UFC Muhammad vs Bonfim

Join us as we break down UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim! 🥊

In this episode, we analyze the matchups, share our predictions, and discuss betting strategies for the upcoming fights. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or a casual fan, we've got insights that will enhance your viewing experience!

Key takeaways:

• Early prelims predictions
• Key fighters to watch
• Betting odds and strategies

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:12 Fight Night Overview
00:54 Early Prelims Predictions
02:30 Key Matchups
04:00 Betting Strategies
06:00 Main Event Breakdown

What's your biggest challenge with betting on UFC? Drop it in the comments!

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#UFC #FightNight #MMA

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:01

Welcome back to Mike'ed Up and Misinformed with your host Lunch Money and Mad Dog. This week we're gonna predict UFC Fight Night Muhammad versus Bomfeme. You ready, bro? Let's go. So I was just telling him off camera, I feel like this isn't a big card that I'm excited for as a fan, but betting-wise, I think there's some really good spots here. But any weekend that we have UFC is a great weekend.

SPEAKER_00 0:26

So it's a good weekend. Last weekend was crazy being so early, though. I had to get up early.

SPEAKER_01 0:32

Oh man, it was frustrating because I feel like we got a lot of the picks right, but I had that Ming Yang against Alonzo Minifield uh on a lot of tickets, and Alonzo Minifield had beat him. I think he knocked him out too.

SPEAKER_00 0:46

He knocked him out, yeah. That's what killed it for sure.

SPEAKER_01 0:49

So other than that, everything looked pretty good.

SPEAKER_00 0:52

Yeah, we did very well. It was good.

SPEAKER_01 0:54

And Song Yedong easily took care of business in the main event versus Cigareto.

SPEAKER_00 1:00

No problem. And I don't think anybody was expecting him to get the submission, so that was crazy.

SPEAKER_01 1:05

Yeah, yeah, that was a that that would have been a good payout for method of victory.

SPEAKER_00 1:09

I think it was plus 1100 because I looked at it just before the fight started, and I was like, nah, I don't think he's gonna be able to do it.

SPEAKER_01 1:15

I wouldn't have had that on my bingo card. I I thought it was gonna be a knockout for sure. I'm surprised to see the submission. For sure, for sure. Alright, so starting with the early prelims on this card for uh March uh sorry March for June 6th, we have Caitlin Souza versus Ariane Carnal Carnalosi Carnalosi. Who do you got?

SPEAKER_00 1:40

So this is a rematch. They had fought each other in uh uh I think LFA or one of the other you know other divisions, and Carnalosi won then with I think with a liver kick or a shot to the body or liver. So as a rematch, and I'm not a big fan of Souza. I feel like she she does win and she does well sometimes, but I don't know if she just gets in her own head and just mix matches it. So I'm leaning towards the underdog here. I'm taking Carnelosi for the first one.

SPEAKER_01 2:07

That's interesting. I did not know that they had fought in previously, so um I was I was feeling Souza, but you kind of talked me out of it. I'll I wasn't gonna bet on that one anyway, so I'll just go ahead and pass.

SPEAKER_00 2:19

Yeah, I mean I think honestly, I think, especially at these odds, like dog or pass. Souza is at minus 300, and Carnelosi is at plus 240. So know when she won previously, I'm gonna take the dog at 240.

SPEAKER_01 2:30

Yeah, that those odds don't really justify based off of what had happened before. So those are the crazy. Next up, we have uh Jesla Chavez versus Unice Duban. Who do you got in this one? I don't know either one of these fighters that well.

SPEAKER_00 2:46

Yeah, I mean, I I just go and try to do a little bit, but I think Chavez has got more past the victories, and Duban just got lost, she just lost by a KO. So I'm I'm taking uh Chavez here. Yeah, but same thing, they have her at minus 370, so it's this is a tough one, too. So I mean it's a parlay piece, but you know, put it in early and you know, hope that it runs the rest of the way. But I'm taking Chavez at minus 370. There's just still, there's just not a lot of value here.

