Gary’s Call: What the Rest of 2026 Actually Looks Like

In this episode, Wade Lopez and Gary Aiken analyze the first half of 2026, discussing market performance, geopolitical influences, and sector opportunities. They provide insights on navigating volatility, sector rotations, and strategic investing for the second half of the year.

Transcript

Announcer 0:00

Views expressed are solely those of the speakers and do not represent this show or its team.

SPEAKER_03 0:04

There's always a reason to be pessimistic, right? There's always that wall of worry that's out there. And uh bears and bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered, all that kind of stuff. But over time, bulls make more money than bears. And so prudent, prudent investing with an eye to rewards risk management. Uh we're gonna we're gonna do good. We're gonna be able to accomplish our financial goals in the future.

SPEAKER_01 0:29

Welcome to Built to Last Conversations on Wealth, Work and Life. I'm Wade Lopez, joined by our Chief Investment Officer, Gary Aiken. Gary, welcome back. Great to be here, Wade. Yeah, so uh we're at halftime, and the first half of 2026 didn't go exactly like most everyone scripted. The SP 500 reached a new high, inflation moved above 4%, oil spike, the Fed started talking about raising rates instead of cutting them, and the market still gained about 8 to 9%. Today I want your honest read on the second half of the year, not the Wall Street consensus, but what the data says investors and business owners should expect between now and December 31st. Gary, let's set the table. Does the first half of 26 look like a foundation for what's coming next? Or are we living on borrowed time?

SPEAKER_03 1:23

You know, Wade, I don't think uh the markets uh have a cancer diagnosis or uh some kind of a terminal illness. I don't think we're living on borrowed time. I think we're living in a uh in a great, a great timeline where we should all have long uh equity-driven return lives ahead of us.

SPEAKER_01 1:42

Before we talk about where we're going, let's be honest about where we've been. First half of 2026 delivered returns almost nobody predicted. Corporate earnings were strong, forecasts moved higher. Wall Street now expects SP 500 to finish somewhere between 7,800 and 8,000 by the end of the year. But the headline doesn't tell the whole story. The average company and index fell as much as 21% at some points this year. So while the SP 500 held up, the gains were far less evenly distributed than they appear. So, Gary, walk us through the honest first half scorecard. What went right, what went wrong, and what surprised you most?

SPEAKER_03 2:26

The interesting thing is that uh, you know, about half of the sectors in the S P 500 outperformed the S P 500, and half the sectors underperformed. Certainly technology was a great place to be, and but even within technology, there was some problems, right? Software underperformed while uh while semiconductors and semiconductor equipment, you know, was clearly the star. Um uh but but we had lots of lots of great uh companies doing doing great things throughout. And you know, that's why we ended up with about a 10% return for the SP of 500 in the first six months of the year. Um you know, outside the US, markets were up as well. So developed markets, uh emerging markets were all positive were positive. Um, you know, we had a good first six months to the year in bonds, as you talked about, yields up, prices down, but we came into the year with uh higher coupons than we normally would have uh in years past, and so bonds were more or less flat. Um, so you know, a good good start to 2026.

SPEAKER_01 3:30

AI spending is driving much of this year's earnings growth. The four largest tech companies plan to spend $725 billion this year. That's up 77%. And AI related companies account for roughly half of the SP 500 earnings growth. So, Gary, when one theme is carrying that much of the market, what does it tell you about the health of everything underneath of it?

SPEAKER_03 3:56

I think it it doesn't tell us a whole lot about the strength of the under of the other companies. Um, you know, if seven or eight companies are doing this, what does it tell you about the other 492? Um I don't think it tells you that much. I think you have to look at each of these companies individually and see what they're doing and why their stocks are moving the way that they are. Um, I think what it does tell you is that those companies were clearly outshining uh everyone else and and therefore, you know, got re-rated higher a couple of different times during the year.

SPEAKER_01 4:34

Moving into this next topic about oil, you know, it was at 112 in April because of the Iran conflict, accelerated inflation, um, and it kind of took Fed rate cuts off the table. Oil has since pulled back toward these, you know, pre-conflict levels. How much of the first half story was geopolitical noise versus actual structural market behavior?

