Rookie Of The Year Blueprint

Rookie of the Year talk gets messy fast because we argue about what “should” matter instead of what actually wins votes. So we did the unglamorous work: we looked at the patterns behind recent NBA Rookie of the Year winners and built a simple, usable framework for predicting who gets serious ballot traction in a loaded rookie class.

We start with the biggest reality check in awards forecasting: draft slot matters a lot. The top of the draft gets the longest leash, the clearest marketing push, and the quickest path to a featured role. From there, we dig into why “winning basketball” and advanced metrics like VORP and PER do not reliably decide ROY, even when they point to the better overall player. The award often tilts toward opportunity, usage rate, minutes per game, and loud counting stats across 65 to 75 games. We also talk about the hidden variable nobody wants to admit: voter bias and narrative.

Then we rank our 10 Rookie of the Year candidates, from deep long shots to the favorites, using role and runway as the backbone. We break down how players like Darius Acuff, Darryn Peterson, AJ DyBansta, Caleb Wilson, and the No. 1 pick case for Cam Boozer fit the model, plus why a few talented names may not get enough touches to keep up.

If you’ve been looking for an NBA ROTY prediction guide that’s grounded in how the league actually works, this one is for you. Subscribe, share this with your group chat, and leave a review, then tell us who you think wins Rookie of the Year this season.

Transcript

Welcome And The ROY Problem

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Welcome back to the Draft Stash podcast. My name is Andrew. It is July 23rd, 2026. And on today's episode, we're getting into this amazing draft class with so many great rookies. I mean, how do you find the rookie of the year with there's so many options? I might have found the answer, but first, I gotta hit the intro.

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One of the most exciting brands I can remember in the years I've been doing this. I think this brand is the best.

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What is up, everybody? Man, we're just moving through. I I think we're about to hit the dog days a little bit, or like we're just kind of scraping by for uh for information here and there and just basketball stuff. Luckily, we have the world champion qualifiers in about three weeks. So we'll get to see a lot of the international guys, and you know, fans of the Grizzlies, we'll get to see Krim Lopez and there's a whole bunch of fun guys here. So I plan on covering a lot of draft prospects when that happens, but until then, we need to worry about these draft prospects, right? Um so every year we see the rookie of the year rankings come out, but I don't think a lot of people really know how they approach the award, or maybe it's being approached the wrong way. So I'm trying to figure out how do they figure out how they rank things, right? So, so so what makes a great rookie of the year? And so what what earns votes? Because sometimes it feels like, you know, okay, a player that has crazy stats and that person gets a lot of votes, or sometimes it feels like it's a it's more in line with the players that uh whose teams are great and a lot of their stats build towards a lot of wins. And sometimes it's right in the middle. It feels very inconsistent, but I have found uh through doing some some research here and there, a couple of of really common threads I think are worth looking into. So we're gonna get into that in terms of how we're gonna kind of like quantify how to find our rookie of the year, and then we're gonna get into my ranking of the 10 players I think that have a really good chance. Well, I'm saying really good chance, the 10 players that have a chance to win rookie of the year. All right.

Rule One Draft Slot Dominates

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First off, draft position matters. I went back and looked at since Palkasaw in 2002, I was shocked. So of the winners, that would be 26 winners, I believe, in that time, 10 of them were the number one overall pick, but 11 of them were between picks two and five, which means that 21 of the 26 winners came between picks one through five. So we're right right there, you're gonna need to, you know, we we we're kind of gonna have to laser focus in on one through five. Now, the other five winners, uh, four of them came between pick six to I think pick 11. So, you know, there's a little bit of range there. Most of those were were low. I think the only two were pick nine and pick 11 that you know won beyond being like in the top 10. And then of course, there is the the one outlier, and that was Malcolm Brogdon with the Bucks, where he was pick 36, I believe. But but yeah, so so 21 of the people come in the top five, and 10 of those are the number one. So it so just starting off the bat, we're gonna have to like really look at at our top five, because that's probably where it's gonna come, especially in this year, where there's a lot of all-star level talent with the top. So it's probably gonna come from them, but you know, that doesn't make for a very exciting show.

