And Curtis Blades is again, he's got wear and tear, he's got mileage, he's got he's accumulated a lot of damage, and his strength is wrestling, but guess what? Hoket can wrestle too.

SPEAKER_02 26:41

Yeah. And sometimes he doesn't, he he's not even very smart in the ring, dude. He just kind of shoots and lays on people, and he's like a fat wrestler, he's not an active wrestler.

SPEAKER_04 26:51

And I just don't think he's hungry anymore, bro. And Hoket is, you know, he's starving, bro. He's he's licking his chops, bro. He's ready.

SPEAKER_02 27:00

I was like, dang.

SPEAKER_04 27:02

Shocked. I I'm shocked, bro. I'm honestly shocked my here's my prediction of how it plays out, too. Hoket is gonna tag blades up on the feet, blades is gonna shoot a couple times, and Hokit's gonna stuff those takedowns and knock out Curtis Blades, bro. He's either gonna knock him out or get a scission. Um if it does go to the ground and blades does take him down, I think Hokit gets right back up. I I think Hokit's wrestling is plenty good enough to not have issues with Blades here.

SPEAKER_02 27:29

Hoket's in much better conditioning.

SPEAKER_04 27:31

Yeah, and Blades, when he does get you on the ground, I think he's just one of those fighters that kind of lay him praise on you. You know, he might ground and pound, but I don't I don't think fighters fear his submission game at all. No, so I think Hogit's taking this to the bank, bro. I want to throw a lock on it really, really bad, but I'll just say I'm really confident and I'm gonna put multi-units on a straight bet there. Especially an underdog. Are you out of your mind? Watch this. He won't be an underdog on Saturday night. I guarantee the odds flip. Guaranteed. Oh, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 28:02

Well, I the only thing I could think is that they're trying to promote Blades to get people just for name recognition. That's the only thing I could think. And it's like they're they're this is a little bit of a trap bet from Vegas, you know?

SPEAKER_04 28:14

Yeah, I don't bro. If Blades wins, I'll be shocked. I'll just say that.

SPEAKER_02 28:17

I just don't know how. Like you said, I think he's gonna get out wrestled, he's gonna get out box.

SPEAKER_04 28:21

This is one of those layps. It's a UFC layup for the UFC's hooking up Josh Hoket, because if he gets Blades on his resume, he's gonna jump to the he's gonna be in the top seven.

SPEAKER_02 28:31

And we didn't have a layup this card. There it is. That's the layup right there. Third fight, dude, right? So it's like everyone's getting ready to go into the main event, the co-main. It's like you turn it on a little earlier. They're they're trying to get this guy some airtime, right?

SPEAKER_04 28:44

And it's the third, you know, it's it's it's the fight right under the co-main event.

SPEAKER_02 28:48

So I mean that's exactly.

SPEAKER_04 28:50

Yeah, and and Hoket is very good on the microphone. You know, he he says some wild stuff, but he definitely captures your attention.

SPEAKER_02 29:01

No one beats Moikano, bro. Nobody beats Moikano.

SPEAKER_04 29:05

Moikano is a different guy. Alright, man. Next up we have a banger matchup here, dude. We have Azamat Marazkanov versus Paulo Costa. Bro, Azamat has not lost yet.

SPEAKER_02 29:18

He's 16-0KO.

SPEAKER_04 29:20

Bro, 16-0, knocking out everybody. This guy's gonna be fighting for the light heavyweight title. Maybe in his next fight, bro, if he knocks out Paulo Costa, he might be next up for the title shot, bro.

SPEAKER_02 29:33

I'm good with it, dude. I love it.

SPEAKER_04 29:36

The thing about Polo though, he does have the better resume. Polo's very good on the feet. Um, it's hard to knock him out. Polo's got a great chin.

SPEAKER_02 29:45

Yeah, that's the only thing. It's hard to knock him out.

SPEAKER_04 29:47

I feel like he's only lost to some of the best fighters, too.

SPEAKER_02 29:50

I just I don't know, dude. I don't know why. I have a hard time betting on him, man. It's weird, dude. I have a hard time betting on this guy.

