Ceasefire Collapse Explained | Trump vs Obama Deal, Iran & What Happens Next

Less than 24 hours.

That’s how long the so-called ceasefire lasted.

In Episode 2 of Fearless Politics, Dr. Avis breaks down the rapid collapse of the Iran ceasefire deal, what was actually agreed upon, and why everything is already falling apart.

From conflicting narratives to violations on the ground, this episode cuts through the noise to explain what’s really happening—and what it means moving forward.

This is not just about a deal.
 This is about leverage, power, and consequences.

In this episode:

• What was included in the Iran ceasefire agreement
• The three key violations already reported
• Why the Strait of Hormuz remains a central pressure point
• How political pressure and public backlash shaped the deal
• A direct comparison: Trump’s deal vs the Obama agreement
• What this means for global stability, energy markets, and U.S. influence

This situation is evolving fast—and the implications are far from over.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

You remember how Trump said he ripped up the Obama agreement. And, you know, this is much better than what we had under Obama. How many know what we had under Obama? You want to know what we had under Obama? Hmm. I think it's very interesting because we tend to forget. And I think we need to remember what the Obama deal was and then kind of compare that to what Trump has gotten us. In a political world that is defined by unending chaos, crisis, and unprecedented action, politics as usual is no longer an option. Instead, this is a moment that requires bold, fearless, and fierce truth telling. And that's exactly what you'll find right here on Fearless Politics. I'm your host, Dr. Avis. Buckle up, it's time to be fearless. Grand opening, grand closing. Less than 24 hours in. It seems the ceasefire deal is in fact ceasing. So I want to spend some time today just breaking that down. What was the deal? Why is it breaking down? What can we expect next? We're going to get into the details right now on this episode of Fearless Politics. So let's get into it. So where are we right now with this ceasefire deal? Let me just say this. Thank goodness Taco came to a senses and went ahead and tacoed out, right? Went ahead and punked out as we suspected that he would. But given the fact that he's devil incarnate, you can't really tell for sure, with the extreme, just extreme unprecedential and just evil language about ending an entire civilization. So when that was pulled back, it was definitely uh with a sigh of relief, I'm sure, by everyone, not only directly involved with that, but by all of us who care about humanity and about not enacting war crimes on folks, right? However, today, less than 24 hours in this quote-unquote ceasefire deal, it's backfiring, it seems. And it's backfiring, according to the Iranians, based on the fact that three core components of the deal have already been violated. So I'm going to break that down and then move right on from there. So let's just be real. Trump had painted himself into a corner. He had talked all that smack. He could see what the polls were looking like, he could see what was happening to the gas prices. He heard the response to his evil statement that sounded as if he was potentially threatening a nuclear bomb when you're talking about eradicating an entire civilization. Okay. And he could see that even other Republicans or far right wing folk who in the past had been riding with them throughout all his other ridiculousness, a lot of them were saying, oh, hell no, you have lost it. Somebody invoked the 25th. And I think when he started hearing so many people talking about invoking the 25th, the final total came to over 70 politicians, mostly Democrats, who came out publicly in favor of the 25th. But likely even more critical to him were people like the Alex Joneses of the world. Even that shit crazy Alex Jones was saying, let's 25th is ass. While people like Candace Owens, people like even Tucker Carlson was alluding to it, right? People on that side of the political spectrum, too, were alluding to or directly calling for the 25th. And so he could tell that he had gone way too far and he was trying to figure out a way to walk it back. Now, let me just put this into context. Already on the table, there were two potential options that the parties could agree to with regards to starting these talks. Americans had put forth a 15-point plan that the Iranians had dismissed outright. That's not new. That had already been out there and they dismissed it outright. The Iranians had put out a 10-point plan previously as well. All right. According to both Iranians and Pakistanis, who were actually handling the negotiations, all parties agreed to go forward with starting negotiations with the 10-point plan that the Iranians had put forth. So that means right there at the front, Donnie Bloy capitulated and decided to play ball with the Iranians versus forcing them to play ball with the 15-point plan that he had put forth. And I'm not surprised to see that because he's the one that's desperate. He's not in the power position. The Iranians had control of the straits. And that's really where he was particularly hurting economically and politically, he was really in a horrible position because clearly we're in a worse position with that than we were for years. There had not been a problem with the Strait of Hermuse. Both were going in and out of there, not paying any tolls, nothing. Okay. Then all of a sudden he comes in, bucks it up, and then throws a tipper tantrum because none of the NATO allies would help get him out of the own mess that he created. But that's neither here nor there. Because at this point, the idea was to start with a ceasefire and to start negotiations based on the 10-point plan that the Iranians put forth. And so so that we all are on the same page and know what we're talking about here, let me break down for you what was in that 10-point plan. All right. Number one, guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again. Like they had gotten tired, tired, okay, of having quote-unquote negotiations with Israel and America. And while they're at the negotiating table, they are being attacked. That had happened to them not once, but twice. And so number one on their list was guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again. Number two on their list, permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire. All right. They really wanted to work towards a permanent end of the war, not perennial short-term ceasefires. Number three, and this one, remember this one because it's a key. Key one right here. End to Israeli attacks on Lebanon. All right. That was part of the 10-point agreement that there would be an end to Israeli strikes in Lebanon. All right. Number four, lifting all U.S. sanctions on Iran. Number five, into all regional fighting against Iranian allies. Number six, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hamous in exchange for all of those things that I just mentioned, right? Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again, permanent into the war, not just to ceasefire, into Israeli strikes in Lebanon, lifting all U.S. sanctions on Iran into all regional fighting against Iranian allies. In exchange for all of that, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hermuz. Okay? This was part of this 10-point agreement, right? Next, Iran would impose a$2 million fee per ship transiting the Humuz. So that means every ship that is to go through the strait moving forward would pay a toll of$2 million to get through the strait. Iran would split those fees with Oman, which was the key negotiator that's facilitating the process to come together for, in essence, a peace plan moving forward. Number nine, Iran would establish rules for safe passage through Hermuz. You see how they are positioning themselves as having sole authority over the straits, right? They would open it, they would establish rules for safe passage, and they would get paid$2 million per ship, essentially as a toll to be able to get through the straits. And then finally, 10, Iran would use Hermu's fees for reconstruction instead of reparation. So, in other words, they were saying that they wanted to use the money collected through those tolls in order to help rebuild their country, given all of the damage that it has sustained over the course of this war. So this is what led to the ceasefire. All right. Now I know today you're probably hearing um messaging out of the White House saying that they didn't agree to this, that it came as a result of their 15-point plan. Well, let me just say two sources. The neutral party that is arranging the peace talks, say that's a lie, that actually he agreed to the 10 points. And Iran is saying he agreed to the 10 points. Those two are saying the same thing. And then the US is over here saying something completely different. And if you ask me who I believe, given the history, given the mountain of lies that we know Donald Trump has been saying from day one, I'm gonna go with the two countries that are saying the same thing. Because one of those two is a neutral party. All right. So all evidence is that the administration is lying about that. Iran never even took seriously the 15-point plan that Americans provided. Instead, they are basing their conversations on the 10-point plan that Iran provided. All right, so now we've gone through that. So they might be wondering, though, what the hell could have happened? What the hell is happening already? That the ceasefire is likely ceasing. Okay, what is happening, such as it's grand opening, grand closing, there are problems here already. And here's what's happened. According to the speaker of the Iranian parliament, he was on X earlier today, in which he said there are three key breaches of the country's 10-point framework. Number one, there have already been violations, including the failure to begin a ceasefire in Lebanon. It's been widely reported that Israel has been heavily bombing Lebanon all day long. That's interesting. Isn't that interesting? It appears as if the party that got us into this mess in the first place is the party that's messing this up in terms of the ceasefire. Interesting. That's number one. Number two, he also reported an incursion of hostile drones into Iranian airspace. And thirdly, apparently there has been some discussion today, and you may have heard even the Trump administration talking about they're not going to have access to their uranium. And Iran is saying the devil is a lie, okay? They are denying Iran's right to uranium enrichment. Iran is saying this is a violation of our agreement. We never agreed to no longer have access to uranium enrichment. And therefore, guess what we're doing? We're closing the straight the hell back up. So as I come to you today, the strait is closed. Grand opening, grand closing, it is closed once again. And ish going through there because Iran has identified three different areas that they are saying the agreement that was reached in order to have the ceasefire and the opening of the strait has not, in fact, been honored. So this is where we are with that today. So let's talk about what this deal looks like. Is it renting? Is it losing for the United States? And I would just say this you may have seen Heggsith earlier today on TV like a rooster, primping and talking about how they are just they just destroyed Iran and it's a it's a victory, it's an overwhelming victory, and they'll never be able to produce nuclear weapons again. Do not fall for the okie doke. All right. Yes, there has been substantial strikes in that country, over 13,000 strikes. But guess what? This country absorbed 13,000 strikes and it's still there. And it's still standing, and apparently it still has the ability to close the straits. They just like how you like me now. We've taken your and we're still controlling the straits. So now what? And here's what's really interesting to me just to get to the to the heart of the deal, all of this has gone on. Billions of dollars, hundreds of billions of dollars spent already. And I am pulling that figure not just from the numbers that we know already, but also the fact that at least 13 U.S. bases have been hit in that region during the war. So we're not just talking about the cost of the machinery that's been damaged or destroyed over the course of the past month. We're not just talking about the cost of all of the bombs and all of the various different tools that they have used in the commission of this war. We're also talking about the fact that the bases that were strategically placed all around that region have been hit. I mean, if you're wondering why in the world would Iran just go bonkers, bombing all of its neighbors, bombing all of these other countries around them for no reason. Let me tell you, it won't for no reason. They had a reason. They were targeting areas that had American troops there because there were American bases there. And a lot of those bases were in fact evacuated ahead of time, but those troops were still then put into civilian hotels. Which one might even make the argument that might sound familiar to you, that could someone charge America, if they're doing that, with using human shields for their army? Could one make that allegation? I don't know. But I will at least say this that is what happened. And so as a result of that, you had Iran not only hitting and destroying those bases, you also have probably heard about different hotels in that region being hit. They weren't just being hit randomly. This is a war. And I have to say, we don't really know. I have to be perfectly honest with you. I do not believe the numbers that we are being told about the number of U.S. troops that have been injured or even killed over the course of the past month, more than a month now. It is hard for me to believe that over five weeks, basically, that the only significant damage that the US received was in the first week of the war. I find that extremely hard to believe, but that's what they're telling us. Either way, just know that's not only cost us American lives and catastrophic injuries for the hundreds that at least they admit to, all right. But also think about strategically how does this hurt the US interest in that region for generations to come? Because if I'm Dubai, I'm thinking twice about allowing the U.S. to put another base in my country. If I'm Saudi Arabia, I'm thinking twice. If I'm Kuwait, I'm thinking twice. And the reason why I'm thinking twice now is because you told me if I allow you to put your base here, you're gonna protect me. Because I don't know, Iran might go crazy and they might try to get us, all right? And you told me that you could protect us. And then when you start something and stuff starts popping off, not only are you not protecting us, you're messing with our money. Oil production has been completely undermined for weeks because of this. Our infrastructure has been targeted because of this. We're sitting here trying to figure out how we can protect ourselves in some way thinking about us. Not only that, but you made us a target specifically because you're here. And so, because of this situation, what do I have to gain then by having you in our country? Why would I even let you come back? Think about the long-term geopolitical impasse of this. So that's that. But I think it's important to look at if we've gone through all this, spending billions and billions of dollars, right? Spending billions of dollars in order to put this war on for shifting reasons. What do we get as a result? What is the end game here? And is it better than what was the case under Obama? You remember how Trump said he ripped up the Obama agreement, and you know, this is much better than what we had under Obama. How many of you know what we had under Obama? You want to know what we had under Obama? Hmm. I think it's it's very interesting because we tend to forget. And I think we need to remember what the Obama deal was and then kind of compare that to what Trump has gotten us, right? So let's do it. Under the Obama deal, the Strait of Hermuz was open for free. Better off than we are right now. Number two, Iran agreed to limit its uranium enrichment. They openly agreed to limit its uranium enrichment. Number three, Iran agrees to make no more nuclear weapons.

