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Copper Weekly returns for episode eight — Mike and Albert unpack a week where copper prices pushed to their highest since early June. The big theme? For once, the market appears to be moving on genuine fundamentals rather than sentiment alone, as stocks draw down sharply across both the LME and China.

In this episode:

Back to Fundamentals — Copper's cash price pushed above $13,800/t for the first time in weeks. Albert explains why this rally looks different, driven by real stock declines rather than macro noise, and poses a thought-provoking question: is the market following fundamentals, or just following fundamentals because they happen to be bullish right now?

The Stock Drawdown Story — On-warrant LME stocks have fallen around 72kt through the first three weeks of July, down to roughly 120kt from over 350kt in mid-April. Albert walks through the two distinct phases of decline, first in the US on arbitrage moves, then in East Asia on genuine Chinese demand.

The Scrap Invoicing Angle — A change to Chinese scrap invoicing regulations, tied to VAT and tax rebates, may be reducing scrap availability and pushing semi producers towards cathode instead. Albert explains why this nuanced factor could be quietly supporting demand.

Curve Structure and the Arbitrage — The LME has flipped into slight backwardation while the CME holds a firm contango. Albert unpacks what this reveals about tight nearby supply, high CIF premiums into China, and the ever-present tariff expectation baked into CME pricing.

Brownfield vs Greenfield — A run of restart and expansion announcements, from BHP's Cerro Colorado to Hudbay's Constancia and KGHM's Sierra Gorda, puts brownfield firmly in focus. Albert makes the case that brownfield, often dismissed as unadventurous, is doing far more heavy lifting than it gets credit for, with over twice the near-term tonnage of the greenfield projects Benchmark tracks.

Weather Disruption in Chile — Strong weather systems have hit Chilean ports and mines, with brief disruption at Codelco's Andina and El Teniente. Albert explains why the impact looks more concentrate-focused than cathode-focused for now.

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Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals.

Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market.

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