SPEAKER_04 29:56

I just feel like he doesn't take it serious sometimes. You know, Polo isn't real. Polo's one of those guys that's just so naturally gifted, but I just feel like he doesn't mentally take it as serious as he should throughout his UFC career. I feel like if he, you know, like that fight where where uh he fought Adasanya for the title and he got too much wine. And then I drank too much wine, you know, and then he goofs off on social media. But Azamat, dude, he ain't playing around, bro. That dude is living breathing at the gym. He's probably sleeping on the mats at the gym as we speak, bro. He's knocking everybody out. He's never tasted a defeat. I think he's gonna walk Paulo down. This he might knock out Paulo Costa, bro, but I'm not I'm not fading Azimat, bro. I'm not I'm not messing with him.

SPEAKER_02 30:46

Yeah. He he might knock Paulo back into social media. He's got the hands and Costa's got the miles on him, dude. So I think it's about time.

SPEAKER_04 30:57

Yeah, this might be Paulo's fight to get knocked out, bro. I'm not I'm not messing with Azamat, bro. I'm I'm not fading that guy. And he's it's really not bad for a parlay piece. I think he's like, what is he about minus 200?

SPEAKER_02 31:09

Yeah, minus 200.

SPEAKER_04 31:11

Yeah, I'll take that. I'll take it. Yeah, I'll take it. I'll take it, dude.

SPEAKER_02 31:14

I'll take it straight up, I'll put it on parlays. It's it's a greedy.

SPEAKER_04 31:18

Yeah, we're rocking with that all day. We're taking Azamat, man. He he is giving me no reason not to take him.

SPEAKER_02 31:23

Alright, Carlos versus Giri, bro.

SPEAKER_04 31:27

Main card event, baby. This is for the um, this is the title fight because uh Alex Pereira had gone up to heavyweight and vacated his belt. Jiri, if he's not fighting, um, if he's not fighting Alex Pereira, it seems like he's taken everybody else out. And Ulberg has only lost one time and he's been on fire. This is a super interesting matchup to me because Ulberg is a million times more technical than Jiri. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 31:56

Um, he's kind of wild in the ring, dude.

SPEAKER_04 32:00

Kinda wild. He's a maniac, bro.

SPEAKER_02 32:05

He's just all over the place, dude. Even like with his training and everything outside the gym, I feel like he's just like he just tries to be. He's not human, bro.

SPEAKER_04 32:12

He's not human.

SPEAKER_02 32:13

Yeah, that's a good way to put it, bro. He's like on a different element than everybody else.

SPEAKER_04 32:17

Like everything about him, too, like you said, inside the octagon, outside his personality, Jiri is just a he's a real life anime character.

SPEAKER_02 32:26

Dude, 100%, bro.

SPEAKER_04 32:28

So for this is a really interesting matchup, though, because Olberg is way more technical.

SPEAKER_02 32:34

Yeah.

SPEAKER_04 32:35

Um, and his fight IQ is a lot higher. However, Jiri doesn't care. He will walk you down. You could be beating the crap out of Jiri for three rounds, and he just he's got a granite chin, bro. You know, again, Alex is Pereira's the only guy that's really knocking out Jiri or taking or that that Jiri fears.

SPEAKER_02 32:57

But yeah, and conditioning is great. Like you can't, you know, get him exhausted, you can't tire him out.

SPEAKER_04 33:02

It's like the power's alive all five rounds with Jiri. So with Carlos, if he doesn't put him out, he's in danger every single round. Even if he's winning on the scorecards, even if he's up 30, 40 strikes um in the statistics, Jiri is just he just won't stop, bro. He's a walk-in zombie, and you don't know what he's gonna throw either. Um, another thing is Jiri has a lot better resume. You know, he's fought everybody of the division. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 33:29

Carlos. And he's never really been dog walked. Like he's never just been like nobody knows how to beat this guy because he's so different every fight.

SPEAKER_04 33:39

Yeah, he he really is, bro. And you never know what he's gonna throw, man. He's he can he'll throw a knee, he'll throw an elbow, he'll do a 360 spin. Dude, he's just the craziest guy ever. His punches come from every different, you know, angles I've never seen in my whole life, dude.

SPEAKER_02 33:55

It's like an anger fight for reals, bro. That's the best.

