THE TIP SHEET; Championships day 2 preview ft/ Brad Tyson

Welcome back to the tip sheet, where myself and Brad Tyson go through the weekends races and try to find some winners

 This weeks focus is at Randwick for Championships day 2

IG - jacobtyson__

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:00

Welcome back to the tip sheet uh coming to you on a Wednesday morning. Uh will be released later today. Just gonna go through, you know, all the uh races of championships day two. But first I think we start off by discussing uh the man of the hour, Brad Tyson, with one of the all-time heaters last week, winners in the first three races, up on the group one staking plan by$275. I'm beating you in that regard,$357 for the information. But joined by Brad Tyson again.

SPEAKER_00 0:32

Yeah, look, one of the great days. Um, yes, you are beating me monetary. But uh, I think was it six six of the ten winners? Um, I'll take that every day of the week. Might have spread my staking a little bit further um than I would have liked. But look, geez, as we s as we talked about, I probably wasn't overly, overly confident about last week's racing, uh apart from she's alibi, who I'm sure we'll talk about. Um, but and the first two-year-old, which I was pretty keen on. But you know, it was nice to have a little bit of luck and a few good rides. Yep. Rachel King helped me out with a couple. Yeah, so no, it was good. Yeah, she was on the heater.

SPEAKER_01 1:07

Good day, all in all. Yep. Um I myself went, I think, three for twelve in my tipping, but the uh group one staking plans well up. I was very confident on campy on d'Italia. A little bit filthy talked me out of having him as the best of the day, but why not?

SPEAKER_00 1:21

Yeah, you know my theory on Tier. I'll just having the best of the day. Although I might do a bit of Michael Jackson moonwalk on that today, but anyway, we'll worry about that later.

SPEAKER_01 1:30

Yeah. Um, I wanted to just to recap last week's action, first thing I want to talk about, the major talking point, I guess, you know, the the pub chat across the horse racing industry. Everyone's discussed it. She's an alibi autumn glow. Firstly, who's who's the best horse in the country right now? And secondly, who would have won on the weekend? Because I think I've got different answers for those two questions.

SPEAKER_00 1:55

Well, Autumn Glow's the best horse in the country. Um, she's done what she's Aliboy hasn't done. Um she's beaten the older horses, she's beaten them at weight for age. Obviously, there's a little bit of water to go on the bridge this weekend. Um, look, I think we said last week if Autumn Glow wasn't around, she's Aliboy, undoubtedly the most exciting horse in the country, and that was before the run the other day. We were happy. My best of the day of putting get out. Gee's at the 800 a lot. She's gonna need to be as good as I think she is just to win the race. She didn't just win it, she won it and put him away. Um I don't really want to get into the butt the debate of who would have won the race. I think I said to you after the race, I could have seen Autumn Glow putting three or four on those, and potentially the Philly with the lightweight might have come at her and been with that turn a foot. She might have caught her by surprise, but I don't know. We'll never know. Um I could have seen Autumn Glow do the same thing to those horses, so I think it's a bit irrelevant. A superstar win, uh, can't take anything away from her. 49 on the back. I'm glad that people are seeing obviously what Moody and and you know we've been a big fan of it for a while. They're seeing that early. Yeah, um, it took them a lot longer to catch on to Autumn Glow, but they've seen them catch on this Philly pretty quick. But I don't think we're gonna see him cat um collide to it anytime soon, so we won't know.

SPEAKER_01 3:21

Yeah, I think uh hearing you know connections of both horses speak doesn't seem like either of them are keen to take each other on. I think on that point of they've caught onto She's Alibi a lot quicker than Autumn Glow, I think it's that whole um, you know, back markers slash run on horses versus the the horses that go forward and just and just do enough. Like your animo was sort of like that, where he'd sort of settle midfield or just above midfield and just do enough and win by sort of half length to a length. And Autumn Glow was doing that a lot up until probably that George Ryder win where she did put a gap in him, and that's when they sort of caught on to her. Whereas like she's an alibi has been visually impressive coming from the back of the field, even in that Randwick Guinea's three-wide right out the back and flashing home, and and has had like the more visually impressive wins, but you know, Autumn Glow, tactically a bit more versatile, lands often in the one-one or or forward in the race at least, and um you know, has been doing enough to win. So I I think yeah, it's that visual sort of side of things with them. Um I did put up a video the other day, October 11th last year. I found she's alibi. I was putting me mates onto it. So yeah, yeah, very, very happy with that performance on the weekend. Um the next biggest talking point, uh, which I think, you know, the Australian media, uh, particularly maybe the Victorian media. I think Sydney media is a little bit more keen on our sprinters, but the Victorian media media just been potting our sprinting grades at the moment. Um I wanted to talk about that. Car Ying Rising's obviously going to be well odds on it in Everest. I don't think it's as simple as he's got six lengths on our vest. Uh I I heard um I heard the other day somebody on a podcast say that our horses are just a bunch of Helios Expresses, and he'll and he'll just come over and do what he does to that horse over here. So I I thought that was a little bit um of an interesting comment. What do you think? Uh particularly, you know, Jolly Starr affiliate that we're going to talk about a little bit later as well. You know, Giga Kick or some of these horses, how do you think they rate?

