Mic'd Up and Misinformed
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Mic'd Up and Misinformed
UFC 328
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Join us as we break down the highly anticipated UFC 328 fight card featuring Chamei vs Strickland! 🥊
In this episode, we dive deep into the matchups, predictions, and strategies for each fight. From the prelims to the main event, we cover it all!
Key takeaways:
- Chamei vs Strickland: Who will come out on top?
- Early prelims analysis: Ochoa vs Carpenter
- Key fighters to watch: Kopilov, Sabatini, and more!
What's your biggest challenge with UFC betting? Drop it in the comments!
Subscribe for weekly fight breakdowns and predictions!
#UFC328 #MMA #FightNight
Fortunately, get my welcome back to Miked Up and Misinformed with your host Mad Dog of Lunch Money. Today we're gonna break down and give our best pick top for the Chamai vs. Strickland UFC 3-28. Let's freaking go, dude. This might be the best card of the year, Mad Dog.
SPEAKER_00This is one of the best cards I've seen in a while, dude. It's so stacked. Even from the early prelims, it's just stacked up.
SPEAKER_02Absolute bangers. And you know it's gonna be a serious main event when the two fighters aren't even doing faceoffs the week of. They don't even want those fighters near each other right now.
SPEAKER_00They're afraid, dude. They're afraid to have in the same room because who knows who's gonna blip off and who's gonna jump who. Yeah, they just gotta let them wait till they get the cage. Will jump anybody, right? It's like it's not just Shemayev, it's his whole corner.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, 100%. Shamayev's got a whole gang of like 30 people with him. It's over here just with his cornerman and his coach. Yeah, you know, they're keeping them at separate hotels right now. It's some real bad blood, man. And I like this. I feel like the UFC needs it. We've talked, you know, at the end of last year and beginning of this year, uh, is of the UFC kind of declining and not having as strong of rivalries. Strickland and Shemaev is just what we needed right now.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, this is good. This is good timing. I like this matchup a lot. It's gonna be it's gonna be crazy.
SPEAKER_02It's gonna be fireworks, bro. All right, so we'll start with the prelims here. We got a lot of great fights. Um, the first fight of the night is Jose Ochoa versus Clayton Carpenter. Uh, who do you like in this one?
SPEAKER_00So I didn't do as much stuff as I normally do. I'm leaning towards Jose Ochoa here. Uh, I feel like Carpenter's had kind of a hard time get off in his his latest fights, dude. So I'm I'm leaning towards Jose. I don't have a big pick on either one, so you could talk me to either direction here.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I'm taking Ochoa here, but uh it's a pass for me. I'm not I think achoa's gonna win, but I'm not betting this one personally. I feel like it's gonna come out a little closer than what people expect.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, exactly. Yep. Yeah, this is weird fights.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, it that's a tough one to call, bro. Like, I don't feel if Carpenter wins, I would not be surprised, but I'm definitely leaning on the uh Choa side.
SPEAKER_00Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Next up, we have um De Jordan Santos versus Man, this is a hard name to pronounce. Uh the Singer Susurkeyov. Um, I got Surkeyov. I know he's a massive favorite, he's never lost in the UFC. Um, I'm gonna pass on this fight just because the odds are so crazy. And I don't think Santos is a good enough underdog to take in the spot. I'm gonna just only pass here.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, minus 750. There's just not a lot of value here. And typically when you see these huge favorites on the on the early prelims, it still could kind of go either way, dude. It's like anything could happen. Obviously, they're trying to promote this guy and push him in the right direction, start getting his fan base going. But this this is one of those like slippery fights. It's like one thing bad could happen and it goes the wrong direction. So just stay away.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. If you're gonna take Susurakov, which is a huge favors favorite, take him by finish. You know, the way the odds are reflecting, he should be a you know, a contender for how for how highly um favored he is odds wise.
SPEAKER_00Well, and it's weird because if you go and look, they have him. I noticed some of them had him up. This one doesn't have all of them up, but they have him by like KO or points at minus 110, so there's pretty good odds there. You get him for points or the other guy by submission at plus 185. So I noticed that like some of them were kind of mixed up. So it's it's still like even if you go and look, it's not like crazy blowout on to get the finish. Interesting.
SPEAKER_02I'm gonna fully pass on that one, bro. But I will tell you, despite me passing on these early fights, believe me, I got banger picks coming up.
SPEAKER_00This is a good card. It's a good car. You just you shouldn't bet all fights. If there's like 14 fights, you shouldn't be betting, you know, thousand dollars a fight. That's crazy.
SPEAKER_02And we talk about that all the time where you really need to pick your spots, man. Like pick the ones you really feel confident about. Because if you're just betting every fight, you know, you're just throwing money out. And you know, it's it's you're already risking enough money just by betting, period. So if you're gonna bet, bet the spots that you actually like. You know, don't just bet every fight to just throw money out there. Next up, we have William Gomez versus Gomez versus Pat Sabatini. I know Pat Sabatini is favored in this matchup. I'm leaning Sabatini, but I feel like the odds are giving him too much of a favorite here. This is gonna be another pass for me.
