UFC Burns vs Malott

The conversation covers a detailed analysis and predictions for the upcoming UFC Fight Night, focusing on the fighters' performance and career trajectories. The hosts provide insights into each matchup, discussing the strengths and weaknesses of the fighters and making predictions for the outcomes of the fights. The conversation delves into a detailed analysis of upcoming fights, betting odds, and strategic betting approaches. The hosts discuss fighter comparisons, matchup analysis, parlay strategies, and betting plans. They also recap past fights and share insights on future plans for betting and event attendance.

Takeaways

• Fight analysis and predictions
• Fighter performance and career trajectory Strategic Betting
• Fight Analysis

Chapters

• 00:00 Fight Analysis and Predictions
• 23:43 Fight Analysis and Betting Strategy
• 29:05 Parlay Strategy and Betting Plans Continued
• 43:45 Fight Recap and Future Plans

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Welcome back to Miked Up and Misinformed with your host Lunch Money and Mad Dog. This week we're gonna be giving out our picks for UFC Fight Night Burns versus Mallet um this Saturday, April 18th. You ready to get into this card, Mad Dog? Let's go, dude. You ready? Yeah, man. There's not a lot of uh a lot of action I'm liking in the early prelims, but as we get deeper into the card, there's a couple plays that I like. So it improves a little bit. Alright, dude, we'll get right into it. First up, we have um a banner weight bout. We have Jamie Siraj versus John Giannis. Who do you like in this one?

SPEAKER_01 0:37

Dude, I I think I'm gonna take Jamie for the sub, man. I mean Johnny's more of a boxer and better on his feet, but I you know, I typically am gonna lean towards the grappler in the submission artist, even if it's just you know to win by control time or lay and prey. So I'm I'm taking Jamie on this one. But Jamie did take this fight, I think, short notice.

SPEAKER_00 0:58

Let's see, let's see what uh John's done in the UFC. So his only UFC fight, he got subbed by uh Bashi in the first round. So and you like you like the other you like um Siraj to get a sub here? Yeah, I like Siraj to get the sub here. Yeah, Giannis, I mean, just got just got subbed in his first UFC fight in the first round. So if this if Saraj is good at jujitsu, then I could definitely ride with you on that one. Love it. Next up we got this could be an interesting name to pronounce. We have Mark Vologden versus John Castaneda. I don't know much about Vologden, but I know John Castaneda has been in the UFC for a little while. Um he's been a little underwhelming, to be honest with you. You know, he I don't think he'll ever be a contender, but um he's pretty nice with the boxing, in my opinion.

SPEAKER_01 1:53

He he is good on his feet, so that that there is some promise there, but I think he's I think he's two and three in his last five fights. And the and Mark Volgeden, he's he's definitely more well-rounded fighter. He can KO you, he he can stay standing, but he's also really good on the ground. So same thing. I'm gonna take Mark dude because I just think he's got a few different options, whether he wants to stay standing or take it to the goal. Or I think John's mostly just gonna be stay standing.

SPEAKER_00 2:19

Yeah, I I agree with you here. So I'm looking at Vologdan's record, and his only UFC fight was in the contender series, and he lost in the in a unanimous decision, but he must have put on a show to still get signed. Yeah. Before that, he was getting finishes left and right. I mean, uh in his four fights previously, he had two submissions and two knockouts. So he must be a pretty entertaining fighter. And I'm gonna side with Mark as well, just because I feel like John Castaneda might not be in the UFC much longer. He just, you know, his skill level hasn't really improved. And um, you know, to have that record he has in his last five fights, I think that he's definitely on thin ice here. Yeah, and so you can get Mark Volgden at plus 105. So I like him. And he's an underdog? Yeah. That might be the underdog play of the card, bro.

SPEAKER_01 3:10

Yeah, I like that play a lot.

SPEAKER_00 3:12

Yeah, me too. Next up, we have JJ Aldridge versus Jamie Lynn Horth. What are you thinking about this women's matchup?

SPEAKER_01 3:20

Dude, this this is uh it's interesting because JJ's good on both sides, right? She can stand and she can wrestle and grapple a little bit, but I feel like she is a low-level uh contender. Like I feel like she never grows, she doesn't get any stronger. She just kind of comes out with the same unorthodox game plan. And I think you're gonna see Jamie come out here and get a KO, and it it's crazy to say that. You got Jamie for a finish here? Yeah, I'm taking Jamie on the KO, bro.

SPEAKER_00 3:49

What's interesting to me is I thought Aldridge is more of a UFC vet, but she's 33. She's a little bit older than I thought. Um, I'm on Jamie's side too, man. I feel like she's only lost to the higher echelon of the division. JJ has, you know, I I just feel like she's been pretty underwhelming as well, and um she might have been DFC. She just kind of stalled out. Yeah, a hundred percent. Uh what's the odds on this one? I'm trying to pull a little switch in. If it's remotely close, I'll take Jamie. If she's too big of a favorite, I'll probably just pass.

SPEAKER_01 4:26

Minus 147. That's not bad at all.

SPEAKER_00 4:29

Yeah, and the crowd's gonna be on her side, which means that if it leans to a decision, she might get the nod because you know it's the fights are in Canada and she is a Canadian fighter, so she'll definitely get the crowd cheering her on throughout the fight.

SPEAKER_01 4:43

And the under is at plus three seventy-five for under two and a half. So I like that plus money there too.

SPEAKER_00 4:50

Especially if you like her to find a finish. That's pretty good. Yeah, I like that. Next up, we have I remember this fighter, because whenever you picked her, she's one uh Melissa Crowden versus Daria. Oh my goodness. Um good luck, bro. Zel Zakova. Zelzakova.

