Plugged In: the energy news podcast

The 'Donroe doctrine' and the new world order

Montel News Season 8 Episode 1

One week into the new year, and President Trump is continuing his mission to tear up the prevailing international order, creating further incertainty for global oil and gas markets following his attack on Venezuela and the arrest of its President, Nicolás Maduro. Meanwhile, Denmark has replied to US threats to annex Greenland, and Russia continues to target Ukraine's power infrastructure, despite ongoing ceasefire talks. 

In the first official episode of the new Plugged In podcast season, Richard sits down with Montel's Chief Analyst Tobias Federico to discuss the events that are already shaping the geopolitical landscape in 2026, as well as the significance of Berlin's power outage that affected 50,000 homes during the first weekend in January.  

Host: Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel News
Guest: Tobias Federico - Chief Analyst, Montel

Editor: Oscar Birk
Producer: Sarah Knowles

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Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Hello listeners and welcome to Plugged In - the Energy News podcast from Montel, where we bring in the latest news issues and changes happening in the energy sector. Our regular listeners will notice that this episode has been brought to you a day earlier than usual. We are marking the change in year with a change in release date. All new episodes of plugged in will now be available every Thursday morning for you to enjoy. In our first official episode of the new season as its tradition on the podcast, I'll be sitting down with Montel's chief analyst Tobias Federico. Will be chewing over Germany's energy priorities for this year, the significance of Berlin's recent power outage and the 2026 global geopolitical environment that's already taking shape in quite dramatic fashion. One week into the new year, and Trump has wasted no time in reviving the Monroe Doctrine, rebranding it as the Donroe doctrine after attacking Venezuela and capturing its President Nicholas Maduro. Back over on this side of the Atlantic, we've seen Denmark respond to US threats to annex, Greenland and Russia continue its attacks on Ukraine's power infrastructure, despite ongoing ceasefire talks. Who is Trump's next target? Will there be peace in Ukraine in 2026? And why is Berlin's power outage particularly concerning for energy authorities? Well, to discuss all this and much, much more, I'm pleased to welcome Montel's Chief Analyst Tobias Federico. Welcome back to the podcast, Tobias. This is our tradition and certainly we'd have to keep this going.

Tobias Federico - Chief Analyst, Montel:

Yeah, absolutely. And I think it's the eighth season if I'm not wrong.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Absolutely, absolutely.

Tobias Federico - Chief Analyst, Montel:

So it's a pleasure to be here and it's always an honor to start this season with you, Richard.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Great to have you on Tobias always. And we've certainly. I've got a lot to talk about today. I think the turn of events from Saturday to today have certainly transformed the global political picture in many ways, and we'll talk about what it means for energy. It's been an eventful start to the new year, as I said, with oil markets responding to Trump's attack, caption, and trial of Venezuela's President Nicholas Maduro. What's your view here Tobias, before we get into the energy implications, what does this. Maduro grab represent in terms of the new world order. Has it been completely ripped up, thrown out the window?

Tobias Federico - Chief Analyst, Montel:

Well, it's hard to find a pattern, honestly. If you would like to find a pattern, then it's a bit about, of course, controlling certain areas. Maybe there's a military pattern in the background where America wants to focus a bit more on the Pacific Theater when it comes to military question rather than the European theater. That's why controlling also the pathways through the Panama Canal. But you can also have a political dimension in the sense that it's a more a left winging government rather than a right wing government. And these other countries like Colombia, like Brazil, and also like Mexico, and of course Venezuela, but we also have the energy dimension there. So it's a bit weird because we are measuring with two things. So what direction here in Germany was the political reaction was really quiet more or less. Yeah. But the general opinion here is a bit Trump does what he wants to do and let's see what's, what are going to be the next steps. And of course he's we are now talking in Europe about Greenland. That could be also quite interesting for the Northern hemisphere for Trump. So I wouldn't say that over the weekend we have started the new world order because I think we started that new world order last year already. But it's a proof that this new world order actually is going to happen. And it's not only hot air out of Trump's mouth.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Yeah, I mean it would you say it's like continuation of what we saw in February last year at the Munich Security Conference and also, you know, the essence of the NSS, the National Security Strategy from the US. It seems to be there's some continuity here as they're not.

