Stop Overthinking It And Draft The Guy

The play-in is here, the tanking is finally over, and the draft board debates are about to get unbearable. So we do something simpler: we tell you the five 2026 NBA Draft prospects we trust, even if the public is all over the place on them, and we explain exactly why. 

We start with a quick run through the NBA play-in matchups and the weird dynamics that show up every year, from teams landing in the same spot again to rumors about managing minutes. Then we pivot into our “my guys” framework: prospects we believe can survive role changes, fit next to stars, and still earn that second and third contract. Along the way, we break down the analytics we lean on in scouting like true shooting percentage, usage rate, assist rate, free throw percentage as a shooting translation signal, and defensive “stocks” as a clue for activity and timing. 

From Caleb Wilson’s scalable two-way forward profile, to Braden Burries’ shotmaking and defensive impact, to Morez Johnson’s high-motor big archetype, to Keaton Waggler’s rare blend of elite shooting plus real playmaking, to Hans Steinbach’s “do not overthink it” production case, every segment is built around what actually carries into the NBA. If you love NBA draft scouting reports, big board arguments, and actionable ways to evaluate prospects, this one is for you. 

Subscribe so you don’t miss next week, share the show with a friend who lives for draft season, and leave a review with the one prospect you’re all-in on right now.

Transcript

Welcome And What We Cover

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Welcome back to the draft of the Stanish Republican. It's April 14, 2026. On today's show, we're talking my favorite players in this draft, and we're talking some plaything NBA games. But first, gonna hit that intro.

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One of the most exciting drafts I can remember. And in the years I've been doing this, I think this draft is the best.

SPEAKER_00 0:40

What is up, everybody? Um, back with a new episode. Very excited today. Um, we're talking the NBA play-in for a little bit, and then we're gonna get into my favorite players in this draft, like my just my my guys, you know, like the uh these five players that I don't care where you draft them, I think that they're gonna be successful in the NBA. Let's start with the short stuff and then we'll get into the really fun stuff.

NBA Play-In Preview And Picks

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So the NBA play-in. Um, we had uh thankfully the the season ended on Sunday, and all the teams that are tanking are uh we we can just finally have to stop worrying about them. Uh, most of our lottery order um in terms of percentages has been set. We have a couple of coin flips that have to happen between, I think, the Pelicans and the Mavericks, and then we have a couple of other teams that will figure out who uh make up the back end of the lottery. Um, tonight our first games are gonna be uh a team that's been there a lot, and that is the Miami Heat. You know, you wonder why they didn't make a trade, uh, because they ended up right back, you know, kind of where they started last year. Um, but the play in a new face um kind of become, I don't say like like the league darlings this year, but they were definitely a lot of fun to watch, and that is the Charlotte Hornets. Uh, it's crazy because earlier in the year there was this Trey Young John Morant LaMelo ball talk. Uh Trey ends up getting moved. Uh Ja just ends up being sad indefinitely, and LaMelo he just began to like kind of turn it around um and kind of you know got back to form. He's still you know a little crazy and it's a terrible driver, but he uh he at least was driving well on the court. Uh, you know, Konka Nipple um probably won't win rookie of the year, but he man, he was such a perfect fit for them. Uh just this knockdown you know killer shooter, one of the best rookie shooters we've ever seen. Uh, you know, coupled with you know uh Brandon Miller, who's finally had like a healthy season, and uh they've just been a lot of fun. Man, I hope that they win this game and then they're able to sneak into the eight seed there. Uh the next game, um, similar in fashion, you have the Suns, who I don't know, people thought they might be a little bit higher, but you know, it's very weird year for them. So they end up in the seventh spot. They're playing against the Trailblazers. And this is the first time that Portland has had a chance at the postseason in a very long time. So a lot of that stuff's finally starting to pay off. It took it was a long rebuild for them. And uh at least being the eighth seed, they will have two shots at it. Um, I kind of think Phoenix will just, I don't say roll over them. I mean, if then the affia is on it, you know, if Clinken can stay out of foul trouble, you know, it just their their guards are so up and down, um, and their defense is really inconsistent. I thought they would be like a top six defense, and they've just been really up and down all year. So, I mean, if Portland locks in, I guess, and the Suns just kind of shoot the if if Dylan Brooks does Dylan Brooks things, which means that he tries to take over the game himself, uh, I think Portland has a chance. But if Devin Booker is is on it, man, I just I don't see how they lose this game at home. Uh, then tomorrow we have the Magic and the Sixers and the Warriors and the Clippers. I think it's funny that people were, you know, talking about all the other teams tanking, and there's already rumors that the Warriors are trying to just lose this game. Uh, they're saying that Steph Curry is going to be very limited in this game. Uh and the Clippers, uh, you know, after that awful start, you know, they I think we thought they they might get to that seven or eight or six, but they just kind of for the last couple months hanging around that, you know, nine or ten spot. So I feel LA would beat them even if Curry played. Uh, they're just on paper have been better. Quite Leonard's been awesome all year. Uh, then you get the Magic and Sixers. And I don't know what's gonna happen in here. Uh Joel Embiid, you know, is usually injured, but now he has an ependectomy uh a week or so ago. I assume he he won't play. And uh, you know, the magic sat Desmond Bang against Boston for some reason, uh, but Franz Wagner's back. So I don't know, man. Uh the Magic are supposed to have been a top four seed according to every national person um that just assumed that they knew what they're talking about. Uh and instead they are um the eight uh I'm sorry, here uh they are the uh eight seed now um going up against the Sixers and the seven. The Sixers have had a really weird year. Uh you know, Tarius Maxie kind of, I'm gonna say he took a step back, but he didn't have the the explosive, insane year that he did last year. Uh Vijay Edgecombe has kind of come back to earth a little bit after like a really hot start. Um, and then Paul George, you know, has been okay, and they've had a couple of other guys here and there. So I I would like to think that the Sixers win just because, you know, I'm I'm a greedy fan from Memphis and I like I really want that pick from the you know magic. Uh I just I kind of feel that the magic on the road here and you know win this game. Um, but you know, let's get into the

