THE TIP SHEET; Championships day 1 preview Ft/ Jack Pilkington & Brad Tyson

Im joined by up and coming trainer Jack Pilkington before his first G1 runner Am I Dreaming goes around in the Inglis Sires on Saturday 

A full G1 and Randwick card preview for tomorrow's championships day 1 with Brad Tyson

IG / jacobtyson__

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:00

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome on a Friday morning to the tip sheet, all the weekend winners. A couple of interviews hopefully coming through in this episode as well. Gonna be doing through this podcast, tie-in all interviews and and all that sort of thing. Horse racing, rugby league, all that stuff right here. Um this is your first episode we're previewed. We're previewing the championships day one at Randwick. Gonna be tipping the card. I've got a couple at Caulfield, not really gonna go through that all that much, though. Our best of the day, staking plans and all the major group ones. I'm joined today by Bradley Tyson, one of the great horse racing minds. I dare say in the country, maybe the southern hemisphere.

SPEAKER_02 0:40

That's one of the great pieces to start off the uh podcast, Jake, but thank you. Um probably a little bit uh little bit behind schedule here, as we've had a few great race meetings already, but still plenty to come, and hopefully we can back some winners.

SPEAKER_01 0:56

Yeah, we'll start off at Ranwick, we're gonna cover the card. Start off with our best of the day anyway. It's soft six at the moment, rain early tomorrow morning predicted. It's only zero to eight mils. I'm expecting probably that soft five to six range. There's wind as well, about a 15 to 25 kilometers, sadly. Not too much to to touch on their rails back in the true. Um start off Bradley, what's your best of the day?

SPEAKER_02 1:22

Look, my best of the day is probably a pretty obvious one. Um will be many people's best of the day, also, I believe. Uh she's alibi. Not too concerned about the draw, but I think the way the race will run, those don't cast her miles, those big handicaps, they always have a generator B. I think she just needs a little bit of room. And we've sort of followed her journey for a while now. And I I believe obviously we're big fans of uh Autumn Blow, but um if she if Autumn Blow wasn't around at the moment, I would say she's another boy, but would be the most exciting horse in the country. So even money. I'm not a genius, but mine is uh put in and get it out of the day.

SPEAKER_01 2:03

Yeah, yeah, certainly right. I think my best of the day, and a horse that needs to win, um you know, in Karuna in the last at Ranwick, three dollar chance there. You know, just a bit longer odds than it was last. This this probably sets up just as well, if not better, for her, I think. Uh Blinkers go on as well, won well battle length and half group three uh in the spring. Uh good good run there with the blinkers on last time. So I think she's gotta win this race. I I thought the same thing with like a treasure of the moment a couple of weeks ago. Different class of horse, but there's this race that just sets up perfectly for her. And if they don't win, they can get in the bin. Well, she's bad after this if she doesn't win. Yeah, she's bad. At a reasonable price, too. Yeah, yeah. You're getting good enough price as well. It's not like she's odds on. So um we'll get into the group ones. We'll start off with them. They're the they're the things that interest interest us. Uh the English size first up, we you know, a couple of the top chances, Stries and Campion d'Etalia coming out of the slipper. There's a couple of different form lines as well coming into this, but if I gave you a hundred dollars to bet on this race, uh, where are you going?

SPEAKER_02 3:11

Yeah, it's a tricky one. Um I think all of our betters all day. Um we'll show we'll show that that we're we're going a little bit wide where we can. Um obviously the two row is going to$1,400 first time. Um she's probably been the best two-year-old all season. Um but how many more times can we go to the world with her? Um look, I I was wrapped with uh Campion D Italia run that flipper was by far the best run, but it had a flashing light on it. So I I I'm probably leaning towards towards that also. I would go 60 to win on Campion d'Italia. Then you probably got it with these size, you know, a lot of these untried at 1400. Um maybe look at some some form outside of that golden flipper form. I think Tornado Valley was was really good behind Paradoxium, I believe, in in the topment. It looked like 1400 would suit if you keep the slippery, so thresholds coming in and the one at at a reasonable price that could be running over the top of them uh with a bit of luck. So 20 that went tornado valley. Um and I think I'll go uh I'd have 10 H away on MY Dreaming. Um horse having a second start, uh again, another one away from that goal to perform. Horse having a second starter at a at a very good price thing, 3541 at the moment was very good in a 1300 meter race. It was a horse for a few weeks ago. A two-year-old going a 1300 first up or first start in a race is i is hard to do under any circumstance. Um it did get a reasonable run in that race, but I noticed probably about the 500 sort of lost its action a little bit and was sort of cluttered up. Um had to go back to the inside again, not an easy thing for a two-year-old to do first start in a race, and was very strong through the line. Not sure how to line that form up being a horse remaiden, but second start in a race at the price. I'm I'm willing to have something each way. He could jump out of the ground second start.

SPEAKER_01 5:11

Yeah, I I didn't mind it when watching his replay earlier. But um I'm gonna open my shoulders up a little bit in this race. I'm just gonna go straight up a hundred on it can't be on detail. It's one of my best of the day today. I originally had it there. Two-year-old factor first time to 1400, or all those sorts of things, sort of um gave me the sort of cold feet. But look, I I think its run on the slipper was was probably the best run in the race. Um flashed home down the outside. I think it'll appreciate 1400. It's relatively fresh compared to you know, a stryzand who's at the top of the market. You know, Stryzand's coming for its seventh race start. Campion d'Italia's fourth up into this, or its fourth race start into this race. I thought it was a really brave win at the start before as well. I sort of wanted to look at it in the slipper because it was wide, overracing a lot of that race and out tufted a couple of you know decent horses. Wall Woven was was in and amongst that finish and um some of those top two-year-olds. So I think he's got plenty of ability.

SPEAKER_02 6:09

I I think you get you're gonna know after a couple hundred metres, aren't you? Maps are getting a lot done. Yeah, barrier three, James on the right thing.