SPEAKER_00 5:24

Well, he may well, he may well do. He may well come over, and he's done it, he's done it last year. Um he got the favours, but he's the sort of horse that gives himself the favours. He can draw wide and still put himself outside the lead, travel on a hot tempo. So look, there's no you know, any any has to travel eight hours, eight to ten hours to get here and do it, and through quarantine, so that there's no knocking him. He definitely should be odds on and and the one to beat. But he has sprinters are good sprinters. Um when you talk Jolly Starr, I think I sent you a message straight after the race. One word, underrated. Yeah. Um I'm hoping the talk of she doesn't handle the wet track is sort of put to rest a little bit now. I've sort of you know, that day she won at Eagle Farm, albeit it was rated at a soft five. They had a downpour leading into the race. It looked a bit slippery. She gave her mate lengths at the furlong. It was one of the best ones you've ever seen. And horses that don't handle wet tracks can't take that sort of ground off good horses on wet tracks. Um in the times that she maybe has been disappointed to an extent on wet tracks. I've been in races like the Everest where she's been too far off the speed. She's now putting herself or J Max, she's drawing, drawing well, putting herself closer to the speed, so she can therefore travel three or four lengths closer to these horses, and she's picking them up in on those wet tracks. So we put that to bed now.

SPEAKER_01 6:49

Yeah, I was just gonna add on Jolly Star right. I showed, you know, I was I was at um the race with a couple of mates, showed one of her mates uh a graphic that I think racing.com or seven horse racing might have put up, and it's all the different horses in that TJ Smith, and it's you know Jimmy Starr, the the three million dollar man or whatever, and it's um it's Tentaurus, the exciting boom cult. And then Jolly Starr was on that graphic and it just said the J Mac factor. And I turned around and looked, I went. Maybe she's she's the best sprinter in the country. Look, I I never got on the Jimmy Starr bandwagon, maybe I should have. I I never thought he was the best out and out sprinter, and I said that lot as much last week. Jolly Starr has come back at her absolute peak. Just because she hasn't won a T Joe and Everest to this point, she can put that to bed now. But that was the only reason why people didn't rate her as much as as much as they should have. She's she's definitely the best sprinter in the country at well.

SPEAKER_00 7:48

Well, she's now on five for one. She's got a new market.

SPEAKER_01 7:51

Based on the on the proof that we've got at the moment, she's the best sprinter in the country. Yeah, I think there's a Philly that's gonna that's gonna go go past her. Potentially, potentially. Um do we want to get into our tips? You got more to add?

SPEAKER_00 8:04

No, that's about all.

SPEAKER_01 8:05

Alright, um Brandwick track conditions, rails out four metres. The inside was a little bit off on the weekend, uh, but the rail comes out four metres. Soft five at the moment, no rain expected up till Saturday. Um and you know, 20, 20, and then 30 degrees, I think, in the lead up. So it should dry out. I've done my form for a good four. Uh soft five at absolute worst. Uh, the Australian Oaks. I have put this as a race in two, and I don't think it's the two favourites.

SPEAKER_00 8:37

Uh well, profoundly. Profoundly is one of the favourites, isn't she? Yep. You haven't got her?

SPEAKER_01 8:42

No, I have got her. I don't I was counting out one of the favourites. I don't think it's one of the two favourites.

SPEAKER_00 8:48

Okay, now yeah, you confused me. I'm easily confused though. No, look, I I I'd agree, and um one of the first three winners in the bag last week, profoundly. I thought the win was great. We spoke previously into it. I wasn't a hundred percent sure about the um the uh the Arafield stud stakes form. Yep. The alternative form, and I was looking for something to stand up in that race. So I thought profoundly great ride. Yep, had all the favours, but very strong through the line. I think 2400 is not gonna be a concern. Uh the weak backup is good. Barrier 10 may be a small concern, but at least particularly with those sorts of uh races, something will run along. And you know, if you draw a barrier barrier ten and you're a stone and you need time to wind up, you you you're gonna get room. So uh you know, freedmans, they're master trainers, especially at those H journeys and and the like, and you've got you know Tony Berry's in pretty good form, so yeah. Look, I I I'm I'm keen on her. Um I think we've got the top two, yeah, the same exactly.