SPEAKER_04 33:58

Yeah, he's different. This is tough for me though, man. Like, honestly, I I'm on the Olberg side just because I'm like, man, how much longer can Jiri go fighting this crazy and staying at the very top of the division? Um, and Olberg, you know, I I think Olberg gets dog walked by a guy that's wrestle heavy. But if it's a standing kickboxing fight, it's hard to beat Olberg, bro, because that's a specialty. So I'm on the Olberg side here because I feel like he has more paths to victory. He could get a KO or decision. I feel like Giri only wins by getting a KO here. If he doesn't get a knockout, he's getting knocked out or losing decision. So I have to take Carlos Olberg.

SPEAKER_02 34:41

So to me, that's the play right there. Go to the book and pick each one to get the knockout. And then watch the fight, and whoever gets the KO, you win either way, because it's plus money on both sides. What if Olberg wins by decision, bro? No, then you lose, but fuck it.

SPEAKER_04 34:56

Hey, you know what? If it does go to decision, it I would be they're both gonna be super beat up. I'll say that. They're both gonna have two fat black eyes. What might one might have a freaking bump out in his head? Looks like they're gonna look like victims of whack-a-mole.

SPEAKER_02 35:13

I do I wouldn't be surprised if either Olberg wins like in round one or round two, or Jerry catches him with like a freaking you know, side head kick in round three. Yeah.

SPEAKER_04 35:25

Dude, I know if Jerry wins too, he's gonna call for prayer to come back down to fight. Jerry wants his he's lost two times to Alex, but dude, he he will not let that go. And I don't you know, I don't blame him, man. I that's sports for you, you know. If you got a guy that has your number, you want to take him out. It's the same thing with Adasanya and Pereira.

SPEAKER_02 35:45

That's a good fighter, though, right? Someone who wants to fight the best or fight the person that they can't beat, you know? Not be going after all the young guys and pad your career so you're 50 and oh when you you know leave and you never really fought anybody with any talent.

SPEAKER_04 36:00

I will say this though, bro. Both these fighters, you have if whoever you take, I feel like you can't go wrong if you're confident about it because you know both of these fighters' preparation is on point. You know, they take the sport very serious, they're putting the work in, you know, they live live and breathe MMA. So either guy that you take, you're gonna get their the their best shot, their best version. Both should have zero problem on the scales. They're both extremely professional fighters.

SPEAKER_02 36:29

Yeah, exactly. No problems. Olberg is technically the underdog right now at like plus 110 or 105. So you could bet him now and then wait for the fight day, and um, I assume the line will be closer. It might flip over, and then you could catch Jerry on the plus side, you know, there as well.

SPEAKER_04 36:45

I personally think that it'll be interesting, but I personally think Jerry becomes a bigger favorite on fight night just because he's a lot more of a fan favorite. You know, a lot of people know who Jerry is and he's extremely entertaining. Um, but in Olberg, you know, I feel like casuals sorry, I had a bug or something, but I feel like the casuals don't know much about Ulberg. You know, he's not a big UFC personality, so he'll be a new face for a lot of people watching this Saturday.

SPEAKER_02 37:12

They love to promote Jiri, dude, because he's always he just looks different like every scene. It's like his hit.

SPEAKER_04 37:17

And like we're talking about, dude. Like we were talking the other week about how you know there's nobody really carrying the UFC on their back right now. And Jiri is one of the faces of the UFC, you know, and I think of like top five faces or um people who sell fights and and get more eyeballs on fight night. It Jiri's definitely in that top five.

SPEAKER_02 37:36

Well, and just all the interesting shit he's doing outside of the ring. It's like he's like, Oh, I'm gonna go stay in this house that has no electricity for three months, and I'll come back a better fighter. You know, I mean, it's like he's crazy, bro.

SPEAKER_04 37:48

Hey, Andy's having a kid right now. His kids do any day.

SPEAKER_02 37:52

Oh, I didn't know that.

SPEAKER_04 37:54

He's got a kid do any day, and he said, he said, he told his wife, he said, no matter what, you know, I'm gonna be fighting. So, you know, you take he said, you take care of your business, and I'll take care of mine.

SPEAKER_01 38:04

He's like, you better hold that in.

SPEAKER_04 38:06

I will say got that grown dad energy right now, dude.

SPEAKER_02 38:12

That's crazy. I didn't know that. That's nuts.

SPEAKER_04 38:14

Big dad energy, dude. Imagine Jiri's kid, bro.

