Plugged In: the energy news podcast

Coal makes a comeback

Montel News Season 8 Episode 14

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0:00 | 31:30

In this episode of Plugged In, we turn to a topic we haven’t covered often; but one that’s rapidly moving back into the spotlight: coal.

As war in the Middle East disrupts LNG supply chains and drives gas prices sharply higher, European power markets are being forced to adapt. With gas-fired generation becoming increasingly expensive, coal is, at least temporarily, regaining economic relevance.

We’re now seeing early signs of increased coal imports, particularly in key markets like Germany, alongside shifting profitability dynamics between coal and gas-fired generation.

So is this just a short-term market reaction… or a more significant structural change? 

Richard  speaks to Toby Hassall, Lead Analyst at London Stock Exchange Group, and Firat Ergene, Lead Insight Analyst at Kpler, join the podcast to break down the data, covering fuel switching, regional demand, price dynamics, and what forward markets are signalling for winter and beyond. Setting the scene is our own Laurence Walker.  

Host: Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News

Guests:
Laurence Walker – Deputy Editor-in-Chief, Montel News
Toby Hassall – Lead Analyst, London Stock Exchange Group
Firat Ergene – Lead Insight Analyst, Kpler

Editor: Oscar Birk
Producer: Alexandra Carlon

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Hello listeners, and welcome to Plugged In - The Energy News podcast from Montel, where we bring you the latest news issues and changes happening in the energy sector. Now, coal is a topic we haven't covered very often on the podcast. But it's one that's becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. It's back in the headlines. It's driving market behaviour, and it's raising some pretty big questions about the direction of global energy. With war in the Middle East, disrupting gas markets and sending prices soaring, are we starting to see a shift? However, temporary away from the energy transition and more specifically is coal the fuel, many thought was on its way out, beginning to make a comeback. Today we're digging into what's really happening behind the headlines, looking at the economics, the market signals, and whether this is just a short term reaction or something more structural. So that's the scene. Early signs that coal, it's becoming more competitive, again, at least relative to gas with some companies in Europe already increasing imports and reconsidering how they generate power in the months ahead. But how far does this go and where are we actually seeing this shift play out? Now let's dig into the data, the original dynamics and what wholesale markets are really telling us. No, it's a great pleasure to be joined by Lawrence Walker, who's Deputy editor in chief at Montel News. Warm welcome back to the pod Laurie.

Laurence Walker – Deputy Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Thank you, Richard.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Crazy times, but I think we are here to talk about a possible comeback for coal. We are seeing, obviously gas prices are extremely high and the cost of generating electricity from gas also very high. But what's happening with coal? Is it making a comeback, Lori?

Laurence Walker – Deputy Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Certainly in theory it, it should be making something of a comeback. It's obviously early days. We're looking back at a, you know, a few weeks of war so far and near the impact. And so the, some of the data will only be able to see over the coming weeks. But initially we're seeing certainly increased imports of coal to Europe. I think we're looking at perhaps a four month high at the moment for March in terms of thermal coal imports and there certainly in terms of profitability the economics are looking a lot better for coal fired generation than they are for gas at present.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

This is obviously switching from gas fired to coal fired generation. Where is that possible now? And it's not possible everywhere in Europe, is it?

Laurence Walker – Deputy Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Well, no, we had the UK phased out all its coal a couple of years ago. Other countries have also been reducing their coal capacity, you know, to meet these green targets. So the phase out is still going ahead. In countries predominantly like Germany there is certainly some room to burn more coal. And I think if people can, they probably will be doing what, what they can. There've been some factors obviously we've had improved renewables, we've had some wind, we've had some solar other things which have contributed and perhaps made the impact on coal slightly less pronounced so far. But yes, I think in Germany we will, Italy last week approved keeping a couple of plants running as well. I think Southeast Europe we're seeing a bit more in Bulgaria, some other countries. So I think people will be at least thinking of using more coal even if they haven't to a massive extent yet.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

And obviously as you mentioned, we're in the, in the season for Sun, if you could call it that, where a solar power is certainly in the ascendancy, at least in the daylight hours. But it's the question of, that evening when the sun goes down, now what are forward prices indicating? We call it the profit margins for coal fire generation or the clean dark spreads versus those for gas fire generations, which are the clean spark spreads. Laurie?