Defining My Guys And Longevity

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fun stuff. Um, let's get into my guys. Um when I was trying to decide this, I was originally going to just say, okay, like I'm not gonna talk about any of the top four guys. I'm not gonna talk about, you know, Cameron Boozer, Caleb Wilson, uh Darren Peterson, or AJ DeBanza. All those guys are gonna be solid, you know. But I mean, the more I looked at it, I was like, I really want to talk about Caleb Wilson. I just like I haven't had a chance to really just like you know ooze over him. And uh he's one of my favorite players in this draft. Um, but just just to kind of like frame all this, my guys is basically these are the players that I don't care where they get drafted. I feel like these guys have a chance to have, you know, three contract careers. And what that means is um, you know, your first contract is your basic rookie, you know, contract deal, and then getting to that second contract, which is what uh a lot of people try to do because that's that's more of your best chance at like high money. Then your third contract um is kind of like you know, after you're a little bit past your peak, um going into your like maybe you're uh you know, around like late, late 20s, early 30s. And that so for me, like it's a player that will last 10 years or more. And um, I think at the end of the day, if you're drafting like that, that's your goal is to find players that will be uh just longstanding, you know, players that that will have value um for a long period and not for just like around like you know, three to five years. With that said, um, let's start with Caleb Wilson here.