SPEAKER_01 20:16

Interesting. Interesting.

SPEAKER_00 20:23

If Trump hadn't torn up this agreement in his first administration, there would be no need for any of this right now because they claimed that one of the main reasons why they wanted to do it was to protect them from making a nuclear weapon. And under the Obama agreement, they had already agreed to not make nuclear weapons. And not only did they agree to not make nuclear weapons, but under the Obama agreement, Iran allowed international inspectors to ensure that they were compliant. So it's not even like we just had to take their word for it. They agreed to have international inspectors come in regularly to make sure that they were not pursuing a nuclear bomb under the Obama agreement. And finally, under Obama's agreement, inspectors had to confirm Iran's full compliance so that there would not be any other actions taken. This agreement cost us zero dollars. This agreement was developed completely via diplomatic means. That means nobody died. That means nobody suffered catastrophic injuries. That means two billion dollars weren't spent willy nilly on a daily basis in a war that didn't have to happen. All of that was in place. Under the Obama agreement. Now let's compare where we are right now with Trump's ceasefire. Under Trump's ceasefire, the Strait of Hamoo's closed. And it will only open for two million dollars per ship. When and if they choose to open it again, because right now they're saying this issue's closed. Ain't no room at the end. We ain't letting you in. So even if they do decide to open it, it's gonna cost two million dollars per ship when it was open and free under Obama. Number one. Number two, under Trump's agreement, Iran makes no guarantee of limit on uranium enrichment. Boom. Under Trump's agreement, because he knows he wanted to get the hell out of there and he was willing to agree to anything to get that damn straight open. Under his agreement, no guarantee of limit on uranium enrichment. Next, under Trump's agreement, Iran makes no guarantee of no nuclear weapons. Interesting, ain't it? That's one of the main reasons why he claims we went into war to stop them from getting nuclear weapons.

