Paradigm Shift
The Everything Podcast, hosted by the dynamic duo Rob and Jesse, is your weekly dose of unfiltered conversations that truly cover everything—from the latest crypto market rollercoasters and tech breakthroughs to wild life stories, random hot takes, and whatever absurd rabbit hole the hosts tumble down next. With Rob's sharp, no-BS insights and Jesse's laid-back humor keeping things grounded yet unpredictable, each episode feels like kicking back with two old friends who aren't afraid to dive deep, roast bad ideas, or just geek out over the weirdest corners of culture and current events. Whether you're into finance, memes, or pure chaos, it's the show that somehow makes it all connect.
Paradigm Shift
Paradigm Shift Podcast: Bitcoin Blood Bath
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Rob & Jesse Talk about the reasons why the Crypto Spacew is dropping and how long it will continue to drop, When Is a good time to buy and what they are targeting
All right, guys, welcome back. We have been on hiatus for the last week, but we are back at it. Por us big rob and my partner in crime, Jesse. What's going on, buddy?
SPEAKER_01What's happening, Deuces? Oh, there we go. Now we can see them. At least one of them.
SPEAKER_00Deuces, Deuces, what's going down?
SPEAKER_01Hey, I'm ready to talk about the bloodbath, man. It has been brutal, brutal out there.
SPEAKER_00Yes, the crypto bloodbath, which is funny because uh over on my crypto channel, I have been telling everybody we were up at 82k, as you recall, a couple weeks ago, maybe three three or three-ish weeks ago, four weeks ago. Yeah. And I was telling everybody, go back on my videos, we're we're going down to below 75. First, we're gonna go to 75, and then we're going lower. I figure the bottom is somewhere around 50 to 55k for this cycle. I see some people calling a little lower, like 40k, but I think 47, 48 on a couple of wicks, but generally I think we're gonna consolidate for a bottom around 50 to 55k for Bitcoin, right? People, dude, when we're at 82, 83k, like three weeks ago, I was getting attacked like crazy because I was saying that. This guy doesn't know what he's talking about. We're going to new all-time highs. You know, one comment even began with ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. You're an idiot. We're not going down. It's funny because I can't seem to find that gentleman anymore. Oh, weird. That's weird. What a coincidence, right? Yeah, it's uh it was funny, just getting attacked. And but as a result, I mean, my private community was very well positioned. They were saving up uh instead of buying, they were saving up all of their capital in uh stablecoin so that they were able to take advantage of it. And dude, you would crap your pants if I showed you um the amount of because I have a trading group over there as well. And we just absolutely uh we just absolutely destroyed it. Like on that on that dump. Like, I'm gonna I'm gonna show you real quick on the screen because it only takes a second, right? But uh it's it was insane the other night when we when we did that. I'm just trying to bring it up here. Um like the amount of money that was made on that drop was like inappropriately hilarious, right? Like, look look at this. If you're listening, if you're listening on the podcast, guys, uh that we're going through a list of uh leverage trading that we put in on this dump. So uh we got 1000 return on that. Uh you've got 40, 75, 412, 1493, 348%, uh, 101%, 1464, 724%, 425, 380, 518, 967, 474, 1048, 920, like an inappropriate amount of money was made on that drop, right? It was it was amazing. It was amazing. Very nice. We called that dump, and everybody put in shorts, and they just crushed it, man.
SPEAKER_01So okay, so uh outside of the trading on it, though, what do you think about the um the overall market right now? Because I've been seeing on X today that Charles Toskinson over there at at Ada finally said something about I'm taking a break. He's sort of like peace out, like he's he's like burned out. And I guess uh Cardano has multiple projects kind of going under with this latest plummet of of the market. And um, and you know, the the I I guess there's a lot of uh FUD going around, right, with him. I saw another post, and and again, I don't know how real this is, but I saw a post that says something about a a Bitcoin era, Satoshi era wallet dumped like a you know 350 million worth or something like that. And I saw something about Saylor supposedly dumping Bitcoin and BlackRock outflows of the ETFs. What do you think about all that?
SPEAKER_00Well, I haven't found any anything to confirm that uh that uh OG uh Bitcoin wallet dumped any Bitcoin. However, Michael Saylor did sell uh I think he sold a couple of hundred Bitcoin. I think it was like 307 Bitcoin or something like that. It wasn't like a monstrous amount, okay. Um, but 74% of the uh Bitcoin holdings that strategy holds right now is is in a loss. Now I speculated about this probably six to eight months ago when before we really plummeted hard. And again, another thing nobody wanted to hear, right? People always get upset when what you're saying isn't sexy, right?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_00And I I said everyone's like Michael Saylor will never sell. I said, okay, Michael Saylor has a board he has to answer to, right? So if MicroStrategy's cost average on Bitcoin is I I think it's like $74,000 or something like that, okay. So if Bitcoin drops to $50,000 or below, let's say 40 to $50,000, the holdings for strategies, Treasury, because they hold over like 800,000 Bitcoin, right? They are on in a monstrous loss. We're talking probably tens of billions of dollars in the red, unrealized losses, but nevertheless. Right now, the thing is, people who were absolutely loving the price appreciation of strategy stock when Bitcoin was pumping now have to face the realization of the other side of that, where strategy's stock is likely going to plummet along with Bitcoin because of how much they hold. It pumped because of how much they held. Well, what's good for the goose is good for the gander, right? You got to take the crooked with the straights. So now strategies suck. And so the point in that is what do you think that the shareholders are going to say when they are in the red on Bitcoin and it they will be in the red in a bear market at least, probably till halfway to three quarters of the way through 2027? Right?
SPEAKER_01Well, if I was a shareholder, I'd say we're not selling shit.
SPEAKER_00Well, but the here's the thing: you understand the cycle in Bitcoin and stuff. There's a lot of the majority of strategy holders think it's wild and it's crazy and it's fantastic when they were seeing all those gains, but they really don't understand the four-year cycle. They see something plummeting, and you know, it was there's all excitement when it's $126,000, but when it's $50,000 and your cost average is 74, it's not so fun anymore.
