Plugged In: the energy news podcast
Coming from the heart of the Montel newsroom, Editor-in-Chief, Snjolfur Richard Sverrisson and his team of journalists explore the news headlines in the energy sector, bringing you in depth analysis of the industry’s leading stories each week.
Richard speaks to experts, analysts, regulators, and senior business leaders to the examine not just the what, but the why behind the decisions directing the markets and shaping the global transition to a green economy.
New episodes are available every Friday.
Plugged In: the energy news podcast
France’s nuclear fleet – surprises likely in 2019?
The Montel energy podcast – market insights from people in the know. In this week’s episode, we take a close look at France’s ageing nuclear fleet. Are we in for any surprise incidents this year, or are “the men in white coats” in control?
As this episode goes online on the International Women’s Day, we salute the women in white coats.
Hosts:
- Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel,
- Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel.
Hello and welcome to the latest Monte podcast. Today we're in Paris, and joining me Richard Ferrison, news Editor Europe is Chris Eels, editor France. Bon or ris, there's a lot to talk about. And if we want to, we could touch on the fine wine, the gastronomy, the history and the culture of France, this, this grand ion. But, uh, as this is a Montel podcast, we will restrict ourselves to matters relating to the French wholesale market. Oh dear. Uh, unfortunately, Chris having. You, you've covered this for almost 20 years, so, so you are quite an expert. Yeah. I mean, I've covered it for a while, but I I'm still very young. Of course. Hmm, of course.'cause without saying, I mean, come on. I suppose it would be obvious, Chris, to start. Since we're here in France to the, there's one dominant player, which is EDF, and then I think we need to sort of discuss its its nuclear fleet and what's going on here. Mm. In recent years, the firm has had a few troubles, to put it mildly, with some of its nuclear reactors. What does it forecast? Nuclear production. And in 2019. And, and, and is this outlook reliable, would you say? Well,
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:yes. Troubles is a very, uh, it's a very interesting word. I mean, that. At least troubles they've had. They've had some very serious issues. In fact, over the, over the past few years. The most recent serious issue was in 2016 when there was an issue with carbon segregation and those huge problems, which caused enormous, had an enormous impact on the wholesale market. So prices rocketing. Across Europe, across, it wasn't just France. Yeah. And, and across Europe. Yeah. I'm not gonna go back all over that, that ground, but we have. Thank you. I thank you. I thank you all. Uh, I could go back over that ground of course. But, uh, we've all, carbon segregation is not that sexy. I suppose. EDF, uh, has actually recovered. Slightly since then, even though or nuclear
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:fleet has, I mean ED or as the EDF, as a company, you're saying?
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:No, sorry, I'm talking only about nuclear production. Nuclear production has improved since it hit a 17 year low, 17 year low in 2016, um, due to these, uh, carbon segregation issues. And then there was another issue at triggered that in, in recent years as well. That was the end of last year, 2017. When I say last year, that also caused a lot of market.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:Jitters, didn't they? Yeah, of
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:course. That again, freaked out the market quite considerably once again. But you don't just, uh, order the closure of, I think it was four reactors, staggered closure. You know, it's very unusual for a safety authority to do that. And that's what they did at Trick Astan due to, they did almost o overnight, didn't they? They did, that's right. Overnight. I mean, it was possibly edfs worst nightmare. We are, uh, since then. In 2018, um, EDF didn't hit its, uh, production target. They were, they, they were just short of it. You know, they ended up with 3 9 3 Terawatt towers. I think if my, uh, if my memory is correct, yeah, we should often is, um, or not matter of debate. So we were 3, 9 3 last year, which was up. From the years. 3 9, 3 ott. Hours. Hours, OTT hours, tert. Yeah. Which, and that was
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:up from the previous year, as you're saying, and up again from 2016. That's right. Yeah. So what's a EDF predicting for this year?