Tobias Federico - Chief Analyst, Montel:

Absolutely. And I mean, for us, it's always difficult to find the logic behind Trump's approach, but maybe it's super simple and we want to really think it a bit more complicated. But there, there is this continuation where say, maybe it's also an escalation in the sense that we've reached a new level, but it still fits into this securing my hemisphere to be protected against potential new bigger enemies where Russia might not be the big new enemy, which most likely is China, but it's quite unsure if Russia support China or not in case of any potential military conflict.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

It's almost like we're back to a 19th century, late 19th century scenario where might is right and there are severes of influence. What has been the impact for energy here? We've seen generally energy prices come off this week. I dunno whether precisely in relation to what's happening geopolitically, but also obviously fundamental factors like maybe a milder spell. What do you think are the energy implications of what we've seen here with the grab of Nicolas Maduro Tobias?

Tobias Federico - Chief Analyst, Montel:

Absolutely. Venezuela is interesting country in that sense it has huge oil resources, mostly oil connected and not gas connected. That's why here in Europe we are not directly affected to that. Of course, oil is a very important trigger when it comes to any type of movements in the energy market and in the prices. But Venezuela has been limited quite a lot in the exporting of their natural oil reserves in general. So the impact of volume impact is not that high. The insecurity is there of course, but we are currently in a situation of a certain oversupply even though we are in wintertime. So it'll be interesting how it evolves if really, and I've seen that US companies are bit reluctant in investing to Venezuela right now because the political instability is there. But the reserves are huge. And the potential surplus, which will come to the oil market is quite high. So therefore we do not expect oil prices to be escalating in a sense. We see this in other commodity prices, but that's much more weather and season related rather than geopolitical related right now.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

So certainly we've seen the share prices for some of the big American oil produces rise significantly just in the last couple of days. But Trump made it fairly clear. This is about oil, isn't it? Yeah. Is it all about oil, Tobias? Would you, is that something that you could agree with?

Tobias Federico - Chief Analyst, Montel:

Yeah. I mean, that's more or less a no brainer, honestly. Just to expect. But it reminds me also about, and we have a certain age, Richard, as when it comes to the 1990s and the invasion of the Iraq and the first Bush administration, which then really it was always about controlling all what's a bit different in the 1990s compared to today, that in general the US are a net energy exporter. But that is connected mostly to natural gas and not really to oil. They're still importing oil. So I think here we have a bit of a mixed picture when it comes to the controlling part, because on one side, the US acts like a, I want to control my markets where I'm going to supply my energy, but on the other side, I need to control those markets somehow, which are supplying me. And in this case, it's mostly oil connected, so that's why it's a bit of a no brainer and a bit of 1990s the approaches, but it's about the oil.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

And it, and the Venezuelan oil is a very high quality blend, isn't it? It's it's something that's very much sought after. But is there a gas impact here at all? Obviously still a lot of long-term gas contracts are indexed to oil still, maybe less and less but that could be that's the way, one area in which gas could be impacted.

Tobias Federico - Chief Analyst, Montel:

Yeah. We have these impacts there. We have the contractual impacts and we have the psychological impacts. The contractual impacts are a bit easier to grasp, especially for us as analysts. Yeah. Because we can model that. When it comes to psychological components, it's a bit more complicated to model psychology, human psychology especially. But in the end, when we have interconnections here, it's a bit interesting when we look into the geographical landscape because Trinidad and Tobago, they're also exporting some LNG. So the gas impact over the LNG roots that's a bit interesting, but it's not a super huge impact.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

And you mentioned Greenland. That's reared its head again. It certainly was an issue last year. Lot of activity and social media, big reactions from Danish and Greenlandic politicians. What are we looking at here? Could the US conceivably take over Greenland, meaning the end of NATO and the end of kind of European security as we know it?

