Mid-Year Money & Markets: What Matters, What Doesn't, and What To Do Next

We're halfway through the year, and it's been anything but boring.

War headlines. Oil spikes. Inflation fears. A new Fed Chair. The SpaceX IPO. AI mania.

But what does any of it actually mean for your money?

In this episode of Women, Wealth & What Matters, Tracy Byrnes breaks down the biggest stories of the year so far and explains what investors should be paying attention to, what they can safely ignore, and how to navigate the second half of the year with confidence.

You'll learn:

·      Why markets often rise despite scary headlines

·      How oil prices impact your wallet

·      What the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the Fed mean for interest rates

·      The real lesson behind the SpaceX IPO

·      Why investor behavior may be the biggest risk of all

Plus, a simple mid-year financial checklist to help you stay on track.

Because successful investing isn't about predicting the future.

It's about being prepared for it.

Hosted by Tracy Byrnes, MBA, CDFA
Vice President, Women & Investing, Lebenthal Global Advisors

If you've got a question, a topic suggestion, or just want to say hi, shoot us an email at TracyByrnesWealth@gmail.com!

Follow us on:

X: @TracyByrnes
Instagram: @TracyByrnesWealth

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:03

Hey everybody, welcome back to Women, Wealth, and What Matters. I'm Tracy Burns, MBA, Certified Divorce Financial Analyst, Vice President of Women and Investing at Labenthal Global Advisors, former business reporter, more importantly, single mom of three fabulous kids, and your guide to making money a little less intimidating these days and definitely a lot more approachable. All right, so each week on this podcast, we break down the financial topics that affect your life, your family, and your future, all in plain English. No jargon, no Wall Street speak, just practical information that can help make you make smarter financial decisions. Before we get into today's topic, which actually I'm really excited about, please make sure you go back and listen to some of our previous episodes. Five things you need to know about that Roth IRA. Everyone talks about it, everyone thinks you should be converting your IRA. Is that true? You gotta go listen. Five things every college grad should know. That was very fun to do, and actually saddens me that I even needed to do it because we're not teaching our kids this stuff. And of course, my favorite five ways to stay calm when the headlines get loud. Okay, so somehow we are already halfway through the year. It is crazy, and what a year it's been, baby. We've had war headlines, oil spikes, inflation scares, we have a new Fed chair, we had the biggest IPO in years just happen. Our artificial intelligence is continuing to reshape industries, the economy, everything. And of course, we've had enough market volatility to make investors question whether they should check their accounts at all or take dramamine in some cases. So today I want to do something a little different. This isn't a mid-year review. That's what plenty of people are gonna start doing. Lots of people are gonna tell you how the SP did up until now, all that nonsense. I want to talk to you about what happened, why it matters, and believe it or not, what actually doesn't matter as much as people think. Most importantly, what you should do. If anything, because you know me, sometimes I think you should do absolutely nothing but go watch the food channel. The food network, that is. Okay, so Wall Street, Washington, halfway around the world, you name it, stuff's been going on everywhere. And all these things determine how you're going to respond, how your accounts should respond. So let's dive in and make some smart decisions. Now, let's call us fade to spade. The headlines were actually terrifying some days. They were bananas. But at the end of the day, the market did not give a damn. It just didn't. Get a little bump here and there, and then it kept on going. This is probably one of the biggest investing lessons from the first half of the year. If I had told you back in January that we'd spend the first half of the year talking about conflict in the Middle East, oil shocks, inflation, tariffs, political uncertainty, a new Fed share, and wow, the world's largest uh IPO, what would you have guessed the stock market would have done? To me, it would have sounded like if we've fallen off a cliff, right? Most people would have guessed lower, much lower. And yet the markets continue to do what they do. They look forward and march the heck on. As long as the underlinings are okay. Well, she looks at particular things, they block out the noise. I tell you, it's a lesson for all of us. All of us, right? For every teenager on social media, block out the noise. One of the most important things investors need to understand is that the stock market is not a scoreboard for today's news. It's not. Let me say that again. The stock market is not a scoreboard for today's news. It's actually more of a prediction machine. It's more like, okay, I got it. It happened today, but how's that going to affect us down the road? It's not asking how bad it is it today. It's going to ask what does tomorrow look like? That's why stocks often recover way before the economy does. That's why markets can rise during periods when headlines are still totally negative. And that's why investors who react emotionally to every news cycle often end up hurting themselves. One of the biggest mistakes investors make is confusing news with investment strategy. The news exists to inform, it often exists to excite the hell out of you, too. Good and bad. But it doesn't exist to tell you