Algarve Luxury, Lagos Scarcity, and the Search for What Comes Next

In this episode of Notes From the Field, Ronan McMahon checks in from Val de Lobo after a week on the ground in the Algarve, where he’s seeing the opportunity not just hold—but strengthen.

From the luxury end of the market in the Golden Triangle to rising scarcity in Lagos, overlooked value in Silves, and emerging potential in the eastern Algarve, Ronan shares where the market is moving now—and where he’s already looking for the next big story.

Episode Description

Broadcasting from his condo in Val de Lobo before heading north to Évora and then on to Portugal’s Silver Coast, Ronan uses this dispatch to walk through what he’s seeing across several distinct slices of the Algarve market.

At the high end, the message is clear: luxury is on an absolute tear. In places like Quinta do Lago and Val de Lobo, land values and teardown pricing have surged as affluent buyers continue to move aggressively into Europe’s most established resort communities. Ronan reflects on his own Val de Lobo bank repossession purchase as a reminder that even in a hot market, standout deals can still appear—if you’re on the ground, connected, and ready to act.

He also highlights a new luxury play that has caught his attention: Palmares, a dramatically repositioned golf-and-resort community near Lagos that he now believes could become one of the Algarve’s most compelling high-end opportunities. In his view, it offers the kind of setting, views, and relative value that could allow it to compete directly with the Golden Triangle over time.

At a more accessible price point, Ronan shares an update on a potential member opportunity near the historic town of Silves—an appealing lower-entry play that combines space, greenery, proximity to beaches, and easy access to the broader western Algarve. He also discusses the continued appeal of finding value in overlooked or distressed inventory, including bank foreclosure projects that may look messy today but could transform once cleaned up and stabilized.

In Lagos, the story remains one of relentless demand and tightening supply. Ronan reports that the inventory squeeze is becoming even more severe, with rising values, booming rental demand, and owners increasingly unwilling to sell. At the same time, a major long-abandoned eyesore at the top of town is finally coming down—a development Ronan believes will significantly raise the profile of that part of Lagos and could unlock one more major member-only opportunity.

He closes by widening the lens. In the eastern Algarve, he sees a gentler but still promising trend toward higher-quality tourism and more sophisticated demand. And beyond that, he’s already thinking ahead: if Lagos has been one of the great success stories of the Algarve, where is the next Lagos?

Ronan covers:

• Why the luxury Algarve market is getting even stronger
• How bank repossessions can still create standout opportunities
• What makes Val de Lobo and Quinta do Lago such powerful luxury markets
• Why Palmares may be the Algarve’s next major high-end story
• A lower-entry opportunity taking shape near Silves
• How overlooked foreclosure projects can hide significant upside
• Why demand, rental pressure, and scarcity in Lagos keep intensifying
• How the removal of a long-standing eyesore could reshape one key part of town
• Why Ronan is working on one more potential Lagos opportunity
• What makes Fuseta and the eastern Algarve increasingly appealing
• Why identifying the “next Lagos” is already a top strategic priority

Key Takeaway

The Algarve opportunity is no longer confined to one price point or one town. Luxury is moving fast, Lagos remains exceptionally strong, and the next wave of upside may come from being early in the right submarket—before wider attention arrives.

