UFC DDP vs Usman Fight Night 281

The conversation revolves around UFC fight predictions and analysis, discussing factors that influence fight outcomes and the hosts' predictions for upcoming fights. The conversation covers in-depth fighter analysis and betting picks, including the Martingale method and parlay strategies. It also delves into underdog parlays and betting insights, followed by a detailed analysis of the fight card and betting strategies. The discussion concludes with a review of yearly performance and content creation plans.

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:01

Welcome back to Mike to Miked Up and Misinformed with your hosts Lunch Money and Mad Dog. Today we're gonna give out our predictions and picks for UFC Fight Night Duple C versus Oostman. Mad Dog, you saved us last week on the McGregor card, man. Thank you.

SPEAKER_02 0:17

Yeah, at least we did. Honestly, overall our picks were really spot on. We had a good like even like we had an eight layer that missed by one and a nine-layer that missed by one.

SPEAKER_01 0:28

So even if you piece those together in your own format, you still would have made some money seriously.

SPEAKER_00 0:35

Yeah, I feel like you know, we're gonna get our bets wrong, you know, oftentimes, but I feel like our our general picks, if you take like three of your favorite picks, we usually get the majority of our picks right, whether we put put the right ones in the parlays or not. Exactly. And for a nine player to hit by one, that's still pretty outstanding. Yeah, that's frustrating, though. It is frustrating. My main parlay cooked me, man. I know I had like Luke Riley, um Corey Sandhagen, Patty, and then Max. And then Corey had burned me. And man, I'm gonna just say right now, Mario Bautista, I'm so sorry. I'm never fading you again. I faded Mario when he fought Patchy Mix, bro. And I just that was my first time I got burned, and now I've never faded Mario again, bro.

SPEAKER_01 1:27

I don't care what he fights said.

SPEAKER_00 1:28

I'm either staying away or just not betting his fights, because I always get them wrong. That's how it is. There's a couple people that it's like no matter which side I'm on, I always seem to get it wrong. So now it's like I just stay away. I gotta stop disrespecting Mario.

SPEAKER_02 1:44

But you killed it with your paddy big dude.

SPEAKER_00 1:46

You literally called it like 100% exactly what was gonna happen. Yeah, that was awesome. I I should have just straight bet him, but shoulda, woulda, coulda, man. This week I'm gonna make some bread back. Alright, so first fight of the card, we have a uh we have a women's flyway bout. We have Anna uh Mulissano versus Dione Barbo Dione Barbosa. Who do you got in this one?

SPEAKER_02 2:13

So I'm taking Anna, dude. She's finished her last three fights. So especially for a girl with that weight class, that's pretty impressive. Now Barbosa is a she is a good fighter overall, but I'm taking the underdog again.

SPEAKER_00 2:27

I think she has a real chance, dude, to get the job done again. Plus 425? Plus 425. So I'm loving the pot. Like I can I can't bet Barbosa minus 575. So for me, this is like a dog or pass.

SPEAKER_03 2:40

And I actually like dog here.

SPEAKER_00 2:42

Alright, dog or pass for me too on this one. I don't feel strong either side, but if you're giving me for the opening fight of the night a plus four twenty five, I'll take it. I'm taking it, dude.

SPEAKER_03 2:52

Yeah, that's a great win to start off of the night.

SPEAKER_00 2:55

Next up, we have a heavyweight bout. We have Alvin Hines versus RJ Harris. Um, I know RJ's a little bit newer into the UFC. Um, Alvin has been in the UFC for some time now. He's Alvin's 7-1, RJ's 5-0. Who do you got?

SPEAKER_02 3:10

I like RJ's a little bit younger. I think he's got a little bit more ability and skill. Um I don't know. We don't want to show you heavyweights. I just don't love Alvin. I feel like they kind of got to gas out quick. He he's a big guy. Like he comes in at 260. So I mean he's he's maxing out the uh the weight class itself, right? Right? So I just feel like he's got that knockout power in the first round. After that, he kind of just slowly starts the uh just take it on himself. So I'm taking the young guy. And it's almost a good thing. So I'm taking the dog again.