SPEAKER_01 6:16

James McDonald goes on as well. That's obviously a huge tick. Um, there's a lot of there's a lot of things that I look at this horse and just go, it's the one that I want. It's got the class factor, it's in superb form. It sort of I think it should peak for this run. Um, yeah, uh there's a lot of things I like about a Barrier 3, James McDonald. I'm just gonna straight up can't be on Italia, 100 on. I am joined today by a uh young up-and-coming trainer based out at Hawkesbury, a man who's got his first group one runner this weekend in the Syers in just you know, after just getting his training license only a little bit over two years ago. Joined by Jack Pilkington. Today, mate, how are you? Good, good. Yeah. How is the uh the work this morning? What what'd you get done?

SPEAKER_00 7:03

Um, yeah, planning to get around the track. Um, not really a Gallup morning, so nothing too crazy. Um, just had a few that have just come back into the stable, so they're just working away quietly. Um, one breaker that I was doing for Blue Bloods just finished up his breaking in preparation, and uh so then I get in a videographer to do a bit of a sales pitch for them and uh just a few others uh countering around the track that might gallop tomorrow, or uh one of them's racing tomorrow, obviously. So um, yeah, just pretty standard morning. How many have you got in work at the moment? Uh I should try and keep about 12 in at the moment and uh looking to keep around 15 um in a in a couple of months' time, um, get up to that number and then stick around that for a while. So um yeah, just steady growth, just gotta build a team of staff along along with the with the horse growth. But um yeah, as the demand goes up, um, you know, and the stable has success, uh more horses come in. Um so I try and keep it around that amount, but they're not always all my horses. I do quite a lot of breaking in and pre-training for for some other people as well.

SPEAKER_01 8:09

Yeah, and you do a lot of that work yourself as well, like in terms of riding horses and all that, you're very, very hands-on trainer. Um, I I was reading up this morning about uh some of your experiences traveling, you know, all around the world working for some of the best trainers in the business, you know, your Kieran Mars, Chris Wallace, David Hayes, all these sorts of guys. And a guy that uh you mentioned in a quote was South African trainer Justin Snaith, and how his sort of hands-on philosophy really sh really shaped your experience. How has that sort of um gone for you in your first couple of years training horses yourself?

SPEAKER_00 8:43

Yeah, and actually, it stands me in good stead. And your most expensive staff are your riders. Um, so riding myself, um, you know, saves saves me there, but also uh I can have a feel for the horses myself. Uh I love breaking them in, um, love really getting to know their personalities, know what makes them tick. Um, they're so transparent when they're babies, they uh they really you know teach you a lot about their personalities and and what's going to suit them. Um and so I like doing all the breaking in myself. And obviously, then I'd be uh fairly critical of the riders that I would take on. So I want to make sure I take on very good riders um and uh and and all the staff. I want to be you know, very talented staff. Um I suppose because I I probably hold people to a fairly high standard, but I hold myself to a very high standard. I've I've only really worked for a lot of the best trainers around the world and learn how to do things right. And uh um, but yeah, obviously the riding part, you know, being able to w when I only had one horse, I mean I did everything with Alabama State, obviously, from the start. I didn't have any staff until about a year ago. Um and then obviously now I've started to build a bit of a team and uh I've needed them more, but um but uh no, it's been it's been going good and and I and I don't really want to lose that either. I always want to be hands-on for as long as I can um because I really enjoy it. Yeah, and it's certainly working out all right.

SPEAKER_01 10:07

You did mention Alabama State there. I wanted to ask you about that horse. What sort of a journey did did that gelding sort of taking you on and is still sort of taking you on? Brought it for 80,000 at the millions, won over, you know, close to 300,000 in in prize money now, you know, competitive in a couple of midways in town and all that. What what sort of a journey is that horse taking you on as your first um as your first horse in the stable?

SPEAKER_00 10:32

Yeah, he's been awesome. He's obviously been a flag bearer. Um, you know, I I spent more time with him in the early days than any horse or human ever in my life, pretty much, because you've got one animal, that is your whole stable, but you can put loads of time into it. He's really he's it he's like family, but he's not even like you know, like a son. He's more like a brother. I kind of you know look him straight in the eyes, he's like another, he's like an extra brother of mine. Um, and I just I've spent so much time with him, and we know each other so well. Um, and he's he always he showed plenty of talent early. Very big horse, so he was going to take a little bit of time to mature, but great constitution. The fact that I got five runs out of him in his first racing prep as a two-year-old and a win beating older horses um was was pretty, you know, it was a fantastic result. And the owners were really enjoying the journey. And then he came out as a three-year-old and won straight away again. Um, and then he's only been running on Saturdays since, and that's where he can really raise the flag for my stable. You know, all of the races he runs in are Saturday Metropolitan Stables. It kind of keeps keeps me in the headlines a bit, um, especially when he's winning them. But he was fourth in a group three. He ran in uh uh three group threes in a listed race. He ran in a$500,000 handicap. Um, and he's just he's been very consistent, uh, very reliable. Three wins, like you say, nearly 300 grand in prize money. Like that's a huge success story. You know, most horses, you can't be any horse that wipes their face in terms of what you pay for it and what they win back, owners that have been in the game for a long time, they'll say that's a good horse. Um, and he's he's well ahead. So uh he's uh yeah, he's been brilliant. He's having a long spell at the moment, but I can't wait for him to come back. Um, I've seen him twice in the last couple of weeks, just gone up to the farm and visiting him. But yeah, I can't wait for him to come back.

SPEAKER_01 12:28

Yeah, well that's what I was gonna say. Is there a sort of time on and when when he's gonna be back? What's the next sort of targets for him?

