The Coalition Games, Election Fever and the Battle for the Knesset

Israel appears to be heading toward another election, but this episode goes beyond the headlines to explain how the Knesset, coalition politics and Israel’s voting system work. 

In Politica Israel podcast, Sharon and Yuval unpack why this election is so consequential, from judicial reform and Netanyahu’s trial to the growing debate over the future of Israeli democracy itself.

Watch it here: https://youtu.be/ATMSUCE6uQc

Transcript

What Politica Tries To Fix

SPEAKER_00 0:08

This is Politica. Israeli politics explained at a diaspora volume. Welcome to a new podcast from the Jewish Independent. Israeli politics always seems very complex, very chaotic, and very loud. Lots of yelling into microphones and sometimes even into empty rooms. This is a critical year for Israel, and election fever is really now in the air. Even though we don't have a date, I think it would be safe to say that the election has started. From the outside, it can be genuinely hard to tell what really matters and what's just distraction. So at Politica, our aim is to turn the volume down so you can really just have a 30-minute chat about what's going on in Israeli politics without really needing to follow all of the news. I'm Sharon Offenberger joining from Australia, and with me is my co-host, Yuval Regev, from Israel. As

Early Election Signals And Draft Law

SPEAKER_00 0:59

we speak, the very first official moves began towards what is likely to create a slightly early election. It'll might be more like September than the 27th of October, which is technically the last date to hold an election. This was actually initiated by one of the government's coalition partners, and they're looking to dissolve the Knesset and preempt an early election. Joval, tell us what's happened there.

SPEAKER_01 1:24

Okay, so shalom, sharan, and shalom to our listeners. And election fever is uh is very high right now in Israel. We're experiencing very dramatic political days, uh, and everyone knows it's coming. Uh it's right around the corner, right? So we're going into the summer, and right after the summer, it's gonna be the fall. And if it's gonna be in September or October, those are, you know, that's a that's not a big difference, right? So we are in the heat of the elections, and some say these are gonna be the most critical, the most dramatic elections in the history of Israel. We've said this before on the show. I mean, they say this about every election, but this time we know it's different. We know it's different because, you know, because what happened in the past three and a half years here in Israel is unprecedented, and the region is changing rapidly, and Israel is changing rapidly. And so these elections are all that important and all that fundamental for so many core issues. Now, what we're seeing in the in the coming few days is basically the process of moving towards election, and it all begins with a vote of no confidence. Now, in Israel, as uh the Knesset, and we'll we'll dive into this, but the Knesset is the one that has to form the government by you know a majority of 61 Sikhs in the Knesset. Um, and they give the government its legitimacy to operate within that majority from the Knesset. So usually the ones to push forward a vote for no confidence are the opposition. And they can do this anytime throughout the government's rule. They've done it several times before, but for it to work, for it to have a majority in the Knesset, they have to find a coalition partner who is willing to vote with them. And that's the threats that were being that are being made right now by the ultra-Orthodox parties. And we'll just say, I mean, it's not for the first time, that an Israeli government is falling because of this clash between governments and the Orthodox parties. And on the main ticket issue, which is also a main election issue for this cycle, is what we call the draft bill, or really the bill to legally exempt ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students from military service. And that's a big ticket issue in Israel. If you're following Israeli politics, you know that already. So now you know that uh we're probably gonna see quite soon the Knesset dissolve, and then it takes, you know, a few more rounds of voting after the preliminary vote. But you know, within uh three months, we should be seeing elections after the bill is passed.

SPEAKER_00 3:31

So

Knesset Basics And Voting Mechanics

SPEAKER_00 3:32

let's give our audience a bit of an explainer around really what happens when uh in the election process and the voting process and how the Knesset is built. So, in order to make any sense of it, let's just start with the basics. And there are 120 seats uh in the Knesset. That the Knesset is Israel's only parliament. It's really central to Israel's democracy because of that. The Knesset makes the laws, it selects the Prime Minister, and it also holds the government to account. The 120 Knesset members don't represent a specific or geographic electorate. So that's a really major difference in Australia where we have a local representative that we vote for. They will be from a party or or might be independent, but they really represent a specific area, and they get then voted into the parliament. In Israel, it doesn't work like that. The MKs don't represent specific electorates. What they represent is a political party. And then when you vote, you all you're doing is voting for a political party. You have one PETEC, and you put that PETEC, it has the party that you want, and that's it. That's the the the beginning and the end of the voting process.

SPEAKER_01 4:38

It's a simple process with a very complex outcome, I would say.

