Mic'd Up and Misinformed

UFC FREEDOM 250

MadDog

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0:00 | 25:47

Get ready for UFC Freedom 250! In this video, we break down the stacked fight card featuring Taporia vs. Gagey, Pereira vs. Gane, and more!

Key takeaways:

  • Taporia is a rising star and a lock against Gagey.
  • Pereira's power vs. Gane's size makes for an intriguing heavyweight clash.
  • Don't underestimate the underdog potential of fighters like Zahabi and Lewis.

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:30 Taporia vs. Gagey Breakdown
02:00 Pereira vs. Gane Analysis
05:00 Zahabi vs. O'Malley Preview
08:00 Lewis vs. Hokett Discussion
12:00 Main Event Predictions

What's your biggest challenge with betting on UFC fights? Drop it in the comments!

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#UFCFreedom250 #MMA #FightNight

SPEAKER_02

The card of the year, the card everybody's been waiting for. The moment is finally almost arrived. We have UFC Freedom 250 Tapoya Verskechi at the White House. Are you ready for this mad dog?

SPEAKER_00

I love it, dude. This this card is so stacked up, man. I don't think we've seen it like a card this stacked with talent in a long time. Like I'm talking about years. Like literally every fight is basically a banger here. It's crazy.

SPEAKER_02

I think it's a decent card, but I I can't help but wish that McGregor would have got on this card. I know he's matched up with Holloway uh weeks or weeks later, but I wish that they would have put Connor on this card. But I am happy with it, but I think that um it it hasn't um been up to the level that I thought it would have been. I I was expecting maybe one more massive matchup on there. I think Nunitz and Kayla would have been perfect. I think that would have been a perfect addition five to the to the card. John Jones would have been great, Connor would have been great, um, maybe even Islam would have been great, but I would just feel like they could have put on one more banger.

SPEAKER_00

They could have squeezed on one more. Yeah, McGregor would have been the best, dude.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah. So um, and I feel like McGregor and Chandler would have been a great matchup still. I know that they moved on from that fight, but I feel like Max is a lot more dangerous than Chandler was to uh McGregor. I mean, I'd be wanting to fight Chandler over Max.

SPEAKER_00

And Holloway's been so much more active, dude. McGregor's been off for so long.

SPEAKER_02

You just chose that. It's gonna pay more, but I feel like Chandler would have paid a good amount too. But anyways, let's get into this card. Um we got some locks on here.

SPEAKER_00

For sure. It's just the unfortunate part of the odds are freaking ridiculous on a few of these.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, and you know what? They're gonna get even crazier because the the betting money that's put into this card, especially uh the week of the fight, these odds are gonna go change even more dramatically. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if Tapuria goes to like a minus like eight, nine hundred.

SPEAKER_00

Which is crazy.

SPEAKER_02

It's gonna be crazy.

SPEAKER_00

It's gonna be crazy.

SPEAKER_02

Alright, dude. So first fight of the night, we have Steve Garcia versus Diego Lopez. Do you have the odds on this fight?

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, so Diego Lopez minus 180, Garcia plus 150. I mean, I do like Diego. I think Diego's hard to fade. His only loss right recently was Davolkanowski. So I mean, I think he is good. I I don't know. This might be a little bit of an upset, but I really like Diego on this one.

SPEAKER_02

So is Diego's the favorite at what?

SPEAKER_00

Diego at minus 180.

SPEAKER_02

Okay. You're taking him?

SPEAKER_00

I'm taking Diego Lopez, yeah.

SPEAKER_02

I feel like if he fights smart, he should win the fight. But I feel like the odds are the way they are because it's probably gonna be standing a stand-up matchup where they're standing and trading. The boxing goes to Garcia's side, but in terms of mixing it up with the kicks and punches, I feel like that favors Diego. I'm gonna take Garcia as an underdog here. I'm not personally gonna play it, but I feel like Garcia could ruin a lot of people's nights betting-wise because all the public money, in my opinion, will be going on Diego. And by fight night, he probably jumps up to a minus 230 to 250 range.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, that that could be part of the problem. So the odds now, I like it. A minus 180 because I do leave.