SPEAKER_00The only thing I don't love is the odds, dude, because I was expecting it to be closer. I'm still gonna pick Pat Sabatini. I think overall he's a little bit of a better fighter and grappler. Um, I think he can get the job done. I I just don't it's minus 210, so it's not crazy or terrible. I just don't love it. I do wish it was more of a pick'em. So, I mean, if if you went dog or pass, I could understand, but I I do like Pat Sabatini in this matchup. I think he's got the he's got the skill.
SPEAKER_02I think he definitely has the grappling and the wrestling advantage here. You know, if it was just standing kickboxing, Gomez could could be more, it could be more even odds, but uh Sabatini definitely has the wrestling and grappling advantage, making him, you know, the obvious favorite here. Um William Gomez is definitely dangerous, so I'm gonna pass on this one. I feel like the odds should be Sabatini, it may be minus 130, 140, and he's a little bit overvalued here, in my opinion.
SPEAKER_03Alright, next up, here we go, man.
SPEAKER_02I got my first pick of the night. I don't know how much I'm gonna put on this one, but we have uh Roman copylov versus Marco Tulio. I'm taking Copilov as a dog here, bro.
SPEAKER_00I love it, this guy. He's all over it. It's almost the same kind of matchup, dude. It's like this is this is more of a pick um. I'm surprised it's still not crazy. Um I don't know, dude. This one this one has me kind of torn up a little bit. I'm gonna see what I want. I didn't put notes down because I was just running through it quick. Yeah, I mean, I don't know, dude. Kaplanov kind of upsets me sometimes. I feel like when I bet him, he loses, and when I bet against him, he wins. He's like one of those fighters, he's like always on my you know opposite side. What were his last two fights?
SPEAKER_02So we'll start with Tulio. He lost by knockout in his last fight to Chris Duncan, and I never like betting a guy coming off a knockout loss. And before that, he beat Traeshaan Gore and uh uh Pateria, who it you know, neither of them are very good or respected fighters in the UFC. Whereas Kopulov, I feel like his resume is a lot better. He's fought better opponents. His last two fights were losses to Gregory Rodriguez and Paulo Costa. And both of those fighters are arguably contenders. You know, they're seriously respected. So, in my opinion, I think Kopulov gets back on track here. Um, I feel like it should be pick'em odds. Last time I checked, I think you could get Kopulov at what a bug plus above 60?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, plus 160 still. So I I'll take that.
SPEAKER_02This is probably gonna be a standing, standing fight where they're both kickboxing. I feel like Kopulov has fought better quality fighters, and the value is definitely on him here. Tulio just came off a knockout loss, so I have to take the underdog here, man. I'm for my hand is forced.
SPEAKER_00I like it. I'm with Roman.
SPEAKER_02It's not a lock by any means, but I just feel like there's so much value on that side.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, that plus 160, that's good.
SPEAKER_02So and copy love again, it's fought better fighters. His lot he has back-to-back losses, but most fighters in those in that same division would probably lose to RoboCop and um and Paulo Costa. Paulo Costa's on a roll right now, dude. He just speed up a speed guy and he's looking at a title shop potentially.
SPEAKER_00He had like a kind of a two-year dip, and that fool's just I don't know if he got better training or different coaches, but it seems like his old self again, he's coming back hard.
SPEAKER_02He just laid off the wine, bro. He's just not getting wine drunk before his fights now.
SPEAKER_00That's it, dude. He's not he's not dealing with those pre-fight nerves.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. Um, but yeah, I like copy law for sure in that matchup. Next up, we have two OGs of the fight game. We got a grandfather and Jim Miller, dude. This has gotta be dang near his 50th UFC fight. I mean, he's probably the oldest and most experienced fighter in the UFC, potentially, at this point, that's a at that's an active fighter going against Jared Gordon, who has been in the UFC for quite some time as well, not as long as Miller. Um, I feel like in this matchup, Gordon should win this fight, but the odds are just a little bit too crazy for me. Gordon being a minus 300 plus, I just can't justify that, and I'm gonna have to pass on this fight.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I mean, I throw you know Gordon into your parlay pieces at minus 300. It's not terrible. He should get the job done. But Miller's still a live dog, dude, any day. You never know what's gonna happen. I mean, he could come out and get all crazy, but go Jared Gordon should get the job done here at minus 300, basically. Jim Miller at plus 250. Not loving that, but and uh the over two and a half is at minus two 205. So I think there's a little bit of value there. I don't see either of these guys getting like a crazy quick knockout, but again, anything could happen with these guys.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I think with that over-under, the odds being that it's basically saying if you're gonna take Jared Gordon, take him by decision, because in my opinion, Jim Miller is kind of first round and a half or bust. I mean, if he doesn't pull off a submission in the first round, round and a half, he really gases out. And I don't really question Jared Gordon's gas tank at all. So I think those odds are basically saying that hey, the biggest um likely outcome is Jared Gordon winning by decision.
SPEAKER_00Agreed.
SPEAKER_02So if you're gonna take Gordon and you want to get better value, take him by decision, and you might get closer to uh even odds there instead of that minus 300 plus price tag.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, and it's that's gonna go up too, so it gets closer to fight night.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. Yeah, I think so too, bro. It's hard to bet on Jim Miller being almost what is he, almost 50 years old.