SPEAKER_01Hey, did you see where um this was somebody you know, one of these chartists, you know, was looking at the long-term chart of Bitcoin, and they you know, they got the diagonal line, and it was like it broke through one of the long-term trends of Bitcoin. Did you see that? No, yeah, we saw that the other day too.
SPEAKER_00Well, what I can tell you is I chart Bitcoin every day, and like I said, I've been expecting in 2026 a drop down to around $50,000, $55,000, uh, which is perfectly normal. It's right around uh it's it's right around where it should be dropping to for a bottom area, a range. I mean, no one's gonna hit the bottom exactly, but you know, for for a bottom range, and I do see some people saying, like, oh no, this isn't it. But if you really go back over the history of the last three cycles before this, I mean it's it's perfectly in line with exactly that. It's it's just people who don't want to believe. I find that the the herd is generally one step behind, right? And that's why people don't make money when we were consolidating in on Bitcoin uh up around it. We were forming a bear flag, uh, up around, I don't know, in the 90s, 80s, 80s to 90s, we were forming a bear flag there, and they didn't want to come to terms with the fact that we were going into a bear market, right? They give no, we're not in a bear market, we're going up. Then we dropped out of that bear flag and we dropped down here. I'll put it on the screen for those watching. Right? So we were up here, they didn't want to come to terms with the fact that we were forming a bear flag. We we capitulated, we came down now. All through here, from February all the way till now, we were forming yet another bear flag. Again, they didn't want to come to terms with that. We're not in a bear market, we're gonna put in a new high and all that kind of stuff. They're a step behind. This has been a bear market this whole time. So when we capitulate down, this is my target area on a wick, a couple of wicks, 47, 48k, but I think the general bottom is gonna be between 50 and 55 in this range, right? Right, right. So when we get down here, they're going to be, they're finally going to pick capitulate and say, okay, we're starting a bear market. Here's the problem with that. We're not starting a bear market at that point, we're finishing off a bear market, and they don't get their step, their step behind again, right? Yeah, yeah. So then so then what happens is we consolidate here, let's say for six to eight months of accumulation, then we work our way back up into this range over here. We work back up into here, right? The 70s to 80s, and then what are they saying? Well, no, it's just it's a fake pump, it's it's still a bear market, the bear market just began, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Don't you know, don't buy yet. We're going for lower lows. But again, then we make another leg up because they're a step behind, and then they're buying here, and they're like, Oh, maybe we are going into the start of a bull. You know what I mean? Like they're just they're always that one step behind the herd, right? Because they don't want to, they're emotionally judging the market, right? Instead of just accepting that this, like all through here, between uh 62 and 82k, I was I've been accumulating today's day 113 of accumulation for me in this bear market every day. 113 days, and I've uh with the with the knowledge that we are likely coming down into this range, right? Right, and I will I will become more aggressive down here. Right? But the herd again, always one step behind, and I think that's why uh people don't either don't make as much money as they could or don't make any money at all. Uh take Jasmine for an example. Uh I did a video the other day talking about Jasmine, and you know, because people are like, oh, Jasmine didn't give any, like nobody made any money on Jasmine last cycle. So if you were buying the bottom of Jasmine in 2023, was the bottom around what two zeros uh two seven, I believe, something along those lines. If you were buying in that range to the top, which was I believe was around December for Jasmine specifically of 2024, so you only had to buy and hold for two years. Jasmine gave back over a 2,000% return going to six cents in the last cycle. And people are saying, well, Jasmine didn't make anybody any money.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, those are people who bought the top, right? Mm-hmm. So what do you think about um with this the the Bitcoin bloodbath? What do you think about this idea? I heard this the other day too, and it got me thinking. Was um somebody was saying, you know, right now the the big investment play that exists is pretty much all things AI, right? Whether it's Nvidia, it's chips, you know, it's um, you know, the the looming IPOs of I think uh anthropic and open AI. And are those just a better opportunity right now than holding Bitcoin? What do you think about that?
SPEAKER_00Um well, first I want to go back to your first question because I I I kind of missed part of it. The second reason that we dumped the way that we did is because they kicked the Clarity Act Can down the road last night. Okay. Yeah, now let's talk about that too. Yeah, we'll stick a ta we'll stick a pin in that for now. Remind me and we'll go back to it, right? Right, right. Um, so to fast forward back to what you're what you're asking now. I think that uh Bitcoin is being viewed as more of like something that companies at this point will put into their treasuries. Uh it was being uh herald as uh hedge, but that's not really working out, right? Right now. Uh it was in 2025, but not right now. So I just think that yes, uh, as we know, liquidity is like a river, it's always flowing somewhere. Money is never, never standing still. Money is never still water, right? It's always somewhere. And I do believe that yes, right now, considering the macro with Iran, the oil situation, the Strait of Harmoose, inflation is on the is creeping up again. Um, there's even like a 30% chance of a rate hike now this year on polymarket. Uh, all of these things add uncertainty to markets, and I think that what we're seeing is people fleeing to yes, AI stocks for sure, uh, because AI is literally being integrated into everything right now. So why would you not, right? Um, and obviously, still precious metals. The SP 500 uh is still doing absolutely because it's being led though, people don't understand. They're like, well, why are stocks pumping but not crypto? Well, because like you just alluded to, the AI sector is pulling up the entire SP 500, in my opinion, right? And but that will change. That will change, and a lot of degenerate money is also in prediction markets right now. I believe that that fad is starting to fade a little bit. I don't think it's gonna go away, but I think people will eventually get bored of it and go back to their meme coins and their NFTs and you know all that kind of stuff. They'll get they'll get bored, just like they got bored with NFTs and meme coins, they'll go back to it again.