SPEAKER_03 5:01

You know, we saw the geopolitical conflict play into market dynamics in a couple of different ways. Certainly we got the excess volatility that that we had been talking about in uh in March after the uh the in the uh the the war started on February 28th. And so for those 30 days that the war was really going on the first time in earnest, we saw markets draw down. We saw strength in the dollar, we saw weakness in foreign currencies, we saw people selling gold, selling bonds, selling whatever they could to get US dollars, uh, we saw oil spike as we said. And so as we look at the second half of the year and we see the war in Iran, you know, starting back up in earnest, right? Uh, you know, one of the things I want to point out is, you know, we've restarted the clock on the War Powers Act. And so, you know, 60 days from the time that the war started will be September 10th. 90 days, the outside date is October 10th. And of course, we have elections about 30 days after that in the U.S. Yes. So um, we have to think about the war in the context of what does it mean for oil, what does it mean for volatility, and what does it mean for the U.S. election cycle as well?

SPEAKER_01 6:15

The Schiller-Kate ratio crossed 40 in January and it hit 41.6 by May. That's the second highest in over 140 years, right? So that's not a timing signal by itself, but it is context. Are these levels heading in going to be the same, lower, higher, going into the second half of the season?

SPEAKER_03 6:37

Yeah, I think what it means is two things. One, valuations have gotten a little stretched. Uh, so, you know, here we are, deja vu again. We said that at the beginning of the year. We're saying it at the at half at the half point of the year, which is, hey, valuations have gotten a little stretched. We think investors ought to think about valuations. You know, the way we think about it is just, you know, normal rebalancing uh within within portfolios. Um uh and uh and in terms of sort of valuations overall, um, you know, there's an expectation that earnings are going to grow to support those valuations. And so the other thing that we're going to be looking for in the second half of the year is that these companies that have gotten re-rated higher, uh, that they are bringing in revenues and and earnings that that are supportive of those valuations. And secondly, I think the other offshoot is that we what we've been saying for a while is that, hey, at some point in this AI revolution, a lot of other companies that are not quote unquote tech companies are going to start experiencing the benefits of AI in on in their bottom lines. And so we would expect to see to start to see some of that, and that will be confidence boosting as well in the second half of the year.

SPEAKER_01 7:58

Yeah, and there's there's a handful of things are going to determine what it looks like, which I'm, you know, first the Fed. I think nine of 19 officials now favor raising rates before year in, and the market is pricing in a possible September hike. That would be a major reversal for investors who started the year expecting rate cuts. Second's inflation, CPI reached 4.2. And producer price rose 6.5, lower oil prices may help, but inflation in services and housing and consumer goods continues to be stubborn. Third is AI. The first half was about spending heavily to build the infrastructure. The second half will be about providing that investment. And and can it actually produce revenue? So, Gary, of those three variables, Fed policy, inflation, and AI earnings, which one carries the most weight for what happens to markets between now and the end of the year?

SPEAKER_03 8:56

I think it's AI earnings. Um like you said, the the tech uh concentration in the S P 500, the the uh proliferation of AI spend amongst even you know companies that aren't tech companies, uh, you know, seeing some ROI on that is gonna be the most crucial thing. Like you said, the Fed probably on hold. Inflation gonna hover around current levels. We don't expect too much from either of those. If if we get sort of non-events on those two, it's obvious that the that the AI one is the is the one that's gonna affect you know market valuations and and price movements. Cool.

SPEAKER_01 9:35

I agree with that. So let's walk through each of those scenarios though, and look like what what do they look like in terms of real market impact? If oil stays low, inflation moderates, and the Fed pauses versus inflation, which could prove stickier and the Fed hikes in September and markets reprice. What does each path actually mean for a portfolio? Like the IPO pipeline for the second half is extraordinary, right? But what does that mean now for each portfolio? Yeah.