SPEAKER_02 38:19

Dude, if it's a boy, he's gonna be like a khib, dude. He's gonna be coming out wrestling bears.

SPEAKER_04 38:24

Dude, he's gonna come out the womb kicking the nurse in the face on the delivery. You're gonna see the nurse catch the baby's head, and then as soon as the nurse pulls him out, that baby's gonna go, Wah.

SPEAKER_01 38:39

We got a feisty little one here. Yeah. He's got some energy, this guy.

SPEAKER_04 38:45

Yeah, bro. True's kid's gonna be gonna be a dude, he's he's gonna be a force to be reckoned with.

SPEAKER_02 38:53

Yeah, dude, 100%.

SPEAKER_04 38:56

Alright, man, so let's give out some plays here. You gave out your martingale. So on your martingale, leg one is Radkey for you, leg number two is Suarez, and leg number three was Reyes. Is that correct?

SPEAKER_02 39:09

Uh yeah, dude. No. Uh oh, dude, I lied. I took Azmat actually as my third leg at minus 190.

SPEAKER_04 39:18

Okay, love it. I'm not mad at that at all, bro. Alright, so I'm taking Hoket um on a two-unit straight bet. That's my main play. And then for a parlay, I'm gonna take the over two and a half on the rude boy Kevin Holland fight. Like number one.

SPEAKER_03 39:41

Yep. Over two and a half.

SPEAKER_04 39:44

Like number two, I'm taking Azmat. Leg number three, I'm gonna take Ulberg and Hedge if necessary. That should pay probably the plus two eighty plus three hundred, I'm assuming. Yeah, so yeah, that those are my two plays though, bro, and I feel like they're both bangers, dude. I'm taking a dog and the other one. And your Martingale method, I'll be absolute I mean hell hell will freeze over if that loses. Yeah, dude.

SPEAKER_02 40:36

I mean it it does happen, unfortunately, occasionally, but for the most part I've been uh we've been pretty lucky, dude. We've been hitting them all. I we when we first started the podcast, I think I lost one at the end of the year last year or the beginning of the year this year, but since then we've been we've been rolling with it fight after fight, dude.

SPEAKER_04 40:54

So Yeah, we we got this. One let's do uh let's do one long shot party. Let's do it, let's do one that's gonna be like plus two thousand. Alright.

SPEAKER_02 41:05

This guy he's getting crazy right here.

SPEAKER_04 41:06

Alright, so let's do this. And only if you agree. Tell me on any of these you don't agree, and we'll take it off. Suarez leg one.

SPEAKER_00 41:14

I love that, dude, yeah. Umare leg two or no?

SPEAKER_03 41:24

I'm gonna say pick that one because I like Swanson.

SPEAKER_02 41:26

Did you pick Gamrot or Ribex better?

SPEAKER_04 41:31

I'm scared of that one, bro. Alright. Let's what about uh alright, so we both like Tatiana. Let's do Tatiana Swarez. What about Reyes Leg 2?

SPEAKER_02 41:41

Yeah, Rey is for sure, dude. Let's do Josh Hoykit, Asimod again.

SPEAKER_04 41:46

Um, since you like Jiri and I like Olberg, what's the overunder on rounds?

SPEAKER_02 41:54

Uh actually, I dude, I like Olberg too, to be honest with you.

SPEAKER_04 41:57

Yeah, throw Olberg on there, dude. That'll pay that's easy over a thousand.

SPEAKER_02 42:00

Yeah, I think his boxing's better, but Jerry's just so wild, dude. It's hard to bet against it's hard to bet against Jerry. Let's just say that.

SPEAKER_04 42:09

That's hedgeable though, bro. We're good. It's even money, so that's an easy hedge. What's that pay?

SPEAKER_02 42:13

Plot plus sixteen ninety-three, so basically plus seventeen hundred.

SPEAKER_04 42:17

Whoa! Dude, that's fire. That's a good alright, so again, that was that was Suarez, that was Reyes, Poikit, that Hokit, Azmat, and then Ulberg. Dude, that's that's that's a sexy play right there.

SPEAKER_02 42:36

Since we're up, I'm gonna do that as uh like as a half unit, dude, and go crazy.

SPEAKER_04 42:41

Alright, bet. Yeah, that sounds good.

