Plugged In: the energy news podcast
Coming from the heart of the Montel newsroom, Editor-in-Chief, Snjolfur Richard Sverrisson and his team of journalists explore the news headlines in the energy sector, bringing you in depth analysis of the industry’s leading stories each week.
Richard speaks to experts, analysts, regulators, and senior business leaders to the examine not just the what, but the why behind the decisions directing the markets and shaping the global transition to a green economy.
New episodes are available every Friday.
Plugged In: the energy news podcast
Crazy carbon price volatility
The Montel energy podcast – market insights from people in the know. In this week’s episode, we take a close look at the EU’s flagship carbon market (EU ETS) and find out why traders may need “four pairs of sturdy underwear”.
Hosts:
- Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel
- Anna Siwecka, freelance journalist/podcaster
Guest:
- Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter.
Hello listeners and welcome to the Montel Weekly podcast, bringing you energy matters in an informal setting. I'm Richard Ferrison.
Anna Siwecka, freelance journalist/podcaster:And I'm Anka.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:And we're joined today, uh, by Alessandra Vitelli. Alessandro is an expert in all matters Carbon. He's been covering, uh, the car market since about 1879, haven't you? Alessandro? 10 82, I think. Let's, let's get cut right to the quick, I think, uh, Alessandro, EUA prices. Where are they now? Currently, just above 20 Euros. Okay. And what's, what are the main drivers for the, for these prices currently? Well,
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:as you know, we ended last year around about 25 euros, um, after having reached a 10 year high. Uh, in September. The market since then, however, has taken a more dim view of short term fundamentals. We have, uh, had cheaper LNG prices, which have forced gas prices in Europe down. That in turn, has made gas fired power more competitive. Mm-hmm. Consequently, there's less demand for carbon.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:Right.
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:So that's made a little bit of the rally that we saw last year. Come back a little bit.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:Isn't there a touch of irony about this, that as we are kind of getting towards more cleaner generation, more gas in carbon prices fall?
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:Yes. That's how it's meant to, that's how it's meant to work. The idea is that an emissions trading system should eventually be the, uh, the engine of its own downfall.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:Mm-hmm. Okay. Fair enough. You touched upon the prices. Last year, how would you summarize the movements last year? I mean, we went from, what was it, seven, eight euros up to 25. What, what, what were the main drivers here?
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:Speculation and, um, anticipation. I think the late 2017, the European Commission finally agreed its reform package for the EVTS, and that included the market stability reserve, which is going to take out volume from the surplus volume from the market. They increased the rate at which that. Withdrawal happens to 24% for the next five years, and that really was a trigger. For all sorts of people to get involved in the market, to buy in anticipation of higher prices. So a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy went on and prices were always going up, really irrespective of fundamentals. It was all about future scarcity. And now that we've come into the beginning of the MSR in 2019. The reality's slightly different. Mm-hmm. People were anticipating higher prices in general, but we've now worked out that the MSR isn't going to complete the job until 2023. So 2019 it's a little bit early to be, you know, going for those, those high prices.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:So it stopped at 25 and then came plunging down. But you are saying that a lot of people came into the market. Yeah. Could you say something about these kind of players? Sure. I mean, are they still in the market as well? Well,
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:let's give you an example. I mean, RWE early last year in 2018 said, we have financially covered our carbon requirements until 2022, I think it was. So that meant they were more or less covered for all their purchasing requirements for the next five years, four years. So. When they do that, they're driving the market up. When a hedge fund gets involved, because someone has said this market's going one way. They buy, they drive the price up. Now a lot of the activity was in the options market because it's a cheaper way to get involved. Mm-hmm. So you had a lot of, um, investors, private investors, hedge funds, whatever, buying any options market, and that drives the underlying price higher.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:And some people obviously made, made a killing. Some people made a lot of money. Yes. Some analysts talk the market up as well, isn't it? Wasn't that kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy or, I mean, there were claims of 40 euro. A
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:hundred euro. I think the analysts are looking at it in the same rational way that market actors are looking at it, saying, look, supply is going to be cut significantly. Therefore scarcity is going to apply, and prices are gonna have to go up. I mean, that's the fundamental basic assumption that people made Looking at the results of the reform package then. Putting that into action is a different question entirely. Uh, and estimating where prices will reach after a number of years is, again, you're looking at a moving target because there's all sorts of moving elements, diff different parts to this whole equation. The cost of the cost of electricity, the, the cost of fuels, et cetera, et cetera, all of that works to impact the price of carbon as well.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:The MSR, is that a factor that's, that's off the table now?
