A Focus on Markets: Dairy Stays High, Cattle Markets Continue Slide, Grain Markets Keep Rally Going

Today we spend our time on market updates. Federal Milk Marketing Order Prices are out for June, and milk prices keep doing well. Cattle markets, on the other hand, have hit a record 15-day slide and we ask if the bottom is near. On the grain side, markets continue to rally although factors impacting prices are still volatile.

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Hello and welcome to Chat BDC. Here's a top story from Blackboard Daily today. This is Monday, July 20th. Today we're going to focus on markets. First with an update on milk prices, then a historic cattle market slide, and finally a continued grain rally. So let's get to it. Starting out in dairy with a market update from Gen Coin on Progressive Dairy. For the sixth consecutive month, the average Federal Milk Marketing Order uniform milk price climbed from the month prior. The year began with an average uniform milk price of $17 per hundredweight, reached $21.59 per hundredweight in June, according to the latest reports. While the average uniform milk price edged upward 72 cents, individual orders saw mixed prices as those utilizing mostly Class III fell month over month. Producer price differentials, however, increased across all orders. Regional uniform milk prices are used as a baseline measurement to calculate milk check levels, although they're not an indicator that of the specific milk prices received by producers. For June, uniform milk prices rose in eight of the eleven orders. The advanced Class One base price reached $22.18 a hundredweight, up two dollars and three cents a hundredweight from the previous month, and four dollars and ninety-two cents higher than the same price in June last year. It's the highest price reported since November 2024. At $22.78 per hundredweight, the class two price increased two dollars and fifty cents from the previous month and four dollars and thirty-five cents from June of last year. Class three price fell 94 cents to fifteen dollars and ninety-eight cents per hundredweight. It was also two dollars and eighty-four cents a hundredweight less than the price announced last year. Prices collapsed $1.36 per hundredweight to $20.96 per hundredweight in June, but remained $2.66 per hundredweight more than the same month in 2025. All prices for components uh dipped slightly from May to June. Value of butter fat was a dollar sixty-nine a pound, which is down a cent from the previous month, and the smallest price decline of the components. Price of protein in June settled at $2.46 a pound, down from May's $275 a pound, and the fat price of non-fat solids shrunk to $1.68 a pound, which is $14 slower than May. Switching over to cattle markets and a story from Michelle Rook on drovers, live and feeder cattle futures were lower again on Friday, which makes a record fifteen days down in the August live cattle contract and a twenty dollar correction. Scott Verilik from Kuma Kuma Verelic says everybody's looking for the bottom and wants to know if it's close. He says it's been brutal and it's not acting like it's bottoming. He says on Friday you'd think that from the oversold market we'd see some profit taking, but the attitude is not there, and we're not feeling like we've got a bottom yet. The industry knew this market would break at some point from the record highs, but no one knew when. The selling has escalated on the way down. Verilec is hoping the uptrends hold at this point. He says the main trend line we're watching now is the long-term one at about two hundred and seventeen to two hundred and eighteen dollars. He says on that front month we're still at two hundred twenty-six, so it has some room there yet, but not much. Feeder cattle are also getting within ten to fifteen dollars of the long-term trend line support that has held for six years. Finishing up in commodity markets and sticking with Michelle Rook and her report on AgWeb, wheat futures ended higher again on Friday and put in higher weekly closes. Sean Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisor says the wheat market has been adding in geopolitical or war premium with concerns about the escalation of fighting in the Black Sea region and what the wheat export disruptions arising from it. He says the amount of premium the market needs to add depends on how long the conflict lasts and disrupts shipping. Corn futures closed higher Friday and for the week, and Hackett says corn has been primarily getting help from the rally in the wheat market. He thinks that it's playing a bigger role than weather. He said there's some very, very bad weather going on in Europe and the core corn areas, especially in France, as they're trying to pollinate the corn crop. Crop conditions for corn over there have plummeted, but Hackett says there's a limit to a limit to how much that can drive the corn market higher. That's because he thinks the U.S. could still be looking at an above trend line corn crop that will be primarily made by the end of the month. He says he thinks the U.S. crop will outweigh those factors, but he's not sure that's enough to drive the corn market higher without wheat helping corn along. Soybeans were also up for the week in the August and November contracts, closed above the $12 mark. The market has been pushed by strong demand and the surge in bean oil prices. USDA reported flash sales of soybeans totaling nearly 26 million bushels Friday morning, with 12.5 million from China, 9.4 million to Mexico, and 4 million to an unknown area, all new crop. Hackett says that it's helping keep the market on edge. Hackett says the monthly crush was very, very high. The bean oil market went back up, making those crush margins continue to be very good. Getting these repeated purchases to unknown destinations, which we know pretty much is China, is continuing to feed into the idea that this 300-ish million bushel carryout may be at risk of being reduced here in the future. Well, that's all for now. As always, thanks for tuning in. If you have it useful, please drop a like, comment, subscribe and share, and tell all your friends. Be sure to check out BlackBird Daily.com for the full stories behind these topics. And don't forget to sign up for the Blackboard Daily newsletter. I'll be back tomorrow with more business towards across Active Financial Markets. Until then, I like operate and goodbye for now.