SPEAKER_03 10:02

I think let's start with oil, because you started there, right? Our viewpoint may be a little contrarian, which is that you know, we generally think as our base case that oil is going to be elevated uh for the foreseeable future. We think that the idea, uh the Pollyannish idea that uh Iran is all of a sudden gonna roll over and play nice and change, change their ways, uh, I think that's that's like I said, I think it's Pollyannish. And so we think that, you know, there's gonna be issues in the Strait of Hormuz for the foreseeable future. So I think that that means that marginal oil supply will not be transversing the easiest path, and so you'll have a little bit of a higher price for oil. We think that energy companies are probably good places to continue to be in. They've had a good, good first uh first part of the year, and then as oil prices came down, they they came off again, and now oil prices are going back up and they're having a good a good run again. But we think uh, you know, higher profits, higher dividends, uh, and and less vol and a sort of a volatility dampener against the AI story. Um so that I think that's that's one place to start. Um in terms of in terms of tech, um, I think the spending continues, uh, but the spending may be disconnected from the price of stocks. And so we think that like we talked about valuations-wise, um uh you know, we're st we're at high valuations to start the second half of the year. A pullback in some of these names, even as the spending continues, is probably something that investors should should anticipate. But if the spending continues and the stock prices go down, I think there are good chances for us to to buy more shares in great companies.

SPEAKER_01 12:00

Second half has is gonna have some new potential, right? In the IPO pipeline. We've already seen SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all, you know, or I saw some discussion about Anthropic again today. And those are those are gonna be potential listings. We've seen what SpaceX done, which uh you predicted a couple shows ago, it's kind of, I think, you know, it did exactly what we maybe went a little higher than we initially anticipated, but it fell below value. Um so what does a waiver that that that's this size, I mean, that's the largest obviously in my lifetime. What does that do to an existing portfolio allocation in the market dynamics?

SPEAKER_03 12:42

Um, well, SpaceX uh will be coming into indexes, you know, much later this year. Um, and so you know, there'll be there'll be some index buying of it. Again, there'll be a lot more uh releases of long-term owner shares coming into the market to dilute it. Um I think the interesting, the most interesting ones are definitely going to be the open open AI if that resurfaces and anthropic uh IPOs, because we'll start to get some numbers. And like you said, the the the whisper numbers from anthropic are that revenues are growing. There are they are actually profitable, which uh which we didn't which we heard from OpenAI that open AI was not profitable. Uh but anthropic was theoretically profitable to the to the tune of almost a billion dollars in the in the first uh first quarter or the second quarter of the year. And um, and so that that's a real company earning real profits, which of course uh uh you know I like, I love profits. Um no no no uh shame about that. And uh and so uh I think if we get some numbers out of Anthropic that show what the spend is, what the diversity of that spend is, what the visibility on additional spend is, that's gonna trickle down to you know uh all the compute manufacturers, all the um all the memory producers, all of the people building data centers will say, yep, we gotta build more data centers, and that means we're gonna need more of uh more gas turbines and more light bulbs or whatever, whatever it is, you know, more screws. Uh, you know, it filters down through the rest of the economy. And uh so that that'll be really important. But but I think that, you know, I'm I'm fairly bullish on that one.

SPEAKER_01 14:32

Yeah, and like you, you know, market broadening was definitely a theme, right? But it was a theme heading into 26, and it held until the Iran conflict kind of snapped, right? So it's it's back to a handful of AI names. Does the second half look like continued concentration or genuine broadening out in the sectors that have lagged or been kind of behind?

SPEAKER_03 14:57

I think the the laggards are probably going to continue to lag, and the winners are probably gonna continue to win. That that's that's my guess. Now, there may be some there may be some companies that that were laggards that that can catch up a little bit. Um and we'll be looking for those stories. In every industry and sub-industry, there seem to be winners who are continuing to win. And I don't see a lot of stories where there are turnarounds that are sort of being affected. Um and uh and and I think that there will be a broadening out. That's been one of our themes. And in fact, the you know, as we're speaking, I think the uh the equal weight SP 500 has actually overtaken the market weight year to date. So, you know, one of our things at the beginning of the year was that we thought there would be a wide uh broadening out uh from the concentration of last year. Um but uh you know, I think some of those Mag 7 names that that haven't done as much this year, uh, we could see some of those start to start to outperform in the second half of the year as well.

SPEAKER_01 16:05

Yeah, I I would agree. Let's get specific. So, Gary, what do you see as far as you know real opportunity in the second half for investors? Where do you think investors are not paying enough attention right now when it comes to risk?

