Iran Talks Heat Up, Carroll Case Gets Criminal, and AI's Trillion-Dollar Moment

In this episode of The Morning Rundown, hosts Maya and David work through a packed news cycle covering escalating Middle East tensions, notable developments in U.S. politics and the justice system, and a major shakeup in the AI industry.

Listeners will get grounded context on why a potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal is moving oil markets, what Netanyahu's 70% Gaza directive signals about Israeli strategy, and how back-channel Pentagon diplomacy coexists with ongoing airstrikes in Lebanon. On the domestic side, the hosts break down the DOJ's criminal probe into the funding behind E. Jean Carroll's lawsuits against Trump, a federal court's refusal to block mail-in voting changes, and a Supreme Court ruling on racial bias in a Mississippi death row case. The episode closes with a look at Anthropic's dramatic rise to a $965 billion valuation and an FBI warning about a phishing scheme called Kali365 that can hijack your accounts without ever stealing your password.

• U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks: JD Vance says a deal is close but not finalized; oil dropped over 1% on the news alone, reflecting how much markets are watching.
• Gaza and Lebanon: Netanyahu orders Israeli forces to take control of 70% of Gaza while Israeli and Lebanese officials head to Washington for Pentagon talks, even as airstrikes on Lebanon continue.
• DOJ probe into Carroll lawsuit funding: The investigation targets both Carroll's deposition statements and the nonprofit that bankrolled her legal case, raising questions about the legality of litigation funding.
• Anthropic leapfrogs OpenAI: A $65 billion funding round pushes Anthropic's valuation to $965 billion, with growing enterprise trust seen as a key factor in its rise.
• Kali365 phishing warning: The FBI says this scheme hijacks active browser sessions rather than stealing passwords, meaning two-factor authentication alone is not sufficient protection.

