End of year roundup, 2025 outlook

2024 was a year of seismic shifts in the energy sector, marked by challenges, breakthroughs, and critical debates. From Italy’s energy transition hurdles to Germany’s hydrogen shake-ups and the UK’s evolving gas market, we’ve seen how global events and regional policies shape the energy landscape.

In this special episode, Montel editors – Laurence Walker, Andreas Lochner, Nathan Witkop, Enza Tedesco, and Olav Vilnes – join host Richard Sverrisson to explore the biggest energy stories of 2024. We’ll also look ahead to what 2025 might bring, from key elections in Germany and Norway to the implications of geopolitical tensions and the nuclear revival.

Tune in for expert insights and thought-provoking discussions as we wrap up 2024 and peer into the year ahead for the global energy market.

 Host: Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel
 Guests: Laurence Walker – Deputy Editor-In-Chief, Montel News; Andreas Lochner – Germany Editor, Montel News; Nathan Witkop – Editor, Clean Energy Desk, Montel News; Enza Tedesco – Italy Editor, Montel News; Olav Vilnes – Nordics Editor, Montel News

Editor: Bled Maliqi

Transcript

[00:00:06] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: Hello, listeners, and welcome to the Montel weekly podcast where we bring you the latest news, issues and changes happening in the energy sector. Today we're wrapping up 2024 with a deep dive into the year's biggest stories. Plus, we'll take a peek into what 2025 might have in store for global energy markets. Joining me on mantles top journalists from Italy, Germany, the UK and Norway. Well, listeners, we're we're recording this just before Christmas. Things may change. And this episode will be formed of two parts. First off, we'll start talking about Italy and green energy. So joining me are Enza Tedesco, who's editor for for Italy, and Nathan [00:00:55] Witcob, [00:00:56] who's the editor for the clean Energy Desk. A warm welcome to you both.

[00:01:00] Enza Tedesco – Italy Editor, Montel News: Hi, Richard.

[00:01:01] Nathan Witkop – Editor, Clean Energy Desk, Montel News: Hi, Richard.

[00:01:03] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: So, Enzo, let me start with you. So, what were the key developments in the Italian energy sector this year?

[00:01:10] Enza Tedesco – Italy Editor, Montel News: Well, in terms of the energy transition, I think we can clearly say that there was some progress made in Italy this year. Just basing just based on the figures of new renewable capacity built in 2024. Italy is expected to end the year with seven gigawatts of new green capacity. And there are even more optimistic estimates from the TSO, from Terna that that could reach even 7.5GW and that will be 25% increase compared to the previous year, where we saw six gigawatt. But if you compare it even further back compared to 2022, we had three gigawatts of new capacity.And the years before, ten years in a row, we had no more than one gigawatt built every year. So that that growth obviously looks very promising, especially if Italy manages to keep up that pace. But that said, a lot of hurdles are still ahead, and that's tied to bureaucracy, to new regulation and also the lack of of of supporting regulation and the need for a faster expansion and modernisation of the power grid. So advanced advancements are tangible. But sure, there's still much more improvement for Italy.

[00:02:43] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: So quite good progress so far, but but could do better with maybe a yes, absolutely. It would be an assessment there. And so what about in gas is how is Italy doing. Sort of weaning weaning itself off Russian gas.

[00:02:56] Enza Tedesco – Italy Editor, Montel News: Well that's that's still a big problem because Italy is still very much highly dependent on gas in general. And in fact, a lot of the investments have been focusing on gas in increasing other flows from other suppliers since the Russian war in Ukraine has basically erased Italy's main gas supplier, which was Russia, and accounted for 40% of the imports. But they've been investing even more in gas. They've increased flows from Algeria, from Azerbaijan, even from the north, from Norway. But and they have doubled basically LNG imports. So this dependency on gas or for power generation has obviously extended the role of gas as a transitional fuel in Italy. And that probably is slowing down also a full shift towards renewables.

[00:04:01] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: And Nathan, let's let's talk more generally about the energy transition in Europe. What what do you what in your view are there are the key developments or were the key developments in 2024?