Tobias Federico - Chief Analyst, Montel:

Yes, that's true. And it's, again we try to understand it quite rational or we try to understand the logic of Trump, but if you take it really simple, why not? It's a bit like a, we, I don't know if it's the English name in Germany we call it a game called risk.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

The same, same in English? Yeah,

Tobias Federico - Chief Analyst, Montel:

Okay. Same in English. So in the end, he's playing risk. Which means that he takes over Greenland now and that will be the end of Nato. I can't imagine really what that means, the European security aspects. It's hard. It's, I don't want to imagine what Russia then thinks or Putin thinks in that case, because then Europe would be in easy game, then we need to have a European treaty organization. Instead of a North Atlantic one, and it might well be that Trump then looks into partners, in the Pacific, which might be Japan, which is quite weak military wise, but also Australia. So that would be the end of the Nato. That would be at the end of this European security aspect. And it's not super unlikely, honestly.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

No, it's 'cause that's the sort of bedrock of the post-war kind of agreement here, or the setup. I studied international relations and, one of the key factors was, or one of the key theories was that democratic countries do not attack each other. And that's the bedrock of peace and stability. If we see that changing, this could upend a lot of what we know about and what we can expect to see on the global political arena. This is all kind of speculation, of course. And as you say, it's very unpredictable what can happen next in some senses, although there is a continuity there as well. There's a bit of both. At the same time what we've seen happening at the start of January has left, you know, Russia and Ukraine, a little bit of shadows. Russia's still attacking Ukraine's power infrastructure. Is there any talk of ceasefire and peace seems to ebbed away a little bit here, given that the focus has been on Venezuela.

Tobias Federico - Chief Analyst, Montel:

Of course. It's always on the political, global political landscape when things are happening. It's quite huge in the news. And we had the same with Israel and the Gaza Stripe and the Hamas with the Ukrainian war. Ukrainian war was in our attention for a while and then came the Hamas and Israel now comes Venezuela. But still, in the Ukraine we have this peace plan with, I dunno how many points are there right now, which are now on the Russian table, I think. Honestly looking into that ceasefire treaty, peace plan, whatever it is. I think Russia really doesn't take that too seriously, that ceasefire in a sense. I think they're playing the game of yeah. Yeah, let's talk a bit. But in the meantime, we will continue in advance in little steps. And of course, they're tracking the critical infrastructure in winter time. That is definitely crucial. I don't really think that Russia, it's looking into a ceasefire because they're weakening somehow. They have changed their economic behavior into a war economy. They somehow are not falling apart as we all have expected despite quite high losses. But of course, these numbers are always propaganda from the military side. Last year we also talked about is there a likelihood of it ceasefire, the peace in the Ukraine. And I think it has not really changed after one year. And it's something that we must imagine that we are coming down to the fifth year of this war. It started in 2022, so that is it's quite long war and, it's somehow it must prevent and end politically as every war ends politically. But I can't imagine the next year will ask me the same question again.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Most, most certainly. It's a very turbulent geopolitical situation at the moment. What are the key drivers here for the gas market, the global gas market in the next six months to a year.

Tobias Federico - Chief Analyst, Montel:

The we still have typical sweet spots which are or sweet spots, the typical hotspot when it comes to the global LNG market. And they're not gone away. Iran is another discussion when it comes from a strait of hormuz. The Houthis rebels still are there, even though they're not attacking quite a lot. But it could still happen. And of course all the maritime transportation routes are somehow affected and we should look into that. What will be interesting I think in this year is the behavior of China in general on the geopolitical landscape, not only connected to LNG and gas, but it has an aspect of LNG and gas as China is quite important to that. Also Russia, then trying to look into finding alternative transportation routes as sanctions and investigations on the shadow fleets are still going on. So that is something where on the gas market, we do expect some impacts, but that is not really super new. I think it's quite interesting how Europe, especially Germany is trying to understand how to play the global LNG market as we are mostly used from the market participants to have pipeline gas and to store quite a lot of gas into our quite big gas storage facilities here in Germany. But I think globally we will have the same tensions. It's a bit interesting what that's happening in the Caribbean. Especially now with the Venezuelan part. So that's the new thing. But in the end I think we will have the quite typical geopolitical hotspots going on. We have to look a bit into China and China's interaction with the global players especially now also with Taiwan. And that could be the year 2026, especially 2027 could be quite interesting. Yeah,

