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Plugged In: the energy news podcast
Amber alert for summer hydro output
While hydrological levels have been boosted by a wet – and snowy at high altitudes – May, the outlook for the summer remains uncertain and largely in the hands of the weather gods.
Eylert Ellefsen, also known as Mr Hydrology, talks us through the prospects for hydro generation from the Balkans, central Europe, Spain and the Alpine region in the coming months.
Host:
- Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel.
Guests:
- Gert Ove Mollestad, Journalist, Montel,
- Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ.
Hello and welcome to the Montel Weekly Podcast, bring You Energy Matters in an informal setting. Today we're looking at the issue of hydrology, which is an important part of the energy mix across Europe, not least in the Nordic region, where it forms a major part of how electricity is produced. It's a great honor to have Eylert Ellefsen with us today. Welcome, Eylert.
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:Hello. Thank you. Uh,
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:also known as Mr. Hydrology.
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:Uh, that's, uh, according to Hugo.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Hugo, your boss, um, Eylert, uh, has been covering this market for many years, and now he, he recently joined Energy Quantified who has office is just next door to us in Monte. Also joining me is Gert Ove Mollestad, who's our Nordic reporter. Welcome to you Gat. Hello.
Gert Ove Mollestad, Journalist, Montel:Thank you.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:If I can start off Alet and talk about the Nordic region. What's happening in terms of hydrology at the moment here? You know, reservoir levels, rainfall. Yeah. What's happened to the snow in the mountains, et cetera.
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:Yes. What has happened, we saw by, uh, first weeks of, uh, may a very strong, uh, inflow period due to, uh, mild weather. Mm-hmm. High temperatures, and now it's been more cold. So the inflow level have been, um. More moderate or quite low for the season. Mm-hmm. Uh, but, but snow levels are, we think do according to eq, uh, numbers and, uh, comparing to n the air, the snow, SR level
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:mm-hmm. About nv. That's the, that's the Nordic ministry or the um, yeah, yeah. The regulator. The regulator. The regulator, exactly. Yeah. So
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:there we have numbers around, uh, between 15 and 20 te hours deficit in snow. Mm-hmm. In Norway.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:In snow.
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:In snow. Mm-hmm. And snow and soil. Okay. So
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:the thehy, the hydro deposits in the snow. In the snow as well as the, the snow above it.
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:Yeah, because yes. And the, um, there are several, well levels are close to normal. Uh, after this, uh, strong inflow incident, uh, start of May. If we look to Sweden, we had the same, uh, inflow incident there. A very strong. First part of May. Uh, and then, um, the, I say our levels are close to normal at the moment, uh, but the snow level are still. A bit lower than normal, I think about five TT hours. Something. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. So I think overall we have something around 20 T hours deficit in the Nordic region.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Deficit compared to normal level.
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:Compared to normal level.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Mm-hmm. Okay.
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:And most of this are nearly everything is, uh, related to the snow and soil, uh, uh, content.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Is this also what you are hearing in the market at the moment,
Gert Ove Mollestad, Journalist, Montel:well, I think there are some reports that are, that are stating a bit more positive outlook that mm-hmm. There's. It's a bit more hydropower service in the system. Mm-hmm. So I've seen around a deficit around 10 T hours. Um, not, but there, it might depend that different analysts use different norms, so they refer to different historical backgrounds. Mm-hmm. So that might be a explanation why the figures varies quite a lot. Mm-hmm. Okay. Yeah. But, but there's def definitely a large deficit in the snow wars. And you can the per the figures from the. The regulatory states that the reservoir levels are about normal or a bit above normal
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:energy stored in snow, if you like, and, and, and then, and then the energy stored in reservoirs. There is some deficit compared to recent years. Yeah, definitely. So how, how does it compare to recent years then? Go?
Gert Ove Mollestad, Journalist, Montel:Well, we had a severe drought last year, which really pushed up prices during summer and that deficit, uh, kind of lagged around all, it lasted all through the year, even though it was a major inflow, uh, in last autumn. Mm-hmm. So, and so we have been on the negative side all through this winter, more or less.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Is that a view you share here?