SPEAKER_02

If you're taking Diego, take him now.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, take him.

SPEAKER_02

The odds are gonna inflate. If you're taking Garcia, wait till fight night, because he'll be an even bigger underdog, I guarantee it.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, that's I like that. That's a good that's a good option, dude. That's probably the best. So now this next one is a lock, dude.

SPEAKER_02

Alright, we got Bo Nickel, America's America's wrestling man versus Kyle Dawkins. Who's Kyle's still a threat, bro? I feel like if it's standing on the feet, Dawkins has a chance. He's not bad on the ground, but Nickel is just levels on the ground above uh Kyle Dawkins.

SPEAKER_00

I mean, he he's just he's such a good wrestler and grappler, dude. I don't know how Bo Nichols doesn't get the job done. And same thing, a minus 330, it's like you better put him in your parlay now. It is most of the time.

SPEAKER_02

Nickel's odds are gonna jump like crazy too, bro. He'll be a minus five, six hundred on fighting. I guarantee you.

SPEAKER_00

100% guaranteed. Even though there's less fights on this card, this will probably be one of the biggest betting fights in a long time.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah. Oh, this I think this card will be the number one uh gambled on fight card that's ever existed.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, exactly. I think so, bro. I think so. There's just so much hype going into this card.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah. Hey, your uh your screen's freezing up a little bit, but I can still hear you, okay? Alright. Alright, but um yeah, I feel like Nickel, his only loss was to um De Ritter, and he got knocked out by him, but that's because he's trying to be too cute and keep his standing on the feet too long. Where Nichol should have just taken De Ritter down immediately and wrestled him. But I think he learned a lot from that fight, and going forward, you know, he's not gonna lose to a guy like Kyle Dawkins. Nichols a serious contender.

SPEAKER_00

Just like you said with Mitchell, dude, I think that makes a difference. Sometimes these guys come in and then they get humbled and they go, okay, that's part of my game I need to work on and not not allow myself to get exposed like that again.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, 100%. So, yeah, Nick Nichols a lock on that one. Next up, we have a really good stylistic matchup. We have uh Mauricio Rufi versus Michael Chandler. Chandler's been really inactive. Um, he waited years for that McGregor matchup, and you know, it's it's he's wasted so much time being inactive when in the past he has been a pretty active fighter, and then Roofy is an up-and-coming contender. Um, you know, he's looking to you know um climb up the rankings, you know, being a young guy.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, you gotta love the fighting nerds, bro. That's all I'm gonna say. You gotta love the fighting nerds here. Roofy all the way, dude. Chandler, I think he's only won one of his last five or six fights. Like you said, he's been inactive, he's basically aging out. I don't I almost don't see him fighting again after this card. I think he should just take this high note, take this freedom 250, and just be done after this. But the odds are ridiculous. Roofy at minus 650.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, I think those odds make it to where you can't really play this fight. Um, Chandler's only path to victory is by utilizing his wrestling, winning on control time, or maybe doing a ground impound uh knockout if he is able to take Roofy down and hold him down. But I just feel like you know, BSD did this to Roofy, but BSD is levels above Chandler at this point in their careers, and he's not gonna Chandler's not gonna be able to do that. I think this is a perfect matchup for Roofy to get it to get a huge knockout in front of uh you know the universe on TV and get his name recognition going up.

SPEAKER_00

100%, dude. This is gonna just move him right up the ranks, quick.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, Roofy is gonna win that one for sure. But those odds are a little too much for me.

SPEAKER_00

It's ridiculous.

SPEAKER_02

Next up, we got Josh Hokett, uh, a guy that a lot of people do not like on the microphone. He's very controversial, but he's also uh landed himself on the White House card because of his personality. And he's fighting Derek Lewis, Trump's favorite fighter.