SPEAKER_00 12:34

Um no particular targets because now he's a gelding, he doesn't necessarily have to aim for you know a certain race to try and improve his profile. Um, we just go in the the handicaps around the right mark, um, you know, so he's not got um, you know, he's around the right sort of weights and things, um, and the right kind of trips, and and just um really let him enjoy his racing. Um look after him plenty, you know, we can have plenty of longevity. He could be racing for years. So by the time he actually comes back racing, it'll might even be um the start of August, in which case he'll be five years old. But you know, we've we've looked after him, we gave him a long holiday now, and and that's with longevity in mind. Um if he comes back in great form and goes and wins a couple more handicaps, he you you could probably see him being around the kind of benchmark that sees him scrape into some big money handicaps at a low weight, um, and that would be great fun too.

SPEAKER_01 13:29

Yeah, just another horse that you got coming through, your first ever group one runner, MI Dreaming Two-year-old Colt had its first start a couple of weeks ago. He had a pretty handy day there at uh Hawk 3 with MI Dreaming and Alpha Zeta. We'll talk about her in a second as well. But um look look looked alright in his first start over 1300. What chances do you do you give him in that race?

SPEAKER_00 13:48

Yeah, obviously he's thrown in the deep end, but yeah, um this was a bit of a plan. It might seem very ambitious, um, but I wanted to get that run into him in time for the sires. He wasn't probably gonna be the kind of horse that was gonna be suited to a golden slipper. Um, you know, he's not your your sort of uh slightly smaller, ready-to-run two-year-old type. He's a he's a big rangey animal, um, covers a lot of ground with his stride, and and the sort of sires and the champagne kind of path is probably gonna suit him more, but always showed lots of talent. Uh, he's always really worked with older horses anyway in his gallops, um, because he needs to have something that you know is is good enough to go with him, really. Um, and he's always showed the right signs that he's gonna be up to a fairly decent level. So, yes, we're throwing him in the deep end. Um if he's running strong through the line, it would be a really good prep run for the champagne. Um, and I know Jason Collett, having ridden him, obviously he's had to stick with Paradoxium, who he rode in the slipper, uh, going into the sires. But I know after he got off him when he won on him, he's he said the the sort of champagne stakes and the JJ Atkins, those kinds of races would be right up his street. So if this ends up looking like a bit of a great prep for him going into them, that's fine. Um, but I I I still think he'll run above his odds. Um, the map isn't that easy. Uh, a lot of the speeds drawn out wide, and then the horses you have in towards the fence are usually not go forward horses, but then you've got Zach Lloyd, James McDonald, um, Zach Perton on those horses. So they're not gonna let everybody have it easy. So um we're probably gonna have to use a little bit of petrol early, but you'll have seen in his debut run he was obviously very professional, but he went to sleep in the middle stages, and that's gonna be important as well.

SPEAKER_01 15:42

Yeah, we looked like he showed a little bit of uh a good bit of gate speed as well early in that race, and then he was just able to take a position where he wanted, look super professional, and then yeah, uh do you think you'll appreciate that that 1400? And obviously, you know, you spoke about the champagne and JJ Atkins' targets. You do you think you'll get out and stretch out over further?

SPEAKER_00 16:00

Yeah, I do. I do. I I think I mean he might be you know, he might even be a mile and a quarter horse next year, and and the benefit of having a horse like him that you believe can stay a little further, which some of the Chapeas artists have shown that they can. Um the competition things out, obviously the Australian breedings you know seen as centred around precocity and speed. So the further you can stay, genuinely, um the higher the level you can sometimes rise to. Um so if we can get him out over a trip, um, which I think will be suitable to him genuinely, then uh then he can probably keep himself at a fairly fairly decent level, and we've got another proper Saturday horse.

SPEAKER_01 16:40

Yep, 100%. Um the other horse that you got running on the weekend on Monday at Rose Hill, Alpha Zita, I thought she was pretty impressive in her first race start, was was wide without cover for a lot of it, and and finished off quite nicely down the outside, probably entitled to finish a little bit closer, even with with the tough run in transit, was only beaten half a length. Um, this time gets gate one. What does that sort of do for your chances in that race?

SPEAKER_00 17:05

Yeah, uh look, it's it's a huge help. Um, her debut was brilliant. Um I asked Jason if she got tired, and he said she actually was more lost because she sort of she was in a battle with the favorite out wide and she beat it off. She he said she wouldn't have seen the two that came up the fence, they were too far across the track. She wouldn't have known she was beat. She was just thought she was in in front, and and you know that was that was a case of doing enough there. She'd beaten half a length. He said if she was drawn in and she was in a battle with them, she probably beats them. So you know, she may well have also lost her maiden tag as well. Um, she's galloped with um Am I Dreaming a Bit. Um, she's uh very talented Philly. She's actually out of a half-sister to Yorsong, who's obviously a Stalin, who also won a group one. So she's quite well bred as well. Um and and she's shown us plenty of talent at home. This is a hot field on Monday, it's not a big field, but you'll see the likes of Gaze Horse, it's by a slipper winner out of a slipper winner. Uh, most of them have been placed in Super Maidens in town, so the form is going to be pretty strong. I'd say there'll be plenty of winners come out of Monday's race in the near future, and they're probably all worth following. Um, if we don't win and we run really well, definitely get on our next start because it is a step up from what her last race was. Um, but that said, you can't knock her for her debut at all. Um, I think she's over the odds. I think she's about$21. Um and she's definitely over the odds. It's a shame you you're not getting third place for your each way bet, but uh don't don't let her go round without having a fiver on her.

SPEAKER_01 18:48

Yeah, yeah, 100%. Now you got two um two, you know, in the in the betting market, they're both pretty long odds, but you know, they're not without a chance in both of those races, and um, yeah, hopefully it'd be a good weekend for for you and the team if if you know both of them can can can run alright in those races.