SPEAKER_01What do you think about the idea that let's say Bitcoin is at least temporarily sort of on the shelf, and maybe the real gem of crypto is stable coins. What do you think about that? Because, you know, I I I've kind of encountered this in my personal or professional life recently, where traditional finance doesn't want anything to do with crypto, period. They just don't. You know, it's it's like if it's got that crypto tag on it, they're like, nope, hard no, right? But you know, one of the big pushes of Coinbase right now is USDC. And you know, you you and I have talked about that before about USDC and how you know obviously they're making money on this thing. But regardless of that, you know, the the point about USDC is that you can have smart contract automation without the volatility of the crazy ups and downs of the of the crypto market and manipulation and all this shit. And I I just kind of wonder, you know, like I wonder if maybe the real gem of of this thing is sort of the stablecoin side of it, because that's where you could really incorporate it into like TradFi. Whereas Bitcoin, you know, obviously Sailor is a great example of trying to incorporate it or BlackRock, but you know, they've been at least BlackRock dumped the hell out of it recently. And I'm I'm assuming they probably put all that money into AI, you know, something like that. I don't know. What do you think about it?
SPEAKER_00I think that uh in terms of stable coins, yes. I mean, all the major institutions are obviously uh trying to get ahead of it because they're just they're trying to uh get the the infrastructure put in place right now because I think it's clear that we are eventually and inevitably moving to a cashless society. Stable coins is obviously the next step in that. I just think it's funny personally, on a side note, that they went and said that we made sure that the Fed can never make a C B D C. All they did was put a brand new shiny sticker on C B D C called stable coin, and then they can still freeze your money, they can still control it, they can still see it, right? Like they just put a brand new sticker on and said, Yeah, no C B D C's, here's a stable coin, right? Yeah, so yeah, I think that and people fell for it. I think that's hilarious. But um as far as banks not wanting anything to do with crypto, uh, I disagree with that. I think that they're they're still in the final stages of battling. Like Jamie Diamond came out last week and said, No, we're s we're uh and that's probably one of the reasons this the Clarity Act is being kicked down the road because they're still not satisfied with the yield that uh on stable coins is supposed that that whole topic, uh, which is obvious banks want to be able to stop exchanges from offering yield on stable coins because they say that uh there'll be a bank run and people will put all of their money into stable coins and stake them for 5% yield as opposed to 0.05% yield at the bank. The problem and the hole in that is that uh exchanges like Coinbase have been offering yield, I believe, for seven years on stable coins, and there hasn't been a bank run on banks, but there's been like a 5% yield on average, I think, for USDC, USDT, uh, and stuff. So for me, that argument doesn't hold water, but I think it's just our way of trying to keep profits in their pocket in their pocket, obviously. Um, and I think that the next step that we're moving towards, I just read an article on it last night, is now banks are wanting to move towards custody.
SPEAKER_01Ah, there you go. There's the rub.
SPEAKER_00Yes, they want custody crypto, which is a double-edged sword for you and I as retail investors, because while we don't want banks to offer custody and compete with exchanges, because I mean we all know the tricks of the trade, the TradFi like to do, they scam you in every way possible so that they make money and you don't. They make money off your money while you don't make anything, yeah. And but the plus side to that for us as early investors in solid plays is that if you ever truly want the majority of uh retail investors, for example, just in the United States, right, to ever actually be involved to that liquidity to come into crypto, because right now they're not, we are the minority as investors in this space, then it's gonna have to be as easy as farmer Joe picking up his phone, calling his his bank and saying, buy me some Bitcoin, buy me some XRP, buy me some Solana, buy me some Ethereum, use the money mic, whatever.
SPEAKER_01And then he's also saying that don't buy me any Cardano. No, don't buy that.
SPEAKER_00But that's that's the that's the simplicity that we need to see come into the space that banks can and will provide. Because Farmer Joe or or you know, Sue the Shopper, they don't want to learn KYC and self-custody and you know how to make an account on an exchange and how to swap from stablecoin to to Ethereum and you know how to go from network. They don't they don't want to learn how to do all that stuff, it's far too tech savvy for them, right? They want to call the bank and say, buy this for me, and they buy it for them, just like you can do with uh uh mutual funds or whatever at your bank, right?
SPEAKER_01You know what's interesting is I think that crypto, like crypto's an easy target to sort of brand it badly, right? You know what I mean? Because there's not really a big lobby representing it, and obviously Coinbase figured that out and they've been trying to build a crypto lobby, but you know, I I think across the board, you know, crypto is sort of branded as this chaotic roller coaster, straight up, straight down, volatility, train wreck, unregulated. But the the kind of funny thing is like in the traditional market, like in the stock market in the US, you know, most trading. Is high frequency trading now, right? Which can go straight up or straight down on any given day. Now, the interesting thing is they do have um these like circuit breakers that they put in the market. So if it drops too fast uh too far, too far too fast, then they they hard stop the market for like five minutes. If it doesn't again, they hard stop that bitch again. You know, they just keep drawing the brakes and until it's it's like it stabilizes, right? But in crypto, you don't have that. And so I mean, like the last couple days, I mean, Bitcoin's been straight down, and it's like I feel like the people on the sideline are like, see, we're not touching that shit, you know.
SPEAKER_00It's that meme. You ever see that meme? The guy's like uh Bitcoin's at 126,000. It's like, oh, I wish I had bought more when it was 50. Bitcoin's back at 50k. I ain't buying that shit.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I'm not buying that.
SPEAKER_00It's going to zero. Jamie Diamond said so. Right. Mike, you know, Peter Schiff. I believe him. Oh gosh. Yeah. I asked uh I asked Grok um what Peter Schiff's uh success rate is by percentage in his crypto predictions. He has been wrong so many times that even AI could not calculate how many times he had been wrong about his.
SPEAKER_01But how many times has he successfully moved the goalposts? 60% of the time it works every time.
SPEAKER_00Every time. Good times. Uh uh going back to the Clarity Act, yeah. Um yes, uh, so it got kicked, the can got kicked down the road apparently last night. I haven't seen all the details on it yet, but if it doesn't get done by the end of this month, then it's now a September thing.
SPEAKER_01Oh god.
SPEAKER_00Right? So we went from March to April to May, and now we're in June, and now it's September.