SPEAKER_00

This is one of those fights where Hokkitt should win, but if he gets caught in the dogfight, by all means, Lewis always has a chance at any minute. Even if Lewis is falling backwards, half knocked out, he could still knock you out, bro. Like Lewis is just one of those crazy, unbelievable scrappers where it's like no matter what's happening, he's still live no matter what, at any moment. So I think Hoket can can win and get the job done if he fights super smart. Like you said, if he's got a smart, you know, fight IQ in there, but if he allows himself to get caught up in that dog fight, Lewis definitely has a puncher's chance, dude. So Lewis at plus 265 and Hoket at minus 345 or 340. It's kind of Hoket on a parlay or take the underdog.

SPEAKER_02

Bro, Derek Lewis by knockout. Let's go.

SPEAKER_00

Let's go, he says. And he even calls it by knockout. Let's see. What are the options?

SPEAKER_02

The lights are gonna the lights are gonna be too bright for Hoket. He's gonna talk all that trash in the press conference. But when it gets down to it, when the lights come on, Derek Lewis is gonna handle pressure better than Hokit will. This will be a great learning lesson for Hoket. And Lewis is gonna give us one of the classic, genuine, best fight of the night post-fight speeches.

SPEAKER_00

I love it, dude. I love it. As long as he keeps his pants on, everyone's gonna be happy.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, bro. And can you imagine if Derek Lewis gets the mic, everybody in the area is gonna be holding their breath, like, oh my god, Derek, please don't say anything too crazy.

SPEAKER_00

You just don't know what he's gonna do either.

SPEAKER_02

But that he he represents America.

SPEAKER_00

100% better than Hoket does. I'll give you that, bro. I'll give you that.

SPEAKER_02

Derek Lewis represents America better than Hoket. I'll say that.

SPEAKER_00

I love it.

SPEAKER_02

Alright, next up we have um Amen Zahabi versus Sean O'Malley. The Sugar Show is back uh after getting a big win um against Song Yeedong, I believe was his last fight. So O'Malley's trying to get his way back in title contention. Zahabi is a rising contender. What do you who do you got here?

SPEAKER_00

I like Zahabi, dude. He hasn't lost in five years. I mean, I think this guy's really riding momentum. He seems to keep growing after each fight. And O'Malley doesn't necessarily do the best with wrestlers sometimes. So I think if if uh Zahabi's smart, dude, he'll come in here and grapple a little bit, you know, tee off and then shoot in, try to take him down. I know O'Malley's been trying to work on his submission in jujitsu more, but he's he's really good on his feet, but he just doesn't quite have that that transitional stage, you know, from grappling to the submission. So I think Zahabi can get the job done here and and really again cause another upset on this card. And then the let's see, we Zahabi at plus 320, O'Malley at minus 420, and you already know all the casuals be betting the crap out of O'Malley, too.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, they're gonna be taking him by a knockout, they're gonna have him on all their parlays, and I completely agree with you. And I like what you said. This is really a matter of is Zahabi gonna use his fight IQ in this matchup because if he does utilize the wrestling and tries to attempt uh as many takedowns as possible, then I feel like the fight's his to lose. But if he stands and trades with O'Malley and gives O'Malley too much time on the feet, then O'Malley's just gonna pick him apart and make him too scared to even shoot takedowns. So that first round is gonna tell us everything, but I think for the odds, um, Zahabi is a lock. So not a lock, not a lock, but for the odds, I think it's it's Zahabier pass.

SPEAKER_00

So I yeah, and I think like you said, let wait till towards the you know fight night and let Zuhabi get you know bought down, basically. Because everyone's gonna be slamming O'Malley.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, if you're taking him if you're taking O'Malley, which I would not recommend, take him now.

SPEAKER_00

Yep, yeah, and give Zahabi.

SPEAKER_02

His odds are gonna inflate. Yeah. So that's a tough matchup. Um but it looking at the odds, Zahabi. I mean, I feel like if if I was making the odds, I would have put it at Darn near a coin flip.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, I mean, yeah, it should be closer, honestly.

SPEAKER_02

Even if it was at the end of the day, I mean, maybe a Mali minus like 150, maybe minus 160, but that those odds are crazy.

SPEAKER_00

The odds are crazy, bro, for sure. I think that's one of those traps, dude. Just getting the public money, knowing they're betting on the name, not on the strategy.

