Copper Weekly returns for episode twelve, marking a third consecutive week of all-time highs. But this time the story isn't just about price, it's about shape. Mike and Albert dig into a dramatic backwardation on the LME, what it reveals about nearby tightness, and why the rally already looks to be unwinding by the time of recording.

In this episode:

A Different Kind of Record — This week's record was set on the cash price rather than the three-month, as the LME slipped into a steep backwardation with the front month trading around $400 above the next. Albert explains what that shape tells us about physical tightness right now.

Contango vs Backwardation, Explained — For listeners newer to the terminology, Albert breaks down the basics: why futures markets typically trade in contango, and what it means when nearby prices spike above future ones instead.

Two Hungry Markets — With both China and the US pulling hard on available material, Albert unpacks the cancellations seen in LME warehouses across Taiwan and Korea, and why that pattern points to genuine Chinese demand layering on top of the ongoing US pull.

A Rare Arbitrage Flip — The LME briefly traded above the CME on the nearby month for the first time in months, even as the forward curve told a very different story. Albert explains why this doesn't signal a repeat of earlier CME-to-LME stock shifts.

What's the "Real" Copper Price? — Albert offers a rough estimate that copper's fundamentally justified level sits closer to $10,000-11,000/t, with the premium above that reflecting the ongoing tariff-driven pull of material into the US, a factor that has to unwind eventually.

Copper vs Aluminium — With the copper-aluminium ratio sitting around 4.5 times, Albert discusses where substitution becomes economically attractive, and why the impact often gets diluted well before it reaches the end consumer.

The Week Ahead — Albert flags LME deliveries and the backwardation itself as the key things to watch, especially after a sharp reversal saw prices tumble from record highs within the same trading day.

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