The Power of U.S. Dairy, a Heat Wave Destroying Pastures, A Crop Marketing Update

Today we start with a look at how the U.S. is gaining significant ground on Europe in the global dairy market, plus how a heat wave is destroying already dry pastures. We then look at a mid-year crop marketing outlook, and a potential new handout from the government. 

Transcript

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Hello, and welcome to Cat BDC. Here's the top stories from Blackbeard Daily today, which is Wednesday, July 15th, 2026. Today we're going to focus on the growth of the U.S. dairy market, the heat wave that's destroying already dry pastures, a look at grain sold percentage, and new help on the horizon from the government. So let's get to it. Start off with a look at dairy and an article on a Rabobank research report on dairyherd.com. A map of global dairy trade is being redrawn. For decades, the old guard of Europe dictated the rhythm of the markets while China acted as a massive vacuum for any surplus supply. As we move into the second half of 2026, a new reality is setting in. According to the Rabbo Research World Dairy Map, the global dairy trade is undergoing a great rebalancing, one where the balance of power is shifting decisively toward the Americas, and the white gold of the past is being traded for the protein pixels of the future. Headline numbers show a resilient industry. Global dairy trade continues to expand at a steady clip of 2% annually, with volumes now surpassing a staggering 100 billion kilograms in liquid milk equivalents. But for the U.S., the so what isn't in the total volume, it's in the underlying dynamics that are positioning the U.S. dairy producer as the primary engine for the next decade of growth. Europe remains the world's largest exporter, but its grip is loosening since 2017. The EU's share of global trade has slipped from 30% to 27%. Reasons are familiar to anyone following the global regulatory landscape. Farmer population is getting older, environmental restrictions are getting tighter, and a sustainability squeeze has placed a ceiling on European production. As Europe contracts, the US, Argentina, and Uruguay are stepping into the void. This isn't just a fluke of the market, it's a structural shift. The US dairy farmer, armed with genomic precision and multi-generational grit, is proving a less constrained regulatory environment combined with massive investments in dairy processing is the winning formula for 2027 and beyond. This is a great article by Karen Bonard. I'd suggest taking a minute to read the full article on dairyherd.com. Next, an article from DTM Progressive Farmer by Jennifer Carico. Heat wave across much of beef cow country will continue to put pressure on pasture and range this week. Significant shift in pasture and range conditions was seen last week in some southwest and plain states, according to the latest USDA crop progress report. The most significant change was seen in New Mexico, which noted a 16 percentage point decrease in the good to excellent conditions, and a 16-point increase in very in very poor to poor conditions. Other states with significant decreases in good to excellent pasture and range conditions included Wyoming with a 9% drop, Montana with a 7-point decrease, Texas with a five-point decrease, and Colorado with a four-point decrease. DTN Egg meteorologist John Baranic said the massive heat wave started in the northern plains this past weekend, with temperatures sh soaring to over 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Temperatures in a few locations in eastern Montana and the western Dakotas made it to over 110. Switch over to commodity markets in an article by Ethan Robson on farm progress. It's been a year of real ups and downs in both corn and soybeans. So where do you sit right now in your program? And if you're being honest, do you wish you'd gotten more aggressive earlier in the year? At the time of uh this podcast, November soybeans not only approached but touched the $12 futures level. And China has started buying U.S. soybeans for the new crop marketing year, which has helped support the move. If you haven't started your new crop soybean program yet, or feel like you're behind a need to make some catch-up sales, is this the time to act? On the corn side, December corn surpassed five dollar futures earlier this year in the new crop contract. If you didn't get sales made during that wind window, don't beat yourself up over it. The goal now is to build a strategy going forward, not dwell on mistiming. Both corn and soybeans have pricked up off recent lows over the last week, finishing strong after the July Wazday report, where USDA tightened new crop ending stocks to 1.79 billion bushels, along with a tighter world carry-out figure. That's a meaningful shift in the balance sheet. All of this puts pressure on the U.S. farmer to produce a trend or better national crop to keep stocks from tightening further. Both the bulls and the bears have risk. Quick financial news the House Budget Committee is expected to mark up a reconciliation bill that would include $20 billion in farm aid along with $70 billion for defense. The package was developed in coordination with the White House and discussed Monday by some House Republican budget lawmakers. House Ag Committee Chair G. T. Thompson from Pennsylvania was among the first lawmakers to propose $20 billion in additional farm assistance in April. His proposal had $10 billion for row crop producers and $10 billion for specialty crop growers. The markup is expected on Thursday and builds upon President Trump's supplemental funding request, which proposed $67 billion for defense related to Iran and $11.1 billion in farm aid. Well, that's all for now. As always, thanks for tuning in to ChatBDC. If you found this useful, drop a comment, subscribe, share, and tell all your friends. Be sure to check out Blackboard Daily.com as well for the full stories and news topics. Please don't forget to sign up for your Blackboard Daily newsletter. I'll be back tomorrow with more business news content on the market and