SPEAKER_01 5:12

Zelzakova. There's an N in there though, bro. Zelznikova.

SPEAKER_00 5:18

Zelznikova. That might be it. I don't I don't know. Here, I know that Crodon is 35 years old. Uh Daria is only 30 years old. Um, the reach the reach advantage is is about the same, and they're both 5'9. So um, you know, physicality, they're pretty similar, it looks like, in their build.

SPEAKER_01 5:40

Yeah, so this should be an interesting fight, dude, for sure. Um, I do I think that both of these girls will stay standing more, and this should definitely be uh more of a boxing match. But I'm I'm taking Crodeen, dude. I'm taking Melissa here, man. And she might even get another KO. Which again is crazy because normally all the girls' cards, you know, go the distance.

SPEAKER_00 6:00

That's your girl, bro. Whenever you pick her, she wins.

SPEAKER_01 6:02

So minus 145.

SPEAKER_00 6:05

Okay. I'm gonna say that I'm gonna say that if I had to take a play here, I would take um I would take that this fight goes to a decision, but that's probably a pretty heavy favorite. Minus 240, so it's not that bad. Yeah, I'd probably slap that on a parlay. Yeah, that's not bad at all. So and no disrespect to women, but typically in MM women's MMA, it goes to decisions a lot more often than not. I mean, it's actually pretty surprising when uh you find a woman getting a finish.

SPEAKER_03 6:38

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 6:40

And the ones that do get finishes are the ones that you know are some of the all-time greats like uh Manda Ninez, uh, Rhonda Rousey and so forth.

SPEAKER_01 6:48

Now that boxing match is only about a month out, dude. Rousey uh Rousey match? Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 6:54

Yeah, dude. I think I think Rousey's gonna win that one. I figure I feel like she'll probably be the big a big favorite too. She kind of looks like she's on the juice, to be honest with you.

SPEAKER_01 7:04

That's what see that's what I told someone today, dude, at the gym, because he asked and said, Oh, what do you think? And I said, Oh, I think Rousey's the better boxer in general, but she's not gonna be able to do any judo throws or do anything else, you know. So, and once the gloves get put on, it's always a little different, but I do like Rousey. She does look juiced out, dude, a little bit. And then I I saw a thing with her, and she was like, uh, she's like, Oh shit, I just smoked a greeny with Nate Diaz. Um and she's all laughing. I mean, she she yeah, she looked baked, dude. It's weird.

SPEAKER_00 7:37

My opinion, too, about that is you know, if it to be in her shoes right now, I feel like she's not gonna take any type of fight that she feels like is not completely winnable as well. You know, she's not gonna like put her legacy on the line unless you know she feels confident that she's gonna get a win. Yeah, unless she comes back to the UC and fights Amanda again or she fights um uh Kayla Harrison. Like that'd be that'd be really interesting. I think Kayla would probably ragdoll her, but at this point of her career, you know, Ralph was in her prime, it might be a different story, but I don't think Ralph will be back to MMA.

SPEAKER_01 8:14

I don't I can't see that happening.

SPEAKER_00 8:16

Dude, and then seeing Felipe Linz versus Nagano is crazy, dude. Like Linz naturally is like closer to a light heavyweight, so you know that size difference is pretty massive.

SPEAKER_01 8:28

Now I didn't look. Is there a lot of good other names on that card?

SPEAKER_00 8:32

Just the Nate Diaz and Mike Perry. Yeah. Those are the three main fights. And then that one I think I feel like it's gonna go to a decision, bro. I think probably Nate by decision.

SPEAKER_04 8:44

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 8:45

Mike Perry's entertaining, but he fights a little more. I think he's more dis do what?

SPEAKER_01 8:52

He does the bare knuckle boxing. I feel like it'd be so hard to knock him out with the pads on, like without and no offense to Nate, but he doesn't have a lot of power either.

SPEAKER_00 9:01

But I definitely think he's always had a better gas tank and will have a lot more output than Perry.

SPEAKER_01 9:07

Well, that fight's gonna be entertaining, dude. You're you're gonna be laughing at moments in that fight, bro.

SPEAKER_00 9:12

They'll be they'll be uh, yeah. They're both characters, I'll say that. Next up on the UFC card, we have um Gokhan Sircom versus Tanner Bosser. I don't know much about um about Gokhan. Um I know Bosser's been in the UFC for quite some time. Um he he's been pretty mediocre, to be honest, and he's always you know kind of been in between there with weight classes. This one will be a heavyweight, I believe.

SPEAKER_01 9:45

Yeah, and I think Gawkam had a bunch of knockouts, and he's the favorite at minus 150. Again, this is kind of one of those weird things where it's like the veteran versus the new guy coming in, and sometimes these guys get that stage fright and they don't perform as they normally would. So I I kind of feel like just stay away from this one because either guy's got the ability to get a KO here. And like you're saying, Tanner kind of just stalled out, dude, and didn't really, he never really went anywhere.

SPEAKER_00 10:11

Yeah, Tanner's usually been it more so, you know, I think his body frame is more of a light heavyweight at 205, and um Gawkon is a natural heavyweight. This is Gawkon's first um UFC fight. He's fought all his previous fights in Bellator. Here's something that's interesting. His last fight was in 2023, so he has not been active, you know. So I think inactivity can play a big factor. He's 35 years old, so in my opinion, they're just trying to get some new faces in the heavyweight division. Yeah, this might this might play out closer than what people think, but um, I'm gonna take the decision here.

SPEAKER_01 10:49

Alright, I like it, dude. The over two and a half is minus 155.

SPEAKER_00 10:54

Okay, yeah, I I think that because I could see it going to a split decision. Bosser, in my opinion, doesn't have a lot of knockout power, and GaCon has had uh plenty of decisions through both.