SPEAKER_01 3:15

Yeah, for me, I would say dogger pass, but I don't know anything about either one of those fighters, but I will have picks going forward.

SPEAKER_00 3:22

Yeah, the rest of the cards are pretty good. These these first couple of ones are a little off, but next one we got a juicy one right here.

SPEAKER_01 3:29

I really like this card, this um matchup. We have Jordan Jordan Levitt versus Joe Anderson Brito. I love Brito in this matchup, man.

SPEAKER_00 3:37

I mean, either of these guys to get a submission. So I think your best bet is just take submission for either one of these guys. Um, I think Levitt has fought a little bit better talent overall in his career, but same thing. It's like he comes out, he can be either really strong or come out really weak. You just don't know which version he's gonna get. So I mean, I I would agree. I think Brito's the the better option and minus 250 here.

SPEAKER_01 4:00

I feel like Levit, his only path to victory is by submission, but I just don't think he could even win that way. And I could see Brito winning by knockout sub or by decision. So I feel pretty confident taking Brito here. That's definitely gonna be in one of my one or multiple parlays.

SPEAKER_00 4:17

Yeah, so minus 205. That's good. I said two video, but 205. The odds are good there.

SPEAKER_01 4:23

Okay, sweet. Yeah, I'm definitely taking that. Next up we have Priscilla Cochera versus Chelsea Chandler. And I think the odds are about coin flip last time I checked on this matchup.

SPEAKER_00 4:36

Uh yeah, exactly. Minus 105, minus 115. But uh Cochera's got one out of her last five fights, he's won, and Chandler's got two wins out of the last five. So it's like one and five and two and three.

SPEAKER_01 4:50

So I mean, they're both on the decline in their careers.

SPEAKER_00 4:54

Exactly. So it's like neither of these guys are like great or going the right way. But I'll I'll take Chandler since she's lost less the least amount of times recently at minus 115. So I lean towards her, but to me, this is a stay away.

SPEAKER_01 5:08

Yeah, I'm gonna pass on this one, but if I had to take a take a fighter here, I'm taking Priscilla Koshera to win by a decision.

SPEAKER_00 5:15

Alright, so we're on opposite sides there, but again, I I think this is a stay away fight.

SPEAKER_01 5:20

Yeah, I agree with you. Next up, we have Bruno Silva versus Edgar Charez. Um I think Bruno, what is he, like a minus 200 right here? Minus 250 or something.

SPEAKER_00 5:31

The odds change, dude. So Silva's at minus 135, and Chavez is at plus 115 now. So I don't know, I don't know if someone knows something or and they both lost the van. So I mean these guys are pretty decent fighters overall.

SPEAKER_01 5:45

Um and I might have been thinking about another fight on that on those odds. So I'd I really had no idea. I just thought Bruno would have been a little bit of a bigger favorite. But since you said those odds, I feel like it's gonna be a pretty close fight, but um, I feel like Bruno has a better resume and a little bit more experience, and I think that um he's just a little bit of a higher level opponent, um, higher level than than Sharez is.

SPEAKER_00 6:12

I mean, I would agree with that, but um since it's so close, I'm gonna take Chávez overall. I'm gonna take the dog again. I got a lot of dogs on this fight.

SPEAKER_01 6:21

Alright, I'm taking Silvia taking Charez. Yep. Alright, dude. Next up, okay. I I really like this play on the next one. I'm I'm excited to see if you feel the same way. We have Marcus McGee versus John Giannis. Who do you got?

SPEAKER_00 6:38

Dude, honestly, I think either of these guys can get the job done. So my best bet for this one is to take the fight to not go the finish at minus 180. So just it just doesn't have to finish. I think either of these guys can get it done.

SPEAKER_01 6:50

Bro, I I love Giannis for the odds. What what is he like a plus?

SPEAKER_00 6:56

Yeah, I think something I even yeah, I even wrote that down. Giannis plus 350.

