Mic'd Up and Misinformed
The hosts discuss the upcoming UFC Fights and NFL predictions. They analyze the fight cards, focusing on new fighters and their potential struggles in the UFC. The conversation shifts to NFL predictions, evaluating team performances and playoff implications as the season progresses. The hosts share insights on betting strategies for both UFC and NFL, emphasizing the unpredictability of sports and the importance of experience and injuries in making predictions. In this episode, the hosts dive deep into the current NFL season, analyzing various matchups and betting strategies. They discuss teams in tank mode, high-stakes games, and potential upsets, providing insights into player performances and coaching dynamics. The conversation covers a range of games, highlighting key factors that could influence outcomes. The hosts also share their betting strategies and predictions, making it a must-listen for sports betting enthusiasts.
Mic'd Up and Misinformed
UFC Kape VS Horiguchi Take the underdog
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Get ready for UFC Fight Night predictions! In this episode, we break down the exciting matchups, including the main event between Horiguchi and Kape.
Key takeaways:
- Horiguchi vs. Kape: A revenge match with title implications.
- Predictions for undercard fights featuring rising stars.
- Insights on betting odds and strategies for each fight.
Welcome back to Miked Up and Misinformed with your co with your host Mad Dog and Lunch Money. Today we're going to be giving out our predictions for the cop versus uh Horaguchi UFC fight night coming up on June 20th. We got a lot of new names on this card, but um nonetheless it's still gonna be pretty exciting.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, there's there's definitely some new people on here, some faces I don't recognize.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, so um if you're if you're a casual, you know, you're not gonna know a lot of these names. I mean, we watch UFC all the time. There's a lot a lot of names here that are unfamiliar to us as well. So we'll be learning some new fighters and um yeah. The only the only one that's that's like has title implications is the Minel cop and uh Koji Horaguchi fight for the main event. Other than that, um there's you know, every fight's meaningful, but none of these are like title contention type of fights on the card.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, exactly.
SPEAKER_00Alright, so first one of the night, we have Shane Collins versus Atari Tanza Tanza Lovi. Who do you got here?
SPEAKER_02So I I lean towards Tanza Lovi because he likes to box and he's got seven KOs. But both of these guys, it's their first time in the UFC. I think maybe maybe one of them was on the contender series and lost, but um it must have been Tanzalovi. And then the other guy saying, I don't he hasn't fought in the UFC at all. So and I think Shane took this fight on like last minute, like yeah. So I I'm gonna take you know Tanzaloni, but these are one of those, these these two first fights especially, it's kind of like you know, stay away from or try not to get too crazy caught up in it, because it's just it's probably not the best thing. But they do have Tanzalovi as the underdog at plus 165. So knowing that he's had six knockouts, he was training for another fight. I I think you know, I like that the odds there more than anything. And then Shane Collins comes in at minus 195.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I think the value's more on Atari, but I'm gonna take Shane Collins. I think I think Shane's gonna win this fight by decision.
SPEAKER_02Get it, boss. He called it out.
SPEAKER_00Next up we have Carl Rosa versus Luana Santos. Um, may I ask, what's the odds on this fight?
SPEAKER_02It's pretty even. Rosa at minus 125, and Santos hit the underdog at plus 105.
SPEAKER_00About a coin flip.
SPEAKER_02But yeah, basically a coin flip, yeah.
SPEAKER_00So I'm Rosa's 19 and 7, Santos is 10 and 2. Um, I know Rosa's been in the UFC for a long time.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, Rosa's been around for a while, and she's definitely a dog. I mean, she's not going to be an easy competitor, but I like Santos' grappling and submission skills better, and she's only lost one fight in her last eight fights, so I mean she's been on a heater.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I would say she's definitely more on the incline, and she's only 26 years old. Um, Carl Rosa, if anything, is more on the decline. You know, being at 31 years old, um, I don't feel like her game has grown much in the last couple years. So um, in this matchup, especially for you tell me those odds, I really like Luana Santos.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, Santos for the underdog is definitely your best bet here.