SPEAKER_01 11:05

It just yeah, and then plus the three years off, it's just too scary. I I would say stay away, but the over is probably a good man. I like that.

SPEAKER_00 11:12

I think that's why I like the over too, because you know, Boston hasn't been real active the last few years in the UFC either. So they both might fight a little bit timid and more defensive until they find that flow state. And by the time they find that flow state, it might be later to the second, and then you're cruising and the third to a decision. Exactly. It's over at that point. I'm I'll probably take the over on a parlay. Next up, dude, I don't know. I know I've seen Robert Valentin fight a little bit, but I have not seen Julian LeBlanc. I'm gonna look up his record right now. Yeah, we're gonna go.

SPEAKER_01 11:44

So I think Julian's new. I think it's his first UFC. And Valentine's lost all three of his. So it Julian was new, and then Robert Valentine, I he lost all three of his fights in the UFC. So this is a stay away. I mean, if you wanted to lay money on the new guy and go with the underdog at plus 125 for a crazy degenerate bet, but this is a fight you just stay away from.

SPEAKER_00 12:12

Bro, this fight's giving uh which one of you want to keep the job in the UFC. Like they're pretty much saying, hey Leblanc, do you want Valentine's spot? Because if he doesn't win, he's out of here.

SPEAKER_01 12:23

Yeah, whoever wins the game.

SPEAKER_00 12:25

One guy will be still signed and one guy will be released after this.

SPEAKER_01 12:28

I just feel like Valentine's already lost all three, so unless he wins in a crazy fashion, he's he's off the list.

SPEAKER_00 12:34

He probably momentum and confidence pretty often. Bro, if you've lost three in a row, like your confidence has got to be pretty low. You're you know, they would never admit it, but they're probably feeling like you know, Robert's feeling like he's expecting to lose at this point because three in a row is big time for, especially in the in the fight game. Let me see how he's lost too. And the last and the other guy has had three finishes in his wins. And I know he's from a pretty weak league. You know, I've I've never heard of it, but um, I still think that that's m I would rather be on that side than a guy that's in his last three got knocked out twice, too.

SPEAKER_01 13:14

Yeah, so dog, dog or pass.

SPEAKER_00 13:16

Yeah. What who is the dog in this one?

SPEAKER_01 13:19

Julian at plus one thirty-five.

SPEAKER_00 13:22

Yeah, I'm taking that. I'm taking that.

SPEAKER_01 13:24

Yeah, plus one twenty-five. There's no value Valentine to be hard to bet on him on a losing streak. They have the under two and a half at minus one sixty-five. And I again I just I don't know. I stay away from this one, dude. It scares me all the way.

SPEAKER_00 13:38

Yeah, I wouldn't play an over-under. I'd just take LeBlanc LeBlanc for the value for sure. Next up in the featherweight um division, we have Dennis Bazooka Bazooka versus Ma Marcio Barbosa. Who do you like in this one, man? I'm not too familiar with either one of these guys.

SPEAKER_01 13:59

Dude, I don't know. Yeah, I don't know much about either of these guys. But Mauricio had 14 KOs out of his 17 wins. Then Bazookia did fight a couple of good people.

SPEAKER_00 14:09

Yeah, so he's lost to Sean Woodson, Jamal Emers, he beat um, and then he lost to Marshall. So he's got a big thing.

SPEAKER_01 14:18

So he loses to people that like to stand up and box, and this guy's knocked out 14 people. Yeah, that's scary. Yeah, Barbosa is a minus 5'10 for a reason. He's he's minus 5'10. Minus 5'10. He's the biggest favorite of this.

SPEAKER_00 14:33

Yeah, he he's just coming off a knockout win on Dana White's contender series. Dude, Mar Barbosa to the bank in this one, bro. I'm I'm I'm gonna take that on the parlay for sure.

SPEAKER_01 14:43

Yeah, that's a parlay piece for sure. I think it probably that's probably best to take him for the KO. That's what he's known for.

SPEAKER_00 14:49

So you know he's gonna come out hungry too. He's not making a lot of money, you would assume, and he needs that finish bonus bonus. And you know, with him just coming off the contender series to get $100,000 uh for a fit performance of the night would be a pretty sweet um addition to his finances.

SPEAKER_01 15:07

14 KOs over 19 fights total, that's that's impressive.

SPEAKER_00 15:12

Yeah, and that guy's got momentum. I'm taking Marcio all day, dude. I I would probably take him up to minus 600, to be honest.

SPEAKER_01 15:21

I was surprised it wasn't more after I looked at some of his stats. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 15:26

Um next up, we have uh Tiago Moises. He's been the UFC for a long time versus Gage Young. What's odds on this one?

SPEAKER_01 15:34

Uh Gage Young's at minus 145, and then Tiago's at plus 125. But Tiago is. Yep, and I think Tiago's just, you know, fading out, dude. So this is this is kind of a you know, give me match, give this guy some name recognition, try to start pushing him up the ranks. So I, you know, look look for Gage Young here, especially at the 145. I love the odds there.

SPEAKER_00 16:03

I like Gage Young. Uh, I think Moises is dangerous for him, but because Gage, he lost in his, he just doesn't have any convincing wins to me. Like he's had, let me see, I think three UFC fights. Three UFC fights. He's lost two of them. Um, and then he's beat uh Mashati. I can't I have a hard time pronouncing his name, but I I don't trust it. I don't trust him in this matchup, bro. I'm gonna stay away. Alright, I don't mind. Um, next up we have Karine Silva versus Jasmine, Juiz Divicius. Um I'm I'm I don't know what the odds are, but I'm definitely taking Jasmine here.

