In 10: What you need to know about El Niño and your farm

El Niño is getting a lot of attention, but what could it mean for your farm this season? In this episode, we cut through the noise with WeatherWatch’s Philip Duncan and farm systems expert Steve Veix. They share what to keep an eye on and where to focus your planning, so you’re better prepared for whatever the season brings.

Find out more: Plan ahead for El Nino | DairyNZ

Weather channels:

• Rural Weather
• WeatherWatch
• NIWA Weather 
• MetService - Te Ratonga Tirorangi
• New Zealand Weather Forecasts

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Transcript

Introduction

SPEAKER_02 0:01

Ki ora and welcome to Talking Dairy in 10. I'm your host Jack McGowan from DairyNZ. It's great to have you with us. There's a lot of talk about El Nino and what it could mean this season, but what does it actually mean when you're making decisions on farm? In this episode, we're joined by Phil Duncan, Chief Forecaster at Weather Watch, and Steve Vex, DairyNZ's Farm Systems Team Manager, to talk through what farmers might see in different regions, what it could mean for feed, animals, people and finances, and the practical steps worth thinking about now. We're going to jump straight into it.

El Niño: what’s really going on this season

SPEAKER_02 0:37

Phil, to start us off, what is El Nino and why is it getting so much attention this season?

SPEAKER_00 0:43

Yeah, thanks for having me. Basically, what we're seeing with this El Nino is it's formed earlier than usual, and uh you've all heard the headlines of this super El Nino. So there are kind of two ways of measuring El Nino. There is the global one where you take a big look at the entire Pacific Ocean and you see that the sea temperatures north of Tahiti and over towards the Americas is much warmer than usual. On our side of the international dateline, the sea temperatures around the equator tend to be a bit cooler than usual. So that's one way of measuring it. The second way is what does that mean for New Zealand? And so the headlines that you're seeing about the Super El Nino are the global one. You know, this is a really big event. What that means for New Zealand and Australia, that's still a bit of an unknown as we go through the next few weeks and months ahead.

SPEAKER_02 1:32

How likely

Why this could be a strong event

SPEAKER_02 1:33

is it that we'll see a strong El Nino?

SPEAKER_00 1:35

So I think very likely. The computer modeling from various agencies around the world are all seem to be in that line of it's either a moderate at the weakest, and this very strong one, and a lot of the modelling is in agreement that it will go to that strong event. Like I say, that's a Pacific wide event, and so when you get the headlines about a Super Al Nino, a lot of that is coming from America in particular, and they're worried about the amount of rain they could be seeing from this, and then going into winter snowstorms and events like that. So a lot more moisture over towards the Americas, and that could cause flooding and other problems. On our side of the world, tends to be a bit of a vacuum when that happens, and we can get a lot more high pressure that comes on through. So in New Zealand, being two mountainous islands, you know, partially in the roaring forties and halfway between the equator and Antarctica, there's still a question mark about what that means for us, especially because, you know, it only takes one low pressure zone to park over New Zealand for a week and suddenly we get the rain that we need. The worry will be going into spring and summer, just how dry and how windy it might be in some areas.

Dry here, wet there: what to expect regionally

SPEAKER_02 2:44

How could that play out across different parts of New Zealand? Is it the same for all of us?

SPEAKER_00 2:49

Not really, no. It depends exactly. If we do get a strong El Nino that affects New Zealand, then we sort of have history to go and give us a bit of guidance. What has shown in the past is we get more high pressure parked in the Tasman Sea and tracking north of New Zealand. So that north placement tends to block tropical storms from coming down our way. And when it's parked in the Tasman, it encourages a lot of westerlies and southwesterlies. So if you're on the west coast, that could mean a lot of rain. And we've been seeing that over the last couple of months. They've had some pretty big rain events coming through. Some of that spilled over into places like Nelson, which isn't always the case. But usually it means the west coast of the South Island gets a lot more rain. Western parts of the North Island get more cloud and some rain. And inland and eastern areas tend to dry out. And another thing you'll hear about El Nino is how it brings hotter weather. And that certainly on a global scale may well push up our temperatures globally. But locally in New Zealand, you know, if you've got a windy westerly blowing in the middle of summer and you live in Totonaki, that's not necessarily the hottest weather that you get. So eastern areas dry out, western areas get the rain, and the North Island, the top of the North Island, can also be quite dry as well, based on history, although we never quite know what this could deliver for us here this year.

When it hits and how long it could last

SPEAKER_02 4:09

Okay, yeah, so we don't know quite what we're in for yet, but we're potentially in for something. When a forecast is expecting those impacts to start being felt on farm, and how long might that last?