SPEAKER_00 3:50

Alright, man. Uh I feel like it's the fight's not gonna go the distance, but um I'll I'll side with you. I'm not confident enough to lean to take Alvin here. I do like that Heinz has more experience, but um, I I'll go with the younger guy being the underdog and RJ Harris as well with you. And I agree, I don't think the distance I think the under two and a half and minus one.

SPEAKER_02 4:17

And both of these guys knocking everybody out, obviously.

SPEAKER_00 4:20

Yeah, yeah, that's an attractive play to just take it, not go in the distance. I like that. Next up we have Stuart Nickel versus Alden Koria. Who do you uh Nickel is eight and three, and Koria is 12-3. Both of these guys are newer fighters.

SPEAKER_02 4:37

They are newer, but I don't know why Nickel's been on a three-box win streak. So I don't know if it was like something happened in his personal life or he's he's coming back after two injuries. And then Alvin's at minus eleven hundred. So I'm gonna I was leaning to Alvin already with those odds.

SPEAKER_00 4:55

I'm just gonna stay away from this. Yeah, Corey's minus 1100. Nicol is at plus 700. Wow. Yeah, I'm staying away from that one. I would have had Coreia maybe like minus 300. That's pretty huge, man. I would it's dogger pass for me.

SPEAKER_02 5:13

Yeah, I thought I was gonna be closer, but I know Nicole lost his last three fights, and he has been having a hard time getting like off the UC.

SPEAKER_00 5:22

But those are no value for me either. Yeah, I'm gonna just pass on that one. I'm not being I'm not even gonna entertain the underdog. Yeah. Next up, we got Felipe Franco versus Levi Rodriguez. Uh Rodriguez is 5-0. Uh Franco is 10-2. This is a light heavyweight matchup. I'm gonna tell you right now, I got Rodriguez. I'm going with Levi Rodriguez. I got Rodriguez too.

SPEAKER_02 5:48

This is gonna be a banger of a match, too, man. These two guys are going after each other. But Rodriguez is a little more well-rounded.

SPEAKER_00 5:57

Yeah, I feel I feel like he definitely has more pass to victory here by taking it to the ground, or I think he could get a knockout standing up. Um yeah, Frank Franco is four years younger, but um, I don't know. I like Rodriguez in this one. I think he's gonna I think he's gonna get a knockout. Yeah, I think this is a good match for him. I think this will let him show off some of his ability.

SPEAKER_02 6:22

Like you said, he can go different paths of victory. He can win either side, standing or on the ground.

SPEAKER_00 6:28

So and a minus one sixty of those are some great odds. Yeah, let's take that all day on a parlay piece. Next up, I I like this underdog a lot in this matchup. Um, I have a hard time saying his last name, but I'm taking John Paul Lebosanyi, Lebosanoyani versus Siokionko. But I'm taking JP in this one as the underdog. I think he's like a plus 160, maybe. Yeah, plus 173.

SPEAKER_02 6:57

And Sakionko is at minus 25. I I I honestly couldn't really decide either way, so I I this is kind of a point for me. So I'm not gonna make a personal pick, but I feel like I'm gonna do that.

SPEAKER_00 7:12

Yeah, I feel like it JP should be maybe like a minus 120, so the fact that he's an underdog, I'm gonna take that on a play. So all right, man. There's nothing I feel like crazy about. There are a couple plays on this card I like, but there's nothing that I'm like throw would throw out a lot lock by any means. It's a tricky card. Next up we have a yeah, we have a featherweight bout Jose Mel get Jose Miguel Delgado versus Austin Bashi. Um, this is pick a mods last time I checked. It's still a little pick a modern minus 183, minus 117.

SPEAKER_02 7:50

I'm leaning towards Delgado.

SPEAKER_00 7:52

I'm taking Bashi in this one. I'm not confident about it, but I think it's gonna go to a decision, could be a split decision, but I think Bashi is a little bit more well-rounded and is gonna um edge out a decision against Delgado.

SPEAKER_02 8:07

Alright, I like it. I'm not upset.