Laurence Walker – Deputy Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Yes. If we look at the clean, dark spreads, which, you say, as you say, is the profits for burning coal to produce power. They're largely still slightly negative, but if you compare it to what we're seeing for gas, they are a lot more favourable. I mean we can look minus 20-25 or so for a for coal fire generation per megawatt hour, sorry, for gas, fire generation per megawatt per hour compared with just a few euros for coal. So if the incentive is there in that it's not as bad as gas. I think looking ahead, that's a similar picture certainly for the next couple of months.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Brilliant. Laurie, thanks very much for setting the scene for us for this week's episode on the potential of coal fire generation making a comeback. Thank you.

Laurence Walker – Deputy Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Thank you, Richard.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Now I'm very happy to be joined by two leading analysts who look at coal markets in particular. So Toby Hassall, lead analyst at the London Stock Exchange Group. Warm welcome to you.

Toby Hassall – Lead Analyst, London Stock Exchange Group:

Thank you, Richard. Good to be here.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

And Fırat Ergene, who's lead Insight analyst at Kepler. Warm. Welcome to you too Fırat.

Fırat Ergene – Lead Insight Analyst, Kpler:

Thank you, Richard.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

We're here to talk about potentially coal making a comeback in the European power mix in particular. So we've seen gas prices surge coal prices has also followed, but suddenly coal is making a comeback. Where is that the case? Where's that happening? Toby?

Toby Hassall – Lead Analyst, London Stock Exchange Group:

Richard, yes. That is a narrative that we have seen unfold over the past few weeks with the Middle East conflict disrupting LNG suppliers. So in, in Europe, as you mentioned, there has been some changes to the fundamental structure of the markets. So the, a large increase in TTF gas prices has led to sharply increased power generation costs from gas plants, which has led to some increases in the level of expected hard coal generation on the continent.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Okay, thanks Toby. I think we'll come back to that and say where in particular is happening. 'cause it's not the case across the board, but Fırat. Let's talk a little bit about the, obviously the cost for generating electricity with gas plants has gone up substantially. What about for coal? What's the profitability level at the moment for coal pipe fired plants in Europe? Does it vary?

Fırat Ergene – Lead Insight Analyst, Kpler:

On a demand perspective? I guess it's good to focus on Germany, which is the biggest importer of coal in Europe, and I think that's where most of the demand is going to come from in the coming months. In terms of profitability, despite the recent increase in power prices, the current implied margins for coal generation are still actually not profitable for the immediate short-term future because we are nearing summer season and Germany has quite a bit of renewable capacity which thrive in spring and summer season. So from a demand perspective, we are not actually looking at a high residual demand on the power mix because you have lots of renewables, so you have less reliance on thermal generations. So I think we are look in the negative territory for both like high efficiency coal plants and like low efficiency coal plants in Germany until the next winter season. But then if you look at the forward curve and do the mats for the implied margin for the term, then you get a steep increase in the clean dark spreads. And for the high efficient plus, you're possibly looking at around 25, 30 euro per megawatt hour as of today. It's very volatile. It change every day. But like both 40, 46% efficiency coal plants are in. Positive territory for the winter period of 20 26, 20 27.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Yeah. And that could obviously change if the war comes to an end potentially, but yes.

Fırat Ergene – Lead Insight Analyst, Kpler:

Yeah. Yes.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

So that's what that provides. Just before I go over to Toby, have you got any visibility about the lignite profitability of lignite plants? I mean, that's may, that's not openly traded in the market, but obviously that's something that's a resource that Germany relies on quite heavily to provide some of the baseline generation.