SPEAKER_00Alright, next up we have Leon Shabazian versus Levon Shekeli. I think Shabazian is um Edmund's brother, but but I'm not 100% sure.
SPEAKER_02I yeah, I would believe that. So Shabazian comes in at plus 275, and Levon is at minus 340. So I mean there's some big odds here. I mean, he's one of the bigger um favorites on the card. And Levin's got 11 KOs out of his 14 fights. So I mean, same thing. This guy's a boxer for sure. And same thing. I think I think Leon had one um contender series, but both of these guys, this is their first real fight in the UFC. So again, it's one of those fights, it's like they come in, you don't know what's gonna happen. They're you know, they're under all the lights, all the fanfare.
SPEAKER_00So I I you know really I I say stay away, but yeah, it looks like so Shabazian's coming from tough enough. Um his last four fights have all been wins by submission. So, in my opinion, if you're gonna take Shabazian, take him by um submission to get even better value. And um, other than that, I think the fight is Chikelli's to lose. Um, I'm gonna take Chi Kelly by knockout here.
SPEAKER_02Love it. Yeah, I think I so I'd say you could probably bet either side and get plus money.
SPEAKER_00But honestly, it's really hard to predict who's gonna win that fight because both guys do lack UFC experience and are looking to make a name for themselves. So um it's a huge step going from another low-level organization to the UFC.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, a hundred percent.
SPEAKER_00Alright, next up, I don't know too much about either one of these guys, so my prediction will be a pass on this, but uh, who do you have for the Gaston? Balanos and Michael Aswell fight.
SPEAKER_02So I the same thing. This is kind of like a stay away. I like the under here personally. Both of these guys are looking for KOs, they're both heavy boxers, so I wouldn't be surprised if one of them gets caught in the dog fight. Gastone's three and two out of his last five. Um, Michael Aswell is two and three out of his last five. So it's it's kind of a tough one on that side, and the odds are kind of crazy. Uh Aswell's at minus four forty, and Gaston's at plus three forty-five, but the under is at plus one thirty. So I think the under two and a half is your best bet on this one.
SPEAKER_00Okay. Yeah, I really don't have. I mean, I'm looking at Aswell's resume, and his two recent losses were to um Aki and Luke Riley. And I know Luke Riley is a serious contender, so um, I'm leaning him, but I feel like the odds, you know, he's too big as well's too big of a favorite here.
SPEAKER_02I can't take it at minus 440. That's tough. So that's crazy. Look for one of them to get the finish at at plus 130.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. Alright, man. Next up we have um Alan Nasamento versus Mitch Repo Mitch Raposo. Now I'm Raposo's 27 and Nasamento's 34 years old.
SPEAKER_02I'm surprised Alan's on the undercard and not on the main card for this one, dude. Honestly. Alan hasn't lost in five years. He's the better grappler. I'm I'm taking Allen, and the odds are minus 195, so I like the odds there too. Mitch Raposo's at plus 165.
SPEAKER_00So it looks like it's hard to get him out of there, but he's lost two of his last three. And what's Nasimento? How big of a favorite is he?
SPEAKER_02Minus 195.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I think that's fine. I'd probably I think that's a justifiable parlay piece.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, 100%. And he hasn't lost in five years. So I'm anything.
SPEAKER_00Looks like he's ready for some more of some serious contenders.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, so that's why I said I was surprised to see he was on the undercard.
SPEAKER_00Alright, man. So I'm I'm with you on that. Nastamento, probably you're gonna both be in our parlays, I'm assuming.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, parlay. I think that's my first on the Martingale.
SPEAKER_00Next up, we have a women's bantamweight matchup. We have Melissa Mullins versus Bia Mosquita. Mosquita 7-0. Mullins is 7-2, um, close in age, 35 and 34, and uh close to reach advantage as well. So, who do you got in this one?
