Mic'd Up and Misinformed
The hosts discuss the upcoming UFC Fights and NFL predictions. They analyze the fight cards, focusing on new fighters and their potential struggles in the UFC. The conversation shifts to NFL predictions, evaluating team performances and playoff implications as the season progresses. The hosts share insights on betting strategies for both UFC and NFL, emphasizing the unpredictability of sports and the importance of experience and injuries in making predictions. In this episode, the hosts dive deep into the current NFL season, analyzing various matchups and betting strategies. They discuss teams in tank mode, high-stakes games, and potential upsets, providing insights into player performances and coaching dynamics. The conversation covers a range of games, highlighting key factors that could influence outcomes. The hosts also share their betting strategies and predictions, making it a must-listen for sports betting enthusiasts.
Mic'd Up and Misinformed
UFC 330
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The conversation covers the UFC 330 card, featuring meaningful fights and two title fights. Each fight is analyzed, with insights into the fighters' strengths, weaknesses, and potential outcomes. The discussion also delves into the mental aspect of the fighters and their career trajectories. The conversation covers a detailed analysis of upcoming UFC fights and provides betting advice for preseason NFL games. The UFC fight analysis includes a breakdown of specific matchups and predictions for the outcomes. The preseason NFL betting advice emphasizes the importance of making future bets rather than betting on preseason games, and provides insights into various betting options for the NFL season.
Yeah.
SPEAKER_01Welcome to Miked Up and Misinformed. This is Lunch Money, and here's Mad Dog. Today we're gonna give out some absolute banger plays for UFC 330, Makachev versus Gary. This is kind of like the closest they don't have that rivalry, but this is like Habib's protege versus McGregor. I wouldn't say Connor's protege, but it's the next biggest star since Connor from Ireland.
SPEAKER_00It is and it isn't. But I don't want to get too deep into it, but unfortunately I feel like it might be similar outcomes.
SPEAKER_01Hey, we I'm really in I feel super confident on this card. I have not felt crazy uh over the last two cards, but this one I got a really strong feeling about. So hopefully our picks align because I might become insecure if we're differentiating on every pick.
SPEAKER_00So no, mostly most of these guys can get around for a while and have some credibility. There's not a bunch of you know new guys. I think there's only one fight maybe that had like one guy that had one fight or no fights in the UFC, but most of these guys have been around. This is a solid card.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, facts, bro. These are these these are all for the most part pretty meaningful fights. So very meaningful. So we have to do title fights. So you can't complain whenever you get any UFC card with two title fights. So you ready to get into it?
SPEAKER_00Let's go.
SPEAKER_01Alright. Um, the first fight of the night we have Jeremiah Wells, a UFC veteran, versus um Metepek. We're all alibi. We're all by We're Olibi is Rollaby? Yeah, Rollaby is sitting around a minus 900 to a minus eleven hundred for the first fight of the nights. Absolutely diabolical odds. But I will say I appreciate that Wells is a UFC vet, but this is one of those layup layup fights for Olaby. Um unfortunately, this is just not playable. Even if you took Orlabi on a met on a specific method of victory, that would be too risky for me. I would just pass on this fight, but Orlaby should have no issues whatsoever. He should walk right through Wells.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, he should exactly. This should be no problem at all. I think the best thing you could do is take this fight. Like if you really were to generate, take it under two or under two and a half rounds. Because even in take it not to finish, the odds aren't that great. I mean, they they're expecting this to end in the first round, let's be honest.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, yeah, the the the uh I I I it's a hard name to pronounce, but Orlaby is you know, he he's arguably a contender for sure, man. He definitely um is is a lot higher quality fighter than Wills, and we'll see that on Saturday night.
SPEAKER_00Yep, yeah, he's got you know multiple pass the victory. He can grapple, he can wrestle, he's got the submission ability, and he has that KO power. So I mean this could end in multiple ways.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Alright, bro. Next fight, we have uh man, and even even more of a UFC veteran. We got Neil Magney. Feels like he's been fighting forever, bro. Versus Ramiz Brahamaj. Brahamaj is a minus 141. I think this fight's really interesting because Brahamaj, he specializes in his ground game. Yeah, and Magney's pretty freaking good on the ground. Um, this is a really tricky, I feel like this is kind of a trap play because Magni is never supposed to win these fights, but these are the kind of fights that he comes out and wins as the underdog.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, you never know. Magney's always live, dude, honestly. Even at his older age, and you know, he's been around forever, like you said. But I how can you argue, dude, when the guy's got 13 wins and 12 submission wins? I mean, if he's got 12 of those 13 wins or by submission, this guy is class A, freaking S tier submission artist. I can't pass it up, dude. I'm gonna take him by sub.
SPEAKER_01You're taking Brahmash by sub?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, for sure.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I like Brahamash here. I just it it's scary fading Neil Magney because um these are definitely the type of fights he wins. But um, you know, with Brahamash being as supreme as he is on the mat, I do see a submission or decision here. I I personally would probably just take him on the money line because that minus 41 is is yeah, the odds are legit.
SPEAKER_00The odds are good.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I I I think the odds are in his favor too. Brahamash should be a minus 180 in my opinion.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. Or or even more, honestly. But again, this could be a little bit of a trap play.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I I'm gonna be careful with that one. It's not one I'm gonna slam, but I like it. Alright, guys, and at the beginning of this podcast, I'm gonna be passing a little bit, not real confident, but the deeper we get in this car, the juicier and crazier we're gonna get. Next up, we got Lucas Fernando versus Raphael Tobias. Tobias is sitting at a plus 230, plus 240. Fernando's at around a minus 280 to minus 300. What do you got?