SPEAKER_03 16:19

I think uh investors have gotten a little bit exuberant and have forgotten that sometimes stocks go down. You know, every year, once a year, we have at least one 5% pullback. Every, you know, every two years we have a 10% pullback. Every, you know, three or four years, we have a 20% pullback. And so I think that um, you know, we we got a little bit of a pullback in March. I wouldn't be surprised if over the summer we get another pullback. Uh, you know, and and certainly since it's it's an election year, you know, there's gonna be there's gonna be uh you know uh stories about stuff going on into the election. And so uh so you know, it could be it could I think it's reasonable to assume that stocks will have a hiccup at some point, you know, between now and the election. But uh but being generally bullish, I think those are good times to buy stocks.

SPEAKER_01 17:20

Okay, so tech and semiconductors, they've been, you know, the dominant story. Membership companies have seen triple digit prices and increases and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index just posted its best quarter on record. At what point does the semiconductor trade become crowded enough that the risk profile completely changes?

SPEAKER_03 17:42

I don't know. The risk profile of the semiconductor index has changed much. It's always been very volatile. It's always been one of the most volatile parts of the uh of the S P 500 and of the global stock market. You know, this has been an area where there have been booms and busts, and the booms and busts are very pronounced. It's a high-tech commodity at some point, and uh you can you can overproduce GPUs and CPUs just like you can overproduce copper and oil and any other commodity. Uh, you know, it takes a lot, it takes, you know, a little maybe a different skill set to manufacture it versus buying it out of the ground. But um, but it but it's you know it it can be a commodity at some point. Uh so I think investors need to need to recognize that. Right, I agree. You know, beyond semiconductors, there's so many opportunities uh and so many other so many other great companies that are doing great things that you don't have to just you don't have to just be in semiconductors to have to make money.

SPEAKER_01 18:49

Well, let's talk about some of the boring things that typically are boring, because power and utilities are the sleeper store, right? I mean extremely well. Industrial companies are reporting 300% earnings growth in power-related businesses driven by data center electricity demand. Is this a structural shift in how utilities are valued or a cyclical trade that reverses when data center construction slows down?

SPEAKER_03 19:15

You know, utilities really haven't done that much. They're one of the lagging uh sectors of the SP 500 through the first six months of the year, only up seven and a half percent. Um uh that that being said, hey, seven and a half percent uh plus uh the three or four percent dividend, you know, nothing to nothing to shake a stick at, right? Like that's that's great. I'll take 10, 10 to 11 percent in a in in a in a utility. Um uh, you know, like you talked about industrials. We think that industrials related to the AI story are still things where, you know, we're gonna be building data centers. The data center build-out is a longer-term thing that requires permitting and requires uh all kinds of other longer dated things to happen. Um uh and so that story can continue for a while, and those companies can continue to be profitable uh and and generate cash flow. And also, you know, uh there we'll get back to the war, and um, there's two wars going on. There's a war in Ukraine, there's a war in Iran, and we think that uh industrials in the defense sector are also going to be in high demand.

SPEAKER_01 20:29

Well, energy pullback from its conflict-driven peak. So the case for oil in the second half rests on peace negotiations progressing and supply somewhat normalizing. What's what's your read on energy as an investment for the rest of the year? And what is the scenario where a surprise is to the upside again?

SPEAKER_03 20:50

Yeah, I think our thesis in energy is that oil is you know probably not at the $55 to $60 level, but is probably in the $75 to $80 level uh for for the foreseeable future. What does that mean? It means we've already seen rig counts start to go up. So companies are responding, they're producing more oil at a higher price. Right. If you if you produce more at a higher price, theoretically, your your profits should go up. That means there's more cash to distribute to shareholders. Maybe the price of the stock goes up, maybe it doesn't. Um but but what we what we look at there is it's a volatility dampener, right? If we have this barbell in our portfolios where we have, like we talked about, the semiconductors, which yes, a lot of growth, but a lot of volatility. And we can offset that maybe with owning energy companies that maybe not a lot of growth, but a lot less volatility. And um, and uh and so when one goes it's it's It's it's been incredible to watch. As one goes up, the other one sort of stays here. As one goes down, that's when this one responds positively the other direction. And so when we talk about sort of portfolio construction, that's that's how we're approaching sort of dealing with risk in the second half.

