Bolts vs. Habs 2026 Round 1 Playoff Preview

Stevie Z delivers the first of what he hopes will be a few playoff series previews for the Bolts in the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs. He looks at potential storylines, strengths/weaknesses of Tampa and Montreal, X-Factors for the series and gives a series prediction. 

Transcript

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What is going on, party people? You are tuning in to the 401 Channel Side Podcast, a Tampa Bay Lightning fan podcast, hosted by yours truly, Stevie Z, and this is your Tampa Bay Lightning versus Montreal Canadiens round one playoff preview. I'm so excited, guys. It's finally here. We have a schedule. Let's get right into it. So your bolts will kick off round one on Sunday, April 19th at 5.45 p.m. for game one. Game two is Tuesday, April 21st at 7 p.m. Game 3, Friday, April 24th, 7 p.m. in Montreal. Game four, Sunday, April 25th at 7 p.m. in Montreal. And then if we get a game five, it'll be Wednesday, April 29th. Game six in Montreal, Friday, May 1st. Game seven back in Tampa on Sunday, May 3rd. If there's anything that I noticed right off the bat about this schedule, Montreal got no home games on a Saturday night in the Bell Center. Now, I'm not sure what that says about them or about the Tampa Bay Lightning, about the matchup in general. I was just really surprised. Because I wasn't expecting it. I I you kind of knew that if Tampa was going to start on the road, the series would probably start Saturday night, 8 p.m. game, hockey night in Canada in Montreal. And then what you were thinking was that, or at least what I was thinking, and maybe many others were, was that they were going to boot the Peso Pluma concert at uh benchmark on Saturday night and maybe have the Lightning play Saturday night, 8 p.m. So that way we could get the hockey night in Canada game. But it didn't work out that way. So throughout the entire first round, Montreal doesn't get a home game on a Saturday night. There's actually no Saturday games at all. Right? Let's look at some storylines coming in, uh, at least from the Tampa Bay side. Look, the first one that is prevalent and and I think would speak towards Tampa Bay in the most recent playoff rounds. Tampa has no home wins in the last two years. Now, what you're hoping is that they rectify that, right? If you can remember the quote from Vasi in preseason training camp where he says, the home record in the playoffs is terrible. In front of our home fans, getting our shit kicked in. Sometimes you have to play simple instead of trying to make hero plays. That has never been more resolute or resounding than heading into round one, game one for the Bolts. The second one, Kucharov, has no playoff goals the last three years. Okay. 130 points this year, 44 goals. He has been like rendered absolutely ineffective since the Toronto series three years ago when he scored one playoff goal. So that's gonna have to that that's something to watch out for. The third one goes back to our goaltender, Andre Vasilevski. Vasi in the last three playoff first round losses, okay, he has an 8-8-1 save percentage over the last three years in the playoffs. The last time Tampa won a round, which coincides when they last went to the Stanley Cup final, Vasilevsky had a 9-22 save percentage. So from the Tampa side, okay, those are three things that I personally have highlighted as potential storylines to see and just to watch for. Is Tampa going to get a home win in the playoffs? Is Kuchoff going to be effective? Is he going to make his presence felt? And are we going to have the Andre Vasilevsky that we are used to or accustomed to seeing in big moments? Because we haven't really, speaking on those two players who are our big time stars, we haven't seen that from them in the last three years. And it has coincided with the Bolts struggling and having the early playoff exits. Tampa won the first two, first game being 6-1 in Montreal. Then Tampa won the second one, 5-4 in a shootout here in Tampa. Then Montreal won the next two. 4-1 win for Montreal here in Tampa, where Dobesh stood on his head and Montreal was blocking everything. And that 2-1 win for Montreal, that's the most recent game, and why I ask, will this series be chippy? I do feel like in that game, Montreal came out with a purpose. They saw where the standings were, they saw the percentage and the likelihood that they were going to play Tampa in the first round. I really do think that there was a lot of posturing by Montreal to make a statement in that moment or in that game to say, if we play in the playoffs, you are not going to bully us. I think Montreal took a page out of the book of the Florida Panthers. Will it work for them for duration of what could be a seven-game series? I personally do not think so. Number one, Montreal is not the Florida Panthers. Okay, Montreal does not get the same rise out of