SPEAKER_00I like Tobias here, dude. He's already got two UFC fights. He's a little bit more well-rounded, in my opinion. For Fernando, this is his first fight in the UFC. And um, if you go look at his record, he wins four fights and then loses, and then wins four fights and then loses. And he just had a four-fight win streak, so I'm expecting that kind of that same combo to come. So I'm taking the dog here, dude. I'm gonna I'm playing the odds overall like crazy.
SPEAKER_01Hey, that's mad interesting, bro. Like, I don't think I don't think anybody's gonna give that take. That's a super unique take. It's so weird. That's super interesting. I I was just gonna pass on it. I I thought I like my best play here is Fernando by decision, but with him being a minus 300, I just think that's a little bit too high. I'd probably have him minus 190 to minus one to minus 210. But yeah, that's way too high. So I'm gonna pass here, but I like what you said, bro. It makes me want to throw nickel, throw a nickel on Tobias.
SPEAKER_00I mean, you never know, but again, this guy is his first fight in the UFC. Sometimes these guys get, you know, light shock and don't perform up to their standard. And knowing that he, I don't know if maybe he just like trains really hard and then he wins, and then he kind of cuts back, he wins, he cuts back, and then he's like, Yeah, this isn't that bad, and then he loses, then he comes back aggressive and training. So I mean, there's something maybe mentally there after winning four or five fights and then losing again. So I'm just playing the streak there basically, and I'm gonna take either dog or pass. That's my my suggestion.
SPEAKER_01Hey, you can never feel bad taking a stab on an underdog, man. It feels a lot lighter on my mental and spirit um riding out a dog who loses than taking a heavy favorite who loses.
SPEAKER_00And if if it goes to split decision, even if I lose, I still feel good because I know I was that freaking close. And for the odds, that's you know, that's juicy still.
SPEAKER_01Alright, so Mad Dog's rocking with a minus. Or a plus sorry, a plus plus two thirty right there. That'd be sweet.
SPEAKER_00I was shocked when I saw the odds.
SPEAKER_01Heck yeah. Alright, bro. Here's one of my most confident plays of the night. Um, next up we have Vicente Luque versus Traceyon Gore. Trayson Gore is a minor minus 120. It's darn near pick'em. I will say before I make this prediction, Trayshon Gore, of all the OC fighters, he has lost me the most money on a single night, single bet that I've ever lost in my entire life than any sport. When he came off the contender series, he fought Cody Brundage. And when he came out when Gore came out of the contender series, I thought he was gonna be like the next contender in the division. And then and he fights Cody Brundage, who you know is barely been hanging on to the USC since he's been in. And um Brundage finishes him in the first round, and I've I've been sick to this day, and that was probably like four years ago or something. But um, in this in this pick right here, I gotta take Gore, bro. I think it's a lock.
SPEAKER_00It's like a pick'em, too, right? It's like a pick'em.
SPEAKER_01It's a pick'em, bro. You gotta I Gore is an absolute, he's he's younger, he's a lot more aggressive, he's got a lot more power. I feel like uh Vicente Luque possibly might be a little bit more well-rounded, but his chin is gone, bro. Luke, the way Luque's been getting finished in these fights where he's getting knocked out, is is you know, I just feel like that chin is just yeah, you know, it's just dissipating, bro.
SPEAKER_00That's that that's you took the words out of my mouth. I think Luke is more well-rounded, but what scares me is kind of the glass jaw right now. My best bet is this fight not to go the finish. That that I think that's the best thing. Because it's either gonna end in submission or knockout.
SPEAKER_01And it's I wouldn't be surprised at all. I feel like Luke's path to victory here would be if he got a submission, he's got very good jujitsu. He might get that submission on gore. But in my opinion, Gore's wrestling will probably counter that, and then it's gonna end up being a standing war. And again, I just think the power is on gore side, the youth is on gore side, he's got he's got a lot less mileage, fight mileage and damage. You know, Luke's got more damage than you know, Luke, and I appreciate Luke so much. Over, you know, he's been in the OC for a long time. Over the years, he's putting on banger fights, bro. Every time Luke's in a fight, it's never boring. But at the same time, now that he's 34 and the damage he's accumulated, it's hard to play him here, bro. It really is.
SPEAKER_00I know, I know. I still like Luke, but I think for me, the best bet is the fight not to go the finish.
SPEAKER_01Okay, so you so you do like Luke, just but you're taking and you're just gonna take the under in general, so whoever wins doesn't finish, you're winning.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, because I think I think either way, I like I said, I think Luke could get a submission, and uh Gore could definitely get a KO. So I think that I don't think this fight goes to the end no matter what. I think one of these guys is gonna get the job done, but I kind of like Luke just because I feel like he's a little more well-rounded. And like you said at the beginning, Gore is just kind of so hit or miss. You don't know which version of Gore is gonna show up that night. And again, saying that we're we're doing this before weigh-ins and stuff, so I mean there is other factors just you know to still view, but um the that you I'm glad you brought that up.
SPEAKER_01I forgot to mention that um with gore, um, the only thing that's held him back in his UFC career is right here. You know, he mentally he mentally kind of checks out sometimes, you know. It he's one of those fighters where you really gotta see where his mentals at because when it's not there, he fights a to he's a totally different fighter based off of his his mindset at that time. So that's something to note. And um, but yeah, I got I personally got gore by decision or by knockout. Those are my two two plays that I would consider taking. And you could get both of those at a pretty good plus price. So if you're on the gore side, I'd mess with that.
SPEAKER_00Love it.