what to do with your portfolio. I've said this before, I've spent years in TV covering markets. And if there's one thing I learned, it's that scary headlines get attention. Sex sells, so does fear. So if I'm in the media, my headlines are big, bold, scary. Take a breath. I told you, watch the Food Network, learn how to make a new pasta sauce. Intention and investment success are not the same thing. Think back to all the things investors were worried about six months ago. How many of those worries are still on the front page? Actually, in for context, today is June 22nd, 2026, the front page of the paper today. Tour Toy Story 5, like rocked the box office. That's what we're talking about today, by the way. Let's put things in perspective. The news cycle moves on, finds bigger, shinier things to talk about. Market moves on. Long-term investors need to move on to stay the course. If you have a plan, stick to the plan. That is why sometimes you need an outside person, like an advisor or a financial planner or somebody to make those decisions for you. Remove the emotion because the emotion is huge, thanks to the headlines. Okay, number two, oil is not just about gas prices. And let's talk about oil for a second. Most people hear that oil prices are rising and think, oh, geez, gas prices are gonna go up too. Yes, that's part of the story. But remember, oil impacts way more than what you pay at the pump. It affects your airline ticket, your shipping costs, manufacturing, packaging, don't forget, packaging, groceries, inflation, and ultimately interest rates, right? Think about the food in your grocery store. It has to be grown, transported, packaged, delivered. Every step along the way uses energy. When energy becomes more expensive, like literally, you gotta put something in the tractor to make it move. When energy becomes more expensive, businesses often, I'm gonna do often in air quotes, pass those costs to the consumer. That's why economists watch oil so dang closely. That's why investors pay so much attention to developments involving Iran, the broader Middle East. We may or may not have a deal on the table now, full contacts, I don't know. One of the questions I still get though is why do gas prices go up overnight but seem to take forever to come back down? And I get that, because it's annoying as heck. So let's talk about this. When oil prices spike, everyone knows that next tanker of gasoline is going to cost more. So gas stations quickly raise prices to prepare to be able to purchase the more expensive gas, right? So they're preparing for the higher replacement costs. Okay. So they raise prices quickly because they're like, shoot, that next tanker is gonna cost me more. I gotta find, I gotta pay for it. How am I gonna do it? I'm gonna charge you, the consumer. Now, when oil prices fall, though, stations don't immediately pass that savings along because they're still selling the expensive stuff that they purchased at a higher price. And the gas stations that overbought are in a bigger quagmara because they're like now, they're saying, geez, I gotta lower, but I can't. How am I gonna break even? So that's why it feels unbalanced. The gas station filled its tank last week when oil, well, last month I should say, when oil's at $90 a barrel, it can't suddenly sell that as if it was only $70 a barrel because the gas station will shut its doors. So the station has to work through the more expensive inventory first. That's why those price increases tend to show up really fast and then feel like a slow drip to get out. It's annoying. I get it. Relief takes a little longer, it's frustrating, but sadly, that is how it works. As we move into the second half of the year, investors will continue to watch oil because it's more than an energy story. You know it's an inflation story, and inflation affects everything. It is coming down now. We'll see what happens. All right, number three, speaking of inflation, the Fed is still running your wallet. Most people don't wake up thinking about the Federal Reserve. I am a nerd, I do. Sometimes I think you should, though, because whether you realize it or not, the Fed impacts your financial life almost every day. Your mortgage rates, your credit card rates, your car loans, your equity lines, savings accounts, CDs, money market funds, all of them influenced by interest rates. One of the biggest stories of the first half of a year was the arrival of our new Fed Federal Reserve chairman, Kevin Walsh, who replaced Jerome Powell. At one point, I think I actually said out loud that I would rather clean sewers than be the Fed chair because the Fed chair has gotten so much heat from the president, Jerome Powell, that is, to lower rates. But the chair can't lower rates just because the president is screaming really loud. The chair has to lower rates based on the data presented. Kevin Walsh now, new guy in town. And unless you're a market nerd like I am, you don't even know who the guy is. And that's okay. But what not it doesn't matter necessarily who he is, it matters what he is supposed to do. Warsh previously served as a Fed Reserve governor during the financial crisis. He spent years in banking, so he's got the resume. He understands Wall Street monetary policy. The biggest question for the market right now is how aggressive will he be in fighting inflation? Basically, will he lower rates? Or, dare I say, there's a lot of talk out there about raising them. And that is like voodoo right now. Don't say that. Like they're gonna bring out the dolls with the pins and start hitting them up. If inflation remains stubborn, the Fed, I can't even say it out loud, may decide to keep rates where they are for longer or worse, raise them. This is too tough on borrowers. This