Tampa that the Panthers do. It's different players, different environments, the atmosphere is different. Like, it is so different. I was very interested to see Montreal come out and be the aggressor in that game and try to get Tampa to bite and fall into the trap of that. In that most recent matchup, I thought that Montreal was trying really hard to go Tampa into that, and Tampa just wasn't interested. They did do some of it, right? Um in the corners and things like that, post-whistle. But overall, I felt that in that game, Montreal was the main aggressor, and somehow Tampa was penalized, you know, seven times, and I think it was six straight times that they they were on the PK. I just don't think that that will be a theme of this round, this matchup. Now, initially, I would imagine that the first game will be like that, and I would imagine game three in the Bell Center will be like that. But I don't envision that being a theme throughout the duration of the entire series. Let's look at some of the playoff matchup history between the Bolts and the Habs, right? So this will be the fifth time they meet. In 2004, the Bolts swept the Habs in the second round. Uh that followed by uh the Lightning winning their first ever Stanley Cup. Uh 2014, John Cooper's first year. The Habs swept the Bolts in the first round. Uh 2015, the Bolts won 4-2 in the second round. And if you can remember, that was just like a coming out party for the triplets line of Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucharov, and Andre Pilat. And that was more so, I mean, they did a lot of it in the first round, but like game one in the Bell Center, uh, Kucharoff scores a like a controversial OT goal. It looked like it was offsides from the blue line. It nothing gets checked. He goes and snipes a goal past Carrie Price. The Bolts take game one, and then later on in that series, we have the Tyler Johnson buzzer beater at uh what was then Amy, right, with 0.1 seconds left. What what a series that was. And then 2021, Bolts win uh 4-1 in the series, and they beat Montreal in the Stanley Cup final. And what will this one be like? I mean, I I think I I think honestly, we're we're in for a really fast series. It's always gonna be intense, but for me, what's going to be so important is how is Tampa going to build their game starting from game one? How are they going to influence the series? Right, looking at some strengths and weaknesses, right, for for both for both teams, and and we'll start with Tampa. I think Tampa's strengths lie with goaltending, especially with Andre Vasilevsky, because he's proven in the playoffs what he can do. And people still would say that if they had to pick a goalie in a one-game scenario, like the poll from the uh NHLPA, they're picking Andre Vasilevsky. So we are trying to see if will Andre Vasilevsky rekindle some of that staunch goaltending, the just being a stalwart brick wall in net that we have seen throughout his career in the playoffs, but we haven't seen the last three years. But I do think that Andre Vasilevsky is a strength in net in this series for Tampa. Uh, number one. I'm sorry, the next one, number two, depth beyond just the first line. Okay, so the first line, right, and and well, we can take a look at it. The first line for Tampa today, as they came out for practice, Gonsalves point Kuturoff. Now, the obviously the big one on that line is Kucharoff with 130 points, but they aren't even the most well-rounded line for Tampa in terms of scoring and scoring depth. That would go to the second line, which today John Cooper put out of Hegel, Sorelli, and Gensel in practice. Like Sorelli over 50 points, Hegel, 74 points, Gensel, 88 points. That is the best scoring line for Tampa, and it doesn't involve Kutrov. Okay, the third line, Gergensen scored and Paul. And this was a question that I had going in to the playoffs is that would we see Nick Paul put on the third line to, in a sense, replace Holmberg? I think that this is perfect for Nick Paul. I think he fits into this line seamlessly. They are all three centers on one line, so all of them can take a face off. I would imagine that this would start out to be the shutdown line for John Cooper. Nick Paul's had a rough year with injury and just in the production department. But his ability to skate as a bigger body for the Bolts and for him to mix it up, I like him on that third line. I think he fills in for Homburg nicely on that third line. And the fourth line, we'll see. We know that Cory Perry is more than likely gonna be on it. And then it'll be a mix of Bjorkstrand, uh, Sabran, and James. And I'm really interested to see if James is healthy. Is he gonna get the nod to play center on the fourth line? And we know that Cory Perry is in. Is it gonna be Sabran or Bjorkstrand? You would think Saburin because of Arbor Jacques, Jordan Strubble for Montreal, and Josh Anderson. Right? You kind of want somebody to