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:15

Hi, welcome to your notes from the field. Greetings from my condo in Val de Lobo, right in the heart of the central Algarve. I'm recording this before I jump in my car and head north to Evera. So by the time by the time you're listening to this, I'm gonna have boots on the ground in Evere. From there I head on to the Silver Coast and back to my home base, back to my Portugal home on the beach north of Lisbon. So I've had boots on the ground here in the Algarve now for a week. What I've found has been, I guess, a continuing and a strengthening of the opportunity that we've found and the situation that we've profited from greatly. So I'm just going to cut this up into a couple of couple of segments. First of all, what I've what I've observed at the luxury end of the market and how we could profit. Second of all, what's happening in Lagosh in terms of our big opportunity there. Third of all, just an update on our idea of buying overlooked and unloved here. And then finally, just checking in on the situation in the in the eastern Algarve. So, first of all, the luxury end of the market is on an absolute tear here. Where I am here in Val de Lobo with neighbouring Quinta de Lago, I'm right at ground zero of the luxury end of the Algarve market, and indeed the kind of Europe's high-end resort communities. So this area, the Golden Triangle, kind of composed of Quinta de Lago, Val de Lobo, and Villa Mora, that was kind of ground zero for early luxury development in the Algarve 30, 40 years ago. In that period, it's undergone waves of growth, waves of development, many bankruptcies, bankruptcies by master developers, owners of the entire resort, bankruptcies of microdevelopers who have created individual communities within. It's been a very, very rocky multi-decade ride. And so where I'm sitting here in my condo in Val de Lobo, I've shared videos of it with you in the past. I'll share it below again in the notes. I was able to buy here thanks to a bank repossession for 410,000 euro earlier this year. One of the identical neighboring condos lists for 830,000 euro. It hasn't sold. Maybe a true market value is more around 750,000 euro. And it rents for 3,500 euro per week in peak season. So this was an opportunity that landed in my lap because I put myself in the right place at the right time. And this deal came my way because I was on the ground in the Algarve pressing the flesh with contacts, and a banking contact let me know that she had access to this little portfolio of bank foreclosures. One was the standout deal, and I got that. So the the kind of the takeaway here is that for bank repossessions, you know, it's it's very much here in Portugal, it's very much a numbers game. Every now and then you find a nugget in the middle of that, and that nugget is typically a function of just the bank has got their pricing wrong. The number we get quoted could be generated from a spreadsheet, which is just a function of the debt outstanding and may bear little resemblance to the to the true value. So there's a luxury play which, well, there's a play at all ends of the market in Portugal that's that's difficult to execute, it takes a lot of time, energy, luck, trawling of listings, but it can prove really, really profitable. Um, and each of the banks have websites where they post all their post all their foreclosures. Um but right around me here in in Val de Lobo and Quinta de Lago, we have we have homes selling for multi, multi multi-millions of of euros, maybe from about luxury villas from maybe about 2.5 million up to 25 million. Just pre-COVID in Quinta de Lago, you could buy a teardown from you know from as little as about 1.6 million. So if you go back maybe three years ago, a teardown in Quinta de Lago, um that's a a dated home from maybe 30 or 40 years ago, a good lot, but a home that that doesn't serve the kind of the purpose today. Today, those teardowns are going for as much as 5 million euros. So there just has been a surge of demand, uh you know, incredible appreciation in value of land, of big lots in the most luxurious high end of resorts. And here in in Val de Lobo, it's the same. The high end of the market is on an absolute tear. So while while certain segments of the the market in places like Portugal and Brazil are Portugal and Spain are struggling because the the British, the mid-market British have all but disappeared from from the market, the high end is seeing a surge. And so what really got me excited on on my on the road on Tuesday, I visited a golf and resort community called Palmares. It's a community that was that's been in existence for for I think a couple of decades. A couple of years ago, it was bought by a major Spanish group, and they are completely transforming and repositioning and looking to have it, and they're they've delivered on this all already, have it compete with Quinta de Lago and Val de Lobo. So they are going in at the high end of the market and they're saying, Hey, Quinta de Lago, we're going to compete with you. Now, here's the thing: in my opinion, this other community, Palmares, is just so much nicer. You've just got these amazing views that you don't have in Quinta de Lago and Val de Lobo, which are predominantly flat. You have a stunning golf course with significant parts of it, beach and ocean front, other parts that with that have amazing views. You've got views to Lagos in one side and Port de Mao and the estuary on the other. So it's it's a unique and special piece of land. Um you've got this massive