SPEAKER_01Okay, so let's kind of let's kind of talk about that a little bit. The effect of this current administration in the US on the markets and on all of this, because it directly impacts all of it, right? And you know, typically, again, this this is where things are, you know, like kids growing up right now that are seeing this, they think this is how it always was, and it's never been like this. Never. Like you usually there it's far more stable. You know, the president actually fucking hires people and fills qualified people in roles, not this dipshit, you know, what he's doing. So you have all these weird vacancies and stuff. And then on top of that, you usually have like like the president is is usually cares about his political career to the point that he wants to win and he needs a win somewhere, right? And so it's like, yeah, you know, I I need a win on this big bill or that bill or this thing. And under Trump 2.0, we don't have shit. There's no wins, there's nothing. You know, if if the only win you could say was that he blew up half the White House, he wants to have a UFC fight on the lawn, which is just absurd, and and he's got no political wins. And if anything, this the Clarity Act is that thing that could be his win. But, you know, like I mean, I don't know if you've seen lately, I mean, like, his health is like going straight down the toilet. So he's sort of checked out. The people around him don't know shit, and the longer they kick this down the road, the less a chance it actually gets approved, you know?
SPEAKER_00Well, well, here's my here's my stance on it. I don't want the Clarity Act to pass this year. Now that's just me being selfish. I don't want it to pass this year. I don't want it to pass until around I don't want it to pass until post-Bitcoin halving. Ah, I see where you're going with this. Right? Why would you want one of the largest catalysts in the in the digital asset space to pass in the bottom of a bear market where there's no liquidity? Will you get a pump? Probably, but it'll sell off right away within a couple of weeks. However, you get the Clarity Act, the catalyst that monstrous passing post-Bitcoin having, when you're rallying up towards the end, the peak of a four-year cycle, the amount of liquidity that could pour into the space is absolutely monstrous, right?
SPEAKER_01Now, do you think Trump's gonna live that long?
SPEAKER_00Live or my goodness, with the with the yeah, this just seems like someone's running up on him all the time these days. Um I I I think even that is becoming a little bit uh people are becoming numb to it. It's kind of how how sad is it that the world that we live in when something like that happening, uh we're we're be it's becoming like not front page news anymore. It's like, yeah, whatever, someone made a run at the White House again. Whatever.
SPEAKER_01No, I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about his health.
SPEAKER_00Oh, his health. I I have honestly have not been following along with his health at all.
SPEAKER_01So I can't really Okay, so he has had a massive bruise on the top of one of his hands, like he's been getting like a daily IV into his hand. Okay. Um, he's got some massive weird thing on his neck. He just the other day went to Walter Reed for his third visit of the year, right? His third one. Um supposedly he hadn't been seen in like something like eight days, right? And so it seems like his health, I mean, he's definitely got signs of dementia, is going straight down the crapper and it's it's kind of accelerating, right? And so I wonder, like personally, I don't think he's gonna live through the whole four years. Just my own personal belief. And that doesn't have anything to do with anyone else, just his health alone. I I don't I just don't see him making it, you know. I think he's he's hanging on by like a thread right now. And I know he's taking um four times the dose of extra strength aspirin per day. So an insane amount of blood thinners he's taking. His skin is got to be like paper thin. You know, he bumps up the against the desk the wrong way, he he'll start bleeding. And so I I think he's probably gonna die at some point, truthfully. That that's what I think. Now, the interesting thing with that is if that happens and Vance takes over, right? I mean, Vance is a lot younger, he's a little bit more of a chameleon. Um, I don't know, you know, he really doesn't have any big wins for him himself personally, so it would definitely be in his best interest to be more of a traditional presidency at that point and start racking up some wins with Congress, you know, especially especially since you know he's probably going to run. He has to. He's the VP. I mean, he has to, you know.
SPEAKER_00And even if Trump's still around, he can't run again. So, I mean, it's obviously Vance is is your number one candidate going into the next cycle. So and he's not as hated. He's not as hated as I mean, the people who hate him only hate him because he's Trump's vice president. Let's be honest. They don't really have a valid reason to hate him outside of that, right?
SPEAKER_01Well, yeah, you know, the thing with Vance is you know, like like everybody in the Trump cabinet, there's there's like, you know, unfortunately, there's like a record of all of these past interviews and all these things that they've said. And there, you know, there's there's tons of shit with him where he he's saying the exact opposite thing of what he's saying today, you know. So I do think he's sort of he's like a survivalist, right? Like he's surviving whichever way he can. But what's interesting with that is he has survived up up until this point. So if Trump suddenly died, right, would the would that be a catalyst to the markets or or maybe to to say that hey, you know, all that instability, now we got this guy. Let's let's see what happens, right? I mean, it's it's almost like his slate gets wiped clean a little bit, and maybe that's the next big catalyst for the markets, truthfully.
SPEAKER_00It could be, yeah. But going back to the Clarity Act, yeah, I I don't want it to pass. So the more it gets kicked down the road, the the happier I am about it. Uh, it's the same thing, it it reminds me of XRP in the bear market of 2022. Uh when it I I it's just coincidence, but I made a video about a week before XRP got legal clarity by Annalisa Torres, right? Which is was the judge for those listening in the case, um, that it was not a security. And I made a video about a week beforehand because we're in the bottom of a bear market, and I was seeing all of this this narrative being pushed about how the second XRP gets clarity, it's gonna be five to ten dollars. No, no, and yeah, we're in a bottom of a bear market. So I made a video and I was like, guys, listen, I give it 80 to 90 cents, right? Tops, tops. It was like 35 cents, I think, at the time or something. Yeah, right. I said 80 to 90 cents, and it's because we're in a bear market, there's no money. Where's the money gonna come from to put it to to you? Think that everyone's just gonna pull their money out of gold and silver in the stock market to just throw it all into XRP because it got legal clarity in terms of not being as secure. Nobody cares in a bear market, right? Like there's no money, it doesn't make sense. So sure enough, it hit exactly like 89 cents or something like that, came all the way back down to like 60 cents, and uh, I think it worked its way all the way back down between 40 and 50 cents eventually. And it's it's it's not sustainable in a bear market. People need to understand that, right? Too many, I think it's content creators, uh, it's it's largely content creators' fault that cover crypto because we talk so much about potential catalysts, and it's because it is educational, you have to be up to date on what's happening with projects and companies you're investing in, right? But so so when we talk about these catalysts, people take that as the only way that a crypto project pumps is because of catalysts. Like, I literally have people ask me that, like, well, we have no catalyst coming, so why would this pump? I'm like, are you are you serious? Like, do you not understand anything about investing whatsoever, or markets or charting, or like it doesn't work that way, right? Liquidity pumps things, not catalysts. You can get cat, you can get pumps from catalysts, but those are temporary, those are band-aids on the project, right? That's what I call them. It's just it's just a band-aid to the to the bleeding. And people, but people rely on it and they think that that's the only thing that that matters. And it's really not. I try to tell people if you're investing in crypto projects, you should have at least an eight-year mindset. You should have two full cycles, right? Before you make money that can help you be debt-free, maybe retire from your job forever. I've never met anybody who made life-changing wealth in a quicker time than eight years, two cycles. A cycle and a half, two cycles. It's just unless you get lucky. I mean, there is some people who just happen to be coming in right now into the bottom of a bear market and buying crypto who are new. You get lucky, you buy, but are those people strong enough and smart enough to hold for four full years? For the you know, that's another question. But then you also get the odd person who throws, I don't know, 800 bucks into a meme coin and it hits eight million dollars or something. But for that one person to win, hundreds of thousands of people have to lose. And by percentages, what are the chances you're that one guy versus you're one of the 100,000 people that lost, right?