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:Well, no, the MSR is a reality. It's, it's, it's now happening. The, the, the volume of EUAs that's being sold every day in the European Union in the market has been cut in half, more or less. So you're selling two and a half million tons a day instead of five. So that over time is going to really begin to impact the market, but you can't expect it to impact the market two months in. Because we're talking about a 1.6 billion tons surplus that has to be taken outta circulation. That's going to take five years.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:Yeah. I mean that's, that's a partly I think, Anna, for me, which was very surprising, that despite this massive surplus, um, a glut of allowances, if you like, we still, um, have, have prices or prices were driven quite high. Um, I, I, you know, to me it's, it seems sort of, um, in a way. An odd, you know, an odd factor in the market.
Anna Siwecka, freelance journalist/podcaster:Yeah. I think is there, if I remember correctly, uh, there was a lot of, you know, controversy and criticism, um, that EU was giving too much of the, too many of the free allowances and that the system wasn't really working as it's supposed to be. Like we were not really battling the pollution.
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:Agreed. If you go back to the very beginning of the EU ETS in 2005, not a lot of countries in the EU had solid. Installation level data to show, to, to show what actual emissions from plants were. So in, in, in a lot of the cases in, in the European allocation plans, it was guesswork, you know, some of those allocation plans. For every single plant in the country, the allocation proposed and in three zeros. In other countries, it was down. It was measured down to the last ton. So there's a loss of uncertainty at the beginning. And so when we found out in 20 2006 that the market was long, yes, prices collapsed, but that was what the first phase 2005, six and oh seven was all about, was making sure the system worked, making sure we built up some data. The second phase, which starts in 2008. Addressed those, many of those issues of over, of over allocation, not entirely, but most of them. And so at an installation level, there was more accurate data, which meant that the allocation, the free allocation of EUAs could be more in line with actual emissions at these plants. So work in progress. Work in progress. I mean, again, the MSR is still attempting to address the impact of some of the things that were done in phase two that were not. Correct indeed.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:Um, but I think Anna's into something, you know. Is touching upon a a factor, which I think is quite crucial here. Is it working? I mean, I'm sure it's starting to bite now. So coal, fire generators having to think quite hard, whether they're gonna, you know, fire up their coal plant or if they're gonna switch to gas or become more green.
Anna Siwecka, freelance journalist/podcaster:At the beginning there was also the talk, like, you know, the big polluters, they will still be doing the same because they have the money. To buy the permits?
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:Well, they don't necessarily have the have, they have the money to buy the permits, but they may not necessarily have the ability to pass on the cost. So sure. You know, it works both ways. But again, back in 2005, the carbon price was up there around 30 euros for a while, which was where people estimated it needed to be to force fuel switching. The fact that we are now back up around or towards those levels indicates that once again, people are looking for the price of carbon, which will force. Utilities to switch fuels. So we're not there yet, but we are again approaching those kind of prices and that is the calculus that people are performing. We are in the process of watching the rollout of this new supply restriction, the market stability reserve. It's not, I mean, the second month in. Out of a five year program, you cannot expect instant results. In one sense, the MSR anticipation last year was overdone because people expected it to take effect, you know, and to have a complete effect right away. What we're discovering now, of course, is that when you're chipping away at a 1.6 billion tons surplus, and you're chipping it away by 50% each month. It's gonna take a while before it actually really does impact the availability, the supply of allowances. So we cannot expect a complete reaction and a complete impact today.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:One thing that strikes me is the volatility of this market, Alessandra. I mean, if you look back over the last maybe five, six months and compared to the, the previous six months or the six months before that, there's a marked, marked difference. Yes. I mean, could you, you know, could you explain that? What's, what's going on here? Well,
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:to one extent it's the. Outcome of more options trading because as, as people accumulate options, positions, they have to hedge that and they hedge that by buying or selling EU allowances. It's not fundamental buying, it's hedging options exposure. So they, it exaggerates the price move in either direction.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:On one day. One day it's up a euro another, you know, it's falling by a Euro the next day's up by a year and a half. You know, these are enormous price swings. I mean, they're up to 15, 20%,
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:right? And then that is the impact of options, positions being hedged either way. So, you know, they exaggerate the natural price direction of the market, the underlying price, uh, as people buy or sell to hedge options. Options, exposure. Mm. Uh, and it is continued into this year as well. We've had, interestingly enough, last year was all about the call option, the option to buy allowances. People were, were investing heavily in those this year. You know, it's still there. The call option exposure is there, but there's an increasing amount of put option I. Exposure, the, the option to sell allowances. So there are people out there who are protecting their downside, who wouldn't have dreamed of doing so last year.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:And how does this, the volumes of options being traded compared to the standard EUAs that are
