End of year round-up, outlook (Part one)

In the next two episodes we discuss the key energy issues in the year to date with Montel journalists, while also looking forward to 2024. Despite markets having come a long way since the crisis of 2022, they remain jittery and volatile. Part one will focus on Spain, Italy and France, while part two discusses Germany, the Nordic region and global fuel markets.

Host: Richard Sverrisson
Guests (Part one): Enza Tedesco, Editor Italy; Pablo Bronte, Editor Spain; Chris Eales, Editor France; Muriel Boselli, Correspondent France

Transcript

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 0:05

Hello listeners and welcome to The Montel Weekly Podcast, bring You Energy Matters in an informal setting. In the final two episodes of the year, we take a look at the key events of the past 12 months and then a look forward to the expectations for 2024 in the pod. Before Christmas, we'll discuss Italy, Spain, and France, while in the last episode of the year. We turn our attention to Germany and the Nordic region, as well as discussing global fuel markets. I hope you enjoy the insights and the summaries from our journalists. Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. I'm Richard Sverrisson, and joining me several journalists from around Europe, and we will start off with Pablo Bronte, who's editor Spain, A warm welcome to you, Pablo.

Pablo Bronte, Editor Spain: 0:52

Thank you Richard.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 0:53

And Enza Tedesco, who's editor Italy. A warm welcome to you too. Enza.

Enza Tedesco, Editor Italy: 0:57

Hi, Richard.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 0:59

Now I thought we could start off about talking about the main issues of 2023, Pablo, and let's focus on Spain to start off with, what was it all about? The the Spanish exemption.

Pablo Bronte, Editor Spain: 1:10

Yeah. Market intervention has been the buzz word for the last few years here in Spain, and the Iberian exception was part of it. It was approved in 2022 and during 2023, it gradually fade mainly because gas prices have are basically lower than what we saw in 2023, so sorry in 2022. The Iberian exception it's a market intervention that it's not actually applied today because gas prices have already normalized and even if the Spanish government is trying to push to get an extension of the measure. It's very unlikely to be enforced or applied because gas prices are not really expected to go up very soon, or as up as it would be required to trigger the application. So it's probably going to be under discussion in coming months as well. But it's, it hasn't. Really being applied in 2023.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 2:17

And what, was there anything, of the course of the last 12 months that took you by surprise, that made you think, Hey what's what's going on here?

Pablo Bronte, Editor Spain: 2:24

Yes. What we saw during Q2 this spring in Spain, we saw a massive green production and we started to see many zero prices hours, and we started to see a big volume of green output curtailments from wind and solar plants because basically we didn't have enough demand. To take in that that much capacity or that much green volume of production. Yes, it's starting to be a problem. Some green producers are facing a 10, 15% output curtailments, depending on the zone of the country where they are. So it's a big problem, which is getting bigger and bigger. It started to be very big this year. It's probably going to worsen next year. And yes, this should start to trigger some some decisions in terms of batteries, green hydrogen, because those are the main things that could prevent prices to go down to zero euro. It should start to to happen next year to see something to offset these green output.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 3:44

Absolutely. So we're talking mainly about wholesale prices here, of course, or only about wholesale prices, of course, Pablo. But so in, in a sense, there's just an oversaturation. There's too much energy renewable energy coming into system, and there's no one who can take it. So that's, as you said, this is a, should be a very good incentive for. For batteries, for green hydrogen and ways of storing that.

Pablo Bronte, Editor Spain: 4:04

Exactly. This is a problem that is going to increase in coming years. And we got six gigabytes of near green capacity last year. This year we are probably getting another six gigawatts of new wind and solar capacity. And this is not going to stop anytime soon. Next year, we are facing similar numbers or even more. So yes, the trend is unstoppable and we're going to see more and more. Zero prices.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 4:32

Absolutely. I think, even though it's not base load production, of course renewable, but six gigawatts, is the equivalent one could say of six nuclear plants in a way, in terms of install capacity anyway. But Enza, what about Italy? So what was happening on the other side of the Mediterranean?