is clearly better for savers, but it is bad for the psyche, if you ask me. For years, people earned virtually nothing on their savings accounts, so I get it. Higher rates, good for savers, good for seniors. But people are finally getting to a place we need the housing market to keep going. Higher rates mean more expensive mortgages, more expensive credit cards, more expensive borrowing, and that cripples the economy. But you need the data to prove otherwise. Oil coming down, inflation will come down, who knows? As we move into the second half of the years, uh second half of the year, I should say, investors will absolutely be listening carefully for clues about Walsh. What he thinks, what he says. It's like when Taylor Swift drops those little eggs on her Swifties. I feel like it's we're we're like the same dorky-ness on the Fed side. What does Warsh think? Does he believe inflation is under control? Will rates stay elevated longer? Does he want to bring them down? Remember, when the Fed speaks, your mortgage listens, your credit card listens, your savings accounts listen, and of course, your investment portfolio listens loud and clear. Speaking of investing, SpaceX IPO. I don't know if if you if you're not following if you're not following the markets, I get it. This is Elon Musk's company, SpaceX. It had an initial public offering. This IPO taught us something way bigger than all the things we've learned thus far. This is the biggest investing story of the year. The IPO generated so much excitement. First of all, he's talking about taking us to Mars. I mean, as a kid, as a kid from the 70s, that's really cool. First, let's find an IPO, an initial public offering, is when a private company becomes publicly traded or basically allows investors to buy shares on the stock market for the first time. So I have this private company, I created this big thing. Now I'm saying to myself, I want to let the investing public in. He's also saying he needs some money, which maybe he does because there were a bunch of losses over the course of the last few years. Because when you issue stock, you take in money as a company, but now you have outside owners. So now we have so many people who are outside owners in this company. The excitement around SpaceX IPO is way more than access to the stock. It's fascinating to me, actually. It's changing the way we think about space, communications, technology. But I think the real story is what uh is more about what it revealed about investors. People are hungry for growth, innovation, the next big thing, this notion, people my age, that is, that we can go to Mars. Like that was a thing when I was a kid. Everybody wanted to be an astronaut. Nobody wants to be an astronaut anymore. Well, we've seen some cool things with AI, we've seen it with the private markets, venture capital, all that stuff. But now we've really seen it with SpaceX. Like it ignited that like, this is cool, flame in you. Innovation matters, technology matters, growth matters. But investors also need to ask themselves important questions. Am I investing or am I chasing? This is where we are now with SpaceX. Am I investing in a did I put my hard-earned money in a company that's gonna make money, or is it just really cool and sexy? And I get to tell people at cocktail parties that I own SpaceX. I'm giving you time to think about that. They're two very different things. Investing is thoughtful, it's disciplined, it fits with a broader financial plan. I get you want to own SpaceX because it's really super cool, but don't chase it because it's an emotional thing. Chasing out of fear is wrong. Emotional investing rarely ends well. I mean, look, you're emotional about anything, it really ends well. One company should never determine your financial future. So do not put all your eggs in the SpaceX basket or a rocket, whatever you want. Keep your portfolio diversified. You want to put some money in this thing, and you believe in Elon Musk and that he's gonna make it to Mars, maybe not today, maybe in five years, that's great. This lesson applies to everything. We're talking about SpaceX, Apple, Nvidia. Whatever hot stock comes next, keep yourself diversified. And I'm gonna make a statement here. I actually think SpaceX is going to be the next NVIDIA. Everybody wanted to own NVIDIA at one point. Eventually, it's gonna be everybody wants to own SpaceX. Okay, lastly, the biggest risk of the second half of the year is not the market. This might surprise you. It is you. You are the biggest risk to yourself. I don't think the biggest risk is oil or inflation or Iran or the Fed. It's investor behavior. People sitting in cash waiting for this perfect opportunity to get back in. Do you know what you missed all year long? People that did not want to be in because of the war, because of tariffs, or because of pick a thing. They missed it. Markets at an all-time high. Panic selling after scary headline. Also, please, I beg you, I beg you, before you hit sell, sell, sell, please just call me. Let me walk you off the ledge. Just call me. You know how to find me. I'm gonna tell you all the places too. Do not panic sell. Do not concentrate your money in one stock. Do not try to predict this market's every move. I will tell you historically, it marches up, but I can't tell you what it's gonna do in an hour. I can't tell you what it's gonna do tomorrow. And if somebody says they can, they're big fat liars. I got a bridge to sell you if that's true. The biggest mistakes people make are self-inflicted. And there's one more thing we're gonna watch, though, before that, as this year goes on, and I have to say it, I don't want to, because I am apolitical, but politics will make its way into this midterm, uh, into this market