Caleb Wilson Two-Way Forward Case

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Um his profile is he's a Ford, he played out of UNC, 19 years old. Um his height, I'm waiting for for that you know draft combine stuff, but he should be between 6'9 and 6'10. The last time he was weighed was around you know 215. Um, I'm wondering to see where that is because after those injuries, I wonder if he's you know maybe put on some weight there. Um his stats don't look crazy, but um, we will get into that a little bit. Um he averaged a little over 14 a game, a little over six rebounds to assist. He shot 36% from three, and uh his free throw marker was at 78%. Uh some of his strengths here, he has really strong shooting indicators. Um his 78% from free throw is top 25% amongst uh forwards, which is a really good predictive shooting mark. Uh 36 uh percent from three on on like an okay amount of attempts. It's not like a high volume, but it's uh it's strong enough that we can read into it. Um, he has above average playmaking for his size. Um, he has a uh a 15% assist rate, uh, which is top 20% among Fords. I had okay, sorry, I had to pause here. Um, I had a couple people text me saying that like maybe I talk a little too fast or I'm talking over specific stats a little too fast um that people might not understand. Um, so when we get into you know rates, uh, you know, but when you hear a person say like you know 20% rate, you know, for rebounding, you know, like uh like their you know assist rate is at like 32%. Kind of what that means is that is the percentage of which that player ends that play. So in terms of usage, if that person um, you know, is the last person to turn it over, to um, you know, uh get fouled, hit a shot, like you know, that's where so basically that's the amount of uh possession percentages. So if your if your team has like, you know, let's say like you know 68, you know, like in college games, uh, if they do like a 68, you know, uh pace on like possession, then like 30% of that, you know, is ended with you know with this one player. So like a um your like high usage guys, you're hoping that their offensive stuff is also really good because if it's high usage, low offense, then they're just like really like you volatile, like a high, high, like you know, um usage guy, but they have no real depth. Um, and your guys that are like low usage but high on offense um are really good indicators for people that would be really good role players coming in because they're like it's a person that doesn't need a lot of touches, but they're really effective with those touches. Um, so yeah, I'm sorry, yeah. I kind of just want to like you know help a little bit in terms of maybe you know, people don't really look into this stuff too much. Um, and it can sound kind of confusing. Um, so uh I'm sorry, uh so he he has a versatile offensive profile. Uh he's he's able to score at all three levels, um, and he's really effective at attacking um heavy closeouts. Uh his defensive activity at over two and a half stocks per game is uh above his average um for people at his position. And he looks pretty scalable in terms of his ability to produce without high usage and his fits on and off the ball. He does have some weaknesses here. Um he doesn't really have any defining skill yet. He's not a top tier in shooting, creation, or uh he's not really like a lockdown guy on defense. Um he can handle on pressure, but uh when he matches up against guys that have um, you know, a pretty sizable physical uh, you know, advantage over him, um, he can kind of get pushed around a little bit. Um so it's like you know, he's gonna have to add some strength. I think if he adds maybe like 10 to 15 pounds, if he can get to around 230, I think that allows him to keep all of his speed and skill and will allow him to take all the bumps and bruises in the paint. Uh just talking basically about his offense here. Caleb Wilson's offensive value is gonna come from versatility rather than dominance in any single area. His combination of 36% uh three-point shooting and 78% free throw shooting is a strong indicator of long-term shooting viability, especially for a Ford. Players in this free throw percentage range historically translate as shooters at a high rate. He also provides secondary playmaking value with an assist rate around 15%, which is well above average for his position. That allows him to function as a connector in modern offenses, keeping the ball moving while still providing scoring pressure. While he is not a primary creator, his ability to attack closeouts and operate in space gives him strong scalability next to higher usage players. Getting into defense, this has been like a kind of polarizing, but this has been a debate back and forth. That there's been some louder voices on DMB Twitter that don't think he's very good. And other people are claiming that he is good. I'm kind of in the middle here. Uh defensively, Wilson projects as a multi-positional piece rather than a true stopper. His stocks reduction of 2.5 per game reflects active hands and good timing, and his mobility allows him to switch across multiple positions. He is not yet a high impact rim protector or a lockdown defender, but his versatility provides a strong baseline for some good defensive value. Uh, my you know, current projection for him, I think uh his ceiling is gonna be, you know, like a strong all-star forward. I think he ends up as a high-end starter, though, uh, with real two-way connective ability. Um, you know, I have him ranked as my number two currently on my big board. Uh, I feel like he's just gonna be, you know, killer. So let's look at a couple of of his games that um I think if you have time to go back and watch. Uh, these are the three games that he was just really showed off why he's in that top three, top four range. Uh his game versus Kansas, he had 24 four assists, four steals. He shot 79% from uh true shooting. Uh Wilson's best all-round game came against Kansas, where he put up uh 24 points on 79% true shooting while adding four assists and four steals. He finished with a 26.3 box plus minus, which is crazy. Uh, this is the perfect model game for him. Efficient scoring, playmaking, and defensive activity all hitting at once. This is what separates him from other fours. He doesn't just score efficiently, he impacts every part of the game at a high level. His next best game um is was versus Duke. He had uh against Duke, Wilson delivered 23 points on 77% true shooting paired with a 158 offensive rating, which that is bonkers. Okay, so your your average uh so offensive rating is graded on 100 possessions, right? So if you hear like a person say, like, oh, like you know, that person's offensive rating is 110, that uh basically they are creating um an extra amount of points based on 110 points uh per how many uh possessions is going on, right? So on 100 possessions, he's at 158, which is 58 uh points above what the average is. Um, just incredible how good he was in this game. Uh, this is a massive translation signal, efficiency holding against top competition. And and like if that game was, I think was really the one that kind of put him on the mat for everybody that really wasn't paying attention to him. Um him going at Cameron Boozer and busting his ass, uh, which is one of the reasons why I love Caleb, is he he went up against every other top player and he just went right at them. Like, you know, he didn't hide away. Like, you know, he just you know, I love that dog in him, um, which is why I think uh he's gonna be like really good. Um my my model specifically values this heavily because it shows that scoring doesn't drop off against better athletes and defensive schemes. And then the third game that I think uh you should go back and watch it was versus Stanford. Uh Wilson's highest scoring performance came against Stanford, where he dropped 26 points on 67% true shooting with a 31.9% usage rate. This is uh a key game for his offensive ceiling, but wasn't just efficient, he was carrying a real scoring low when a player can maintain efficiency at that usage level. That's also a really good strong indicator um to be able to scale at the next level. But his worst game uh was against Kentucky. Uh Wilson's toughest efficiency night came against Kentucky, where he scored 15 points but shot just 33% as he shot five of 17 from the field. This is the clearest version of his current um issues, which is uh when his shot isn't fallen, he doesn't yet have a dominant uh go-to scoring move to kind of like help himself restabilize. Um, however, even in this game, um he was still able to contribute with six assists and some good rebounding, reinforcing that his floor is built on versatility and not just scoring. Uh when Wilson is at his best, he's given you efficient scoring, playmaking, and defensive events all in one game. And when his shot is sorry, and even when his shot isn't falling, uh, he's still impacting the game in other ways. This is why his floor is so high. Uh yeah, I I love Caleb Wilson. I'm from Memphis, uh, so I love that you know, blue-collar, you know, mentality of just you know going down there and and fighting nonstop and not being you know done until you know the game's over. Uh the fact that he broke both of his hands because he was trained so hard is just uh that that's main character, you know, in like a movie or something. That's just that's