SPEAKER_01 7:01

So I mean again, plus three fifty, and I think it's gonna be a close fight.

SPEAKER_00 7:05

I think it's gonna be a close fight, and I think either one of them could get it done, honestly. So I think just taking the under is the best bet, or like you said, take Giannis at plus 350. It's crazy how many underdogs I like on this card.

SPEAKER_01 7:19

Yeah, Giannis is five years younger as well. Um let's see.

SPEAKER_00 7:24

McGee comes in like a bulldog, but he doesn't have to be a good one.

SPEAKER_01 7:28

Yeah, I think McGee could win by multiple uh more pass to victory, but I think Giannis has a little bit more power and could definitely get a knockout here. Yeah, but I'm taking I feel like those odds are crazy. I'm taking Giannis all day.

SPEAKER_00 7:43

So Giannis plus 350. And again, I think take take the under or take the the not to go to the distance at minus 180.

SPEAKER_01 7:51

You think it's for sure gonna be a finish?

SPEAKER_00 7:53

I think yeah, either one of these guys is gonna get the finish. They're gonna like I said, uh Marcus comes out like a bulldog, dude. So either he he's gonna get caught, you know, doing something crazy and getting in the dogfight, or he's gonna end up tiring Giannis out and taking him down against his submission. Um, so I like you said, I think either guy could win, but I I think it's not it's not gonna go to decision.

SPEAKER_01 8:14

Alright. I'm just I'm taking Giannis. I think I'm gonna put him, I might put him in like a Hail Mary parlay, but I'll probably just sprinkle on a on a little prop bet to him to just win moneyline.

SPEAKER_00 8:27

Yeah, that's at plus 350. I don't blame you, dude.

SPEAKER_01 8:31

Next up we have Matt Snell versus Alessandro Costa. I think Costa is one of the bigger favorites on this card. Yeah, yeah. What's he like minus 500, 600 or something?

SPEAKER_00 8:41

Minus 700, and Matt Snell at plus 500. And Urseg finished both of these guys, but Costa went to decision, and Schnell got KO'd by Urseg. So I'm gonna take it.

SPEAKER_01 8:52

Snell's definitely on the decline, and he's he's got a weak chin, and he's been finished multiple times.

SPEAKER_00 8:58

Yeah, so again, I I like Costa here, but at minus 700 is just not a lot of value. That's that's a big parlay piece.

SPEAKER_01 9:05

Yeah, I wouldn't even say dog or pass, I would just say pass because I really don't think Schnell has a very good shot at winning at all.

SPEAKER_00 9:12

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 9:14

Maybe like four percent. Next up we have Iwu. Man, he's got a hard last name to pronounce. Baronowski versus Junior Taffa. I love Iwu in this matchup, bro. This is definitely a parlay piece for me. He could win, Iwu can win by decision, submission, or knockout. Junior's only way to win is by knockout.

SPEAKER_00 9:40

And Iwu's finished all of his fights. He's got six KOs and two subs. So, like you said, he has more pass than victory. Toffa, I feel like he can either get a KO in the first round or just starts to gas out and then loses. And he's only got to go.

SPEAKER_01 9:55

He gases out, no ground game whatsoever. He just he he has a puncher's chance, though.

SPEAKER_00 10:01

Yeah, and I hate that mustache.

SPEAKER_01 10:06

That's funny.

SPEAKER_00 10:07

So, unless he gets the KO in the first round, which I don't see what happening, I mean Uwa gets the job done. And the odds at minus 380 aren't terrible, but same thing. I mean, that's really just a parlay piece. Or take Uwa by KO.

SPEAKER_01 10:21

Yeah, that's how confident I am in Iw winning the fight, though, is I would definitely take those um minus 380 odds on a parlay for sure. Yeah, for sure, for sure. Junior could definitely win. It is a fight at the end of the day. Crazy things happen, has a puncher's chance, but in reality, I think Iwo has so many more ways and options of winning the fight.