SPEAKER_00 19:04

Yeah, it could be a huge weekend, and the horses don't know what price they are. So sometimes people see a horse's price tumble and they're like, oh, this thing's chances are improving all the time. The horses haven't got a clue, his chance chances haven't changed. You just just gotta be the person who gets on early when it's still a big price. That's part of the benefit, probably, of you know, somebody having a few quid on my horses. Nobody really knows who I am yet. So they let them open up at long odds, and then when people start looking at the form, sometimes they tumble. But um, yeah, yeah, no, I've I've I think Am I Dreaming will probably outrun his odds, and I certainly think uh Alpha Zeta will run outrun her odds on Monday. But she they're they're both worth following. They're they're both talented, they'll both be winning plenty of races, and they've both got bright futures. Yeah, 100%.

SPEAKER_01 19:49

All right, thanks for your time this morning, mate. Enjoy your Easter long weekend and uh best of luck in those two races.

SPEAKER_00 19:54

No worries, thanks for having me on.

SPEAKER_01 19:56

Um the next group one in the day, the TJ Smith. This one's had us both in a little bit of a pretzel over the last 24 hours looking at it. Um I'll start off with you. What are your early thoughts on the race?

SPEAKER_02 20:07

Uh the more I think about it, uh, the worse I get. I can make um reasons for every horse that can win. Obviously, yeah, sorry a couple. But Jimmy Star, we were talking last year at race in Best Bring in the Land. Um form and very consistent. It was disappointing, very disappointing first up, but excuses. Obviously, excuses the way they run. Also the media reports coming out to finish the race with two black eyes, and also whether it was a mucus or or something, showed up on the scope in his road afterwards as well. So if you completely forgive him, well, he's the one that beat. I can't quite forget. And we got Brias all both of the races. Uh when Brias were in the galaxy first up. I don't think he's getting up for it for his run. He he he went forward, he done he done a lot of work, sat wide. I actually went down to the stalls afterwards and and he was blowing the joint down, so he will improve. The more I think about the only concern is he may still need to run now. Um and is he gonna get in? I I think he does math to get in probably one out, one back if he can follow overpass and Marshal Cross. But there's a likes of Jolie Star I mean look, I'm getting myself in the press on the thing. Um Overpass is another one. I think you like him, you like him each way, and and we've we've been I'm not quite sure whether he's up to that class, but he's a particularly good um extra track sort of playing on that leadery side, he he's gonna be there for a long time. Look, I've got a I'm just gonna stick to Jolly Star because we want to monopoly all the way through. I'm not concerned as concerned about the track conditions as a lot of as a lot of people are. I think it's I think a form is more than reasonable on rain effective tracks. Obviously, we wouldn't want it to go to to to get into a heavy. Um I think Jolly Star would be my top pick. Um and the other one, which is what I just think he's He's working into his preparation nicely, uh, would have to be gig a kick. He he maps he he his twelve hundred metre form at Ramwick is superior to a lot of these. He seems to now be big back in form after that that injury that he had in the long layoff he had, it might have taken a preparation or two to to come back. He looks like he's at the top of his game. His last run was sensational. Um and he to me looks to map to get the perfect run. And if there is more rain around, well, we know he laps that up. So I I'd my my stake for that race would be 50 on Jolly Star and 50 on Giga Kick.

SPEAKER_01 22:36

Yeah, agreed with most of the points you made there. My top selection in this race is going to be Giga Kick. Last start I thought it was huge. There's a lot of punters that are off him because he was an even money favourite and he finished fourth and all those sorts of things. His close his final 200 was enormous in that race. His final hundred was enormous in that race. Um, you know, he's not a thousand metre horse, I don't think, but I think if you put his 1200 metre achievements against the likes of any of these in this race, I think he's the best over 1200 metres in terms of what he's achieved. Everest winner, Everest place getter as well, won a champion sprint in the spring as well. Um beating some of these Jolly Star. Jolly Star was a tough run. She was brave in that race as well. But I think he's the one I want to be on, especially, you know, you're getting double the quote of a Jolly Star at 10 Tyrus, who we didn't even speak about before. Um Jimmy Starr. You're getting enough enough of a price there. So I'd be going$60 on gig a kick. Uh I think he he sort of the Randwick 1200 as well, he loves it. If there is a little bit of sting out of the ground, he he'll very much appreciate that. Um so he's my top selection. I don't want to lose in the race if Jolly Starr wins because I've been saying all week that um she'll end in the 1-1 with J Mac and and you know, be very hard to catch. I sort of was leaning towards her as my top pick throughout the week and um you know, re-watching some of the races, I've switched to Gick Kick. So I've had 30 on Jolly Star, and I just don't want to be a loser on the race either if overpass gets up. I think controls the race up front as he does every start. First up, he flies. He's he's been in the Quinella eight of his ten first up runs. Uh he was very brave in the Everest against Kying Rising, only beaten a length there. And in the TJ last year, he was a brilliant Briasa performance away from winning that race as well. They they put a little bit of a margin into the rest. Run time. Yeah, and and and run serious time. So I think he's one that probably a lot of punters are maybe sleeping on at a double figure, double figure quote. He he'll be in any exotics that I have on the day. I think he's a very cheeky chance at decent value.

SPEAKER_02 24:38

Yeah, you've got to you don't want to get four or five races in either, and and the track's playing leader-ish. Yeah. He's the one that you probably want to be on if that's the case, if there is any sort of bias in the track, which as we all know can happen, particularly when it gets rain affected. Probably do need to touch on Tentauras, though. Yeah. We've left him out, he's a sure price favourite and the boom horse. I think the two horses we've come up with, Gear Kick and Jolly Starr, they're the two horses that have the best lead-up runs leading into this. Yeah. By far. Every other horse in the race, I mean, you you know, Marzo was a good last start, but if you go through every other horse in the race, it was probably disappointing coming out of their last start. Briasa to an extent, because he expected when he looked like the winner at the top of the straight and probably condition gave out. Tentauras was disappointing. But Tentaurus, I'm still a question, mate. He he hasn't he he hasn't um stepped up to this level of competition, for one. Concerns me. He may well do it, he may well blow them away. All the smart tech form rating people and and and time form rating people want to tell you how good he is, they may well be right. Um, but he doesn't he also doesn't mat to get the favours in this race. He's gonna be last, isn't he? I'm not gonna get to the outside. Yeah, I can't see any any out anywhere else he's gonna be in the run.