Enza Tedesco, Editor Italy: 4:46

Well in Italy, a lot has happened in the energy world. I would summarize it or at least highlight it highlight three main areas, which is gas renewables and nuclear. So in gas no big surprises there in the sense that Italy is known to be probably the most gas reliant of Europe's largest economy in terms of power generation. It's half of it depends on gas. And so the government as expected, because the new administration which took office late last year of Georgia Maloney had always said that they were gonna invest in in gas. And they have actually, the Russian war in Ukraine highlighted the need to speed up renewables. And they did that in Italy. But the the objective was also to be less dependent on Russian Russian faucet fuels. They did that from Russia, but they definitely haven't moved away from gas at all. They have invested in getting more volumes. They have invested in in new infrastructure. So there, basically, there's been basically a switch in the rankings of gas suppliers to Italy. So Algeria, which was the second gas supplier to Italy, the second largest has become the first there's been increases in gas flows from Norway and the Netherlands also from Azerbaijan and with the new gas infrastructure on the LNG terminals. Then we've seen also, a lot of volumes coming into, LNG volumes into Italy and is in fact the, also the share of LNG imports have has increased from a 20% to almost 30% right now. That's, gas is continues to be a love story for Italy for sure, and it's not it doesn't look like it's gonna end anytime soon. Or at least not soon enough for the energy transition on the renewable side. I have to say that there's been a huge improvement in the rollout of new capacity because up until 10 years ago, probably the yearly addition of new renewables capacity was about one gig per year. So it was very low. Last year was the first time we saw a bit of a jump. It was three giga. And this year so far up until October there were 4.5 gigawatts of new renewables capacity and looks like it could end between five and six. So in relative terms, obviously that's a great progress. If you look at absolute term and why we need to get to the 2030 targets, we're still behind. So we're still short a bit. And the great headway that we've seen in renewables obviously has to do with EU policies. They have, they have approved some emergency measures that actually this week have been extended until June, 2025. So there's a streamlining in the permitting process which is very important. And and then what, talking about surprises for this year, I've seen a lot like a big push for batteries in Italy and Italy is not always. On the driving driver's seat in a lot of things in the energy matters, but I think with batteries they're peeling the way to, to really deploy a huge amount of this technology. And I was hearing Pablo with all the problems in its pain about the curtailments and stuff, and obviously batteries will be essential. To avoid that kind of problems because you would, charge battery and have all the flexibility and more stability in the grid with that. And in Italy they're creating very good business opportunities because since July batteries have been allowed to participate in the ancillary services market. I don't think that's usually the case in many of the European countries. Then they can also participate in the capacity market, which also, again, not all the countries have that. And there's gonna be we don't have a lot of details yet, but term the TSO in Italy is going to launch specific and dedicated auctions for battery. Next year, we don't have, again, the details, but that's probably going to cover the capital and operational costs of the battery, which is. One of the main problems now for the, a larger rollout of that technology. And I just realized this week that also the interruptible contracts the new revision that was just done a few days ago also allows batteries to participate in those. So there are a lot of. The opportunities for revenue stacking, which is key for the deployment of this the technology.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 9:50

It's all about the flexibility here, isn't it? And the batteries do provide that you need to go long on flexibility. So where Pablo what do you expect? You, there's, you ends, you've heard Enza talking about what's happening in Italy and there has been progress made in in, in batteries in the battery sector there. What do you expect next year in Spain? Do you think this could be speeded up, that potentially you could have the same kind of development as you're seeing in Italy already?

Pablo Bronte, Editor Spain: 10:16

Yes, we are very likely to see some advance, some progress there. There's new regulation coming next year specifically for batteries, and we will see that's enough to build. A business case for batteries, but this is something that has been very much anticipated from the whole industry and it's going to be key to see if batteries are really feasible as a solution here in Spain. Moreover, we are going to have a new capacity mechanism in place probably next year as well. So this is going to help not only CCTs and gas fired plants they have been struggling for a while, so Spain definitely needs. Those ccgt as a backup. But the,

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 11:14

so there'll be the combined cycle gas turbines for those who aren't familiar with that abbreviation. Absolutely. Yeah. To provide that base load. Yes. If you want Pablo.

Pablo Bronte, Editor Spain: 11:21

Yeah, exactly. Yes. The gas fired plants are are basically the gas fire plants are necessary for the gas for the whole country to, to keep the lights on. But the capacity mechanism is not only going to help gas fired plants, it's also going to help batteries. The new mechanism is supposed to be technology neutral, meaning that batteries are also likely to find some revenues from those capacity markets. It's going to be a very interesting year here in Spain to see if the batteries are finally getting to the market.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 12:04

What are the worries? Why could it not be feasible, Pablo? Why couldn't it? What makes is there something about the characteristics of the Spanish market that makes it more unviable than maybe in others?