SPEAKER_00 4:20

I think that we're already feeling it now. I think the big high pressure zones we had in May, which really made it for a dry month in a number of areas. We did get some heavy rain towards the end of the month and going into the start of June in some areas. So there have been some pockets of relief, but we are starting to see it. And if you look at the uh soil moisture maps from Niwa or Earth Sciences New Zealand, you can already see that West Coast uh lean with the rain. And if you look at Canterbury and Central Otago and parts of the lower North Island, those areas are really drying out. And so I think we're already starting to feel the El Nino weather pattern. As for how long it lasts, because it is a super Al Nino, this is much stronger than ones we've had in the past from a global point of view. It winds its way up and then it's got to wind its way back down again. And so there are some people saying this could last 12 months. Really? Yeah, and at a minimum it's going to be with us for the rest of this year and going into our summer. So that's why I think the real concern maybe isn't around now. It's more what happens in spring, what happens in summer, and what happens in autumn of next year. But there is always the wild card in New Zealand, and that's because we are a small mountainous country, a couple of islands, you know, out at sea. We can get a tropical low that comes down and delivers a whole lot of rain, or we can get a southern ocean storm that comes in and drives in a wet southerly for those dry eastern areas. So we've always got that to hope for, a silver lining, if you like. But yeah, it could be around for quite a while.

SPEAKER_02 5:48

Okay, thank you,

What it means for your farm this season

SPEAKER_02 5:49

Phil. And now, Steve, I'm gonna bring you in. So it sounds like we're heading into a more variable season and it might last some time, more than one season even. What does that mean for dairy farms?

SPEAKER_01 5:59

I think the biggest impact potentially is on the ability for farmers for homegrown feeds, actually what they're growing on farm. And that's from a growth distribution across the season, but also potential quality challenges as well. I also think it's really important to stress here this is not about the sky falling. This is actually, hey, farmers, this is coming your way potentially. What options have you got? Because I think the biggest challenge here is the unpredictability of how this will play out. So this is all about preparations, preparedness to make sure that farmers are in a better position to respond if this does

Planning early for hot, dry conditions

SPEAKER_01 6:30

eventuate.

SPEAKER_02 6:31

Okay. So for farms where it might be hot and dry, how would you suggest that they prepare?

SPEAKER_01 6:36

I think it's about thinking about the scenarios and how they could potentially play out on your farm and in your region. I like to break that down into feed, animals, people, and finances. So from a feed perspective, it's about completing a seasonal feed budget, understanding where you might have surplus and deficit periods. If it is dry, it's about making the most of the available soil moisture early. So that might be planting summer crops or looking at deferred grazing once, you know, that feed supply has met demand. Considering supplementary feed options early, I think being in the place of being proactive, not reactive is really important. And being prepared to adjust. I think so, you know, if it does play into autumn, as Phil touched on, you know, whether you can lower stocking rate earlier, drawing cows off earlier and culling some of those less productive cows earlier. From an animal perspective, I think the milk production and reproductive performance is something to consider. And likes of milking, you know, minimizing cows standing on concrete during the heat of the day is not great. So if you if you can adjust your milking frequency, paddock selection is important, so you know, prioritizing shade and shelter. And also looking after your people, Jack. It's not great being out in the heat of the day doing jobs. If you can change jobs around to, you know, move them into cooler parts of the day, then that would be an option too. And finally, the finances is a big part of it as well. Because of the unpredictability, we don't know how that's going to impact on feed availability. It may necessitate the need to bring feed in. And if that's the case, understanding your finances and having a bit of a scenario budget in place.

SPEAKER_02 7:59

Steve, this sounds like normal, good farm management.

SPEAKER_01 8:03

Potentially, Jack. Yeah, absolutely. I think the key thing with this is being prepared and being able to be agile and adjust as required based on what's thrown your way in terms of the potential weather patterns, yes.

SPEAKER_02 8:14

Okay.

Irrigation under pressure

SPEAKER_02 8:15

Well, that's farms that get dry. There's obviously farms with irrigation. How does it differ for them?

SPEAKER_01 8:21

Uh farms with irrigation, I guess that ensures consistent pasture and crop growth throughout the season. But I think one thing is the availability of water. Um, we've seen in previous Al Nino events that actually the infrastructure intakes for irrigation schemes have been damaged. And that's potentially a risk in this situation as well. If that plays out, then there is a risk that irrigation water may be limited. I think the other thing too is if it is hot and dry and it's prolonged, we may see some irrigation systems don't actually keep up with demand. And so that's actually going to have an impact as well on what farmers grow on farm. The key thing here really is around prioritization if irrigation water is limited. So it's actually maximizing that water where you can get the best bang for buck in terms of application. And ultimately, you know, irrigation does reduce risk, but in this situation, as we don't know how it's going to play out, it doesn't eliminate that risk.

SPEAKER_02 9:11

Okay.

When the rain doesn’t stop

SPEAKER_02 9:12

Thank you. Phil said farms on the West Coast might face wetter conditions. What do they need to plan for?

