A Summer Reset for Dairy Prices, Beef Export Numbers Out of Whack, Wet Growing Conditions in Corn States

Today we get a report from Ben Laine at Terrain and a reset on milk prices for the balance of 2026. Then we look at USDA beef export numbers and why they don't jive with market activity. We read a report on growing conditions in corn states and finish with a look at Wall Street. 

Transcript

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Hello and welcome to Chappie DC. Here's the top stories from Black Dirt Daily Today, which is Tuesday, July 7th, 2026. Today we're gonna focus on a reset in dairy prices for the summer. Quick look at export markets on the beef side, uh, some growing conditions in corn growing areas, and finish up with a look on Wall Street. So let's get to it. Let's start in dairy and a report from Ben Lane at terrain. After rising more than expected in April and May, nonfat dry milk prices have fallen rapidly in early June, seeking a new equilibrium. Initially, high prices due to tight supplies in the scramble for protein became out of line with global prices, which isn't necessarily sustainable. Nonfot dry milk and whey have been the commodities that have seen prices climb because of strong protein demand from consumers, but neither of these commodities impacts the protein component value in federal order calculations. Continued export strength will be important support for class III and class four prices. Lane projects class three prices to average $17.25 a hundredweight in the second half of 2026 and class four to average $18.50 a hundredweight. Whether macroeconomic impacts shake up consumer behavior will be an important risk factor to watch. Switching over to beef markets and a story from successful farming with U.S. beef prices soaring and supplies tight, the USDA surprised meat producers and traders on Thursday by reporting a spike in the nation's export sales, which is fueling questions over the accuracy of the data. The beef export sales reported in weekly USDA data, including deals that may have taken place months ago, contributing to the sudden increase, which is what USDA told Reuters. Traders said the total still looked high. U.S. beef exports have declined since 2022 due to high prices and scarce inventories, and an increase would further raise costs for domestic consumers who already face higher grocery bills during the summer grilling season. Beef prices broke records this year due to strong demand and a persistent drought that drove ranchers to slash cattle herds. USDA in its report that net export sales of U.S. beef were delivery in 2026 reached 126,062 metric tons in the week ending June 25th, a marketing year high that was up almost 500% from a week earlier. As we said, the figure may include several months of data, which is what the agency said later in an email. I'm sure that'll all get sorted out eventually. Now let's look at crop news. Another article from Successful Farming, the month of June, ended with 67% of the U.S. corn crop rated good to excellent, according to the USDA Crop Progress Report, which was published last week. USDA reported 9% of the corn crop reached the silking crop growth stage by the week that ended June 28. To understand June's impact on the corn crop, successful farming asked some agronomists in some of the top growing corn states to understand June's impact on the corn crop, successful farming asked their agronomists in some of the top corn growing states to grant to describe June in a single word, reflecting the crop's progress, condition, and challenges in their regions. Similar to May, multiple agronomists agreed that June was best described as variable. Mike Blaine, who's a Minnesota-based agronomist for Bex, said that what started as an abnormally hot, windy, and humid first ten days of June, was followed by two weeks with cool weather and generally drier conditions. Now it appears that June will end the way it began, with its string of seven to ten days of very warm and humid weather. Soybean row closure in 30-inch rows, he says, may still happen by July 5th. Drew Beckman, a Beck's agronomist in Illinois, described June as wet. He says that while June started dry for northwest Illinois, many areas have received 6 to 10 inches of rain or more and just a few rain events. That's led to yellowing and stunted growth in many fields, with soil-borne pathogens wreaking havoc on our soybean stands. Finish upping in financial news, a rebound for AI stocks is sending indexes higher on Wall Street on Monday. S P 500 rose 0.7% and was back within 1% of its all-time high, even though the majority of stocks within the index fell. The strength for companies in the artificial intelligence technology industry had the NASDAQ composite 1.1% higher, and the Dow Jones Industrial was up 44 points or 0.1%. AI stocks have been swinging sharply in recent weeks on worries that their prices shot too high. Doubts are rising about whether all the dollars flowing into AI chips and data centers can possibly create enough gains in productivity and profits to make back all the investments. Broadcom rose 4.3% and was the strongest force lifting the SP 500 after announcing long-term agreements to provide silicon products to Apple. It's coming off two straight losses of more than 2% on Wednesday and Thursday at the end of last week before the holiday for the 4th of July. Well, that's all for now. As always, thanks for tuning in. If you found it useful, drop a comment, subscribe, and tell all your friends. Be sure to check out BlackDirtDaily.com for the full stories behind these topics. Don't forget to sign up to the Black Dirt Daily newsletter. I'll be back tomorrow with more business news across ag and financial markets. Until then, I'm Mike Opperman and goodbye for now.