Fırat Ergene – Lead Insight Analyst, Kpler:

Yeah, like you said, you don't have too much transparency over their cost, but they are the lowest cost element of the German grid. So you are typically looking at eight to 10 gigawatt of very stable, reliable generation from Ignite. So in terms of competition, you are mainly looking at for the remainder of the balance from Ignite. So it's just a competition between Culver's Gas for the remaining balance, but we can assume they're profitable.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Absolutely. Toby, if I could come to you, obviously everything hinges on the war and how long the war will last. Do you, have you done any analysis on that in terms of how that changes the fuel switching that's going on?

Toby Hassall – Lead Analyst, London Stock Exchange Group:

Yes. So as you mentioned there, there of course is a large element of uncertainty about the magnitude and the duration of the conflict in the Middle East. But our power research team has undertaken quite, quite a detailed level of analysis about the potential magnitude of switching from gas to coal. And as, as Fırat mentioned through Q2, so through the next few months, April, may, June, there is upside for hard coal generation, albeit from a very low original expectation. So prior to the conflict, we were expecting less than 100,000 tonnes of coal burn in Germany for those three months. That's now increased to an expectation of around 1.5 million tonnes. So from quite a low original expectation there is an increase in expected coal burn. And of course we are watching metrics like the clean, dark spread, and of course the SRMCs as a guide to what we should expect.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

But these plants, these, they won't be running base load though, will they? They'll be coming in when the solar production dips off, for example. Is that something that you've done analysis on?

Toby Hassall – Lead Analyst, London Stock Exchange Group:

Yes. So the base load, just last week for example, hard coal clean duck. The clean duck spread was in negative territory. So we did see, a large advantage for coal on an SRMC basis, but that negative, clean, dark spread was a limiting factor. So yeah, we would expect that when renewable power generation is relatively low, that there would be an opportunity there for hard coal to increase its supply into the market.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

And do you share Fırat´s view on the sort of forward curves that sort of, when we're looking into Q4 and into the winter of 26, 27, that's when har coal really comes into the money.

Toby Hassall – Lead Analyst, London Stock Exchange Group:

On a seasonal basis, yes. That would be the expectation. Of course, looking out to the next winter carries Yeah. Significant uncertainty due to the trajectory of the conflict in, in the Middle East. But in a scenario where LNG supplies remain very disrupted. LNG prices are very high as they are today or even higher. Yes, we would see hard coal generation much stronger than we would've expected just five, six weeks ago. Yep.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Yeah, absolutely. That's the reality. And they're not just very high, but also extremely volatile and a lot is hinging on what President Trump is putting out on social media. I see. Generally but Fırat, can you talk us through a little bit what's about the prices of hard coal what's happened, have they followed gas? What's happening both on a more, on a spot and a on a forward level?

Fırat Ergene – Lead Insight Analyst, Kpler:

I mean if you look at the performance of coal versus gas since the beginning of the conflict, I mean as of this week, so coal was underperforming gas. So like gas, the price of gas has gone up to a greater extent than coal. And I think that's because of the kind of limitation on the demand side. So Europe isn't functioning with a very large coal demand potential because you get a cap basically on how much they can burn because the available coal fire capacity isn't substantial. So you even at the peak demand season, you're looking at like somewhere slightly below 10 gigs in Germany, which has the largest potential in Europe. And in Netherlands, Italy, you don't have available capacity, like more than a few gigawatts. So I think that's the main reason why coal hasn't overperformed Gas. The main reason, I think the other main reason is that from the supply side, so last year coal market was actually in our supply situation and in the Atlantic Basin, the market was expecting some supply cuts, which hasn't materialised. So on the supply side, I think there's enough call to basically meet the potential, you know, higher demand. So it's balances each other out. So like on the gas side, you have multiple factors supporting demand, which I think is driving the price. So you have very low gas inventories in Europe right now. And also we see one of the largest energy facilities aren't exporting LNG into the market, but on coal side is relatively stable.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

And these, this, the coal supply is coming from the stan, like Columbia, South Africa, Australia

Fırat Ergene – Lead Insight Analyst, Kpler:

and yeah. And the US Yeah.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

And the US of course, the US is one of the major export and, Toby. Fırat mentioned Germany initially and then also Italy and the Netherlands. Are those countries, the main countries that have the possibility to switch to coal fired generation, or are there others as well that you are looking at?