SPEAKER_01 22:19

Healthcare and biotech have largely been left behind in 2026. So that historically creates an interesting setup. Is there a rotation thesis here, or is there underperformance a reflection of something more structural that I'm not aware of?

SPEAKER_03 22:36

Yeah, healthcare was uh, you know, one of the best performing funds for I don't know how long was the Vanguard Healthcare Fund.

SPEAKER_01 22:45

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03 22:45

Yeah. Um, and when we saw it in client portfolios, we said that was a great choice. Uh for a long, long time, healthcare was the sector to be in. I think a lot of that changed with Obamacare and and uh and some of the um some of the uh the changes to the to the healthcare system and the way the healthcare system is incentivized and taxed. I think, you know, one of the things that we talked about maybe last year and the year before that was, you know, at some point the federal government is going to try and get a hold of of uh try to get a hold of the the cost curve in healthcare for Medicare and Medicaid. That's gonna mean that you know there's gonna be a crackdown on on uh health insurance plans, on um on uh medical devices and all that kind of stuff. And uh I think just sort of the the healthcare area hasn't uh hasn't really recovered from that or is in a structurally different place. Um, you know, biotechs are very hard to deal with. Um uh, you know, it's it's almost like a crapshoot. And so we generally, you know, I don't have that kind of expertise. I don't have a team that has that kind of expertise. Right. You know, I'm very bullish on on that in general because AI is going to enable firms to go in and mine all kinds of data and come up with new drugs. I don't think it's an issue that we won't have new drugs or that the health of America and the and the world won't get better. I think it's just a hard place to invest and make money uh because because um it's just really hard to pick winners. That being said, um, you know, there are some winners that we think will continue to win around weight loss, uh, and uh and then companies that are using AI where we can identify that they are using AI to their benefit to cut costs, uh, though those are going to be areas in healthcare that uh that uh that we think are gonna be profitable for investors.

SPEAKER_01 24:45

Yeah, makes total sense. Let's uh move into my favorite topic, bonds. So with rates elevated, potentially moving higher, Fed reducing its balance sheet over time, where should someone who holds fixed income be positioning going in the back half of this year?

SPEAKER_03 25:02

You know, uh the 10-year as we sit here is about 4.6%. The 30-year bond is about 5%. Um, you know, so we've had a backup in yields as we predicted. I don't want to say it's time to sort of lengthen duration. Maybe from a tactical standpoint, you know, it it might be exciting here and there. Maybe, maybe the price of oil comes down, maybe we get some some readings on on inflation like we got in uh in uh in the month of May here. Right. Uh or I guess June PPI was was low, June CPI was low. Uh and uh but but we didn't see the sort of the the long end of the bond bond curve you know do much around that. Um so the way that I would think about that potentially is if we're if we're range bound, um maybe mortgage bonds are are a better way to play that uh rather than uh you know coupons. Um it's an area that we've um we've generally not not been uh not been active in in the past, but uh but uh for for lots of mathematical reasons, uh mortgage bonds in an era, in a in an in a time when interest rates are going to be you know relatively in a tight band can make some sense. That being said, we think that the general trajectory of interest rates is higher. And so we want to be short duration, keep it for dry, you know, keep our bond portfolios for dry powder for when you know stocks go on sale.

SPEAKER_01 26:36

My bonds are treasury money markets, right? So there we go. Nah, I'm just kidding. I I let Gary tell me where to put my bond money, which is usually treasury money markets, so he doesn't have to hear me complain about it. But anyway, I digress Wade. Yeah. So we talk about these things, forecasts matter. I get it, right? But what really matters is what it means for the people listening. So are long-term investors wondering whether to stay the course? Um, are they should they be making changes? You know, and business owners, they're deciding whether now is the time to invest, acquire property, or hire. And some have been sitting on way too much cash, waiting for the market to have just the right moment where they can jump back in. So, Gary, for the long-term investor who is up between, I don't know, 8-15% on the year so far, depending on their allocation, is this the moment to rebalance, take some chips off a table, or hold exactly where they are?