Pablo Bronte, Editor Spain: 12:15

It's all about the money as every

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 12:17

Of course. Yeah, for sure. Yeah. Yes.

Pablo Bronte, Editor Spain: 12:19

Right now there is no business case for batteries because the investment required is too high. The revenues that they could get from estimated prices for coming years are not so high. Prices are very likely to go down if gas prices go down. So yes, with low power prices there is of course a business case for batteries to, to take in those to take power. When prices are low and then producing or delivering power when prices are a bit up. But there's a big question mark on how the market is going to evolve in the coming years with so much capacity, green capacity coming online. So there is no clarity yet for investors to take those big investment decisions. There has been no correct regulation in place until now, and it's basically a matter of getting enough money and market conditions are not enough to get enough money for, to take an investment decision about batterie.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 13:31

What's happening on the demand side, Pablo? Is there any moves to involve the demand side more in these kind of decisions? If you are saturated with renewable capacity, amateur curtail, could you maybe also incentivize large industry to reduce or is that the time you want them to to consume as much as possible?

Pablo Bronte, Editor Spain: 13:49

Yes. We have some mechanisms around demand flexibility in place here in Spain. The problem is that the crisis, the energy price crisis that we saw in 2022 has pushed companies to make some big cuts in energy demand. Some processes have been stopped and also some efficiencies have been deployed. But the biggest change has been rooftop solar. Big companies now are investing a lot of money into roofed solar, which is reducing the overall demand, which is reducing the business case for batteries. So that's it's a very complex game where many drivers are in place. And yes flexibility of demand will play a bigger role in the coming years. But then again. Some of the demand that was eroded during the crisis will never come back, of course. And yes, due to efficiencies, due to industries shutting down, but also due to to rooftop solar. So that's another big issue here.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 15:03

Excellent. So Enza, if I can turn to you and what do you think will be the big stories of 2024?

Enza Tedesco, Editor Italy: 15:10

Like I said, gas is not going away for Italy, so we are going to see a little bit of the same. I think it's a continuation of these huge investments also because we need to clarify something besides the need of Italy to diversify supply and move away from Russian gas. Italy has also this grandiose plan of becoming the natural gas hub for the continent under the piano mate that has been dumped by Georgia Maloney. They want to basically become the Su, a supplier for the rest of Europe. The problem is I've spoken to several analysts, and the problem is that Italy, right now at least is not, it doesn't have adequate infrastructure to move huge quantities of gas from south to north, which is where most of the gas Italy is getting comes from Nigeria. Libya or even Azerbaijan. So there's a big bottleneck in the center of Italy for the gas pipeline because traditionally we always had the gas flow or at least the largest gas flow coming from the north to the south. Right now we have inverted the flows. That's creating a bottleneck problem. The TSOs NAM is has planned an expansion of those pipelines there, but it's gonna take some time. And then you have obviously to guarantee a certain amount of volumes. For domestic consumption and then the extra you'll be able to export, if anything, we've seen a little bit of sample of that. In August, September, we've seen Italy re-export to Austrian, Slovenia. Some of it's gas but again, it's not sustainable over time. So that's on one side. The other thing I see is happening next year, obviously, it's another push for renewables. Again, like I said, we just saw that the EU ministers have approved have extended the emergency measures to. Simplify, streamline, speed up the authorization process for renewables, and that's definitely going to help to continue to add new green capacity. Although, I have to say the renewables developers have been faced with a lot of challenges in Italy because a lot of taxes and increases in, cost of capital of course. And the land prices, there are a lot of things going on. But despite that, I do expect green capacity in Italy to continue to grow hopefully even more than this year. And we're definitely going to hear more about nuclear because Georgia Maloney's government is really keen on reviving. This technology. So probably we'll we'll see more on that. And especially on the small modular nuclear reactors, which is seems to be the more approachable technology and probably even. To deploy faster in in some way.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 18:22

Enza, Pablo, thank you very much. Obviously, we'll continue to monitor all the stories you put out on Montel News or the accident reporting that will continue to 2024. So thanks once again. We continue, I'll look at the main issues of 2023 and also with the outlook for 2024 in France. So joining me are Muriel Boselli, journalist France. Welcome to you Muriel.