Toby Hassall – Lead Analyst, London Stock Exchange Group:

I guess the focus of our discussion today so far has been Europe. But of course the coal market, the seaborne coal market is global. And another region which has been affected is the Asia region. So countries such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, have a significant exposure to LNG markets with LNG feeding their gas power plants. Those markets we are also expecting some fuel switching from gas to coal. Fundamental setup of those markets quite different from Europe insofar as Europe has quite a high carbon price. Whereas in Northeast Asia, those markets less affected by carbon pricing. But we had forecast that just going back five or six weeks ago, we had forecasts that this year would see some switching from coal towards gas. Now that has changed. That outlook has changed quite significantly, and in fact, we're now expecting switching from gas to coal. Now, the other important point to get to, maybe we can come to that if we have time, is which countries will the coal be supplied from to those Northeast Asian markets. So there's a bit more of a spread including perhaps Russian coal as well coming into the supply mix.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

That's very interesting. I I'd like to focus primarily on Europe in the discussion today. 'cause that's, that's the focus of the podcast in a sense. But, this is very interesting. Also, you've seen countries probably like Vietnam, Philippines these kinda countries also burning or turning to coal amid these very high gas prices. But Toby, are those, are we, when we're talking to Europe, talking about Europe, is it, are we're mainly focusing on Germany, obviously, which has a huge amount of coal fired capacity. But Netherlands, Italy and are there others, Poland, for example? That are also, they've maybe not making the switch from gas to coal, but they're just sticking with their coal fire generation.

Toby Hassall – Lead Analyst, London Stock Exchange Group:

I think our power research team would probably have greater insights that they could give you on that. But yes, certainly Germany is a key important market within Europe. We have seen news, I think it was just in the last couple of days, that Italy is looking to extend the operation of some coal plants and I think the coal phase out. Plan for Germany is subject to revision now, given the the disruption that we're seeing in energy markets.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Yeah. Do you share that view Fırat that those are the prime markets for coal in Europe?

Fırat Ergene – Lead Insight Analyst, Kpler:

Yeah, I agree. What I would add on to what Toby already shared is for Poland is the demand is quite seasonal, so you are mainly looking at winter periods. So because their domestic production is actually, is sufficient to meet of like the spring and summer season demand. So they are looking to import more supply in the winter period. 'cause the main use of cold days is for the like combined heat generation plants.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Yep. Interesting. Do you think that they, this is just a short term move, or do you expect this to last sort of into 2027 and beyond Fırat, this switch took to coal?

Fırat Ergene – Lead Insight Analyst, Kpler:

Yeah, I think, as an analyst, sometimes we get lost too much on field switching and dark space, so it's important to, clarify that at the end of the day, it depends on whether the market thinks there's demand certainty for coal. Obviously now there are margins and if people are convinced that coal is going to be profitable, then gas, and if the margin is going to be positive, then it could move beyond the, current, foreseeable future. But given the current volatile environment, I'm not sure if end users are actively looking for cargoes or looking for like term supplies beyond the immediate feature now.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Toby, you mentioned that, you expected coal imports in Germany to be a hundred before the conflict started, or five, six weeks ago to be a hundred thousand tonnes. And now you're saying it's a million and a half. What's your view for the rest of the year?