SPEAKER_00 8:10

You're taking Delgado? I like Delgado. I'm curious on this next one because I feel pretty confident in this one. Um, we have Tommy McMillan versus Alberto Montez. I'm taking Montez in this one. Are you really? Yeah, I know McMillan has a lot of hype. You know, he he has some highlight reel KOs and he's dangerous on the feet, but I feel like I feel like he's just a little bit too green, and Montez is a pretty good veteran, and I think he's gonna humble McMillan here and expose him. I think McMillan doesn't really have much of a ground game, and he might get a little bit exposed in this matchup.

SPEAKER_02 8:52

Uh I slightly agree with you, but I still think McMillan has a slight advantage on the feet. And I don't think he's that bad on the ground. So I think I'm gonna take McMillan at minus 145. You like Montez at plus 125.

SPEAKER_00 9:07

Yeah, I like Montez for sure. I think that's a good trade play. I think McMillan's one of those guys that again, he has he does some things that are highlight real and um you know uh make make you a fan favorite or make that make him a fan favorite. He puts on really entertaining fights, but I think he's just a little bit too raw. He's still super young and he has a lot of room to grow, but I feel like this is just a bad matchup for him. But I'm taking Montez, bro. And I feel like a lot of public money will be on McMillan too.

SPEAKER_02 9:39

And Montez does look like he's a bigger guy, but we'll have to see the wave coming in.

SPEAKER_00 9:44

Yeah, we'll see what happens, bro. Next up we have Tabitha Richie versus Fatima Klein. I think we're gonna fade each other on this one, too. Dude, I don't know, man. Normally I ride Ricci, but I'm going with Klein this one.

SPEAKER_02 10:00

I'm going with Klein too.

SPEAKER_00 10:01

I think Klein's gonna win a decision. Sometimes she fights with the best of the best, toe-to-toe, and then sometimes she just checks out of fights, but she's just one of those like girls that won't ever be a contender, but yeah, like she kind of floats around contention. But I think Fatima's just a little bit better here, and Ricci's already hit her peak in the UFC. You literally just think she's kind of already capped out.

SPEAKER_02 10:32

It's like I just don't see her growing anymore as a fighter. She kind of knows what goes in, you know, she can score the win with and she kind of keeps that and it doesn't work. She's not that upset that it does work, she's good a little bit. But I feel like she's not growing anymore as a fighter. That kind of disappoints me because I think she's just a great person on the mic.

SPEAKER_00 10:51

She has a lot of talent, bro. She's an attractive woman, but yeah, again, I I just think she doesn't have that like mentality. Should like doesn't have that dog in her. Yeah. But yeah, I'm taking Klein as well. I'm not confident it should be a good fight, but I think Klein is a little bit more on the up and coming, opposed to Richie being more so on the decline. Next up we have Mitch Ramirez versus Chase Hooper. Um, what's the odds on this one, may I ask?

SPEAKER_02 11:20

So Hoover's at minus 350, and plus 280.

SPEAKER_00 11:24

Bro, I love Mitch Ramirez in this spot. Do you really want to run on the flip side of a call? This is crazy. Yeah, for this one, I I really like Chase Hooper, bro, but he's has shown time and time again that he's just a jujitsu threat. You know, when he's standing on the feet, he's terrible, bro. He gets picked apart. And if if he fights a wrestler, you know, the you know, a wrestler can win on control time, and if they just avoid his submissions, they're just gonna use that as takedown defense. But and Chase Hooper has been knocked out nasty, you know, a couple, you know, I would say of his last like I'm gonna actually look to be I I don't like to be wrong, but um, I want to say Hooper's been knocked out cold, like two of his last four fights at least. Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 12:15

I'm hoping he can come back because I like Hooper. I think he's got a good one.

SPEAKER_00 12:18

Yeah, his last two fights, he's lost in the first round by knockout, and it's the last two fights. So in my opinion, I just think you know, he he he's probab I think Hooper's the better fighter than Ramirez, but with when you get knocked out twice, I feel like that's such a hard thing to mentally overcome. And he's still young, and I don't know, bro. I just feel like the odds I think Ramirez is a great underdog dog for those odds. Alright, I'm not upset. I'm not upset. So it happens, bro. Hopefully Hooper does bounce back, but he's gotta protect himself better because he's not gonna have longevity if he keeps getting knocked out the way he has. Well, one of the problem is he thinks he can stand in and you know these guys. He really can't.