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

exactly. If we're talking about the spheres of influence, then certainly the question of Taiwan rears, it rears its heads quite visibly there Tobias, so yeah, as you mentioned as well the global gas market is fairly. The supply is not a concern at the moment anyway, should we say. But let's move on from geopolitics to another favorite topic of ours Tobias. And that's that's Germany and the German energy markets. It was 2025 was quite an eventful year. Let's look forward at 2026, but something quite key happened in the capital city Berlin at the start of January. What can you tell us what happened and the what is the significance of this event?

Tobias Federico - Chief Analyst, Montel:

What we had, and it was on the same day when Maduro has been catch up. We had a sabotage in Berlin, which was a fire from a far left radical group, I would call it. At least they clandestines have to be far left, and obviously they are. On a critical medium voltage cable from a power plant in Berlin, crossing a channel and that fire caused a quite big regional blackout for around about 50,000 households in the south west of Berlin. Two things here I hear quite interesting. First of all, the distribution grid and also the medium voltage grid is not really meshed with the public grid as a cause of the cold War as West Berlin. This is part of the former West Berlin was a power island, and in parts it still is. And especially in that distribution grid, there is no connection rather than to that specific power plant. That is one thing. So it was a sabotage on a fire. And the second thing is that still today, and it has happened on Saturday morning. And still today we have a blackout and it's quite likely to have power up again until Thursday, which would be the longest blackout we ever had in Berlin regional Blackout. We had most likely from the same group in September, the same type of attack in the southeast part of Berlin. Also a fire in a distribution transformation station, which caused the blackout for 45,000 households for 72 hours. So obviously critical infrastructure is under attack, whether it's a far left group or somehow inside information are needed. That was a big question mark, but looking into transparency and transparency maps, it's a bit of a no-brainer finding critical sweet spots with the transparency given on the power grid and the implications are somehow quite big for the, of course, the population as we have also four hospitals there. They have a power generator as a backup supply. But the area where the households are affected is mostly a quite rich area with single houses and people are really waiting here in their house during a cold snap. We are having minus 10, minus seven degrees centigrade right now because they're afraid of robberies. And especially in the first 24 hours, it was quite crucial because the mobile phone, which were not working, and now the mobile phones are working again. At least you can call for help. But still heating is not working. What's also quite interesting, and that's a curiosity we have certain streets and I drove through that because friends or family are affected also. I drove through that area and they have installed certain light islands they call it. So a power generation with just some lights to people to have light. But some streets still have the old street lighting based on natural gas. And they are, they were still running because it was not power. So they have not been changed into Power Street lighting. And then you can see how importants, especially in wintertime where we are having 16 hours of darkness to have some light during the night. Luckily we had snow and luckily we are having full moon, which means at night it's quite bright. But just imagine with not having a full moon that would've been really spooky and a bit, it is spooky, but again, critical infrastructure is attackable. And if this was a far left group with maybe not such a big brain, just imagine what a nation, which is quite good in hybrid warfare could do to Germany when critical infrastructure is very transparent. And you can find this on the web where the crucial transformer stations are.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

We don't wanna give anybody any ideas here Tobias, but I think this begs certain very important questions. And just a little side note to say that we are talking on Tuesday midday and Tuesday, and we expect to go out on Thursday which is when hopefully some of these people will have their power supply with turned, but what are they protesting against? What? Why? Why the sabotage is there? Is there a kind of a motive? What do they attack?

