Global Dairy Prices Drop, We're Reaching Beef-On-Dairy Maturity, What's Ahead for WASDE and Oil Jumps

Today we look at a drop in prices at the latest Global Dairy Trade auction, plus how we may be reaching maturity in the beef-on-dairy market. We look ahead at what to expect for the July WASDE report and a jump in oil prices thanks to a potential end to the U.S./Iran cease fire.

Transcript

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Hello and welcome to Champ B DC. Here's the top stories for the Black Your Daily Today, which is Thursday, July 9th, 2026. Today we're going to focus on the Global Dairy Trade Auction. A look at where we're at with beef on dairy markets and what to expect ahead of tomorrow's WASD report. And a quick wrap-up in financial markets. So let's get to it. The Global Dairy Trade Price Index declined 4.9% compared to the previous event, reflecting lower average values across the dairy products that were traded. Average winning price settled at US dollars of $3,793 per metric ton, which is a new benchmark for global dairy trade. Trading session maintained a high level of commercial activity. A total of 148 bidders participated, which means that buyer interest remained solid despite the decline in prices. Trading volumes were at just over 26,000 metric tons, which suggests that demand absorbed a significant share of the available supply, even though it was at a lower price level than those recorded in the previous event. Every product category saw a drop in price except for buttermilk powder, which jumped 8.2%. Cheddar cheese took the biggest chop into shorts at 12.3% lower. Market participants will closely monitor the upcoming events as the auction continues to serve as one of the world's leading indicators of global dairy commodity prices, and is a good indicator of the balance between global supply and demand. Switching over to livestock markets, an article on uh Beef Magazine by Clint Peck. It's uh the article is a great look at the history of dairy on beef crossbreeding. Switching over to livestock markets and a report on Beef Magazine by Clint Peck. It's a great look at the history of beef on dairy crossbreeding, and I wanted to pull out a few morsels of interest. 2024 survey uh completed by Pirina found uh that among surveyed dairy producers, 72% are actively implementing crossbreeding programs, while another 16% say they're considering it, and 6% said they tried it but aren't aren't currently participating. Another 6% expressed no interest. The report also reported that 80% of dairy farmers and 58% of calf raisers received a premium reaching $700 per head. More recent sale barn reports show that premiums are approaching $1,000 per head, and uh there's a lot of instances where that may be even higher than that $1,000 level. From a carcass standpoint, crossbred beef on dairy steers yielded 28 pounds more hot carcass weight than their straightbred holstein counterparts in the study. They also had significantly larger ribeye areas, up to two square inches, and finished with 74% USTA choice versus purebred holstings, which were at just 25% choice. The Livestock Marketing Information Center a couple years ago suggested a half percent gain in beef produced from beef on dairy carcasses compared to holstein carcasses. And while there's only a slight increase in beef production, the practice results in a significant increase in carcass quality. Even though we've been doing uh beef on dairy for a long time, there are signs that the practice is reaching its maturation and its impacts are probably already baked into today's beef supply chain. There will be some tweaking that'll occur uh within beef on dairy production, namely addressing those lingering liver abscess issues and what to do with bigger carcass size, and we'll probably begin to see uh system-wide integration. Payoff to U.S. ag is a beef on dairy represents a fundamental change in risk management for dairy farms as bringing well as bringing more high-quality U.S. beef to the meat case and more consistent process. Switching over to commodity markets in an article on successful farming, the July World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate report is due out tomorrow. Going into the report, here's what farmers need to know about uh corn, soybean, and wheat markets, and what uh successful's grain market insider will be looking for in updated balance sheets. The grain market insider thinks there's a good chance this week's report will show old crop corn exports increased and ethanol production unchanged. There's no expectation for demand or yield adjustments for new crop corn. They also don't expect any adjustments to old crop soybean demand or ending stocks estimates. New crop ending stocks are likely to be raised, reflecting the higher planted acreage that was in the June 30th uh acreage report. The insider expects ending stocks projection for new crop soybeans to increase by 30 million bushels to 340 million. On the wheat side, uh 2026-27 ending stocks projection uh is expected to be reduced by 40 million bushels to 704 million, reflecting the lower acreage estimates in the June 30th acreage report. A quick wrap-up in financial markets, oil prices uh rose and stock markets dropped worldwide Wednesday after President Trump raised doubts about the temporary truce and the war with Iran. S P 500 fell 0.3% after Trump said the agreement to pause the fighting was over, though he added that he would allow negotiations to continue. Uh at one point the Dow Jones was down 562 points, and the NASDAQ composite was 0.1% higher, thanks to gains for several big AI stocks, including NVIDIA. Action was stronger in the oil market, where the price for a barrel of Brent Crude climbed 5.8%, $78.43. That's well below its peak from earlier in the war when the price for the most actively traded contract reached nearly $120. But the jump is unsettling because oil prices had just dropped back to where they were before the war. Well, that's all for now. As always, thanks for tuning in. If you found it useful, drop a comment, subscribe, and share, and tell all your friends. Check out blackbearddaily.com for the full articles behind these topics. Until then, I like