Muriel Boselli, Correspondent France: 18:48

Thank you. Hello, Richard

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 18:49

and Chris Eales, editor France. Hello, Christopher.

Chris Eales, Editor France: 18:52

Bonjour!

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 18:53

What in your view, were the main issues in this year so far?

Muriel Boselli, Correspondent France: 18:57

Richard, I think what was the most shocking was. This winter stress that we had over power supply disaster was literally averted this winter. All indicators were pointing to a major shortfall in power supply. Many of edfs 56 reactors were shut down due to stress, corrosion, a phenomenon which caused. Nuclear production to filter its lowest level in 2022 since records began.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 19:26

But just be clear, this was in the first quarter of this year, right? There's not, it's not, it's

Muriel Boselli, Correspondent France: 19:29

this. We're talking about the winter.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 19:31

Yeah.

Muriel Boselli, Correspondent France: 19:31

So we had incredibly low production in 2022, which progressively recovered in 2023, but the winter was very stressed. There was in. Amazing amount of publicity calling on French people to reduce consumption. We were expecting power cuts for the first time. And it didn't happen. It didn't happen because we had a mild winter because French people were. Very obedient. They reduced their consumption. People were fearful. So yes, we came close, but we didn't crash.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 20:06

Yeah. And the lights didn't go out. But where are we now, Chris? Is the situation much improved?

Chris Eales, Editor France: 20:11

It's a completely different situation going into this winter. I think it's something like six gigawatts more nuclear availability than we had at the same time last year. There are no fears of power cuts. This winter demand is still very low because structurally demand has been has been hit. So it's a very different picture. However last it is worth saying that last winter, France only kept the lights on because it imported power from its neighbors, and prices were very high. It wouldn't be anything like that This year,

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 20:40

and France's returned to being an exporter,

Chris Eales, Editor France: 20:42

France's returned to being an exporter. Its historical role. What was fascinating about. The corrosion was that it turned France into a net power importer almost entirely for the first time ever. Right across the year almost. That was, that's a new, it was a real, it showed the weakness of nuclear, in fact, and. The problem of having all your eggs in one basket, if you like, nuclear accounts for an enormous amount of 70% or something of Francis Power mix.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 21:08

Muriel, what were the other issues? Obviously maybe it was luck. In a sense it was because the winter was very mild. Had the winter really hit hard, it would've been a different situation completely. But what were the other issues?

Muriel Boselli, Correspondent France: 21:20

I think this crisis, became the basis for France to prove to the public that something was needed in terms of building more RS and going forward with new Nuclear built that they used it as a kind of com communication tool. The French government introduced legislation earlier this year. To speed up both construction of nuclear reactors and renewable energy. Just switching to renewable energy it's important to note that France has failed a European target to reach 23% of renewable energy in its final energy consumption by 2020. We still haven't reached that. We're at about 19%. There's been a lot of resistance. Among the public and local politicians, and there's a huge lobby which is partly nuclear that fights systematically against ENR projects. So the French government is trying to push in both directions at once, nuclear and renewable energy. As I said, the crisis, it was a basis for them to move forward or that.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 22:26

So this has driven forward the new build agenda here. But at the same time it's also driving forward, renewables build as in offshore offshore wind, potentially onshore wind and solar as well. Or is that kind of stopping?

Muriel Boselli, Correspondent France: 22:39

No it's, they are focusing on solar and offshore wind power. They've understood that onshore wind power will, the progress will be limited because there's, actions, legal actions against every single project. So that's complicated. And this. So far you can go with that. They are moving forward with offshore wind power. They're aiming for a massive 10 gigawatt. Tender from 2025 until 2027. And they're also planning differently before France used to organize tenders and then people would complain and oppose the results. Now they're trying to reverse the method by planning with local electors where. Where farms should be built and going ahead. Once there's an agreement, France is trying to improve its methodology to implement wind farms.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 23:39

But the, we also saw this year, Chris, and we the spat between Germany and France. About nuclear and the CFDs for nuclear, is that, has that kind of been resolved? Is that kind of have we moved forward beyond that?

Chris Eales, Editor France: 23:51

There, there was an agreement, there has been an agreement at the European level on market reform, in a sense they have been able to, at least they are able to work together. However, there is a major rift between France and Germany that still exists on a fundamental level with one country opposed to nuclear and the other very much in favor of it. And that does raise questions going forward. How will this be resolved? What does it mean for edfs extremely ambitious plans to build nuclear reactors all over Europe? We had the CEO of EDF, Luke re saying he wanted to build a new reactor every year for between now and 2050. If you have such a rift at the heart of. That causes problems but clearly a rift between France, Germany, it hasn't healed. And so it's a fundamental disagreement.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 24:39

You could paper over the cracks as well. Muriel what's your view here?