SPEAKER_01 16:42

Oh, you have to, dude. Jasmine's definitely the better competitor here. Minus 310, so that that's the second leg of the parlay right there.

SPEAKER_00 16:49

Yeah, bro. She's she's a real contender, in my opinion. You know, I know she's pretty young. Let's see how old she is. Oh my god, she's 37 years old.

SPEAKER_01 17:00

I feel like she's older, bro. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 17:01

I feel like she was I feel like she was in her early 30s. Holy moly. I'm still gonna take I feel so dumb for say I must have been thinking about another fighter, but I do like Jasmine. She's a judovicius. Um, I feel like she's a higher caliber fighter and should be um fighting higher in the rankings for sure.

SPEAKER_01 17:18

Yeah. Now Karina does have some jujitsu and subbing ability, so I would say she's you know, she is live, but definitely Jasmine, especially at minus 310.

SPEAKER_00 17:28

I think the value's still on her. And she's gonna be the hometown favorite. She's a Canadian herself, so the crowd will definitely be behind her in this matchup. Alright, next up we have Jai Herbert versus Mondell Nalo.

SPEAKER_01 17:43

Alright, it's getting a little better. It's getting a little better.

SPEAKER_00 17:46

Yeah, this one will be entertaining. Um Nalo just came off of the contender series with a knockout in the first round. So I feel like this guy's gonna come out pretty dangerous here. He's a guy that wins by finish. In his last five fights, um, only one in that only one has been on the contender series. Everything else has been outside the UFC. But last five fights, two subs and three knockouts, dude. This guy is not to be messed with in the ring. Right? You like him? I love I love him in this matchup. Jai Herbert is dangerous. He's the UFC veteran he's been in for a long time. Uh, he actually had um Ilya Tapuria wall but wobbled when Tapuria was up and coming. Um and Tapuria had you know regained his consciousness and ended up uh getting Herbert out of there. But I like Mandel Nalo in this one a lot. What's the odds here?

SPEAKER_01 18:37

Yeah, I like I like Nalo minus 172. I really love the under here, under two and a half and minus 155. I think that's the value, dude, because I think either one of these guys could get a KO.

SPEAKER_00 18:49

Yeah, I like Nalo a lot, bro. That's one of my that's I promise that'll be on my parallel.

SPEAKER_01 18:55

Yeah, Nalo minus 172. That's a great piece.

SPEAKER_00 18:58

Let's get it. Alright, so now finally, dude, we're I I know a lot about these next two matchups. So we got um for the co-man event, Kyler Phillips versus Charles Jordan. Um, this is a great bantamweight matchup, dude. Both guys like to keep it on the feet. Um, Kyler Phillips is super explosive. Um, I feel like he gets he he has a gas tank issue. He kind of gases out after the first round and a half to two rounds. Jordan does have the gas tank, but he doesn't have a lot of power in his hands. He's primarily a kicker, and I don't know how he's gonna fare versus Kyler in this matchup. I feel like Kyler is so much more diverse, and the only way Charles wins is if um, you know, he he gets out of that first round and then takes over in the second and third for a decision win. But I'm taking Kyler here, bro. I think he could get a decision win or knock out Charles.

SPEAKER_01 19:53

Oh shit. This guy, he's crazy. I'm taking Jordan here, dude. I think he's an outperformer boy. I think that's what's gonna happen.

SPEAKER_04 20:00

I think you just said five gotta air seven or two, bro.

SPEAKER_01 20:05

He don't even have to he don't even have to knock him out. He just gotta outbox him and outkick him.

SPEAKER_00 20:10

I think you're taking Jordan in this matchup.

SPEAKER_01 20:12

I'm taking Jordan, dude, because I think his gas tank is better. I think he can outperform him on the feet and on the ground.

SPEAKER_00 20:21

Dang, bro. Let me see. Let me see the age difference here.

SPEAKER_01 20:25

It's almost a pick em Jordan's.

SPEAKER_00 20:27

Phillips is 30 years old and Jordan's 30 years old. Okay, so same age. Um reach advantage goes to Phillips. He has a three-inch reach advantage. Um, they're about the same height. Yeah, dude, I I feel pretty confident taking Kyler Phillips. I'm trying to decide if I want to what's the odds on that?

SPEAKER_01 20:44

Phillips at plus one seventeen, Jordan at minus one thirty-eight. So basically, it's gonna be a close fight. It's gonna be a close fight, yeah. I think it goes to the decision either way. Honestly.

SPEAKER_00 20:55

Yeah, I think if it if anybody gets the finish, Kyler gets it, but um, yeah, it's I feel like it's a high probability that it'll go to a decision.

SPEAKER_01 21:04

Yeah, it's over two and a half minus one ninety.

SPEAKER_03 21:07

Okay.

SPEAKER_00 21:09

Alright, well, that's the first one that we're really split on. Yeah, I'm standing on the Kyler side for sure, dude. I I I feel like he's underperformed in the UFC too, man. Like, I feel like Kyler should be like top eight, but for whatever reason, like I don't know if he just doesn't take the game seriously, because he's so talented, dude. Like, when it I've seen like glimpses of greatness from him, but he seems like he's kind of uh underwhelmed the fan base a little bit.

SPEAKER_01 21:34

Yeah, exactly, dude. I he just doesn't he doesn't always fight the same. Sometimes he comes out more energetic and his looks better, looks healthier. Other times he comes out and just looks like he's almost just shown up for work.

SPEAKER_00 21:46

And with Jordan, I feel like um I feel like he's only improved his time got has gone on in the sport with the UFC. Um Kyler, I feel like he has all the talent in the world, and Charles, I don't feel like is as talented, but he's gotten better. Better and better throughout each of his fights. No, I think he's ceiling guys skill.