SPEAKER_00 4:42

It starts simple and ends complicated. I find that that particular difference says a lot about the difference between Australian politics and Israeli politics. Because in Australia we have our local MP. Whether we voted them for them or not, we are their constituents, and so they have accountability and responsibility to that region as well as to their party. In Israel, Israeli MKs are really just answerable to their party and not to individual voters in that way. And I think that explains a lot about why Israeli politicians behave the way they do, because they're actually trying to prove their value to the party selection committee or to its leader. And it's worth noting that only a minority of parties even have a primaries process. So a lot of times a political party is just appointed by the leader. So you have a very different sense of responsibility and accountability there. It's worth noting as well that Israel does not elect the Prime Minister directly. They did try the system, it was scrapped back in the 90s. But it's the Knesset members that then recommend the Prime Minister. And then there's a process which actually involves the President by which the government is then formed through that. And as you've noted, the government can only exist as long as it has the confidence of a majority, at least 61 out of 120 MKs. And then they have the opposite need to be able to block any dissolution votes that come in in the four years. We are more or less, as you've noted, basically at the end of a four-year process. This is actually not an early election in Israel's particular political history. Often they do not even last close to the four years.

SPEAKER_01 6:25

And it's so true. And I think it's also stunning to so many Israelis, specifically after October 7th, and I'm sure also to many listeners around the world, stunning that this government has lasted this long. And it just goes to show how a strong coalition, right, when all the partners have a very deep interest in maintaining the life of the government, it can be maintained. Israeli governments fall quite quite often.

SPEAKER_00 6:50

But in this case, it is actually the government's coalition partners that are moving this process forward, not the opposition.

SPEAKER_01 6:57

Correct. But one of them, right? One of the coalition partners, which is the Austro Orthodox. And uh some would say, or some analysis will say, that, you know, that this could also be something that they agreed upon and advanced, right? They need to find the right date for the election, uh, they need to find how to move forward without passing the very controversial draft bill. So it could be the right timing for all partners, right? You don't have to necessarily have to read into this, right? Especially with the ultra-orthodox, where their politics are very much a politics of uh sectorial interest. So when we hear this kind of talk about them voting uh, you know, for the motion of non-confidence in the government, that doesn't necessarily mean that they are, you know, no longer confident in their alliance with Netanyahu. It might just mean that they want to get to the other side of the next election sooner than later.

SPEAKER_00 7:47

And we should expect them to continue to be part of that coalition in future governments. Um, it's not an indication that they're considering moving their loyalties to a different side of politics.

Coalition Math And Who Sits Together

SPEAKER_00 8:05

So if you mentioned the importance of a strong coalition, talk to us about the way in which coalitions are formed and the significance of coalition building uh in Israeli government formation.

SPEAKER_01 8:18

So, again, we we addressed how messy Israeli politics may look from the outside, but the mechanism is super duper simple. Israelis vote with one PETEC, one note. We have it here on the podcast, uh, on the podcast cover, right? You vote with one note in the ballot box, and that note represents uh the party that you most associate with your values, okay? And it could even be a party that you know you associate with specific, very specific, you know, legislation that they want to pass and very specific ideas that they have. And depending on the percentage that they receive from the overall voters, that's how many Sikhs they receive in the Israeli Knesset. Uh so up to now that's simple. But for them to rule, for them to form a uh a government, they need to create a group of at least 61. And this is where things get really interesting, because this is where the whole process of give and take between the parties starts to unfold. Uh and so when you vote in Israel and you're voting for a party uh that represents you, at the end you're also thinking what their end game is gonna be and who they're going to form a coalition with. Uh, and that's what makes things so interesting. Uh, I might be all right with Netanyahu and his policies and his leadership and the Likuds and the Likud values, uh, but knowing that the Likud uh usually form coalitions with the ultra-orthodox or with the ultra-right or with the settler movement could put me off the Likud and say, okay, I want to vote for more moderate centrist party, uh, which is the case for many Israelis today. Uh same goes for the other side, though. Okay, I might, you know, be a you know a moderate center voter, uh, and I want, you know, a moderate uh leader like Bennett or like Lapid, or but I for absolutely not can accept the fact that they would form a coalition with uh, for instance, Arab parties or even have the support of Arab parties in the Knesset for them to form a government. And that could be a reason for me to go to the other side. So really it's all this game of who you're willing to sit with, as much as what you believe in.