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:Now? For this year, they're predicting 3, 9, 5. So it's pretty. Pretty stable actually is, is their prediction. However, you have to take these forecasts in context or with a pinch of salt. You could um, or mountain could said, or with a glass or a glass of rouge. Yes, indeed, indeed. Indeed you could. And so you should. Maybe Why wouldn't you? Is the question or, uh, a little bit of a pate or Yeah, a little bit of can bear or cheese. Yeah. Well, yeah. This is the country of cheese, as we said in the intro. Did we? Yes, we did. We did touch on that. Well, let's get back to nuclear outlook. Chris know it's nuclear output. How could we, how could we get away from it? Well, exactly, exactly. That is the core issue. It is the core issue. Now getting back to nuclear output. So we've said the situation is improving, which, which it is clearly. But in terms of their estimates, they, they tend to change their estimates, uh, towards the end of the year. So they change their estimates for the year, upcoming year, right at the end of the previous year. Mm. It's very strange. So in any, which, which means that in fact the 3 9 5 target is, is quite modest actually. Mm-hmm. Um, in, in earlier years, they were hoping that they would hit 4, 4 20, something like that. That was the kind of figure they were looking at. And so they've actually, even though it represents an increase on last year, if they hit that target in general terms and looking at the, the history, they're actually bringing down their targets. And the reason they're doing this, there are several reasons they have scheduled outages. And the scheduled outs. They have this year concern, the 10 year, the so-called 10 year visits. This is not a visit to, um, not a man in a white overcoat visiting a plant. Well, it is actually, or several. There may be several people in white overcoats coming to see people. That's always possible. Yeah. At any time. But yes, no inspections do. I'm not sure if they actually, if the inspectors wear white overcoats, although. You would hope they did because otherwise they could be mistaken for, uh, I don't know. EDF directors, chairman of the board, monell journalists. Well, well, we don't want that, do we? Many in white coats will be turning up at several reactors this year to conduct what are known as 10 year inspections. These happen once every 10 years, and they are designed to determine whether a reactor. Is fit to carry on running for the next 10 years. Mm-hmm. That's how it works in France. Mm-hmm. Despite what you may have heard, there is no official limit to the lifetime of a reactor in France.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:Mm-hmm. So they can turn up, you know, in their white coats and decide, okay, this reactor is, is fit, uh, for purpose for another 10 years, and then only turn up. They don't need to turn up for another 10 years. Well,
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:they do, they do. They do regular maintenance and annual maintenance outages where they do refueling. So they're supposed to be updating all the time. But there is this thing called the 10 year visit, which is designed as the important moment. Mm. In a way it's an important moment and it's, it's key because, uh,
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:why is it important now? I mean, what could, what impact could it have on, you know, what could these men in white coats determine? Now these men in
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:white coats, why are they so important? They're so important because French uh, policy. Hinges on their decisions in a way. Mm. Now, what is French policy when it comes to extending the lifetime of reactors? Mm. Well, for us' policy is actually to extend reactors. That's really what's come out in the PPE, which is the French Roadmap Energy Roadmap, which sets out. Hmm. Uh, the energy, including nuclear path for the next 10 years and what they've said. So it's
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:cheaper to extend the life than obviously to build new ones or maybe even build renewables, which is happening elsewhere in Europe. But that's another topic we they return to. Yeah. Yeah. We at later time. Yeah. Just
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:to complete this, you know, what, what's, what's important about these reactor extensions in 10 year visits? If they get the, okay. Um, then they can go ahead and, and, and, and extend those. And that's the policy that's actually French policy without even before they know whether they will be allowed to extend these reactors. That's French policy. One expert has told us that concerns about 44 to 46 reactor extensions. France has said, and Macron, in fact, Emmanuel Macron, I dunno whether you've heard of him. He's the president of France. I've, I've I've heard him mentioned once or twice
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:over the, the past sort of six months. Yes. Yeah. He's,