SPEAKER_02So, this is kind of a boxer versus grappler. So I think Mosquita can get it done as long as she focuses on her grappling and wrestling and even just focuses on control time overall. But it minus 700, I think she's the biggest favorite on this card. I mean, that the odds are ridiculous for sure. Uh, Melissa's at plus 500, and they they even have it under one and a half. So, I mean, I most of the time the fights go the distance, but both of these girls, you know, again, Melissa's looking for the KO, Mosquito's looking for the submission. This is one of those fights where really I would personally just stay away or put Mosquito on uh, you know, an early parlay if you wanted to, and you know, hope, but a minus 700, there's really just no value here.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, that's crazy, bro. It's when I see a minus 700, it makes me want to say dogger pass. I do feel like B is gonna win that fight, though, but um that's definitely a pass for me.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, there's just no value there.
SPEAKER_00Next up we have Andre Lima versus Kevin Borjas. Let's see. I'm looking, they look similar in age, reach, high, weight, okay. Everything looks pretty similar. Lima is undefeated, and Borjas is 10 and 5.
SPEAKER_02And Borjas, I think, has been on a losing streak, right? I think he's one and four.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, Lima has had you know, after winning by di unanimous decision on the contender series, he's won f um four fights since then, um, two decisions and two finishes. Let's see what Borjas is written. I know Borjas has been in the UFC a lot longer.
SPEAKER_02Yeah.
SPEAKER_00His last two losses were to Suma Darje and um Emmanuel Rodriguez. So two solid guys, but dude, I'm leaning. I'm I I'm gonna say that uh Andre stays undefeated in this matchup.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I I like Lima here, but it's the same thing. Minus 650. There's just not a lot of value here. Dang, minus 650. Yeah, and then plus 475. But I do like Lima a lot here. I think he gets the job done no matter what.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I like Lima could win by knockout or decision. If you're gonna take Borjas, um, you know, anybody has the puncher's chance. So if you're gonna take Borjas, probably just take him by knockout, and that'll give you a big payout.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, exactly.
SPEAKER_00But I'm not playing that. Next up we have Vinicius Oliveira versus Andre Feely. Vinisius was on his way to a title shot, but then he had got stopped by, I believe it was um who is it, um Mario Bautista. Bautista, yeah. Yeah, because Oliveira came into that fight. One thing about him is you have to really pay attention to his weight cuts because um he's a guy that cuts a lot of weight to make featherweight. And um, you know, he's a monster, but it, you know, he really battles the weight scale uh during fight week making weight. Andre Feely is a seasoned veteran. He's been in the UFC for a long time. Um 25 and 13. I mean, he's probably I would bet you he's had at least 30 UFC fights. Um, he's 35. Vinitius is 30 years old. Vinicius should win this fight, but it's just for me, the question is is how professional is he gonna be in showing up, making way, and you know, making sure he's ready to go, versus with Andre Feely, even though he's probably a sizable underdog, I'm imagining, for the odds, um, you know that he's gonna show up on way, be a professional, and he's also a dog, you know, he's not a bad kickboxer and does not have a bad ground game either.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I mean, I I couldn't have said it any better, dude. Feely at plus two thirty, Oliveira is at minus two eighty. I do like Vinicius overall on this fight, but this is one of the ones that you really want to wait to see. If he looks like he's exhausted and tired coming on the scale, you know his probably conditioning isn't the best, and he's probably not gonna last all three rounds. So I mean, it's kind of pick him to win in the first or second round or take Feely by decision. Um, I I think either one of these guys could submit the other, so that this is kind of a weird fight to pick. I do like Vinicius, but at minus 280, again, there's just there's not a huge value there, but I do like him overall.
SPEAKER_00Bro, I think I'm gonna take Feely as the underdog. I feel like the public is gonna be on Oliveira on Parlais, and you know, again, I know you're kind of the same feeling as me, but I know Feely's gonna come in fight ready, and I would not be surprised if Vinicius has a bad weight cut. The odds might shift in Feely's favor. And again, I feel like public will be on Vinicius, and uh if it goes past round one, it's Feely's fight to lose because Feely's has a pretty good gas tank. And after round one, um, again, I think Feely should be the favorite if he can make it in the past the first five minutes. So I'm gonna take a step step dog.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I agree. And like you said, Feely's been around so long, he's seen everything. There's there's nothing you can throw at him that he hasn't seen or, you know, a fight that he hasn't been in, basically. He's got the experience too.