beachfront component, you've got ocean views, you have proximity to, you've got proximity to Lagos, you've got easy proximity to the airport, 45 minutes. Now Quinta de Lago is only 15 minutes from from the airport, but you know, so it's it's a bit further from the airport, but you're still well within that sweet spot or the the the big number for airport proximity is that kind of hour to hour 30 range that really facilitates weekend visits and and short-term stays. So in this Palmares community now, you can buy lots from you can buy good, not their primo lots, but good ocean view lots from about 600,000 euro. Um you can buy one bed plus office condos with stunning views. Now just this is all super super high-end, just top, top great. This place struck me as just one of the most aesthetically beautiful and peaceful and tranquil and luxurious settings for a golf and resort community I've I've seen anywhere, you know. So this is no, you know, mid-upper market. This is this is top, you know, this is here. I'm comparing to the the that the highest end of the market in Cabo, I'm comparing to the highest end of the market in Quinta de Lago, I'm comparing to the highest end of the market in Spain's Costa del Sol. And we can buy prices there because I think that the branding and the awareness has haven't fully kicked yet, are less than half of what you'd expect to pay in the the the likes of Quinta. So this it was my it was my first time at this community, um, it was my first time having boots on the ground since it was sold. I was there maybe seven, eight years ago when it was all nice but fine. Now it's firmly transformed, it's a place where I'm going to pursue a Rita members-only luxury deal on lots uh lots and condos in in the near future. So um I poured over their master plan. There's an area that I like, um, I'm connecting with the developer and I want us to be there at the ground floor. I think it's a truly special place. I think values could, I expect values will soar um because it's got a very, very special offering and it's in the right, right sweet spot of of the market. Um, of course, you know that's a high-end play, you know, not not everyone has the the budget or the desire to be to be playing in that playing in that market. Um I also spent time um mid-week, mid-this week in the ancient city of Silves. Now, again, just to orient you, I'm talking about a lot of a lot of places here, but you know, the the Algarve is so compact. All these places are within you know an hour and a quarter's drive of of each other. And this place of Silves, this was the capital of Portugal centuries ago, an amazing historic city with a beautiful medieval castle. Um, I'm working on a Rita members-only deal just on the the edge of town. It's a it's a new community, um, it's got it's two two kilometres, a mile and a half outside of Silves. It's going to be in a beautiful verdant garden setting, um, comfortable, spacious home, uh, town homes and and and condos with a get-in price, you know, that's that's unheard of for units of this size. So, I mean, I'm talking about a range of prices in the region of €250,000 to low mid €30,000 euros for very spacious two-bed condos with plenty of outside space and and townhomes. So, here you'll get a lot of space. You'll be in a beautiful country, country setting, minutes from the ancient town of Silves, and then you've got the beaches are just about 9 to 12 minutes away. Um, the town of Port Mao is 12-13 minutes away, Lagos is 25 minutes away. You've got all this on your doorstep in a beautiful verdant country setting, low price points, proximity to to Silves. So that that opportunity, um I it's getting very, very close. Um I can't, well I I don't have a definitive day date yet when it'll be when it'll be ready to to launch, but I've been working with the developer on our Rita members only pricing. Um things thing things are things are things are are close. Um but interesting, when I was in Silves, I also stumbled upon a this really, really surreal and just kind of weird um bank foreclosure project. And I'll I'll share some video of of it of it in the in the in in the notes below. And this bank foreclosure project, it was clearly built to some kind of grand quirky, quirky theme, and it clearly didn't work. And you know, I don't know how I feel about the design, other than it's weird and maybe not to everyone's taste, but get beyond that, and what you have is I viewed this like really highly spec'd condo, which is about a thousand square feet of two-bed, two-bath condo with another same again, full space, thousand square feet of of roof terrace. You're right on the edge of the old town, so you're literally like 200 steps will bring you into the old town, but you're in an area that's outside the old town, so you've parking outside your door, you've got you know, you've got these types of things that you don't get when when you're in the old town. So I thought that was was was interesting. Um I um yeah, I guess a couple of it it got it got my attention. It's still I'm still kind of digesting whether I think it's a good deal, because on the one hand, the price per square foot is incredibly low. Um once they tidy up the community and put commercial units on the ground floor and then build on some of the empty land, and you can see all these details in the video. Then it you know, I've seen this happen so often, these bank foreclosure projects that are a mess, but once they're tidied up, they they take on a whole different new new perspective. Um so a goodbye, I don't know. I'm