SPEAKER_01 22:05

Yeah, he's still he's got he's growing, so I think he's got room for improvement. Now I don't know if he's necessarily belt, you know, contender aspect, but I could see him being, you know, ranked to the top ten for a while.

SPEAKER_00 22:17

Yeah. And they fight Banamweight, dude. Just imagine if they had to see uh Marab or Umar Nirmaga Madev. They those wrestlers would be absolute nightmares for these guys. Alright, dude. Now we got the main event of the evening. Um, we have Mike Mullot versus Gilbert Burns. Man, this is it's kind of sad because Mike Mallet is still like up and coming, and he hasn't peaked yet or hit his ceiling. And Gilbert Burns is, you know, way past his prime at this point. In my opinion, he's more of a prize fighter. You know, just trying to get a couple more big checks before retiring. If Gilbert Burns was in his prime, this would be such a banger matchup, and it would be a lot it would play out a lot closer than I think it will now.

SPEAKER_01 23:08

Yeah, a hundred percent. I think Burns lost the last four fights in a row. I mean, Gilbert Burns has been on a mass decline. He's just like you said, he's just collecting checks. They're using this to give Mike Mallet, you know, some name recognition, start seeing that, oh, he's fighting guys that you know you recognize and say, oh, he's moving up the ranks. This is this is a layup for Mike here, man.

SPEAKER_00 23:30

And you know what stinks? Gilbert has fought the best of the best, bro. Like in his last four, his last four fights that were all losses, Bilal Muhammad had the belt, Jack Della Maddalena had the belt, Sean Brady, uh title contender, like he's right on he's right outside the contenders right now. And then uh Morales is you know, might be fighting for the belt pretty soon. So Burns has only fought dogs, dude. And then Mallet, let's see. I know let me see who his best win has been over. Yeah, he his resume isn't near as nice. He's beaten Kevin Holland and Charles Radke in his last two fights, but the youth is on his side. He's 34 years old, he's five years younger than Burns. And I like I said, I still feel like he doesn't have near as many UFC fight miles on the tank as Gilbert. Gilbert's um he's been super durable throughout his career, but um, he has so much more miles on the tank.

SPEAKER_01 24:33

Oh, the double. Gilbert's hit at 31 fights, and Mallet's got, what, 16? I mean, that's crazy.

SPEAKER_00 24:40

And if it's standing, I feel like it's pretty close. I'd probably edge Mallet, but on the ground, it could get pretty interesting because Gilbert's only way of winning this fight, in my opinion, is pulling off a submission. He's excellent at jujitsu, but Mike Mallet is terrific at wrestling. So the way that I'm seeing this matchup over five rounds is Mallet winning on control time because as Gilbert's trying to pull off submissions, that tells me he'll probably be on his back for the most part of the fight if it does go to the ground. And Mallet will just be on top gaining control time. And then if it's standing, it might play out a little closer. I think this is only a three-round fight today this time. Oh, really? That I need to look that up because usually main events are five rounds. So maybe if they agreed to three rounds, maybe that might be it.

SPEAKER_03 25:28

Which tells me someone's conditioning is not great.

SPEAKER_00 25:32

Yeah, that's that that'll be a big difference if it's only a three-round win. But I'm gonna take Mallet and a decision win here, man.

SPEAKER_01 25:40

Yeah, so Mallet at minus two ninety, so same. You can put him on as a third leg of the parlay, or you know, it's an easy hedge. It's an easy hedge, yeah. Take Gilbert at plus two forty for the hedge. Um, so now that it's Thursday, we actually do have a so Gilbert Burns by decision. They have it at plus a thousand. Oh, you want to no, no, sorry. You want a Mike. I'm like, what?

SPEAKER_00 26:03

That's still a crazy payout for Gilbert Burns.

SPEAKER_01 26:06

So it's even crazy. Mike Mallet plus 550 for decision.

SPEAKER_00 26:09

For decision?

SPEAKER_01 26:10

Yeah, that's crazy to me.

SPEAKER_00 26:12

That's my I'm playing that all day.

SPEAKER_01 26:14

That's nuts, dude. I'm gonna put I'm gonna put uh let's do a half unit on that. I like that.

SPEAKER_00 26:18

Yeah, I like that a lot, bro. That's crazy.

SPEAKER_03 26:22

Yeah, I respect Burns too much to get finished. Yeah, that's how I feel. I don't know if Mal's got that much props, but dude, I still feel so dumb.

SPEAKER_00 26:34

I hate when I say something that is like way off. Like Jasmine, I said that she is a younger fighter at 37.

SPEAKER_01 26:41

She does look younger, though.

SPEAKER_00 26:44

We always make mistakes, but I feel so dumb saying that. That takes all my credibility for knowing that.

SPEAKER_01 26:52

They've been five rounds for a long time, but so they some that tells me someone's conditioning is not great. Honestly. If they if if one of them said uh, you know, I only want to do three rounds, which I think would probably be Burns or his camp, and then Mallet's like, all right, I'll just take it.

SPEAKER_00 27:05

But that makes the decision even crazier. The the plus 500 over three rounds. That's crazy. I even over five rounds, I'd still take Mallet decision.

SPEAKER_01 27:13

That's they have the under over two and a half at basically a pick'em.

SPEAKER_00 27:18

Yeah, that's that's nuts, bro. Hey, I got some good plays for this card. I think we're gonna we got there's some good money spots here.

SPEAKER_01 27:26

Alright, so dude, now one of the fights got canceled, which was part of my Martingale. So I'm not gonna say what it is, and I'm gonna wait and I'll post it on the Instagram.

