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LME Copper Hits New Records as Treatment Charges Collapse
Copper Weekly
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Copper Weekly is back for episode eleven, and the headlines write themselves: the LME cash price has now spent six consecutive days above $14,000/t, its longest run at that level ever. Mike and Albert dig into what's driving the record run, why treatment charges have collapsed to fresh lows, and lay out detailed scenarios for how the US tariff situation could play out. They also answer listener questions for the first time.
In this episode:
A New Kind of Record High — The LME cash price has broken its all-time high while the three-month price hasn't, a reversal of the pattern seen last time records fell. Albert explains the mix of factors behind it, from a weaker dollar to a DRC concentrate export story with limited real substance, and the ongoing pull of copper into both China and the US simultaneously.
Treatment Charges in Freefall — TCs have crashed through minus $170/t, a level Albert says would have seemed unthinkable even a year ago. He breaks down the structural imbalance between surging smelter capacity and slower growth in concentrate supply.
Tariff Scenario Planning — With no fresh developments on Section 232, Albert walks through Benchmark's scenario work: continued delay, immediate implementation, delayed implementation, and no tariff at all. He explains why prolonged uncertainty may actually suit the current US administration, and why nearly every scenario looks bullish for prices in the short term but bearish in the long run.
Listener Questions — In a new segment, Albert addresses two audience questions: whether AI hyperscalers are lobbying on tariff policy, and whether tariffs are really the right tool to rebuild America's copper smelting capacity.
New episodes every week. Follow and rate the show, and keep the questions coming for future episodes.
Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals.
Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market.
To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper
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For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com