SPEAKER_01 25:55

From from Barrier One, he's gonna have to go all the way around him. He's gonna be stone cold last. Um, as he as he likes to be written as well, he's got that really nice turn of foot. I do think he's a very high quality horse. He's been good enough to be yeah. He um I I do I do like him as a horse, you know, was all over him in the corn or all over him in the lightning stakes. Um the new market run I thought was a lot better than what the maybe final results suggest. Had that big weight on his back and finished off nicely, he was taking ground off sepals, but that form hasn't quite been franked. Um but yeah, I think I the when I first looked at the race, I just thought from where he's gonna be, I can't see him taking three to four lengths off of a Jolly Star, for example. I I just can't see him making up that ground against some of the best sprinters in in the land and perhaps the world.

SPEAKER_02 26:41

Yeah, agreed, agreed, and at that price, too. Yeah, and at that point, if you want to give him any better price, I'm I'm we'll have to have a look at him. But I'll be more than happy to see him swoop down the outside and blow him away, and now we've we've legitimately got a new sprinting superstar. But time will tell. Yep, exactly.

SPEAKER_01 26:57

Again, Prents will buy that race extremely Donkar star handicap mile, one of the most prestigious races um in in the calendar. What are your thoughts on this race?

SPEAKER_02 27:10

I just think you know, we discussed it at at the top of the podcast. Uh I think she's a superstar, that filly. Yep. Um, I think uh Janie Mellum's copping a little bit of a bit of flack, particularly about when she comes up here. Um but I just think the way the way the race is run, Mellum down to 49 kilos is a huge bonus. I'm keen to see how she finishes off. And it could be really exciting to last for her long. I'm not too concerned about the barrier. I think it's an easy one. Look, there's some good there's some good old campaigners there, obviously in your gringots. Um you know, evaporates one of mine too. If it if it gets a little bit later, she'll go forward, but uh there's there's gonna be hot speed in it. Look, I I think bad luck's the only thing that beats her. That's yeah, that's my that's my play. It's it's it's easy.

SPEAKER_01 28:04

Yeah, yeah, I'm with you. Bad luck's probably the only thing that beats her. Can she get it from 13? Maybe, but she'll she'll she'll she'll have clear air at least. And you know, I thought watching that last start race against Autumn Boy, I thought she was gaunsky the whole way. Three wide, looked like she was overracing a little bit. Facing the breeze. Facing the breeze. It was and and Autumn Boy was was saddled up nicely in the 1-1. J Mack couldn't couldn't have given him a better ride in that race. And yeah, she just went straight past him like he was tied to a post. Like it was pretty impressive. I I've been a big fan of her for a while, ever since that first time that she raced Autumn Boy up at um Eagle Farm. You know, she was three wide facing the breeze there in the in the leading division, and um Autumn Boy got off her back and and and won by a couple of lengths there, but she stuck on nicely for second, and she's just improved since then. Um yeah, I think she's she's most definitely the one to beat. There's a couple up the top, you know, with with the bigger weights that I I give half a chance. Gringotts, I think, sting out of the ground, he's flying. He was awesome behind Autumn Glow last start, and you know, no horse is getting within a couple of lengths of Autumn Glow at the moment. So um I think he's half a chance in this race.

SPEAKER_02 29:12

Um too, and drawing very well speed, he should sit just run at hot speed, which should alleviate the weight.

SPEAKER_01 29:19

Uh another horse that will be in and around there, and a horse that I I've got you know got a lot of time for as linebacker as well. I think he's got plenty of ability. He he hasn't quite put it together yet, but if he puts in his best performance, he's he's half a chance as well. Zach Lloyd on board, who's on fire.

SPEAKER_02 29:34

Your man.

SPEAKER_01 29:35

Um yeah, my man. I I love that bloke. Um but yeah, I think there's a couple of half chances double figure odds. I might play a couple of um first fours and trifectors with some of these horses. Attic is another one who you know could jump out of the ground. Autumn Boy, you know, I can't see him making up that um I can't see him making up the difference from that um Guinea's race a couple of starts back. He can figure in the placing.

SPEAKER_02 29:58

Tricky barrier also he'll be he'll be back. Where's he? Three back defence.

SPEAKER_01 30:03

Yeah, so I just can't see him making up those couple of lengths that and she's alibi had the tougher run in that race as well. Like the the form guide says what two and a half lengths, it's probably a four lengths better performance from She's Alibi, so he he's got to make up um a fair bit to be able to beat her.

SPEAKER_03 30:19

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 30:19

Um Pericles, yeah, because he got it. Yeah, Pericles is flying as well.

SPEAKER_02 30:23

He's drawn wide, but he he he potentially maps to get the back of She's Alibi and have the last crack at her. I mean, it's probably not all.

SPEAKER_01 30:29

She's run the other day, was the outstanding, and he always pops up in these hand handicap mole races as well. He's popped up in an Epsom a couple of times and he he he can run into the top three. His form probably more consistent now. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, Bjorn Baker's certainly figured him out. So um the last group won the Australian Derby. Uh, you know, lots of different sort of ways you could look at this race. Where are you going?