Why Winning And VORP Mislead

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Beyond that, winnings is is just as well, it's not gonna matter. What I saw was there was players who won, like Andrew Wiggins, even you know, Stefan Castle here here recently, uh, you know, Paolo, who had uh really low Vorps, which is value over replacement. So it's kind of like how much impact that that person brings in terms of their their on off the court. Um so not really just like a specific box plus minus of the overall game, but just how how the game is impacted when they leave and come back on. And if there's a whole bunch of numbers into it, but basically, this is how much value that they bring on the court. Andrew Wiggins and Castle had a negative, so they actually hurt their team overall when they did play. Palo had like a 0.3, so so he barely even even affected them. Guys like Marco Carter Williams, you know, was also super average. But then in contrast, you know, there's guys on the on the other scale, right? There's Chris Paul, man, he was awesome as a rookie. He, I think his his his warp was 5.1. So he added like an extra five wins just as a rookie. Then his PER was a 22.1, which is just insane. I mean, for for a veteran, that is like incredible. I mean, like for for y'all to like understand uh your perspective, like Jokic, I believe, averaged like a 9.6 VARP last year. So, so, and then in his MVP year, I think it was like a 10. So you're like the top of the list. So the the tippy toppy is uh a 9.6 or a 10, and Chris Paul as a rookie was a 5.1. So that is just insane, insane stuff. Wimby was a 3.8, and his PER, I think, was a 23.1 or something. So, you know, but so so so those guys obviously are awesome, and so they're in the in the other other end of the category, right? So if we're on this like x-axis, y-axis, you know, chart here, those guys are obviously you know awesome, and and they should win you know, rookie of the year. And then you look at the middle, and there's guys in there like you know, Kevin Durant, you know, Braun, and you know, these guys were legends and they had really basic years. You know, in fact, I think like Pagasol had a better rookie year than you know, Kevin Durant and LeBron James, and like just a bunch of other guys. So it's just weird that it doesn't really mean that you're gonna be like an all-star or or or this hall of famer, really, because that there's guys at the bottom that that didn't become those things, and there's guys at the top that that are insanely good. So it's just so there's no real consistency there, right? So so we can't really look at a person being winner and and bringing team success and getting team wins because that's not really gonna help us determine if that person is gonna be like a rookie of the year, because in a lot of these cases that there were other rookies that were actually better than the people that were our you know, rookie of the year. So it's not really about winning then, right? So

Opportunity Beats Talent Most Years

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we we have to look at the next thing, which is gonna be our third rule here, it has to be opportunity beats talent, right? So it feels like you know, it's not really you know, PER, it wasn't Vorb, it was really just opportunity. So, you know, the questions that we're gonna have to ask ourselves is is that person starting? Is he gonna get to play at least 30 minutes a game? Is he gonna be allowed to take like you know, say 15 to 18 shots a game? Does the offense get to run through that person, right? So I think opportunity, you know, will allow you to kind of just like put up these really cool stats and people are really the only gonna it's we're it's weird, right? So as a rookie, it's the only time that people will not look down on that person for having like these these empty calorie stats. It's it's very, very strange, right? Because even like last year, you know, with you know Conka Nipple and you know Cooper Flag, the argument was well, like you know, Khan's numbers maybe maybe weren't as good, but he was more efficient and his team was better. But then you look at Cooper Flag and his numbers look better, but you know, it was on a team that it wasn't very good. And so the Hornets fans are trying to argue, well, you know, you know, like a team winning should matter, and then Dallas fans were saying that like you know, it's not a team award, it's it's it's just like a rookie of the year award. It should just and the truth has to be in the middle somewhere, right? Because we see that people on both spectrums are the ones that are like winning here.