SPEAKER_03 27:35

No, I think I think for the long-term investor, rebalancing periodically is something that uh that you just you just do. That's part of prudent investment management. Uh, it's something that we do for our clients every day. For the clients who have been in cash and like you said, been in cash for far too long, uh, I think, you know, given that I think that volatility is gonna be increasing over the next, you know, over the first part of the the the second half of the year, I think dollar cost averaging probably makes more sense if you're gonna get into the market. But um the best the best time to buy stocks is when you have cash. Um because over, you know, over every you know, three year, five year, ten year, fifteen year period, you generally make make money in stocks. And so uh so um you know the best time to buy stocks is when you have cash. For business owners who are making decisions, I think it's crucial to go and look at your assumptions, look at your cost of capital. Right. And if you if you think that the the project that you're looking at investing in has a rate of return greater than the cost of capital, it's probably worth doing.

SPEAKER_01 28:48

Let's stay with the business owner, like you have capital to deploy right now. So because and a lot of my clients do, right? So what does the second half economic actually say about that decision? Is the cost of waiting higher than the cost of acting in an environment? Or is it does the real uncertainty around rates just make you sit still for a while?

SPEAKER_03 29:09

You know, I don't think there's a lot of uncertainty about rates, frankly. I think uh I I wouldn't I wouldn't anticipate that rates are gonna drop much if they do. So waiting for lower rates is you're gonna be waiting for a quarter point, maybe, maybe waiting for a half a point over the next year. Uh that, you know, that that you know, you're gonna lose more to inflation and the cost of the things you're trying to buy than you will to how much you're gonna make up an interest rate.

SPEAKER_01 29:41

We just had a similar conversation about you know, real estate can sometimes, especially if you're in the STR market, you can wait and wait and lose opportunity, right? When it's time, and I feel like I feel the same way about a lot of the small business owners that we're talking to right now.

SPEAKER_03 29:57

I think the other thing to remember is that during the pandemic, there was a wave of you know, five-year, seven-year loans that were that were made. And those are going to start coming up for uh for renewal um or refinancing. So if you're a small business owner and you're thinking about doing something with a with new money, don't forget that there's gonna be a lot of pressure at banks uh going on. And so, you know, getting that money today, getting it sh assured and and lined up is is it may take longer than you than you expect. And uh and and the and uh and so you probably want to get that done sooner rather than later.

SPEAKER_01 30:42

I I agree. I've seen in the last 90 days especially, as much as two-point shifts, you know. So that's a that's a big cash flow difference, right? When you're when you're having a look at it from that standpoint. And I guess for me, speaking of cash, you know, uh how I am, I I like treasury money markets better than I do bonds for the most part, even though I know it's the same, you know what I mean, on a short-term yield curve. I feel safe. We're in Virginia, helps out a little bit. So at what point does sitting in cash start to cost you something in a market like this that could have meaningful upside? How do you how do you have that conversation with someone who's been on the sideline for over a year now? You, how do you have that conversation?

SPEAKER_03 31:25

I tell them to think about their cash uh not as you know um some something that they've just got there. It's a useful asset. And so if they have a use for that cash that is near term, uh, you know, that it's it's three, it's a three-month reserve, or they're gonna buy a boat, or they're gonna buy a house, or they gotta put, you know, the kids, kids through private school or whatever it is. Uh, they have a relative who has medical issues that they're they they they know they need the money for, uh, you know, that's fine. It should be in cash. That shouldn't be subject to market fluctuation. But other than that, um, sitting on cash for fear purposes is is not a smart thing to do. And instead of sitting in it because you don't want to put it all in the stock market, that's a time to have a conversation about what your risk tolerance is. Right. And and an honest conversation about your risk tolerance. And we can find a way to be, you know, 50-50, 70-30, 80-20. We don't have to be a hundred percent in stocks with the rest of that money, but but it's sitting in cash and not in corporate bonds or other other instruments that could earn earn more, even municipal bonds, right? Um, you know, at tax advantage yields of five and six percent uh versus your money market at three, um, you know, that money adds up over time. And so the compounding error means that, you know, five to ten years down the road, you know, that vacation house may be unattainable, uh, you know, that that you that you want. Uh you may not be able to give as much to the charities you wanted to give to.

