Episode 30 — Oscar Predictions: Best Director

In this episode of Movies I Give a Fork About, AJ examines the nominees for Best Director at the 2026 Academy Awards.

This category recognizes the filmmakers responsible for shaping the entire vision of a movie — guiding performances, controlling tone, and bringing the story to life through visual storytelling.

AJ looks at the distinctive styles of this year’s nominees — from sprawling political filmmaking to quiet emotional observation — while also addressing the continued representation challenges within the category itself.

Then it comes down to the predictions:

Who will win, who should win, and which filmmaker could pull off an upset on Oscar night.

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Is this movie actually worth your time?

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Welcome to Movies I Give a Fork About, the podcast where we don't use stars, we use forks, because not every movie is worth your time. Not every movie earns your emotion. But when one truly does, that's when you give a fork. I'm AJ, and today's episode is the Oscar Predictions for Best Director. Okay, Best Director. This category recognizes the filmmaker responsible for shaping the entire vision of a movie. The tone, the performances, the pacing, the visual language, everything. A great director isn't just telling a story, they are orchestrating every element that brings that story to life. And this year's lineup includes a long established list of filmmakers and a few directors breaking into the category for the first time. But before we dive into the nominees, there's something worth noting. For an award show approaching 100 years, the Academy still struggles with representation in this category. Once again, this year only one woman is nominated, Chloe Zhao, and historically the Academy seems to be allergic to nominating more than one woman in the same year. Further, Ryan Kugler is the only Director of Color nominated this year. These patterns say a lot about how slowly recognition behind the camera has evolved and how much the industry and particular the academy needs to change. With that context in mind, let's look at the nominees. There are five nominees this year, and if you've been listening to the podcast, you will know I've already reviewed all of these films. So I'm going to give some quick thoughts on each before getting to my prediction. Paul Thomas Anderson won battle after another. Paul Thomas Anderson is one of the most respected filmmakers working today. And remarkably, despite his reputation, he has never won an Oscar. Over his career, he has received 14 Academy Award nominations, including three previous nominations for Best Director for There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread, and Licorice Pizza. He has also been nominated multiple times for writing and producing. So Anderson has become one of those filmmakers the Academy seems to respect enormously, but has never quite been rewarded. One battle after another is classic Anderson. It's sprawling, ambitious, politically charged, and deliberately uncomfortable. He allows scenes to breathe and characters to behave in messy, unpredictable ways. Many voters feel like this is a classic career recognition moment. Ryan Kugler Sinners. Ryan Kougler delivers one of the most confident directing efforts of the year with Sinners. This film blends historical drama, horror, and social commentary in a way that feels remarkably controlled. Instead of relying on shock or spectacle, Kougler builds tension through atmosphere, silence, environment, and anticipation. And for me, it's incredibly assured filmmaking. Before this year's two nominations, Kougler has received three other Academy Award nominations. Two for Black Panther, including Best Picture as Producer and Best Original Song, and one for Best Picture for Judas and the Black Messiah in 2021. I loved that film. This year's nomination marks his first nomination for Best Director. And there is another important historical layer here. Ryan Kugler is the only director of color nominated in this category this year. And incredibly, in the nearly 100 year history of the Oscars, no black director has ever won best director. If Kougler wins, it would be historic. And frankly, it would also be long overdue. Josh Safti, Marty Supreme. Safti earns his first Academy Award nomination for Best Director with Marty Supreme. Safti, along with his brother Benny, became known for their kinetic, anxiety-driven films like Good Time and Uncut Gems. With Marty Supreme, Safti brings that same chaotic energy into the sports world. Following a 1950s table tennis hustler navigating ambition, risk, and relentless competition. His directing style thrives on momentum. Scenes feel volatile and unpredictable, with overlapping dialogue and restless camera movement creating a sense that everything could spiral out of control at any moment. It is a bold stylistic approach, and one that the Academy does not always reward. And given how this film did not land for me, I certainly hope Safti is not recognized before Kugler or Anderson. Chloe Zhao Hamnet Chloe Zhao returns to the best director category with Hamnet. Her filmmaking style is almost the opposite of spectacle. It is quiet, observational, and patient. She allows scenes to breathe and performances to unfold in stillness rather than dramatic escalation. And for me, that restraint gives Hamnet its emotional power. Zhao previously made Oscar History in 2021 when she won Best Director for Nomad Land, becoming only the second woman to ever win the award and the first woman of color to do so. That same year, Zhao also made Oscar History by winning Best Picture as Producer for Nomad Land while also earning a nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay for the same film. This year's nomination marks her second best director nomination. And it's also worth pointing out again that she is the only woman nominated in this category this year. For an industry that talks constantly about progress, the fact that the Academy seems allergic to recognizing more than one female director at a time is something that really needs to change. Yokum Trier Sentimental Value Yochum Trier's direction in sentimental value and the film is built around emotional intimacy. This film is driven by performance and character psychology rather than spectacle. Trier allows moments to unfold naturally, letting silence and the subtle shifts in expression carry the emotional weight of the story. Before this year's nomination, Trier has received one previous Academy Award nomination for Best Original Screenplay for the worst person in the world. This nomination marks his first nomination for best director. And it represents a significant breakthrough moment for the Norwegian filmmaker. My prediction. So when it comes to best director, I know that the safe prediction here is Paul Thomas Anderson. So this is where I will take my biggest swing on my entire Oscar ballot. Because if history is going to change, we need moments like this. So I'm gonna go against the grain. Will win Ryan Kugler for Sinners, should win Ryan Kugler for Sinners, could win Paul Thomas Anderson one battle after another. And that's today's fork. If you enjoyed this episode, follow the show, share it with someone who actually gives a fork about movies. Until next time, watch boldly, judge honestly, and never be afraid to give a fork.