SPEAKER_02 13:05

He's gotta force the grappling and force grappling and winning his game in the jujitsu. Not be trying to stand in and make you know throw both of these guys and wait to see what happens and get caught and then it's over.

SPEAKER_00 13:18

He's got such a awkward body type, too, because he's so tall and long, but he's just not very strong either. So even when he is, you know, able to pull off his jujitsu, he's still working off of his back. So if he's not getting a submission, he's losing on control time because he's still ending up on his back a lot. Yeah, that's true.

SPEAKER_02 13:36

That's true. And he came in with so much hope, right?

SPEAKER_00 13:39

He came in like the new next thing, and he really hasn't all uh pull together. Yeah. So I hope he wins, but I'm not picking him. Next up for the co-main event, we have uh Jared Cannoneer versus uh CLD, Christian Leroy Duncan. CLD is on the up and coming. You know, he's he's thirsty and edging for a title shot. Um, he's probably I would say two fights away from a title shot. And Cannoneer has been at the top for a long time. You know, he's already had multiple title shots, and he's proven that um he fights with the best of the best. His only thing that has caught up to him is father time. You know, I think he's 42 or 43 right now. So that's the only thing that Canoneer really has against him that he really can't control. Yeah, he's 42. So Duncan's what, like mid-30s with a lot less miles on the on the tank. So 12 year difference. Wow, yeah. So he's Duncan's just entering his prime. I'll tell you right now, bro, I feel super confident that CLD's gonna win this fight, bro. I just feel like Father Time catches up to everybody. Kinnaneer hasn't been as active as he used to be in recent years, and uh Duncan is just too nasty, too aggressive. Um, I won't be surprised if he finds a knockout in this fight late in the second or third round. But I like Duncan to win by knockout or a decision.

SPEAKER_02 15:10

Yeah, I like Duncan for the knockout. And I also like like the under two and a half at plus 120, or saying by not to go to the first picking mods. I mean, at least I don't know. I don't think this is a decision.

SPEAKER_00 15:25

Though it's tough because Cannoneer is he's got a good chin, bro, and Cannoneer is used to fighting five-round wars, so it's scary. It's scary taking a finish, but the odds are not bad at all for under two and a half being a quin flip. So if you take that, I wouldn't be mad about it. Yeah, I like Thunder. Or you're just saying it's not Google. Alright, man, and then takes us to the main event. I wish that Usman was in his prime for this fight, because I feel like it won't do the fight justice, even if Kamaru does win, which would be spectacular. But um, I just feel like Kumaro's a little bit too old, bro, and dupless C is still right in the middle of his prime. I like Dupless C a lot in this matchup. I love him. I don't know how he doesn't win practically.

SPEAKER_02 16:16

Unless Uman literally just wrestles him and just wins on control time, and it's a boring fight.

SPEAKER_03 16:22

There's just no way.

SPEAKER_00 16:24

I think that's his only path to victory. Man, this is a tough one, bro. And then also, Usman won his titles at um welterweight. So Dupless C is gonna be way bigger in the cage than Usman is, man. Like Usman's not really big for a middleweight in the first place, and dupless C could arguably be a light heavyweight. So we're over 200 pounds. So yeah, and when Dupless C got ragdolled by Homzat, Homzat's wrestling is different, and he's you know, it's right in the middle of his prime right now. Usman's wrestling is effective, but being at his age, I just I know Usman controlled and beat Buckley up, but Dupless C is just a couple levels above Buckley, and I don't think Oostman's wrestling is gonna work here. I like Dupless C. He could really win any three ways. He could win by knockout submission or by decision here. So I'm just gonna take D plus C on the tail end of all my parlays and hedge if it if I get to the last fight. Plus plus he's just got like that tall stature, he's got those long arms, long legs.