Toby Hassall – Lead Analyst, London Stock Exchange Group:

Well, yeah I think that forecast for power sector, coal consumption in Germany, I mean, it's an interesting delta that one. So you're going from almost nothing in Q2 to something just under 100 tons to 1,5 million tons. At a global level, one and a half million tonnes in a quarter, that's not a particularly huge quantum of coal compared to, say, imports into Japan or South Korea. So the, yes, the market can supply that additional tonnage without tightening coal markets too much. Hence, coal prices have increased, but not to the extent of LNG prices. So looking ahead through the rest of this year, of course we will see that, we will see that that seasonal increase in renewable generation in Europe through summer, which will reduce the residual demand that, that coal could potentially fill. But then as we approach those winter months later in the year, yeah. Let's see if LNG prices and TTF prices remain, remain high. And if they do, there certainly will be scoped for much higher hard coal generation and imports than we would've expected just five or six weeks ago.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

That's, do you then, do you also share Fırat´s view that the market is generally well supplied but what are the, how the dynamics with increase demand in Northeast Asia plus more coming from Europe, is that gonna tighten supply and also drive prices upwards? Toby?

Toby Hassall – Lead Analyst, London Stock Exchange Group:

Sure. Yeah. Great. Great question. I guess the impact that we've seen for coal markets the rally in prices, nothing like what we saw back in 2022. So yes, there has been a substantial increase. Demand prospects have increased, but as Fırat mentioned, coal markets were relatively well supplied prior to this. We're also entering the shoulder season for the Northern Hemisphere markets, spring temperatures. Reduced cooling demand, sorry, heating demand, I should say. So the market was quite well supplied and therefore has been able to deliver that increase in deliver into that increased demand environment. Now, as we come into the summer period, particularly in Northeast Asia, we see a ramp up in, in hard coal generation on a seasonal basis with that cooling demand coming through now, that is when we could start to see coal markets looking, looking much tighter than they are currently. In that situation, we could see some supplier response coming from countries like Russia, from the US, Columbia as well. There, there was some supply cuts at Glencore's carriage on mine last year. Also, a reduction in production, a reduction in output by by Drummond as well. So there, there's some capacity that could come back into the market there. There is also some scope for some lower grade metallurgical coals to be diverted into thermal markets. So that's something that we monitor as well. And, but generally speaking, it's there, there's not going, there's not going to be a shortage of thermal coal. The market will be able to respond to this increase in demand,

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Fırat. So what's your view here?

Fırat Ergene – Lead Insight Analyst, Kpler:

I think, Toby is giving very good point comparing it with the crisis in 2022, and that's something I fall back to when I need to see like what are the possible scenarios here. I think another key aspect where why the market is in a better position to adjust additional demand is because it's different in the shape that the trade flows needed to be reshaped in the crisis of 2022. So from a, if you're looking at the Atlantic Basin, you had Europe, Turkey, and Morocco, which are the main demand hubs. And you basically needed to, they all needed to basically switch the main origin. So like in Turkey, you had Columbia, which was the main supplier in Morocco, you had Russia, which was the main supplier, and obviously Russia was supplying Europe too. But after the sanctions on Russian supply, so you basically had a full reshuffle, and then Russia became Turkey's largest supplier. And then it basically lost access to Moroccan and European markets. But the problem at the time was most of the Colombian supply was already contracted to Turkey. So this also created some additional stress on the supply side, especially on the immediate spot mark 'cause there wasn't enough coal to be made available to European buyers. So given that this like demand and supply balances, that you don't need so much of a change in the origin, like the demand supply balance at current conditions. I think that's one of the reasons why we are not looking at a very, pessimistic scenario in terms of supply availability.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Yep. It raises a number of fascinating issues and questions here. I think they, what we're seeing here in the global dynamics we're seeing, increased dependency on one fuel on gas, which then is obviously driving increased into coal and that what that's doing for the environment, for the climate, potentially in terms of gonna increase European emissions. But for Russian coal, that's you're saying here guys that there could be an increased in coal supplies from Russia. Is that likely then, is that something you are, that's gonna come onto the, into the global into global market? Fırat,

Fırat Ergene – Lead Insight Analyst, Kpler:

On the Atlantic basis you don't have too much upside because for the buyers of Russian coal in the Mediterranean, there's not much scope for Russian coal to gain more market share. They're already maxed out their potential. But in Asia, yeah, I think there's potential there. Toby also mentioned the potential switch in Japan, Korea, Taiwan. Obviously not Japan, but for South Korea and Taiwan, I think there's some potential for Russian coal to come into play and also for China too.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Do you share that view, Toby, that there's gonna be more Russian coal coming into specifically Northeast Asia?