[00:04:12] Nathan Witkop – Editor, Clean Energy Desk, Montel News: I think one of the standout features was the impact of the massive growth of solar of recent years. So this year has seen a bit of a slowdown in the pace of growth in solar. But in the years leading up to this year, we were averaging growth rates in excess of 40%. And so this year started to see that really impact power markets, because we have enormous volumes of solar capacity all of a sudden. And for example, you saw in Spain for the first time negative prices emerge. And I think in the last two years alone in Europe, the some of negatively priced ours in Europe has climbed tenfold. So that is producing a lot more volatility. We have far more hours in the year that are so low that no technology can refinance itself. But then we have hours when the sun is not available. When power prices need to surge to levels that will incentivise the gas plants to come online, that can meet demand. And I suppose this this combination of extreme volatility the, the very low prices that we see reflects, in a sense, an inflexibility in the market to accommodate the volumes of solar coming into the system.So that's something that we've seen in the electricity market. And that's also another. Well, it's part of the reason why the volume of solar investments has really slowed down this year because yeah, if the hours in which you're going to earn money are priced at or around zero for much of the year, then there's no real interest to build more. You're only cutting further into your own flesh. And this is often referred to as the Cannibalisation effect. Having said that, it's also spurred, in a sense another interesting development this year, which is the massive explosion and interest in batteries. So yeah, I think this year we reported in October, my colleagues on the Germany desk reported I believe Leave the grid. Operators in Germany had tallied a massive 161GW of applications to connect batteries to the grid. So I mean, you put that in comparison to. That's that's grid scale batteries. You put that in comparison. We've got, I think, 1.5GW of, of grid scale batteries in Germany right now. Even if only a fraction of these are built, that fraction would still dwarf regulators expectations of how many batteries would be built decades from now, even by 2040. So in a sense, you have in Germany, you have this, this surge of you'll have periods of very low prices, but you'll also have incredibly high prices that reflect you know, the growing scarcity of conventional generation and the need then to price in these assets to get enough back online and you'll have these huge within days spreads.Another story that we had recently of the record high hourly power prices in Germany hitting. I think it was it was in excess of €900 a megawatt hour. But earlier in the day, there were as low as €100 a megawatt hour. So you have a spread of €800 a megawatt hour. If you've got a battery, then that's a very enticing prospect. And that's the reason why we're seeing this massive queue of applications to, to build battery projects, because they're increasingly becoming something that can refinance itself purely based on spreads in very attractive markets. So, yeah, you, you know, in a way you're getting this volatility, but the volatility, especially the higher prices that are happening as we lose conventional generation assets is incentivising the solutions, not the silver bullets. Batteries are no silver bullet, but they are part of the solution for evening out this this volatility. So I think that's one of the major developments or two of we could say interrelated major developments of 2024.

[00:09:08] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: Lots of opportunities there for some. And I think the key words to summarise would be, you know, curtailments of, of solar production congestion, cannibalisation and negative prices. But let's let's look ahead. Now get out the crystal ball Enza, I mean, what do you what do you expect to happen in Italy or what are the the key issues in 2025.What  must Italy do to to to to move on with its its energy transition.

[00:09:37] Enza Tedesco – Italy Editor, Montel News: Well, well that's difficult to to predict obviously. But what I would expect is that the, the ongoing geopolitical tensions will We continue to consolidate Italy's reliance on gas. The government has also labelled a couple of old projects for LNG terminal in the southern regions. In the provinces of Georgia were important as strategic projects to ensure the security of supply. That means probably that Italy will continue to have new investments in LNG and gas have a rate of redundancy, very high. And where some of these infrastructure infrastructure may even be underutilised and that will obviously delay the phase out of gas. The problem here is also that Italy being so reliant on gas also means having higher power prices. Italy is probably one of the European countries with the highest power price probably second or all or the same level as the UK. And that jeopardises the industrial production in risks, competitiveness of the industry. And so the industry also faces a dilemma. Should they prioritise sustainability or focus on their own survival to maintain competitiveness so that we have to keep in mind that the industry is still recovering from the 2022 energy price crisis. And so, so having to invest in the energy transition could be also tricky.And that could also be a risk of delaying the country's clean and energy targets. Like Nathan said, there's been already a slowdown in solar developments. And I think the European Solar Association was estimating that the renewable growth in the. In the solar specifically sector may drop to single digit rates. And that compared to a growth of 40% every year in previous years. So obviously there's going to be a big difference. And in Italy particular, we're also going to be seeing more debates, political debates, I would say more at the political level about nuclear power. That's likely to intensify, although its revival seems still very distant. But it's there. It hasn't trickled down to to the public opinion yet, but it's definitely something that we're going to hear more about. That said, I know that it sounds all very pessimistic and everything but but for Italy it's always a mystery how. But somehow, even with all the uncertainties, things eventually found a way to fall into place.

