Episode 23 — Oscar Predictions: Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

In this Episode of Movies I Give a Fork About, A J breaks down the nominees for Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role at this year’s Academy Awards.

From subtle, emotionally layered performances to bold and transformative character work, this category features some of the most compelling acting of the year.

AJ revisits each performance, highlights what worked, and examines the themes and choices that made these roles stand out.

Then it comes down to the predictions:

Who will win, who should win, and who could pull off the upset on Oscar night.

If you’ve been following along with the show’s awards season coverage, this episode pulls together the final thoughts before the envelopes are opened.

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Hosted by AJ Jones, this podcast cuts through hype, marketing, and awards buzz to answer one simple question:

Is this movie actually worth your time?

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Welcome to Movies I Give a Fork About, the podcast where we don't use stars, we use forks. Because not every movie deserves your time, not every movie earns your emotion, but when one truly does, that's when you give a fork. I'm AJ, and today's episode is the Oscar Predictions for Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role. There are five nominees this year, and if you've been listening to the podcast, you'll know I've already reviewed all of the films and performances, so I'm going to give you some quick thoughts on each before getting to my predictions. First up we have Elle Fanning. For me, this was a solid nomination, but not necessarily an outstanding one. Fanning portrays a Hollywood actress seeking artistic validation, someone determined to avoid the cliche of being dismissed as a silly actress. There's a key monologue in the film that serves as a pivotal moment where her character attempts to prove her artistic depth to the audience. Now, admittedly, Fanning walks a delicate line in that scene, slightly off balance, but it is still compelling. It is a sensitive meta performance about career pressures and artistic insecurity, but for me, it didn't quite rise to the level of a truly standout supporting performance. Next, we've got Inga Ib's daughter Lilias. I can definitely see why she has been nominated here. Her performance is subtle and incredibly nuanced. As the stable sister in a fractured family, she relies on micro gestures and small emotional shifts to communicate the character's internalized pain. She avoids big emotional outbursts and instead focuses on the body's response to emotion, like quiet tension, restraint, and suppressed pain. She brings a calm, steady presence to the ensemble, and that realism is exactly what makes her performance so beautiful. Next, Amy Madigan. As I've said before on this podcast, I fucking hate horror movies. So watching Weapons directed by Zack Kregger was not my idea of a good time. But since Madigan was nominated in this category, I gave it a shot, and I have to admit her performance is easily the most striking element of the film. Her character, Aunt Gladys, initially appears almost sickly sweet and harmless, but with something deeply unsettling under the surface. And her look alone is memorable. The wig, the glasses, the prosthetic makeup that creates this almost clown-like figure. And what really makes the performance work is how Madigan can shift her tone almost instantly. She moves seamlessly from polite and benign to something genuinely sinister in a split second. And honestly, it's fucking terrifying. Next, Wunui Musaku, who won the BAFTA for this best supporting role. And in her acceptance speech, she thanked director Ryan Kugler for creating what she described as a safe and sacred space for her to explore her character. She spoke about how the role allowed her to reconnect with parts of herself she felt she had dimmed or lost as an immigrant. I found her performance to be deeply grounded and emotionally resonant. And there's almost a serene grace to the way she carries the character. I found her performance built on emotional depth rather than spectacle, and it's absolutely one of the strongest in the category for me. And rounding out the five, we have Tayana Taylor portraying a complex revolutionary dealing with postpartum depression and survival. During the film, her character makes painful decisions, including leaving her only child while operating almost entirely in survival mode. The performance is both physically commanding and emotionally raw. There's a particularly powerful scene where she records a letter in a single, uninterrupted take. Despite the critical praise, her role has also sparked discussion online about the ways black women's performances are sometimes framed through hypersexualized imagery. Taylor defended the character as a flawed revolutionary rather than a stereotype. But for me, I do think it raises an important question about how the Academy recognizes women's performances. Too often, female nominees are expected to expose their bodies in ways male actors simply are not. And that expectation is something the industry, particularly the academy, still needs to confront. So my prediction, when it comes to best female actor in a supporting role, this might be the most unpredictable acting category of the night. There are several strong performances here. And unfortunately, sometimes these acting races can start to feel like a fucking popularity contest rather than recognition of the tremendous work itself. And unfortunately, women are still far too often judged by how they look rather than the strength of their performances. With that said, here's how I see it playing out. Will win Amy Madigan, should win Woomi Masaku, could win Tayana Taylor. And that's today's fork. If you enjoyed this episode, please follow the show, share it with someone who actually gives a fork about movies. Until next time, watch boldly, judge honestly, and never be afraid to give a fork.