SPEAKER_01 23:33

Oh we gotta stop them from getting nuclear weapons.

SPEAKER_00 23:40

But one of the reasons why there was for a moment a ceasefire, I guess it's a ceasefire, it's very fragile. Doesn't seem to be working right now, but one of the reasons why it was there in the first place because Trump actually agreed that Iran would not need to make a guarantee of having no nuclear weapons. And finally, under Trump's agreement, Iran makes no guarantee to allow international inspectors. Let me ask you which one is better? Which one is better? It is absolutely clear that all of the progress that Obama made with the agreement that he had with the Iranians not only was lost under these shenanigans, we're in negative territory now. Because now, if they decide to ever open up the straits again, it's gonna cost$2 million per ship through there. They've now refused to agree to not have nuclear weapons. They've now refused to allow international specters. And quite frankly, when Trump keeps bragging about the fact that they did create regime change, yeah, congratulations, you did create change to a new Khomeini who, according to our own intelligence agencies, is more radical than his father was. So you changed them out to a leader that's about 40 years younger than the previous leader and is more radical than the previous leader. Yeah, that's changed. Is it in the direction that you think any oppressed people in that society would have wanted? I don't think so. It's a change in leadership. It is not regime change. These are two very completely different things. And in fact, our intelligence agencies suggest that the father was more reasonable about the issue of nuclear weapons. He was less focused on them having nuclear weapons, which was probably why he was more amenable to the agreement that he made with Obama because it wasn't as important to him as it is to his son. And so now we have someone in power there who is very much in favor of having nuclear weapons. And I would argue, if anything, the past 50 or so days have created a scenario where they probably are more likely than ever to want it. Because if putting myself in their shoes, I'm thinking, hey, we need to have the right to defend ourselves. Hey, we have a neighbor who has nuclear weapons. Hey, we have a neighbor who has demonstrated more than one time that they are willing to attack us. Hey, we have a right to exist because we have someone else, another entity who is coming in, who is not a neighbor, but has joined with our neighbor and has said that they want to completely destroy our civilization. If anything, these actions have probably made the leadership of Iran more intractable when it comes to the issue of having nuclear weapons. Congratulations, Don. You've gone and just completely fucked everything up. Now, I know this is not how it's going to be presented to you by the White House. I know this is not going to be presented to you in this way by the drunk who heads the Department of Defense. But this is the truth. This is reality. This is the truth that they don't want you to know. So here we are in this situation where the ceasefire, less than 24 hours in, appears to be ceasing, and the Straits of Hermuz that supposedly was gonna open has already closed back up. And we don't even know where we're gonna go from here. I do know this. Trump and his administration wants off this merry-go-round. That is for sure. JD Vance is going over there, among others, and they are going to participate in some discussions. But I will say, my measure is going to be is what they come up with at the end of this going to be better than Obama's deal? And if it is not, why the hell were we there? Why do we waste all that money? Waste all those lives? Completely undermine our standing on the world stage, completely jack up relationships, not just with NATO countries, but also with Gulf countries who now know that we either cannot or do not want to protect them if Ish pops off. Therefore, where is the incentive for them to be a safe harbor for any sort of military presence there in the future? And not to mention the fact that this is costing billions upon billions upon billions of dollars that cannot be spent on Americans at home. You can't get the lives back that have been lost, and you can't get the money back that has been spent. Congratulations, Don. You have never found a situation that you can't go into and make worse. And here we go again, continuing that streak. We don't know if we might be here two weeks from now, two months from now, two years from now, wondering what's gonna happen. But we do know who got us into this mess. And we have to work together to get ourselves out. With that said, I'll see you guys next time on Fearless Politics. Take care. Thank you for joining us on today's episode of Fearless Politics. And while you're here, don't forget to subscribe, follow, and leave that five-star rating that you and I both know we deserve. Also, feel free to leave a review so more people can find out about us and become members of the Fearless Politics crew. And finally, if you want to go further down the rabbit hole with us, then be sure to check us out at FearlessPoliticsPodcast.com. Or connect with me personally on Instagram at fearless Dr.Avis. With that said, we'll see you next time. And don't forget, it's time to be fearless. See you soon.