Braden Burries Shotmaking And Defense

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insane. Uh let's move on to uh one of my favorite guards, and that is Braden Burries. Uh Brayden Burries is a you know a guard or a wing. He played out of Arizona. He's he's right around 20, uh, six foot four, 205 pounds. Again, I'm gonna update a lot of these uh height and weight markers uh once the combat comes out. Oh, well, sorry, once the combine comes out, uh around May 10th. Uh on this season, he averaged a little over 16 points per game, right under five rebounds, a little over two assists. He shot 39 from three, 80 from free throw. His true shooting was 61.6. Oh, yeah, I also wanted to mention, um, just because it's just kind of absurd, Caleb Wilson had 67 dunks in like 24 games this year. Um, I think he still ended the year like third or fourth overall in dunks, and he didn't play like the last 12 or 13. He would have broken uh, you know, the all-time record if he hadn't been uh, you know, if both of his hands didn't get broken. So just absurd how when he goes to finish, he just he looks to tear down the rim every time. Um, getting back to Burry, sorry. Uh, some of his key model indicators, uh, I just mentioned about his true shooting at 61.6. Uh, you then get into uh, you know, he's basically that that puts him in that top 15 uh efficiency tier. His uh shooting from three, a little over 39, which is uh really good shot making. His free throw percentage at 80 is a strong shooting translation signal. His assist at turnover puts him in that top 15 to 20 deficient uh decision making, still rated 2.8, uh puts him in that top 20%. Um, and then his his defensive box plus minus is actually one of the best. Um, he has an elite defensive impact metric. Uh, just going into his strengths here a little bit uh more. Um Burry's uh is really elite for a freshman guard. When you look at his his stats at 16, you know, on that on that high volume of like true shooting, and his shooting from three and from the line is a major green flag combination um in my model that heavily favors this as a predictor for NBA shooting translation. What separates him is that his efficiency holds with shot difficulty. He's not just a catch and shoot player, he's generating offense off the dribble in transition and late in the clock. Beyond scoring Burries is uh more complete than he gets credit for. His 2.4 assists with a 1.7 assistant turnover ratio shows solid decision making, and defensively, he grades out extremely well as his defensive box minus is in the 98th percentile and his still rate is nearly 3%, uh, which both point to a real defensive instincts and activity. He does have some weaknesses, obviously. Uh the biggest concern with Burries is his consistency, is his consistency, sorry, tied to shot making. While his efficiency is strong overall, there are stretches where if his jumper isn't falling, his impact uh begins to dip. Uh his handle in his handle is functional, but it's not elite yet, which can limit his ability to consistently separate against top defenders. Physically, he is solid, but he's not overwhelming. Um, he doesn't have elite uh length or size for a wing, which can cap his defensive ceiling against bigger matchups. Uh for his offensive breakdown, uh, you know, we kind of got into his his you know true shooting here. Um he has a like his usage wasn't that high. It was only 21.6. Uh is one of the more important you know, overall points here. It shows that he can maintain efficiency without needing uh without needing a a high usage role, uh, which is a major signal for his translation. Um, and then you get into his his overall you know scoring profile, which is very complete. Uh, there's no real holes in terms of how he's able to generate offenses. Um he's not a pure primary uh creator yet, but his ability to score at altered levels makes him you know uh very extremely uh scalable in a MBU system. And even from you know mid-range, so like you know, he shot uh you know 39% from three on on like on real volume, he shot uh 64% at the rim, and even from mid-range, he shot you know 45%, which is you know very good. You know, I mean a lot of people hang around that like mid-30s, you know, like high 30s range. But but the guys that that really get to their spots at mid-range hit, you know, in that mid or like high 40s, and some guys hit like in the 50s, but like uh Bruce Dorton, but you know, uh being at you know 45, I think is is a really you know strong marker also uh for him in the mid-range. Uh his defensive breakdown, he does indicate um for strong anticipation and activity. He consistently generates turnovers and disrupts passing lanes. He's not an elite athlete uh you know laterally, but his instincts and effort give him a strong defensive floor. In my model, this is a huge plus because guards who can uh who can score both effectively and produce defensive events tend to outperform expectations. Um, so like some games to go back and watch for him to kind of just get a feel for just how awesome he is. Uh, he also just like uh um you know, he crushed uh Purdue, um, just like another guy that we're bringing about next in um Keaton Waggler. Uh at Purdue, uh Bury's best game of the year, um, where he dropped 46 points on a ridiculous 99% true shooting. He went nine of 11 from three, 11 from 13 from the line with a 182 offensive rating. This is the uh the ultimate translation game, elite shot making at extreme usage, at uh his usage, which is almost at 36%, without losing any efficiency. Uh, my model loves this because it proves that he can scale offense under pressure, not just operating in a system. But uh this is um this is more of a this skill is real type of of performance. I mean, that is like he was so good in that game. If you if you have you know time, you know, at least you could go back and watch the highlights. Like he he could not be stopped. It was so much fun. Uh, then you look at um his game versus Colorado. Uh against Colorado, Burry's put up 31 points on 71% true shooting while adding five steals, showing both scoring dominance and defensive impact. This is one of his most important archetype games because it shows multi-dimensional production, not just scoring, but generating turnovers and impacting the game defensively. That combination is what separates high-level prospects from just pure scores. Um, I this game kind of it showed his ability to be like this you know two-way takeover guy. And then the third game that I think you should go back and check out, um, Burry's delivered a complete stat line against Kansas State with 28 points, four assists, and four steals on 76% true shooting, uh, pair with a 163 offensive rating. This is one of the strongest model games in his profile because it hits everything. It hits his efficient scoring, his activity on defense, and his playmaking. This is the version of Burry's that projects to a higher ceiling than just a basic scoring guard. But just to have you know full context, his worst game of the year came against Iowa State, uh, where he only had three points on zero four shooting, finishing with a seven. 17% true shooting and a minus 24 box plus minus. This is the clear example of his main weakness, which is basically when his shot isn't falling, his impact drops off significantly. He also turned the ball over three times in limited minutes, showing that his offensive game can get disrupted by strong defensive pressure. Iowa State was one of the best um teams on the year in terms of just, you know, um defensive disruption. Um so you know, it's not shocking that he had a bad game against them. I mean, a lot of players did, but uh, you know, yeah, I love this this overall balance here, right? So um when Burry's is at his best, uh, he's giving you 46 on basically perfect efficiency. When he's not hitting shots, there's some drop-off, but that's because he's he's also taking really tough shots. And that's the trade-off with real shot creators. Um, I was kind of looking at some maybe some I don't like doing you know player, you know, comps because I think that once you hear them, it's kind of hard to like not see them. But I could see him being almost like almost like a Devin Booker type, maybe a Malcolm Brogdon, a you know, uh McCollum, maybe, you know. I just I I can see him being in that in the archetype of that middle size, you know, shooting guard that's really able to get to their spots and score at these like really like you know high, you know, burst levels, but also not being um able to be taken advantage of as a defender. Uh let's move on to a guy that I didn't okay, I didn't know if I was gonna talk about him or not because uh I kind of talked about him on the very first episode. And but then at the end of the day, I was like, man, I just love