SPEAKER_01All right. Next up, we got Dante Johnson, minus 245 versus Eric McCon McConeko.
SPEAKER_00McConeko, yeah.
SPEAKER_01McConeko is a plus 200. I don't know how Johnson's a minus 245, bro. I thought that's pretty crazy.
SPEAKER_00I don't love those odds, but I do I do think Johnson will get a KO here. I think he can come in and get the job done. But it's almost the same thing with Eric, dude. It's like you slightly don't know which version of him he's gonna come in. If he comes in and acts aggressive, he might be able to pull it off by decision. But if he comes in and kind of standoffish, I think Dante is just gonna control the the ring overall and eventually get a KO in.
SPEAKER_01I think the odds are crazy, bro. Dante's not be my 245. I'm taking McConicho or just passing. I think that's a total dogger pass play.
SPEAKER_00Get it. Yeah, because Dante's still kind of new, honestly. He hasn't had a lot of pro fights, so you still don't know.
SPEAKER_01I feel like he just hasn't earned that kind of favor. Alright, next up we have one of the most unpredictable UFC fighters. This guy has knocked out Lunar Kavanaugh, and he's knocked out Joshua Van and Charles Johnson. He's just but then you know, some of his losses he had, you know, are ugly. You know, he's so hard to predict. And he's fighting Eduardo Henrique da Silva. This is about a pick him. Johnson's a slight favorite here. Who do you got, bro?
SPEAKER_00Wait, which fight is this?
SPEAKER_01This is uh Charles Johnson versus Eduardo Henrique da Silva.
SPEAKER_00So did they switch? Because I have it as Jose uh Ochoa.
SPEAKER_01Oh, they did. I'm so sorry, bro. I have the old I have the older one. It did just switch. It's Jose Ochoa. My bad. My bad. So I'm sorry, I have I have the previous because the the this uh was just a replacement. Yeah, Charles Johnson versus Joshua Ochoa. Yes, sorry about that.
SPEAKER_00You're good, you're good. I'm like, wait, what is happening right now?
SPEAKER_01So I want to say the odds are probably pretty close still. I have not seen those odds though, and my apologies. You're so right.
SPEAKER_00You're good, you're good, dude. Let me see. I'll try to pull them up real quick here. Um, I like uh the only problem with Charles is this is his fourth fight this year, which is not necessarily it is kind of good, but it's kind of bad because it's like he's been in there, so it's like the the speed in the ring isn't gonna be a problem. Like there's no ring rust, but I feel like you start doing four or five fights in a year, I feel like you start getting beat up a little bit, and it's hard to maintain that.
SPEAKER_01Um let me see if I can find the hey while while you're looking that up, um going like continuing on Charles Johnson. He got started to MMA late in his career, and he's also sitting at 30, or he's in his 30s at this point, and I think that he's just trying to be as active as possible because he does not have a lot of fight mileage, because he did get in the game late, and also he's trying to take advantage of you know his quote unquote prime right now, you know, because he is he does have a lot less experience and gotten to the game later than the majority of UFC fighters.
SPEAKER_00I don't the odds aren't even up yet, because this was a late switch, a late sub.
SPEAKER_01Hey, with that five being said, bro, I'm just gonna say though, whatever the odds are, if achoa isn't more than a minus 150, I'm gonna take a choa here. Um, I feel like he could edge out a decision. I like I like him um a little bit better in the stand-up, and I don't I feel like it's not gonna go to the ground. So I I personally I think achoa is gonna edge him out, Johnson out in a decision, but I don't love it.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, it's the same. I I lean towards a choa, but I you just never know. I mean, Charles is again, he is kind of a dog. I don't I don't know how he looks so old being so young.
SPEAKER_01Who Charles Johnson?
SPEAKER_00How old is it, bro?
SPEAKER_01Isn't he like I'm guessing isn't he like 35? Is he 34?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I don't think he's that old. He's yeah, he's like mid-30s. Let me see if I can find real quick. But it's just I feel like he looks like he's a 16-year-old man with that freaking hairstyle half the time, dude.
SPEAKER_01Hey, hey, the question for the viewers and you, mad dog, if you have that hair where like you know how his hairline starts back here, just right here, and then he he does it. Would you just let it go or would you rock it like him? Because it on one end it's a really unique look, and on the other end, it you know, it's just like a patch back there. It's really unique.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I mean it is. He's 35, like you said. It is a unique look. Like everyone he's recognizable just from the hairstyle alone. But to me, I would be I would just buzz it. Like, there's no way I'd be rocking that regularly. I guess if you wore a hat, maybe it wouldn't be too bad. It wouldn't be too noticeable.
SPEAKER_01I saw he had one on today, and he had like the braids coming out of the back, and it looked like you know, he had braids all the way, but you can only see the I think if he's rocking a hat, he could get away with it.
SPEAKER_00But when he's in the ring, it just looks so freaking goofy. But and again, I don't know, it's kind of weird because the four fights in the same year, it's like again, I think it makes a difference being so active, right? It's like you're not you're not as worried or you're you're more comfortable going into the ring. Um, I feel like Kevin Holland during COVID had like four or five fights like in two years, right? He was just like banging them out because he wasn't getting injured, and he was killing everyone. So I think there is something on that, but I I still lean towards the chello overall.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I edge him too. Hey, and last thing about Charles Johnson, hey, I rock with your hair, bro. I'm all for it. You're you're reping for all the guys with receding hairlines, and y'all wonder why I probably wear a hat every single time, and my hairline ain't that bad, ain't the best. So I I hate on nobody with a bad hairline because I'm with y'all.
SPEAKER_00Your hair ain't that bad, bro.