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:changing hands? It's very difficult to judge that. I mean, on a day-to-day basis, because options trading can be lots in an individual day and next to nothing the next day. It also depends on which particular contract and which strike price you're looking at. Mm. So you have to follow the data and you have to, you know, clearly. Understand why certain strike prices are interesting and others are not. Hmm. So it's, it is a little bit more technical than a, a simple, you know, supply and demand equation.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:Sure. Do you expect this kind of rollercoaster, uh, of volatility to, to
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:continue? There's no reason why not. Um, we don't have, if you like. If you look at the price chart from 2018, it was one way traffic going up, up, up, right up until September when things got very volatile. Mm. Um, as long as we don't have that s strong upward trend in, in, in, in place, we're going to have volatility. Simply put, people are not sure the market's going. The options exposure is going to exaggerate. Uh, price moves up and down. Until such time as the market has confidence, that demand for carbon is going to really be higher. The prices are gonna swing around here. There's a lot of other uncertainties, temporary uncertainties, which are keeping the A cap on the market right now. So we have to take account of temporary factors.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:I think we'll come back to some of the drivers, um, later on. What's happening now I think is also, isn't it that a lot of companies are looking at what their emissions were in 2018. They have the 1st of March deadline, don't they? To, to submit, um, EUAs. That's right. Is
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:that a price driver at the moment? It's traditionally, uh, a, a sort of price influence around this time of year. So February march is when companies are getting their verified reports of the previous year's emissions and they're looking at their, uh, balances, their portfolio of allowances to check they have enough. Mm. And then the, the surrendering them to the European Commission. It is a price driver, uh, in the circumstances that we find ourselves today after last year's trebling of prices. It may be that a lot of compliance buyers made the effort. To buy as prices were going up, just to avoid having to spend too much money. So there may be those companies who are already fully covered and only need to adjust by, you know, hundreds of tons. There are some other companies who've and who, who've left it to, to, to a quarter one to do their, uh, their purchasing, which is a traditional, uh, response, A very brave move with these prices. Surely,
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:well,
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:would you go short with these prices? And I'm not sure I would if you're a compliance company. No. That's just not a play. But if you're a speculative trader, absolutely there are with, you know, we talked about the volatility and prices go down as well as go up. And so yeah, you can short it and you can make money from doing that if you're brave.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:I mean, returning to that, to the speculators, there has been a criticism from certain quarters about the role of the speculators in this market. I mean, we're back to, you know, um. The role of them driving up the prices and, and, you know, in, in a vehicle such as carbon, which is there to, to, to, to drive a low carbon economy.
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:Yeah. But now you're moving into the area of market theory. Yeah. And, uh, whether or not a market should have, uh, a. Should have a role for speculators, for liquidity providers, for market makers. It, you know, that's, that, that's not necessarily a question that we wanna go into here. Mm. Um, but it's, but the fact remains that traders speculators have all had very important role. In price discovery in finding out exactly how much an EUA should cost at any given moment in time.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:Absolutely. But the question is what companies and how many will still have to buy for, for their compliance purposes?
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:Uh, well, there's 12,000 installations around Europe who are covered by the E-U-E-T-S, you know, so there's plenty out there. Uh, it's just a question of whether or not they want to manage their exposure. Their, their risk actively or passively. When prices between 2012 and 2017, prices were like mumbling along. Its 5, 6 4 euros. Of course, it made sense to delay your purchasing, your annual buying for compliance to quarter one because you, there was, you know. There was no risk. The prices were always the same, and everybody who did that got mightily caught out in 2018 because the price trebled between quarter one and quarter four. Now they find instead of paying four euros, five euros, they have to pay 20. That will force some changes. They'll have to have more active monitoring of the market. In order to avoid, you know, splurging vast amounts of money that he didn't expect to have to do,
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:the commission will publish these figures, the verified emissions for 2018, early April, 1st of April. Uh, first working day of April, first working day of April. What are your expectations here? I mean, we've seen them come off a little bit in recent years. Hasn't really driven prices though.