Counting Stats And The Real Formula

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So then rule number four, it feels like counting stats, right? So, so you know, players that average between 18 to like 22 points are usually winners, players that that get a whole bunch of usage, and guys that get a lot of run, right? So the rookies that are able to do, let's say, 65 to 70 games at least, those are usually your like main guys getting votes. So our players gonna have to be super consistent, they're gonna have to have a really great runway. Their winning isn't really gonna matter. What's gonna matter here is them getting really good opportunity, then them getting to start and uh and just getting a lot of of leeway to make mistakes, right? So our players are gonna have to be able to get a lot of shots up and you know be able to just, you know, kind of just you know play in their own style and system. So with that said, I'm kind of like putting together this, you know, you know, criteria here. So it's gonna be a little bit of you know, you know, opportunity is gonna be like the around 35% for us usage on on that player, excuse me, on that player needs to be around 25%. Talent is around 20%. The the team situation in terms if they're kind of like, you know, kind of a winner, you know, it helps a little bit, but but not really. And then the the advanced metrics are just like uh like a paltry, you know, five percent here. So so so the the advanced metrics aren't aren't really gonna matter here in the rookie. So with that said, you know, I don't this isn't like a draft board. This is not like you know who's gonna have the best career. This is just me saying of these 10 players, this is who I think have a good chance at winning rookie of the year. So let's just get into that. All right,