SPEAKER_02

Alright, man. Next up we have the Co-Man event. This is gonna be an absolute banger. Finally, we have a spark in the heavyweight division after a long layoff of just inactivity from the top of the division. Yeah, we got Augs Prayer moving up, and he's fighting Cyril Gun for the title. Who do you got?

SPEAKER_00

I kind of like Gone here, dude. I think I don't think Pierre has felt this much power coming from a heavyweight, dude. I think Nan's really got some good, you know, fighting ability. It still could go either way. It is a pick up and minus 110 on either side, so I don't feel like you could go wrong either direction. But I do like Gone here a little bit more, man, just just because of the power in his hands, honestly.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, I mean, Gone is probably gonna be a lot bigger come fight night.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02

Um, because he's you know naturally more of a heavyweight uh set for bot his his body's more set for a heavyweight frame. Um, but I like prayer in this matchup. I don't like confidently say this, but I like prayer to win. I think he's gonna his gas tank is gonna be a little bit better. I think he's gonna have the speed, and honestly, I think prayer is gonna have the power as well. Um God might I feel like Gon's gonna be able to take punches better than Prairie because he's used to taking heavy punches, but um is Prayer's chin gonna hold up? That's my question.

SPEAKER_00

That's I just don't think Pierre has felt this much power coming from the other side before. Now, Pierre has got a far better record and a lot more overall, right? With the kickboxing and everything else. I mean, he's been in the ring probably 60.

SPEAKER_02

You know, it's not gonna go to the ground. Steril is not good on the ground, they're both not very good on the ground at all. So it's gonna be standing and trading. So whose gas tank is gonna um hold up throughout five rounds and who's gonna land first?

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, yeah, I I agree, dude. So I don't think you're wrong picking on either side. You pick your favorite here and go for it. But it I probably KO or the fight doesn't go to the finish, honestly.

SPEAKER_02

I'm taking prayer right here, but not confidently. And I would not be surprised. Um I would fade you in terms of saying that it might go to a decision, they might respect each other so much that it might be kind of a boring fight where neither guy throws too much because they don't want to risk getting knocked out, and a lot of people are gonna be betting uh knockout on both sides.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, well, there probably is some truth to that, dude.

SPEAKER_02

But realistically, two heavyweights with heavyweights with crazy power, five rounds, probably not happening.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, that's what I was gonna say. I think with the heavyweights, especially going that far, I think someone's getting KO'd here. And knowing that neither of them really want to wrestle or grapple, it's you know, they're gonna be teeing off on each other.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, I would be shocked. The over-under for a takedown shot on either side is gonna be set at like 0.5 or 1.5 max.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02

Alright, we got the main event. This is a crazy lightweight title fight. We have this should have been Tapuria versus Patty Pimblet, but Gagey had to dog him out and get that title shot. We have Gecy versus Tapoya. I wish Gecy was more in his prime. I feel like he's getting a little on the older side, but nonetheless, this is still a good matchup.

SPEAKER_00

I think I think this is a great matchup, dude. And if Gachy can do what he did to Pimblet, dude, and really hold off the wrestling and the grappling part, this could be closer than we expect. I still feel like Tapoya is gonna win overall, regardless. But I think this might be closer than the odds makers appear to be, just from seeing how Gecy transitioned into his wrestling. Before a year ago, I would have said Gagey would get wrestled out guaranteed. But after seeing what he did to Pimlet, dude, I I think he's got a little bit more skill in that transition from standing to grappling. I think this fight's gonna be a lot closer, but I do still like Toperia overall. But a minus 650, that's a tough one, dude. So Toperia by decision is probably your best bet here.

SPEAKER_02

I feel like if you if you're taking Gagey, he only wins by getting a lucky knockout, but it's not happening.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, I just don't see it either.

SPEAKER_02

I mean, he could when I look at this matchup, I say, okay, Gecy's out of his prime, he's in his late 30s, he's he's been one foot in, one foot out for a while. Um, number two, I think Tapuri is just so skilled. I don't think anybody in the division could beat him. And his toughest and only tough matchup is our monster at this point, but it's not Gecy. Um, and then also I feel like uh what was I gonna say about uh Gachi? Oh, Gecy folds whenever the light Gachy folds in title fights. You know, when he fought Habib, you know, he got finished, and then when he fought Charles Oliveira, he got finished in title fights. So when the lights are bright and Gachy is fighting in a title fight, you know, he usually folds. So I look for that streak to continue here, and Tapuria gets a knockout here.