SPEAKER_00If Vinisius is 23-4, you know, and I'm not hating on him. I I think he's a fantastic fighter, but the way that he lost to Mar Mario Bautista, I feel like this is this fight right here is gonna determine if he needs to change weight classes and go up to um 155, go up to the lightweight division. Because again, I've said 100 times now, but he has a really hard time making weight. So let's take Feely as a dog, bro. I love it. Next up we have this gonna be hard to pronounce. I got my um tablet here. Murtazali Magamedov versus Melsik Bagdas Ryan. Magdas Ryan. I like it. Melsik is eight and three, and Murtazali is ten and no. So Mart Mar, of course, uh Magamedov has a zero on the lost column.
SPEAKER_02100%, dude. Do not bet against Dakistani fighters. What's what's the odds on this, bro? They can out wrestle everybody, basically. Uh Magamadov is at minus 320, and Melzeke is at plus 260. And again, the greatest.
SPEAKER_00Melzek's 34, Megamedov's only 26, Megamedov's two inches taller, and Reach is about the same.
SPEAKER_02And Melzeke just got K 0, so he's coming back in after getting knocked out. So, I mean, he's getting it's like sometimes they come in maybe not full fight. I don't want to say fight ready, but they come in maybe a little conservative to start off, and that's when he can get caught by someone who's really pushing forward.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. Yeah, I'm not fading a Magamedov, uh uh Magamedov. I'm I'm taking him.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, you can't you can't exactly, especially undefeated, and again, the younger fighter, you know, he's got the expressling experience, so everything points to him, and the odds aren't too bad for this. So at minus 320, I'm I'm gonna take him on a parlay piece. Yeah, let's do it.
SPEAKER_00Next up we have Christian Rodriguez versus Heider Emile. Um may I ask what's the odds on this one? This is a good fight.
SPEAKER_02Rodriguez at minus 180, Emile at plus 155.
SPEAKER_00Okay. So this is a featherweight matchup.
SPEAKER_02Um they both lost their last two fights, so both of them are coming in here looking for a win, too.
SPEAKER_00Well, this is a tough one, bro. So I I feel like this is gonna go to a decision. So if it I feel like I'm if I'm betting this fight, I'm taking the over because I feel like it's a coid flip. I think Rodriguez, Emil's a little bit more talented, but Rodriguez is just a dog. It's so hard to bet fade him or bet against him. And Rodriguez is also eight years younger. So for me, I think I would I'm taking Rodriguez, or I feel even safer taking um fight to go the distance.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, so over two and a half at minus 175. So I think that's a fair bet, like you said. But I uh at minus 180, I do like Rodriguez, so I'm definitely taking Rodriguez here.
SPEAKER_00And neither guy is the big finisher, and these guys are lighter, so typically uh the lighter the weight, the it typically goes to um decisions more often. So I'm definitely looking at this. Uh maybe Rodriguez wins a split or a unanimous decision here.
SPEAKER_02Love it. Same same page on that one.
SPEAKER_00Dude, next up, I hate to say it, but this is a lock. Navajo Sterling is going to absolutely dominate Ian Kutalaba. Ian has a punches chance. I love the Hulk dude. I think he's a fun fighter to watch. But his gas tank expires three minutes into the first round, and um, he's been in the fight. He's been in the UFC for a long time, but um, he's not a contender anymore. Navajo Sterling is a serious contender. Um, I wouldn't be surprised if he fights for the belt within the next two years. Um, this is just another stepping stone on his path um to contention.