Long Shots And Runners Up

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so just for fun, we're gonna start uh from 10 and then and then go to one because you know, otherwise people would just like you turn it off. So we're gonna start with our runners up here. Kingston Flemings, I think, you know, he he was close to making my list. My my my biggest concern here is he might get some run, but he's most likely not gonna start. I don't see them starting him over, you know, CJ. In fact, I don't know if CJ's gonna start. You know, they they might start Dort now, right? So I don't get this, I don't think he's gonna start over Dyson. He's not gonna start over like Walker either. So just in general, he's not gonna get a lot of run unless there's like a big injury. So and his current odds, I think, are he's uh a plus 10,000, which is not great. But you know, even then his offense didn't look super good in summer league. That that was the one thing that just didn't really look good, which you know, you don't have to like put a whole bunch, you know, of water into that bucket. But on defense, he did look really good, right? So, you know, that there's obviously some talent there. I think he's a player that is gonna grow as the year goes on. I just don't think he's gonna get the real option here to get like a lot of like run in that same vein. I also have LeBaron Phylon also in my list here, right? So I think he's uh a plus 25,000 actually. So he's gonna be playing behind, unfortunately, Anthony Simons, uh, you know, Tyrese Maxy, VJ. So, you know, he's also gonna have issues, you know, get in there, but I really feel like if he can, you know, kind of work his way into maybe like you know 20 to 25 minutes a game somehow, he's the type of like a player that I think is gonna put up really good numbers just because you know he could almost be like maybe like a Jamal Crawford, just like you know popping off the bench, getting you like you know, 14, 15 points a game. You know, I like I could see him being in that you know, sixth man of the year, or if there's a lot of injuries and he gets a start, you know, almost like you know how Jeremy Cain did, you know, like you know, early on. I think you know he might be able to put up some pretty good numbers. So like I wouldn't be shocked if he's able to like you know kind of do some stuff. The third person here, uh, put Cam Carr on here. He is plus 15,000 currently with the odds. And I have him on here because you know, I don't I don't know who they're gonna start instead. You know, like some people have said, you know, Jake La Ravia, who I'm sorry, he's just he's not a starter in this league. He's barely like an NBA player in this league. And and they they they've lost other guys. I think Cam Carr, you know, kind of gives them a different dynamic that you know Luca would really like to play with, which is a guy who's gonna be able to run, he's gonna be able to get behind defenses, he'll be able to hit threes on the wing, you know, and he can jump, right? So I think all of those things are something that is really going to accentuate Luca's game. And so I I kind of like the idea of maybe him be maybe getting to camp and kind of like earning his way there. You know, maybe it doesn't start you know immediately, but I can see him getting some time, man. And maybe like, you know, a couple of things happen here or there, and he might end up getting like you know, maybe 25 minutes a game. So I you know, he is a long shot, but I I could see him maybe putting up some like okay stats here. So let's get into the people that I think are actually might might have a real shot here. And number 10, I kind of feel weird putting this guy on here, but I have Hannes Steinbeck at number 10 here. He is plus 25,000. I he to me, he is a pure upside selection. I think he has all the tools, but he will face a like a tough path in terms of that offensive workflow. But Charlotte kind of you know took a step back. I don't think that they're worried about you know the overall process of winning this year. So I don't I don't think that really matters, right? I also think, you know, like who's who's really you know currently like in front of him? You know, they you know could they traded away Miles Bridges, who was their power forward. They they bring in Naj Reed, who's been pretty much like, you know, a like you know, a backup five man for a while there. You know, Ryan Kalkbrenner was I think like a round two pick last year, and he played fine, but he really showed a lot of his limits. You know, I I wouldn't be surprised if they just let Honish run early, man. And I think that would be the the right call. Now, if let's say that that does happen, and let's say he he gets like you know, maybe 25 minutes a night, he you know, he probably plays you know 70 games or so. I think there would be opportunity there, right? But in this new offense that they're trying to do, I'm wondering if like Conka Nipple, Brandon Miller, you know, Kobe White, I wonder, you know, who all of the shots are going to be going to. I could just I could see him maybe, you know, raising some eyes, man. And folks thinking, like, wow, like you know, he's averaging like you know, 13 and and and like nine as a rookie or something. Like I could see him maybe making that you know all rookie team, or if like maybe if he really pops, you know, so it's obviously like a long shot. You know, he's plus 25,000, so obviously it's a long shot, but I've like I think he'll have a chance here. Number nine, I have Merez Johnson. He is plus 10,000. Big men rarely win unless they're they're just putting up very like elite scoring numbers. You know, you'd like you'd look back, Damian Lillard beat out Anthony Davis, who was who was you know also good as a rookie, but you know, I think Lillard for the most part just had like higher stats. So it's it's it's kind of hard for you know big men to win, but I think he's like a really good value pick here. You know, he is going to get to start. I fully expect him to play at the power forward, but he'll also be able to play at the four and the five. You know, he he's super versatile. I think he's gonna show it on both ends. You know, I he's definitely a person I could see that could, you know, maybe get like 13 or 14 points, you know, you know, liking it per night, you know, and then also get you like maybe like eight boards a game, and then also maybe like, you know, an assist, maybe like a block and a half, a steal. I feel like I feel like he's a guy that could, you know, put a lot together and then maybe his team wins a little bit as well. And so it might give him a little bit of that, you know, punching power here and