SPEAKER_00 10:40

Yeah, I mean, yeah. I think Uwa wins nine and a half out of ten fights with this.

SPEAKER_01 10:44

This is just the matter of is Iwu gonna fight with a high IQ.

SPEAKER_00 10:49

Yeah, just can't he can't get caught in the dog fight. He can't just, you know, allow Toffa to Don't stand and trade.

SPEAKER_01 10:55

Just take him down.

SPEAKER_00 10:56

Yeah, exactly. Or just stay on the outside and focus on just teeing off.

SPEAKER_01 11:02

Alright, bro. Next up we have I'm interested in your take on this one. I feel super confident. We have Bryce Mitchell versus Santiago Luna. Luna's undefeated, never lost. Mitchell is the vet in this. He has a um way better resume of competition. And um, I think Luna's quite a bit younger too. I think he's in his early 20s.

SPEAKER_00 11:25

Yeah, I I don't I don't know. I don't have the ages, but I would agree. And this is only his third fight.

SPEAKER_01 11:30

Luna's Bryce is 31, Luna's 21.

SPEAKER_00 11:34

So 10 years. I mean, that is a difference, but I think Mitchell can get it done, dude. I I mean he can wrestle. I think he's like you said, he's fought topper better competition. Um, and then Luna, this is only his third fight, so I think this is gonna be his real challenge for him.

SPEAKER_01 11:48

But if he's bro, this is easy money. Mitchell all day long. Easy money for Mitchell. This is that humbling moment for Luna with him being undefeated. Mitchell is a real contender, you know, he only loses to the best of the best. Yeah, and I feel like it's almost disrespectful to be given Mitchell a fighter of this low of an entry level. Mitchell should be fighting ranked opponents. So yeah, I've taken Mitchell whole day.

SPEAKER_00 12:14

Mitchell at minus 140, I think, is a great bet.

SPEAKER_01 12:17

Bro, it's a lock. I think unless he is having like health issues on the scale or leading up to the fight, uh, that's the only way he would lose because I feel super confident he wins.

SPEAKER_00 12:27

Yep, I agree.

SPEAKER_01 12:30

Next up, we have Ferris Ziam versus Tom Nolan. Nolan's 10-1. Ziam is 18-4. Um, Xiam has the better resume, in my opinion, of UFC quality.

SPEAKER_02 12:42

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 12:42

Nolan has a puncher's chance, though. If it's a stick, if it's standing and trading, I got Nolan. But Xion has a lot more passive victory here.

SPEAKER_00 12:51

Yeah, I mean, exactly. I think Xion's the better grappler. He wears his opponents down, and sometimes he can even get the KO in the third round. Um, but I do like Tom Nolan, dude. I like him as the up-and-comer here. I think the odds are 250 for plus 250 for Nolan, and Xion is at minus 320.

SPEAKER_01 13:11

Yeah, he's I think that's a pass for me with the odds giving Ziam such a big favorite of the number, but I'll probably just pass them.

SPEAKER_00 13:20

He really can wear people down with his wrestling and grappling, and then again, he'll he'll find a path to victory in the third round. But I think Tom Nolan might just get a puncher's chance in it. Plus 250. I'm taking the dog here.

SPEAKER_01 13:33

Yeah, I'm not gonna hate on that. Next up, we have Brandon Allen versus Edmund Shabazian. Um, this is a good one right here. Who do you got? This is a good one.

SPEAKER_00 13:44

Uh, so they both lost to Anthony Hernandez. Um, I like Brandon Allen overall. I think he's a much better grappler and submission artist. So I'm I'm taking Allen and minus 230. The odds are still pretty good. Edmund's at plus 190. I just don't think he's quite the same caliber as Allen overall.