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:Yes. Yes, of course. We, uh, see these numbers. Historically. Mm-hmm. And I think for last year, uh, quite interesting that, uh, we have very dry Q2 period. Mm-hmm. It started also dry Q3. Mm-hmm. But the, but the winter and the snow gas there was, uh, in, uh, last year was quite higher, I think. So it depends on the sort of situation for the summer now is very dependent on the precipitation. Mm-hmm. We are very, uh, sensitive for a dry period. Mm-hmm. If it happens again mm-hmm. Then we already have this deficit of let's say 1520 T towers. If you, if we compare all those sources, then I think this is represent an import situation for the Nordic, uh, system.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Okay. So. If there is no rain, which will boost or bring the deficit up to towards zero. Uh, then we're in for a period of high prices then for the rest of the year in the Nordic region. I mean that,
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:yes. And how, how strong this price will be. Depends also on the, uh, hydro situation across Europe. Mm-hmm. Uh, if there's also a dry period as we saw last summer in, in the CWE area. Mm. Prices, uh, German and French prices increases. Mm. And then, uh, we'll see more or less the same prices in the Nordic region.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:We'll come back to the European markets later, but if we stick in the Nordic region. And what's the, um, looking out the window? It seems quite dry at the moment, but there have been forecasts of much wetter weather. Certainly may, has been quite wet. Uh, what's your view here? I know you're not a meteorologist, but, uh, no, I have
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:not really followed the long term forecast lately. Mm-hmm. But if you look to prices, uh, how they have. Come out in May. Nordic and European prices or the general prices have been quite close to each other. Mm-hmm.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:At what kind of levels?
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:I think about 35. 35 euro? Yeah. This, this is the spot prices. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Spot prices. So, uh, and if we look to, uh. Oh, I say market, uh, prices. They, um, are still in favor of higher German prices. Mm-hmm. But this can easily be turned around or come close to each other.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Okay. Yeah. I get what you,
Gert Ove Mollestad, Journalist, Montel:yeah, we got a, a new four week forecast, uh, yesterday. Mm-hmm. And which stated that there might be a possibility for a blocking higher pressure system over the Nordic region. Mm-hmm. From 10th of June. Okay. So if we, if we are to enter a really dry period, then prices in the Nordic region would. Really go up. Mm-hmm. Of course, the, the, the short term forecast are quite wetter than normal. Mm-hmm. But they are only covering the next 10 days. Mm-hmm. So if we, if the long term signal of a shift to a dry pattern, that, that might be bullish for prices, obviously. Yeah. And, and should we have a repetition of the. Droughty soy last year, that would be really an upside potential, unlike many others. Exactly.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:So it'd be a nice for, for people living in Norway, maybe a dry hot summer, but uh, in terms of electricity prices, maybe not so, not so good.
Gert Ove Mollestad, Journalist, Montel:No. But for the trade, yeah, it, there's a. I think there's a saying among Norwegian power traders there that there's nothing better than two dry years in a row. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Yeah. So, yeah. Yeah.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:So this is made, this is, you know, potentially we are, we are going there and, and what's the market saying in terms of how high prices could go or, uh, what the impact could be. We, I mean, if I could start with you. Yeah. Well,
Gert Ove Mollestad, Journalist, Montel:the latest. Days, prices have come down a bit, so we are now, this is a forward, forward, prices forward. This is for, for, yeah. And so for Q3 and Q4, yeah. And the during contract are trading currently at 35 25. Mm-hmm. A bit down today and the Q3 contract. R 37, which is for Norwegian and for naughty prices, this is quite high for summer prices. They usually tend to be quite low due to the low demand. So, so, so they're clearing our priced in a bit.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:There's the premium there towards potentially a dry, uh, a dry, dry summer, or at least
Gert Ove Mollestad, Journalist, Montel:coming from a higher level due to the relatively poor hydro stocks, of course. Yeah, absolutely.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Is this how, how you view it as well?