there, but you know, I think he'll need to average a double double while also anchoring Dallas' defense. And and in doing that, he'll have to make them look much better on defense, right? So you know it's gonna be like a really you know you know tough task here for him, but I still think he might have like a puncher chance here. Coming in next, I would say Michael Brown is also on here. He's currently plus 1500 to 2500. He is a tremendous creator, but there will be questions about when he gets to touch the ball and and where, right? So with him and and egore, like you, I wonder who's gonna be on the ball and who's gonna be off the ball. Like, like, is there gonna be like this this, you know, uh I come up and then and then pass to you and then you pass to me. Like, I'm wondering if it's just gonna be like an offense that's gonna be really off the ball heavy because you're still gonna have, I'm assuming at the beginning of the year, you're gonna have Michael Porter, you know, who is gonna want the ball in his hands. You're gonna have, you know, Julius Randle who works uh really well on the ball, and it's also like this, you know, creator. So, you know, it this it's like when you're making a team on like a video game, like like all this stuff is fun, but you know, when you're having to put these guys together for real, you know, you you need to you know understand, you know, certain guys work certain ways. I just maybe it works, you know. I just like I'll have to see it first because Michael was very up and down at Certain League, you know, he he had some moments that were really great. He had some some moments that look like it did in college, man. But you know, but I think if Brooklyn gives him primary ball handling duties, his assist numbers could could be pretty good. I I could see him maybe averaging like maybe six or so a game, maybe like you know, 15 points a game, hitting some threes. Like I if that team you know pops a little bit because it does have a like an okay starting five, their you know, bench is not very good, but you know, I could see them you know maybe winning, you know, let's say 29 wins or maybe like 30, you know, or something like that, like and just you know, kind of growing a little bit. So I could see that, but it's gonna be kind of tough. Moving on to the next one, and that is Yaxel Lindebor. He is currently plus 2000. He is one of the the most NBA ready players in the class. His summer league showed that he can do a lot of things very quickly. Like nobody ever questions if Yaxel is gonna be an NBA player or if he's gonna be able to, you know, fit. You know, he's been incredibly versatile. His you know, his biggest issues have just always been his level of maturity and his his age, right? But you know, so he's I think he turned 24 in like a week or so. And you know, he can't help those things, and but you know, so he's just gonna have to be really great, you know, right now. So you need light and everything. So he's not gonna have a long runway to kind of be mediocre. And he's also painting like a target on his back. But if he gets to start from from the jump, right? So if he gets to start at the three, and then you play, you know, you know, green at the four or the five, you know, and then you've got uh probably Pacinski and then Curry. I don't think they're gonna get James, but you know, it it might happen here or there. But but let's just assume that Yaxel's gonna get a pretty good runway here. I think he could easily have a year where he averages like you know, 12 points and six boards and five assists, and maybe like over like a still and a half and a block and a half, and his team wins some games. Maybe they are in that playing range again, and and he's like a pretty big factor and he plays like 70, you know, four, seventy-five games. You know, I think he could definitely be in that in that rookie of the year running and maybe in that like first team for sure, right? So, you know, I just think that he needs Golden State to trust him with more offensive responsibility than expected. Otherwise, his impact on winning is is gonna be really hard beyond just the like box score. Number six, got Keaton Waggler. He's currently plus 2500 to 3500, just based on the bookie that that that you're looking at. He is, I don't know, man, like I feel like he could be like a really great sleeper. He he was you know drafted you know fifth. You know, his question isn't really his talent, it's just gonna be is his role gonna be you know good early on? Now, with them trading away, you know, you know, Kawaii and kind of done this whole, you know, it's not gonna say like it's it's not definitely not gonna be a quick rebuild because they don't have their you know picks and it's gonna be like like I think they've there's some weird pick swaps, you know, still with the thunder and everything else. Um but him and Garland, it should let him to play off the ball, which he showed that he could do, you know, pretty well, like him, him and and you know, Boswell, but he also plays at like his own pace. And when he's able to kind of do his own thing, that's when he looked really good in Summer League. It's kind of when they they were having him like speed up and play at other people's pace, you know, it kind of looked a little funky, and then he really couldn't, you know, find his lanes correctly. But then, you know, he starts to you know get his jumper going. I think that's gonna be one of his best weapons early is his ability to shoot because that is just gonna get you on the floor in general. Now, having to play twos versus point guards is gonna be kind of tough for him. You know, he's not the best athlete, his his wingspan is okay, it's not great, and his his vertical ability is also not great, right? So it might be a lot of them trying to hide him here and there. And Garland's already also not a very good defender, so that could just could be a pretty, you know, lopsided backcourt in terms of of how they get stops on the defensive end. Yeah, so it's really just gonna come down to, you know, if if he if he if they let him start from the beginning and he averages, let's say, around 30 minutes, I think he could, you know, be a guy that averages like 15 or 16 points a game and gets, you know, four or five assists and four or five rebounds. Like I can see him putting up those stats because his team's not gonna be good. But if he gets all of the runway to just do his thing and just grow as much, I think his numbers could be good enough for him to be in that and that argument and maybe win a couple of those like you know, weeks here and there of that like you know, offensive rookie and things like that. All right, now