SPEAKER_00He's only 42. I I was thinking he was older than that, but he looks 50.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I mean, fight miles, fight mileage, my god. You know, r respect to him though. He's been in the fight game forever, and he's a respectable fighter. I mean, he's no easy fight for anybody, but again, there's no um there's no comparison to Father Time. You know, father time catches up to everybody, especially in the sport of the UFC.
SPEAKER_00100%, dude.
SPEAKER_02Next up we have Mateos Rebecca versus Grant Dawson. Um you want to pick first, you want me to go?
SPEAKER_00Dude, I went back and forth between these two, man, because I could see I could see this fight getting kind of going either direction. Both these guys are basically 23-3, 20 and 4. It's like both these guys win more than they lose. I just I don't know, dude. This is a tough one. I feel like it depends on whose camp goes well, who's you know, feeling good coming into the ring that day. I feel like this is more of a like a pick'em than they're giving it. They have Grant Dawson at minus 170 and Rebecca at plus 145. I'm leaning towards Grant Dawson, dude, overall, but at the minus 170, I'm not loving those odds.
SPEAKER_02Bro, I was agreeing with everything you're saying about taking kick here. Um, I like Rebecca in this matchup. I feel the same way. I feel like, you know, it's a really close fight on paper. Grant Dawson has the grappling and wrestling advantage, but Rebecca is way better standing up, you know, and trading. And I think Rebecca's a lot more of a dog than Grand Dawson is. And so whenever I feel like it's a really close 50-50 fight, I gotta take the underdog here. I'm gonna take the dog and Rebecca, and um, I'm not real confident about it, but like I said, and like you said, anytime you know you feel like it could be a 50-50 fight and it's gonna end up being close, I gotta take the underdog, man.
SPEAKER_00And yeah, um that's where the value is, right?
SPEAKER_02I feel like Rebecca has been in a lot more wars and um when I feel like Rebecca um handles adversity a little bit better than Dawson does. Dawson likes to win a clean fight, wrestling, and you know, winning on control time, maybe finding a submission. But if it gets dirty and it gets it gets messy, I like Rebecca in the fire.
SPEAKER_00And now Dawson does have the reach advantage of six inches. That that's why I was leaning towards Dawson over the pick'em.
SPEAKER_02Definitely something to note. I think if he utilizes his boxing more and um takes advantage of that six-inch reach advantage, that could definitely be um, you know, an advantage for him. But will he use that? I don't know, man. Dawson just likes to wrestle his picking the whole time. So I don't know if that'll be an advantage for him.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, you don't know how he's gonna come in or what kind of strategy he has for this.
SPEAKER_02And you know, and I hate judging fighters based off one fight, but I thought Grand Dawson was a real contender, but once he got knocked out by Bobby Green, I said, hey, he could he could be knocked out by anybody, and I don't know if he's a real dog or not. So in this matchup, I gotta take Rebecca, and I might even get a little cute with it and take Rebecca by knockout, because those odds would be plus probably 300 plus.
SPEAKER_00Well, for sure, dude, yeah. Plus, I mean, and I know you you always kinda I don't know, crap on uh Bobby Green, but I I think Bobby's got it, dude. Sometimes he shows up, man, and he's just like he's just in the zone, man, and he can knock out anybody that night. Hey, talk about a respected veteran.
SPEAKER_02Put some I need to put some respect on Bobby Green's name.
SPEAKER_00King Green, baby. King Green. He's on this card too.
SPEAKER_02He is. We'll get to his matchup in about two fights.
SPEAKER_00Alright, so this one it has Grant Dawson by KO and Rebecca by submission plus 700, but that's not what you said. You said Rebecca by KO, right?
SPEAKER_03Yeah, Rebecca by KO, or it's gonna be a really close decision. Oh, some of these things are weird. I don't see a submission happen in here, and I don't see Grant Dawson getting a finish at all.
SPEAKER_00No, I mean I if like like you just said, Rebecca KO or Dawson wins by control time essentially.
SPEAKER_03Alright, sounds good, bro.
SPEAKER_02You ready to get into the next one? Yeah. Next up, Joel Avarez, who's going up a weight class. He was um fighting in the lightweight division, and he was just too big. It was too big of a weight cut. He's getting a little bit older now, so he moved up to the welterweight, and he's going against um Yaroslav Yaroslav Amasov. I know Amasov is a favorite here, but I'm taking Joel Avarez. I know that he's going up a weight class, but dude, he's a freaking dog, and he only loses to the best of the best in the divisions. Again, I know he's going up a weight class, and that might play a big factor, but Joel's a big dude, and whenever I can get him as an underdog, I'm gonna take him.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, that's the only thing I don't love is him moving up. This will be his first time. Like a lot of these guys are weight bullies, but they're they're all doing it at the same time, right? So I assume you're gonna see him looking more conditioned, looking stronger, looking thicker going into this matchup. So I I do like Joel overall on this matchup. Um, but I think it could go either way. And uh Amasov's always got he's only lost one fight, dude. But Joel's got the two each reach advantage, so I do like that too.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I just feel like Joel's a better a more seasoned vet, and um I don't know. I think I think he's gonna give Amasov that welcome to the UFC moment. You know, uh Joel's been in some wars, and again, I feel like it's probably gonna be a close fight. I am aware that Amasov has only lost once, but um I'm this is one of those fights again. If it if I feel like it's a close call, I'm always gonna lean the underdog, and I know Alvarez is a slight underdog in this matchup. I think you can get him plus what 160, one yeah, plus 153.