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:he's, uh, still the president of France and quite, uh, hanging on by a, by a. He's hanging on by his tie anyway. Um, that's why he is taking it off. Yes. That must be the reason why he's taking it off. It's true. Yeah. Um, nothing to do with 20 degrees temperatures in, in February. So his, he announced earlier this year, uh, in fact, uh, I think it was in January, that there would be 14 closures of French reactors by 2035. That implies, because there are 58 reactors in total, that implies that you're gonna have. Um, massive extensions. Mm. Because if you only close 14 outta 58, you are left with 44. And you know, so that the mass is very good, Chris? Mm. Yeah. Well, I'd like to think so. Thank you very much Richard. Richard should, yeah. Yeah, you're welcome. I never thought I'd hear you say that. Yeah,
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:well, you know. Okay. We have our moments, um,
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:this year or the 10 year inspection. Yeah, yeah, yeah. According to, uh, according to EDF, in, uh, February, they announced when they announced their. Their targets, the target, which we talked about earlier. Um, they said that there would be 10 year inspections. That's seven seven reactors. So that's a lot, that's an awful lot of, which is why that's happening this year. Yeah. That's due to start this year. And you know, they, these 10 year inspections, they can last up to six months and they could actually, they might not meet the deadlines. They might go over, over the scheduled outage dates. That's very important. That's so, so when you have, so these
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:inspections, these could. Sorry to interrupt Chris, but just to get it clear. These inspections, they, that mean the reactor has to be offline, so these seven reactors would have to be offline to, for the men in white coats or the ladies in white coat to carry that out properly? Yeah,
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:no, they, they shut them down. They take them off grid. They're off. I'd have to check the dates, but it's anywhere from four months to, I, I think to six months. I might be wrong. Don't, don't, don't hang me or shoot me if that's not true. Problem is of course, when you have such a lengthy outage with so much work to do. Then, you know, you sometimes you over, you overestimate or under or likely underestimate the work that needs to be done. And EDF have warned actually, um, that there are likely to be changes.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:Okay. So which of these several reactors are they,
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:the exact details are available on r t's websites. So we can The tso, RTE? Yeah. Yeah, the TSO French T-S-O-R-T website. You can find out which ones are due off, but we know that I think there are also, there are ten seven planned tenure outages and that two of those outages will be first of a kind. In other words, if these are outages which occur, um, we are checking for. Reactors, which have going into their 40 years. Uh, these are not
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:young spring chickens. No, no. Unlike, unlike us of course. So we're talking about
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:Tristan and, uh, and sh um, which is not a vegetable, uh, shoe and French is cauliflower. I think. Sh flo, isn't it? You? Oh, you fly.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:You are the guy who lives in France, obviously. So you, you're the expert. So given the problems at certain plants in 2017 and 18. What can we expect this year? Can we expect a repeat of the issues that trick us down? I mean, we obviously don't know, but are there any any particular reactors or plants that are susceptible or, I mean to, to lengthy outages or to lengthy inspections by our, by our chaps and or chaps in the white coats?
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:Yeah. I mean the, the white coats will be everywhere this year. So watch out for them. Uh, don't let them in if they knock on your door. Mm-hmm. Um, well, it's very difficult to say which reactors might be affected. I don't think anyone can say that. But I think what you can get away with saying is that all the, all the reactors are potentially, um, in danger, in fact, because of the age of these reactors.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:Mm-hmm.
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:Um, they're really, they're really pushing on, um, they're possibly almost as old as you are, Richard.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:No, I, I think, you know, they're not, as you mentioned, they're over 40, so I'm still in a much, much, much, much. Much below that. So I mean, you've, we've heard anecdotal evidence, haven't we, that, for example, the piping. Uh, has been at some of the reactors, I think it was T Tristan is almost, has almost rusted away. Uh, that's maybe externally. So that's a sign that, uh, that they're not getting any younger.
