[All-Gorge] ⚡ The Nine-Gigawatt Gap - EFSEC June 2026

This month the Washington State Energy Facility Site Evaluation Council — EFSEC, the agency that permits the Gorge's biggest energy projects — got a sobering look at the region's power math: a forecast that the Northwest could fall about nine gigawatts short by 2030. We also cover a brush fire at a Gorge-area solar farm, two ownership transfers headed for a July vote, and a finalized tribal-consultation policy.

In This Episode

• Why a regional study says the Northwest has to build energy at a pace it hasn't seen in 25 years
• A May 28 brush fire at Ostrea Solar, and why it's a land-management story, not a solar story
• Columbia Solar and Goose Prairie Solar ownership transfers head to a July decision
• Carriger Solar's court fight may pause for settlement talks with the Yakama Nation
• Two oil-loss events at the Columbia Generating Station nuclear plant
• A new Commerce councilmember, a finalized tribal-consultation policy, and budget clouds

Resources & Links

• Read the full written Dispatch at skamaniadispatch.com
• EFSEC project pages and agendas: efsec.wa.gov
• The E3 / Public Generating Pool resource-adequacy study: https://ethree.com/ra-pnw
• The U.S. Department of Energy's primer on wildfire and solar farms: energy.gov/femp

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Welcome back to the Open Gorge Podcast, coming at you this week with another All Gorge briefing. Today we're going one level up from City Hall, the State Council that decides where the Gorge's biggest energy projects are getting built. It's called FSEC, the Energy Facility Site Evaluation Council. And at its June meeting, the council heard a number that's worth all of us sitting with. So here it is. A new regional study says that the Pacific Northwest could be about 9 gigawatts short of reliable power by the year 2030. For those of you counting, that's just a couple years from now. And if you look further out to 2035, that gap grows to somewhere between 14 and 18 gigawatts. Now, 9 gigawatts is an abstract number, so let's make it real. The study's lead author, a senior partner at the firm E3 named Arne Olson, put it this way 9 gigawatts is roughly as much power as the entire state of Oregon draws at once. Not energy used up over a year, we're talking about how much electricity the whole state is pulling in a single moment. So where does a huge gap like that come from? Two things at once. We're all using a lot more electricity, electric cars, heat pumps, and a bit of data center growth. But at the same time, some of our older, always-on power plants are also retiring. So why does this keep people up at night? Because the gap doesn't show up on an average Tuesday. It usually shows up in the worst week of winter, a deep cold snap, in a year when rivers are low, and the dams can't keep up. That's right when your heat pump is going to be working the hardest. The region got a taste of that in January 2024. A cold snap pushed the system to its limits, and we got through it partly by importing power from our neighbors. But when the whole West is going to be frozen at the same time, that help may not be there. Fall short, and you're looking at higher electricity bills. And the worst case, the lights going out when it's dangerously cold. So here's the part that matters for the gorge. Closing that gap will mean building a lot. Olson's modeling points to something like 600 new utility scale energy projects over the next 20 years. He told the council, and I'm quoting, it's just a pace that we're not used to operating at in the Pacific Northwest. At the high end, he said, all that building could touch as much as 14% of the land area of Washington state. That's the backdrop behind almost every project fight you've heard us cover over these last few months. The transmission line through the gorge, the solar farms out east, there's just going to be a lot more of it, especially if we're trying to prioritize renewables and decarbonize our grid rather than just constantly approving new gas or coal plants. One council member, Brian Rabaric, offered a useful caution. Those big scary numbers, they're a worst case scenario. A cold snap, a dry year, hitting all at once. So we're going to try to meter our alarms and hold some nuance at the same time while trying to look ahead. So let's look at these active projects themselves and one that hit close to home. Out at Australias Solar Facility, there was a brush fire on May 28th. According to the developer's report to the council, a piece of equipment came loose, pinched a cable, and a spark caught the dry brush. It burned roughly 40 acres, but here's the headline. Nobody was hurt, thankfully. The local fire district was knocked down, and the array is already back online. Now I want to be careful here because it's easy to spin a story like this the wrong way. A brush fire at a solar farm isn't really a knock against solar in particular, it's the reality of putting any big energy project, solar, wind, batteries, or any other industrial use really, out in dry open grassland that's already fire country. It comes with a job to be responsible about that risk and take care of it when it happens. Keep the grass cut, keep defensible space clear, and plan ahead with local firefighters. At Australia, that system worked exactly like it's supposed to. We've put a link in the show notes, and the Department of Energy has a plain language primer if you want to read more. A couple of quicker project notes, two solar projects, Columbia Solar and Goose Prairie Solar, are changing owners. The council held public hearings on both, so expect a formal vote in July, and Carriger Solar, over in Clickitac County, that one's been in court with the Yakima Nation. The new development? Two sides may hit pause and try to settle. Now to a story from the Columbia Generating Station, the nuclear plant up at Hanford. Energy Northwest reported two separate events where turbine oil leaked towards the river. The first leak, last year, was an estimated 380 to 463 gallons. The second this February was much smaller, under six gallons. In both cases, the water tests came back below the level instruments can even detect. A council member made a fair point. The monitoring upgrades they put in after the first event seem to have caught in the second one much faster. Again, these are the kinds of systems we want to see in place and hope that they work as expected. And finally, the council itself. There's a new face at the table. Chair Kurt Beckett welcomed Aaron Peterson as the new permanent commerce department council member, a longtime energy policy hand who's also spent a decade developing wind and solar. The council also finalized something it's been working on since January, a form of policy for how it consults with tribal governments. Staffer Lisa McLean called it a living document, and one council member Blake Nelson pushed to tighten the language to make the rules in his words crystal clear. We can't argue with the benefits of that. One cloud on the horizon, money. Interim director Dave Walker told the council the governor's office has flagged possible budget cuts for the rest of the two-year cycle. As Walker put it, it's really hard to say at this point how the budget is going to shake out. So, what's next? Watch July. The council is expected to vote on those two ownership transfers. There's a first of its kind, full council consultation with the Yakimination set for July 7th, and a long pause project, Badger Mountain Solar, may finally get a decision. The full written rundown of all of these projects and the many decisions on the table with every figure and link, head over to SchemaniaDispatch.com. You've been listening to a production of opengorge.org, home of the Schemania Dispatch, and the Click of Taddler. We believe that informed communities are stronger communities. To support our work and stay up to date on everything happening in the gorge, head over to schemania dispatch.com to sign up for our newsletters. You can also find us on Facebook at Facebook.comslash open gorge to join the conversation and share your thoughts on today's episode. Thanks for tuning in. Try to stay cool, and we'll talk to you next time.