SPEAKER_02 17:39

I mean, this is gonna be easy for him to sprawl, keep it the distance from I mean I this is like uh to me, this is like a perfect matchup for Drew Plus C here coming in and just just small.

SPEAKER_00 17:50

Get back in contention, man. Get back in the mix.

SPEAKER_02 17:53

So get you know just grappled and pulled down and laid on top of for three rounds. He's just gonna get great.

SPEAKER_00 18:01

Yeah, and it's unfortunate, again, because one Usman, you know, is fighting up a weight class in recent years, and he's also, you know, again, he's pushing 40 years old if he isn't already. So, um, and he's still a great fighter. He's very competitive with everybody he fights, win or lose. But again, duplicate is just a bad matchup for him here. Alright, so this leads us to giving out our um picks and what we're gonna be playing in terms of betting-wise. Do you want to give out the Martingale method play first, or do you want to give out your parlays? I'll go to Martingale first.

SPEAKER_02 18:39

So I'm gonna take uh Leber Riaz, Drew, uh Tommy McMillan, and uh please for my three Martingales.

SPEAKER_03 18:49

So they'll give you the best, but Okay, so who do you got?

SPEAKER_00 18:55

McMillan, do plus C, and who else? Leber Ria. Okay. And what's that what's thoughts on that?

SPEAKER_02 19:03

Um well because the Martigales are all individual. Lemon's at 160, Tommy McMillan's at 145, and 245 for Drewers of the Police.

SPEAKER_00 19:16

Gotcha. Okay. I was just curious in if you parlayed that. The other thing is I don't like the McMillan play on that one, but I would say parlay that one too.

SPEAKER_02 19:24

But yeah, so my parlay is gonna be CLD and DDB. I'm gonna play those two together.

SPEAKER_00 19:32

And that's we should do we should do a higher uh we should do a higher unit on that, because I like that part parlay a lot too. Alright, let's put it there. Yeah, let's do that. That sounds good, bro. That's a minus 125. I think both of you guys get the job done. Yeah, uh that that's the parlay that I would I would give out, bro, for sure.

SPEAKER_03 19:53

Yeah, I think that's a solid parlay to win.

SPEAKER_00 19:57

Alright, man. So this is called this is called the underdog parlay, man. This is called the dogs are barking. I'm taking leg one. This is just for half a unit.

SPEAKER_01 20:10

Leg one, JP. He's an underdog.

SPEAKER_00 20:16

Leg two, leg two, um Mitch Ramirez to beat Chase Hooper. That's another dog. And then I'm gonna take uh Alberto Montez. All three of them are underdogs, that's probably gonna pay out plus uh 600 maybe.

SPEAKER_02 20:40

Plus 2234.

SPEAKER_00 20:43

And let's go. Let's call the d every one of those guys are underdogs in their matchup. So if that hit, that'd be freaking sweet. It'd be a fun Mario method play to do too. Because if just one of them hit, you know, you'd be in profit.

SPEAKER_02 20:56

Yeah, I mean you could honestly for sure. And then the underdogs do hit. I mean, it's not like they go 60, 70 favorites in a row.

SPEAKER_01 21:05

There's almost always one or two underdogs that nobody's expecting that pulls it off, you know? 100%. As long as it's not Conor Gregor.

SPEAKER_00 21:16

Alright, let's let's do let's do a fun one of the ones that let's do a big parlay of the ones that we agree on. So well let's take uh let's take Levi Rodriguez as leg one, let's take um Fatina Klein as Leg two, we both liked her.

SPEAKER_01 21:38

Yeah. Duncan, and then uh Duplessy. Okay, that's not bad anyway.

SPEAKER_00 21:53

Those were all pretty good favorites too, so Okay. Sweet. Yeah, this isn't the prettiest card, man, but there are exciting matchups. I would say ones that could be fight of the night. Potential fight of the night would be the Cannoneer fight, because Duncan's so aggressive. He's fireworks. Um that Tommy McMillan fights crazy. His fight will be super entertaining. Yeah, Harrison Ice, that heavyweight fight. I think it could be like a knockout of the night there. Yeah, that and that's the second fight of the card. That's gonna be a banger, man. Anytime you get two heavyweights with power in their hands, it's gonna be entertaining.