Muriel Boselli, Correspondent France: 24:42

I think the fact that France scrapped the CFD, the option for CFDs, which at one at the European level could ize France's ability to maneuver within Europe in the next few months or years when it went, when it'll need to.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 25:00

But Chris, do you have something to add? Chris Eales, Editor France: about the reform of. French power market, the way that nuclear is going to be, the sale of EDFS nuclear power, how that's going to be regulated. And France came up with this ag this agreement between the state and EDF of how they're going to do that. And this is this nuclear tax on on, on wholesale market sales. So basically they've got rid of regulation, they're now just gonna tax it's a market device, essentially they've turned to the market. Ironically, actually that is where the, and France went into this discussion pushing for C-A-C-F-D, which would've given them some kind of safety net if you like, because A CFD has a floor price as well as a ceiling price, whereas the new French mechanism only has a, will only have a ceiling price. It's possible. And we have reported this actually, that this reform it may not stay as it is. It might start out as a tax, but if pri, if power prices fall when some people think they will that then France may well. Want to change this regulation again and maybe introduce something more along the lines of the CFD. No, it's interesting. I think, that was obviously a big part of the discussion this year. But if we then move into 2024 what can we expect there? Muriel?

Muriel Boselli, Correspondent France: 26:15

So on the table there will be. Obviously nuclear regulation needs to be voted. It's still not acted, so it should come into practice from the first of January 20, 20, 26 and replaced rn. Our old system under which EDF was selling a hundred terror towers to its rivals for 42 Euros. Suppliers could be on the duress from that system and smaller. Suppliers could not have the financial ability to, to cope with a new system. The rn, the old RN system was, providing them with cheap nuclear. And it was an easy way of operating. So now it's that's gonna be an issue when the nuclear regulation comes into force. I think next year we'll also see there'll be a lot of noise around the startup. This is the showcase for France. It's EPR showcase. So if it's not in, in time, if the calendar is not respected, it's 12 year. Just a reminder, it's 12 year late it's gone from it's gone from 3 billion. To 20 billion in cost. So this is absolutely massive. So there is a political urge for France to start up with its flammable project this year. If it doesn't, it could threaten. The other project and it's, and the possibility for EDF to sell other projects elsewhere in Europe.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 27:47

And I think, a April next year we'll mark the Twenty year anniversary of the announcement of the Alito launch in Finland. And that's only just came online this year. So that that's quite astonishing in it sounds in sense of, in the sense of the timeframe involved there. But you, it still needs to be approved at EU level, doesn't it? The replacement to Aaron?

Chris Eales, Editor France: 28:07

We reported this year that as it stands, this tax, because it doesn't, there isn't a flaw which could be viewed as state aid. There, there are some lawyers who've said this will actually ease. Okay. Easiest way through the sea, but it's not, that has to be that. I understand that it still has to be approved, but we're talking about 2026. By the way, though, on the Flamanville U there are challenges, there are challenges, fa there are technical challenges. They have to replace the lid 12 months after it starts up. There are questions about corroded fuel rods that need to be addressed, which is keeping, earlier this year kept the EPR in Chen offline there are similar potentially similar issues, or at least they have to be monitored. So there are challenges.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 28:51

What's the due start date at the moment?

Chris Eales, Editor France: 28:53

It's the middle of the year when they will start the reactor.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 28:57

So mid 24,

Chris Eales, Editor France: 28:58

that was what they're saying, the latest. And that it would then come, it would then gradually gradually climb up to full capacity. By the end of the year, which seems to be quite ambitious given that earlier messages from the French regulator. Was, it wouldn't reach full capacity until 2028. So it's something that we're looking at actually.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 29:20

Okay. That seems to be yeah, quite an extended startup time schedule there. And so what else can we expect to see on, on, on happening next year?

