
Plugged In: the energy news podcast
Coming from the heart of the Montel newsroom, Editor-in-Chief, Snjolfur Richard Sverrisson and his team of journalists explore the news headlines in the energy sector, bringing you in depth analysis of the industry’s leading stories each week.
Richard speaks to experts, analysts, regulators, and senior business leaders to the examine not just the what, but the why behind the decisions directing the markets and shaping the global transition to a green economy.
New episodes are available every Friday.
Plugged In: the energy news podcast
Is regulation holding GO adoption back?
Harmonisation and international standardisation; those were the words that were often heard this week when analysts, traders, and energy producers came together to discuss the challenges facing the guarantees of origin market at the GO Conference in Reykjavík this week.
The GO market is a driver for investment in renewable energy production pipeline, but how does it need to change to bring in more firms, especially energy intensive industry, and help boost demand across Europe?
In this episode, Richard speaks to industry experts from the conference in Reykjavík and our reporter Enza Tedesco goes on a tour of one of Iceland’s new power plants.
Host: Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel
Guest: Lars Ragnar Solberg – Principal Consultant, AFRY
Halldór K. Sigurðarson – Business Director, Landsvirkjun
Merve Güngör – Policy and Networking Manager, RECS
Welcome to the Montel Weekly podcast, where we bring you the latest news issues and changes happening in the energy sector. This week we are recording our episode from the GO Conference in Reykjavík, the first large scale GO conference that's ever been hosted here by Iceland's National Power Company, Landsvirkjun and RECS, the Energy Certificate Association. It's quite fitting that we are discussing geos here, given recent issues relating to Iceland's use of geos and events in Norway. Whilst we've been here, we've heard from several companies about the market price outlook and regulatory changes, which could bring more firms in. And drive demand up. How can the GO market be a driver for continued investment in renewable energy production in Iceland, Norway, and in Europe? More generally, how can companies such as energy intensive firms be brought into the market before we launch into the pod? I'm here with Enza Tedesco, one of our editors at Montel, and we stood outside. One of Iceland's oldest power plants you may be able to hear the water running in the background was stood outside the turbine hall of this magnificent building that was built in the 1930s. Enza, what are your impressions?
Enza Tedesco, Editor Montel:Yeah, indeed. The sound of rushing water, fill the air. And if you look at the building, it's probably very sober, which is very typical of the thirties. So there, there is a sign of art Deco style on one of the walls. And obviously this is one of the oldest power plants owned by Landsvirkjun.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:Enza also attended the conference. Here's what she had to say about it.
Enza Tedesco, Editor Montel:I'm here in Reykjavík this week for the GO Conference sponsored by the local power company, Landsvirkjun jointly with RECS, the business association supporting consumer demand for renewable energy, and we heard from GO buyers and traders and obviously the local power company. And even though Iceland is an isolated power system and not directly connected to other market, it is an exporter of geos to the continent. And last year it sold more than 19 terawatt hours of geos, which is basically all of its production. That amounts to about 20 tet hours, but really must because the country's product power production is 100% renewable. The big controversy from many of the energy intensive consumers, especially the aluminum sector, which accounts for about 70% of Iceland's power consumption, is why should they buy geos as proof that they're using green energy? If they're connected to a grid that only transport green energy? Will client pressure and regulation ever change that?
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:I'm pleased to be joined by not one, not two, but three guests. So we have Lars Ragnar Solberg, Principal Consultant at AFRY. A warm welcome to you, Lars.
Lars Ragnar Solberg – Principal Consultant, AFRY:Thank you.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:Halldór K. Sigurðarson business director at Landsvirkjun Also welcome to you.
Halldór K. Sigurðarson – Business Director, Landsvirkjun:Thank you. Happy to be here.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:And Merve Güngör, who is a policy and networking manager at RECS.
Merve Güngör – Policy and Networking Manager, RECS:Hello. Thanks for having me.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:Yeah, great to have you as well. Merve. And I'd like to just start with you, Halldór. How and let's talk about the GO market here in Iceland. How important it are guarantees of origin to production here in Iceland?
