Get the Scoop On Latest WASDE Report Updates on Commodity and Livestock Markets

We go full WASDE today with a look at corn, soybean, livestock and dairy markets. We wrap up with a stumble on Wall Street as AI stocks slump.

Transcript

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Hey everybody, welcome to Chap B DC back with a quick update on business news. Today is Wednesday, May 13th, 2026. Today we're going to hit the latest WASDI report pretty hard and then wrap up with a look at Wall Street. So let's get to it. USDA's May World Agriculture Supply and Demand, or WASDI report came out yesterday. Want to share some of the highlights. Starting off in row crops, the 26-27 U.S. corn outlook is for reductions to supply, total use, and ending stocks with higher expected prices. Corn crop is projected at 16 billion bushels, which is down 6% from a year ago on declines to both area crop area and yield. Planted area of 95.3 million acres, if that happens, would be down 3.5 million acres. Yield projection of 183 bushels per acre is based on weather-adjusted trend, assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather. Larger beginning stocks partially offset the forecast reduction in production, resulting in total corn supplies declining 2% to 18.1 billion bushels. Total U.S. corn use for 2026-27 is forecast to fall 2% relative to a year ago on reductions to domestic use and exports. Food, seed, and industrial use is forecast flat at 7 billion bushels. Feed and residual use is projected down to 6.1 billion bushels on smaller supplies and higher prices. Corn exports for this year and next are forecast to decline 5% from a year ago to 3.2 billion bushels. With total U.S. corn supply falling more than use, the 26-27 ending stocks are down 185 million bushels from last year. Stocks would represent 12.1% of use down 13 down from 13% the prior year, but above the average of the last five years. This puts the season average farm price projected at $4.40 per bushel, which is up a quarter. Looking at soybeans, the 26-27 outlook shows higher supplies, crush, exports, and lower-ending stocks from the prior marketing year. Soybean crop is projected at 4.435 billion bushels, which is up 173 million bushels from last year's crop. This reflects the trend yield and higher harvested area, along with higher beginning stocks. Supplies are 188 million bushels above the 25-26 marketing year. U.S. soybean exports are projected to rise to 1.63 billion bushels and increase over 2025-26 when tariff measures stop shipments to China. Although U.S. soybean exports are expected to rise in 206-27. The U.S. share of global trade is likely to continue its long-term slide as large South American supplies coupled with strong U.S. demand limit export growth.

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soybean ending stocks for 2026-27 are projected at 310 million bushels, down 30 million from the revised 2025-26 forecast. The 2026-27 U.S. season average soybean price is forecast at $11.40 per bushel compared to $10.40 in 2025-26. Soybean meal price is forecast at $310 a short ton, which is down $5. Oil prices forecast at $70 a pound, which is up 7 cents. Switching over to livestock, total U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2027 is forecast above this year's levels, as higher pork and poultry production more than offsets the lower beef production. Speaking of beef production, that forecast is lower as expected herd rebuilding and increased heifer retention will limit the availability of fed cattle for slaughter. So it's kind of same old, same old. Pork production is 20 in 2027 is forecast to increase despite limited growth and expected fair wings, as improved sow productivity will support larger pig crops and increased slaughter. They're also projecting heavier carcass weights for pigs in 2027. The beef production forecast is lowered on official data through March and lower than expected marketings in the second quarter, due to the ongoing recent pace of steer and heifer slaughter. Marketings were also lowered in the second half of the year due to the slow place of placements into feed lots reported in the first quarter and reduced expectations for second quarter placements. Lower expected cow slaughter also underpins the production decrease, puts the 2026 cattle price forecast, increase from last month on recent data and tighter expected supplies. And the 2027 cattle price is forecast even higher than 26 based on that ongoing tightening of supply. The 2026 milk production forecast has also raised slightly from the previous month for the same reasons a larger cow herd and a slower growth rate and output per cow. Class III price for 2026 is raised on increased cheese and whey prices. The Class 4 prices also raised as higher non-fat dry milk prices were more than offset the effect of lower butter prices. This puts the all-milk price for 2026 a bit higher to $21.25 per hundredweight. Let's wrap up with a quick look at financial markets, rising oil prices and a sudden halt for technology stocks knocked Wall Street off its record highs yesterday. Some of the sharpest drops hit chip companies and stocks that had been on electric runs because of the AI boom. Intel slumped 9.8% after its stock had more than tripled so far this year. Micron technology dropped 7.4% after coming into the day with a gain of nearly 180% for year to date. And Core Weave sank 10.1% to cut its gain of 60% for 2026. The pullback for AI stocks began earlier in the day in Asia, where South Korea's COSP index sank 2.3% from its all-time high on worries that the government may redistribute, may redistribute windfall AI profits from companies to its citizens. Also weighing on Wall Street was another rise in oil prices as the war with Iran continues to drag on. Price for a barrel of Brent crude climbed 3.7% to $108.05, as the fragile U.S. Iran ceasefire looks even more tenuous. The war, as we all know, has essentially shut down the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers, keeping them stuck in the Persian Gulf instead of delivering crude to customers worldwide. And it doesn't look like that's going to change anytime soon. Well, that's all for now. As always, thanks for tuning in. If you found this useful, drop a comment, subscribe, share, and tell all your friends. I'll be back tomorrow with more news across what I can find. I'm Mike Hoffman and goodbye for now.