SPEAKER_02100%, dude. I Sterling is at minus 310, but like you said, I think he's a lock. I I would take him all day against Ian. I mean, he can he has more pack to victories. He can kind of do whatever he wants. Like you said, unless Ian catches him with a puncher's chance in the first round, he's just gonna get out wrestled, out. You know, he's his conditioning's never as great. He's just gonna get beat up in every facet. So as long as Sterling can kind of keep the distance and focus on his fight the first round, and then he could just maul the shit out of him the next two if he wants.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, just weather the storm in the first and you're cruising the rest of the fight. And you know, I wouldn't do any pro bets on Sterling because I think in rounds two or three he could win by um knockout, submission, or he could cruise to a decision. So I think it's safer just putting him into a parlay piece. But for me, I would take Sterling up to minus 500, to be honest with you. So I'm yeah, I mean it's I think that kind of tells you already that's locked into my parlay.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, minus 310. I mean, the odds are super favorable for us.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. Alright, dude. So we're Sterling to the moon. And then alright, we got our main event here. We have um Kyoji Horig Horigucci versus Minel Cop. Dude, this is an absolute banger. I want to say whoever wins this fight will more than likely be fighting um for the championship next against Josh Van if um Pantoja's not fully ready for to come back yet.
SPEAKER_02I can see that. Now these guys did these guys did meet back in 2017 in a different um federation, and Horigucci got Cape in an arm triangle. So there's kind of a revenge fight for Cape, and uh, you know, he strategically he's got a plan already for Horigucci. So I'm taking Horiguchi, man, at the underdog position. Horiguchi at plus 135.
SPEAKER_00Wow, I would not be surprised at all if the odds flip and Horiguchi becomes the favorite on Saturday. Um there's other members that American top team where Horgucchi trains, and they say that you know he's one of the best fighters, you know, that they've ever trained with. You know, they think this guy's a serious, serious um title contender, and I don't see him losing to cop. Um I think Horogucci, the reason I'm taking him is because he has more pass to victory. He could get a submission, knockout, or decision win here. Um, I do worry about if it stays standing the entire fight fight and Horaguchi cannot mix the takedowns, then I might get a little bit nervous that cop could find a finish or win by points. Um, you know, if it's a Muay Thai kickboxing fight, now it's more of a 50-50. So um I'm I'm betting that Horguchi mixes it up well though and wins a close, close, close decision here.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I I just I don't exactly. I don't see I think Horoguchi knows he can take him down. He submitted him before already. So I think his game plan should be come in, like you said, take the wrestling, use the grappling in his advantage, and look for the submission again. Don't get caught up in the dog fight, you know.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, and cop does a good job of you know stirring the pot and getting you wound up during the fight and trying to bring out the emotions in you. The only thing I'm a little bit annoyed of, I guess, as a fan, is Horgucci's 35 years old. He had taken a pretty long break during the UFC and then came back more recently in the last like two years to fight again. And you know, he's just one of those, you know, in my opinions, another one of those what ifs. If he would have been more active, I think he could have been probably a champion defending his belt right now.
SPEAKER_02100%, dude. Yeah, but I think he still has the skill. He doesn't seem like he's a 35-year-old fighter, you know. He still seems like he's much younger. Um, and like you said, with American top team, I I think this guy, he's got all the you know, all the arrows are pointing towards him. And like we said, it seems like at least one underdog wins for the co-main or the main event every time. So everyone's gonna be a good thing.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, 2026 is the year of the underdogs, man. All the main event, um, main event underdogs are coming through. So I'm gonna have to start throwing away logic when it comes to betting on main events.
SPEAKER_02Right, dude. So everything tells me Horigucci at plus 135 is is where it's at.
SPEAKER_00Let's well, I'll tell you right now, um, he will be at the end of my parlay, so it's super hedgeable if the parlay survives the early storm.
SPEAKER_02Love it.
SPEAKER_00Alright, bro. So you want to say yours first?
SPEAKER_02Alright, so my Martingale, I'm taking Alan um Nascamento at minus 200. I'm taking Christian Rodriguez at minus 185. And then I'm going to take Oliveira at my uh minus two sixty. So again, I just need one of those three guys to win. And then I'm set. You're doing that for the Marn Gale? I'm doing that for the Marn Gill, yeah. So just I'm gonna do one parlay for one unit, Magomedov at my uh minus three twenty, Lima at minus six seventy-five, and Sterling at minus three ten. And it basically pays me even money at minus one oh one. So one unit to win one unit. And we're up four units total this year, so even though we have to do that.