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:Yeah, and I think, um, I don't think we should frighten so very strong prices, even in, in the Nordic region, even by a rather dry, uh, period. But I think, uh, if temperatures are getting really high with the reparation, then it can, I. Really spike also in the German market. Mm-hmm. But if the German market doesn't really spike, I don't think we have a kind of a roof there on the Nordic prices. Mm-hmm. They won't get so much higher than the German prices. So the, the German prices will cap the Nordic ones. I think we kept the Nordic prices and the German prices are then kept the, let's say, at the rather moderate level. We also see quite moderate level in the Nordic prices. So let's say maybe if we look to market prices of today, see prices of 38, 39, maybe. For what? For, for the Nordic market, if they equals or equals the, um, al prices as we see today. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. So they've got a bit of an upside there. Potentially. Uh, quite limited. But if then the al prices spikes mm-hmm. Then we can see something else.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Exactly. Then we're going, they're going in a different dimension potentially. Yeah. Well, I can hear from both of you is that, you know, it given a dry period then the Nordic region will be very reliant on imports, obviously. Yeah, exactly. Talk about that. Yeah. Moving on to the European situation and the central European situation. There's what, what's what's happening there, Alec? I mean, this is, these are also markets that are quite sensitive to hydrology and that has a big impact on the price formations, specifically in, in France, Switzerland, Austria, maybe. Yeah. Um, uh,
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:because there you have a combination of, let's say, precipitation and temperature. Mm-hmm. So let's say the bully situation, you have a low, a low precipitation, but the impact of high temperature means maybe more. Mm-hmm. Because what you see for France, for example, if the rivers, uh, are declining the levels, you don't have the cooling, uh. Possibility to nuclear plants. Mm-hmm. And have then the, the price effect on this. Mm-hmm. So there's not only, let's say pure hydropower impact or low inflows and high temperatures,
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:but also impact on the thermal output. Thermal output at add both. Coal plants and nuclear in France. And we also
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:seen that on the coal import along the Rhine, for example. Mm-hmm. I think this was really severe last year. I think the Rhine level are not that low today and not, so I have all these details today, but what is, um, if you look to, uh, France for example, and the snow situation there at the end of April was rather low mm-hmm. At the. 25, uh, percentile. Mm-hmm. So one or four years, uh, were lower. Mm-hmm. So, but then during May we have some strong precipitation periods. Mm-hmm. Particular first part of May. Across the Alps, in fact.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:And this came as rain or snow, uh,
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:snow because rather low temperature for some period.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Mm-hmm.
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:And, um, so I think also France has now improved. There are snow situation. Mm-hmm. So not so close from normal. Mm-hmm. But, uh, Switzerland, below normal or, or, uh, there, there are no. Let's say around Around normal. Around normal. Okay. Nearly reach normal. This is my interpretation. I have all the details, but uh, if you look to Switzerland mm-hmm. Which have had very strong precipitation during the winter. Mm-hmm. And also had a very strong precipitation period. The first part of May they have, uh. Some regions, they have 150 to 200 percentage of normal snow. Okay. So it's still possible to go skiing maybe in Switzerland. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's that's true. That's true. Yeah. But I think you have to go above 2,500 meters. Okay. Yeah. Uh, so I think Switzerland, you know, have a, a warm period. Then the infos can be quite strong. Mm-hmm. So you can have a quite a certain impact of increased hydro power,
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:which would then impact the spot prices. Yeah. Then you have a in the spot prices. That would be my next question. What would be the impact on these higher snow levels in both France and Switzerland on prices? In these markets or in neighboring markets, even in, in the coming weeks and months.
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:Of course, this is, uh, a bearish uh, information. Mm. And this also, um, means that, uh, if you get a dry period, you still have some decent, quite decent snow levels. Mm. So you will have inflows and melting water from these areas, which means that it takes a while before you. If you get, uh, low river levels in France, for example. Mm. You won't get that in June. Maybe you have to wait until July. Mm. If, if you get the dry period now,
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:okay, it'll take a while. It'll take a while to hit. But these markets are also, so there is a run of river production, uh, in these, in these countries, but there's also reservoirs. How, how do these two interact in the French and Swiss markets?
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:And this is much more, let's say, um, the river here is much higher in France. Mm-hmm. In Switzerland, you have, uh, this is the country with the, in Europe. Mm. So you have a, I would say Austria with the Danube. Mm. You have one river, very river in France, and you also, France is. Quite, uh, one river and Germany. Germany, okay. It's only one river less. Okay. Yeah. So yeah. But it doesn't mean so much. Yeah. So I think it's the impact from the other countries. Mm-hmm. France, Switzerland, and Austria.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:So this could have a bearish influence on spot prices in these markets. In June, you would say if
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:you, in the first, uh, let's say impact, if you get them a warm period, you have strong melting. Mm-hmm. And then you have a various impact. Yeah. But later on, okay. Everything can happen. Yeah. But I think, uh. You won't have a bullish impact from hydropower, uh, from Europe, uh, before, uh, potentially end of June. Mm-hmm. I think it'll take away. So it
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:could good to be July and August when it could start to hit a bit more. Yeah, I think so. How does that compare to recent years in these markets? I mean, often. You know, it seems to be a recurring problem, certainly in France and a little bit in Germany, that you have low river levels and also, uh, high temperatures in these rivers.