SPEAKER_01What do what do you think about um, you know, like right now, obviously the inflation is like insane. It's it's completely insane across the board on you know every facet of life. What do you think about people simply that are like, hey, you know, I wanted I wanted to hold Bitcoin or I wanted to hold crypto, but you know, I can't pay my car insurance, right? Do you think that's having an effect on this right now?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I mean, people's purse strings are definitely tighter right now in the economy. I mean, when when the price of eggs and milk and you know, even just basic necessities is you know ridiculously priced, uh then yes. And I'm gonna be honest with you here. I think that we're just seeing the tip of the iceberg. I think that with the Strait of Harmoose being closed and oil shortages, I don't even think we've started to see the effects of inflation on the economy because of that.
SPEAKER_01Well, you know, in the U.S., they keep talking about how the strategic petroleum reserve is the lowest it's been since the early 80s. Like the these are like uh warning, warning alarms going off. Like the canary in the coal mine is like chirping loudly, Trump's not doing jack shit, and it's kind of like getting worse and worse and worse. And you know how many times he said there's a deal on the Straight of Hormoose? I mean, he said it like like over a hundred times. There's never a deal, there's never anything. I don't even know if if they're even talking to anybody on the other side of this thing.
SPEAKER_00And I I've said I've said for a while now that I wouldn't be shocked if we revisit this in the first quarter of 2027 and we're still dealing with this this Iran situation. Yeah, uh, it could very people don't understand. This could very quickly and easily evolve into an Afghanistan situation. What was that over a decade? Was it supposed to be? But it was 20 years, yeah. Two decades. Yeah. Right? It could very quickly turn into something like that, and people need to understand that. Um, and it's going to affect the world's economies. I personally I think the big problem here on a global scale, it's not just Trump and the US that have an issue with it. It's that Iran is trying to basically turn the Street of Harmuz into uh a source of revenue globally. They're trying to get people to pay them to use the Street of Harmuz, right? And obviously, you can't do that, right?
SPEAKER_01So I don't know, they kind of can because they have the geography. How are you gonna beat them?
SPEAKER_00Well, they have the geography, but at the end of the day, I think that if the states and other countries, I mean, if they really wanted to, they could put a stop to this pretty quickly with a couple of strikes. I mean, it's gonna require boots on the ground, it's gonna be a it's I'm not saying they're not gonna get a bloody nose. I'm just saying that uh I just it's unfortunate, and I I really hate saying it because I don't believe in this kind of thing, but if they don't just do something and get it over with, this is gonna drag on much, much longer than people think.
SPEAKER_01I I don't see them doing that, man. Like, you know, the the big bomb they dropped, you know, on the nuclear facility or whatever, that didn't do shit. Then they came out, they did this latest thing, you know, they blew up their unarmed warship, pissed them off. Um, they just had something like yesterday where they fired ballistics missiles into like the Kuwait base for the U.S. I mean, like, like they're taking massive damage, and they're not reporting shit in the U.S. on anything, literally anything. And so uh supposedly uh Iran is using train lines to get the oil or whatever out of there, you know, with now that the US has it blockaded. I mean, it's it's a stalemate, and unfortunately, the the president is like checked out, he doesn't give a shit. And so so the reality is is the rest of us are are suffering suffering these ripple effects, which are which are just crazy. And you know, kind of like going back to car insurance. So I've been dealing with this, right? So my son um started driving on his own in the last couple months, right? Added him to the car insurance, okay. So normally, normally with my wife and I on the car insurance, it's like 350, 360 a month. Neither one of us has had like an accident or anything in 20 years. It's 360 a month. We had him on there, now it's $780. Okay. Like, like it's it's like, okay, like, I mean, I'm looking at it, I'm going, all right, now I know what what our uh like we have two cars, they're both paid off. Okay, fine. But at the same time, like I know what they're valued at, and I'm thinking, if I pay this full price for a year or two, that's like paying the full value of the cars. Like I'm I'm not gonna do this, you know what I mean? And so I wonder, like, you know, kind of going back to tying this back to the markets and in this current weird stage we're in. Um I wonder if people are pulling money here and there because they're simply like, look, like I can't afford to live in these with these insane prices. And even, you know, it like obviously it goes well beyond gas, but gas affects everything because all of the logistics are done by truck, you know, semi-trucks, right? So I mean, that affects everything, jet fuel affects everything, just shipping through, you know, FedEx and U UPS and all whatever whatever shipping channel you're using. Um, it's it's all driven by this. And the longer that they let it go, it's it's gonna keep getting more and more and more expensive. And at some point, I mean there there's clearly a breaking point. I mean, people can't invest if they don't have any money, you know.
SPEAKER_00Another red flag is that for the last two years or so, we've we've heard nothing but discussion about rate cuts, not only in on X and among professionals, but also from the Fed itself in terms of their response to the questions about rate cuts and stuff. That's the only that's only really been the discussion on the table. But over the last two months, we're starting to see discussions, not not insinuations that it's gonna happen, but now we're starting to see the Fed talk about rate hikes.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, they have to if the if the inflation's insane. You you can't cut rates with runaway inflation, and you're gonna have runaway inflation if you can't bring bring down the price of oil. Yeah, you know.