SPEAKER_00 27:36

Okay, no problem.

SPEAKER_01 27:39

We usually create a couple plays. That fight got pulled. I don't know why it got pulled.

SPEAKER_02 27:48

I didn't look, but I just saw they pulled it.

SPEAKER_01 27:55

Alright, so my like Sherlock parlay, I'm doing this, dude. I'm taking Jasmine and Barbosa and then minus 172. Okay. So one unit pays a little more than half. Okay. What are you doing? And then like I said, I'll post my Marn Gale on the other thing. I have to find I just have to figure out which one I want to do for the other one leg. Because I had Alan, I got Jamie Lynn and Melissa.

SPEAKER_00 28:21

Okay. Yeah, just let me know what you end up doing for the last leg on that.

SPEAKER_01 28:26

They pulled Alan, so I gotta figure out one. I gotta do another one.

SPEAKER_00 28:31

Alright, so I'm taking Marcio Barbosa for leg one. Yep.

SPEAKER_02 28:38

Nala for leg two. And uh Mallet for leg three.

SPEAKER_00 28:48

That's I'm gonna assume that's like plus one thirty.

SPEAKER_01 28:50

What was the second one you think?

SPEAKER_00 28:53

Um Mandela Nalo.

SPEAKER_02 28:56

Going against Herbert. Dude, it's weird right now.

SPEAKER_01 29:06

Oh, here, I'm not looking far enough down, I'm sorry. Alright. Nalo, what was the third one now? Mallet?

SPEAKER_00 29:12

Nalo, Barbosa, and uh Mallet.

SPEAKER_01 29:14

Yeah. Alright, I like it, dude. That seems like a good one. Oh, plus 154. Oh, that's nice. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 29:22

I got it, I got a crazy one, dude. It's gonna be nuts, bro.

SPEAKER_01 29:26

Alright, let's go nuts here. Who do you like?

SPEAKER_02 29:29

Alright. So we're gonna take um We're gonna take LeBlanc. We're gonna take it.

SPEAKER_00 30:04

And then Mike Mellon my decision.

SPEAKER_01 30:08

Oh, this is gonna be crazy.

SPEAKER_02 30:18

Plus fifty-nine oh three, so basically plus six thousand. Oh crazy this guy.

SPEAKER_01 30:26

Alright, let's do a four-quarter unit. So we're we're up four units. So let's do a four-a quarter unit.

SPEAKER_00 30:32

Bro, maybe maybe like a tenth of a unit, because that's a crazy one.

SPEAKER_01 30:36

It's crazy. We're up, so let's do it, dude. I'm doing it. Alright, yeah, let's do it.

SPEAKER_00 30:42

I'm scared about you. If you want, you can I I've I I I hate doing plays with you that like we don't agree on. So if you want, we could change, we could change how the club you took you put in.

SPEAKER_01 30:54

I already sent it.

SPEAKER_00 30:55

It's it's all right, alright, bet, bet, bet.

SPEAKER_01 30:58

No backsees now, bro. Alright. No, I think that's good, dude. I think we're I think we got a good one going. Yeah, I mean, this card's not that juicy at all. By no means. It's not crazy, but I think there is some value here, at least. I think even last week's card, there was some good value. We did well, dude. So I can't.

SPEAKER_00 31:17

Yeah, dude, honestly, for for a personal play, like I'm gonna put those two parlays in for sure, but I'm thinking about putting putting a unit on Mike Mallet by decision. If that's plus 500, I think there's a ton of value there, bro. Because Burns Burns is hard to finish, and Burns has only fought the best of the best.

SPEAKER_01 31:37

Yeah, yeah. I mean, I and I could see them both of them kind of getting, you know, not feeling each other on the feet, and then Mallet wrestling, and Burns is trying to submit and just back and forth non-stop.

SPEAKER_00 31:47

I could see Burns getting like uh opportunities to win this fight here, but Mallet to win a close one. I'm just I'm thinking unanimous or split decision win for Mallet, but I just I'm not seeing a finish.

SPEAKER_01 32:00

No, those odds at plus 550 are juicy.

SPEAKER_00 32:03

Yeah, yeah, those are nice, bro. I got a single bet that one.

SPEAKER_01 32:06

Alright, well, I'd say that was good, dude. We got some stuff in.

SPEAKER_00 32:10

Sweet. Yeah, hopefully we'll get some uh better cards in the next couple weeks. That last one is pretty nice, bro. That um just to recap on that Jerry Olberg fight, um, I'm sure everybody that's watching UFC saw that um Jerry really choked that title shot up, especially having you know the president there being a Miami. That was the easiest, easiest title title fight win of his life, and he threw it away.

SPEAKER_01 32:37

He said mercy, dude. He felt mercy and couldn't do it.

SPEAKER_00 32:40

Bro, and I know that's like controversial, but dude, he really did show mercy in there. Like I saw him multiple times putting his hands up, looking down at his leg. Like, if that would have went to the end of the, you know, if the bell would have rang, they probably would have called the fight off. I mean, Ulbert couldn't even walk on that knee.

SPEAKER_01 32:56

You see him shoot, he tried to throw like a stiff right hand and freaking basically fell on his back.

SPEAKER_00 33:02

Yeah, I I I didn't get it. I'm like, Jury, keep kicking that. I would just keep just throwing kick service to the fight. But I don't know, man. That was a big lesson he learned. And then I will say too, bro, I I know uh I said on the podcast and I put it on all my plays, but Josh Hoket, did he really walk the walk, man?

SPEAKER_01 33:23

He backed up all that track talking.

SPEAKER_00 33:30

Yeah, that was a scary fight, bro. Like, for how confident I was in picking him, I was sweating watching that fight, bro.