SPEAKER_01 14:02

I feel like Allen is a lot more talented across the board. He's a lot more versatile, but Edmund has the punches chance, he's got a little bit more power, and I think this is an unpopular opinion, but I think Edmund has a higher fight IQ as well. I think Allen sometimes has a bad fight IQ. Um, I got Shabazian winning by knockout in this one. Damn. I'm taking the dog, and I'm gonna take him by knockout too. He's gonna catch Brennan Allen in the second and third.

SPEAKER_02 14:35

Edmund KO plus 340. I like it, bro.

SPEAKER_00 14:40

Let's go. Damn, we're on the opposite side on a couple of these bad boys.

SPEAKER_01 14:44

Yeah, I mean, Allen should win the fight, but I just think with the odds, the odds should be a little bit closer. And um, again, Allen fights his way out of fight sometimes when he should be winning or should win.

SPEAKER_00 14:56

Yeah, I agree with that.

SPEAKER_01 14:58

So um, alright, that leads us to the main event here. I feel super confident about this one. I want to say it's one of the best plays of the year. We have Bloom Mohammed versus Gabriel Bonfim, welterweight matchup. We have the ex-champion versus a rising contender. What are you thinking?

SPEAKER_00 15:18

Dude, so I this is one of those weird ones. It's like I I feel like it is pretty evenly matched, and either guy has a chance to win. So for me, my best bet is Muhammad wins by decision or Bonfem wins by submission. So either decision or submission. I think that's the way it goes, dude. Muhammad loves to go to decision. Muhammad's got 18 decision wins. Bonfemme's got 13 submission wins. So and then the odds are great, too. So the Muhammad, oh shit, there's a fly in here. By decision is at plus 150, and then submission for Bonfem is at plus 425.

SPEAKER_01 15:56

Bro, Balal's time has passed. Father time waits for nobody in MMA, and Mohammed is 37 years old. Bonfim is 28. This is one of those fights where it's the passing of the torch. Bonfeme is an absolute lock in this matchup. I got Bonfame. He could win anyway here by decision, knockout, or submission. So I'm comfortable. I can't believe he's an underdog. I think he's a plus 100 the last time I checked.

SPEAKER_00 16:23

It's yeah, it's exactly minus 120 and plus 100. So like I said, it's pretty even, you know, at this matchup. I I'm gonna pick how they win so I can get plus money, and I'll I'll take the win on either.

SPEAKER_01 16:35

Bro, I'm putting the L-word on it. Bonfem's a lock.

SPEAKER_00 16:38

Oh shit. It's a lock, but I feel like you're like six and one for the locks too, right now. So the it lunch money's locks be hidden like crazy too.

SPEAKER_01 16:48

I think I was uh I was off on Tyra. I said Tyra is for sure gonna win.

SPEAKER_00 16:54

That's the only one. Yeah, exactly. Otherwise, all your locks have been hidden like crazy.

SPEAKER_01 16:59

Alright, dude. So what's our what's our place here? Do you want to go first?

SPEAKER_00 17:04

Yeah, let me go first. I'll throw these out real quick. So let me find it. Do to do. Do to do. I got too many things going on. Alright, so I'm gonna take Ariana uh Cornelosi. She's at plus 240. So I'm gonna sprinkle just a little bit on that for the first part of the Martingale. So if she wins, then I'm done. Otherwise, I'm taking Marcus.

SPEAKER_01 17:25

Ooh, first leg is the underdog?

SPEAKER_00 17:27

Is an underdog. So I love it if I can get if I have a good underdog really early, because then I can just I can just sprinkle a little bit, right? 10 bucks will win me $24, and then I'm I'm I'm feeling good already. And then I'll just start, you know, power pressing or Martingale and from there. So like I said, I'm taking no on the fight to go the distance for the Marcus McGee and Giannis. Um I'm Bryce Mitchell, because I love Bryce Mitchell at minus 140, and then I'm taking Allen at minus 230. So I actually have four legs for the Martingale this time. The only reason why I can do that is because the first one I can bet so little being the um being an underdog. And again, I started at $100 this year, and I think I'm at $320. Even just betting like $10, $15, $20 a fighter, and then just Martingale in every time. We just need one of them to win out of those four.