SPEAKER_00Okay.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, and I I feel like more money will probably come on Joel Alvarez to come fight night too.
SPEAKER_03This is are you on board with that underdog, bro?
SPEAKER_00This is the blob of the night. Yeah, I like Joel Alvarez. I think Alvarez is a good matchup there. Yeah, I like it as a dog.
SPEAKER_02Bro, next up, I kind of want to just pass on this fight overall just because the odds are so crazy, but we have Adiba. Just just Ataba Gutier versus Aussie Diaz. Bro, this is one of those layup fights for Good Tier where they're wanting to give him a big knockout um on Diaz. It I think he's like minus 1100. It's something I can't I don't even want to talk about.
SPEAKER_00Minus 1500. Just slap him on your your next favorite play and just enjoy the night. Just watch the fight, enjoy it, boost the odds barely. I mean, there's just there's just enjoy watching that fight.
SPEAKER_02Good here's probably gonna get a big knockout, but there's just no value there, bro. I mean, it's one of those it's so outlandish that you might as well just take Diaz or pass just for for fun.
SPEAKER_00Even the over under is half around. I mean, there there's just there's hard to bet. There's just not a lot of value here. It's like, yes, he could knock him out inside two and a half minutes, he could not come out at three minutes, and then you lose. It's just there's just no value here. Under one and a half, I'd love. Under one, I would love, but under half, there's just no way.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I'd I'd probably take the over, to be honest with you, bro. Let Diaz run around for a little bit.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, the overall.
SPEAKER_02Over at minus 275. Alright. Alright, dude. Next up, I know we're not agreeing on this one. I know we're not, bro. 100%. We got King Green versus Jeremy Stevens. King Green's what a what's he? A minus what?
SPEAKER_00Minus 350. I'm I'm taking green, dude. I'm taking green.
SPEAKER_02He's in my bro, you're you're tripping balls, dude. I know Jeremy Stevens hasn't won a fight since like 2018. He left, he fought bare knuckle, he fought in other organizations. But dude, I will say I've never been a huge fan, but Jeremy Stevens packed some power in his punches, bro. King Green could definitely win by decision here, but I'm taking this, bro. Jeremy Stevens five knockout, baby. He's gotta be plus he's gotta be plus five, six hundred on the knockout prop. And I'm taking that because guess what? Bobby Green is so fast, but he is almost 40 years old, and Jeremy Stevens has power in his punch, bro.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, he's slowing down. Let me sweep when I switch this real quick. Yeah, I mean, I I do like Bobby Green. I think he's got enough to get the job done. I don't I don't think he I don't think he'll get the finish, but I see it going to decision and him getting it. Oh yeah, plus 400. Jeremy Stevens plus 400 for the KO.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I'm taking that, bro. I'm taking the most likely outcome is King Green to win by decision. He could win by knockout too, but I just feel like Jeremy Stevens is gonna this is gonna be like his last hoorah in the UFC where he knocks out King Green. King Green is super chiny, you know, his chin's not that great for how fast he is, and if Stevens catches him, it could be night night for Green. And I just feel like with the odds being so favored towards Green, I have to take Stevens by knockout, bro. I have to.
SPEAKER_00I'm good with it. I'm not upset.
SPEAKER_02And I knew you were gonna pick Green too, so I said, you know what, let's let's stay mad on one of them.
SPEAKER_00Alright, now what do you think about this? Joaquin Buckley versus Sean Brady. Is that the next fight on the card?
SPEAKER_02That's the next fight, yeah. Alright, sorry, I had to pick I just got my DoorDash ordered, but let me uh DoorDash needs to sponsor us, bro. That would change my whole life. That'd be nice. Oh my god, that'd that'd change my whole life, dude. I ordered it way too much than Doordash. Please hook me up. Alright, so Sean Brady versus Brady. Brady has the grappling advantage. He's a way better wrestler, and grappler is better jujitsu. I feel like ha is a lot better standing up. So it's like two guys that are better in totally different areas. Buckley can wrestle. I will give him that. He can wrestle a little bit. But it's one of those fights again where the the matchmakers did such a great job of making competitive matchups on this card, and I have to take Buckley just because he does he's an underdog here. Dang it. Is the heart, bro? Sean Brady, once he gets rocked too many times, he checks out of fights mentally, and his heart's not all the way in it. Buckley's got that job.
SPEAKER_00I will agree with that. I will agree with that.
SPEAKER_02Sometimes it's Buckley just lost the Usman, and Usman, in my opinion, should and could be fighting for the title against Islam right now. I think Usman, despite being an old man, would probably give Us uh Islam his his most competitive fight in that division. I'm taking Buckley as a dog here, bro. I have to.