SPEAKER_01 9:18

Yeah, I think if we go back to those four key areas, Jack, sort of feed animals, people and finances as well. So the wetter conditions, there's uh potential impacts on what you grow and farm again, but there's uh utilization challenges as well. So particularly if pastures and soils are damaged or impact by wetter conditions. So I think having a plan in place to be able to deal with that and manage that. Animals, you know, wetter conditions can place extra pressure on animal health and welfare. I'm I'm thinking the likes of lameness, mastitis, and general conditions of cows are standing around on wet tracks or wet areas, it's not great. And people, that's a major one as well. No one likes putting wet gum boots on the next day, day after day. It's it's something that's not great. So looking after your people as well and maintaining morale amongst the team is really important. And finally, that finance piece as well. You know, if there is going to be additional costs from these weather impacts, it's being prepared for those too.

SPEAKER_02 10:09

What

The early signs to keep an eye on

SPEAKER_02 10:10

early signals should farmers be watching for in their region?

SPEAKER_00 10:14

As we go through the months of winter, sort of trying to work out are we going drier than usual or wetter than usual? That would be what I'd be looking for. Are we starting to already see, you know, a drying out phase, or is this just a little blip at the moment? It's all about high pressure with El Nino for our part of the world. Where are the highs? And, you know, the shape of the high matters. If it's parked out over Tasmania, it can dredge up southerlies. If it's parked over towards Queensland, as they've been in recent weeks, that can bring in quite mild westerlies for us. So sort of monitoring where the high pressure belt is is probably a key thing to be doing over the next few months, and starting to notice if that's producing any sort of unusual localized weather, which might be a, yeah, as I say, a drying out phase, or maybe going the other way and going wetter in some regions.

SPEAKER_02 11:00

Okay. Thank you.

Staying one step ahead

SPEAKER_02 11:02

Steve, when conditions are uncertain, what can you do to be ready?

SPEAKER_01 11:06

I think the key message here is about preparedness above anything else. And it's starting to understand how conditions may play out in your region, as Phil alludes to. Think about how your farm could be impacted and how you can mitigate some of the risks. And I think it's really, really important to keep up to date with reliable weather sources. I'm thinking Weather Watch, Niwa, and track how those conditions are evolving. I think Phil, you touched on that, which is a really important aspect. And then monitoring your own farm metrics as well, pasture growth, feed supply, finances, and animal performance aspects. And I think ultimately at the end of the day, farmers that are proactive in this space, they're monitoring these, the situation closely and willing to adjust early, are likely to be in the best position to manage whatever El Nino throws at us.

SPEAKER_02 11:46

All right,

The actions that matter most right now

SPEAKER_02 11:47

so if farmers take away three actions from this conversation, what would you want them to do next?

SPEAKER_00 11:53

Water conservation is a big part of it. You know, trying to ensure that you've got enough water. In some cases, that's hard to do, but having a plan around that, we've learnt a lot from previous El Nino events, and I get reminded a lot about the 1990s and the ones that were critical and severe. We've learnt a lot since then. Technology's changed a lot since then. And I think, you know, being talking to other farmers around the country and having sort of a gut feeling as to what's going on in different parts of New Zealand could help you plan ahead. I don't know if I've got two other ones, but that's probably the main one that I'd be focused on.

SPEAKER_02 12:27

We'll let Steve have the other two.

SPEAKER_01 12:30

Well, actually, Jack, I've got four. Um so I'm gonna be a little bit greedy in this situation. So uh the first point is probably you know, plan and be prepared. So I think, you know, in any situation, be proactive, not reactive. Stay connected and informed. We've already touched on that. So monitoring how the weather and climate's evolving, and that's keeping up to date with Weather Watch and Niwa and the likes, monitoring those farm metrics and tracking those trends. So being ready to adjust when you need to. And finally, the Dairy and Z website, we've got a great range of practical tools and resources online to help farmers get through this period, should this play out as it's kind of predicted to be.

SPEAKER_02 13:01

And I think um staying connected, not just to know what's happening, but staying connected to others helps you know that you're not alone when things are a bit tough as well. Definitely.

Episode summary

SPEAKER_02 13:10

Right, that's it for today. Great insights from both of you. Thank you, Phil, and thank you, Steve. The key message here is to stay informed, think ahead, and build flexibility into your plans early. You can keep up with the El Nino forecast developments and rural weather on Phil Duncan's channel, weatherwatch.co.nz, and check out DariNZ.co.nz forward slash L dash Nino to find tools and resources to help you plan. Thanks for listening and we'll catch you next time, Matewa. If you'd like to get connected with DariNZ's latest advice, research, tools, and resources, whether it's reading, scrolling, listening, or in person, you can visit DariNZ.co.nz forward slash get-connected, and don't forget to hit follow to keep up to date with our latest episodes. As always, if you have any feedback on this podcast or have some ideas for future topics or guests, please email us at talkingdairy at dairynz.co.nz. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time on Talking Dairy.