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:No. Um, I would imagine that just looking at the, at the, the overall at, um, environment from the past year, uh, we had Ave had a mild winter. Uh, it started off, it didn't really kick in until the new year if there was any cold temperatures at all. So there might be a decrease. Power sector in many countries has been switching towards gas. So we might have some reductions there. Equally, demands may have declined slightly.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:So your gut feeling is for, uh, reduction,
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:small
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:reduction. If we can return to the fundamentals and maybe even the technicals, um, Alessandro, what do you think are driving or will. Drive prices in the coming weeks, will it be the technicals, you know, there's a, the 200 day moving average. Could you de describe that in a little bit more detail, how that influences, you know, price formation and, and, and the market? Well, the 200 day
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:moving average has become in the last couple of weeks a major factor. The reason is, is that the market has been above this moving average since. Late 2017, summer 2017, that's when the rally really began and the price was above 200 day moving average and has remained consistently above that up until the last couple of weeks when it suddenly came back into, into focus and the market dropped below it briefly last week. So that is a. Fairly important support level for the market. If we can stay above it all well and good, we fall below it. The game's open,
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:that aspect overrides elements such as the, the B word, the Brexit factor, or warmer weather, or, you know, increase in gas fire generation.
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:Well, it doesn't, and dozens, I mean. It is a, you know, when the price crosses a major psychological barrier, either up or down, that has an impact of its own. But as you say, there are other factors in play. Brexit is, you know, it's a continuing, um, black cloud over the market because people worry that in, in, in the, in, in the event of a no deal Brexit, UK installations will have to get rid of as many EUAs as they can before they become ineligible or. You know, taken away from them. Um, so they'd
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:literally get dumped on the
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:market
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:from the 30th of March onwards.
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:Well, the problem is we're run, we're running outta time. Mm-hmm. That's the case. Yes. We're really running outta time here. And so the question is, have they started to sell off these EUAs? Will they start to sell off these EUAs, or have they simply transferred them to another account within the EU from which they can play with them? So we don't know
Anna Siwecka, freelance journalist/podcaster:black cloud over the market. I have a question about what has happened actually in the beginning of this week when UK climate Minister Claire Perry said that if there is a deal, UK will stay in the ETS until the current trading phase, but then onwards it will be preferable for the UK from 2021 to actually have a standalone, um, system.
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:So, I mean, Claire Perry said. To the House of Lords that the preferred outcome, the preferred option is a standalone UK ETS that is linked to the European market. That's the, the number one. If then that, then that does require, well, it requires a deal. It requires us to go from being members of the E-U-E-T-S up until the end of 2020 to suddenly being a standalone ETS linked to the EU ets, right from the 1st of January, 2021. Um. That has all sorts of potential challenges and, and di difficulties attached to it. However, she did say is that in the event of a no deal, we would still go ahead with the UK ETS and we would still try and link it to the EU ETS, so we, we know. Mm-hmm. The gov current government's policy is standalone UK ETS linked to the European market, a standard UK ETS linked to the European market. Whether or not that happens in the time available. To 2021, should we say is another question entirely. It, remember, it's taken, it took the Swiss about 11 years to link their ETS, right?
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:Yes. That was gonna be my next question. So how, you know, how, how can they think that this could happen in a, in a matter of months or, you know? Well,
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:Claire Perry made some interesting points. She said, look, the UK was intimately involved in setting up and reforming the E-U-E-T-S. We, and the Swiss weren't. Well, they weren't, were they? No, no. Fair enough, fair enough. Um. So we start from a point today, or even on the 20, the 30th of March this year, or whenever we start from a point of having identical regulatory systems, all that would have to happen is that the UK would have to adopt in domestic law, sufficient legislation to make sure that the UK emissions market began its life as close to the European model as possible. Hmm. That's the first thing. The second thing is then to negotiate a link with the European Union itself. Now we have something like 18 months to two years before we would leave under a negotiated withdrawal. Um, we have less than that if it's a no deal. So the onus is very much on the British to say we need, you know, to negotiate that link. If that, if it can be done all well and good. And from 2020, from December the 31st, 2020, we leave January the first, 20, uh, 21 we join as a linked member of the E-U-E-T-S
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:is, I mean, is there a majority of the current government or even the opposition for this option? I mean, is this the preferred option from both the government and opposition?