SPEAKER_00I'm not I'm not upset, dude. I like Brady overall. I think he's a little bit better, well rounded fighter. I think he can handle it if it goes down to the floor. Um now I'm not saying Buckley can't catch him with some like weird roundhouse, you know, kick to the back of the head or something. You know, Buckley's kind of quirky, dude. Bucky's got some got some of those weird shots he can pop off out of nowhere, right? So I mean Buckley is the talented fighter by all means, but I think overall Brady's got a little bit more IQ. The only problem is if it goes to the third round, Brady does kind of start to dog out on himself, dude. He kind of gives up even on himself. It's like you even if he's sitting there in you know top position, he just kind of lays there. It's like he's not looking to get the finish, he's just looking to get the points at that point.
SPEAKER_02Bro, you gotta think too, Brady just got finished by Morales, too. And Morales, you know, he changes people's lives when he puts him out. Oh, that's that's coming off a big loss to Morales, whereas Buckley lost to Usman and he really just got outclassed in that matchup. You know, Usman showed him there's levels of this game. Yeah, but Brady kind of lost embarrassing and embarrassing. So I don't know how he's mentally gonna come back from that because Brady has also always been someone who's hasn't had a strong mental, in my opinion. So um gonna be a close fight, but I'm gonna take Buckley to get a third round stoppage or win a split decision here and piss off a lot of people that have Brady on their parlays.
SPEAKER_00Brady minus 163, Buckley at plus 137. So it's a close pick em. I like this.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I mean you can't tell someone they're stupid or they're wrong for either side they're taking in this matchup.
SPEAKER_00No, no, no.
SPEAKER_02It's a great matchup, honestly.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, it is a great style statistically, style tystically speaking, it's a great matchup. Like you said, one stand, one down down on the ground. It's just gonna be who can, you know, work their game plan the best against their opponent.
SPEAKER_02I love Volkov, but Waldo Cortez de Costa is a nightmare matchup for him. I'm t and the fact that he's an underdog, I'm taking Waldo.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I love WCA here for sure, dude. I I feel like Wolkov's kind of peaked a little bit, and now he's kind of like on this down while just like little bobble phase. I mean, he does have the height, he does have the reach advantage, but I think Waldo's got him, and I think he's I think he's stronger. I think he's physically more dominant in the ring. I think he's gonna control the ring better, I think he's gonna do better on the ground. I don't know how you could bet against Acosta here, honestly. I mean, again, the there is the the height in the ring.
SPEAKER_02And the fact that he's the underdog, bro.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I mean, at plus 145, dude, I I love Acosta here. That's my underdog pick of it.
SPEAKER_02Wolkov is like one of those fighters that he's he's kind of peaked already. Like he is on a great run right now and he's on fire. He's already peaked, man. He's been to the top, he has never won a title, but I feel like he's really just held his position. Whereas Waldo Acosta hasn't gotten a chance for a title shot yet, and he's still earning his way through the ranks. This is still new to him, whereas Volkov has held that spot in the top five, top ten for a really long time now. So I just think that you know, just like in all weight classes in the UFC, you know, there's there's a uh passing of the torch, and this is just time for the newer fighters. And Waldo Cortez Acosta is a newer fighter, and he's ready for better matchups. And I think um the fact that again, last time I'll say it, the fact that he's an underdog here is pretty outrageous because in my opinion, it should be a coin flip fight.
SPEAKER_00No, I yeah, I I'm surprised it wasn't closer again, dude. But Volkov minus 170, Acosta plus one to 45. I'm loving the dog. I'm taking the the odds at plus one forty-five here. I think if this was if this fight was like, let's say three or four years ago when Volkoff was kind of at his prime and Waldo was kind of just coming on, everybody'd be on Volkov. But I'd like you said, I think it's the passing of the torch here.
SPEAKER_02And Waldo's, you know, his confidence is so high. He's on like a five or six fight win streak. You know, this dude's on fire right now. So um I think momentum's a real thing. And um I I'm just I feel like he's at that mental state right now where he's not scared of anybody. You know, he I don't think he believes anybody, no matter who he fights at this point.
SPEAKER_00I mean, again, obviously Volko's got the the height, but I think just the fear's size and the weight and the strength, the cost has got him in all the other categories.
SPEAKER_02And for heavyweight, it scared me a little bit when Volkov beat Pavlovich and outclassed him to a decision win because Pavlovich is really scary. But I feel like the difference in this matchup is Waldo's gonna incorporate more of his wrestling, and that's gonna be the difference maker for him to win this fight. Love it. Alright, bro. Now I took like three or four underdogs in a row. The underdogs are dead now. Now I feel super confident these next two plays. We got Tatsuru Tyra versus Joshua Van. This is the easiest money of the year, bro.
SPEAKER_00You just love Tierra so much on this one?