Halldór K. Sigurðarson – Business Director, Landsvirkjun:I think they, they're very important. Lance is about to embark on one of the most extensive construction periods that the the company has been in ever in the company's history. Yeah they're really making an impact. And now for the four projects that we have in the pipeline. If we get the proper licenses for everything especially now we're close with the wind. There's only one permit that we need to start construction. The geos are part of the profitability analysis for all these projects and thus they're making the impact that they really shoot and we are getting a premium for our premium product.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:Perfect. And but reversely how important is Iceland to the GO market, would you say? Can you evaluate that?
Halldór K. Sigurðarson – Business Director, Landsvirkjun:That's a good question. So Iceland produces around 20 terawatt towers of renewable energy. So that is a substantial amount for the whole market. But of course, the market is around maybe 850 or 900 terawatt hours. So we're not the major player, but we, I think we can still make a difference.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:And we had several issues here that sort of. Sent few shockwaves through the guarantees of origin market back in 2023, where, the authorities prevented the exports of the certificates from the country. Have this, has this all been resolved now? Are we...
Halldór K. Sigurðarson – Business Director, Landsvirkjun:Yes. Yes. This is all resolved and I can, what did I say? 0.2 aaps press release from late last year when they congratulated Landsnett and the energy authority on their efforts. And I think to be honest, it was a bit of a case of lack of data that the a p didn't have the proper data from us and miscommunication between Iceland and AIB. As soon as they had all the documentation, all the data that we could provide of how, we execute things here in Iceland. They lifted the ban immediately. Yeah, there's no nothing to report on that front.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:Perfect. And the AIB is the Association of issuing Bodies is in a sense the collector of the data and in a way, the regulator as well?
Halldór K. Sigurðarson – Business Director, Landsvirkjun:Yes. They are the Association of Issuing Bodies and the Icelandic member is Landsnett. They were in communication with Landsnett, but then later on when we could explain how we execute the system here, I think that solved it.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:Excellent. And Lars, did it sense shockwaves in the GO markets? What the decision by the AIB here?
Lars Ragnar Solberg – Principal Consultant, AFRY:No, I don't think so, because in the end it, it came out that Landsnett and Iceland are doing things properly. The whole discussion around double claiming, double counting was sort it out. And Landsnett as an AIB member, they are doing things they maybe did some improvements on some things, but they are doing it in the proper manner and making sure that, every megawatt hour of renewable power is certified through the geos and the difference between what is a. Double claim. From a corporate And what is double counting? That was some of the mix up.
Halldór K. Sigurðarson – Business Director, Landsvirkjun:Yeah. I think that's a really important point. That was the main mix up was the difference between double claiming and double counting. And so as soon it was. Very easy for us to prove that there's no double counting on behalf of the producers. But the issue that AIB had seen was false claims that were made claims of using renewable energy without having GOs to back it up. I think it's important to make a clear distinction there between those two. Definitions.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:And so we've moved on from there anyway and that's been resolved. Now I think something that I'd like to dis discuss both with you, Halldór, and with you Lars is the issue of industry and where are we in terms of buying geos, Halldór, maybe say in Iceland what, there, there's is a big center for, aluminum producers, also data centers. What is the standing here in terms of geos with industry? Are they willing to buy? Are they have been opposed in the past.