The Top Five Candidates

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we're gonna get into the top five here. I think this one is not really like a surprise, and that is Darius A. Cuff at number five. He's currently you know plus 450 to plus 800 based on what you look at. Uh, you know, guards with the ball in their hand have historically been really dangerous rookie of the year candidates. You believe, you know, I mean, like Sacramento is gonna give him the best offensive runway than any other market would. You know, he's going into a situation where they're just gonna have him do whatever he wants, you know, and that was really clear in summer league and his his efficiency numbers were not good. And I feel like it's just gonna be that in the season, right? He's gonna get, you know, 20-something shots probably a game. He's gonna get some assist numbers, he's probably gonna average, you know, more turnovers than he did in the pros, but he's probably gonna average you know 18 to 20 points a game, you know. But I feel like it's gonna be really detrimental. Like, like he's one of those guys where his vorp and his PER are not gonna be very good. Um, his team just in general is not very good. So, you know, he's already gonna have this really uphill battle, but you know, I'm just wondering how it's gonna go because they've got Zach Lavine there and and you know, Sabonis and you know, Max Renaud, and I'm just wondering how it's all gonna gel together because there's so many guys that could easily be moved, you know. And I'm sure Darius Acuff just wants to go in there and and do his thing. Now, his defense just effort needs to work, man. I mean, his his point of attack defense was at least okay in some instances, but his off wall defense was man, it Was it was hard to watch sometimes, but he could be a high, high assist, high scoring rookie with you know plenty of on ball reps. It could quickly put him in that conversation as a person who you know as I I could I could easily see him coming out in the first month just like just on fire and then just slowly falling back as his his numbers just don't really you know get more and more efficient. But I definitely think he'll be in that conversation for for most of the year. All right. Now now we're getting into the you know top four guys here. I think Darren Peterson is at four. I I could be wrong there, but you know, I I just kind of where I currently have him. He is currently plus 325 to 400. I'm you know, similar to AJ, he is an elite prospect, but you have to question whether he's gonna have the volume, right? So it's not about talent here. It's just he's going to a team that is gonna have you know George at the point, it's gonna have Ace Bailey at the three, it's gonna have Laurie at the four, Jaron probably at the five. Then their their bench also has guys here and there. So it's just, you know, he I don't think he's gonna get the I mean, like I'll be shocked if he gets you know over 12 or 15 shots a game. Like, like, like that would be very, very shocking. So I just do not think he's gonna be, you know, volume-wise, I don't think he's gonna get enough runway to even get up to like 18 points a game just because there's so many other mouths to feed, he's gonna have to come in behind so many other guys. He'd like Laurie when he's good, man. Like he can give you like an easy, you know, 22, 25 a night. Jaren's not really uh like a heavy dosage scoring guy, but you know, you know, he he likes to also you know hit his spots and pick his moments, and George was a very heavy diet guy last year. So it's just gonna be weird to see if Ace Bailey can also grow and then you're all you're adding in this player. And so it's just it's gonna be a weird dynamic early on as they all try to you know figure out a way to work within that system together. So I just Darren's gonna be obviously he's not a long shot, but he I I've got I have him at four because you know, he all awesome talent. I just don't think he's in a situation where they're gonna let him run the show, and that's what you kind of need to win, right? Going into number three, I have AJ DeBansta, plus 380 to 400. He's arguably the most talented rookie in the class, but you know, my concern is usage here rather than talent. Kind of with you know, Darren Peterson. You know, AJ, you know, he's got you know kind of bigger fish on his team, actually. You know, he's got Trey Young at the point, he's also got Anthony Davis, you know, he's got Alex Sarr, who looked pretty good last year. He's got Trey Johnson, he's got Will Riley. Like, there's just there's players all all over this team that are gonna want the ball in their hands. They're their their best skills are actually scoring. So I just it's gonna be weird because like Trey is very much on the ball. He runs a lot of those screens, but AJ likes to also run that stuff. So you you talk about maybe doing like inverted stuff, but I just I just don't know, man. AJ looks like a pretty willing passer, but I don't know, his creativity is not as good as other people in this class. I think it's kind of a little overrated, actually. So I think it's gonna be one of those funky things where it just takes a little bit of time for him to like really get going. But I I could see him easily averaging like 20 or 21 a game in his first year if they give him the shots and the touches. It's just gonna be a lot of you know, I mean, maybe some like egos are gonna get like a little bruised here because I don't think Anthony Davis or Trey are gonna be okay with just letting this guy come in and and be and be the person who just runs the show, right? But if if he wins, I think he immediately becomes Washington's offensive centerpiece instead of sharing a significant portion of the offense. I think if they go into it and say, hey, AJ's gonna be our guy, the whole goal is is we all work off of him, then I I definitely think that he has a great chance of winning. I just don't know if that's gonna be their