SPEAKER_00 10:13

So voting in Israel, I think, could probably compare it in the same way that when you marry someone, you marry their in-laws, but in this case, you're marrying an entire family. And then you've mentioned that they will actually be judged on usually on the extremes of that coalition and the extreme people in though in that coalition. So,

Threshold Power And Turnout Gaps

SPEAKER_00 10:36

what I found interesting was Israeli Democracy Institute survey, it's called the Democracy Index. It came out in late 2025, and it asked whether Israelis felt represented by their parties. And according to that study, only about 26% of Israelis said there is a political party that closely represents their views. And then about one-third said that there's no party that represents them at all. And I think that's a very powerful reflection about why coalitions have become such a feature. Israel has never really been a two-party system, no party's ever won a majority of seats. But certainly those two main historical rivals, Liquud and Labour, have devolved into, I think, possibly a 10-party system. And that's why the elections are quite uh difficult to predict. But it's also why the threshold becomes a very significant part of the process. So let me just explain what the threshold is. So, in order to enter into the Knesset, a party needs to have 3.25% of the vote, and that would then give them four seats in the Knesset. There are a number of parties that hover around that number and they may or may not get through. And if they don't get through, that that basically reallocates the rest of the votes and can have a significant impact on the results. But if they do pass and they get those four seats, they can go from extinction to kingmaker overnight as well. So this election threshold also has a really big impact.

SPEAKER_01 12:08

And this is kind of a, you know, it's a it's a paradox because the majority of Israelis will vote for uh the bigger parties, right? Uh and that's obvious, right? The parties that have 30 Sikhs, 10 Sikhs, 15 Sikhs, right? They represent, you know, big chunks of the Israeli society. But this whole system that allows for smaller parties, right, parties who only have you know 3.25% of Israelis supporting them and can have and and therefore receive four Sikhs, as you mentioned, um, that's that's a huge hugely significant and it's got its pros and it's got its tongues. Because if we look at the pros, right, the word is representation. Okay? It means that you know, however small a group I am, however small an interest group I am, however small a sector I may be, right, uh I can form a party and I can have a chance to be in the Knesset. Uh and that's exciting. I can have a good chance to push legislation for issues that matter to me. And we saw some great examples over the years, right? We saw a pensioners' party form in an election about a decade ago, and they rolled in seven Sikhs. Uh, and you know, with the with the with the promise of taking care of Israel's senior citizens and pensioners. We saw a party form, you know, that I used to work for uh Moshe Kakhlon, the Israeli finance minister, who branched out of Likun to form a party solely for the issue of social justice and the housing crisis. And they brought in 10 Sikhs and they and they brought in a lot of significant impact. Small parties, because they're needed to form a coalition, can really make or break the government. Uh, and they have that power. Uh and sometimes they can use that power, you know, for good or for what we would consider good, like, you know, moving on the housing crisis or taking care of us and your citizens, but they can also use that power to promote or to coerce, you know, otherwise moderate governments into much more extreme positions.

SPEAKER_00 13:49

And I think that sometimes there's not so much focus on policy as there is on identity when it comes to these small groups. So there will be certain parties that um certain voters gravitate towards, not necessarily because of policy, but because of identity. And why that matters is because the voter turnout also has an impact on the results of the election, including whether some of these parties pass the threshold. In Israel, voting is not compulsory as it is in Australia. And I think sort of an average about 70% is considered a good result these days. I think it was higher in the 70s, went low. Um, but let's call it 70% as an average is considered quite good. But that doesn't, that's an average. So that doesn't then uh reflect certain sectors within the population. And I'm thinking of two which or tend to very much vote in an identity way rather than a policy-driven way. So one community is the ultra-orthodox community, and their voting rates are very high, higher than the average. Extremely high. Extremely high. I believe it's can be up and up to about 90%. Correct. So that's 20 points above the average. And on the other end, the Arab Israeli sector tends to vote much lower than the average, and I think in their case about 55%, I think maybe they got up to 60% in a particular election. So between differential voter turnout, between all of the different parties and interest groups, that the government isn't so much the voice of the people, the voice of the majority, as a bit of a roulette of numbers, who turned out, and often quite a lot of horse trading between the parties about what they will and what they won't accept in order to sit together.

SPEAKER_01 15:28

Very true.

SPEAKER_00 15:29

And I think it's very interesting that some sectors are very committed to voting and other sectors are uncommitted or disengaged. And that is not necessarily a function of how committed they are to Israel's democracy.