Halldór K. Sigurðarson – Business Director, Landsvirkjun:Yeah. So it differs a lot between d different sectors. And this we've heard in the conference this week, yeah, there were some lively discussions about the aluminum sector's stand on the geos. But what we ob observed recently in our recent PPAs is industry has demand for green PPAs. Data centers in Iceland are focused on green PPAs as well as land-based fish farming companies. And this is what we've observed in our recent, contracts. But with the aluminum sector, I think we've seen some positive signs. They are, they're moving towards a market-based approach, which is positive. And then we've seen for example last year, mosquito has made some signs on PPAs where tos are part of the deal as well. So it's it's moving in the right direction, but we're not there yet.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:And what's the brief view from Norway? Lars
Lars Ragnar Solberg – Principal Consultant, AFRY:You know it's Norway and Iceland. Is there, there are so many similarities. It's yeah. Both EA members not fully part of the EU. Almost Iceland is a hundred percent renewable Norway, 98%. Lots of power intensive industry. Lots of history, lot of, lots of like emotional discussions around this. And, but we see the same picture as that this is very much sector specific, yes, Norsk Hydro bought a PPA with a, at least a part of it, who had geos included with StatKraft. But the big picture is that the aluminum players are not buying GOs. But on the other side there are, you have lots of players in Norway chemical industry and others that are buying, which are quite power intensive companies, and they are buying GOs. So this is this is a trend that we've seen for quite a while. That, that the, there's so many regulatory things happening, but the big picture is that there is a regulatory push to incorporate geos in new ways sustainability reporting rf MBOs et cetera. So yeah. But I, yeah, I to take the perspective from the power intensive industry, it's big decision to make,
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:and costly, of course,
Lars Ragnar Solberg – Principal Consultant, AFRY:And that's what I mean. That that they have, I don't remember now the latest reference that we heard at this conference but the, te hours of geos for some euro is quite,
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:I think you could say do the math in a way.'cause it's three T hours of consumption plus then the price of the GO. That's the, we're talking substantial amounts of money. Yeah.
Lars Ragnar Solberg – Principal Consultant, AFRY:And then they have to be sure that, that's, that decision makes sense towards their. And consumer sense voice
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:and in a sense, Merve, I think maybe something that the, you, it's important for the GO market to get more companies in to build out the demand and to ensure that the companies see the importance of it and the significance of it. But if big, big industry and energy intensive industry is saying, we get, we're getting no, no push from our clients. It's gonna add to cost. Why should we?
Merve Güngör – Policy and Networking Manager, RECS:So at the EU level, obviously the CSRD, the corporate sustain sustainability reporting directive is coming up, and unless you're a microenterprise, it is going to impact you. So that is definitely one force. And also regarding claims and making claims. The green claims directive, because if you say you use green electricity, for example, it's not clear enough because we don't know what green means and it's not basically explaining, what your client is counting on.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:So we've discussed the CSRD before, the corporate sustainability reporting directive. And I it's a bit of a nightmare in this market. There are so many abbreviations and so much jargon, but we've discussed that before in the pod, but Lars, we've also discussed politics and there was a bit of a u-turn from the government in Norway. Can you explain what happened here and what the, maybe the thinking behind that, that that change of thought was?
Lars Ragnar Solberg – Principal Consultant, AFRY:So basically the whole GO system has been debated in Norway for a very long time. And in 2021 when we had a new government labor party and the center party, they put in their political platform there that they wanted to leave the system. And then nothing really happened. The market, it was a big news. In the market but nothing really happened from their side. And then you had the energy crisis and this topic was maybe not as important. And then the same government in 2023, they added GOs to the resource rent tax in Norwegian, which basically is a very, is a high tax on on, on to be included in, and that was a bit strange in many ways. And now in August a minister came out in motel saying that that no, now it does not make any sense to leave the system due to the large incomes, et cetera, et cetera. And I think that has to do with. Many things. The Norway is in the process now together with the EU of trying to speed up the implementation of renewable energy directive number two. So that's not really compatible with leaving the GO system and just cherry picking what you want. So I think that's important. The incomes from the GOs are quite substantial. And not only for the. Producers, but for the owners and the owners of power reduction in Norway is the states and the municipalities. So that adds up to like millions, billions, sorry, billions on Norwegian kroners.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:And these are kinda of revenues that pay for, services such as swimming pools and sports services and everything. So if you draw that to revenue stream then you're causing problems.