Transcript

0:13

[Maya] Good morning and welcome to the morning rundown. I'm here with David,[Maya] and we have a lot to get through today.[David] Yeah, no shortage of headlines.[David] Like, where do we even start?[Maya] Right?[Maya] So top of the list,[Maya] J.D. Vance is saying the U.S. and Iran are very close to a ceasefire deal.[Maya] The BBC's got it,[Maya] Axios has it.[David] Close, but not there yet.[David] And meanwhile,[David] Netanyahu was ordering Israeli forces to take control of 70% of Gaza.[David] The Financial Times is reporting that.[Maya] 70%! That's wild,[Maya] right?[Maya] And Israel launched hundreds of airstrikes on Lebanon this week, while Israeli and Lebanese officials are heading to Washington for Pentagon talks.[David] A lot moving at once over there.[David] We'll get into all of it.[Maya] Then on the domestic side,[Maya] the DOJ has opened a criminal probe into the funding behind E.[Maya] Jean Carroll's lawsuits against Trump.[Maya] NBC News and The Washington Post both reporting on that.[David] And the FBI's warning about a phishing scheme called Kali365.[David] Live targeting Microsoft Teams and Outlook users,[David] no password needed to hijack your account apparently.[Maya] Great. Super reassuring.[David] Yeah, totally fine.[David] Plus, Anthropic just hit a $965 billion valuation leapfrogging OpenAI.[Maya] Big morning.[Maya] Let's get into it, starting with the Middle East.[Maya] All right,[Maya] good morning.[Maya] Here's where things stand in the Middle East right now. And honestly,[Maya] there's a lot moving at once.[David] Yeah,[David] so let's start with Iran.[David] J.D. Vance was on the record saying the U.S.[David] and Iran are, quote, very close to a deal,[David] but then he added,[David] not there yet.[Maya] And that gap matters because according to the BBC,[Maya] U.S. officials said a ceasefire extension framework has basically been agreed pending approval from Trump and Iran's leadership.[Maya] So we're at the one yard line.[David] Right,[David] and Reuters reported oil fell over 1% just on those reports.[David] That's how much pressure is sitting on this.[David] Markets moved on a rumor.[Maya] That's wild, right?[Maya] 1% drop before anything's even signed.[David] Which tells you everything about what a deal, an actual deal,[David] would do to oil prices.[Maya] And look,[Maya] the conservative read here is that U.S. pressure toward a deal isn't weakness,[Maya] it's pragmatic.[Maya] You want the Strait of Hormuz open.[Maya] You want oil stable.[Maya] That's in everyone's interest.[David] Totally. And Axios is reporting this is a ceasefire extension,[David] not a full normalization.[David] So let's not get ahead of ourselves.[David] Trump and his team have thought they were close before and talks stalled.[Maya] Multiple times.[David] Multiple times.[David] So very close is not the same as done.[Maya] Okay,[Maya] so while that's hanging in the air,[Maya] Gaza is escalating.[Maya] The Financial Times reported that Netanyahu has ordered Israeli forces to take control of 70% of Gaza.[David] 70 percent?[David] That's not a targeted operation anymore.[Maya] No, it's not. That's a major shift in scope.[Maya] Netanyahu's framing is that Israel is squeezing Hamas while also escalating in southern Lebanon at the same time.[David] Yeah,[David] and the Lebanon piece is significant too.[David] DW reported that Israeli...[David] got launched hundreds of airstrikes on Lebanon this week.[Maya] Hundreds.[David] And now Israeli and Lebanese officials are heading to Washington for security talks at the Pentagon.[Maya] Um,[Maya] which is honestly a sign that back-channel diplomacy is still moving, even while the bombs are dropping.[Maya] That's not nothing.[David] No, it's actually kind of encouraging in a weird way. You're talking to each other. That matters.[Maya] So you've got three threads happening simultaneously.[Maya] Iran on the edge of a deal,[Maya] Gaza being carved up.[Maya] Lebanon in active strikes but heading into talks.[David] It's a lot,[David] and they're all connected.[David] If the Iran deal collapses again, you lose leverage across all of it.[Maya] Exactly.[Maya] The Iran framework, if it holds,[Maya] is what gives the U.S. any standing to push both sides in Gaza and Lebanon towards something resembling stability.[David] And Vance knows that, which is probably why he's talking publicly about being close.[David] There's pressure being applied here.[Maya] Right, this is an escalation.[Maya] You don't say very close on the record unless you want both sides to feel the heat to finish it.[David] So it's a negotiating move as much as a status update.[Maya] Possibly.[Maya] Look, we'll see,[Maya] but the Pentagon talks with Lebanon are genuinely worth watching.[Maya] That's where you'll know if the diplomatic track is real or just optics.[David] Agreed. And oil markets are basically a real-time signal on all of this.[David] If prices keep drifting down...[David] Traders think a deal is coming.[David] If they spike,[David] something went wrong.[Maya] Your oil price is your news alert.[David] Basically,[David] yeah.[Maya] So here's a question to sit with.[Maya] If all this pressure from the White House is being applied right now in the Middle East,[Maya] what does that say about how this administration is using federal power more broadly?[David] That is a very good question,[David] Maya.[Maya] Because there's some news back home that fits that same theme pretty squarely.[Maya] Shifting gears to some domestic news that's been moving fast.[David] Yeah,[David] and there's a lot here.[David] Let's start with the DOJ story,[David] because this one's pretty significant.[David] The Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into E.[David] Jean Carroll's lawsuits against Trump, and specifically into a Democratic-aligned non-profit that helped pay her legal bills.[Maya] Wait,[Maya] a criminal probe?[Maya] Not just looking into it, but actually criminal?[David] Criminal.[David] NBC News confirmed it.[Maya] Yeah.[David] And according to the Washington Post,[David] the investigation centers[David] anchors partly on Carroll's statements during her civil lawsuit deposition.[Maya] So this isn't about re-litigating the jury verdict,[Maya] it's about whether the funding of that litigation crossed a legal line.[David] Exactly.[David] And look, however you feel about the underlying case,[David] the question of third-party groups quietly bankrolling litigation is a real legal issue.[David] If money flowed in ways that weren't disclosed, that's worth scrutiny.[Maya] The New York Times piece on this noted that scrutiny is now turning toward[Maya] Toward private citizens who are involved in antagonizing Trump.[Maya] Some people read that as payback,[Maya] others as equal application of the law.[David] Yeah, and that tension is just kind of baked into this whole situation.[David] The DOJ says it's following the law wherever it leads.[David] Critics say the timing is suspicious.[David] Both things get said every time something like this happens.[Maya] Right.[Maya] No easy answers there.[Maya] But people should know it's happening.[David] Agreed. Okay,[David] so separately,[David] a federal judge declined to block Trump's executive order on mail-in voting,[David] at least for now.[David] So the changes are going forward?[Maya] For now,[David] yeah.[David] The New York Times reported the judge held off on issuing a block,[David] which means the administration's changes stay in place while the legal fight continues.[David] That's a real win for the White House.[Maya] Mail-in voting has been contested territory since 2020,[Maya] Mail-in voting has been contested territory since 2020,[Maya] and getting a court to not intervene,[Maya] even temporarily,[Maya] is meaningful.[David] Mm-hmm. And it's not the final word.[David] This will get appealed probably more than once.[David] once; but as a first ruling the Administration will take it.[Maya] Okay,[Maya] and then there's a Supreme Court ruling that I think deserves a quick mention because it's actually a pretty striking legal development.[David] Terry Pitchford.[Maya] I've heard right?[David] Yeah.[David] Mississippi death row inmate?[David] The Washington Post covered it.[David] He's been arguing for two decades that his conviction was tainted by racially biased jury selection.[David] The Supreme Court sided with him.[Maya] And this isn't a political story so much as an institutional one.[Maya] The court looked at a case, looked at the evidence of racial bias in how jurors were picked,[Maya] and said, that's not okay.[David] Which, whatever your politics,[David] that's the system working.[David] Slowly,[David] but working.[Maya] Two decades.[Maya] Slowly-the quiet laugh.[David] I mean,[David] yeah.[David] But still.[Maya] Fair enough.[Maya] All right, so the DOJ probe on the Carroll case is the big one to watch,[Maya] the mail-in voting ruling is a short-term win for Trump,[Maya] and the Supreme Court reminded everyone it'll still step in on due process.[David] Busy courts.[Maya] Always.[Maya] And speaking of big money moving in ways nobody quite expected,[Maya] we've got a wild AI story to get into.[David] Oh, this one,[David] the Anthropic number?[Maya] The Anthropic number,[Maya] buckle up.[Maya] Lop.[David] Okay,[David] shifting gears to tech,[David] and David, this one genuinely surprised me.[Maya] What are we talking?[David] Anthropic,[David] the company behind Claude,[David] their valuation just hit $965 billion.[David] They leapfrogged OpenAI.[Maya] Wait,[Maya] really?[Maya] Anthropic past OpenAI?[David] According to Reuters and Al Jazeera, yeah,[David] they just closed a $65 billion funding round.[David] around nearly a trillion dollar valuation.[Maya] I mean, that's a number,[Maya] but what does it actually say?[David] So here's the thing. It's not just hype chasing.[David] Enterprise customers have been moving towards Anthropic in a big way.[David] There's a trust factor baked into Claude that companies seem to prefer when they're putting AI into serious workflows.[Maya] Right,[Maya] and OpenAI has had some messy public moments.[Maya] Leadership drama,[Maya] the Sam Altman saga.[Maya] Anthropic kind of positioned itself as the quieter more reliable option not[David] Exactly. So the money is following that perception,[David] nearly a trillion dollars worth.[Maya] too bad for the responsible AI lane[David] Not bad at all.[David] And speaking of AI doing things in the real world,[David] the New York Times had a piece today about Schneider Electric,[David] a French manufacturer,[David] using AI on the factory floor to make workers more productive rather than replace them.[David] Then replace them.[Maya] Hmm,[Maya] that's a different story than you usually hear.[David] It is.[David] Most of the AI-and-jobs coverage is about layoffs. This is the other version.[David] Whether it scales beyond one company is a real question,[David] but it's worth noting that the model exists.[Maya] Right,[Maya] Right.[Maya] And honestly,[Maya] if you're a worker,[Maya] you want to see more of that model.[David] For sure.[David] Okay,[David] now the thing I actually want everyone to hear before they close the app.[Maya] No.[David] The FBI issued an urgent warning this week.[David] and Inc covered it.[David] There's a phishing scheme actively targeting Microsoft Teams,[David] Outlook,[David] and OneDrive users.[Maya] Oh, that's basically everyone with a work laptop.[David] Nothing, the activity kit is called Kali365, and here's what makes it different.[David] It doesn't steal your password.[Maya] Wait,[Maya] how does it get in then?[David] It hijacks your session.[David] So you log in normally,[David] you're authenticated,[David] and then the kit[David] It intercepts that active session token.[David] Password is irrelevant at that point.[Maya] So two factor authentication doesn't save you.[David] Not necessarily, no,[David] because you already cleared that step when you logged in.[David] The session is what gets grabbed.[Maya] That's actually scary,[Maya] like legitimately.[David] It is. And what's wild is the FBI says low-skill scammers are using this.[David] It's not nation-state stuff.[David] It's widely available.[Maya] So what do people actually do?