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:Yeah, I think there were classic aging signs and I think Montel, we ran a few stories based on evidence gathered by. People on site, workers on the site, union contacts who I spoke to, workers on the site who told me that the conditions were appalling. You know, these kind of basic piping and things was, were falling apart, rusting, you know, it, it was, it was a bit of a joke. So you, you have these issues, um, which are really, you know, clear examples of aging, of, of materials. And not only that, you have, uh, a situation where. Uh, what we are hearing, what we are hearing more and more of in fact, is that inside plants, um, there is a rush to get work done in the min with u using the minimum amounts of money. I mean, basically that's corners are being cut potentially. Well, I mean that possibly, I don't wanna make allegations, but what we hear is that, um, there's the pressure on staff and workers at nuclear power plants to get these jobs done. Fast. Mm. Is immense. Immense. Mm. And uh, this includes subcontractors as well, not just EDF staff, subcontract staff who do the, who do the big maintenance work, in fact. Mm. Uh, and this is in a context, we can understand the context. The context is one way EDF is in, is in a lot of trouble in many ways.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:Absolutely. And I think so to, to sort of summarize with the tenure inspections, some issues could come to light. Whereby it would mean that there would be lengthy outages. We just don't know. Um, so we, we are purely speculation. We don't have a crystal pull, I think.
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:No, we don't have a crystal ball, but I think what you could say is I would per, I would take that 3, 9 5 target with a pinch of salt or cell as they say in these parts. Mm-hmm. Uh, because of the reasons I've said, the outages are very long. EDF has already warned that they might go over, over their schedules. Mm-hmm. Um, and because, uh, we have seen every year, almost every year in the past three, four years, that, you know. Issues crop up, they've gotta carry. So the market should
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:strap itself down and prepare for a rocky ride maybe potentially this year. Yeah,
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:strapping is, was interesting. Um, and uh, they, they should prepare. They should be ready. Definitely be prepared for a bumpy year.'cause you never know
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:the past years or anything to go by. Probably this won't be any different. John Bon Levy, the CEO of EDF, who you tried to speak to recently. Right. Um, who didn't really have that much, didn't really want to say much to you. Um, I dunno why Strange that No, no, it's strange. But what did he say about the, the targets and
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:the years to come? Yeah, so what he said was that, it's interesting really, he said that nuclear edfs, nuclear output would not exceed 405. Terawatt hours per year in the coming years, in quotes coming years in quotes.'cause he didn't say how many years, but now this is a admission. Uh, as he said, uh, our objective a few years ago was four 20 terawatt hours, but in the next years we will not produce more than 4 0 5 because of scheduled plant outages. There we, there we have an admission. Uh, that's quite interesting that, that, that gives you an indication of, of, of, of. What they're, what they're thinking.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:Okay. And very interesting 'cause, but we've also, there's still an ongoing investigation that's happening, happening in, in parallel to this, which is the Lazo or the Inspector
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:Zo Lazo
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:Fern. Exactly. So what's fe I think there may be a berm in this room. Uh, but yes, it's, you know, getting away from, uh, tacky Pink Panther gags, uh uh, Chris. But what? I think they're attacky. No, no, no. They're not attacky. They, they were funnier, but they were, you were just showing your age a bit, but, um, um, but what's happening with the investigation? What, where do we stand? Well,
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:yeah, I mean, actually the, the, the, the Lerone investigation goes on. But the latest news we have, um, I. You know, the investigation was actually, they were reviewing reactor parts that were made at Czo and Czo being the factory in the south of France, where, um, Arriva at the time, uh, now ton, uh, made, uh, equipment for reactors, uh, amongst other things for reactors all over the world. Mm-hmm. And obviously a lot in France. So there was a huge scandal. Uh. Which was, um, I mean, this is fraud on a large scale. Yeah. I mean, millions of documents that they're going to go through and find some false allegations, et cetera. Yeah. I mean, they were, they were, well, the allegations, well, the allegations were that they, they falsified. Um, they made up the results of tests. That's