police it a little bit. Um, but it could be Bjorkstrand in place of Saburin to get more speed on the fourth line and to maybe try to uh take advantage of maybe the lesser speed and Montreal's bottom six, particularly the fourth line. Right. Looking at Montreal's lines from practice today, right? Their first line was Caulfield, Suzuki, Slavkowski, second line was Texier, Newhook, Demidov, third line was Bulduk, Kapanin, and Doc. Fourth line was Evans, Dano, and Anderson. You look at their D pairings, and they've got Gooley and Matheson, who uh just according to this tweet was their first pairing, uh Hudson and Carrier. And their third pair is Strubel and Jackeye. You look at the Lightning's D-pairs. Okay, first pair Moser Radish, we know that. That's a given. McDonough Chernak, we know that. Uh Desteux and Lilleberg is the third pair for the Lightning. No surprise. Carlisle and Crozier are the extras. Uh seven and eight defensemen. Looking at Montreal's D pairs, that's a bit interesting. Uh that third pair, especially of Strubel and Jack. I just I don't know how much they'll really play if they get stuck out there versus uh either of the two lines, the top two lines versus Tampa. That could be trouble for them. Right. So the depth beyond the first line, looking at it, the combinations for Tampa, it just looks stronger than Montreal. Now, maybe not from a points perspective, because both Tampa and Montreal have nine guys with 30 points or more. However, what I mean by depth is John Cooper has more ways to tinker with his lineup, to move guys around, to maybe take some guys from the top line, maybe put them down the second line, and he just has the opportunity to move guys up and down the lineup to maybe generate some offense or generate defense. Another strength of Tampa. They're defending, just overall defending. Some stats here from the most recent game. I'm sorry, a game, the game against Detroit. Uh Script Sports put out a stat talking about dominant defense for Tampa. And the biggest one that I noticed, I danger chances against for Tampa, they were first with 14.9 a game. And we're gonna get into later on why that's important. Right? And when we speak on defending, just a more well-rounded defensive team, Tampa has the most man games missed by D-Men this year. Going into that last week of the season, Tampa had 197 games missed. Man games missed by D-Man. Or D-Men. So when I say that not only do they have the depth defensively, they have the ability to defend really well as they finished third in goals allowed for the season. I think that heading into round one, especially against a team that has the likes of a top line in Caulfield, Suzuki, and Slawkovski, that ability to defend, and especially in high danger areas, and I will draw the connection soon, will be absolutely vital for Tampa, and that is for sure a strength. And the last strength for Tampa that I feel for this first round is their penalty kill. They are second amongst playoff teams after the regular season had concluded with an 82.6% success rate on the penalty kill. When playing Montreal this year, they've only allowed one power play goal in four games. Okay, now let's look at some of the weaknesses. Tampa Bay's discipline. Tampa Bay is the most penalized team in the league. That is concerning when you think about in the playoffs, power play opportunities are so limited. Not limited, but the refs tend to swallow their whistles. And you just want to try to avoid a lot of the post-wistle scrums that Tampa are known for getting dinged for the extra penalty and putting Montreal on needless or unnecessary extra power play opportunities. The second one is transition and rush chance defense. So against some of the faster skating teams, like we've seen, uh, they've gotten exposed in some areas, especially versus the likes of Buffalo, uh, Ottawa has done it to them, Montreal in in their most recent game and how they scored. Uh, Boston, they got a breakaway goal. And I said this in the last episode, but just Tampa's detail to ensuring that their transition and Rush Tranch defense is more dialed in, that is a concern for me heading in because I think it's a weakness for Tampa. And and let me be honest. If Tampa, if Tampa's defensemen are not in the best position outside of Moser and Radis, so we're talking about Chernack, McDonough, Dastew, and Liliberg, they're not the most fleet-of-foot defensemen. So when saying that, like they're not getting back to disrupt a play like Victor Hedman would, if they're in a bad position. So maybe being less fleet-of-foot, I don't want to call them slow because they're not, but less fleet of foot and a little bit careless when breaking out of the defensive zone, into the neutral zone, potentially having a giveaway, and that transition and rush defense. I think that is a weakness for Tampa that I'm sure John Cooper has made note of that he wants to try to correct as they