SPEAKER_01 33:38

He's crazy. He's not fighting intelligently at all. He's out there just kind of just brawling, bro.

SPEAKER_00 33:44

Yeah. For me, you know, now that that Derek Lewis fight got announced, I'm thinking, man, he's gotta be careful with Lewis because Hoket is really undersized for a heavyweight. Like he's naturally a middleweight or a light heavyweight at max, but he knows how weak the heavyweight division is, and he has the wrestling factor, which a lot of heavyweights don't have. So what's scary for the Lewis fight is he needs to take Derek down immediately, and then he might find a finish pretty fast. But if he doesn't take Derek down, Derek will light him up like a Christmas tree, bro. Because if for how many shots Blades got off on Hoket, if you let Derek Lewis throw that many shots, he would have his lights would have been put out.

SPEAKER_01 34:25

Yeah, yeah, I think Lewis by KO. I don't care what the odds are. Yeah, that's definitely worth it. It was just too chaotic, man. But on our massive parlay, our five layer Osmott was the only one that buffed it up, dude. And we had to do that.

SPEAKER_00 34:41

Well, that was so frustrating, bro. Like right. I I think I I gotta look at the text messages, but I think I texted you that day and I was like, bro, I just feel weird about that asthmatic.

SPEAKER_01 34:50

Now that you say that, you did. You did say that, dude.

SPEAKER_00 34:54

I just think when I went to put my plays in the dev, I was like, man, I'm just feeling a little off about it, you know? Because I was thinking, I'm like, bro, and again, I could have been way wrong because we picked Azmet on the podcast, but I like Saturday morning. I woke up and I'm like, dang, bro, like Paulo, right? Paulo's only fought the best fighters, he's fighting champions, and the only fight he's really looked bad in was that Adasanya title fight, and he said he was messed up on wine the night before, and now I believe him, bro.

SPEAKER_01 35:23

Exactly. So, what I'm gonna say is we had six, in a sense, different plays, and every play was under two, you know, minus 200. So we had Tatiana at minus 160, Rey at minus 140, Hokid at plus 117. Azma was the one that messed us up of the biggest 198. Olberg at minus 190, and then we had the Kevin Hall and Randy Brown over two and a half at minus 150. Bro, that would have paid out crazy, huh? Yeah, that's nuts, dude. So literally, we both of our plays lost because of Osma, and otherwise, even if you took every one of our bets individually, you would have stacked it up.

SPEAKER_00 35:59

100%. I think we put a straight bet on Hoket too as a slide dog, so that made up for a little bit.

SPEAKER_01 36:05

Yeah, we did we did we did two units and Hoket at plus one seventeen, so that helped.

SPEAKER_00 36:11

Yeah, they that got us back. And look, and when we do those parlays, typically we're only putting like a quarter or a half unit, so yeah, we did we didn't have a lot of things.

SPEAKER_01 36:25

We were so close, dude. Yeah. So I mean that, and even again, even if you just bet all those bets straight up, you would have been you've been sitting pretty.

SPEAKER_00 36:32

Bro, if this six leger that we put in for this weekend, if if um Kyler Phillips is the reason we lose that, and you and I know you picked Jordan, I'm gonna be sick to my stomach, bro.

SPEAKER_01 36:44

It happens, you know. What are you gonna do, man? But no, I think it but the problem is because we're up right now, we're playing kind of recklessly. I wouldn't say recklessly, we're just trying to use their money to profit faster, right?

SPEAKER_00 36:57

Yeah, I mean, the I think the two parlays that we each gave were you know, we took pretty good favorites. So I think those will cover us this week and give us a little bit of profit if we do end up losing the parlays. So we still made a quarter unit, yeah, from last time. Yeah. So what I like doing is just like this week, you know, we took a couple heavy favorites in a parlay and then we did a wild one. But you know, it's like last week we took Hoke. A couple weeks before that, we took Jillian Robertson. Like, there's certain fighters that I'm like, and so and so do you with the Martingale method, but it's like, man, that's where I want to put all my juice on. I'd rather go out on my sword feeling really confident about a straight bet than going all in on the parlays every week. Because especially if you can get a pick you like it, plus money or relatively close to that, then why not take a swing at the fences with it?

SPEAKER_01 37:52

Yeah, exactly. Yeah, especially, I mean, you should always be able to find just one or two good plays throughout the week, right? You don't have to be going crazy and doing 10 plays every day and 20 leg parlays.

SPEAKER_00 38:02

It's just so even in this week for me, I it might be that mallet by decision, like knowing that it's plus dude, even if you gave me plus 300 on that, I'm taking that's probably my most popular play right now. And that's it's a super risky play because you're risk, you know, it's like really a one in eight chance because you got to fear the decisions on either side, knockouts on either side, submissions. What's that? A one out of six chance?

SPEAKER_01 38:27

Yeah, essentially, but I mean there's still different ways to one doctor stoppage, eye pokes, nut kicks. It's like so many factors have to go into place to uh that still make it a decision.

SPEAKER_00 38:39

Yeah. I'm gonna just hope that he just lays on top of Burns the whole fight and Burns doesn't get a submission off.

SPEAKER_01 38:46

He could, because that's what I'm saying. If they like if either one of them are getting picked apart on the feet, they're gonna try to shoot, right? And I don't think Mallet's good enough for jujitsu, so he's just gonna wrestle them and pin him down. And then Gilbert's just gonna lay there and accept the check, you know?

SPEAKER_00 39:00

Yeah. Dude, if Burns was like 32 years old, this would be such a different fight.

SPEAKER_01 39:05

Yeah, this would be crazy. I mean, Burns was wild in his days, dude. I mean, he could like you said, he could submit practically anybody. He was some of the best grappling.