SPEAKER_00

And like you said, both of those fighters really use their ground game to make the difference and beat up Gecy. But I think he just evolved a little bit, like we saw with Pimlet. So either Pimlet's not that great on the ground or Gachy got better defending the takedown, and that's what made the difference, right? So I mean again, I don't really see Gecy winning necessarily, but I think it's gonna be closer than the odds makers make it look, and I think it's gonna be closer than a lot of people expect it to be. But I think Taporia still gets the job done, and just a minus 650 is tough.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, 100%. But bro, I will say Tapoya is a luck. I feel like um that fight with Armand is the real fight to make, and then if he wins that, then they can have that discussion with Islam. But um, the only thing that's knocking on Tapoya also is the inactivity since he went through that divorce and went through some emotional stuff. But that's yeah, so that could play a little factor, but if his mentals are right, I just don't see him losing. I mean, I think if he was fighting prime Geechee, he would still be like at least a minus 300. I just think Taporia is just he's one of the all-time best DOC fighters to, you know, and he's uh champion of lightweight and featherweight, so he's already one of the greatest. So and to think that he's just in the at the early stages of his prime still.

SPEAKER_00

What do you say? I think he's better. His fight IQ is better, he's got the standing, he's got the ground game. I mean, it really his best bet is probably to shoot and try to go for a submission and just win by control time of nothing else. So I mean Toporia's got more path to victories, everything points to him just at minus 650. And what do you think? These mods will be like minus 800, minus 900 by the time the fight comes around.

SPEAKER_02

I wouldn't be I think he'll at least go to minus 800, yeah.

SPEAKER_00

Right, dude. So I mean it there's take him by decision or submission. That's probably your best bet. Trying to get some value on this card.

SPEAKER_02

Alright, man, you ready to put together some parlays?

SPEAKER_00

Let's do it, dude. Now I'm not gonna do a martingale for this one because one, I'm gonna be in a plane, so I'm not gonna be able to bet live, and there's just not a lot of value with so little fighters basically.

SPEAKER_01

Alright, I'm taking.

SPEAKER_00

I see if I put one together, but I guess I didn't, dude. I was thinking I did. Oh yeah, I did. So I did Roofy, Nickel, Tapuria, and Hoke. So that gives you plus 125. So one unit there.

SPEAKER_02

Dang, my play was pretty close to yours, bro. I'd have my parlay was Nickel, Roofy, and Tapuria. And it's probably like minus 150 or something.

SPEAKER_00

Minus 136. So I mean, I honestly let's just both do that. Let's just both do that. We'll do two units on that. And I'll say, let's just agree to do that overall.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, take take Hokit off.

SPEAKER_00

I'd take Hokit off and do that. I like that better, dude. Honestly, I like to get it. That's a great parlay. And again, without a lot of value on this card, I wouldn't go crazy. I think Bet Smart, even though there's a lot of you know, champions and previous champions and a lot of name recognition, just don't go crazy on this card.

SPEAKER_02

Hey bro, let's do a fun parlay for like a tenth of a unit.

SPEAKER_00

Alright, let's do it.

SPEAKER_02

Just a small parlay. Let's do z we let's choose the hobby and Derek Lewis is a parlay.

SPEAKER_00

Oh shit, dude. That's crazy. Alright, I'm down.

unknown

Plus.

SPEAKER_00

Plus 1430.

SPEAKER_01

So about 10 bucks would pay about 150. That's pretty good. Yeah, exactly. Five bucks would pay about 75.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, I'll take that, dude. Let's do it. Yeah, I think that's good. I like that, dude.

SPEAKER_02

So yeah, it's gonna be bangers. The only one I'm really interested and uh curious about is how that prayer fight goes versus gone. Other than that, I feel pretty pretty and then Hoke and Lewis could definitely go either way, but other than that, I feel like everything else is gonna be um there's gonna be some dominant wins here.