SPEAKER_01 15:44

I think the rule here is the more extreme of an ideology you have, whether it's a political ideology or whether it's a religious ideology, uh, the chances are you're gonna go vote and uh and you know, commit to that ideology and make sure it makes it to the Knesset. Uh while people who are more moderate and who can, you know, maybe tune out of Israeli politics and who maybe you know feel like they have the privilege to, you know, to not care and to live their lives, usually those kind of people don't have extreme views, right? And so the voting percentage in Israel is that dramatic because the less Israelis vote, the more power disproportionately makes it to the extremes.

Judicial Overhaul And Netanyahu’s Trial

SPEAKER_00 16:21

And let's just connect the dots a little bit there. So the people who were highly engaged in elections are not necessarily the people who are highly committed to Israel's democracy. They may be more committed to using a certain majority in order to undermine some of Israel's democracy. And I think that's exactly what we saw happen with this current government, who was elected in late uh 2022 and proceeded pretty much straight after they were elected to table a series of legislative bills that would in practice significantly change the jurisdiction of the High Court, in fact, to limit the jurisdiction and the powers of the High Court. And that of course led to massive protests that we saw throughout 2023 up until October the 7th. But then, you know, even through this war and through all of these other things that are happening, somehow the government continues on this process of trying to pass these uh bills. Some people call it judicial reform, other people refer to it as a judicial overhaul. And the reason I bring that up is because that may have been the biggest election issue if all of these other election issues hadn't now joined the list, including the one that you uh raised at the beginning, which is the reason why the Kharedi parties are looking to dissolve the Knesset around the draft law. So that itself, the issue of whether or not the Kharedi population should be in compulsory army service alongside other parts of the Israeli population is a massive uh election issue. But they are very keen to limit the High Court powers as part of their ideology, because the High Court is the whole reason that that issue is even on the table.

SPEAKER_01 18:02

Correct. And and look, I think there's something something that needs to be said about the dynamic of Israeli politics over the past 20, 30 years, the majority of which uh Netanyahu has been the prime minister and the leader of uh of the coalitions and of the governments, is that up until very recently, most of the Netanyahu governments and most of the Netanyahu coalitions were formed with a moderate centrist party and partner. We've seen coalition governments with Netanyahu that have been formed with the centrist party Yeshet, today, you know, represents the left-ing center in Israel in a very moderate voice. We've seen coalition governments of Netanyahu even with labor. Uh, we've seen that Netanyahu government uh coalitions with Sippin Lisney, uh, and she was giving the mandate, you know, to go and negotiate peace with the Palestinians. Uh Netanyahu gave her gave her that mandate as a, you know, as part of her joining his government. So Netanyahu always loves to have coalitions where there are more moderate parties and where there are parties to his left. Okay, and then he can kind of create the more center extreme. And to be frank, uh you know, Israel saw 20 years uh of relative, relative uh political stability and growth and economic growth and relative security, again, that exploded, um, due to this kind of leadership, due to coalitions forming around uh a broader consensus. What happened with this government and why it's so dramatic, and why the Israeli center no longer would form any alliance with Netanyahu? And even, you know, the even the very right wing factions of the Israeli center, who were previous partners of Netanyahu, and I'm speaking about Naftali Bennett, and I'm speaking about Avikdol Lieberman, who was perceived to the right of Netanyahu just a few years ago, right? Even they no longer want to form coalitions with Netanyahu. And the main, main issue, as you mentioned here, is the issue of the Supreme Court. And this was triggered uh by Netanyahu's trial. The minute that Netanyahu was indicted by the state prosecutor, and the minute you know the trial became a reality, many parties said, That's it, uh, we're not gonna join you anymore. The minute the trial turned into a reality uh was also the minute Netanyahu stood up, it was a very famous frame, standing on the stairs of his trial, all the kud ministers behind him kind of supporting him, and basically the prime minister of Israel saying, you know, this is a witch hunt, and I'm against the Supreme Court. And then when he was re-elected and managed to form a coalition with partners who are all with him on that agenda, that's when the what we call the judicial reform or judicial overhaul, the really big push towards the judicial system and towards the legal framework, and towards many other gatekeepers, by the way, as well, towards the media, towards the police, um, that's when that became, you know, such a prominent part of their agenda. Uh, and that definitely alienated the Israeli center and of course the left.

SPEAKER_00 20:49

It's a very obvious issue there of the rule of law. Uh, there's a moral issue there of a prime minister being a prime minister while he's standing trial. And I think in most countries, a prime minister would probably step aside during that time. So there is a moral issue. I know it's legal in Israel, actually, for the Prime Minister to continue. Ironically, if you're a minister and not the Prime Minister, you wouldn't be able to continue your duties. Uh so there's an anomaly there that perhaps was overlooked. Maybe you could tell me, but it seems it was overlooked because who would ever think that someone morally would continue to serve as Prime Minister while understanding?