SPEAKER_00I think oil took a hit today, it came down a little bit today, but nevertheless, um the situation doesn't resolve itself. And and like I said, people think it's bad right now. We haven't even it takes it takes a quarter or two for the economy to start feeling the effects of inflation and these kind of things. So it's it's we're still a couple of months away from actually feeling uh the effects of this kind of stuff, and you know, the price is going up higher, and you know.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, yeah. It's a it's a mess, truthfully. And I I I do feel like this is weighing on the markets across the board, regardless of the Bitcoin cycle and you know its ups and downs and the roller coaster and all that. I do think just sort of in general, um, like I was saying, going back to traditional presidents, they're far more conservative. They usually have a win or two in Congress, especially when they've got like all of the I mean, he's got everything in his pocket right now, and he can't do shit. It's it's like bizarre, you truthfully. I mean, you'd you'd think he'd have some wins, you know.
SPEAKER_00Well, that this is what's been frustrating me over the last couple of months, is I'm on my channel, my crypto channel, and I'm I'm telling people, like, look, we're going down further, we're going like we're in a bear market, and it's gonna be a while, right? And I'm seeing all of these other content creators, like this, this this like viral trending perception that once the Clarity Act passes, all of a sudden markets are just gonna boom and everything's gonna go parabolic. And I'm like, guys, there's a fucking war going on, and inflation is on the rise, right? Like, we're talking rate hikes now at the Fed. What are you talking about? Are we just pretending these things aren't happening? And we're just well, the Clarity Act passed, so all of a sudden, everything Bitcoin's going to new all time highs. And like, okay, let's just pretend everything the macroeconomic situation that there's absolutely zero economic. Appetite for risk on assets, let's just pretend that doesn't exist, right? Yeah, yeah. It's like people, and then and then people respond to you like you don't know what you're talking about. Oh, I don't know what I'm talking about. Oh okay. Hey, you're pretending a war's not happening, and I'm the idiot.
SPEAKER_01You know what? I I watched a video with Hoskinson going back to Cardano, and it was one of his recent ones. And he he was basically like, What do you want me to do? He's like, I'm yes, I'm like one of the creators of it, but he's like, I can't, I can't do anything. He's like, I can't even hard fork anything. He said, It's with the foundation. He he's basically like, I can't do anything to affect the price of Cardano right now. And he got to the point, like, like, kind of like you, where you know, he's he's been doing this, I mean, weekly, daily for it over five years. And uh apparently he was just like, I I've gotta leave. Like, I've I've had my quota. I don't want to talk to any of you. And you know, he's got like a uh he lives on like a ranch in like Colorado, like he's got all kinds of like sheep and you know fun stuff like that. I'm sure he just turned the computer off, said, The hell with this went outside, you know.
SPEAKER_00Didn't he uh didn't he he did the same thing in the last bear market too? Uh people forget. I believe he went on an excursion to the Arctic. Yeah, I don't know if you remember that or not, but he uh he went, he told everybody, I'm going up there. He went up there with a bunch of other people, um, and he said there's no there's no internet, there's no reception, so you won't hear from me for I think it was like a month or something like that. And he was he went up there. I don't think he lasted the full month. Yeah, it was like some sort of like uh I can't remember because it was wintertime, it was just like always dark. And he he was talking about how the the uh it's it's a test of endurance to be able to mentally and emotionally tolerate just always being in the dark, and there's something along those lines. And uh he didn't last. I think he was there for like a week and a half, two weeks, he was gone or something. He came back, but this isn't the first time that Charles has taken a hiatus, and really, who gives a shit? I mean it's a bear market, right? Like anyone who anyone who's bugging the devs of a team saying do something to pump the price in the bottom of a bear market is a fucking idiot, anyways. Yeah, yeah, right? Like, I'm sorry to say it, but you might not be an idiot, you might just be new, right?
SPEAKER_01But but then again, you know, you know, like you know, going back to Jasmine and Hara, I mean, you gotta have thick skin in this thing because it it doesn't matter what you do when you're when you're a founder, when you're the head of a project or whatever, whatever you put out there, you you're gonna take shit in those comments no matter what. That you know, there's there's always a a never-ending line of goons ready to you know tell you you suck, you know, and I'm sure he probably just had enough, you know, and Hoskinson was like, That's it. Like, I'm taking a break.
SPEAKER_00Let's be honest, Charles does bring a lot of it on himself. I mean, how many times has that guy attacked the XRP community now? He just did it again recently. Did he? Okay, with the whole Clarity Act, he went right after Brad. And I was at the XRP Las Vegas Las Vegas event, as you know, and Brad brought up a good point while he was on stage uh about and he was talking about Charles because Charles was saying, well, you know, of course Brad and XR uh Ripple are fine with everything, uh, because like they have legal clarity and nobody else does, and blah blah blah. And Brad's on stage and he goes, You know what, Charles? Yes, yes, we could say screw you and screw everybody else. We have legal clarity, later suckers, and we could say, no, don't pass the clarity act, right? We're fine without it. We could do that, but we're not. We're here, we're fighting for the Clarity Act for the space and stuff. It's a valid point, right?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, yeah. I I I wonder what uh what Brian Armstrong and Coinbase is thinking right now with the Clarity Act being delayed again and the market kind of you know cratering at the moment. I wonder where they're at.
SPEAKER_00Um, and to be honest with you, I I don't. It's funny because for some reason people see uh Armstrong as like this white knight for the crypto space, and it's it's just not the case. He's a white knight for his own pocketbook. Coinbase is fighting for their own revenue, they're not fighting for their customers uh who are using their platform or anything like that. They're not fighting for you, me, or anybody else to get yield. They're they're fighting for their piece of the pie against Jamie Diamond and the big banks. That's that's what they're doing. We're watching a fight between two behemoths, and neither one of them has your best interests at heart. You don't have a horse in this race, y'all.