Lars Ragnar Solberg – Principal Consultant, AFRY:And I would also say that. The really kind of the key discussion in Norway now is how to get more power, new power into the system, the big onshore wind debate in Norway, which is very tricky to figure out. And so in that sense to, to leave the GO system, which adds profitability, as the Halldór mentioned earlier is not the right timing. But I'm, I've been following that, this debate for many years, so I'm not a hundred percent con convinced that kind of, it's the end of this story. But I, at the same time the fundamentals now are more tricky than ever for leaving in the system, I think.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:Yeah. So there are, could be some surprises down the road?
Lars Ragnar Solberg – Principal Consultant, AFRY:Yeah. Potentially I would, yeah, no I think there will still be debate, but I don't think they, they will leave and the likelihood for Noway leave leaving is is less than ever.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:Yeah. And as, as Halldór said, the signs are that there are, there are movements within industry that are becoming more more, I wouldn't say enthusiastic. But are more see that they need to buy geos as well to, I think so to prove the green credentials. Yeah.
Lars Ragnar Solberg – Principal Consultant, AFRY:Yeah, exactly. And also that, that it's both the regulatory pressure with all these directives with the geos becoming more important but also the more corporate commercial pressure which I think more and more are meeting when they're discussing it with their clients and the need for the kind of documenting the full value chain.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:But you mentioned something quite interesting, and I'm also gonna ask Halldór about this with Norway and Iceland, they're not members of the eu, they're member of the European Economic Authority. So that's the ea or European economic area rather. So you know how. And you mentioned Norway is a laggard, is a bit slow in implementing where are we now with the renewable energy directive too, because that was put in place years and years ago and we're now almost talking about the renewable energy directive for but the Norway still hasn't implemented too.
Lars Ragnar Solberg – Principal Consultant, AFRY:Yeah, no, I think that. The EU is really making an effort or really putting a lot of push behind the demand of Norway getting red two implemented. And my feeling is that lots of things are moving now and there are lots of discussions in the organizations and the ministry. And this is one of those signals with a GO comment from Osland that, at least that's my analysis, that something is happening.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:Something's happening in the background. Absolutely. What's happening in Iceland? Halldór with the renewable energy directive too. What's what's the status here?
Halldór K. Sigurðarson – Business Director, Landsvirkjun:Yeah, just to add to that that's something I can agree with Lars is that the EU is putting a lot of pressure on the EA members to implement the directive number two, and, yeah I've I, I've see, I think it's moving in the right direction, but then again, this is politics. So it's not, I'm maybe not best suited to answer the question, but yeah, we've seen a push for it and to think it's interesting addition to red one because it enables you to also issue geos for district heating and then potentially also for some hydrogen as well.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:No, it's, yeah it's clear that needs to happen more quickly. It's amazing that it's been allowed to go on so long in many ways. But yeah. I just, before I ask Merve here about the regulatory side of affairs, I think Halldór and Lars, I can ask you about how can you, what's the role geos play? Obviously industry wants to come to these countries because of competitive or cheap or competitive energy prices. But what kind of role does, do geos play here as well to, in, to enticing new companies to these markets?