SPEAKER_01 9:52

So if you want to talk more about the other or I I looked at this race and it's the Vinery stud or it's the um the Adrian Knox from last week. They're the two lead up races. I think 29 of the last 34 winners have come through that race as the lead up. Um and I looked at this race and went, okay, the best the run of the race in the Vinery, I thought was after summer. Uh and she looks like she she needed the extra distance. They sort of left her a little bit on the turn, Belle Chavelle and Salty Pearl, which is good form, like that's well-written form, and that she's alibi form, those two horses. They left her on the turn a little bit, but then she picked up and accelerated nice over that last 200 and and was only beaten a pimple by Belle Chavelle. So I think$8.50 that they put up for this horse was slightly disrespectful, especially considering the the margin to a hope they wins as well, which I'm not discrediting her completely. I'm not saying that she's no Hope A Hope wins. The price difference is like I wanted to be, I said to you earlier in the week, I wanted to be with Ajope wins, but$2.20, leave me out of it. Like But I agree with you. I don't think she was the best run in the airfield either. Yeah, yeah, in the vinary stuff. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I I don't think she was the run of the race in that race. So I'm going$50 after summer and I'm going$50 on profoundly. I think they were the runs of the race in the um in the two major lead ups. So I think that's what that's where I want my money to be.

SPEAKER_00 11:21

Well done, six to four.

SPEAKER_01 11:22

Yep. Yep. Easy. Um the Sydney Cup. I found this a little bit of a weird race to do the form on. As always. Um yeah, I I'm you know, I I'm spread out a little bit. I I've gone quite wide in this race. Where what have you gone?

SPEAKER_00 11:36

Yeah, I went too wide last week. I won't be going all that wide. I'm actually obviously the third of my three winners in the first three races the other day. New look. Um I thought Map's great. I I thought Map well into that race last week. Um again, I love the back up into a distance race. Um horses obviously done well. Um down to 51 kilos. So beats what's the favourite in the race? Uh what's the Mr. Monaco? Yep. So beats to Mr. Monaco's and are like a kilo or so better than than when he met him last time. Um looks, went right through the line the other day. Again, a peach of a ride and and and had all the favours, but went right through the line. So I think it's I think it's the one for me down the weights. I'd like to have one down in the weights. Um and drawn well. Now, Barrier one's interesting to me this week, and I've I've looked at rail out four metres.

SPEAKER_01 12:28

Yep.

SPEAKER_00 12:29

Uh they were probably five to six metres off the rail the other day. So but there's a world where this week rail out four metres, that potentially two to three lengths on the fence that wasn't really used that much last week, it might now become a fast lane. So it might be an advantage to be on the inside. I could be wrong, but you you might need to be getting further out again past what was chopped up last week. But I still I feel as though there might be a world, especially with a track drying out, where it's generally pretty even, but still that inside section of the track didn't get used all that much last week. So new look, we'll need a good ride. Rachel King aboard, um, the buses and team. Um get that knife run up the fence like she did a Rappahoe style a few years ago, which I was on at a good price. Yep. Um so that'll be 50 on that. River of Stars will be the other one. I'll just have 50 on River of Stars. This is her race if she's going to win a group one over here. I don't think she's badly weighted. She's a core field cut place, you get her run well in the Melbourne Cup, will run 3200 metres. And I love a horse going to a handicap that's just been running nice races sitting in the line, behold, be behind those good weight for age horses at weight for age. Yeah. So she's carrying less than weight for age weight. Um, and uh, you know, I think reasonable price. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 13:50

Both horses. Yep. Um, I, you know, those two are in my um numbers. I've gone 40 on River of Stars, 20 on New Look. Just a couple that I thought were a little bit of value out wider. Athabaskin went to the inferior ground last time. Uh, he drops weight, he's got 53 kilos on his back this time. He's been a quality sorta, you know, he's been in that in those stayers ranks for for a long old time now. He's a St. Ledger winner. Uh, you know, he's going to get out to 3200. He's performed decently in the Melbourne Cup, you know, finished top 10 in that race two years ago. Um, yeah, I think him he's a good each-way chance here. I think he went up$51 when when they put the prices up earlier. So I'll be having$10 each way on him. Um and Valiant King, when I first looked at this race, um I just wanted to be on the you know the quality horses in this race in terms of your stay as ranks. Now, Valiant King, he was okay to the line last start in the Tank Rid. He was beaten about a length and a half by River of Stars, and you're getting about$20 Valiant King,$7.50 River of Stars. Uh, Valiant King probably needs a little bit more tempo in his races. He probably wants a dry track. He didn't get either of those things in the Tankered. Um, so you know, if it is gonna be a good four and potentially, you know, maybe get a little bit um drier as well, he could be one that's sort of uh finishing off nicely late at an each way price. Um the Queen Elizabeth, is this how how are you gonna play this with a dollar forty favourite?