what they did. So it was decided that an investigation of all of the reactor files, in other words, whatever came outta that factory, went into edfs Reactors needed to be checked again, even if it had the correct paperwork, because this paperwork, some of this paperwork had been shown to be. False. They'd been fraud. They had to double check. And that meant going through millions and millions of, uh, now, um, according to EDF, they've actually gone through the, the, the files related to re reactor equipment. Mm. And they, they, I think they have, uh, not, I'm not quite sure at this time whether they've cleared all of the reactors, but they may well have looked at all the files. We are still waiting to see whether we have got the all clear. But I think EDS mentality at the moment is definitely this. Cler, uh, um, scandal is behind them, actually. Okay.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:Potentially there could be some, some issues here. There could be, uh, some surprises. There's always
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:room for surprises. I mean, oh, sorry. Recently, um, a SN, the French Nuclear Safety Authority wrapped, uh, EDF on the, on the, on the knuckles and said, look for, for the EPR, the European, uh, pressurized reactor that they are building in Flamanville, um, wrapped them on the knuckles again, warning them that, um, they have got to look. Scrutinize the control of the quality of their equipment there. So this issue of quality of materials and them being fit for purpose is if Zo is on its way out, if that issue is, if that issue is solved or is has been, uh, dealt with, if, if it has there, you know, there, there, there's still examples. There's still the chance that other issues will crop up and. When you see something like this business, latest business at, uh, the EPR, you, you can't rule out, uh, more, more of these quality issues and mati issues with equipment that hasn't been checked properly or has been. I'm not suggesting that any equipment has been FALs, uh, data has been falsified at the EPR. No one's making that accusation, but, um, you have to keep your eyes open and your ears open, and we certainly will be because, uh, after the ZO affair. Nothing. And you know, anything can happen.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:It's, I mean, there's an underlying theme here of of certain. Shoddy quality control or, or, or not shoddy, but potentially, but it's not up to
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:scratch. No, you're absolutely right. And, and, and, and the, and the classic, the, the key example and topical example at the moment of that is the issue with the European pressurized reactor. Mm-hmm.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:Which is being built elsewhere in Europe. And we've seen Yeah. All around the world. But
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:I was going to talk about the, the faulty worlds at the European pressurized reactor, because EDF were told. By A SN to improve their oversight of welding. So again, this was, as you said earlier, used the word shoddy. That's exactly the same accusation that's being made for the welding issue at the EPR, which has already delayed the startup of that reactor, which is supposed to be the flagship for this is there's
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:also another one in Finland, though. They've started one in China, but yeah. But this is the flagship European one, the
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:flagship European, which has. Uh, which has been affected and been delayed. Uh, it's actually 10 years, it's been delayed for 10 years and billions over budget. The same Olu in Finland. Yeah, exactly the same. Um, but these issues at flail, they have an impact on this welding issue. For example, uh, could have an impact on Hinkley. You know, they're trying to build a, a new EPR. Uh, Hinckley Point in the southwest of England. Um, so, um, yes we do, there is an issue of oversight and, uh, and control inspections because the issue at the EPR, the current issue is welding and that hasn't been done properly. So in a way, you could say the men in the white coat. Are doing a good job.
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:Yeah. I think, I think Or the women? The women as well. The men and the women in
Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel:the people in white coats. I've never ev I've never, I'm not really a fan of people in white coats, but, you know, on this occasion, yeah. Although, you know, even the people in white coats are open to criticism and people do criticize the people in white coats from the authority to nuclear. Yeah. The
Richard Sverrisson, News Editor Montel:As. Yes. Yes. The watch, of course. Yeah. Open to, but maybe, we'll, that's a topic we'll return back to, I think, Chris, but. For now, thank you very much for a fantastic overview of the current, current issues in the French, uh, nuclear and nuclear fleet. Something we'll come back to probably next month and in the months to come. So it's, uh, olive work from Paris.