SPEAKER_00 39:13

I feel like his last best fight was probably versus Pamza Shemaev, because that was a pretty close decision win for Shamay. But after that, he really declined, unfortunately. But that's you know what? Uh Father Time's a serious thing, especially in the sport of the UFC.

SPEAKER_01 39:30

Yeah, I mean, these guys are putting on some serious miles. And what we see is like 15 or 25 minutes. We don't see the hours of putting in days for weeks and months beforehand, you know? Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 39:42

Dude, and that you UFC White House card, I already have my parlay set out, man. I'm ready to make some.

SPEAKER_01 39:48

He's already picked it apart. Look at this guy.

SPEAKER_00 39:50

Dude, I got it ready to go. I can tell you right now I'm taking Pereira as the last leg. Uh or sorry, I'm gonna take Pereira. No, he that's the co-main, my bad. Pereira, I'm taking Taporia, and I'm taking uh Roofy over Chandler. That's my three legger.

SPEAKER_03 40:07

Yeah, this guy. Let me see if I can pull the car real quick.

SPEAKER_00 40:10

But Taporia's like a minus 800 right now, bro.

SPEAKER_03 40:13

It's actually crazy. So Taporia seemed to come back kind of quick too, right?

SPEAKER_01 40:21

But I mean, obviously for this card you kind of have to. Yeah, I mean, I Torporia against Gagey, I probably would lean towards Taporia. Gagey's crazy though.

SPEAKER_00 40:29

Yeah, I just think he's just out of his prime, too. You know, his win over Patty was awesome, but I think that that that really just showed that both fighters are much lower levels below Taporia. It really should be Armonsarukian versus Taporia, in my opinion.

SPEAKER_01 40:46

This this fight is so crazy. And now we got the Hokin and Lewis fight, it's already posted.

SPEAKER_00 40:52

Yeah, some bangers, dude. I love Roofy to knock out Shanta though, man. I think Roofy's gonna send him to the Shadow Realm. Yeah, I agree with that, dude.

SPEAKER_01 41:05

What I mean, what about O'Malley?

SPEAKER_00 41:08

Versus Zaebi. Dude, honestly, in my opinion, I think Zaebe is a dangerous I think it's more dangerous underdog, because you know that O'Malley's gonna be pretty heavily favored, especially come fight night.

SPEAKER_01 41:23

Well, that's probably true.

SPEAKER_00 41:25

What's the odds right now?

SPEAKER_01 41:27

I don't know.

SPEAKER_00 41:27

I wasn't looking up the odds, I was just looking up the uh Zaebi's a little bit older, but I feel like he doesn't have as much miles on the tank as his age, and he's a pretty good wrestler. So if he take if he's able to take O'Malley down, then I think I definitely think he could win that fight in a decision. And that would mess up all the everybody's parlays, because I feel like everybody's gonna have O'Malley in their parlays. So Zaebi would be the underdog play of the card for me. Because the only ones that are gonna play underdogs aside from him, the most popular underdog picks will be Gecy by knockout, and um um a lot of people are gonna these odds are insane, dude.

SPEAKER_01 42:12

So they have Alex against Gain, that's basically a pick'em. Bo Nickel at minus 330, Lopez minus 180, Taporia, minus 585, and Roofy at minus 550, Sean O'Malley minus 360.

SPEAKER_00 42:26

Yeah, that's I don't I don't agree with those odds. Who's nickel fighting again? Uh Bo Nickel, Kyle Doxon. Yeah, that's I feel like both Bo Nickel's a lock. He if he's fights if he fights intelligently and just immediately takes down Dawkins, that's an easy win.

SPEAKER_01 42:45

I think Dawkins, I don't know, it was weird because he kind of like primed out in two fights.

SPEAKER_00 42:51

He's a good fighter, man. I just feel like you know, he was in the UFC for a while, he took a break, and he came back and he fought pretty well. But I feel like Bo Nichols is a serious contender. His nickel's uh loss to DeRitter, I think was just one of those stepping stones that Nickel needed to be humbled and to train harder in the gym. But I still feel like he's cream of the crop and definitely gonna get a title shot at some point.

SPEAKER_01 43:17

Use his wrestling against Dawkus. Don't don't stand and blow.

SPEAKER_00 43:21

Like DeRitter, he should have just taken De Ritter down immediately, but he played around too much. I think he learned his lessons. I think exactly. So all right, guys, those are our picks for this UFC card. Um, feel free to tell us, especially that big parlay, that plus fifty nine hundred. If that hits, man, I might uh get me a nice hotel stay this weekend or something.

SPEAKER_01 43:45

Yeah, lunch money's going to LA for a concert. Let's go.

SPEAKER_00 43:49

Yeah, hopefully, uh hopefully it's the fights go good. If the uh fights to go bad, I might be at the concert set, and I don't want to.

SPEAKER_01 43:57

I think I come back out to you in three weeks, dude.

unknown 44:00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 44:00

Oh, you come back out of Vegas soon?

SPEAKER_01 44:02

Yeah, I think we're gonna fly out this time, but we're gonna come the 7th through the 10th for Mother's Day weekend.

SPEAKER_00 44:07

Oh, let's go. Sweet, dude.

SPEAKER_01 44:09

I I assume you'll be there because it's almost school end, right?

SPEAKER_00 44:12

Yeah, I'll be here for sure. Hell yeah. Alright, we'll have to do something. We'll figure it out, dude. Yeah, 100%. I'll take you to a good comedy show. No, you're not allowed, bro.

SPEAKER_01 44:25

Alright, guys. Be safe. Don't do anything crazy. Alright. Yep, mic's up and misinformed out. Boom.