[00:12:54] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: Absolutely. And I think I think it's also worth mentioning, Enza, that, you know, amidst the political chaos to the north of Italy, certainly France and Germany, you know, Italy's a model of stable government. And who would have thought that?

[00:13:07] Enza Tedesco – Italy Editor, Montel News: Yeah, absolutely. With the history of fallen governments actually, we are an example.

[00:13:15] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: Right. Exactly. That's a fascinating change of tone of events. Nathan, what what do you see as the key drivers or the key key developments issues, even for for 2025, in clean energy?

[00:13:29] Nathan Witkop – Editor, Clean Energy Desk, Montel News: Well, I think we will continue to see growth. I mean, we're talking about a slowdown in solar, but it's still progressing at, you know, record levels of investment. Right. So we're looking at still 65 66GW of solar being added, and Europe has around 340GW. It's targeting 750GW by the end of the decade. I mean, the trajectories for solar and wind and batteries, they're all improving. They're all continuing to expand. But not necessarily at the pace that's needed for the incredibly ambitious goals that the European Union has set. I think in terms of the, what, 2025 will bring in the near term, of course, we've got a new German government. So it will be interesting to see how energy policy will change with the new German government that is most likely to be led by the conservatives again. I expect, given the need for a coalition again, that not much will change. I expect that a lot of what the previous administration sought will continue to be pursued under this administration. I don't expect, for example, any decisions to reverse the exit from nuclear generation or to reverse the exit from coal generation. But I think that decisions around how to find backup generation for renewable energy in the form of tendering for gas plants and what that should look like, whether it should be tied specifically to developing hydrogen as an alternative fuel for these plants in future, or whether options should be kept open to allow carbon capture and storage technology to be used if that's more competitive under future EU ETS prices, the carbon markets, prices that's open.But because that will all be reopened, it will again delay the decisions around this, which were supposed to have been delivered two years ago. And I think that means that we're not going to see these plants arrive by 2030. And that means we start to push back when coal plants can be phased out. So if you might recall that the previous administration hoped to bring forward the coal exit date to 2030. I think that starts to look a bit too overambitious, given that in the last five years we've shed around 20 to 25GW of thermal power plant capacity in Germany, which is roughly equivalent to all of the nuclear power plants that Germany had before Fukushima. So we've really lost a lot of you know, thermal generation capacity very recently. We're seeing that the market is a lot tighter, and when it's not so much a case that, oh no, there's going to be a blackout, because a lot of these plants can be in a reserve in terms of ensuring physical security reserves can kick in to guarantee that. But within the power market the power market needs to hit prices that are very high in order to incentivise the, the deployment of these assets.And that's where you start to see very, very well. Yeah, you see high prices. And this is this has implications for, for industry of course. And yeah, I mean overall though I think a lot of the factors that are that will impact the electricity markets are outside of the the realms of utilities or governments individually in Europe, I think to control I mean, we've got three huge geopolitical areas of risk that are an open question that everyone is waiting to see how they will be addressed in in 2025. That's a potential resolution of the the Ukraine Russia war with with Donald Trump and his intention to do things differently. We'll see how differently that will work out. And then we've got yeah crises in the Middle East that could get worse. And of course the the trade relations with, with China this is of enormous importance for the clean energy sector in terms of China being the supplier of batteries and, and metals and components for, for the clean energy, for clean energy technologies. All of these disputes, areas of conflicts have the potential to get much worse. But at least two of them could also improve. So I guess these are the known unknowns of 2025 and we'll see what. Unknown unknowns await.

[00:18:38] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: Nathan. Fantastic. And and we've also you know, seen the the a word that's commonly used in Germany.Dunkel flauther entering the vernacular in certainly in the global press. And maybe that will come to the fore again in 2025. But Enza and Nathan, thank you very much for, your views and your, your crystal beautiful crystal crystal ball like forecasts for or predictions for 2025. I hope you have a wonderful 2025. 