Morez Johnson High-Motor Big Value

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this guy. Like, you know, there's I just I had to talk about him, and that is Morez Johnson out of Michigan. Now, early reports are he has not fully declared yet. Um, he's waiting to see if he can get a first-round promise, which I think you know, he would definitely get at least a like a top 20 promise, probably. Uh, but you know, I so I I fully expect him to eventually, you know, actually, you know, say that he's going to the NBA, but we'll see. Uh, but just currently for fun, let's just talk about him. Um, he is a Ford or like a forward slash big out of Michigan. He's right at 20 uh years old. Uh, he's 6'9, 250. On this season, he averaged a little over 13 a game, a little over seven rebounds, a little over one assist. Uh, his field goal percentage landed in that like 64, 63, 65 range. Um, he hit 34% from three, but it was on you know, low volume. I think just like maybe like one and a half per game or something. Uh, and then his free throw was at 78%. Some of his really cool uh key model indicators for me was um his his you know overall field goal percentage was really elite level um that landed him in the top 10%. His free throw percentage actually is his strongest um indicator for his his overall profile going forward, um, like for phrase shot at uh 78% is very good. Uh his rebounds a little over seven is really good strong volume and consistency, and then his stocks are a little over 1.8, which shows that he should have some good overall like uh hand eye coordination like type of like activity in terms of like you know hitting passes and blocks and stuff and everything. Um he's a very like high efficiency, high motor big profile, which is what my model really favors as a safe NBA archetype. Uh, just talking about his strengths here, uh he averaged over 13 points a game on 62% shooting, which immediately puts him in elite efficiency tier. This isn't just finishing, this is consistent interior dominance. Uh, my model heavily rewards this because uh his high efficiency bigs tend to translate as role players very early. Uh, what separates him from typical rim runners in the free throw is his free throw percentage at 70%. This is a huge signal. Uh, most non-shooting bigs sit in that 60 to 70 percent range. Johnson being near 80 suggests real touch and potential offensive growth. On the glass, his 7.3 rebounds per game, combined with his strong offensive rebounding rates, show consistent possession impact. He's not just collecting stats, he's creating extra opportunities. Defensively, his activity shows up in both blocks and steals, and more importantly, in versatility. He can switch hedge, uh excuse me. Uh he can switch hedge and recover, something most traditional bigs cannot do at his size. Some of his weaknesses, uh, his main limitation is Johnson profile is his offensive ceiling. He's not a shot creator, and the offense does not run through him. While he has flash, some shooting, but it's very low volume. Uh, it is not reliable enough to really add as like a as a basic like you know, cornerstone for him. Uh his assist numbers at 1.2 reflect limited playmaking, and when taken out of structured offense, he doesn't have the tools to generate his own looks. From a model standpoint, uh this caps is ceiling tier, even if his full remains strong. Uh just kind of doing like a basic offensive breakdown for him. Um, you know, he he places, you know, efficiency, uh efficiency uh he places as one of the most efficient bigs in the class. Uh most of his score um, though, comes from rim finishes, putbacks, dump offs, and interior positioning. Uh, my my model loves this because it translates uh very quickly for most NBA systems. Most guys that can do those things and have great hands can really find uh, you know, like time early on. Um, that which it but his real swing skill is going to be his free throw percentage at 70%. That number is very important because it suggests his touch is real. And even uh, and if he ever expands his range, there's a pathway for him to becoming more than just a rim runner. He's not a shot creator, but he is an elite play finisher, which is valuable archetype. His defensive breakdown. Um so uh he's one of the more impactful bigs in the class when you factor in versatility, his stocks production uh doesn't fully capture his impact, his active, physical, and capable of switching onto multiple positions without breaking the defense. Um, so he he really gets a boost because he can rebound, protect the rim, and he survives on switches, and then he tends to outperform those things as well. Uh, which normally uh players who who project like this almost always outperform where they are picked at. Um, so a couple of games to watch for him where he was just really awesome in. Uh Johnson's best scoring performance came against USC, where he put up 29 points on nine out of 10 shooting with eight of 10 from the line, finishing with an 87% true shooting and a 171 offensive rating. This is the peak version of his offensive profile, elite interior finishing, drawing contact, and converting efficiency. What makes this important for my model is that it wasn't low usage. This is on 22% um usage, meaning uh the hand uh sorry, meaning he handled real offensive involvement while maintaining elite efficiency. This is exactly what a high-level MB uh roll big looks at at ceiling. His next biggest game, uh, which you know you can take this with a grain of salt, uh, against McNeese State, uh Johnson delivered 24 and 11, including six offensive rebounds on 74% true shooting. This is one of his more his most important archetype gains because it combines efficient scoring with possession dominance, the offensive rebounding with a 40% offensive rebound rate, which is crazy, uh, is the key here. Uh, this is where um in my model he spikes for his value. He's just not finishing plays, he's creating extra ones. Then his third best game uh came against Ruckers. Uh Johnson's performance against Ruckers was one of his most complete, finishing with 22 points on 92% true shooting while adding four steals. This game highlights something that people overlook at his profile, which is defensive activity. A big producing, uh, a big hook who can produce steals at that rate while scoring efficiently is a major signal. This is a perfect example of a player impacting both uh both ends without needing touches drawn up for him. His worst game uh came against Alabama. Uh Johnson's toughest outing came against Alabama, where he scored seven points on three of nine shooting with just 29% true shooting. This is the exact limitation his profile. When he can't establish position or or get clean looks at the rim, his efficiency drops uh quickly because he doesn't have self-creation counters. However, even here, he still contributed defensively with two blocks and on the glass, reinforcing the key idea is that uh his floor isn't scoring, it is activity and physical impact. Uh, when Merez Johnson is at his best, he's giving you 29 uh on almost 90% true shooting. And when he's not scoring, he's still grabbing rebounds, getting steals, and impacting the game. That is a role that will translate. One of my favorite things about Merez, um, just as you watch, uh, so when they begin to come down on their side on offense, watch him. And he he immediately goes into the post and he begins to do his work early. And so what I mean by that is he takes his man, he lowers his stance, and he begins to just steamroll him out of the paint. And he's doing this uh for a few different reasons. One, it it sets him up um for better overall space to get boards, right? Secondly, it also clears up more space um for for uh for like you know all of his teammates to kind of like you know hit the lanes as well. And he does this over and over again. And I love it because like you know, he like at one point, I think versus um Yukon, they were putting like you know, two guys on him and and he's just boxing out two players. And what's great is like he gets fouled a lot, but what's cool about him is he does not complain until after the play is dead. He doesn't stop and turn to the ref and yell, oh my, you know, like you know, oh like you know, ref, you know, foul, foul, foul. Instead, he he will wait, he will shove guys around, he will get shoved, and then when the play is dead, then like you know, he'll turn and start talking to him. I love that because he has this mentality that you just shut up and play and then and basically don't waste any time because doing that can cost you stuff, right? So I love that like efficient mindset and that like dog mentality. I I really love his game.