I'm thinking about it, and I think I'll go back out there and and and and and have another look. But over in Lagosh, 25 minutes away in Lagos, you know, everything that I've been telling you about, it continues to happen, it accelerates the the the the surge in demand for for rentals, the surge in demand for resales, values rise time, each each time I'm there. Just in the the in the day I was there, I heard of a I heard of a a Rita member getting a kind of a soft offer. It wasn't an offer in writing, but a uh a possibility of selling their selling their their their Edega condo for over $160,000 more than Rita members paid. The the demand for the best in class lagos is stronger than ever. It's soaring, and the scarcity of inventory is becoming even more acute because the more values rise, the less inclined owners are to resell. The stronger the rental demand, the less inclined owners are to are to resell. So there's a real inventory bind at the moment in Lagosh, and we're very lucky that thanks to our group buying power, we've been able to go in, get access in the standout projects. You know, the the biggest players in Lagosh real estate are two strands of the same family. Um so the it's a family that came there, they bought so much of the prime land and to use as a farm. Um you know, decades ago they moved from the north of Portugal, and then they moved into the the resort and and real estate business, then the family divided into two strands as these things happen. Now we're very lucky that we have access to the best projects from both those both those strands. So that gives us that gives us that gives us access to the best inventory in in all in all of Lagosh. So that the future is very bright. I'm more bullish than ever about our member-only opportunities that we've that we've that we've got in on in Lagosh. And you know, specifically, you know, that's that's a day. I visited it, it's looking phenomenal. Um one of your fellow members has moved in already. The the units, other than this one Rita member, the units haven't been delivered yet. The units are finished, but the parking area and some of the communal areas haven't been finished. That will be delivered in the in the in the coming weeks and months. Um Donna Maria across the across the street is just flying up. Um I'm really seeing how it's going to take shape, and I'm really seeing just what a landmark location and what a landmark project it's um it's it's becoming. And then we've got the the Santa Maria's, and those are just looking the the delivered buildings are just top top class. Every attention to detail, every time I go in and visit with the with the developer, the attention to detail he has, you know, how he how he tells me we're gonna visit an apartment, and you know, how we can just use our apps to have the temperature pre-programmed in every room, so by the time we get up to our apartment, it's gonna be just the right temperature that we can move up and down the blinds, just you know, all these gizmos and gimmicks, but it speaks to his attention to detail, and you can just see it not just in the tech gizmo and wizardry, but just also in just the quality of everything. Quality of the the finishes, and our most recent Santa Maria building is just flying up. I'm really impressed with the rate of progress. Now, the big development from my day in Lagos was for those of you who've been to Lagos, you'll be familiar and know that there is just this eyesore at the top of the town 38 years ago. A construction project, I don't know whether it was hotels, condos, probably a mix of both, was abandoned half-built. And this sat there as an awful eyesore since 30 38 years. And just when I was there this week, they started in earnest tearing it down. Now, this is going to be a game changer for Lagos. It's going to be a game changer because, in there, in that site, there's going to be a new luxury hotel and resort community and condos, and this is going to really, really up Lagosh's game, bring it to bring it to a new level. It's going to be a driver for attracting more and more people, more and more vacationers. And the second big thing is that since I've becoming coming to Lagosh, I have been trying to convince the owner of the adjoining land. So if you know this shell of a project, the ISOR, you will know that there is just the most amazing piece of land next door to it. One of those two strands I mentioned to you. He has been sitting on this land waiting for the ISO to be removed before considering developing it. Now the ISO is coming down. Now we're talking Turkey with him. It's going to be an amazing project. It's going to bring benefits to the opportunities that we've already got in on in Lagosh, given our other opportunities, proximity to this, given how it's going to raise that whole area of town. And secondly, we're working on a new Rita members-only opportunity there. Now I think it's going to be tough. So that means that our group buying power, you know, on the first pre-release could be very, very attractive to the developer. So the the way I'm going to play this is that he has this moment to capitalize on. If there's some catastrophe in the world. And those are big numbers, doubling your money. And of course, it's it's it doubling the investment. Of course, it's much, much more than doubling your money because you know you're going to be borrowing 80% of each of these numbers. So it's a very powerful play. It's one that you need to be on the ground for. You need to have boots on the ground. You need to be willing and able to