build their game in this first round. Looking at some Montreal strengths, right? That first line, that first line of Suzuki, Caulfield, and Slavkovski. I mean, Nick Suzuki, 101 points, he has 21 goals. Caulfield, 88 points, 51 goals. Slavkovsky, 73 points, he had 30 goals. So you're, I mean, you're looking at a first line that has what 110 goals combined. That is an excellent first line. That is an absolute strength for Montreal. Not to mention that those guys can all skate. And when you add in Lane Hudson, like they are a fast moving team. They work and operate really well in transition. They are the best shot blocking team in the league, Montreal. Now, I I want to present a caveat here with them being the best shot blocking team in the league. There are two theories that I have thought about when it comes to this. Number one, maybe they are they are the best shot blocking team and they are getting a lot of blocks and in one and done situations. Or they are hemmed in their own zone a lot, which causes them to be in a whether they're hemmed in their own defensive zone, which causes them to be in a position to where they have to block a lot more shots. Okay. Another strength. Their power play finished 10th in the league this year. However, it's ninth among playoff teams. So the only team at the end of the season who was in the top 10 that didn't make the playoffs was the New York Rangers. And I believe they were fifth. It is a strength for them. However, like I said, they only had one goal on the power play versus Tampa in four games throughout the regular season. Some of the weaknesses for Montreal is the depth beyond the first line. I just don't know if Marty St. Louis has the same luxury as John Cooper to be able to mix and match lines to get certain players going. I'm not sure if he has that throughout his lineup, like John Cooper does. Because really, outside of Suzuki, Caulfield, Hudson, Slavkowski, you have an excellent rookie and Ivan Demidoff, who led our rookies, I believe, with 62 points, 19 goals, 43 assists. But outside of those top four guys of Suzuki, Caulfield, Hudson, Slavkovski, I just don't know if that first, after that first forward line and after that number one offensive defenseman, if they have more behind it. I don't think they have that luxury. Another weakness is the young goaltending, right? So people laud Vasilevsky and this Tampa Bay Lightning team for their experience. Conversely, Montreal is the complete opposite. Out of their two goaltenders that they will more than likely play, which is uh Jakob Dobesh and Jacob Fowler, three games played between both of them with a one and two record and an 8-8-1 save percentage. And that those are all by Dobesh. Okay. And the biggest weakness that I think is their best shot blocker and a vital component to their shutdown pair with Mike Matheson, Noah Dobson, the other defenseman, he is out for this series, more than likely, with a broken thumb. So you are the Montreal Canadians are the best shot blocking team, yet their best shot blocker is out. A piece of their best, a piece of their shutdown pair is missing. It will be interesting to see how that influences and maybe unsteadies the defensive pairs for Montreal and Marty St. Louis. Okay looking at some X factors for this series for Tampa. Okay, number one, Kucharoff. 86 has to be a factor in this series. It is not stressed enough. One goal in his last three playoff rounds. He's got 17 points in his last 16 playoff games. How will Kucharoff make his presence felt in this series? Because what he's doing in the regular season has to begin to translate to the playoffs. And we're speaking recency bias just from the last two years, especially. Kucharoff in the last two years versus the Florida Panthers in the first round, he has more giveaways with 22 than he has shots, 16. In saying that about Kucharov, I do believe that if Kucharoff is on in this series, there is not another player on the ice who can touch him. Biased, maybe, maybe not. Kucharov has the pedigree. He has shown it that when he is on, there is nobody on the ice who is comparable. Except for the likes of Connor McDavid, McKinnon. And outside of that, who? So we are going to need the Tampa Bay Lightning, they are going to need Kucharoff to do those things that we have seen in the regular season for the last couple years. Those are going to have to translate into the playoffs. Second X factor, the Bolts power play. One for 32 to finish the season. They are 10th amongst playoff teams heading in. And they have one goal versus Montreal in the power play this regular season in the regular season matchups out of four games. I think and I hope that Tampa is working on adding a little bit more dynamism, some more dynamic movement into their power play. So I want you to try to envision Tampa on the power play. Okay, and I'm going to try to paint a picture of it for you so you know. We already know