SPEAKER_01When I lift this up, man, I my things go woo. But anyways. We're good, we're good. Next up, we got this is gonna be this is gonna be a fire fight, man. I feel really confident on this one too. We got Joel Alvarez at a minus 330 versus Chidi uh N Jwani at a plus 260.
SPEAKER_00Dude, I think.
SPEAKER_01We got Chitty Bang Bang versus Joel Alvarez, bro. That's what they call Chitty Bang Bang.
SPEAKER_00Same thing, no matter what, this fight does not go to the finish.
SPEAKER_01Oh, bro. I I I think Joel Alvarez is going to put Chidi out, whether it's to sleep in a submission or a sleep by punches. Bro, I'm all I've always been big on Joel Alvarez. He's one of those spiders that he he goes on these streaks where he gets himself in contention and then he and then he loses and goes back down a little bit. But he's one of those guys that, you know, in my mind, he's like a s like ranked like like an eight to eight to twenty range rank.
SPEAKER_00Oh he's definitely no, I would say even like eight to twelve.
SPEAKER_01Like he that's like he like very respected, but just can't get in in full contention yet. And cheating at Jaquani is getting older, he's got some damage on him, and I don't think he'll ever be a contender, respectfully, as exciting of a kickboxer he is. I just feel like his his career is more so on the decline right now. Joel is kind of he's he's right in the middle of his prime, kind of more on the end of it, but he's definitely way more prime than Cheedy, and he's um way better fighter overall than Cheedy every day. Joel's a lock, bro. I I like the minus 330. I'm cool with it.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, no, for this for sure, dude. I love Alvarez here. 100%. And again, I this fight doesn't go to the finish. I think he gets a sub here.
SPEAKER_01If Joel loses, then uh we'll probably both be losing our plays. Oh, yeah, I'll be different.
SPEAKER_00I'll be disappointed for sure. Yeah, I mean, I think I just don't know, dude. I don't think Alvarez is gonna want to stay standing that long. I think he's just gonna shoot, take him down, like you said, go go for a triangle choke and just be done with it.
SPEAKER_01Next up we got Esteban Ribovich, Ribovic versus Edson Barbosa. The odds are really um they're real they're wild here. Ribovic is minus 650, minus 600, and Barbosa is a plus 475. Man, if this if Barbosa was about 10 years younger, this fight would be a lot closer, odds wise.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, this is a freaking layup, dude, unfortunately.
SPEAKER_01Barbosa walked in the bigger, and sadly, bro, this is a layup for Ribovic, bro. Barbosa's chin has has really depleted throughout the years, and um I just and his durability as well. You know, I know he always comes in looking absolutely yoked and head shape, but after the first round, he's just not as dangerous. And at this point, um, I just I just feel like Barbosa's not putting anybody out, bro. If he if he wins this fight, he would get a lucky knockout by throwing up a knee throwing a knee up the middle when Ribovic is shooting a takedown. But Ribovic could win however he wants here.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I I think Ribbovic wins with a head kick, bro. Watch it. I think he's gonna try to fake a shoot and then freaking just head kick done. Lights out, bro.
SPEAKER_01He's he's nasty, bro.
SPEAKER_00This will be a good fight, honestly. But Barbosa's lost his last three fights. He's 40 years old. I mean, like this I don't know. He might have two or three more fights left in him.
SPEAKER_01I don't know what his contract is, but I can see this this could be the this could be the end, bro.
SPEAKER_00This can I think this is this is the decline. He's not gonna have much of it.
SPEAKER_01Again, like you said, this is a layup for Esteban because yeah, despite Barbosa being 40 years old, that's a great name to put on your resume wins, you know, because Barbosa has been respected for his entire career, so it's a great name to have on your resume.
SPEAKER_00100%.
SPEAKER_01Next up, we got Mansur Abdul Malik versus Dustin Stolfus. Uh Stolffuss is a UFC veteran, been in for a long time. Mansur Abdul Malik is an absolute unit, bro. He he's he's young, fresh, powerful. Um you don't want to stand in bang with this guy. No, unfortunately, he's a minus 650. Um Stolfus is sit Stolsfuss is sitting at a plus 475. If you're taking Dustin here, you gotta take him by submission. That's that's my opinion. He's he maybe gets a takedown and pulls off a submission, bro.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I mean, if something crazy happens, that's his only pack to victory. I think Abdullah Malik get gets the this is like a career builder fight. I think he gets the KO, and then that's it. Um Dustin's been in a slump. He's fought a lot of good people, honestly. He's had a good career. He's just been in a slump. Yeah, he's just been in a slump. So I I don't know. Same thing. I don't see him going too much longer after this, but I think this is this is a career building moment for Abdullah Malik.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Man, Mansur has unbelievable power. I mean, he's just one of those guys where
SPEAKER_00he he might even if he doesn't hit you clean you might be out cold you know he's got extreme power so watch out watch out for that fight because um and I think personally the if you're gonna take Malik you might as well just take him by knockout too um I don't know what the odds would be if you take him in rounds one or two but probably still at a minus honestly oh yeah because the odds are so in his favor this next one I feel like we're gonna be split we got Jalen Turner versus Cal Fernandez oh man you already know I'm a fan of Jalen Turner bro you already know let me see that who you're taking so uh yeah I I'm leaning towards Jalen Turner uh I feel like he's got better competition he can win on both sides he's got good grappling I feel like his downfall is sometimes he gets caught up in the like in the altercations like he likes to stand and bang and then he gets caught and then it lights out for him but if he can fight smart stay on the outside focus on his punching shoot in strategically and then go for a submission I think he's got a chance but again this is one of those fights that it does not go to the finish.