[David] A few things: 10:40

[David] be skeptical of any unexpected Teams messages with links,[David] especially from outside your organization,[David] log out of sessions you're not actively using,[David] and if your company has session timeout policies,[David] this is a good reason to enforce them.[Maya] Also probably a good moment to check whether your organization has conditional access rules set up in Microsoft's admin tools.[David] Yes, that's the IT version of the advice,[David] but yeah,[David] the point is, this one's moving fast and it's hitting real inboxes right now.[Maya] Good catch.[Maya] Genuinely useful for anyone who just heard that on their commute.[David] All right,[David] that's a wrap on today's episode.[David] A lot to sit with.[Maya] Yeah,[Maya] I mean, the Iran deal conversation really stuck with me.[Maya] Markets moved on a rumor.[Maya] That tells you everything about the pressure behind those talks.[David] Right? And the Gaza 70% order?[David] That's a strategic shift,[David] not a tactical one.[David] Worth watching closely.[Maya] Big picture today,[Maya] diplomacy is loud,[Maya] messy,[Maya] and somehow still moving.[David] Basically.[Maya] Hey,[Maya] if you got something out of today's show,[Maya] subscribe and leave us a review.[Maya] It genuinely helps.[David] It does.[David] Thanks for spending your morning with us, seriously.[Maya] We'll be back tomorrow.[Maya] Stay curious,[Maya] everyone.[David] See you then.