SPEAKER_02 30:56

Uh I'm a tried and tested man as you know. I I like stepping out to these these journeys. Uh for the first time, a lot of these horses, I prefer to stay with what I know and what I've seen. Um so uh and I think he's done nothing wrong, he's been great all preparations over. First two starts, he was he was just I think Class got him home. Um he ground his weight. But I think I'm probably not as critical um with Craig's ride last start as a lot of people. Should he have let him roll along and run? Yes, uh yes, I agree. Um the race, just as it was, the race didn't map. He had to suit him, and he was still solid through the line. He's he's crying out to get back to 2400. Um and I'm also excited about designation I heard on a podcast the other day, I think the Matthew Smith runner. There's a little bit of mail circulating that you know he's 150 to 1 and he's a real one-piece sort of horse. If he gets to 2400, there's a bit of mail he's gonna he's gonna let squat his spirit style go out and put some real speed into the race, which could be exciting. Yeah, it could be exciting, it's gonna make for a truly run test, and I think that really observes um suits Observer. Um so my my play, again, going a little bit wide, but I I think my biggest play is on Observer. I like him, he's tried and tested. I'll be having$80 on Observer. Another one in that tried and tested. I mean, uh I think deal done fast has done nothing wrong. His run was quite good last start, also, looking for further, only beating a length and a half observer in the in the in the Vic Derby, but yet you're looking at taking three dollars observer and you can get 30 to 1 deal done fast. So that'll that'll be that'll be two of my plays, and I just want to have I just want to have$5 on designation because I I I'm hoping they do what they say they do, and he's six, seven, eight in front at the 600, and just five dollars on 150 to one. If he's six in front at the at the 600, it's gonna be exciting, isn't it? Yeah, so that they'd be my three plays.

SPEAKER_01 33:01

And I think certainly, you know, he's 151, 150 to 1 chance here, but I think he's done enough in his last couple of starts to warrant having five bucks on him because you know, last start behind. Yeah, not going terrible. Last start against Storm Leopard, who's one of the favourites, he was right out the back and just finished off nicely. And you might remember Victoria Derby a couple of years ago where I found a winner at 30 to 1 man, Zoyce. Sort of sort of looked very similar to that horse in terms of you know out the back and just finishing off nicely, looking like he wants further. He he's tried over the 2400 as well. He he will stay. That's one thing you do know about designation, is he he he will stay.

SPEAKER_02 33:40

So and racing accordingly at the moment.

SPEAKER_01 33:42

Yeah, and you know, if they make it a truly run race, I want something that I know is going to stay. I don't want to be on a storm leopard, I don't want to be on a green spaces that I've got a little bit of a query on at the distance. So let's hope they do what they've said, because it'll be exciting and mate for a good race. Yeah, 100%. Um I'm observer on top. I've had um 60 well sixty dollars observer to win. I like I said, I don't think that race set up all that well for him last start. I think he wanted a a bit more of a genuine tempo, and you know, they they walked in that race. So um he's finished off quite nicely there, and I think he can turn the tables on a green spaces and went past him in that race, but um, and you know, tried at the 2500 Victorian derby winner. I think he's the class horse in the race. Um, so I I want to be on him as my top pick. The one that I've found at a bit of a price is one step closer um Zach Lloyd's mount.

SPEAKER_02 34:34

He's got a bit of Zach Lloyd fanboying going on here.

SPEAKER_01 34:39

A little bit, but I I think I think this horse, he he finished fourth in the Victoria Derby and flashed home late. I know that he's gonna stay as well. I I think there was plenty of merit in his running that Rose Hill Guineas as well, uh, you know, finishing alongside Observer, finishing alongside Green Space as he was finishing off quite nicely there. They went a little bit early on him because it was a slow tempo and he got a good little hit out over that final 600. Um and in that derby run, I thought he was just as good, if not better, than deal done fast in that same race. He came from right out the back and and was, you know, sort of had a flashing light on him down the outside as well. I I think he's one that at a at a he's 40 to 1 at the moment. He's won at a price that I could have$20 each way on.

SPEAKER_02 35:24

Yeah, yeah, respect it. Respect it. And they do you get some blowouts, don't you? Yeah. I mean the last few years we haven't. The Riff Rockets and Alianas and the like, but yeah, I think I don't know that there's that style of horse in this race. I think it's shown even in the lead ups they're pretty even. You know, probably the classier horses. Um it's uh I I guess not there, so I think you can you can you can go wide and and have a bit of fun.

SPEAKER_01 35:50

Yeah, it's certainly a race where you can sort of spec a few each way here. So um alright, we'll go on to the Randall card, the first race, 1100 metres, group three, kindergarten stakes for the two-year-olds. Um a lot of there's a couple of first starters in this race, a couple of horses have only been to the been to the track once or twice. What what were your thoughts?

SPEAKER_02 36:08

Yeah, as you know, they I I'm not a huge I love the two-year-old racing, uh, but it's very hard to to to do your form and and um they're all just learning their trade. You know, a lot of these are inexperienced. Um a lot of them, this is a bit of an afterthought, also, this race, so not not um not overly keen to play in the race, but one I have seen that to troll like an absolute bomb is Blue Doe. More concern that you know Beijon's horses generally as a rule troll that way, but just the way he let down at the top of the straighten that troll. Fantastic action, well bred. I might prefer to be a thousand metres first up, but the 1100 is still not all that much of a concern. I I believe it was a heavy truck as well the day it trolled. So a bit of sting out doesn't help, uh, doesn't hurt. So I I can see that horse jumping being right on the speed, giving a good kick up the rise. There might be a couple of horses behind it that are a little bit better race conditioned and might be able to run over the top of it, but I think it's gonna give you a huge shout.

SPEAKER_01 37:18

Yep. Uh I in this race I I'm on the favourite. I'm not very keen to play in this race, like as as you said, but I thought he was impressive enough. He he beat a bunch of slow ones, to be honest, in his last start win. But then he came back to the trials, and I thought he trolled enormous there, finished off nicely, through the line, and I think 1100 metres is a good next step for him. Very expensive cult. They'd want him to be to be something decent. That's probably why you're getting a$2.40 price. I don't know how keen I am. If you're getting sort of$3 about him, I I might be a little bit more, you know, excited, but um I I couldn't really look past him in that first race. Um the second race, Adrian Knox, 2,000 metres, uh group three for the Phillies heading towards an Oaks. Uh what have you found in this?