SPEAKER_00Bro, sorry about the USA card. I I was um I had Alex Pereira and Ilya Taporia and was off on both of those.
SPEAKER_02I mean we both had Tapooria, so we can't be upset at that one. But we were flipped on the Alex Pereira fight. Again, I just like I said, I don't think he could handle that much that you know that much force going up in weight class. I just think he hasn't had you know that much power coming at him before, and it kind of showed whether or not some of those shots were illegal or not is another story.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, but you know, he in my opinion, what dropped Pereira was Gone's jab, and that was fair and square. That jab, you know, rocked him. So and I think Gone was picking him apart before that, clearly. So, you know, he definitely won that fight, and I think um that just shows that there's a reason that there's weight classes in the UFC. Yeah, and then fighting in general. All right, go ahead and shoot out your parlay.
SPEAKER_02That was it, that was it. So, what was it? Sterling, Oliveira, and oh no, Sterling, shit. I already forgot. Let me go back to you. Uh Sterling, Lima, and Mag Magamadev.
SPEAKER_00Okay, okay. I like that. That's a good one. Alright, so this is what I'm thinking, bro. Lake one for me, Luana Santos.
SPEAKER_02Yep, Santos.
SPEAKER_00No offense to women, but I always get so nervous that in a women's fight.
SPEAKER_02For sure, dude, for sure.
SPEAKER_00Um next up, I'm gonna throw in Neva Australian. And then um the last leg will be horguchi, and hopefully that's hedgeable. You know what? I'm gonna take I'm gonna take the over on the horguchi. No, I'm just gonna take horrice.
SPEAKER_02So plus five thirty-seven.
SPEAKER_00Okay, that's a pretty good right there.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, one unit about five units, I like that.
SPEAKER_01And then we're gonna go. Let's leave it at that. Let's do that.
SPEAKER_02I just act it up. So for a five leg parlay, plus sixteen eighty-two. So I mean that's that's great. So let's do a quarter unit on that one.
SPEAKER_00So, yeah, I was gonna say even yeah, quarter attempt, because I'm not real I'm not real um confident about Andre Feely. I just think that there's a lot of value on him.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, there's definitely some value. That's why I say I love the other picks, but Feely's the only kind of risky one. But for a quarter unit to win four units, I'll take that, dude. That's that's fair.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, so if you want to take Feely off, I think that's a pretty safe parlay, even though there's multiple legs on it. But uh, you know, like I said, I I think Feely does have some some is a live dog, you know, especially in those first like you know, Oliver gases out too.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, for sure. And like we said, that they just don't know who's gonna show up, how the weight cuts go. That's kind of the only problem with doing this so early in the week. We don't get to see, like, not even all the lines are out sometimes. We can't even see the you know the like the KO and the finish lines or you know, betting by the round specific. So I mean we're just trying to get the content out early so you guys have a chance to listen and stuff.
SPEAKER_00But we'll we'll just yeah, we record these on Wednesday evenings. So if you listen to this on Friday or Saturday, um, you know, just know that things always could change. And we we do put in if I if I think the odds, I know you're the same way, but if I think the odds are gonna shift a lot, I'll try to get a good bet in earlier in the week if I think the odds are gonna shift a lot. But other than that, I think overall it's better to probably just bet the day of the fight, to be honest, because that way you have all the data, you know, because it's a little risky, even if you or me put in a bet now early and it has good value, the weight cuts and everything are still to be determined. So it is a little bit risky. So if you're gonna if you're newbie and you're you're betting, it's safest to just bet the day of the fight that way you know how the weight cut went and you have a little more information on the your fighter.
SPEAKER_02For sure. And especially for this, like if you see the odds dramatically shifted, like you know, two or three hundred points, it's something's up. Either somebody knows something or someone was injured, or you know, someone's weight cut didn't go well, like if it's a huge shift, you know, something's up, even if you don't know what's going on.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, facts, bro. But yeah, those are picks. Um, if you had if you did like one straight bet, what what would be your safest pick on the card?