[00:19:09] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: Hello and welcome to the second parts of this end of year roundup and outlook for 2025. Today I am joined by Olav Vilnes, who's the editor for the Nordic Desk. Laurence Walker, who's deputy editor in chief, and Andreas Lochner, who's Germany editor, all at Montell News. Welcome Olav,  Andreas and Laurence. I'd like to start with you Olav so 2024 has been quite an eventful year in the Nordics, hasn't it? So can he talk us through some of the main, main issues, main developments, developments now as you see them?

[00:19:42] Olav Vilnes – Nordics Editor, Montel News: I think one of the most remarkable events is the volatility, the price volatility you see in this feature of negative prices just increasing in scope. I think we had a big record, yes, last year when it came to negative prices that will be beaten this year led the way by by countries in Finland and the northern business bidding zones in in Sweden because they sometimes have a huge surplus when it's very windy. And that creates this situation.But then you also have periods of very high prices when there is a lack of wind and solar, not least in Germany like you saw now recently, only last week when there's low renewables output in both continental Europe and in Scandinavia at the same time, and you get very high prices because you have less capacity available on those days. So very volatile. I think that's been a big issue. And I think there's also this Average prices are also continuing down. It's the lowest prices probably next year since 2021. And and you can see that a little bit also on the on the investments that it is becoming more difficult to find. Economy new production capacity.

[00:20:53] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: These are wholesale electricity prices Olav?

[00:20:56] Olav Vilnes – Nordics Editor, Montel News: Wholesale electricity prices. That's right. So so even if there's a lot of sometimes about the price spikes that you've seen when when they happen, you also see that long term. Now the price predictions are a bit lower than they were maybe 1 or 2 years ago, if you look into the future. And there are several reasons for that. One of the reasons is probably the lack of growth in consumption that's been slowing down. You've seen quite a lot of industrial projects being delayed, not least related to hydrogen production, also battery manufacturing, production. And these these things are Sort of decreasing the growth forecast for power demand, which again hits the price expectations and again in the next round probably makes less investment in renewables.

[00:21:44] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: Absolutely. So I think this kind of gets forgotten doesn't it? Olav, that actually average wholesale prices are lower than they were four years ago. Sort of during the obviously just before the energy price crisis. And then you have this sort of knee jerk reaction from, from politicians from and from from mass media. Certainly Norway. And there's even talk about sort of cancelling cables or not renewing cables. That's been quite, quite big in the news in Norway, hasn't it?

[00:22:09] Olav Vilnes – Nordics Editor, Montel News: It's been a big discussion in Norway and also partly in Sweden. And it's all about this, this issue that you also have internal bidding zones in countries like Norway and Sweden. And you see this feeling of probably unfairness within people from the southern parts of, of these two countries who have higher prices than consumers in the north. And then it's easy to blame the power cables. That gives a lot of exports to Germany, to the Netherlands, to the UK. And they have, particularly in the Norwegian debate. There was two. There were two new big cables coming online in just a few years ago towards the UK and Germany. And they've been blamed for the high prices you've seen since then, which of course also have come together with the energy crisis. But so there is, there is, there is a debate about this.There are two old cables going from Norway to Denmark as well. So there is actually growing political opposition against renewing them when they reach the end of their age limit later this decade.

[00:23:07] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: And I think what what seems to be forgotten here as well is that they are protecting Norway and the Nordics, really in, in, in the times when they, there's a very dry year because they're very hydro dependent. And when there's very little water in the reservoirs, they in Norway and others in the region are very much dependent on imports.

[00:23:26] Olav Vilnes – Nordics Editor, Montel News: It's it's definitely when you have a hydropower, a system based on hydropower. You need imports when it's dry you. But you also will see a lot of export when it's a lot of rain. And this year we have this situation with very high reservoir levels coming into the winter. And then you will naturally see a lot of exports on these cables, which will lift the price compared to a scenario where all this power was locked into the Norwegian or Swedish system. That's part of what you see in Northen business zones, where you have actually a lack of transmission capacity through the country's locks, locking power into these zones and then give lower area prices there.