SPEAKER_02 22:41

So someone can be lit up for sure. I think that's gonna be a great fight. Like you said, there's just not a lot of huge names on here. But it's still a pretty good card. I'm gonna be disappointed, especially coming after the last couple cards we had. This is still pretty decent.

SPEAKER_00 22:56

Yeah, hopefully we can make some money on this card. Um, what are we up? What are we up or down for the year? Because I know my plays didn't hit last week, but yours did. So I would imagine we're probably a little bit in the profit range still. So we were still up two and a half units.

SPEAKER_02 23:12

And then even with the bets we just made, we're only down one unit. So we're still doing good, man. And then they give the Margale. I think I started at $100 again, it gets at 340. Hey. Yeah, and I just I just kind of split it up to wherever so it's like I might make 10 or 15 bucks per fight, you know, depending on how it goes with all my money back. So every time I win, I make a leg just a little bit more, a little bit more.

SPEAKER_00 23:41

Let's go, man. That's pretty awesome. Honestly, I think we've been doing pretty good.

SPEAKER_02 23:46

And a couple of those parts at the beginning of the year were kind of rough, you know, honestly. Like there was a lot of new people, a lot of fighters out there coming from different parts.

SPEAKER_00 23:55

The Strickland beating Comzat was crazy, and then the Justin beating Ilya was crazy. Yeah, just off the top. That hurts too. But yeah, that's what makes the fight so fun to watch, though, because you really never know what's gonna happen.

SPEAKER_02 24:11

You just never know exactly. And then again, the dude can injured literally the first kick. You just never know what's exactly. So that's why it's fun to watch, and you know, don't be betting the house on some of these plays. But I think again, normally we have like one or two kicks that we really like this kind of a weird card. Don't go crazy.

SPEAKER_00 24:31

Yeah, if you want to. I wouldn't even say this is the smartest bet, but I would say one of the safest plays you could do is our main parlay if you just wanted to try to win safe money, take DDP and take um Christian Leroy Duncan. But again, that's the safest parlay. But could um Jerry Cannonier win? Absolutely. Could uh Kamaro Usman win? Absolutely, it's a former champion. So that's in promise. Yeah, we're just really trying to push the odds and whether the waves are gonna be after we win and try to try to take all of them into consideration to make the best pick. Yeah. So and then when Mad Dog comes to town in the next week and a half, maybe we can get sit down and try to record being at the bubble craps or something. So that'd be fun to do it. Yeah, if not, it's we can do the first the weekend of the first. Alright, that sounds good, bro. So we'll get some lights up, we'll do some more content. And then again, fall following on a personal page. What is this? Mr. WebLV? Yeah, Mr. Webb's LV. Yeah. And I'll I'll I'll start sharing. And then what's your um is it locally global? It's local, I think it's local2.global. Local2.global, yeah. Follow that page. Hey, you your videos are good, bro. Keep pumping those out. What are we trying to do?

SPEAKER_02 25:54

We're kind of following your lead, bro. If we're already traveling off, it's a good way for us to just get more content. And I get the basic team is just like have our memories up, you know, for ourselves and nothing else, you know.

SPEAKER_00 26:05

Yeah, I for sure, man. And if you need any advice on editing stuff, let me know because it's taken me so long to learn the stuff I know, and I'm still a newbie. So Mr.

SPEAKER_02 26:16

Webb lives in the literally every day has like a new video of a new hotspot or new things going on. I know we'll make some content on there. We'll go over to the ice cream place. We'll have some vibes.

SPEAKER_00 26:27

But yeah, we're gonna go to that museum of ice cream 100%. I'm gonna get that for sure, bros. Alright, guys, that's our picks for this week's UFC. Uh follow us on um Instagram, especially follow us on YouTube. That's where we're gonna be posting everything if you don't have a podcast platform.

SPEAKER_02 26:46

Yep. Yeah, for sure.

SPEAKER_00 26:49

Alright, guys.