Muriel Boselli, Correspondent France: 29:29

The French government is planning to merge its nuclear safety authority, a SN with, its with its technical arm, IRSN. So this move. Is presented by the government to improve efficiency and speed up process. In, in the decisions surrounding nuclear, there's gonna be a lot of decisions to be made on the nuclear safety aspect. There's gonna be the EPR design to, to approve. There's. The is the, it's the upgrade of French nuclear plants. There's the small modular reactors that, that technology, the technologies will have to be looked at very closely. This is a huge amount of work. The, so the French government wants to regroup. All of the nuclear knowhow on the safety level. But there's a huge amount of a position because the IRS sensor, the technical arm has always been independent and has released its own. Avi. That's when it's its opinion it's recommendations. So it's very transparent. The RSN at the moment says that this is what is needed in terms of safety, and then the a san, which is this, which decide. Decides on the basis of an opinion which is public. So the French government has always said that we had the most amazing safety system in the world. The praise that system. And it's been a, one of the reasons why, the public accepted so much nuclear in France, it's because of that system. So now they're putting it into question. And we'll see whether whether Pa the Parliament gives its green light for this merger. I think it could be difficult. We'll see, but it's gonna be absolutely key.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 31:23

Some would say centralizing those authorities will provide better safety or better safety systems.

Muriel Boselli, Correspondent France: 31:29

The critics say that this new system will be less critical on safety and the French industry will be able to move faster on, on rolling out decisions and nuclear decisions. Which for some is, is going to be, it's going to, is going to be a threat to safety.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 31:51

That's of course a a major concern. Absolutely. And I'm sure Parliament parliamentarians will view it quite similarly.'cause if I can just round off with you in terms of. The big issues on the table in 2024. What do you see as the key areas which you which we, us at Montel News will be following?

Chris Eales, Editor France: 32:10

All the things that that the mural has mentioned, of course, the change, the potential changes to the regulation is extremely important for edfs finances. We know that. Normally Aaron will last until 2026, but there's gonna be more discussion about that, much more discussion There are. There were a lot, there's enormous doubts about this plan to basically to be able to sell their nuclear output. An average of 70 euros is extremely ambitious, and there's going to be a lot of discussion about that, and we'll be following that very closely.'cause it means so much to EDF. They lost billions and billions of euros as a result of having to sell their nuclear power 40 euros. And they need this money to build these reactors. The push, the drive there's a nuclear renaissance. Apparently according to those proponents of nuclear power. So these, this is a, this is key, and aligned to that, as you said, the startup of Flamanville is also extremely important because, they haven't been able to do this. They have lost so much of the knowhow according to, eDF itself. Former CEOs saying they've lost the knack of a, they don't know how to build nuclear power plants anymore. It's only the Russians and the chap and the Chinese who might be able to do it. So there's good. We're going to see more and more of this drive. For nuclear, it's very clear that France has changed its position. Macron has u-turned and the, what we didn't mention is that it has this year the nuclear cut the the I Holland's idea, the socialist idea of cutting back on nuclear use has finally been thrown out the window. There is no cap on nuclear power. Outputs. At least it's public now. Yeah. Now it's clear. So these are, these are some of the key issues going forward. The other thing is that the emphasis is very much on nuclear. And so that is potentially to the detriment of renewables. And we've seen, Greenpeace report in early in December, in mid-December saying to France's Targets. To hit net zero through renewable use are just too low, far too low. And compared to neighbors, two or three times too low there's a great problem. France is under pressure to, to, it hasn't, wasn't even able to meet it as 2020. Target. It faces a 500 million sanction from the EU from failing to meet these targets. It doesn't want to pay that money and it doesn't want to buy. The rights to what do you call it, the by statistical renewables. It doesn't want to do that. So there's a real issue about whether France can do both, can boost nuclear, can boost renewables.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 34:41

And if you look at the neighbors, Spain, Italy. The Netherlands the, up to, upwards of six gigawatts of new green capacity coming online. And that's not happening in France, is it?

Chris Eales, Editor France: 34:52

No. That that, that isn't happening despite these very ambitious targets. And then, the other issue will be looking at, we'll be looking at will be also questions of competition in France. The rival suppliers VDF not very happy with this idea of, turning to the market to to regulate the sale of nuclear or to tax the sale of nuclear. There's talk of consolidation, more consolidation in the market. Companies going under rival suppliers, going under increasing the dominance of EDF. It's. As if we're going backwards in some way.

Snjólfur Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel: 35:22

There'll certainly be a lot to follow and it'll all be covered, I know by you two and your colleagues here in France. So thank you very much for joining the Montel weekly podcast.