[00:24:04] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: Absolutely. So thanks Olav. I think we'll move on. We'll head south now and go into Germany. Andreas you know, it's also certainly not been boring in Germany this year, has it? I mean you have very much a political crisis.Budget crisis and a lot of plans for, for hydrogen ready gas plants, for example, are being made or cancelled or changed. So what for? You would be the most important issues for for 2024 in Germany?

[00:24:33] Andreas Lochner – Germany Editor, Montel News: Yeah, you mentioned quite a lot already. I mean, Olav spoke of the so-called Dunkirk flounder earlier. So when there was no wind and no solar generation, we had that that issues in November and December already. And we saw also very high prices. So that's a big game changer in the debate sort of because people suddenly realise, okay, there could be a scarcity in the market and we really, really see like record high prices. And also politicians suddenly realise, okay, maybe we'll have to have to change the way we're acting at the moment. The German government has failed to, to bring through a plan to tender Tendered 10.5GW of of hydrogen and gas fired units over the next years. And then the government broke up in November. And now we'll see elections in 2025. And the next government will probably have to deal with that issue again and have to find a solution to to bring back up capacity online.

[00:25:50] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: Absolutely. So thank you. Thank you Andreas. I think we'll come back to you and talk about 2025 very shortly.But but over to you, Laurence. I mean, if we're looking now at the fuels margins and primarily gas, which is what what you cover. Has it all been about this kind of gas transit deal? 2024 is about the gas transit deal that runs out at the end of this year between Russia and Ukraine. So talk us through the main, the main there were the most important highlights that you see in 2024. Laurence.

[00:26:19] Laurence Walker – Deputy Editor-In-Chief, Montel News: Right. Yes. I mean certainly there's been a lot of discussion about the transit expiry date, which is the end of the year. I mean, we've we've reduced our usage of Russian gas massively already so that we have these two, two main routes back into Europe. Still one by Ukraine, one by Turkey. The Turks will reach we will effectively halve the amount of gas we're getting from the new year. With the expiry of this contract, which has been in place for five years with Gazprom. I think most analysts, you know, most research still, you know, as a, as a base case scenario for the the transit will stop as, as is expected. Putin has come out recently very vocal to say it won't continue. President Zelensky Ukraine's also said it went we've spoken with Ukrainian gas tso who said there's no discussions to continue consumer. And at the same time you can still go ahead. And there are some people who are fairly convinced there may be there may be further flows.Obviously you may know more by the time this this course goes to be published. Certainly the vacuums on flow have been very vocal about the fact that it was unfair that the transport would end. That they that they need they need the supply. And certainly they do. They rely on it for a lot of their, their gas. And as they said, it's going to cost some millions or hundreds of million more in transit fees to, to sources gas from elsewhere. So they will be seeking very hard to, to get pumping whereby the Ukrainians maybe will not. Well, will certainly not I would say want to do a deal directly with Russia. One possible suggestion, which is perhaps the most likely, is that Slovakia, most likely Slovakia, would do some kind of deal with with the Russians on the Russian border, pay their own transit fees via Ukraine and import that way. Whether that would be acceptable to Ukraine, whether not be acceptable to the Russians or to the Slovakian, or to Europe as a whole. We're going to have to see, but certainly there's still a lot of question marks. Yeah,

[00:28:30] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: It's fascinating, isn't it? I think because we're we're recording this at the 20th of December and this is still going to be a highlight of 2024. What happens. And and, I'm a bit worried because I think in the coming days you're not going to be able to tuck into your Christmas dinner.You'll be you'll be looking to what's happening in, in the Ukraine and what's happening with with the situation with the gas.

[00:28:51] Laurence Walker – Deputy Editor-In-Chief, Montel News: Yes. I mean, in some ways you look at it and I think it should be a simple. Will it follow? Why did you question it? It's a lot. There's there's many variables. There's there's lots of people with vested interests. And what's going to happen, as you know, the financial implications for countries, there's security supply implications and there's the political as the, the, the emotive implications. And, and the moral question of whether Europe or European countries should be still paying Russia money, which is effectively giving funds to the war chest to to yet to come from Ukraine. 