SPEAKER_01Either one of these guys could finish the fight it's not going all three rounds this this could be one of the the fights of the night right here yeah I it's definitely gonna be fireworks I'm gonna be honest with you bro I'm on the Fernandez side here I'm not crazy about it but I really do like it because if Jalen if Jalen Turner was active he would probably minus 200 here minus 250 honestly you know Jalen Turner has always been a contender he's huge for the division bro he's massive he's I don't know how he makes weight you know I know he's tall and skinny but I mean he's like 6'3 cutting to 155 he's massive but the thing is his inactivity bro I hate betting on guys that have one foot in the game and one foot out and he quote unquote retired a a a year and a half or two ago and I don't know how much he's been training but I know that Fernandez has never skipped a beat with his training he's 11 and two um I just feel like Jalen Turner's comeback fight this is gonna be a close one but Fernandez is going to edge him out in a dish decision and um Turner's gonna this will be his like just humbling getting back into the UFC like get getting back in the groove of things but I just don't I can't take him with inactivity bro.
SPEAKER_00I mean I got you but his he had two fights last year one in March and one in December so it hasn't been too bad.
SPEAKER_01Turner fought in December?
SPEAKER_00Yeah he fought in December he he beat up uh Barbosa with the TKO first round I'm I'm tripping about the inactivity game I think you're right but I think it was like two years ago because I think it like the beginning of 24 is when he took a little bouge out and then he came back and he lost against Ignacio and then he came back and beat Barbosa.
SPEAKER_01You're right okay okay my bad my bad bro you're you're totally right I remember he had his long laugh but anyways um even though I was pr super wrong on that activity with recently I will say I I think it holds true though that he has mentally been checked out of the game often there there is a problem with him mentally because sometimes he comes in and completely manhandles people and then the next fight he'll come and just act like he doesn't even want to be there like you said and then he just feed out for Tuesday comes in bro sometimes and I'm like oh my god bro like Turner's not you know and he's nasty he can knock you out more submitted he can he can beat you any way he wants but it's just is he okay up here you know it's just one of those fighters that you question the mental and again in this fight I just feel like Fernandez has been putting in the work and um I feel like he's got more of an upsider and I think Turner I'm just interested to see where Turner sits right now because his win over his win over Barbosa I just I don't think that that's that's not huge very appealing to me.
SPEAKER_00Yeah that's not huge by no means but same thing doing it on Wednesday like this podcast is on Wednesday we you really got to wait till weigh ins and see where these guys see how much how much they look sucked out how terrible they look getting on you know on on the scale I mean if they get on the scale make way in and jump off and they're like yeah that's a good sign but if they're like depleted and they're just like alright goodbye that's not a good sign you know facts.
SPEAKER_01Alright um here we go the first title fight of the night bro I'm telling you right now and I I have nothing against women's MMA this has nothing to do with that but stylistically McKenzie Dern and Jillian Robertson is going to be the most boring matchup in the world if you're a casual and you like seeing like an you know stand and bang knockout or it's not gonna be like last week bro this this will be absolute this will be an absolute snooze fest I'm gonna say this is gonna be like the Rose Namahunus versus um uh Car Carla um what's her name Carla is uh this is like yeah the man but it was a great fight last week yeah they're just on the ground the whole time but Dern she's got nasty submission game um she can pull she's one of the best jujitsu specialists maybe the best in that division one of the best in women's MMA in general but Jillian Robertson has probably the best wrestling in the division you know so this is like that um stylistic matchup of jujitsu versus wrestling so why I think it'll be a snooze fest is is Dern is trying to pull off submissions she's gonna be in that vulnerable position of being on her back the whole fight so Robinson's just gonna be laying on top of her avoiding submissions and winning on control time so my prediction Robertson wins by decision here because she she holds Dern on the map the entire fight tries to submissions she almost gets a couple but Robinson's too she's too well trained to defend the chokes bro she's too well versed she does have as good as jujitsu but she can defend it.
SPEAKER_00If this fight would have happened like two or three years ago Dern a hundred percent but I feel like Dern is kind of plateaued out and I feel like Robertson just keeps getting her skills better. She's been doing much better in the ring the last two three years. I dude I love Robertson's here and she's the underdog too so I'm I even love it even more.
SPEAKER_01And we got Robertson sent in a plus one seventy seven I know a lot of people like Dern too you know that there's a big part of the UFC fan base that thinks she's a hottie and she'll probably get some uh you know money her way from betting wise because you know they probably not and Jillian Robertson real UFC fans know who she know who she is all day but you know casuals might not know who she is you know and I I don't know if if this is or not but this might be Jillian's first title fight.
SPEAKER_00But this is a great matchup for her and I just don't feel like Dern Dern is respectfully one of the worst uh talented champions that we've seen in the UFC I mean as good as her jujitsu is she has no wrestling and she has zero stand-up zero boxing zero kicking game it's pretty surprising that she is a champion and the only reason is because that belt was vacated and then she had you know fought the intern for that belt yeah I mean I I definitely like uh Robertson here and she beat Lemos which Dern did it Dern got beat out by Lemos yeah yeah bro I like Robertson a lot that's the best dog of the night and I don't even know how she's a dog it should be a pick'em in my opinion that's what I thought I thought I was gonna be closer even though it's the title fight and you've been saying it like all year almost every co-tech you know co fight or co-main or main event a dog wins like almost every single time so I think this is the dogs are hot this year yeah so this is the underdog for the whole team 100% I did not think you were going to be picking Robertsons bro I gotta I'm not gonna lie I thought you were gonna be on the I do I will I picked Dern in a lot of spots in the past but this one it's just it's just not making sense to me I mean unless Jillian you know goes into aggressive and gets her net neck snatched up I just I just don't see it bro she's gonna be laying on top of her the whole night yeah I think exactly I I agree dude I think her wrestling is gonna out outbeat Dern and same I think probably a lot of boosts but Jillian's gonna be one happy champ when she gets uh that belt wrapped around her I'm with Joe dude unfortunately I feel like that that's just part of the game you know so it's like if you can win with control time congratulations it's not exciting it's obviously not what the fans want and not what Dana want but that's just on that's just part of the game unfortunately it's like going to a baseball game and it being like zero zero going into the eighth inning that's just that's just part of it sometimes you know yeah and and to be fair when I when I talk about it being a snooze fest and being boring I kind of speak more so for like the general public or casuals you know people that really love the game understand it.