SPEAKER_02Tyra bro, Tyra's gonna he's gonna submit Joshua Van so easily. I promise you, bro, Tyra's gonna choke him out within three rounds. Tyra is the cream of the crop. Bro, he submitted um uh Brandon Moreno quick in his last Johnson under two rounds. Moreno's no easy out for anybody. Tyra made that easy work. And what what did what has Van done? Van got knocked out by Charles Johnson, and Van got a fluke win versus Pantoja, who really just landed on his elbow wrong. I I just can't justify Van being a real champion right now, and Tyra's not having any close fights.
SPEAKER_00The only I don't like is the Tierra's uh one loss is against Brandon Roival, and I feel like that's similar to Joshua Van, kind of more standing, and so I think I think there's some similarities, but I think he's gonna make those corrections.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, he did go to decision with Roy Vall, but in my opinion, that's more of a less learning lesson for him. And with Joshua Van, he if it stays on the feet, he's nasty at boxing, but Tyra has, in my opinion, better kickboxing and a 30 million times better ground game. I just feel like he is. I gotta take bro. I just I Tyra's my guy, man. I'm riding with him to the moon.
SPEAKER_00So you think back-to-back submissions going into these title events, dude?
SPEAKER_02Bro, 100%. You're giving Tyra five rounds to submit Van. Van's He's gonna be slapping that floor for a tap out. I promise you.
SPEAKER_00Tyra to the Van's tapping and Strickland's tapping.
SPEAKER_02Hey, we'll get to that fight, but yeah, there's I got some I got I'm feel really confident, especially in a five-round fight, dude. It's a lot more likely for these guys to get finishes, especially for a title fight. Tyra's never tasted gold before, and Van's gonna be pretty nervous in there, bro. He knows he didn't get a real win versus Pantosia, and Tyra's a problem, bro.
SPEAKER_00And we've been waiting for this fight for like at least a year and a half, two years.
SPEAKER_02So it's Tyra's time, man. And um, Tyra and Pantosia would be a really interesting fight because they're both nasty on the ground.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, that would be a crazy grapple game, dude.
SPEAKER_02So, yeah, I'm taking Tyra here, and Van had a very short-lived title run.
SPEAKER_03Who do you like in that one? Are you taking Van?
SPEAKER_00No, I like I like uh I can't pronounce his last name, but I like Tierra too.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, you gotta take him, bro.
SPEAKER_00There's there's Van is live. I mean, don't don't count me wrong. I don't think this is a layup, but I think overall, like just like you said, dude, Tierra is better on the ground, his submission game is better. He's coming off some nasty wins the last couple of times. I feel like Van's just kind of been coasting by, keeping his belts and not really doing much to contain it. So this will be a good push.
SPEAKER_02Never even defended it yet. He just got off that fluke win, and you know he's you know, everybody gave him a hard time about it. I feel like mentally, we'll see how strong he is come fight night. But uh, if Van wins this fight, way more respect for him. Because right now I'm just thinking this is easy money for Tyra.
SPEAKER_00And a minus 160. I mean, that's those are some great odds. Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Next up, we have the main event, dude. This is serious bad blood. These guys can't even get face-offs this week. They're not even gonna be in the same room as a as the press conference. We have Hamzat Chamayev, never lost in the UFC, rarely had a close fight versus Sean Strickland. Um, Sean Strickland is an absolute dog. He took the belt from um Israel Adasania, and then um he ended up losing the belt, and he just made his way back up to try to get another title shot. Um I'll let you go first.
SPEAKER_00I mean, I think Sean Strickland's stand-up game is almost unbeatable, man. I think he's one of the better stand-up guys. The problem is he's admitted that he's been choked out by Chamayev in training. So if Chamayev knows he can choke his ass out in training, why won't you just go show up in the ring and choke his ass out? I see Chamo Chamayev going by submission here, dude. Hands down. I say second or third round submission.
SPEAKER_02Man, I feel the same way, you know. I I I completely agree with you. Nobody can stay in and trade with Sean Strickland for five rounds. His output, his gas tank is second to nobody. You know, he tags you with those jabs nonstop and the teep kicks. But dude, and I know he just beat Fluffy Hernandez, but Hamzat is levels above Hernandez, bro. You know, I'm thinking it's it's the submission. How much does it matter Strickland's stand-up game if Hamzat has taken him down? And I know Strickland's takedown defense is good, but again, Strickland has never fought Shamayev in the UFC. No, there's just there's levels of this wrestling game. There's Islam Mokachev, and then there's Hamzat Chamayev. And I don't think nobody's messed with either one of those guys. I'm taking Shamaev by submission here.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, Chamaev by decision. Because at minus 600, you basically have to put him at the end of your parlay, or or take the submission, or you know, you can't.
SPEAKER_02And he just won he just won that boring um win by control time over Dracas duplex C. And I think Klamza is gonna make a statement here. And again, I know a lot of people are like, Sean has the gas tank, Sean has the better stand-up, Sean might have more experience. None of that matters if he's able to get taken down and submitted. None of that.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I think that first round, again, they'll they'll both kind of, you know, just start off light. You're not gonna see either of them just be crazy in the center of the ring. They're just gonna try to feel each other out and let the first person make the first mistake. But by the second and third round, they're just gonna be getting after each other, grappling, all that hatred, and everything's just gonna be out the door, and they're just gonna be going after each other. And that's when the mistakes happen. That's when you get pulled up into some type of submission, dude. Whether it gets in a headlock or a rear-naked choke, or I mean, maybe even see something crazy that we haven't seen in a long time, dude, like an arm bar or something.