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:Yeah, I think it's, uh, can happen in, uh, July where because every come into August, you also have the vacation period in France, don't have that strong consumption. Mm. So if you can reach high temperature already in July, let's say in July, and low river level. There you have price spikes in July. Mm-hmm. Which will, will be not so, uh, let's say apparent in, in, in August. Mm-hmm. I,
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:I mean, have you done any, uh, looked at any of the current river levels like the Run or the Rhine or even the, uh, ULA in, in, in po I mean, these, these were historically have been quite low in recent years. I mean, down to 40, 50 centimeters.
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:Yeah. And, uh, I think, um, it's the R and the Rhine. Uh, which are the most interesting, which I see is more sensitive for mm-hmm. Let's say, because you have the impact of coal transport along the Rhine. Mm-hmm. Uh, and in the rain and, uh, neighboring rivers in France, you have cooling water from to nuclear plants, which is an additional impact from. No hydropower.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:And I know that you guys at EQ are looking at this data quite closely. Yeah. And potentially going, going public with some of it. Soon
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:you will have this information from EDF, for example. Yeah. Okay. And from the, uh, German ministry of, uh, hydrology or methodology.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:The, the information on river levels and temperatures is quite public. It's quite easily accessible in Germany. In France, less so, certainly for temperatures. I, I think EDF is very good at publishing when there are problems, but, uh, they don't given for indication of what the actual river temperatures are or levels, what's going on in Spain, for example, that's a neighboring market to France and that's had maybe a bit of a boost in, uh, this year.
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:Yeah. But in general, I would say hydropower in Spain, summertime is very low because of strong evaporation. The precipitation profiles, you don't get that much precipitation in Spain, uh, in the Q2 Q3. So, uh, I think the strong variations in hydropower in, in Spain, you see that QQ four and Q1. Okay. But, uh, because that's so that the info levels are so low. During summertime, of course. Yeah. That if you run the calculations of this. You very easily come to negative inflows that's so low. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. So I think with the, you have this storage capacity, so, uh, I don't think, uh, it's more in France, in Spain, if it gets very dry and hot. It's more water supply and hydropower problems. Yeah. That's what they're looking for. That and for also for, for, for
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:irrigation and for agriculture that, that comes first rather than the, uh, than the hydro production. Absolutely. We haven't touched on another country, which is very, you know, very, where hydro hydrology is very important, and that's Austria. Um, have you had a look at Austria at all? Because that's important also for the, for the more the southern parts of Europe and the, and the, and the Vulcan region.
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:It's, uh, it's the Danube level. Mm-hmm. Honestly, I have these details of Danube, but then Austria are in a way divided between, uh, the Alpine system mm-hmm. And the, the Danube and system. Mm. So for me, it looks like, uh, you can have a rather normal outlooks currently for mm-hmm. But, uh, it's very important also for the, I say the, the Balkan system. What, what's happened with the Danube and, uh, but they don't see any, let's say, um, strong variations from normal mm-hmm. Uh, in, in the outlooks at the moment. And I think, uh, you can, for example, you have these schematic variations. You can have very strong, very high temperature and dry period, uh, south, uh, north of the Alps. Mm. Which you don't see in the Balkan region because there's a, another climatic zone. So you can act quite different situations, uh, north and south of the Alps. So if you have a very warm period south of the Alps also you have this, uh, normally, uh, in, in the Balkan region. Mm. So I think north and south of the Alps, uh, you can see quite different development.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Mm-hmm. What should the market be focusing on now in terms of hydrology, both in the Nordic region? And, and, you know, in more central Western Europe, what are the, the key elements that, uh, obviously weather forecast and the signs of pre and, and the forecast of precipitation. A little bit of a tricky word there, a little bit of a tongue twister. Uh, but what, what do you think here, what, what are the key elements that we should be looking out for?