Keaton Waggler Shooter And Creator

SPEAKER_00 31:26

Um, moving on to one of my favorite guards in the draft, uh, and that is Keaton Waggler out of Illinois. Uh, he's 19 years old, six foot six, weighing in at 185 pounds. Uh, his stats on the season were right under 18 points per game, right under five rebounds, a little over four assists. He shot 44.7 uh for his field goal percentage, his three-point percentage was 41, his free throw rate was at 80.7, and his uh player efficiency rating was at 24.5, which I usually don't get into PR because it's kind of you know, it can be very team dependent, you know, for that and box plus minus. But you know, a freshman with a 24.5 is just awesome. So I felt like that that was worth putting in here and really just you know kind of showing um how how efficient he was on the year. Uh, some of his key model indicators, um, he was a top five percent for his shooting tier at three. His uh his high level at the free throw line is also a really good translation signal. His assist uh being over four is really high for a scoring wing. Um, and his his PER is just overall is just very elite. Um his usage and his efficiency combo is a very top-tier offensive profile. Um, this is one of the cleanest uh efficiency creators slash uh elite shooters in the class. Uh Waggler's strengths, um, so Wagler's case is built on something extremely rare, which is high-level scoring, elite efficiency, real playmaking. He averaged nearly 18 points per game while shooting 41% from three and 80% uh from the line, which places him firmly in the elite shooting tier in my model. That free throw percentage is especially important. It confirms his shooting is real and highly translatable. What separates Waggler uh from your typical shooters is the playmaking layer. At 4.3 assists per game, he's functioning as more than just a score. He's actively creating for others, uh, for others. That's a massive boost to his scalability score. He also produced at uh as a high level uh oh, sorry. I'm like I wrote all this out, but you know, I haven't uh you know read it out. Well, I've not read it out loud yet. Uh he also produced at a high level consistently scoring in double figures in 28 games with multiple 20-point performances. This is not a streaky score. This is a reliable offensive engine. Uh, some of his weaknesses here. The bigness question for Wilder is his physical upside and defensive ceiling. At 185 pounds, he's not overly strong. And while he competes defensively, he's not projecting as a lockdown presence against bigger wings. His athleticism is solid, not elite, which may limit his ability to consistently create separation at the highest level. Additionally, while he is a strong playmaker, he is not a pure primary initiator. His best role may be as a hybrid scorerslash secondary creator. So we have his offensive breakdown stuff here. Um, so his combination of 41% from three, 80% from the line, uh 18 points per game of 4.3 assists is extremely rare in my model, and uh because it hits every major scoring and scalability indicator. He can shoot off the catch, he can shoot off the dribble, um, he operates in pick and roll, he's able to create for teammates. Uh, you know, his PR being 24.5 is so high, and it reflects not just scoring, but total offensive impact. Most importantly, his efficiency um holds with usage. That's the key signal here. He's not just benefiting from a role. Um, he was really a lot of the offense um for most of the year for um Illinois after Boswell got hurt. Um, some of his defensive stuff here. Uh, defensively, Waggler is more functional than impactful. Uh, he competes, rotates well, and understands positioning, but he's not generating elite defensive events or locking down top scores. His value on this end comes more from not being a liability than being a diff than being a difference maker. In my model, this slightly caps his ceiling, but does not hurt his overall production. Um does not hurt his overall projection due to his offensive value. So, like basically, you know, he somebody that will be able to play in a scheme. Um, you know, he'll be able to deny his man here and there, but he's not gonna be, you know, somebody like a Luke Dord or like a Tony Allen, you know, he's he's not gonna be a person that you can just put on an island and expect him to like really get you know like a stop there. But he should be able to do okay on some switches and things like that. You know, he's got really good length, but um, but it's honestly like at the end of the day, if your gar can just be like a passable defender, sometimes that is is just fine. Um, some of his best games, I had alluded earlier to his game against Purdue. Uh Wilder's best game of the season and one of the best in the entire class came against Purdue, where he dropped 46 points on a ridiculous 99% true shooting with nine of 11 from three and 11 of 13 from the line. This was the ultimate model game. Um, elite efficiency at extreme usage, which is almost at 30, almost at 36%, with a 182 offensive rating. This wasn't just hot shooting, this was high-level shot making under pressure against a major opponent. When a player can scale uh efficiency up with usage like this, this is one of the strongest translation signals that you can get. His second best game came against Wisconsin, who either put up 34 points and seven assists while carrying a massive 39.4% usage rate. This is arguably his most important archetype game, not just scoring, but offensive control. Even uh with that workload, he maintained solid efficiency, and the assist numbers show he wasn't just hunting shots. He was creating offense. This is where he separates from pure shooters. He can function as a primary offensive engine, not just as a finisher. His third best game came against Nebraska uh in a loss. Uh, Waggler finished with 19 points and 10 assists, posting an absurd 46% assist rate. This game matters because it proves the other side of his profile. He's not just a scorer. When defenses adjust, he can pivot into uh a facilitator role and still drive offense. Um, my model values this you know pretty heavily with scoring plus playmaking flexibility. Uh, this is what allows him to fit into multiple roles at the next level. His worst game came against Michigan State. This was his toughest efficiency night, uh, where he scored 16 points but only shot 37% uh for his true shooting. Uh, he went two of eight from three. This was a key weakness in his profile. When his jumper isn't fallen, his efficiency can really dip. Uh, however, the important context also is how he recovered. He got to the line 12 times and make 10, which kept his scoring afloat. Uh, that that shows offensive resilience, even in poor shooting environments. Like in general, uh, Waller uh does a good job at at getting to the line. Um, I don't know, I I don't it's like with his athleticism not being elite, I don't know how much that that's going to translate uh going forward. But I I think if he just you know gets a little bit stronger, uh, you know, he gets with those like you know coaches and stuff in the NBA, you know, gets on like a better diet, probably. I feel like um his rim pressure will also be you know pretty good. Uh when Waggler is at his best, he's giving you 46 on 99% true shooting. And when he's not hitting shots, he's still getting to the line or creating for others. That's not just a score, that's an offensive system.