SPEAKER_03 42:44

Bam.

SPEAKER_04 42:45

Oh yeah, this is a money week, bro. This is a money.

SPEAKER_02 42:49

Yeah, I think we like this shape here.

SPEAKER_04 42:52

Let's get it, dude. Alright, well, those are plays and for UFC Finite. If you love them, ride 'em with us. If you don't like them, then lose your money. I don't care. I don't care, man.

SPEAKER_02 43:04

We're doing good. Again, we we don't bet all of the you know the fighters, right? That's why we even say like dogger pass or just a complete pass or just look for the over here. Because it's it's if you bet every single fight, there's just no way you're gonna statistically win, you know, consistently.

SPEAKER_04 43:21

You just got yeah, 100%, bro. You just gotta need you gotta pick your spots. And that's again, I I think that's important because there's people that are sports cappers out there or break down UFC and they want to put a pick or try to put a play on every single fight, and it's like, man, over long term, you're not gonna profit money. You know, pick your spots, man. If you don't feel confident, pass on it, dude. There's plenty of fights to bet on. And, you know, when you do pick your spots, if you really want to get cute or get crazy with it, if it's a fighter you love, take the method of victory that they're gonna win in, or take the overunder on rounds with them. You know, like there's so many opportunities. To make money here. So again, you know, fight smart. Now, even our spots, if we pick a spot that we really like and feel like it's a lock, sure it's gonna lose too. But I would rather go out feeling confident about a play than just betting just to bet money on action that I have no idea or feel not confident about. Like losing money when you're truly just guessing and you don't feel confident is I think that feels like crap doing it. Doing it that way.

SPEAKER_02 44:26

I feel like you kind of deserve it if you're just wildly betting on crap.

SPEAKER_04 44:30

Yeah, it that's karma for you, bro. Like karma's gonna get you if you're just you if you're just trying to give the book money.

SPEAKER_02 44:36

You might get lucky occasionally, but let's be honest.

SPEAKER_04 44:38

It's hard to win money from the books. If you're gonna do it, have a little strategy, man. Yeah. Yeah. Because I mean, you guys follow our page. I don't care, but over long term, we we've been profitable. So we even if we're up a tenth of the unit, man, like we always stay around that 500 or higher range. So we can show you better than we can tell you.

SPEAKER_02 44:57

Yeah, because we had a couple of bad weeks, but we're up four units right now.

SPEAKER_04 45:01

Dude, I just put 750 units on ewing. So, dude, I I'm set for the year right now, bro.

SPEAKER_02 45:09

This guy's excited. He's ecstatic.

SPEAKER_04 45:12

No, I'm I I I'm I'm hyped when I pick a guy I feel confident in they come through, man. You I'll be depressed next week, probably.

SPEAKER_02 45:20

Just watch. Yeah, especially when they have good odds, dude.

SPEAKER_04 45:23

It's like Blade Blades is gonna ground and pound out Hoke and humble him, and I'm gonna sit here crying next podcast with my issues. I just don't see that happening. At all. At all, bro. But you never know. Um, but anyways, that's our picks this week, man. And uh, yeah, let's go, man.

SPEAKER_00 45:52

Nah, you're good, you're good. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 46:00

Yeah, and I I feel more confident with this card than the last couple cards. Like you said, definitely a lot more people we recognize. Yeah, bro, I got I was actually paused right there.

SPEAKER_04 46:11

This is a great card compared to other weeks, man. So appreciate this. Tune in to uh Paramount Plus and watch these UFC fights.

SPEAKER_02 46:18

I know we're both kind of on the same side on most of these fights, so just bet smart guys and tune in next week.

SPEAKER_04 46:41

Dude, and for whatever reason, if you've never watched Jerry Prohashka fight, please do me a favor and do that, man. I promise you won't regret it. I would love to win or lose documents. The man is arguably the most entertaining fighter in the entire UFC. Not even for what he says, but for what he does inside the octagon. The man is the absolute unpredictable machine.

SPEAKER_02 47:07

Yeah, I mean, like like how they do the bigger.

SPEAKER_04 47:10

In the future, he definitely will have a crazy documentary, and people are gonna be like, man, who was that guy? And we're gonna be looking back in time and be like, two are, you know, kids in the future were gonna be like, man, that guy was that guy was special.