Caleb Wilson’s Highlight Case

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goal. All right, getting into our last two players here, I have Kayla Wilson at number two, plus 425 to 950 in certain markets. This is where you're you're betting on opportunity over consensus, right? He has one of the clearest paths to becoming the team's primary offensive option while contributing across the box. Where we saw in summer league, you know, he he put up really good numbers. I mean, his team didn't win, but as we just discussed, that's not gonna matter, right? So in most cases, winning does not matter. His his ability to affect the game overall is not gonna matter. What is gonna matter is him having those nights where he scores 30 and he gets five blocks and he gets like two steals and he shuts down somebody and has a dunk. Like the more buzz he's able to build off of that is what is gonna get him votes. There's, you know, as much as as people hate on like the these advanced analytics nerds, in more cases, often than not, it's the people they they vote off of bias. It's not even about numbers, right? So it's it's guys who who don't like certain players as rookies, guys that that that enjoy certain teams instead. A lot of bias comes out in this stuff, right? So if Caleb is just able to build a case on like a highlight factory of him doing things, that's really all that's gonna matter. It's not gonna matter that you know he's shooting like you know 40% overall and that his his shot from three is that 30% or something. If he's averaging, you know, 21 a game, eight eight boards, you know, over two blocks and doing this and this, right? Like people aren't gonna matter because they're just gonna say, oh, well, he's just a rookie. It's it's fine that those numbers aren't you know, in terms of his efficiency, are not good. This is just like a really great basis for how he's gonna grow. That's all that people will care about. So I think Caleb is incredibly exciting. I can easily see him being a guy that you know comes out the gate averaging 20 points, eight boards, four assists, you know, maybe around uh almost two blocks a game. I can see him get a steal a game. I can see him putting up numbers everywhere, and his team still wins like 24 games, you know. So I just, you know, I don't think they should worry about Josh Giddy being the guy there. You know, maybe Norman Powell, you know, I'm not sure if he just went there for money or if he believes in that system. It's probably just about money. But if he's willing to just be a guy that just works off the ball almost like a Desmond Bain and not really worrying about being on it that much, I think it could just be like a lot of fun. Man, I would just let Caleb do Caleb things. Let's just not get in his way. Let's just let him, you know, grow and be great. But I could easily see him winning rookie of the year. At number

Why Cam Boozer Is No. 1

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one, I have Camboozer. I know it's gonna sound biased, but not really. You know, he's currently the odds on favorite at plus 240 to plus 330, and he just checks every box, right? He is a top five pick. He's gonna have a like a great runway of usage, his team should be good enough to win some games to give him some notoriety. He's gonna have a really heavy featured offensive role, and you know, so and he should, you know, being on the team, the team will improve and he'll get a lot of credit for those wins. So I think just a lot of those things are gonna work in his favor. If he plays, you know, 70 plus games, that'll be huge. I I don't think he'll crack 20 points, you know, per game this year. You know, nothing that assault summer league really shows that to me. I think he's gonna be a guy that might get you maybe 16 to 17 at most as a rookie, but I can see him maybe getting uh, you know, six to seven rebounds as a rookie. I can see him get maybe you know over to three assists, but then also, you know, maybe shooting like in the low 50s, something percent, you know, as full goal, maybe like a true shooting percentage of like in the mid-60s. I can see him hitting, you know, high 30s on threes, you know. So I can see him doing a lot of that winning basketball that you know that you know people will love because it's winning, but it won't be very sexy. And then he'll be the most annoying person because he'll be he'll be at the top of these lists the entire year. And people are like, it makes no sense. You know, like he he hasn't had one game over 40 points, you know. So it's gonna be a lot of these guys having these just crazy nights, but these just really, really like low valleys. While I think Cameron's gonna have, you know, like these peaks that are not super high, but he's gonna be riding peaks most of the year, as opposed to like having these you know massive drop-offs. Now you