Hans Steinbach Production You Trust

SPEAKER_00 38:18

All right, and uh the last guy that I wanted to talk about here, um that as I was going through, I was like, man, like I just I feel like he's getting no love and he's the most obvious uh possible big man star in the entire draft. And that is Heinz Stombach uh from Washington. Uh he is a big uh he's like I don't know, he's played a lot of center. I think he could play some power forward though. Uh he's uh 6'11, uh 230. He's out of Germany. On the season, he averaged uh 18.5 points per game, almost 12 rebounds, which led uh college, uh 1.6 assists. He shot almost 58% for field goal, shot 34% from the line uh from three, and then he shot almost 76% from uh the line. Some of his key model stuff here, um his rebounding is very elite at 11.8, especially for a freshman. That that's just bonkers. Um, he has a very high efficiency interior scoring. Um, his free throw uh really shows great uh a touch for his size. Um and his uh his shooting from three while low volume is still um emerges as like a possible offensive uh razor for his ceiling. Uh but like kind of pre-college dominance. Um, so before he ever stepped foot at Washington, Steinbach was already built one of the strongest international resumes in the class. At the 2024 FIBA under 18 Euro basket, he averaged 15 points, 13 rebounds, and made the all-term team selection. And Germany went on to win the uh gold medal there. Um and then at the next one, 2025, for the under 19, um, he averaged uh 17.4, 13 rebounds, again made the all-tournament team. Uh, that's not just production, that's elite production on an international stage against top talent. Even more important, um, he led the tournament in rebounding, consistently got double double. I'm sorry, consistently was double teamed uh and dominated physically and statistically. This is exactly the kind of early dominance that uh will curve in my model. Um his strengths, uh, Steinbock's profile starts with one word, and that is production. He averaged 18.5 and 11.8 rebounds in college, and that rebounding number isn't just good, it's elite. Leading the NCAA and rebounding as a freshman is a massive signal for NBA translation. The second major strength is touch and efficiency, shooting nearly 58% from the field and 76% from the line. He shows strong finishing ability and real touch. Something my model heavily values for bigs. What elevates him beyond a traditional interior big is the skill aid. He can step out and make threes at 34%, he makes quick decisions offensively, and he does not stall possessions. Uh, then when you combine this with his international resume, you get a player who has produced at every level, skill against better competition, maintained efficiency throughout. Some of his weaknesses here, though. Concerns with Hans are tied to his archetype translation. Defensively, he is productive but not dominant. He is not an elite, he's not an elite rim protector. And there are questions about how he handles NBA athleticism in space. While he has shown flashes of shooting, it's not yet at a high volume, uh, to really call it an offensive weapon. If the jumper doesn't fully develop his offensive ceiling, he becomes more role-dependent. From a model standpoint, this puts pressure on his skill development curve rather than his production baseline. Uh, Steinbox's offensive breakdown um profile is one that is more interesting in the class because it blends traditional big production with modern skill indicators. At Washington, averaging you know over 18 to 57 percent, uh, double-digit rebounds, functional and space from three. That's it's already a strong baseline, but when you layer in all of his international stuff, you start to see that he he's able to dominate at pretty much every level that he's had a chance to do here. Uh, my my model values this really heavily. Players who consistently produce across environments tend to translate because their success isn't system dependent. Uh, for his defense, though, um, his value is tied more to rebounding and positioning than to elite rim protection. His ability to control the glass is elite, and that alone will create defensive value by being able to end possessions. His size and awareness allow him to hold his own in the paint, but he's not yet a high-end shot blocker or switch defender. This is where the projection becomes important. If his mobility holds up, he becomes much more valuable on def on defense. Some of his best games that you should go and check out. Um, Steinbach's best performance of the season came against UCLA, where he dropped 29 points on an absurd 92% true shooting while adding 10 rebounds. He went 11 of 12 