SPEAKER_02I think Sterling, dude, honestly, at minus 310, that's probably that would be my like best lock of the night, honestly. Again, the the odds are decent. I would love them to be a little bit better, like 250 or under, but I I mean I for minus 300. I think he gets the job done nine and a half out of ten times.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, bro. I th I feel the same way. I feel like, you know, because there, you know, and I know this isn't attractive to a lot of like m the majority of betters, because people want to see like a like a pretty return on your money. But you know, people with a ton of money, let's say if you're betting like I don't know, a hundred grand, you're you're winning. If you're if you're risking a hundred, you're winning thirty grand on sterling. So right, I would take thirty percent return, like a thirty.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, that's what I'm saying.
SPEAKER_00So if I was a big better and I'm looking for a lock, I think Sterling would probably be my pick as well, bro. And you know, Kutzalaba has a punch's chance in the first round, but I think you know, you could say that about most fights.
SPEAKER_02So let's let's take Sterling for two units for the lock of the night. I'll do that, dude. Done.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, well let's just do that for fun. That I mean, if it loses oh well. But that way we could build a little banker on whoever we think's gonna win, even if it's not like the prettiest, because you know, a lot of people just don't want to see that return on their money.
SPEAKER_02But it yeah, it's crazy, like because like you said, the better is they want some juicy ass bets, and I think that's what gets people mostly in trouble. But like if you were doing the stock market and you got a 30% return, you'd be excited, you'd be happy about that, you know.
SPEAKER_00Right, 100%. Or like if people are selling their house or car or whatever, I mean it you know, they would be happy on on any retail, you know, anything over like 23% be sweet. So yeah, exactly. And any other and when it comes to putting in parlays, people become the greediest people in the world. Like one of the first thoughts in my head is I think of you know, I I see on Instagram a lot of people, um, Taylor get hyped up and do parlays like the Maddie Betts uh yeah, what's that?
SPEAKER_02The a thousand to a hundred thousand or ten thousand to a hundred thousand.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I'm trying to think of what he calls it, the something parlay where he tries to hit the um where he's yeah, he's like does a submission, uh decision.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, you know. Uh they do it for baseball too, God. I can't think of what he says it is, but yeah, I mean it which is good if he hits often, but it's like even you see him, I mean he's pretty honest and open about it. He might hit like two or three of those a year. But if he's betting 10 grand, you know, three or four times a month, he he's losing money long term, even though it looks juicy as shit.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, but just to make the point of like, um, you know, that's how a lot of people want to bet, and that's why the majority of us lose most of the time. But you know, that's what you get when you're taking high risk, high reward plays. You know, you're not always that's why the five for $100 bets or whatever are so juicy because they're not supposed to hit.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, exactly. So again, bankroll management, focus on one or two main picks, use that for your your main budget, and then just sprinkle on your bigger, larger parlays, you know.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, oh, it's called the cycle parlays. That's what parlay. Sorry, I was so stuck on that word cycle. I was like, oh my god, it's having a brain freeze.
SPEAKER_02That's what it is, though, cycle parlay, he pop.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, but I mean, just any parlay where you're betting, you know, like that too many things to happen or too many specific things to happen. Yeah. So sometimes it's better to just be safe and say, hey, I think this guy's gonna win tonight. It's only gonna win me a couple bucks, but you know, I feel like this guy, there's no way this guy loses. And if you can go to sleep at night and not worried about losing that money, then take that risk.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, exactly. But so it's saying, like with the Martingale, it's not I'm not necessarily winning a lot every single fight, but overall, I'm over 3x the starting. I think we started with 100 and it's at like 315 now. So again, in six months, the I mean it's not juicy, it's crazy, but again, if you're a larger better and started with a thousand, you'd be over three thousand or started with ten thousand, you'd be over thirty thousand, doing the exact same picks and bets. So again, sometimes just bedding safe is better.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, maybe, maybe as the year goes on, you know, I'm I'm so happy that you're tracking our bets because that will give us an honest like results. But yeah, it would be it'd be kind of fun to see like if we could really run it up and be like real serious for a couple months where we're taking like straight bets and we're taking you know guys that were like, hey, there this guy's not losing, you know, and betting less pretty and just really trying to run it up.