Tobias Federico - Chief Analyst, Montel:

Yeah. There was the letter and the motivation letter and I was able to read that letter and it's super weird, honestly. So they want to fight fossil fuels. They say that an exit out of fossil fuels is possible, and if it's not possible on a political level, then they have to do it in a different way, which is attacking fossil fire power plants. And the cable came out of a power station called Lichterfelde, which was running on natural gas and also providing CHP power plants, so also providing heat, and that is running on natural gas. So their motivation in the first step is exiting fossil fuel. The second motivation was that they wanted to attack, especially the rich area in Berlin, which is obviously the south west, where the blackout has happened. But a motivation is really driven by exiting fossil fuel.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

But as, as you said, this begs the question if a small radical group can do something like this, this much damage, the key power lines, the key distribution centers, substations, are these also then at risk from not just domestic insurgents or discontents, but also, people from malicious actors on the international arena?

Tobias Federico - Chief Analyst, Montel:

Well, they are, honestly, they are, and we cannot protect them. And that's a fact. We've seen this not on power lines, but in Germany on a communication line for the train system a year ago where the main communication line has been cut. That the trains could not communicate with each other, which is quite crucial for transportation security. But there was a backup line. Half an hour later, that backup line was also sabotaged. So obviously our infrastructure cannot be protected, and that's really a fact. And I think in Berlin it's a bit of a special situation because when, if we look into the transportation grid, for example we are having here certain redundancies. The N minus one approach. But if we have two critical failures, the N minus two failures as we had in Spain, for example, that could cause also from the transportation route a a blackout, a nationwide blackout.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

So to be sorry to interrupt, could you just explain to those listeners what is the N minus one and N minus? What's the difference?

Tobias Federico - Chief Analyst, Montel:

The N minus one, the N is the number of lines you are having, and minus one is of one, critical transportation line fails. You still have enough other lines which then gives you the enough security to make the supply. But if two lines are failing. Then it could happen. Must not happen. It could happen that you are not having enough transportation capacities to distribute the power, and that could cause a blackout or a brown out, depending on brownout is a certain area blackout is the whole nation. And obviously right now we are having a brown out on a distribution level, but for the people who are living there, for them, it doesn't make a big difference If they are affected and others not, they're affected and that's it. The problem is a bit, and I think here Berlin is a bit from a topographical level, a special case as usually to have this backup resilience in the power lines. You oversupply the grid with connections so you don't have only one crucial grid connection. You have several grid grid connections even in the distribution grid usually so that you can easily make a backup line. In Berlin, that was not really the case as Berlin during the World War, not during World War, after World War II, and it has been divided and we've constructed The wall was a power eyelid, so it was supplied like being an island even though it was not a physical island. And still we have some connections to the transportation grid, but the distribution grid is still connected to the former West Berlin border, so you still can see that. And they have not built any backup lines on the distribution grid level with the surrounding area, and that caused the effect. Let's phrase it this way. It's a bit easier to sabotage Berlin than other cities, but still on a distribution grid, usually you are not that mashed, and that's a bit easier.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

There's a few vulnerabilities there.

Tobias Federico - Chief Analyst, Montel:

Yeah, yeah.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Tobias, I also want to touch on some of the two big energy policy stories in Germany that we've discussed several times over the years. And one being that the power plant strategy here . Where do we stand there now, you know what's the current position and we likely to see five to 10 to 15 gigawatts of gas-fired capacity built over the next two to three years?

Tobias Federico - Chief Analyst, Montel:

Definitely not a 15 gigawatt over the next two years. But the power plant strategy sounds really big. I think the crucial question was a bit, and the new government, which was in place since February, 2025, they were planning quite a big reforming systems in general, so on the political level and also then also in the power level. And they had two measures taking in place in the autumn until wintertime. One was the power plant strategy. In the end, the question was a bit, do we need backup power plant capacities based on more or less fossil fuel and being ready maybe to use also hydrogen a bit later. And if we need those, how many do we need? And these were the two questions on the power plant strategy. And in the end, the discussions are always going around because I think the general political approach is let's be quite pragmatic, and I think it was quite pragmatic, but the population still has this idea, we can be 100% renewable and climate neutral until a certain day. And I think that's the open question. If we really believe in the green transition and if we really want to do that. We want to achieve this with fluctuating renewables and batteries. How can we handle these dunkelflautes we have seen quite a lot last year and until now we didn't have really a big dunkelflaute this wintertime. But nevertheless obviously during a dunkelflaute, we need conventional technology, power plants fired now with fossil fuels, maybe later on with hydrogen. But I think the resistance in the general population is quite big, not that big because having a blackout for example, then you can see it makes sense to have a conventional power plant. The discussion in the end was not if, but how much and how many natural gas, fire power plants do we need? And that's what's the question we are always getting. But are these 15 gigawatt, 20 gigawatt assumed enough or not? So they came up with a number, and that number was much lower than we've expected, which only meant that we are planning a phase out in lignite and in hardcore power plants, and that might be postponed a bit. So the power plant strategy, obviously in the first step was about how many gas power plants are we using, and the number was much lower than expected. And this, the second step then was really okay. If the number's that low and we see this from our modeling side, then we need to expand as at least the hard coal phase out which is supposed to be 2030, 2032. But in the end, we need to build up conventional gas fire power plants in the next five years, not in the next two years.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Exactly. And what's the configure? Is it 10 gigawatts?

Tobias Federico - Chief Analyst, Montel:

I think it was 10,

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

yeah.

Tobias Federico - Chief Analyst, Montel:

Which in several steps a bit more realistic steps, which I think building up 20 gigawatt of CCGT power plants within until 2030. That's not a German speed to build power plants to say it this way,

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

probably not any speed Tobias and I think. There are many questions I could put to you and I think there are lots of things to discuss, but, we're running out of time here, Tobias. But I think what maybe I would like to ask, what our listeners wants to get an update on is what's happening with the industrial power price in Germany. What's the situation as it stands? The government has finalized a price or a mechanism, and it's now, in discussions between Brussels and Berlin, is it not? Could you illuminate where we are and what the the process ahead looks like? Tobias.

Tobias Federico - Chief Analyst, Montel:

Here we have the danger that it's quite complicated in a sense, even though it sounds quite simple. The background is a bit that the German economy is struggling right now due to several reasons. But one reason was that the German economy was mostly based on quite cheap energy, we would say coming out of Russian gas. After the energy crisis, obviously that was not the case anymore, and one big promise of the current government was to introduce an industrial power price. That industrial power price was 5 cent per kilowatt hour. The pure energy, so 50 euro per megawatt hour, and they've set up this industrial price, but it comes under a lot of conditions. And it's for energy intensive industry. It cannot be combined with any other type of subsidies the industrials are getting, so only that or nothing else. And the price gap you are having between the 5 cent and the most likely price you are having while you're having standard procurement strategy. Looking into the power prices being around 80, 80 euro per megawatt hour, half of that money should be reinvested in that industry for energy saving mechanisms. And that list and the conditions and who falls under that conditions. That's quite complicated. And of course it's a subsidy somehow and needs the approval from the EU. So the discussions are still going around. The feedback we are getting from industrials that, for consultants it's quite good because it's a complicated thing. For the industry it's a type of a disappointment. It's not bad having that because only a certain, and the volume's limited. I'm not sure if it's 50% of the total volume or 80% of the total volume for the subsidy. But nevertheless, the volume is limited. The price comes under conditions that you, the money you save, you have to reinvest because then in the end, it's not 50 euro, which you are paying per megawatt hour. It's 50 euro plus an additional expense where you say but the idea was to have a subsidized lower industrial power price to keep our economic growth running. Now I need to have an additional project management, spend additional money under a situation where the German economy is not really running very well. It's not really super accepted by the industry, but that they take whatever they can take. But it's still, I'm going into discussion and it's quite complicated and I think even I could not solve this in this podcast.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Brilliant Tobias, I think, over the course of 2026, I'm sure we'll have you on several occasions to illuminate us on not just geopolitical, but also on these nitty gritty developments in Germany. There's certainly plenty happening in your domestic market, but once again, Tobias, pleasure having you on. Thank you very much for being a guest on the Plugged In - The Energy News podcast from Montel.

Tobias Federico - Chief Analyst, Montel:

Always a pleasure, Richard. Thanks a lot.

Richard Sverrisson - Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

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