from the field and a seven from uh seven of eight from the free throw line, which basically uh is a perfect offensive night for a big. What makes this game stand out isn't just his scoring, it's the efficiency. Um, he had he uh rocked a 27.8 usage on that night and 179 offensive rating. This is exactly what my model looks for high volume production without sacrificing efficiency. That's not role play scoring, that is scalable offense. His second best game um came against Oregon. Steinbach delivered 26 points and 13 rebounds, an absurd 94% true shooting, uh, going seven of eight from the field and two of three from three point. Uh and he also uh Steinbach's second best game came against Oregon, uh, where he delivered 26 points and 13 rebounds on an absurd 94% true shooting, going seven of eight from the field, two of three from three, and six of six from the line. This is one of the cleanest indicator games in his profile because it hits everything. Interior scoring, touch, and perimeter flashes. When a big scores efficiency at the rim and hits threes while maintaining that level of rebounding, that's when you start to that's when you start seeing real upside beyond a traditional center roll. His third best game to go and check out was versus USC, where uh it really just kind of defined who he was. He had 22 points and 24 rebounds, including 12 offensive rebound boards. I'm sorry, 12 offensive boards, uh, which is insane at any level. Uh in my model, uh, this is like a dream. This is uh a Possession dominance, offensive rebound, and like that directly translates to extra possessions. Uh, and uh my model heavily uh values that even beyond scoring, this is a game where he completely controlled the outcome just by owning the glass. That is a translatable skill that doesn't depend on usage or on system. Uh, one of his worst games came against Oregon um when he scored 10 points on three of 15 shooting, finishing with a 27% true shooting, which is extremely low. This is the flip side of his profile when the touch isn't there. He doesn't uh yet have the counter moves or creation ability to stabilize efficiently. Uh, however, even in this game, he still grabbed eight rebounds, which reinforces the key point is that his floor is supported by rebounding, even when his scoring fails. Uh, when Steinbach is at his best, you're getting 29 points on 90 true shooting when he's at his worst. The scoring dips, but he's still able to grab eight rebounds. And when a big can dominate possessions like that, that is what really translates. Um, I love Hans's game. I think he is I don't think he's a player comp like this, but um, he reminds me of when um like our print shangoon was in the draft and he had all these great numbers, but people were like, Oh, yeah, but his feeder kind of slow. Oh, yeah, you know, like he's only like six nine. Oh, you know, it was there's all these little like nitpicks about him. And I'm just looking at him, I'm like, are we watching the same guy? Are we looking at the same same numbers and same statistics? Are we watching the same interviews? Like um, everything for me just screamed like like that guy was gonna be, you know, at the least, a really good starter. And instead he's grown into like an all-star caliber player. Does he have his issues? Sure, everybody has issues, but you know, if this is just one of those players where just do not overthink it. Um, I think that Hans will easily at some point be um a quality starter in this league. I don't know if he ever hits all-star status, but I can I can see him being, you know, a player uh, you know, that is just you know, you know, good for you know 10 to like you know, 13, 14 years uh and starts for remember like in 10 of those years or something. You know, he just I think he's gonna add a lot of value for a team. Um sorry that that took forever.

Draft Takeaways And Next Week Tease

SPEAKER_00 45:55

Uh, but these are the guys that I think um at the very least will be uh you know really good starters, role player quality guys that you can you can if your team drafts them, you're gonna love them for the next you know eight, 10, 12 years. Um, all these guys, I I would be I would happily take them on my favorite team. You you should very much so welcome them on your team. Uh, but come back next week as we're gonna go the other way, and I'm I'm gonna be talking about the players that I am fully out on. So, as opposed to to being my guys, these are the guys that I'm leaving out in the cold. Um, so until next week, uh remember to watch more basketball.

SPEAKER_02 46:32

I've been doing this for 10 years. This is he's two years away from being two years away, and then we'll see.