drive up side streets, to knock on doors, but it's doable. Now it's getting more and more difficult to pull off as the market gets stronger, but it's still it's still possible. And that is a a very exciting play. One that I think, you know, for the right person who has the who has the time and who's got the interest, that is a way that could be a seriously profitable play. Meantime, over in the eastern Algarve, um demand is is growing. There's a a new hotel um near near Cabanas that I that I intended on staying on, then that I intended on spending a couple of nights in. That too got got got booked out. Um these these are two new kind of boutique hotels, you know, targeting a pretty new market for the Eastern Algarve. It's a let's call it maybe a trendier, trendier market, you know, nature and beach. And you know, in the past parts of the Eastern Algarve had been had been price point driven. People were attracted there by lower price points. And what we're seeing is new hotels, new tourism experiences all popping up to cater to a higher a higher spending market. So again, now this market is very different to the market of Val de Lobo and Quinta de Lago, which are very much resort-driven. This is more proximity to nature, boating, wild beaches, the Rio Formosa, the nature preserve, and this is an area that is going to continue to grow, albeit likely for now, anyway, at a lee less explosive rate than than than than than Lagos, for example. But I'm charmed by by by this area. You know, we we had an opportunity to buy in Fusetta a couple of months ago. These are condos right on the right on the water, and this little beach town of Fusetta is just charming me more and more every time I I go back. It is traditional, you just have that smell of fish cooking on coals, wafting, wafting through town, old cobblestone streets, you know, nothing like the sanitized luxury and mansions behind walls that that I spoke about in Quinta de Lago and and Val de Lobo. And these, what's really, really special about Fusetta is that it's as far as I know, it's the only place in the Eastern Algarve where you've got beach that isn't offshore. So in most of the Eastern Algarve places like Cabanas, you jump on, you jump on your little water taxi from town that brings you across to the across to the beach. So the beaches are backed by lagoons. In Fusetta, you have this beautiful curve of white sand, sheltered beach, and it's just beautiful flat turquoise water. You have that. You want to jump in a boat, in like 90 seconds, you can be on one of those endless wild Atlantic sand dune back back beaches. So it's a really, really special thing to have both those things in in one place. Um okay, in closing, big agenda item for me in the coming months is to identify the next lagosh. So, you know, we we have we have current opportunities in in Lagosh, which are proving stellar. Um I thought that was going to be the end of Lagosh for us. Looks now like we're going to have this new play, thanks to the the removal of the ISO triggering it. But I always, on your behalf, need to have an eye out as to where the next place is is is going to be because you know prime land and lagosh, you know, it's just so so finite. So I spent some time in a little town called Burgau two days ago. Um this is a town that's quaint, charming, kind of fisherman's village vibe with fishermen's houses. You know, it's it's compact. I think when I first went there maybe five or six years ago, there was only maybe three restaurants, maybe there's 15 or 20 now, but it's still it's still somewhat somewhat rustic, it's got a beautiful curve of of of beach. It's a place, you know, I I spent a good chunk of a day out there this week, but it's a place where you know I feel I need to go and spend a weekend there. Um so I'm telling you this for two reasons. First of all, just to bring you behind the curtain of where I'm at in terms of our deal and opportunity pipeline, you know, not just two and three months down the track, but two two and three years. And also to put out there that this is a big agenda item for our Portugal play, where is going to be the the next Lagos? Where is the next place that is going to see this stellar growth? And this place, Bergau, as are other of these little towns that are kind of 15 and and 20 minutes west of Lagos, it's it's pretty, it's further from the airport, but it's still relatively accessible, it's still within an hour and a half. Um, it's beautiful, but is it the is it the next lagosh? Um, and that is something that I'm going to be spending a lot of time thinking about and a lot of just pure boots on the ground spending time in these places, getting the vibe, you know. Are we seeing the the the lead indicators? You know, are we seeing you know fancy, are we seeing artists moving there? Are there new new restaurants that are dynamic? Is it attracting those kind of trendsetters that will kind of trigger trigger this transformation? And then, you know, is the next lagosh even going to be a beach town? And by by by the question, the next lagosh, you know, I'm not talking about necessarily it being a beach town. I'm talking about a place that's set to see stellar growth and really, really strong gains and appreciation. Could it be that the next that the next lagosh isn't a beach town at all, that it's a town in the interior like Evera? So on that note, I'm gonna leave you. I'm packing up my bags, packing up the car, and getting on the road to Evere and from there on to the the Silver Coast. So stay tuned, and I'll keep you posted as I go.