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Copper Weekly returns for episode nine — and this week the show does something different. For the first time, Mike and Albert are joined by a special guest: Scott Crooks, principal analyst at Codelco, who brings deep experience from both research houses and one of the world's largest copper producers. Together they tackle one of the most talked-about and most misunderstood concepts in the market: the copper supply gap.

In this episode:

What the Supply Gap Really Is — Benchmark's base case puts the 2035 supply gap at around 6.6Mt, a number that gets thrown around widely in the media. Mike, Albert and Scott dig into how these charts are actually built and why the gap is best understood as a modelling output, not a prediction of a literal shortfall.

An Artificial Gap? — Scott makes the case that for large mines with existing infrastructure, the modelled decline is somewhat artificial. Companies rarely shut a mine outright; they drill, extend and expand. In his view, the size of the gap tells you more about the price response required to bring supply online than about any real future deficit.

A Call to Arms — Albert reframes the supply gap as a challenge laid down to the mining industry rather than a forecast of doom. Waking up short several million tonnes in 2035 simply is not how it works; the gap is a nuanced signal of what needs to be done, not a guarantee of what will happen.

If the Incentive Is There, Where's the Supply? — With prices near $13,600/t and Benchmark's incentive price around $11,500/t, why hasn't a wave of new supply arrived? Scott points to hard lessons from post-financial-crisis overcapacity, shareholder pressure, quarterly reporting cycles, and the stark contrast between Western majors and state-backed Chinese investment taking a longer-term view.

Limited Upside, Unlimited Downside — The panel explores why brownfield expansions have become the preferred route to de-risk projects, why greenfield megaprojects remain scarce, and how M&A activity absorbs capital without necessarily adding new supply.

Squaring the Demand Side — From thrifting and substitution at high prices to the outsized and often overlooked role of Chinese construction, Albert explains why demand forecasts for nascent sectors like AI and the energy transition deserve a healthy dose of caution.

The Key Takeaway — Understand what the supply gap is, what it isn't, and what closing it will actually require: greenfields, brownfields and technology all coming together at once.

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Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals.

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For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com