Toby Hassall – Lead Analyst, London Stock Exchange Group:

Yes, I think, yeah that I agree with Fırat´s point about the Atlantic basin conditions, but yeah, certainly when it comes to markets such as South Korea, which does not have an explicit formal ban or restriction on imports of Russian coal. Now we would expect that, that South Korea may increase its purchases of Russian thermal coal. It did a similar thing in summer last year when there was quite a tightness of supply coming out of Australia due to some weather issues in Australia at the time. So South Korea tapped the Russian thermal coal supply. And so we might expect a similar arrangement. South Korea will use Russian coal to, to meet some of that increase in demand through the summer period.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

And do you expect any of that to slip through into Europe despite the sanctions?

Toby Hassall – Lead Analyst, London Stock Exchange Group:

I very much doubt that. I think we, we have seen Kazakhstan become a more prominent supplier of thermal coal into the EU and I think last year there were some restrictions that were revised to, to allow coal from Kazakhstan, but exported through Russian ports to be permitted for import into the EU. So I would expect that the EU will remain quite firm in their restrictions on imports of Russian coal.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Yeah, we'll see how that's maybe a topic for another podcast anyway, how, maybe how Russian coal could eventually slip in. But I just a final question really, guys. Do you think this comeback of coal, old king coal, if you like is it a short term reaction to what's happening in the Gulf or could it, mark, could there be a little structural change here? Fırat if I start with you.

Fırat Ergene – Lead Insight Analyst, Kpler:

Maybe I'm a bit biassed here, but. Coal is obviously the cheapest form of energy and like in any kind of, social organisation, civilization, you need areas to fall back to if there's a force, majority shield like they're having now. So in a long-term perspective I don't think phasing out coal is really realistic because you never know what's going to happen on other front. So like the more diversified you are, and this also applies to renewables and nuclear as well, I think you're in a better position to, serve the society's needs. So I think ideally in the long term coal, things should be a part of the generation mix.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

I think there are many who would disagree with you for, and who would maybe would say that the solar power and wind are substantially cheaper than coal, especially for the environmental costs. But absolutely. I take your point. Toby, what's your view?

Toby Hassall – Lead Analyst, London Stock Exchange Group:

I think Fırat´s points are very valid. However, another way to look at this, the impact of this current conflict and the disruption on markets is that this will actually accelerate the energy transition. You will see countries respond by accelerating their deployment of renewable power, maybe reviewing their stance on nuclear power, as we've seen in Taiwan with plans submitted to restart one of their reactors. And Japan, of course has scope to, to restart more of its nuclear fleet. So I think there will be more pragmatism coming into policy in relation to energy mix. But not necessarily at the expense of less aggressive carbon emissions reductions targets. So I think there's, yeah, there there's a way to, to view the current disruptions as something that will accelerate the energy transition.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

Yeah, I think that's a very kind of positive spin on that. That's a good place to end I think. Toby, thank you very much for that. I think also we're seeing some, some noises generally from the German energy minister as well, regarding nuclear and maybe admitting that it was a mistake to decommission all those nuclear plants, especially given the current crisis. That's for a topic, for another podcast, another day. I think so Fırat And Toby, thank you very much for being guests on the Plugged In podcast.

Toby Hassall – Lead Analyst, London Stock Exchange Group:

Thank you very much. Thanks.

Fırat Ergene – Lead Insight Analyst, Kpler:

Thank you.

Richard Sverrisson – Editor-in-Chief, Montel News:

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