SPEAKER_01You know what's interesting with Coinbase? Um, Brian Armstrong, I think I might have told you this a while back. He did an interview with uh Sean Ryan show, right? I don't know if you watch Sean Ryan at all. He's on YouTube. Anyway, Brian Armstrong goes on there and does a show, and it was like a two and a two and a half hour interview, pretty long one. And um he talked about like the early formation of Coinbase in the early days and whatnot. And the interesting thing was, way back when he was starting it, he sort of saw that, hey, you know, these digital assets, there could be something really neat here, and just sort of in transferring money. But he never really had the idea of like, let's become an exchange, you know, let's let's be that that thing where people can get their crypto. Like he he never really that really was never the point. It just sort of oddly kind of evolved into that. And I think in saying that, like you said, at the end of the day, it's it's a company, right? And the company needs to be profitable. And not only that, it's a publicly traded company, right? So, I mean, they have shareholders they're beholden to, and uh, and they really got to do whatever they can to keep the company profitable. And it's it's in their best interest to have more and more use of uh USDC, right? The stable coin in particular. And truthfully, I mean they they really don't even care about Bitcoin. I mean, yeah, yeah, they use it, and yeah, it's like a symbol of the market, but I think you know, like their focus is solely on stable coins.
SPEAKER_00Well, and and here's the thing you you're right, and it the reason is because USDC uh yield accounts for 19% of their annual revenue, which I think is like $2.3 billion or something like that. It's between like $1.9 and $2.3 billion or something, right? That's what they care about.
SPEAKER_01Yeah.
SPEAKER_00And here's the thing, I'm not even saying that in a way that's like, you know, bad, bad them, you know, like it is what it is. They're a company, like you said, they they gotta stay profitable. But for some reason, there's this there's this imaginary world where people think that he's fighting on behalf of crypto holders or something. Like, are you are you stupid? Like he's fighting for 19% of his annual revenue, not yours, his.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, yeah. You know, I I I think in the in the markets overall right now, I kind of think the same thing is true of just sort of where we're at in a timeline as as a society where it's kind of like, give me something to believe in. Give me something to believe in, give me some hope, give me, give me something, you know, like come on. You know, like we gotta work something out somewhere. Eventually, somebody with a brain needs to get involved in the Iran thing, and let's let's sort it out and move on. You know, like like you know, these stalemates are just bad across the board, you know, like the Ukraine-Russia stalemate, you know, like it's bad across the board, you know, like there has to be a deal somewhere. Now, obviously, one in one country is an imperialist shithead and the other one's defending itself. I get it. But, you know, like we got to have a win somewhere, you know, like for things to move forward. And I I think it's just sort of it's it's like it's all compounding at the same time. It's like pancaking on all this all this negative shit, you know?
SPEAKER_00Yeah. I agree. And the thing is also that that people need to understand is that you know, while some of the macro stuff is dumping markets, this dump was inevitable no matter how you slice it. Yeah, right? The Clarity Act passing today. If it passed today, would we see a pump back up? Maybe 80, maybe 90k? Probably, but you're still just delaying the inevitable. We still will see that bear market bottom come in because it's a bear market. Bear markets happen in every single asset class, whether you emotionally want them to or not. Right? So that's why it's best that the Clarity Act, and it's just my opinion, doesn't pass right now. It's not the the timing is not great for it to pass.
SPEAKER_01Now, the question though is is AI the better investment opportunity?
SPEAKER_00Right now, I don't think so. Because I think yeah, I think you'd be one of the people buying the relative top at this point. You think so? I think that the time to start getting in on that kind of stuff was two years ago, right? Like it's probably not the tippy top, but uh you're you're buying a relative high at this point if you're just entering the AI sector now.
SPEAKER_01You know, one of my uh good friends he he talks to me regularly about how he thinks AI is in a bubble, and his justification of this is that none of the AI platforms are charging enough to account for the amount of like the data centers and all this infrastructure, all this shit, you know, that they need to fund these models and to actually make this thing work um the way it is. And you know, I mean, like chat GPT is free, you know, Gemini to an extent's free. Obviously, Claude, you have to pay for, but you know, maybe there, I I don't know. Would it do you think there's a bubble there or or not? Or what what do you think?
SPEAKER_00I don't think it's a bubble, no. Uh if it is a bubble, I don't think we're anywhere near the the ready to burst on it. I think we're just kind of getting started with AI in terms of uh the integration into our society and stuff like that. It's still, I mean, it's still relatively new, right? Uh there's still a lot of lot of bugs to be worked out when it comes to AI. So um I don't think so. You want to know what sector I think people should be focusing on right now? Energy.
SPEAKER_01Energy.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. What do you think? It's what it takes to make to develop AI and uh or stuff like uh GPU, uh GPU processing power, companies that specialize in that as well, because again, that's what's used to develop AI. So I wouldn't be looking to invest in AI, I would be looking to invest in the necessities to develop AI.
SPEAKER_01Ah, there you go. There you go. You're you're the guy selling the shovel to the gold rush, is what you're telling me. Exactly. You know, it's it's funny you say that. I saw a post just the other day about the largest data center in the US was supposedly, and I don't know how true this was, but it was a post. It said was supposedly just approved in Utah, and it said the data center was going to be bigger than Manhattan, and it was going to require more water than the entire state of Utah uses today to to keep this thing cool.
SPEAKER_00I don't know, but what I am hearing is that countries are like China's one of them, and the US are looking at making uh data centers in space now instead.
SPEAKER_01That's that's a good take. I mean, it stays cold there, right?
SPEAKER_00Solar power.
SPEAKER_01Yep, solar power, it would stay cool.
SPEAKER_00Um that sounds more realistic than a data center the size of Manhattan.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, that sounds insane, doesn't it? It's like what? Like, huh? Like how do how does like just the infrastructure of that would have to be insane. I mean, this is like it makes me think of I don't know, do you have Buckeys up there in Canada? Do you have Buckeys? The gas station? Okay, so so here in the US, uh, there's this like mega gas station called Buckeys. And it it like came out of Texas, and you know, the model of Texas is like everything's bigger in Texas or whatever. So Bucky's is like that, right? So you go there, there's like 200 gas pumps, it's like the size of a Walmart. There's like 30,000 people in there, you know, getting their sandwiches and all their custom Bucky shit, you know. And uh it don't get me wrong, uh like as a family, we love Buckeys. It's it's a it's it's a lot of fun to go there, and they do have good food. Um, but you know, the the when I think about Buckys, I think about like, God, like how do they even process like the sanitation of this place? Like the amount of you know, stuff going through the sewer pipes of this place, the all the gas lines, the all this stuff, you know, that has to be there just for one location is crazy. And then you start yeah, yeah, you start thinking about these like crazy data center projects for AI, and you go, how I mean what like how are how are they gonna pull this off?