SPEAKER_01Like I love you know I I don't mind a baseball game that's 0-0. I don't mind a football game that's three to three you know I might be like oh my god dude the offense can't get nothing going and talk some crap but I respect the game bro like you know at the end of the day you gotta win you gotta win ugly you gotta win you you gotta win every type of way so I don't mind watching I just I respect it and and also you know especially with the UFC these fighters are putting their lives on the line whether it's boring or entertaining they're sacrificing their lives to step into the ring so I respect it even if they're just laying on each other trying to find a better position.
SPEAKER_00Yeah exactly but it's still at any point you could get your elbow broke or a freaking ankle lock or passed out I mean you could you get choked out no problem. So anything could happen you know takes one bad scramble and you get caught up yeah facts bro all right and then we the um most meaningful fight of the night this isn't this will bring a ton of eyes I think um this will be one of the most viewed cards of the cards of the year we got the pound for pound best fighter in the UFC Islam Makachev versus Ian Gary Mokachev's a minus 330 Gary's sitting around a plus 260 plus 270 take the floor the this is a kind of a crazy one but I think Islam wins but same thing I think he's gonna wrestle and just take the control time Ian's definitely got the better stand-up and I think Islam knows that and he's not gonna allow himself to get caught up in the you know the f the boxing part of it so much. So I think this goes to the decision Islam could get a sub you know again in one of those wild scrambles something could happen. The only thing is Ian is so tall and lanky I think it might be a little bit harder for him to like be able to control him constantly I think Ian's gonna be able to you know do his own type of like maneuvers or figure fours or body walks to try to keep him from moving around too much. But I don't think Islam's just gonna be like be able to jump on his back and choke him out immediately. And typically I feel like with the championship five rounds the first round they're just kind of feeling each other out. It's like not necessarily a whole lot happens the second round they start moving and getting going it so it's like the third round that's when we really start to see these guys' game plan come to life you know by all means Ian could catch him with a you know a nasty left hook or you know a knee or something as he's shooting in but I think honestly I think Islam just takes the control time wins just purely on control time man I I don't necessarily see him getting a submission here but definitely by decision or sub is a possibility. Islam all the way and now saying that I'm gonna put him at the end of my parlays so I can hedge it with Ian and totally feel you know guilt free either way.
SPEAKER_01Bro there's only one man in this entire division that can beat Islam Makachev and unfortunately he's been hurt for the last two years and that's Shavkot Rakamanov that's the only guy that can beat Islam or give him a real run for his money. With this matchup as talented and good as Ian Gary is I just think Islam's gonna wrap him up like a blanket whether he wins on control time or pulls off the submission I personally think that Islam's gonna have an even easier time with Ian Gary being a taller fighter because as I look at Islam's uh fights where he struggled despite different weight classes right he struggled with Armand Saruki and an Armand's first fight in the UFC and Arman is tiny he's hard to get a hold of and I think Islam struggles more with the tiny guys because it's harder to get a hold of their leg. And then Islam also struggled with Volk in his first fight and Volk's really store and stout too tiny yeah Ian's real tall I think I think Islam will have no problem getting one of Ian's legs the only path to victory I see Ian Gary and we Gary winning is if he throws the knee up the middle and hits it you know gets it gets it gets Islam square on the chin while shooting a takedown. If I look at the cardio it's gonna be Islam Ian Gary does have good cardio but it's Islam on the cardio um power probably Ian Gary I mean Ian Gary does have a lot of power he's more like precise but Ian Gary has better hands and better kickboxing. Islam's isn't bad but Ian definitely is better there but when it comes to the wrestling and some in jujitsu Islam is just I mean the best in the entire world I mean it's on the top of the top that's the Akin wrestling is just different and I just feel like he is so dominant there that um I just don't think this will be an issue for him.
SPEAKER_00So and like you said again going back to the high Ian wants to stay on the outside right and basically like you said find his way in like a sniper where Islam's just going to be all over him on the inside. And I just don't think he's gonna be able to get those power shots. So I again I I agree with you I think the only way is if he catches a knee coming in or something crazy like that.