The Braden Burries Debate

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might be wondering why I don't have Braden Burries on here, and that is because I don't know if they're gonna give him the runway that he needs. I think Brayden was very good, and I think he was like a little over maybe plus 10,000 or so. And if it was me, I would sit Ryan Rollins, I would start Braden Burries. I think it's silly for anybody to think anything other than that. I mean, Ryan Rollins was a guy, you know, like I he was very high, I'm gonna say very high. He he was a first-round pick for me in that draft. I really liked him, and I'm glad that he finally found a situation where he could show his value uh with Milwaukee. With that said, if the Grizzlies had Braden Burries, I would want to start him. You know, you know, I mean, like it's just silly. And you and like I really like you know Pippen and I like Ty Jerome and those guys, but in no world am I going to start Scottie Pippen on a team that is trying to grow and build over Braden Burries, who who shows more value overall, right? And and Pippen would be like a godsend for a lot of teams, you know. Like he he's a really you know capable, you know, guy that at like as a defender, he's a good rebounder, you know, he's an okay athlete, he shoots okay, like he's a very solid guard. And I think he'll probably end up starting. But Braden Burries is is should be you your future there. And unfortunately, you cannot sit Tyler Hero. He's gonna be the person that a lot of people come out to see, probably. So I don't know. If it was me, and the Jenkins is probably gonna bring him along slowly, unfortunately, because that's that's one thing that Bucks fans are gonna get annoyed with is you know, he he's I just hope he doesn't do what he always does, which is he sticks certain players in the corners and makes them these you know catch and catch, you know, 3 and D guys. It's very, very frustrating. He did it with Zaire Williams, he did it with Gigi Jackson, he did it with, you know, he just just every with Aldama, he just he does it to these players that it's not really their game because he doesn't really know how else to use them based on the other tools out there. So I hope that doesn't not happen to Burries, but it if he gets to start and he gets to be like a major role, I could see him also being able to you know make some real noise here and be on those like all rookie teams and maybe maybe crack the first team. I don't see him, you know, winning rookie of the year, but I could see him maybe averaging like you know 14 or 15 points a game and then and then like a multitude of like other stats. Awesome.

Full Ranking And Listener Challenge

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Okay, so with that said, we're gonna go through it a little bit just real quickly. Camboozer at one, Caleb at two, AJ at three, Darren Peterson four, Darius Acuff at five, Keaton Waggler six, Yaxo Lenneborg at seven, Michael Brown at eight, Mares Johnson at nine, and Hannes Steinbach at ten. I think all these guys in the right situation, some of them much, much more than others, because you know, we we know that usually the top five picks, you know, kind of hit it there. So like I had to have I had to have all those guys in there. And Darius A cup, I have him hired just because I know he's gonna be crazy stats, right? So with that said, let me know who you think is gonna be in rookie of the year. Am I off in terms of how I I decided to to build all this like information? You know, is is is winning more important than I'm I'm than I think it's gonna be, or are are stats less important, you know? Just let me know next week. I'm going to finally be diving into 2027 players. I'm gonna be talking about some of my favorite drop, some of my favorite prospects going into the 2027 draft, and then we will be starting to get into all of the world qualifier stuff, guys. So until next time, be sure to watch more basketball. I've been doing this for 10 years.

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This is he's two years away from being two years away, and then we'll see.