SPEAKER_02Bro, here's here's my prediction on this fight specifically. Shamaev takes down Strickland on his first takedown of the fight. I'm gonna say as soon as the bell rings, they don't touch gloves. Shamaev shoot throws a feint, shoots a takedown, gets Strickland down, and chokes him out within the first three minutes of the fight.
SPEAKER_00It's definitely a possibility.
SPEAKER_02Shemhav's corner, Strickland's corner is probably gonna get into it. Extra security is gonna jump in, and Shmab's gonna get on the micro and say, I told you, I kill everybody! I kill everybody.
SPEAKER_00I wouldn't be upset if that happens.
SPEAKER_02Shab is so due for another finish in a crazy microphone moment, and this is it, dude.
SPEAKER_00Well, this is definitely a possibility. And if you get them when you're dry, you have a better chance of getting a submission easier too, right? So there is some of that. I just think Strickland will be able to, like you said, keep with the T ticks, keep with the front kicks. He'll be able to hold his own at least the first round. I don't see Chamayev trying to shoot or do anything too crazy because he doesn't want to get caught either, right? He doesn't want to shoot and catch a knee or a foot to the face. So I think the first round is gonna be a little slower than maybe what we're expecting because of all the animosity built up.
SPEAKER_02I will agree to disagree on that one because bro, Shemayab does not respect this fool at all. He's going straight for the takedown and successfully get it and choke him out in the first three minutes. Strickland's gonna sit there like, what? And Shamab's gonna be saying all this stuff you can barely understand and talking crazy.
SPEAKER_00I mean, I'm not upset because it's those are the fights I want that fight to happen. I want that to win that way, so I won't be upset.
SPEAKER_02And on top of that, bro, we've been like kind of negative about the UFC this year. You know, how it's not lived up to the hype, and you know, um the engagement is isn't been as high since the pay-per-views aren't here. I feel like this fight puts UFC like back on, and this is gonna make UFC like, hey, this is gonna get us re-hyped up before that White House card.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, exactly. Yeah, this this is a good card. I mean, again, everyone's got recognizable names. A lot of these guys have been fighting for, you know, shit, 10 plus years. I mean, most of these guys are I mean, a lot of these guys were like 15 and 1, 20 and 3. I mean, a lot of these guys have great records on this card.
SPEAKER_02This card is bringing UFC back to life.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I love it.
SPEAKER_02All right, so you ready for some parlays?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, we're up nine units since we started doing this podcast, guys. Nine units.
SPEAKER_02So we smashed last weekend too. And guess what? We're gonna smash this weekend too because I'm gonna give you a 403-unit play. But I'll let you go first. You're gonna do your mark out?
SPEAKER_00I'm gonna get this one in real quick. So I just did a five-team parlay, one full unit, Pat Sabatini, um, Jared Gordon, uh, Atiba, Gaitar, Sean Brady, and Shemayev. So the only one you don't like is Brady in there.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. That's probably a good payout, though. What does that pay?
SPEAKER_00Uh, plus two eighty-eight. So basically three times. Love it.
SPEAKER_02I like the payout on that, even though I don't like Brady. But Brady's live, man, so I won't hit on that.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, yeah. No, I think I think it's a good one. And again, now that we're up, I can start to bet a little bit better. Or I was just trying to bet just to get into the green for a while.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, hey, we can get wild now, bro.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, we can go wild. I'll do what you want.
SPEAKER_01You got your you want to give your Martin Gill? Yeah, let me pull up my photos. So I that Pat, you're gonna hate me.
SPEAKER_00Pat Sabatini, Grant Dawson, and Sean Brady.
SPEAKER_02Jesus, bro, I don't like any of them.
SPEAKER_00As soon as I saw it, I knew you were gonna hate it. I'm good with it, though. I just need one. I just need one of the three, bro. That's the trick here. Which we hit last week, too. We hit last week too. I didn't get up early enough, so I missed a couple of fights, but dude.
SPEAKER_02I'm s well I luckily I'm not gonna be playing those fights like all of those, so um, I hope you hit for your sake, bro. Alright. So I whatever units you're comfortable with agreeing with me on, I like to do between two and four units. Like, this is a big play for me. Tyra and Shamayev just straight up parlay two teams. Tyra and Shamayev.
SPEAKER_00So look for for the uh j just Tyra by himself, right?
SPEAKER_02No, I want to parlay those two.
SPEAKER_00With Shamayev?
SPEAKER_02Yeah.
SPEAKER_00Alright, done. So just those two, right?
SPEAKER_03Yeah.
SPEAKER_00I know it's not pretty, but minus 111. That's good. That's basically Yeah, I feel crazy about that. That's my we can't lose parlay. Alright, so let's do this. Let's do it for four units. And then if this wins, your your best bet next week, we do it for five units. And if it wins, we just keep adding one unit every week, dude, as long as it keeps winning. Because like literally, your last four or five locks have hit. So we gotta just start pressing them up, dude. We gotta just start pressing them up. I'm with it.