SPEAKER_00Yeah. I think I think doing it in space is the smart idea. You're also not taking up real estate when you do that, right?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, yeah, but but how do you how do you build that at scale, you know, in space? I don't know.
SPEAKER_00Well you got lots you've got lots of room, right?
SPEAKER_01You know what's funny? Um, I don't know if you've ever seen it. There's um there's like some graphics that people have put together that shows the amount of satellites around Earth, and you know, going back in time where you know it starts with like Sputnik, right? And now it's like the entire Earth is surrounded, like they are everywhere, like the Starlink's and all this stuff, and uh you know, all whatever's floating up there, and it's kind of like you know, if you're gonna be building out there, you you gotta have a way to move all your materials there, you know.
SPEAKER_001842 Ford comes floating by yeah, there's gotta be some way to do it.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, you know, I don't know if you ever heard of have you ever heard of the space elevator? This is a cool concept. You just have an elevator and goes to space that could take it like a train line.
SPEAKER_00I've heard I've heard the concept of it.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, it's kind of wild.
SPEAKER_00Uh from what I heard, one of the plans though, in terms of resources, even water, is uh mining asteroids. Right? Uh very which is a very good idea because it's it's if you can mine uh water from asteroids, for example, um, and and other precious metals, right, that that are required for construction of whatever it is that you need, uh space stations, whatever, uh data centers, you don't have to think about the cost alone of trying to bring up gall like I don't even know, an insane amount of water from Earth to space. You know how heavy that is, you know how much fuel consumption that would cost to do that, right? But if they could mine it directly from asteroids, just makes more sense, right?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, okay. So, all right, so I know we're up against the hour. Final thoughts on the Bitcoin bloodbath and current state of the market.
SPEAKER_00Uh, I don't think it's over. I think we're gonna see a bit of a relief rally up to about 68,225 to or maybe even 70,000 to test resistance before rejection. Uh RSI is very oversold right now. Like we're talking teens now at this point, I think. Yep. So on the daily time frame. So I do think that a relief rally is in the cards, but uh the worst is not over, in my opinion. I think 50 to 55k, maybe 4748 on a couple of wicks. But uh strap in, baby.
SPEAKER_01Okay, you and you're not buying AI, you're buying energy.
SPEAKER_00I'm buying energy, yeah. I I've had a running uh a running buy every Tuesday. My bank automatically buys me uh um basket of stocks in the energy sector, and also they throw in like Nvidia and you know stuff like that, uh Microsoft, Meta, just but those are like 10 to 15 year holds.
SPEAKER_01So yeah, yeah, something a little more stable.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, but energy. I'm big in energy right now. That's my that's my target. Uh it's gonna be massive uh requirements.
SPEAKER_01So let me let me ask you one last thing. So, in terms of something to believe in, what's what's the next big catalyst for the market? What do you see on the horizon?
SPEAKER_00I don't honestly, I don't think it's the Clarity Act or the end to the war. I don't think either one of those is gonna happen anytime soon, so I don't think it's either one of them. Okay. Um I think the next big catalyst. There was something that I was expecting to happen. Uh, I think the next big catalyst will be, and it's not gonna be anytime soon, the resume, resuming of rate cuts next year.
SPEAKER_01Next year, yeah, yeah. You know, I I think along those same lines, I would say I think the next big catalyst is gonna be Trump kicks the bucket, Vance takes over, and he sort of stabilizes this crazy uncertainty that we've been in, right? I I could see that happening because he needs he needs the wins politically if he's gonna be around, right? So he's gotta he's gotta get a couple wins under his belt. There's an incentive there. So I I could see that.
SPEAKER_00I got a sleeper bad catalyst for the market. Ooh. Yes. Bitcoin drops to 50, 55k, strategy dumps a shitload of Bitcoin and crashes it down to 40, 35 to 40. Sleeper catalyst for negative. That is a definitive buy.
SPEAKER_01Ooh, ouch! I I can see that happening. You know, you might be onto something there.
SPEAKER_00It's not all up to sailor like people think.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Hmm. Interesting. So it could get a little uglier. So, bottom line, strap in. Your car insurance is gonna be through the roof. Your price of eggs is 10 bucks. Gonna have to get some chickens or something.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, start going to the farmer's market.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, yeah, we all gotta cut corners, you know. So, anyway, keep holding on, right? Exactly.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, and just what I would say to close it out is just guys, ebbs and flows, peaks and uh peaks and valleys. Just because there's no appetite for risk on assets right now doesn't mean that there won't be ever again. You gotta remember that. And millionaires and life-changing wealth is made uh in the red, not in the green.
SPEAKER_01Great point, great point. I and you know, I would also say that I think if you can make it through adversity, you usually end up stronger on the other side, right? So it's all about surviving, right? And adapting. And that I think that's kind of what everybody's got to do at the moment. Sort of adapt, survive, make it through to the other side, and then once we're on that other side, things will be moving again.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, that's exactly it. All right, guys. Well, I guess this wraps up another episode. We will be back at it. What day is it today? Thursday. We'll we'll be back at it again on Sunday. Maybe we should consider, we'll talk about it off camera a little bit, but maybe we should consider starting to do some live streams doing these hour-long videos in a live stream format as opposed to pre-recorded.
SPEAKER_01That that could be fun. I think we should do that. A little bit of audience engagement. Yes, yeah, I want to engage the audience. Then you can tell me how wrong I am all the time. Right, right. Well, I guess that guy's gonna be there, so that'll be annoying.
SPEAKER_00All right, guys, till next time. Take care and God bless. Shift out.