SPEAKER_01Although I think Islam's just gonna wrestle him up dude honestly and you also you get you your cardio burns out a hell of a lot faster when you're on your back foot all night. So like you said I completely agree. If Gary's you know the first two rounds you bet your you bet your ass Gary's gonna be juking he's gonna be moving like crazy in the ring he's gonna be because he's gonna have the best footwork ever he's gonna be but he's gonna be backpedaling and moving because he's gonna be avoiding Islam's takedowns. So Islam's not going to be exerting any energy whatsoever. Ian Gary might tag him up with a couple you know a couple jabs but Islam's just going to be you know as soon as he gets a hold of his leg you just have to assume the entire rest of that round is going to be winning on control time by Islam trying to find dominant positions whether he's looking for submissions or just ground and pound. So that's how every round's gonna start off every Ian Gary better is going to be like alright he's got another chance you know because he's got five rounds to start every round on his feet but I'm telling you he's only going to get a couple jabs and it's just a matter of time because once Islam it's gonna be similar to that Jack de la Madalena fight. I think that Islam um may I I think Islam will be more competitive with Ian Gary than Jack but still this should be easy work for Islam. This is gonna be one of those fights where um they talk about Islam as you know in that in that goat conversation. Yeah he's just S tier bro honestly you can't knock him out he I mean he's willing to eat a couple punches to freaking shoot in for a single you know I mean he's not gonna be a little bit and his kickboxing's pretty underrated bro like it's not the best but bro he's effective standing up and he's kind of awkward too and you have to worry so much about his takedowns that you know he can kind of do what he wants up here because you're so frightened about him shooting.
SPEAKER_00Yeah I exactly and again there he has to get in close the distance even to even to shoot or to throw punches and kickbox Ian because Ian's so lanky. So I mean it I think it's in a mess up with Ian's timing and I just don't see Ian winning this fight dude again unless he gets a lucky knee or something crazy happens I think Islam all day.
SPEAKER_01Yeah yep all right bro let's get into our it's time for the betting portion of the podcast uh usually sorry mad dog gives out his martinale martingale play and then a par layer two and then I'll give out give out some plays as well you guys are welcome to tail fade us whatever you want to do but this is where this is what we're looking at right now on a Wednesday.
SPEAKER_00Right all right so for the Martingale I'm not going as heavy as I normally would because I some of these odds are a little crazy. So I'm taking brah Heemaj for the round one Johnson for leg two and then Turner for leg three. So it's one unit four units and then ten units. So I I feel good that I get it done in the first fight though.
SPEAKER_01Okay.
SPEAKER_00And then for my parlays I had two of them I just believe so hardcore that these fights don't go the distance so I'm taking the Jalen Turner not to go the distance uh the the Gore uh Luke fight to not go the distance and the Barboza Ribovix fight not to go the distance and that the odds are kind of crazy because I'm doing it not you know not under two and a half or under one and a half. So it ends up being those three is plus one forty four. That's not bad bro I don't like that I still get plus money and then I'm taking um Malik Ribbicks and Islam and it's minus 138 that's my parlay oh that's a fire that's fire I know that's one of those I don't want to say share thing but that's a really safe bet.
SPEAKER_01It's Ribovic and Islam is fire. I love that yeah I think simple sweet very very favorable matchups and it's it's almost like you know you're it's like giving a little house edge on a blackjack hand but I'll take that any day of the week bro yeah I mean I'm just I'm just trying to take the win right now. Alright so um I'm gonna do um I feel like this will be a great a really good payout I'm gonna take gore leg one this will be a parlay all right yep Alvarez leg two yep I do like a lot Roberts leg three and Islam leg four i'm I'm thinking that's gonna sit at a plus 400 brother oh probably more dude especially with Robertson Gore Robertson and Alvarez plus 773 bro that's flames that's actually fire bro honestly I really do think Robertson gets it done dude bro you literally if you so if you put like I think that'd be equivalent to if you put like 14 bucks on that that I think that'd pay 100 yeah 14 pays 108 yeah 14 pays 108 13 pays 100 even okay yeah that bro that's heat I I like that a lot yeah no it's because once Gore wins you're I mean again I I I feel like Robertson isn't an underdog so I'd still shocked that it wasn't closer to a pick'em obviously the champion probably always typically gets the you know the slightly better odds but I'm surprised it wasn't closer to a pick'em yeah I think you know this is a bad idea this is a terrible idea but never hedge too early unless it's the last fight but yeah I am I am a menace at times so my mindset is since Gore is the riskiest play he's the first leg. Alvarez I expect to win so my mindset is Gore wins and Alvarez wins I think Islam's a lock. So what I would do is if the first two legs hit I'd put like five you know if I'm banned like 14 right I'll put five bucks on Dern by submission because I think Dern's only chances by submission and that would be my hitch because I I I don't I don't feel fear Ian Gary.
SPEAKER_00Yeah no I don't I don't really feel yeah not in this matchup and practically any other matchup yes but not not this one.
SPEAKER_01Yeah and then um if I'm giving out like a like a sure thing like a parlay I'd say I like uh Alvarez uh Alvarez Ribovich and uh Islam so same as yours I would just add uh Joel to it and that'd probably boost it to maybe a plus one one fifty five maybe minus one hundred because my bad my bad yeah yeah it's basically I mean it's just an even play I'll do that dude for a unit too I like that again I think Riviks gets it done Islam gets it done Alvarez gets it done so I mean I this is a good I think that's a you want to do a quarter unit crazy one I think we should do this every week where we'll just do a quarter unit on all of our plays we agree on.
SPEAKER_00Dude because there's only been like we always seem to miss it by like one or two people even picking eight you know like parlay it's crazy. So I mean if we hit one of these we're set for the rest of the year.
SPEAKER_01Hey when we're mutual on a p on a pick it it's like eighty five percent gonna happen. At least yeah all right so let's do let's do brahmash yeah baby let's do let's do Alvarez Yeah, Abdul Malik, Jillian, and Islam.
SPEAKER_00Perfect, yeah.
SPEAKER_01Those are all ones that we both have the same uh picks for.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. Plus a thousand.
SPEAKER_01Oh, yeah, I like that a lot, bro. Honestly. Like that's that's super attractive. I like that a lot.