SPEAKER_02Alright, and then I got a crazy parlay for like a quarter unit.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. Which that which worked out. We hit that last week.
SPEAKER_02Let's go, dude. Let's freaking go. Alright, so for a quarter unit, this is a crazy parlay. It's gonna pay a lot. Alright, so leg one, Joel Alvarez.
SPEAKER_01Joel Alvarez.
SPEAKER_03Bro, I'm sorry. Leg two, Jeremy Stevens. You're fine, you're fine.
SPEAKER_00Jeremy Stevens.
SPEAKER_02Leg three, Acosta Waldo Cortez Acosta. Alright.
SPEAKER_03Ira and Shemaev.
SPEAKER_01That's gotta pay like plus fifteen hundred. There's some good underdogs.
SPEAKER_00So Alvarez, uh Stevens, Acosta, Tatsu, Tatsuzuri, and Shamayev, right? Yes. Plus 4,307. That's fire, bro. Dude, so let's do half a unit. Half a yeah, I mean that's legit. So half a unit pays 20 units, basically.
SPEAKER_02Okay, let's do it. That'll set us up for the year.
SPEAKER_03We can be very crazy that hits.
SPEAKER_00That's crazy, bro.
SPEAKER_02Bro, again, I just I don't know why, bro. I'm just I'm hella feeling Jeremy Stevens. I don't know why, but I just feel like they're both old guys. Jeremy Stevens has the power, Green has the speed. It's like I just feel like it's gonna be a close fight, bro.
SPEAKER_00And then last week we hit like all kinds of stuff. And I even hedged Jack Melodana at the end, dude, with three units hedged him. And we still won big time. Because one of our units or one of our plays was like a quarter unit to win six units because we did the same thing. What's that?
SPEAKER_03Did that hit?
SPEAKER_00That hit, yeah. It was Louis Sutherland, uh Brando, Steve Ersig, uh Siliklid, Paratis, and Colby Thickneys.
SPEAKER_03Bro, we smacked.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. So that was a six-team parlay we hit. We hit our two-team leg parlay. We hit our other two-team leg parlay. Um, we missed the seven leger because of the we we did Gerald Mirchart was basically the only big difference. Which I didn't I ended up not seeing that fight because I I fucking forgot the fights came on at 1 a.m. I was thinking 1 p.m.
SPEAKER_02And then I think my main parlay wasn't like Pratez, Salkeed, and Urseg or something.
SPEAKER_00So it must have just been Saig Salkeed and Pratez was one. I don't remember who's a through. And then Jonathan Misklov and Sykeed was another one. And then we the two big ass parlays.
SPEAKER_03Let's go, bro.
SPEAKER_02Hey, if we get this, if we get this podcast out soon, we're gonna be looking like I feel like this is gonna be a big week for us, bro.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. And then really, just like the two fights before, the only one that got us was that Ozma against Costa. Costa is finally getting coming back in. Otherwise, we killed that card too.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. And I remember I called you that morning, of, and I was like, bro.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, he's gonna feel weird.
SPEAKER_02Live dog. But I don't want to say anything because I didn't play it and we didn't give it out on the podcast. So yeah, I hate when people like say, Oh, I meant to do this. But fight day, I really did feel different, but it doesn't matter because we picked the other guy on the podcast.
SPEAKER_00So I'll it is sometimes the hard part because we normally do this on Wednesday, and then the weigh-ins are on Friday. It's because even on weigh-ins, I see guys and I'm like, oh, there's no way I would be betting this guy, or I wouldn't choose this guy now. So always follow just in case to see if there's any updates. But whatever we say here is what we bet on the one account, and then we always just trail this account with this. So there is no you know, flip-flops or giving backs and no weird stuff. I'm trying to be as you know open and upfront as possible.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, 100%. And you know what? Everybody, you know, w it's hard because when you're making predictions, we don't want to give our plays out on like Friday night to where barely anybody sees our plays. So we try to give them out early in the week. But you know, when you see people's weight cuts, their face-offs, and etc. Yeah. A lot of those things do factor a hundred percent and can make you up kid to you know, not want to put in a bet or you know, change to the other person, but for the most part, we're gonna, you know, we always stand by who we put originally. So this week we're gonna make some crazy money, bro.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I mean, I feel good being up last week already. We've been doing well for so really this year we've been doing well. We've just been like barely squeaking by, but last week really pushed us forward. So I think we're gonna up nine units is crazy.
SPEAKER_02If you if you're even around five hundred is As a gambler, that's that's great. You know, so the fact that we're up nine units, we're on fire right now. So we got room to play around a little bit too.
SPEAKER_00Yep. No, I I feel great about this, dude. And really, I mean, football's gonna be back here soon before we know it, and that's that's when we were really getting more engaged in and doing better with the bets and stuff as well. UFC can be difficult, and so I I think as soon as NFL comes back, dude, we'll we'll really start pushing this, you know, our account forward. Mic'ed up and misinformed, baby.
SPEAKER_03Alright, mic'd up and misinformed out.
SPEAKER_01Boom.