Halldór K. Sigurðarson – Business Director, Landsvirkjun:I think as Halldór mentioned CEO of Landsvirkjun mentioned in the event we had this week that you need to have an international standard. Even though Iceland there, there's a saying Iceland. Iceland is the biggest count country in the world, but not everybody knows Iceland, so we can't have a specific system here. We just I think that's just in general, like in, in all business you want to be part of a standardized system, and that's what the TOs it's a great tool for power producers in Iceland. And of course, yeah I think just considering the history renewable energy producers in Iceland have produced energy at competitive prices with a very positive impact on the environment. And now we're starting to see a premium for the premium product. Yeah, I think it's a very positive development and a good tool for us to add further renewable energy to the grid.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:Anything to add their Lars? There's a different debate in Norway, different debate in Norway, because there's a challenge getting new capacity on the grid. Halldór mentioned four projects that are close to, close to completion in Iceland. But in, in Norway, it's a different story. It's a it's very difficult to get that new capacity, whether it's hydro, whether it's wind, whether it's, now there's even a talk about nuclear,
Lars Ragnar Solberg – Principal Consultant, AFRY:yeah. Yeah. But but at the same time, removing that profitability or that those extra profits or extra income streams right now seems not the right decision. At least that's my, my thinking. And just as Halldór says it it's maybe, Norway and Iceland being quite small, open economies is it's. It's a kind of a bigger picture here that it's important that we need to be part of the single market. We need to be part of those standards that, that the rest of Europe is following and trust me, I'm from Norway. It's maybe not the right thing to do. Not right now. Yeah, not right now. So that's the bigger picture and also for. On Iceland, they, even though it's an agile, all these industries are exporting fish and other things. And then they have customers that expect them to follow the rules of Europe. So it's, I think it's important in that sense.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:Absolutely. And Merve , let's turn to, to regulation on the policy side here. Now what are the key challenges the GO markets faces? And how can I be clear? There's a, we talked, we have heard talk about the increased need for harmonization and standardization, that the market is still not transparent enough that, that it's a little bit murky. You know what are the challenges we face?
Merve Güngör – Policy and Networking Manager, RECS:Yeah. I'll answer your question by bringing in the point Halldór made just now. Standards are very important and that's why RECS is advocating for international standards and harmonization as well, and being part of an international standards obviously also provides the reliability the market needs. Needs. And the last thing the market needs is uncertainty. So standards are there to assure that. And this morning I was at the send meeting, it was an extraordinary meeting. So I mean there is this analogy of EU directives, like when you expect the member states to implement them, it's like herding a group of cats. So each cat has a mind of their own, and indeed they're all like sovereign states. But on the other hand, when there's any EU mandate, there are post implemented. And you mentioned there is RED two, it was in 2018 and then, we talked about RED three and RECS is advocating for RED four already. Because with Red three there is a huge missed opportunity of full consumption disclosure, but also many countries, actually, not only Norway, many countries are lagging behind in the implementation. And this is actually the point where actually standardization plays a very big role because. Each country's situation can be different. And when there is a standard you need to adhere to, then that basically makes the whole single market operate. Yeah. So one of the key challenges is that we have been talking about the electricity market for a long time, but now we're talking about the energy market, meaning there are several energy carriers included in that. So green hydrogen is definitely a hot topic yet. The moment, and we're talking about bio methane as well. Electricity market has matured to a certain point in Europe, but now the sand standard refers to energy and the the discussions happening right now are referring to the regulation of gas. So because still geos being the tool for disclosure, they apply also for gas.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:So Merve, are you and RECS in, in, in general, are you advocating full disclosure for in terms of sustainability reporting for companies?
Merve Güngör – Policy and Networking Manager, RECS:Yes, we definitely think it'll help a great deal because one thing is that when there is full consumption disclosure, it means there are GOs for every type of renewable every type of energy, not only for renewables. So this works. Okay. First of all, it makes the marketplace more fair because at the moment, the way it is right now, it's as if there is an extra premium for those who take action, who buy renewables because they are the ones who pay the market costs and the ones who don't do anything are the ones who no one is pointing a finger at. While you know there are conversations about greenwashing whenever you talk about sustainability and there's also green hushing. It's a rather new term where you are actually taking action in terms of sustainability, but you are afraid of communicating about that because you're afraid that you will be severely criticized. And when we talk about the GO market, this is quite an abstract market and. Not many people know about it on the street. If you ask, so this can be particularly challenging for corporates to communicate about. So this is actually where geos should play a role because GO is a tool for information. I call it. It's like your ID card or your passport. It gives you the basic information, to identify the energy. And obviously when you are, reporting your sustainability measures, if you include anything about energy. So this is your scope two. Scope two is a term in greenhouse gas protocol. So scope two means the emissions you cause because of your purchased electricity. And scope three refers to your indirect emissions. They are usually related to your strategy or your value chain, but your value chain also has electricity consumption. So actually the next step, which is. Already happening right now is that now companies are they want to take action. They cannot force their value chain. But now corporates are talking about how to reduce their scope, scope three emissions. And one way to do is to do this is basically to buy geos on their supply chain's behalf. And if, their supply chain is several, like smaller producers. Smaller companies, then they can aggregate the demand and it would basically make it easier for them to include this in their reporting.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:Just finally, we need to talk a little bit about prices here. Halldór and Lars. What do you expect to be, the key price drivers in the months and years to come? Halldór, if I can start with you.