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:Uh, I think for the Nordic region, it's a, it is a precipitation. Mm-hmm. And I think for June, I think temperature across Europe will be very interesting. Mm-hmm. If you have high temperature, you have, uh. Faster, uh, melting, uh, process. Mm-hmm. And then, uh, July, uh, everything can happen then in July. Yeah. I think that's, uh, uh, precipitation in Nordic and uh, maybe temperature in the outreach in mm-hmm. For the next month.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Not the other way around.
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:No. I think because you have the upside in prices. Okay. Yeah, of course. When you have high temperature in the Alps, more melting, you'd won't, let's say, give a bullish, um. Impact on spot prices. Mm. But that can come later. And in the Balkan region, um, always very sensitive for both a dry and a wet period. Mm. Uh, if you have, uh, strong variations from normal Mm, prices will really follow. Mm. The hydropower situation. And I think what I focused on when I focus on prices in the backend region, focus on the price difference also through a Hungary. Mm-hmm. If you have strong hydropower, Hungarian prices are low. That means the Balkan prices are low level price differences to Austria will increase. And if you have, uh, limited, uh, hydropower across the Balkan, you have a stronger Hungarian prices. And, uh, and then, uh, more limited the price difference to Austria
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:and gta. Do you agree with this view of what to look for in, in the Nordic region? I mean, are there any other. Elements that you think we should be aware of, or
Gert Ove Mollestad, Journalist, Montel:it, it's of course mainly by the weather driven, especially in Norway and partly in Sweden as well. Mm-hmm. And, but then you had, um, you have had this massive build of wind power mm-hmm. Which kind of reduces the dependency of hydropower in the Nordic. So, so, so even though we might have a deficit of. 10 or perhaps 20 tet hours. The, the situation is not that strained due to the high amount of wind power. So, so the system. It would a couple of years ago would be much more severe. Mm. With, uh, a deficit of 20 T hours than it is today due to the, to the high wind power in feed. But then again, this is also weather driven of course. So if you have a really nice weather, hot, warm, dry, yeah, no wind, snow, wind,
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:then you
Gert Ove Mollestad, Journalist, Montel:have a kind of this accumulating effect. So, absolutely. Yeah.
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:Is this something you've modeled, a, the impact of wind on the hydro and how the two
Eylert Ellefsen, senior analyst, EQ:interact? Is that all? Of course. Uh, I would say the equ of the hydropower, uh, level were, let's say earlier we had at the hydropower balance or, uh, hydrological balance, like zero. Then the system, the Nordic system was in balance. Now we can say minus 10 or maybe minus 15 because you have more, uh, wind power. But it also depends on, of course, the nucleic capacity. So it's not only increased wind power if, uh, so I haven't really calculated how this. Mm. A level point of hydrological balance has moved mm-hmm. From, let's say zero, is it now minus 10. Mm-hmm. With the same, let's say, balance as we had at zero in 2005, for example. Mm. And that could be, um, interesting to make a study,
Gert Ove Mollestad, Journalist, Montel:but I haven't really made that. And we have seen now that, uh, some Swedish and Finnish rectors has. They have come back, uh, on schedule after maintenance period. So the, uh, nuclear, um, production is quite strong in the Nordic region. So that is kind of a factor that is not bullish. It is clearly there's some concern of the low snow resource because I, I talked to a CEO of a. Quite large Norwegian high utility last week, and I asked him if he was happy with the situation with a relat seasonably high prices, and he said, yes, of course it's high prices, but when you don't have that much water to produce, what good do they do? Mm-hmm. Exactly. High prices. So, so it's, um. Yeah, the situation, it is a bit mixed, you could say. Yeah. Perhaps
Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief Europe, Montel:strained and, uh, a bit mixed. Yeah. And I think, uh, yeah, it's the same situation I think you're seeing in France and in Germany where, you know, nuclear availability looks good at this point, but, uh, as you say, e alert, uh, should, should we have lower water levels and, and high temperatures in July, that, that situation could change quite quickly. Mm-hmm. So thank you very much for taking us on a tour of hydrology from the Balkans up to Sweden and down to. Spain very, very informative. Excellent. And gat, thank you very much for your input. So please, uh, remember to follow us on Twitter, on LinkedIn, and you get all the latest news on hydrology, uh, on Montel News and also on eq. Thank you very much. Goodbye.