[00:29:28] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: Because there's been there's been talk of blood gas isn't there. You know can you. Can you talk us through that. What's that? Who is it saying that? And what does that refer to? Laurence?

[00:29:36] Laurence Walker – Deputy Editor-In-Chief, Montel News: Well, I guess I suppose. Yes. I've just sworn into a report yesterday. A report that came out recently on it. Yeah. I mean, the effectiveness of the fact that we're paying paying money to to Russia to to make Europe's life easier to, to to keep the lights on here, potentially at the expense of the lives of Ukrainians who are at war with Russia at the same time.There's obviously a certain irony that if we're we're pumping money into Ukraine to help, help the people, we're also something running into Russia. And so that's money. We're talking more than I think multi billion since the beginning of the war would be paid for gas from Europe. For Russia. That's astonishing. Something astonishing about that Obviously. Yeah. I think really quite right to call out no money.

[00:30:24] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: Absolutely. Thank you. I mean, let's move on to the what we expect to see in in 2025. Now, I know, Andreas, there's a election, quite an important election looming in Germany, is there not. What what are your expectations here? What are the country's expectations in terms of impact on energy?

[00:30:42] Andreas Lochner – Germany Editor, Montel News: I think the yeah I mean, the election is coming. It's probably in February. It hasn't been finally decided, but it's scheduled for 23rd for the 23rd of February. I think the general direction should be roughly unchanged. The leading party in polls, the conservative alliance, CDU, CSU. They want to keep the the climate neutrality target in 20 2024, 2045. Sorry. They also pledged to keep the coal exit targets, which is planned, which is currently scheduled for 2038. But on the on the way to 2038, they might change. They may reconsider the next collected steps over the coming years because as I mentioned before, we saw we saw scarcity already in the market and the planned closures over the next years.They may reconsider that because obviously we don't have the backup capacity, the new backup capacity coming in. And so that might be might be a shift in the policy, but the general direction, as I said, should be the same. And there's absolutely no question of Germany turning back on its nuclear reactors is that it's becoming increasingly unlikely because obviously the demolishing work is is ongoing. So it's getting more and more expensive. And so every week, basically it's becoming less and less realistic.

[00:32:21] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: And how about just in terms of what what Laurie was saying as well, the Russia-Ukraine issue. What what would what you mentioned the CDU, CSU alliance. What would their view on the, on the Russia-Ukraine war be? Would that are they still very supportive of Ukraine?

[00:32:40] Andreas Lochner – Germany Editor, Montel News: Yeah, absolutely. They're pro pro Ukraine. There are other forces in the internal politics, obviously, that are pro-Russian, but they, as far as we can see from, from from here won't be part of the next government.

[00:33:00] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: Thank you very much, Andreas. We'll see. We'll wait with bated breath to see what happens in February and the German elections. But there's also another election happening in Norway Olav, but that's maybe a little bit further down the line towards the towards the latter half of 2025, but what are the other issues that you expect coming to the forefront in Norway, in the Nordic region next year or 2025?

[00:33:25] Olav Vilnes – Nordics Editor, Montel News: Yeah.I think the the election is probably won't meet that much energy policy long term. Still is still in September, so it's hard to tell the outcome yet, but the when it comes to the quite a lot of interest going in Sweden regarding these nuclear plants, they're actually because they have a pro-nuclear government that took office in 2022. They have been trying to get two new reactors up by 2035 and, and will present the final proposal for how to help financing these new reactors before in maybe in Q1, Q2. And their aim is that there will be commercial players who will send applications maybe before the end of next year which is probably necessary. If you think about the long pipeline of building new reactors, you need probably need that time to to be finished by 2035. So that's a key issue to. Improve the supply side. I think this government in Sweden has also been criticised for stopping a lot of offshore wind projects. So it's interesting to see how they prioritise nuclear over wind since they have complained about the volatility of the power market. So that's a major interesting topic, as well as the whether the Denmark succeeds in bringing on new capacity, they fail to attract any bids in the rest, not the latest auction for three gigawatts. And there will be another one early next year for another three gigawatts.So it's interesting to see if if, if they maybe turn back to subsidies to get things going.

[00:34:53] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: So what was the reason for that? Olav? I mean, why did they not receive any bids. I mean, was it just because the price was too low?