SPEAKER_01 18:14

You snipe on those two.

SPEAKER_00 18:17

As long as I get one, right? So it's like I don't even have to hit at a crazy percentage. And then so I my parlay piece was uh is that right? Yeah, so I took Brandon Allen at minus two thirty, uh Costa at minus seven hundred, Iwo at three eighty, and then Chavez at minus three seventy.

SPEAKER_02 18:39

Okay. Sick. So then it plays plus money at plus one sixty-three. Let's get it.

SPEAKER_01 19:12

Like two units or something.

SPEAKER_00 19:14

Yeah, let's do that for two units at least, dude. I think I'm gonna do it for three units, bro, because you'd be hitting your lock.

SPEAKER_01 19:22

And then for like half a unit, I'm gonna parlay Mitchell and Bomb Theme.

SPEAKER_02 19:27

Okay. And then for like a quarter unit, I'm gonna take Burrito Bomb Theme and uh Mitchell. And then this and then I got a parlay that's gonna be a good one.

SPEAKER_00 19:48

Sorry.

SPEAKER_01 19:49

Uh sorry, it was Burrito, Bomb Theme, and uh Mitchell. Alright, cool. Alright, and uh this parlay is gonna pay like plus like five to eight thousand.

SPEAKER_00 20:02

That's a plus four ten right there in those three. So I like that.

SPEAKER_01 20:06

Yeah, then I punch that in now. Here's a crazy one.

SPEAKER_02 20:10

Alright, so link one, Yanni. Like two, eight. I'm sorry.

SPEAKER_00 20:37

Yeah, plus plus five thousand five hundred and fifty-two.

SPEAKER_02 20:44

We'll do that for a tenth of a unit.

SPEAKER_00 20:50

Boom. Honestly.

SPEAKER_01 20:55

Yeah, if you just this is one of those cards where honestly, if you wanted to bet every single fight, I would take the underdog on every single fight, and I honestly think you would profit.

SPEAKER_00 21:05

You uh you probably would.

SPEAKER_01 21:07

If you straight bet just single bets, all the underdogs on this card, I feel like you'll profit.

SPEAKER_00 21:14

Yeah, I think I seriously, I think there's some truth to that, dude.

SPEAKER_01 21:18

There's a lot of of live underdogs on that card. But um especially I I'll just say again, I'm so shocked that Bonfem was the underdog. I feel like um Bonfim should have been like minus 140.

SPEAKER_00 21:30

I think part of that is the the books, dude, pushing the the name recognition because they know the general public's gonna come in here and say, oh Muhammad's good, he always wins his fights and just starts slamming that, you know.

SPEAKER_01 21:42

Hey, and the UFC has been setting up some passing of the torch fights lately. Like, think about just this last weekend, Davidson Figueroa, yeah, passing the torch to Song Yedong, you know, who's a contender for the Bantamweight division.

SPEAKER_00 21:56

So Song is so good. You song is so sound, it's crazy. Yeah, yeah, he's he is wild, bro. He's wild.

SPEAKER_01 22:04

I mean, it's anything if he didn't lose that decision to O'Malley, he'd probably be uh getting the next title shot.

SPEAKER_00 22:12

Give him a couple more years, and that guy's gonna be running the division for a while.

SPEAKER_01 22:16

Yeah, I think Song definitely has an opportunity of being a champion at some point.

SPEAKER_00 22:21

He's still younger too. And then we'll see O'Malley the following week at UFC 250, too. So and that's all right.

SPEAKER_01 22:31

So those are our picks for uh UFC Fight Night, uh Bonfien versus Balal Muhammad. Uh, thank you guys for watching, and we're gonna get ready for um a good weekend of fights, and then we'll get on to UFC Freedom 250 Tapoya versus G next.

SPEAKER_00 22:47

This would be a banger of a card, too.

SPEAKER_01 22:50

So, all right, guys, mic'd up misinformed out. Boom.