SPEAKER_02 38:08

I'm looking for something to stand up in this race as far as looking ahead towards the Oaks. Um geese, I I'm not sure about the three odd staying Phillies at the moment. Um so I'm looking at a race that I do look at most years, uh that that Campbell race. Yep. Um and a horse that I thought got back and wasn't entitled to finish where it was was profoundly, but it hit the line really good. Looks like the 2000 will suit. More importantly, the 2400 might also suit. So I'm really looking at that horse to see. Obviously, there's two different form lines going in. Um I'm not gonna I I I think that the um the Arrowfield form line was very sketchy. It it threw out a lot of question marks. So I I'm really keen to to to look at this race eating or oaks, and I think profoundly coming out of that that um that mile race at Newcastle looks looks to map good. I like the backup too. I I do like they haven't uh haven't been as successful the last few years, Adrian Ox horses backing up into the Oaks, but it that's generally because the Arrowfield is the form where all the good fillies go. But I don't know are they the good fillies? I'm not sure that this year that that is the path of the better horses. I'm not sure that they are, I'm not convinced that they are the better horses going through that Arrowfield. So yeah, preferring on you know, five dollars, you get a decent price to find out. Maybe you have something on the oaks before this other.

SPEAKER_01 39:38

Yeah, yeah. I was gonna say that. Um you probably pull that up now. But um I I found one of double figures here that uh I'm pretty keen on to play at an each-way price. Um Spicy Lou. She'll be sitting on top of the speed, so if there is any hint of leader bias, it helps. No. No. Um but yeah, she uh won the Ethereal in the spring, lead up to the Victorian Oaks, and she was you know a pretty impressive winner, you know, leading leading them around and kicking away. Um I think she's a forgive run in that Kembler race. The start before, she was beaten a length and a half, she's the alibi salty pearl. So so that jumped out of the page at me. Um and then, you know, she was beaten two lengths in that Kembler race, sat on top of the speed, 1600, maybe not ideal, steps out to 2000 now, where she can probably, you know, get a few of them off the bridle, straighten it up. And I think she's one that at an each-way price will give you a really good sight. Um spicy Lou on this one. Has the exact same setup as as the spring where she won the Ethereal, which is obviously the key lead up to the Victorian Oaks. Um, I think she can do a similar thing here over 2,000.

SPEAKER_02 40:51

Yeah, profoundly for the for the Oaks, she's their rank these these pre-post markets. Profoundly$15. If she comes out and wins and wins well, you're probably looking at her coming in at$6 or$7. How's it? I hope I wins still$2.50. Like that's yeah, I don't know. I can't bet futures pre-posts. Let's forget the all-in markets every time. Yeah, yeah, they rank. Look$15. If you if you if you had a$15 ticket after she wins this week going to the Oaks, it's that's that's not too bad about it.

SPEAKER_01 41:21

Yeah. Um race three to lead up to the Sydney Cup, the chairman's quality.

SPEAKER_02 41:26

Who? Absolutely run it every weekend and a different loss will win it. Yeah. Um look, New Look. I I found New Look. I think you need to be looking at there's no point trying to jump into favourites or things that are that are in the market really or hard in the market in these sort of races because you just don't know whose turn it's going to be. New look, I think he's just working into into the preparation nice. Um, finished off quite well last start. Was only beaten, was only beaten a length behind the in a very similar race, down in the weights, so ten dollars that that that that'll do me without too much sort into the race, to be honest.

SPEAKER_01 42:08

Yeah, it's a little bit of a race where they all have their turn, don't they? It's the same horses going against each other, and and and none of them can seem to string wins together. I've gone for the horse that's probably the most consistent of this bunch, and that's Travolta at$5. Um, drawn wide, drew wide last start as well, and was cast out the back and flashed home down the outside in that race that um that Mr. Monaco won with you know the likes of Yu Gibo and Um Campaldino, and that went straight past Campaldino, and Camp Aldino shorter in the market. I think he likes the 2600 meter trip. He won the St. Ledger in the spring. Um, he he's starting to string together some really consistent racing of late is Travolta. Gets J Mac on board, so from Barrier 13, I'm just putting trust that he can put this horse into a decent enough position, be close enough to strike late. Um race number four. This is do you want to pull that up for me because I forgot which it's the Western Swing and Rivallo, right? Yeah, uh the Carbine Club over 1600 metres. I found this race pus, to be honest. Um, what have you tipped in it?

SPEAKER_02 43:15

Yeah, I'd I'd have to agree with that, and again, you know, back to the to the tried and tested, there's there's a lot of different form lines in this. Um, I think the top two, without without putting a lot of thought in it, I think the top two, um, Rivellino, obviously, you know, being beaten six length she's otherwise, but we've already discussed how we we think she is that form for me i i is good enough to say he should be that price, and we're gonna tip him no I'm not, he's drawn 13, and he and he hasn't won for a long time. Wester Swindon has been a little bit disappointed in his preparation, but he's running races around the like the sixties um sixties twice. Um he could be that all. He's drawing well now. He's out to a reasonable price. Drawing well doesn't look to be a lot of speed in the race. He could just he could take it up and fourth up now to the mile. We know he likes the mile. He might just be too hard to he might be too hard to catch. Again, not a lot of thought into it. Like you said, it's it's it's not a great race. It probably won't be punting.

SPEAKER_01 44:23

Yeah, I I think if I'm going to have something on anything in this race, I I originally looked at the top two in the market, you know, your Evelinos, Resta Swindons. They're they're the class horses in the race, if you can call them class, they're they've run in the class, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 44:37

They've run in the top quality race.