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:I don't think anybody, uh, you know, the, the general membership of the House of Commons in the UK has any. Interest or awareness of this. This is a highly technical, marginal issue within the overall, very,
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:very important, Alexander. Very, very, very
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:important, environmentally critical. Um, but you know, you wouldn't expect Jacob Reese MOG to have a view on the ETS in the future of it. Mm-hmm.
Anna Siwecka, freelance journalist/podcaster:You never know.
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:It's possible. It's possible. Um, so I don't think there's, you know, there's any real mileage in, in, in speculating what the House of Parliament would do. They won't vote on this. This is a regulatory thing. I, I'm guessing that the government's preferred option. Is the government's preferred option, it's been stated. They will issue a consultation paper at the be at the end of April, so we'll all have a clear idea of what their intention is, what it will look like, and they'll be asking for views on how to set the cap, uh, et cetera, et cetera. So we'll find out
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:there's another fundamental issue in the market currently. Uh, well, there are many, but one of them is, is the, uh, announced coal exit from the German government and moves from from Spain, unfortunately, not Poland yet, but, uh, Spain to do the, to do the same. Spain, Italy,
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:France, Netherlands, Germany, and in fact the UK as well, remember the uk. Sure, sure. Yeah. Yeah. So, um, yeah, that's, that's a really big hairy. Question that's hanging over the market as well, because if you take away a coal plant, you take away demand for an EU allowance of carbon. How do you compensate for that? You have to cancel at the moments gov member state cancellation of UAS is purely voluntary under the emissions trading directive. It's not mandatory. Hmm. Uh, you notice the number of coal plants that have shut down so far in the past four or five years, there's been no cancellation by any government. Any of the EUAs that would've corresponded to the demand from those plants that are closed
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:and with, with carbon prices at 25, uh, uh, Euro a ton. Hmm. You know, I think you'd be a, a brave treasury to, to, to, to cancel that, that kind of, that kind of volume.
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:That's very true. But again, if you don't, that those auctions at 25 euros will suddenly become auctions at five euros again. Mm. So, you know, there's a balancing act here now. The German, um, coal commission recommended. Cancellations of eua is equivalent to the closure of coal plants. But even that, it's not clear exactly how many EUAs will be taken out of the market,
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:and it's only a recommendation.
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:And it's only, I mean, the German government has said they accept the findings and, and they'll, they'll, they will act accordingly. But between here and a final decision, anything can happen.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:You're an expert. You've been covering this for, for, for many, many years. What advice would you give to someone entering this market or looking to in, in, into, into invest? Is it a, is it a safe investment? Um,
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:I think my first advice would be buy four pairs of very sturdy underwear. Um, this is, this is a market that can, you know, that surprises. Everybody
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:and maybe a, a hefty dose of Valium or something, or caffeine, even caffeine
Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance carbon/energy reporter:and Valium in equal proportions. I think the, the, the difficulty is, is that we know that the trajectory should be upwards over time. And last year was like a textbook case, but equally, um, there's a short term element to the carbon market. Take, take a look at the, at the gas price in Europe. Take a look at the coal price in Europe. Take a look at the global supplies of both of those commodities. That's a really important impact on the demand for carbon. Um, we've, we've seen, I think prices for coal and for natural gas have come down by up to 20% since last October. I. Um, if they both come down at the same rate, what does that do for the relative, you know, uh, competitiveness of coal or gas? You have to factor in the price of carbon, the price of power, so. There's so many moving parts to this. I, I think that if you're going to invest in this, you have to have either a conviction or you have to have a really, you know, as I said, stout pair of underpants. Mm-hmm. Or a subscription to Montel or that
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:all the knowledge. Um, I think that rounds it up from from my side. Anna, have you got any further questions you'd like to ask Alessandro?
Anna Siwecka, freelance journalist/podcaster:I think I know everything now.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:In that case, I'd like to end here. Uh, thank you listeners for, for holding out this far and that rounds up our carbon special with Alessandra. Thank you Alessandra for, for making it in to come and talk to us. Alessandra Vitali, it's a pleasure. We will be back again next week with another edition of the Monte Weekly podcast.
Anna Siwecka, freelance journalist/podcaster:For more energy news, check out Mon website. Subscribe and follow us on Twitter at Mon News. Bye
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:bye.