Episode 26 — Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

In this episode of Movies I Give a Fork About, AJ breaks down the nominees for Best Original Screenplay at the 2026 Academy Awards.

From ambitious political storytelling to dark satire, genre-blending horror, and emotionally intimate character studies, this year’s category showcases some of the most distinctive voices in filmmaking.

AJ looks at what makes each screenplay unique — how the writers build tension, construct character, and create stories that feel original enough to stand out in a crowded awards season.

Then it comes down to the predictions:

Who will win, who should win, and which screenplay could surprise everyone on Oscar night.

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Is this movie actually worth your time?

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Welcome to Movies I Give a Fork About, the podcast where we don't use stars, we use forks. Because not every movie deserves your time, not every movie earns your emotion. But when one truly does, that's when you give a fork. I'm AJ, and today's episode is the Oscar Predictions for Best Original Screenplay. There are five nominees this year, and if you've been listening to the podcast, you'll know I have already reviewed all the films, and so I'm going to give some quick thoughts on each before giving my prediction. Let's start with Blue Moon, written by Robert Kaplow. Blue Moon is one of the quieter nominees in this category. Kaplau's screenplay focuses less on spectacle and more on emotional nuance and character psychology. This story unfolds through dialogue, small gestures, and moments of reflection rather than dramatic plot twists. It's the kind of script that relies heavily on actors to bring the emotional weight to life. And when it works, it can be incredibly powerful. But in a category filled with more ambitious storytelling this year, this one may feel a little understated. It was just an accident written by Jafar Pahani with collaborators Nadar Sevar, Sadmir Rastin, and Medhi Mahmoudin. This screenplay stands out for its structure. What begins as seemingly a simple accident slowly unfolds into something much more complex, bringing together multiple characters who may all be connected by a traumatic past. The script blends heavy themes like justice, memory, and revenge with moments of dark humor. And that balance between tension and absurdity is what gives the screenplay its unique voice. It is thoughtful, morally complicated storytelling, and exactly the kind of layered writing the original screenplay category often rewards. Marty Supreme, written by Ronald Bronstein and director Josh Safty. Marty Supreme is a very different kind of script. Safty and Bronstein are known for their propulsive style, overlapping dialogue, chaotic energy, and characters that are constantly operating under pressure. The screenplay follows Titicular character Marty Supreme as a 1950s table tennis hustler navigating a world of ambition, competition, and high-stakes risk. It is dense, fast-paced writing designed to keep the audience slightly off balance. But for me, while the energy is undeniable, the chaos never quite resolves into something emotionally satisfying and it does not land. Sentimental Value, written by Jochem Trier and Eskil Voigt. Once again, we have that powerful combination where the writer and director are the same person. I've said it before on the show, when the person who wrote the story is also directing it, the vision often feels more cohesive. The tone, the pacing, and the emotional beats tend to feel more intentional. And for me, sentimental value is the most emotionally grounded screenplay in this category. The writers focus on family dynamics, memory, and unresolved grief. And the script is built around character rather than plot. The screenplay trusts the silence and the restraint that we see on the characters' faces rather than dramatic exposition. It is quiet but incredibly precise storytelling. Sinners. Sinners is another writer-director project from Ryan Kugler, the filmmaker behind Black Panther, Creed, and Judas and the Black Messiah, a film I absolutely loved. What really won me over here, especially as someone who genuinely hates horror movies, is the way the film builds tension. The story doesn't rely on constant shock or graphic violence. Instead, Kugler lets the silence, the shadows, and the anticipation do the work. Set in the Jim Crow era South, the screenplay builds tension through atmosphere rather than spectacle. And what makes this script particularly strong is how it weaves together genre elements with deeper themes about identity, history, and survival. And in the context of best original screenplay, this is exactly the kind of storytelling the Academy is supposed to celebrate. It's not just well written, it's an innovative storyline combining historical setting, genre storytelling, and social commentary in a way that feels genuinely original. My predictions. So when it comes to best original screenplay, here's what I think. Will win sinners, should win sinners, could win sentimental value. And that's today's fork. If you enjoyed this episode, please follow the show. Share it with someone who actually gives a fork about movies. Until next time, watch boldly, judge honestly, and never be afraid to give a fork.