because of the midterm elections. Whether you love it or hate it or don't, your skin crawls when we talk about it, which mine does lately, by the way. Election cycles tend to create uncertainty. Investors start worrying about taxes, government spending, regulation, all these things. We start talking about the debt. It's so funny how the our federal debt like comes in and out. Some days it's like we're gonna die, and then other days, like no one even gives a damn about it. It's the weirdest thing, right? It's again headline driven, when there's nothing else to talk about, we go back to all these old stories. You have tariffs, we'll come back to the table, economic policy. The cool part that we're from where I sit is all this uncertainty creates volatility, which creates opportunity. This is why people like me and all the fabulous people I work for, we kind of live for this stuff because if there is a stock that you've been wanting to get into, or there is our positions we've been wanting to move or create or do something, the volatility opens the door to it. Volatility is not the same as risk, by the way. Very different. Periods of volatility, like I said, have created opportunities for long-term investors. Not guarantees, not predictions, opportunities. That's it. But when investors become emotional, prices can sometimes disconnect from the fundamentals. When people say, I don't want to own Elon Musk because I don't like him. I don't really care about Elon Musk. If his stock is going to make my clients money, guess who's owning it? You have to take, you gotta take the emotion out of this stuff. Leave the emotion for your family and friends, not for your portfolio. Experienced investors don't necessarily fear volatility. They prepare for it. And like I said, some of us actually like it. They use it as an opportunity for cash to work when others are panicking. One of my favorite reminders during election years is this the market does not care who you voted for. Let me say that one more time. The market does not care who you voted for and who you vote for, I should say. The market is a political, could care less. Doesn't give a damn who sits in the oval. It cares about earnings, it cares about interest rates. And granted, all that stuff is affected by the person in the oval. It cares way more about innovation. Economic growth, ultimately, that's what drives long uh-term returns. And that is why the first half of the year, we we did better than we thought because we had innovation, economic growth, great earnings. We had a consumer that didn't want to quit. God bless you all for getting out there and spending, by the way. Nobody cares at the end of the day. I shouldn't say nobody. The market doesn't care nearly as much as you think about the political nonsense. All right, I got a little checklist for you before the rest of the year gets away. I'm sorry, I have to, it's my fiduciary duty. June 30th, year, mid-year. Ask yourself these questions. Have I increased my retirement contributions? Am I getting my full company match? Hello, young people. Have I reviewed my beneficiaries? Divorced people in particular. If you divorced and your ex is still your beneficiary, shame on you. Do I have enough emergency savings? I know this one is scary. Have I looked at my credit report? I know, I know. Am I diversified? Do I have a financial plan? And lastly, my favorite, have I met with my financial advisor yet this year? Come on now. We did a whole podcast on using your tax return as a planning tool. Have you reviewed your tax situation? June 30th is a really good time of year to figure out where you are tax-wise. Do you have gains? Do you have losses? Are you selling your home before the end of the year? Getting divorced before the end of the year. If the answer to any of these questions is no, it is fine. It's only mid-year. You got time. Make some adjustments. Don't blow this stuff off. Small changes today can create way more meaningful results later. Okay. Intimation. Headlines were scary. Market didn't care. Oil still matters. Fed impacts your wallet. The SpaceX story was way bigger than SpaceX. And the biggest risk may not be the market at all. It will probably be your own behavior. First half of the year reminded us something important. There will always be another headline, another crisis, another war. Dare I say, another Fed meeting, another election, or another reason to be nervous. The goal isn't to predict what's next. The goal is to build a financial plan that will survive whatever comes next. Teflon. Financial success. I told you, I said this before, it's not about being perfect. It's about just getting started one smart decision at a time. I loved this. Okay, share this with someone who needs to hear it. Or listen to it again if you need to hear it again. You can find us on Spotify, Apple, Podcasts, Amazon Music, and of course YouTube. And if you want to continue the conversation, you can find me all over the place. TracyBurnsWealth.com, at TracyBurns on X, at TracyBurns on LinkedIn, and at TracyBurnsWealth on Insta. If you need me, I am here for you always. See you next time. Labenthal Financial Services, Inc. is a FINRA registered broker dealer. The content of this podcast is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investment advice. The views expressed in this podcast are subject to change based on market and other conditions. Information about the qualifications and business practices of Labenthal Global Advisors LLC is available on the SEC's website at www.advisorinfo.sec.gov. Information about the qualifications and business practices of Labenthal Financial Services Inc. and its representatives can be found on FINRA's broker check website, which is brokercheck.finra.org.