SPEAKER_02Because again, we like when we were doing your locks originally, I was just doing it for one unit, but now I'm gonna start pressing it because we're uh we're up four units. So even after we bet right now, we're we're down a quarter unit, even if everything lost after Saturday. So we're basically even, even if everything got bust. But again, I we think, like you said, we just start slowly trying to press the winnings to get better bets. I think you know nobody has a perfect winning streak forever, you know.
SPEAKER_00No, and at the end of the day, the guy that's supposed to win nine out of ten times might lose. So, you know, that's just how it goes. But um, I do I do think that it it there is an advantage to having to watching these fights, you know, and being a uh serious fan because you know the personality of these fighters, you know like how the stylistic matchups are gonna look like, and not everything goes as predicted, but I definitely think being like a real fan does give you an edge when it does come to the betting.
SPEAKER_02Oh, yeah, for sure. Well, and you you you pulled out well with your NBA picks, right?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I called the NBA Finals, man. Spurs versus Knicks, and I just cashed out pretty big on the Knicks. So that's perfect, dude.
SPEAKER_02So again, like you said, I think when you're a fan and you really watch and pay attention, it makes such a difference versus just the casual better, you know, looking for just parlays, you know, huge favorites, because favorites always get beat up, you know. Unfortunately, it's it'd be easy if favorites won all the time.
SPEAKER_00Right. I think I think though, like uh with betting on multiple sports, uh I would say though that uh fighting uh especially championship fights, underdogs in championship fights are probably the livest underdogs you can bet.
SPEAKER_02Agreed, 100%.
SPEAKER_00I mean, you can maybe say that in all sports, you know, because at that point that's the best of the best. Even if the other opponent has a advantage, you know, anytime it's a championship fight, these are the best two teams in the league or division or weight class, whatever sport it is. So um I think that's in my opinion, the best time to bet underdogs that are really could win for your money is if it's a some sort of title fight.
SPEAKER_02Well, like you said, that's what we've really seen this year. The underdogs have been, you know, super profitable for the main or co-main event. Almost every fight card, it seems like.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, it's nuts. Like the um Strickland winning, and then now um Gagey winning. J Gagey winning, and then even Gone, in my opinion, winning versus Prayer. That's was pretty surprising to me as well. Like that really humbled me.
SPEAKER_02So you said I think Peore on paper looks better, but I just don't think he could handle the power of Gone moving up the weight class. He's just not used to those heavier, you know, fists, basically, those heavier guys.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, and people kept saying, Oh, prayer is bigger. Look, Prayer's bigger. And I'm just thinking, he might be a little bit taller, like weigh the same, but I mean, you can just tell looking at the two guys, one guy's absolutely jacked to the gills. Yeah, and Prayer just looks like, you know, a big guy.
SPEAKER_02And even just having all that extra muscle probably slowed him down more than when he was a little leaner and thinner, you know, and again, just he probably didn't adjust or make his game plan different. He still was fighting like he was a hundred and eighty-five pounder.
SPEAKER_00He honestly, though, he probably will still be successful fighting in the heavyweight division because of how weak it is overall. Yeah, you know, if it was a stronger division, then maybe he would have to go back. But with that being so weak, I think he'll be able to stay there if that's what he chooses to do.
SPEAKER_02I can see those guys running it back next year sometime.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, so and you don't know what Aspinall's gonna do at this point. Yeah, exactly. He's gonna be starting in the next Pirates of the Caribbean movie.
SPEAKER_02He's gotta get some more eye surgeries. Who knows, dude?
SPEAKER_00But alright, guys, those are our picks for UFC Fight Night Cobb versus um Horgucci. Ride our picks and follow us on uh YouTube and Instagram. Yep, you guys got it. Be safe, bed smart, enjoy the picks.