Halldór K. Sigurðarson – Business Director, Landsvirkjun:I think it's going to be the regulations. We've seen a bit of oversupply in the market recently and prices dropping. But in the long term, I think market prices will be supported by, cSRD and RF and po et cetera. What's that last abbreviation to Catch button? Ba basically the need for hydrogen producers to have GOs to be able to label it as, green hydrogen.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:So renewable fuel from non-biological origin, isn't it? That's the abbreviation there. It's yeah, this market's full of these abbreviations. So these are gonna be the key drivers. Green hydrogen, certainly. Yeah, potentially that's gonna add extra demand to the market on that side, but on the supply side.
Halldór K. Sigurðarson – Business Director, Landsvirkjun:On the supply side of course hopefully we'll see more and more renewable production come online. So that obviously puts downward pressures on prices. But I think at the same time, demand is speaking up as I, I discussed before. We see from, power intensive users here in Iceland at least that they are more interested in the green PPAs now. And it's a part of a brand, a part of a story that you have renewable energy and it's very important, as we also mentioned for standardization, that you have the proper documents to, to back it up. And that's the trend that we are observing at the moment.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:Yep. Lars, anything to add that you think is the key driver?
Lars Ragnar Solberg – Principal Consultant, AFRY:No, I agree with the Halldór, and I was just thinking that's the discussion on Nordic power prices is very much linked to, okay, when will the new demand come in? And you've seen that was it stock net coming up with some new analysis saying that okay, they have pushed things a little bit further because some demand is not getting online as, as early as they first thought. And I think. This is very much in parallel with in the Go market, that this is definitely the case that CSRD will make a difference. But the big question is when so they're starting to report from 2024, but are maybe those company already buying GOs? Hard to say. And then when more and more companies are complying with this CSRD and for sustainability reporting then it, then prices could go up. For now, it seems like the market is a bit flooded with certificates and a lot of active market active certificates in the market.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:I'd just like to close on one question there, the million dollar question. Will we see euro 10 euros again per megawatt hour?
Halldór K. Sigurðarson – Business Director, Landsvirkjun:That's a good question. I'd least think it's positive how the forward curve looks now. It it shows that market participants are anticipating prices to go back up. Will we ever see the 10 Euro mark again? STX had a good presentation on that during the conference this week. I, I understood it that the answer was maybe, or possibly I'm gonna leave the listeners with that answer.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:Okay. Thank you. Halldór, what about you, Lars?
Lars Ragnar Solberg – Principal Consultant, AFRY:No, I also have. There was a nice presentation on that topic and if if you get a lot of demand from CSRD and at the same time have a dry air, then maybe you can see 10 years again. But like on average over time I'm not seeing that happening in the next years. That's my view. Our view.
Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel:Absolutely. I think I, you think in a sense, a lot has to happen for that to fall into place. A lot of these bricks have to be correctly positioned as well as the fundamental side on the supply side, which is mainly weather driven. But thank you very much. Lars, Halldór and Merve for joining me. It's been a fascinating discussion. I think it's, it's often perceived at a niche market, but it's absolutely crucial for companies to be able to verify that the power that they're using is green. So I think it's a very important discussion and I think will only grow in importance as we go on. And I'd also like to thank you listeners for tuning into the episode. I hope it was very useful. And remember, our podcasts are released every Friday. For the latest news from Montel, please visit montelnews.com and you can follow us on LinkedIn and X or Twitter at Montel group. See you next time.