SPEAKER_01 21:25

It's not that it's legal, it's just that it's not it's not illegal because it was never thought of by, you know, by the Israeli uh lawmaker to, you know, to have to draft that kind of law.

SPEAKER_00 21:34

What these parties have understood is that there's a change there was a change to the rules of the game. And once there's a change to the rules of the game, the political process becomes a a lot more complex. And I think that's really, you know, these are sort of the undercurrents of everything that we see now, this sort of shift in the rules of the game, and more directly speaking, in the basis of Israel's democracy. And that's why the the issue of democracy keeps coming up again and again and again.

SPEAKER_01 22:00

That is worth mentioning within this discussion, okay? Because notions of kind of limiting the power of the Supreme Court in Israel are not new. They've been held by many uh right-wing parties for years, uh, and also they've made they've trickled their way to the center, okay? Uh and even if we look at you know, if a leader like Neftali Bennett, who today is, you know, a big name in the Israeli center, right? His party was known, and his his justice minister, Ayeda Shakid, was known for having a very strong stance against the uh what they called disproportionate power of the Supreme Court.

SPEAKER_00 22:30

So wanted to have influence on appointment of judges.

SPEAKER_01 22:34

Correct, correct. So so these aren't new ideas uh in the Israeli rights or in the Israeli center. And you know, and you could argue uh that they have merit, okay? And and some and some do argue that they have merit. But when they were combined with Netanyahu's trial, and when it became so personal to him, right, that he's going to push a huge piece of legislation, a huge reform against the very system that is currently holding him to trial, that's when things really, that's when people, even people on the right who believe in reform and who believe in uh in changing the judicial system, that's when they said, enough. We can't have this.

SPEAKER_00 23:17

When you

Diaspora Stakes And Israel’s Democracy

SPEAKER_00 23:18

say that this is possibly the most crucial election, it's because this is not just the outcome of a single election. It's really Israel's future and trajectory as a democracy that is at stake. And that's why I think Jewish communities in the diaspora, whether they realize it or not, are deeply invested in what happens next, whether that's emotionally, politically, culturally, or historically. There are many election issues that we'll unpack, but I think none are as salient for the diaspora as Israel's status as a liberal democracy. And in fact, under this government, Israel's status as a liberal democracy has already been downgraded. In 2024, VDEM, which is a leading international democracy watchdog, demoted Israel from being the top tier, which is a liberal democracy, down to what's classed as an electoral democracy as a result of the work that this government is doing in order to limit the powers of the High Court and the judicial system.

SPEAKER_01 24:15

And uh, and to be frank, it's not just a democracy index, it's also our national credit score. Uh, and when the big firms in the past years have uh demoted Israel's credit in that national credit score, they didn't even say it was because of the war or because of the terrible, you know, uh catastrophic issues that have happened here, because they know that Israel the Israeli economy is quite resilient to war. They said it was because of this whole democracy index and because of the judicial issues.

SPEAKER_00 24:40

And I find that while diaspora Jews, especially now, and I've heard it during the recent hearings um of the Royal Commission into Anti-Semitism and Social Cohesion here, that people in the Jewish community raise this idea of maybe I need to live in Israel. And one of the things that I think is very important for them to understand is that that might be a choice about whether or not they want to live in a liberal democracy as well, if Israel does not change its trajectory from where it's at now. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

SPEAKER_01 25:07

Yeah. Let's hope it yeah, let's hope it never comes to that. And let's hope uh we remain a liberal democracy.

SPEAKER_00 25:13

Well, we'll actually have to return to be a liberal democracy at this stage. Um and these are the things that we're here to unpack in politica. I know they're a very emotionally charged topics, but I think if we can engage with them thoughtfully, um, this is an investment in our future, both in Israel and in the diaspora. And understanding the Knesset doesn't mean you have to agree with everything that goes on there, but it is certainly worth trying to understand not just the narratives and the catch lines and the political slogans, but to really have a nuanced understanding of what is also a complicated system, but that also has become a personal political struggle for the Prime Minister.

Key Takeaways And Subscribe

SPEAKER_00 25:55

And we've also managed to demonstrate that you can discuss Israeli politics at a reasonable volume. So please subscribe and follow us wherever you're listening to our podcast. We'll be back to unpack what Israelis are arguing about, what they're not arguing about ahead of the election. This was Politica, Israeli politics explained at a diaspora volume. Until next time, keep the volume down.