SPEAKER_00

Those are the two fights I'm looking forward to the most, dude, because I think either guy could really turn it up. And it's like which one of those two is gonna get the fight of the night, you know?

SPEAKER_01

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02

So all right, those are our picks for UFC 250, the freedom card. So tail us, fade us, whatever you want to do, but those are our picks.

SPEAKER_00

Just like, bet, comment, show us your signature.

SPEAKER_02

If you got Geechee winning, tell us why Geechee's gonna win. I want to hear it.

SPEAKER_00

Right? And again, we you never know, like you said, with Tipuri coming off the you know, the little small. Break he took the divorce. How's the weight cuts going? Did he put on excess weight while he was, you know, dealing with his personal life? So the same thing. You gotta just watch, try to look at weigh-ins and see, you know, how people look. Uh, who's the guy that came off the weigh-ins last weekend? That looked he almost passed out coming off the freaking stage.

SPEAKER_01

Um, I forgot, bro, to be honest with you.

SPEAKER_00

I'm not sure it's stuff like that that you want to look for and watch because then you see that and you already know, like, alright, I gotta stay away from this fight because anything could happen here. Oh, it was Wellmaker, right?

SPEAKER_01

It might have been. I I don't remember to be honest with you, bro.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, I think it was Wellmaker, dude. He bet he practically was like stumbling off the stage. It looked like he was about to pass out. He was having a hard time cutting weight. So it's it's things like that. So just you know, just pay attention, look at the way in, see what happens, and then try to again. But just bet smart. Don't get crazy.

SPEAKER_02

100%, bro. So all right, guys. Good luck on your bets if you're putting some in. And also, um the finals will probably uh be they might there might be a uh they might be over by this time, but um, we have the Knicks versus the Spurs, and that's exactly what I had bet throughout the entire season that the finals would be. So I got some crazy tickets right now, bro.

SPEAKER_00

That's what you've been saying. You said you got over 20 tickets between the two teams, so that's that's outstanding, bro. And I got nine tickets to win the Stanley Cup, so they won the game.

SPEAKER_02

And you probably got insane odds on that too. And I picked the Hurricane to win the Stanley Cup. So yeah, it's crazy. The future's been really good. I'm usually not to brag, but I'm usually pretty good about future bets. Like whoever I pick usually goes far. Like for NCA basketball, I was really hard heavy on Arizona, and he they did lose in the championship, but I mean, they made it to the championship, and it's hard to pick a team to make it that far.

SPEAKER_00

Was it the Dodgers, dude? You hit like a crazy amount of money last year.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, I hit uh like a $25 for $10,000. Uh the Dodgers on her.

SPEAKER_00

This guy hits crazy future bets sometimes.

SPEAKER_02

So, but you know, knocking on wood, hopefully I um keep hitting because I I did lose a lot on that Arizona championship because I didn't hitch much. But um the NBA finals I'm locked in because I got money on both sides here.

SPEAKER_00

So let's go, baby.

SPEAKER_02

But all right, guys. Mike'd up and misinformed out, and we'll give our picks for the following week. We then I think the next headliner is uh Horigucci versus versus um what's his name? Cape. Yeah, Minel Cop. Yeah, that's a banger, bro. That's a banger.

SPEAKER_00

Let's see real quick. I'm gonna get a little preview. And then Fazev is the next one. So I would we have some good fights coming up, dude. Michael Pierre. I mean UFC 329, like you said, the beginning of the July, that's the Connor McGregor Holloway fight. Patty Pimenton's BSD on that fight, Batista versus Sanhagen. I mean good stuff coming up, dude. Brad Savaras versus uh Mark Berriott, Chase Hooper's back, Kevin Holland's back.

SPEAKER_02

Hey, I've never been Chase Hooper again, bro.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, that's a tough one, dude.

SPEAKER_01

Honestly, I feel like he just flopped, man.

SPEAKER_00

He came in with so much, you know, hype and then just kind of fell apart.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02

Alright guys. We out.