[00:34:59] Olav Vilnes – Nordics Editor, Montel News: Yeah, I think the combination of the fact that they have had a few success with one where they have actually companies like RW, we have paid money to build out offshore wind in Denmark. Now they won't do that anymore because they see that the revenues are falling, costs are increasing, power prices are relatively low. So what they now need probably is some kind of incentive scheme. Cfds guarantee a minimum price. Maybe go back there to to get it to get something done, like they did in the UK with an auction loss earlier this year,

[00:35:28] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: Because this is the flip side of negative prices or the very low prices that, you know, people are quite reluctant to invest in that kind of capacity that's going to maybe even lower prices. You know, I think but how about in terms of demand and for example, batteries or you mentioned batteries, but that that's more from battery manufacturers are the issues with them. But how about, you know, battery storage and potential demand side growth in the Nordics for next year? What what what are people saying there Olav?

[00:35:57] Olav Vilnes – Nordics Editor, Montel News: Yeah, we can separate that in a way.If you look at the battery storage, which of course provides flexibility short term, which is good to have, they have I think the investments have maybe slowed down a little bit. I mean, they they made a lot of earnings but then they they take out the potential. There is there is. There is only a there is a potential within this reserve market that they can tap on to to get the revenues. But but they are of course thriving on volatility. So that's good for for for battery storage investments. If you look at battery manufacturing then we're talking more about the big industrial things that could have a lot of workplaces. They could you could drive a lot of power demand. That is of course going very bad. Now, with North Wales seeking bankruptcy protection from Norway, moving their projects to the US and and others, large industrial projects also being a bit delayed. So I think that's a that's probably, as I mentioned earlier, a reason why power demand is not coming as quickly and people are concerned about the pace of the green transition in general.

[00:36:58] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: Excellent. Thank you. Laurence, now let's focus on primarily the gas market in 2025. We've been focusing very much on the coming days, in the coming weeks, in terms of the gas transit deal, what happens there? What happens beyond there? I mean, are we still you know, Russia obviously is not going to be take you doesn't have a Christmas holiday when we have a Christmas holiday its Christmas period is in January, if I'm not mistaken. Do you expect it all to be settled by then or what are the other issues that you see being important in 2025?

[00:37:32] Laurence Walker – Deputy Editor-In-Chief, Montel News: Yes, I mean, obviously we lost everything was wrapped up in the in the new year, as it were. Yes. I mean, the Orthodox Christmas is a little later. And how they're all going. Yeah. All day and all these things. So they, there is, I think, possibility that if there is some kind of resolution, it's not until later in the month. This is obviously going to coincide also with the retirement of Trump in the US. So that's so the gas market could have certain implications. Obviously promised to, to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. So if that happened ramifications would be huge. Obviously, the potential to open the doors again to Russian gas, possibly, if that was palatable if it was needed. Obviously we've seen a massive increase in LNG since since the war. A lot more dependence on the US as a supplier. So I think we're going to see more trends for that. There's also going to be sanctions to think about as well. We have in March, we have sanctions or restrictions on trunk shipments of LNG kicking in at your imports.Beyond this, they're going to have to think they're going to be next. And there's been a lot of call for people to crack down on or for Europe to crack down on Russian LNG imports, which are often going to be record levels this year. So I think I think whatever happens in what happens in Russia is can dominate. So it's going to be a lot of, a lot of nurturing, a lot of then trying to work out what's going to happen. But suddenly I think what happens with this transits deal is going to sort of set the scene for the ensuing months anyway.

[00:39:18] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: I think, yeah, I think I think it's fairly safe to say that, you know, 2025 is not going to be any quieter than 2024.

[00:39:25] Laurence Walker – Deputy Editor-In-Chief, Montel News: Doesn't look as though will be. No, no. And I mean, we haven't even touched on the Middle East or other areas. So there are, you know, gases there, especially with the level of LNG we're consuming now in Europe. We're very much part of a global market. So yeah, what happens somewhere is going to have an effect here too.

[00:39:46] Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel: I think we're actually very lucky to have you guys covering this and keeping your eyes on it. And you can cover it and read. I mean, this is you can read all about the latest developments on Montel news, but Andreas, Olav and Laurence, thank you very much for your views and your crystal ball predictions. I wish you all the best for 2025