SPEAKER_01 33:14

Um, so uh I think that's the way that we have that conversation for sure. Let's bring this thing home. You know, we covered the halftime scorecard, the variables that decide second half and what the specific sector opportunities are, what it means for all the people making real financial decisions right now. As always, I have three really tough questions for you. These this is pretty tough, but you know, you're gonna have to get out on a limb here. What is the single most important thing that matters right now for how investors should be thinking today?

SPEAKER_03 33:47

I think the single most important thing is can I handle the amount of volatility that is potentially coming down the road? Am I gonna freak out if stocks, if my stock portfolio is down 20% in the month of August? Yep. I'm not saying it's gonna happen, but it could.

unknown 34:07

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 34:08

I would yeah, I would agree. Um I'll just leave it at that. So uh I w I want to ask the next question before I broaden that. What are you watching most closely over the next six months that every person in this audience should have on their radar screen right now?

SPEAKER_03 34:24

I think every person in this audience should have the election on their radar screen. Um I don't think that they need to uh to freak out about it, but just be cognizant of it that there's going to be more noise, there's going to be more headlines, and so uh so when those are out there, they're not surprised by it, they're not shocked by it, and they don't change their long-term thinking based upon short-term market fluctuations around the election coming up.

SPEAKER_01 34:55

Yeah. Tone out the noise or stick to it. So last question. What's the one mistake you most want our listeners to avoid between now and December 31st that doesn't have anything to do with noise?

SPEAKER_03 35:09

Yeah, I think the one thing to avoid is the hot IPO. Um, I I I know that there's a lot of temptation to get in on the ground floor, but you know, like we talked about in our IPO uh episode a few episodes ago, there's gonna be plenty of time for you to buy that company if it's gonna succeed. And, you know, there are people who bought Apple and were in the wilderness for 10 years while Apple did nothing but sort of go down uh before making its historic run where everybody made a ton of money in Apple. Uh that either the same thing, just you don't have to be there on day one to make money.

unknown 35:55

Yep.

SPEAKER_01 35:56

So here's what I think I heard, and you correct me if I'm wrong before we close this finishes out. Interest rates probably not gonna see a rate decrease in the very near future. Um I heard the market is probably a pretty good place to stay in, diversified, continue to your your strategic portfolio. And but most importantly, I heard there's a lot of opportunity that's different than it was maybe a year ago, different sectors and things that like every, you know, look at the opportunity when something goes bad, look for the opportunity, right? So I'm I'm I'm very excited about this. I'm I'm I think that uh I see uh I see maybe more opportunity than I thought having this discussion with you right now.

SPEAKER_03 36:44

Yeah, I think there's there's always a reason to be pessimistic, right? There's always that wall of worry that's out there. And uh bears and bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered, all that kind of stuff. But over time, bulls make more money than bears. And so prudent, prudent investing with an eye towards risk management. Uh we're gonna we're gonna do good, we're gonna be able to accomplish our financial goals in the future. Uh so stay the course.

SPEAKER_01 37:12

Uh you know, halftime reports are useful. They they tell us the score, they tell you, you know, what's working and what's not, and they give you a chance to adjust before the game's over. But the investor who comes out ahead in the second half, probably not necessarily be the ones who correctly predict what the Fed does in September. They won't be the ones who who think they know. More than likely, they'll have a plan. They'll stay disciplined and they'll not allow the noise and the headlines to change it, right? The uncertainty Gary just discussed today is real, but uncertainty is not the same as danger. And a complicated market is not necessarily a broken market. In fact, Gary just showed us a bunch of opportunities that we can take advantage of over the next six months. If today's conversation raised questions concerning your portfolio, your financial plan, our team at Concord Wealth Partners is here to help. Gary, fantastic conversation as always. Thanks, Wade. Let's make some money in the second half. Let's do it. And thank you guys for listening. If you've enjoyed today's conversation, please like the episode and share it with a friend or a colleague. You may also find it helpful. That is exactly what we call this built to last.

Announcer 38:25

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