SPEAKER_00I do like that actually. I don't though I hate to say it, the only real one, dude, that would be the crazy one, would be the Neil Magney if he gets the upset right away. Outside of that, I feel pretty freaking solid about this.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Hey, and if any of you guys out there just want to, I would say like the best dog of the night, if you just want to put a straight bet is take Jillian Robertson, bro.
SPEAKER_00Again, like that's the best dog of the night, 100%.
SPEAKER_01And that girl, I just see it right now. Like I can just see her getting the belt wrapped around her, bro. Like, Jillian's just one of those girls that she works her ass off, bro. Like she trains so hard. Um, she's married to the game. You know, she she's dedicated to her. Yeah, she's she's you know, just steadily inclined in her UFC career. She's put the work in, and I just feel like uh Dern is the most winnable championship matchup that Robertson that Robertson could possibly have.
SPEAKER_00Right?
SPEAKER_01So I mean Robertson lost- I don't I I don't know for a fact, I gotta think it's on my head because I don't have my tablet with me, but I I I want to say that wasn't that division the one where Way Zhang Way Lee left the division to go to another division because none none of those girls were beating Zhangway Lee. None of them would beat her.
SPEAKER_00And Dern lost to Zhang Yan.
SPEAKER_01Uh yeah, yeah, Jan Shannon. Yep, she lost to her.
SPEAKER_00She lost against Andrea, she lost against Amanda Lemos. So, I mean, she beat Lupita, she beat Amanda Ribbis, and then uh Verna was the last one. But Jillian, dude, she she's been on a freaking tyrant. She beat Amanda Lemos. Uh let's see some other ones.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, Dern beat uh Vangiroba uh Vangiroba for the belt, or Verna, Jangiroba for the belt, and I think Gillian would beat Verna pretty easily, bro. I think Verna is like really, she's probably that 5-10 range fighter.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, no, 100%, dude. I mean, really, it's like Roberts lost to Miranda Maverick in 2021. She lost to Aldrich in 2022, and then she lost to Ricky in 23, and she's just been killing it since.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I think she yeah, I think she's got better and better now. I don't think she'd hold the belt for a long time, but this is this is her fight, bro. This is her matchup.
SPEAKER_00I don't know. I think she I think this might push her over the edge, dude. I think she'll get this. I think, like you said, she's gonna go right back to training. She's gonna do everything she can to keep this for a while.
SPEAKER_01Dude, and her nickname's the Savage. Come on, man.
SPEAKER_00Come on, bro. Come on. Now she's she's like you said, she's fully committed. She's not one foot in, one foot out. She's this is what she wants. This is what dreams are made of.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Alright, bro. Those are picks for UFC. Um again, ride with us, tell us whatever you want to do, but that's what we got. Um that's it for this UFC card. And then I'm trying to think. Oh, we got um this is NFL season's starting really soon. So I'm gonna say probably next week, I'm gonna come up with some topics and we'll start it with the UFC, we'll do NFL as well. So we're gonna start doing NFL next week, and I got a whole bunch of topics ready to roll. So I'll send them to you a couple days before the pot so you know what we'll talk about.
SPEAKER_00Yep, yeah, let's do that, dude. Yeah, because I think uh preseason, I want to say starts Sunday. This Sunday.
SPEAKER_01And then I thought there was a game last week already.
SPEAKER_00That was the Hall of Fame game. So that I mean, technically there was, but it's it officially kicks off this week. Yeah, yep. The preseason starts. Because I feel like they bring old guys back to do the Hall of Fame game and give out all the you know Hall of Famers their medals and jerseys and stuff.
SPEAKER_01I low-key hate preseason games, bro. It it just it's like a teaser, man.
SPEAKER_00It's like horrified practice, let's be honest. I mean, there's a lot of starters aren't really playing that much. Most of the time, they're trying to figure out who's gonna be second and third string. I mean, let's be honest. This is this is where they start making cuts going into the season. So, I mean, if you're betting on preseason, you're a degenerate. You're freaking crazy.
SPEAKER_01You took that out of my mouth. I literally was just waiting to burst it out. I was I was literally just gonna say I was gonna say, bro, if you are a person who bets on freaking preseason NFO football, you're the same person that bets Russian ping pong at 2 a.m. or Korean baseball in the middle of the night. You're that you're that guy.
SPEAKER_00There's just there's just no reason. I mean, there's just there's no reason.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, you're out, you're out your mind, and you need to respectfully find some more purpose in your life. Leave preseason betting alone.
SPEAKER_00100%. This is all just for it's basically glorified practice. It's like scrimmages, essentially, dude.
SPEAKER_01I mean it's I'm not I I'm not I'm not like promoting gambling, but I will say if you do want some action at the beginning of NFL season, put that preseason money into future bets. Who do you think is gonna win the who do you think is gonna win the Super Bowl? And then you can cheer for that team all season, and whether you win or not, at least your money lasted a little bit versus bet in a freaking preseason game with the third and fourth string quarterbacks that might end up being accountants in two years.
SPEAKER_00Exactly, dude. 100%, bro. Or the same thing, like you said, dude, do your you know, future bets, pick your team to you know win over seven or eight or twelve games for the year.
SPEAKER_01I mean you can bet MVP, bro. You can bet comeback player of the year, rookie of the year. Man, you can bet someone most receiving yards, rushing yards. Yes, put put don't put preseason bets into futures if you're gonna do that.
SPEAKER_00Don't throw it away. There's just no risk reason, it's just too much risk.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. All right, guys. That's it tonight for Mike's Up and Misinformed.
SPEAKER_00Boom. I love it.