that Kucharov is going to be on the half wall to the left of the goalie. We know that Jake Gensel is going to be next to Kucharoff, but a little bit further on the goal line extended below the circles. Radish is going to be patrolling the point for a big one-time shot. Braden Point is going to be in the bumper. We know that. And then I don't know who the hell is going to be on that opposing side at the left circle. Uh Hegel, Perry, and him move down. I don't know. But all I know is that adding a little bit of some dynamic movement should in theory help the power play. It's too static. It's very telegraphed. Teams have. And what he is hoping and what he has seen is that Kucharov, how is Kucharoff going to be involved? Because teams have begun to cut him off, and then they kind of just leave him be, and they make the other power play guys beat them. So they don't let Kutaroff facilitate. So how will John Cooper create ways with Jeff Halpern to facilitate Kucharoff being able to be a playmaker? I have thought that it's having when they have the puck on the power play in the offensive zone, Kucharov on the half wall, moving Kutaroff slightly into the deeper corner, taking Jake Gensel from the goal line extended, and maybe putting him net front, bumping point out, and then allow Darren Radish to slide down near just above the circle and allow him to get a powerful one-time shot in close. And the reason why I say that, there's a goal in mind against Pittsburgh, I believe it was, a couple weeks ago, the most recent game against Pittsburgh, where Darren Radish scored his 20th goal, I believe. And where he scored the goal from wasn't at the blue line. It wasn't a point shot bomb. Kucherwaff was near that area, the deep corner to the goal line extended. Darren Radish made his way just above the circles and lined up perfectly, and he could walk into it. And I believe the Pittsburgh goaltender had no chance for it. I just want you to envision that type of movement, right? Kucharov half wall going into the deep corner, and it's kind of like a triangle that point now, who was in the bumper spot, gets moved. And what you're hoping is that he pulls like a decoy. So Gensel, uh the goal line extended to the left of the goaltender, then goes net front in front of the goaltender, point who was in the bumper, now goes to the right of the goaltender at the goal line extended. And Kuchoff is now facilitating from the deep corner, trying to pull defenders out. And what you also offer is that if point leaves the bumper and goes to the opposing, the opposite goal line extended, that Kucharov can then get a rim. And now you can just make continue to cycle the puck. And you allow Kutcharoff to facilitate from a different angle, an angle that Montreal has not seen. The last X factor is Tampa's ability to limit will be their ability to limit transition and rush chance or high danger chances. So, and the reason why I say that this is an X factor versus Montreal this year, Tampa has 52 high danger chance for, high danger chances for 42 high danger chances against. And in those high danger chance areas, they have an 86.36% high danger save percentage versus Montreal in comparison to Montreal's 62.5 high danger save percentage versus Tampa. And this ties back into that defending element that I thought was a strength for Tampa. Montreal has allowed 88 high danger goals against this season, the fifth worst amongst playoff teams. Tampa, 72, has, I believe they have 70, what, 72 high danger goals against, which was the sixth best amongst playoff teams. Montreal has 75 high danger chance goals for, which is the worst among playoff teams. And Tampa has 109 high danger goals for, which is the best in the league coming into the playoffs. Right? You look at their chance creation. Montreal has only created 796 high danger chances, which is the fourth worst amongst the playoff teams. And I'm sorry, they've allowed 796, which is the fourth worst amongst playoff teams. They've created 690, which is the worst amongst the playoff teams. Tampa has allowed 641 over the course of the season, high danger chances allowed. And they've generated 803 high danger chances for, which is the ninth amongst playoff teams. So needless to say, that X factor is how is Tampa Bay is Tampa Bay operating in the high danger chance areas? How are they defending? How are they generating offense? Right? X factors for Montreal, scoring beyond the first line. Suzuki, Caulfield, Slavkowski cannot do it all if they want to have a chance this series. They are going to need depth scoring because if Tampa finds a way to mitigate their impact, Montreal could be in trouble. Another X factor is their youthfulness. How will they be when some odds are stacked against them? Montreal cannot go back to the Bell Center down 2 2-0. They have to get a split. They cannot go back to the Bell Center down two games. Because we just don't know how resilient