SPEAKER_01 44:39

They're they're bringing the good form here. But I found one down the bottom,$14 in this race, Olympian. I think it's the horse that could be on the up out of this field. Great name. Um, yeah, great name. It's it's looked quite impressive in its last two starts, you know, coming down the outside. I I think they went a little bit uh forward on her first first up, and um yeah, he he didn't really appreciate that he didn't finish off quite as nicely. He's been ridden cold the last two two attempts and and really come home nicely down the outside both starts. I think he's one that you know if West of Swindon injects a little bit of tempo into it for me, I think the one or the other there's another horse aerodrome or something like that that goes for it. There will be a little bit of speed. So so if there's just enough speed in the race, I think um Olympian's the horse that bought the super sour of the autumn sun, also on his last two.

SPEAKER_02 45:33

60 kilos last start now, down on the limit.

SPEAKER_01 45:36

Yep, could could be um a good each-way chance there. Yeah, um, yeah, I liked it. Race five, the country championships final. I hate betting in these races, um, but I think we've both found one that we don't mind, especially with the sting out of the ground.

SPEAKER_02 45:51

Yeah, uh Maddie Dunshorse, um, obviously considered. I think five in a row now. Keeps winning. It's you know, winners win, obviously. Um it's it hasn't been winning by huge margins, and and the the form may be questionable by other races, but it just continues to win. Finds different track conditions, different scenarios in races, maps well, Maddie brings his horses down the freeway and they they consistently run well and they're competitive in these races. And I I think if you fell one when when Maddie done a natural wheeler team up, they've got quite a good strike rate. Um and I think good price will be looking at four or five dollars.

SPEAKER_01 46:34

Yeah, yeah, 390 at the moment, second favourite behind Shittiak, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 46:38

I'm sure it was five dollars when it looked yesterday or four. Yeah. Yeah, I I'm keen. Uh again, I geez, I don't have enough time to be doing format water and places like that, but just looking, just looking at that also, I I I think that'd be my play for the race.

SPEAKER_01 46:53

Yeah, uh, it's my on top selection. I've just got another one here that I want to have a little bit of go at. Uh no, this horse is coming out of midway form. So so Randwick and and Rose Hill and the likes. It's been it was very impressive in this well, not very impressive, it's a midway horse, but comparatively to these horses. It's run some really good races at Randwick and at Rose Hill before. It's used to you know, used to the track. Poison point down the bottom there.$34 here. Um I just think it's a little bit over the odds considering the form that it probably brings into this race. Um drawn awkwardly, yes, but uh I I'm I I'm willing to Zach Lloyd. Oh, is it Zach Lloyd as well? Yeah, I think. Um, yeah, well, if there's any jockey from 14 that's gonna get him across. What about the bumper?

SPEAKER_02 47:46

Fingers hunter.

SPEAKER_01 47:47

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Well known. Um, well named. But yeah, I I'm I'm mostly considered. I want to have a look at Poison Point as well on race day. Um we've sort of gone through our group once, but just to recap our top picks, Campion d'Italia for both of us. Um Giga Kick for me in the TJ. You've gone with Jolly Star. Yep. Um she's alibi for both of us and observer for both of us in the uh Doncaster and the Derby. And then race 10. My um I think David Gately calls it a D-Day horse, the the horse that just has to win, or you know, in the bin she goes, it'll be In Karuna in that PJ bell.

SPEAKER_02 48:29

A lot of people burnt, and you do get burnt when they go around favourite and they get beat. But things haven't quite mapped exactly well for us. She was fantastic first up. Second up, maybe she got a bit too wide in the track that day. I don't know. She wasn't it um it wasn't that bad a run. If you can forgive the fact she was favourite and everyone thought she was the best of day at the time, the run was good. Third up, perfect in the preparation. Blinkers go back on. She's a bit tough watch if she gets beat.

SPEAKER_01 48:58

Yeah, I think for her as well in that race, the one that was in front of her, she accelerated and went straight past him. I just think she found one better in catch the glory who had a really good run in that race and flashed down the outside. Like she looked the winner until the post when she wasn't. Is that a bad sign? I don't know, but I think you know the blinkers-on factor is huge. I think she maps to get a similar, if not better, run in this race. I think it's set up perfectly for her third up here. Um, and I don't think she's gonna find one better in this race. I don't think there's a horse to her quality looking at this field. So I think at$3, you're getting a better price this week than you were um two weeks ago. So I think a lot of people are just off her because she hasn't been winning. And that's why you're getting three dollars. Yeah, yeah, exactly. So I think she's a play in that last race.

SPEAKER_02 49:46

Tough day though, all in that really. Tough we've gone in the last few weekends with a few short price multis and had a little bit of joy, but the confidence around this week's a little bit harder, but some good racing, I'll I'm looking forward to it.

SPEAKER_01 49:57

Um, it is super tricky at Caulfield. We won't go into that. I've just got two there to start the day and to finish the day off nicely for us. Engine of war in the first. I think he brings a little bit of a class factor to this race,$4.80 to sort of find out if he's if he's going as good as as he probably looks. And um gold medalist$3.50 in the last. I backed it last start uh at Caulfield. It was seven to one that day, went or she was seven to one that day. Um went back to the inside in the inferior ground at Caulfield and uh sort of not blew them away, but but won pretty handily. Um I think it's a little bit of a step up in class, but yeah, she was very impressive, and I think she's quite progressive.

SPEAKER_02 50:36

I can't help you, I didn't even know Crawford was racing. Yeah, not interested.

SPEAKER_01 50:40

Um so yeah, we'll we'll we'll wrap it up there. Um anything else, Ad?

SPEAKER_02 50:45

No, I look just excited about um she's an alibi. Yeah, I think the rating's enormous at the moment. There's exciting horses going around each week, and I really really looking forward to her blowing them away.

SPEAKER_01 51:01

Yeah, 100%. Alright. She's listening next Friday for championships day two.