they are as a group. So I would like to see Tampa challenge that resilience. Get on them early. From game one, opening puck drop, send messages. You wanted Tampa, you got them. And when I say send messages, I'm not talking about the post-Scrum BS. I'm talking about with skating, with hard checking, with puck movement, with shooting, not passing up shots, make Dobesh uncomfortable in those high danger chance areas. We don't want to see one and duns like we saw in the most recent home game versus Montreal, a lot of one and done chances for Tampa. Make Dobesh uncomfortable. Challenge the resolve and the resilience of this young Montreal Canadians team. And when I say young, I'm not meaning in age. I'm talking about in playoff experience. In series where you are going against a team for anywhere from four to seven games where they're going to make adjustments. How are you going to adjust? The Lightning need to test that resolve of the Canadians. That is an X factor. And the last one is Dobesh. He's young. He's got three playoff games. The guy that he's going against is well versed in these high pressure moments. I I don't know if Dobesh will be able to consistently keep up his high level of play because I believe in the law of averages. And I think that if teams are just playing at such a high level, eventually, you play at such a high level for such a long time, eventually that rounds out, and you just kind of just kind of revert back to where you are. Like we've never, you know, Dobesh played so well this season and he played so well down the stretch, and he didn't play so well in the last two games, um, and the two regular season games for Montreal. I am curious to see if Tampa gets to him early, what is his result? How resilient is he? So that will be an X factor for Montreal. On to my series prediction, and then we'll talk about some of the other series really quick. Look, my heart says Bolts and five, my head says Bolts and six. I do think if somehow Tampa is able to get the two here at home, they are going to Montreal is going to play the game of their life at the Bell Center. We know that. It is going to be on this team to figure out a way to once again, like I said, challenge the resolve and the resilience of this Canadians team. The youngest team in the league by average age and and probably playoff experience. How will Tampa set the tone early? My heart says five games, but my head says six because of the fact that this is the playoffs. Anything can happen. I would imagine Montreal will play a good game and Dobesh will steal a game. Now, it could be the game that he steals, could be the one game out of the five, right? I don't know. But my heart says five games. And looking at some of, you know, like the athletic has Tampa at a at a 71% in favor rate or in favor percentage of Tampa winning the series. I mean, that is that is a high number. It's the playoffs. A number like that leaves me kind of cause for pause. Yeah, 79% to 21%. And then they have it, you know, Tampa winning 90% in four games, 26% in five games, 20 and 6 games, 20% in six games, 14% in seven games. I personally think the longer this series goes, the more it benefits Tampa because it allows them to kind of grow into the game and make adjustments. I would think that if Montreal were to take this series over early, get both games in Tampa, maybe, now you are going back to the Bell Center. I think that's the best way for Montreal for their path of success. I just don't know how they will be able to handle the work of John Cooper and the coaching staff and their ability to make adjustments and the play and the Tampa Bay Lightning's resilience and resolve and their experience in doing so. We've got the other playoff series really quick. Looking at it, right, so Buffalo, Boston, Carolina, Ottawa, Pittsburgh, Philly on the east. In the west, we've got Colorado and LA, Vegas and Utah, Dallas and Minnesota, and Edmonton and Anaheim. I am all of the East series intrigue me. Uh the Boston-Buffalo one does especially because I've just Boston to me, big heavy team, they just scream. They ooze out long series versus Buffalo. The Pittsburgh Philly one is as well, just the Battle of Pennsylvania. And on the west side, the only one that really intrigues me is Dallas versus Minnesota. Alright, guys, so that is your playoff preview. I I went a little bit longer than I wanted to. Heading into the playoffs, okay, what it's gonna be is I am going to do not weekly episodes anymore, but what I'm going to do is you're going to get a raw reaction episode after every playoff game. I will be at game one in my seats. So I will do my best to haul ass home and try to get a little 10 15 minute raw reaction after the game. And it'll just be those podcasts that you'll get either the night of the game or the next morning, and just a little reaction, some thoughts. Guys, we are we are ready to go. We'll check in soon. See ya.