SPEAKER_00 15:28

Uh look, this is this is madness um generally speaking, but I think we probably myself jumped on Autumn Glow, I think probably the second or third start. Yeah, commented about how good her action was and it followed her all the way through, and I think we've taken the three dollars, the four dollars, the dollar the the dollar fifties, the dollar sixties, we've just taken whatever's been given. And I see no reason not to do that again this week. Yeah. Um, I think Linderman jumps out and leaves, I think she gets grabs his back. Again, for her, I'm hoping that inside of the track works a favour. So hopefully she can just pop off the heels of one. And I I I think she can really show something special. I I've thought for a while now, 2000 suit, obviously as do the trainer and the jockey. Yeah. Um that's the only thing that will beat her is if she doesn't run that strong 2000. But I've never, with her action, her length, her scope, um just her demeanour, I I have no concerns at all with running 2000. And why not just pick up$40 off the ground?

SPEAKER_01 16:39

Yeah, yeah. Well, if you won't walk past$40 on the ground, you're not you're not going past it, I have. That's my thinking.

SPEAKER_00 16:44

Can I can I just say, I'll say one thing, and I think um you you might be able to enlighten us more um about Aliana after an interview you've got you've got coming up in the next few days. Interesting that she's she's going to this race. It would have been easy to to to win back-to-back root ones and then put her in the paddock. I'd like to sort of know if the you know, she's gonna be competitive in this. I don't think that anyone thinks she'll beat Aw and Glood. Um but maybe is it more of a more miles in the leagues in preparation for a Melbourne Cup next next. Is this more of a I'm not saying it's there's not a race here looking at being competitive in this time, but is there also an element of of Melbourne Cup next time? Um so that'll be interesting. That'll be interesting to get to sort of no post race. And look, always each way, it's hard to leave Cer Dilius here because he was touted as the best horse in the country this time four months ago, wasn't he? Well, six months ago. Six months ago, sorry, after a couple of those wins down there. Yeah but I uh there's no horse going better than Linderman. Yeah, he's flying, he's the leader. He gets the league probably himself again. And you know, he's got the Aliana form. Yeah, which is I can see him hanging on to run a place as well.

SPEAKER_01 18:01

But yeah, yeah, I'm I'm taking the dollar forty. Um I am two horses that I'm I've been super confident on for a very long time. Aliana. How long ago did I start backing her?

SPEAKER_00 18:13

Like I've been week before the Carbine Club I think you were on that day, Ramwick?

SPEAKER_01 18:18

Yep, ten dollars that day as well, and then she was five dollars in the carbine club, was absolute madness. Had a good day that day, very good day that day. Um, and you know, I I've been saying it this whole prep. I I think she's gonna be a Melbourne cup horse. I I've been saying very elegant 2.0. Chris Waller has said that recently as well. He said that after the Tank could win, she could be our next very elegant. I think it's as easy as Autumn Glow wins the race. I'm so confident she runs 2000. I I think there's a lot of people talking about breeding this and breeding that. Well, a street boss cult just won the derby, so you know, she'll be breeding up your ass. Schnitzels of one action. Yeah, it's it I I think optically she looks like she'll run the 2000 out super strongly. The way she extends through the line, you just commented on her action. I I I think she's a good thing. Um, so I'll be going an exacta Autumn Glow and Aliana, just one, two. Like, I I think that's as easy as uh sort of putting get out, and you know, you're getting a little bit more than the$40. Uh the Queen of the Turf. I found this a little bit of a tricky race. Uh, where are you going?

SPEAKER_00 19:30

Actually, yeah, look, it's always tricky when trying to engine the race, isn't it? Um commenting to you last night. Hopefully, from Barry One, she's a bit slow away, and they just jump across her and put her away, and we don't have to worry about it, but that's probably unlikely to happen. Um look, one of mine has had no luck, and I followed her for a while, and we're on her early, and there was big booms, and I believe this time 12 or 18 months. What's flight stakes?

SPEAKER_01 19:58

Flight stakes, yeah, about well, nearly two years ago.

SPEAKER_00 20:01

About 18 months ago now. Um she came out and she came out and won that by a big spacer race at Autumn Glow was gonna be in. So there's another turning point. What would have happened that day if Autumn Glow goes around? Um she's back to the mile. Although the run at 1500 was good last start at Rachel, she went up the inside of the track, which wasn't an advantage, let down really nice, looked like she sort of was gonna flatten out to the line, but then through the line I thought was great. So I've I know they've tried to train her as a sprinter, but I think back to a mile is really gonna suit her. She's finally drawn a barrier. Well, she drew two last up, but like I said, I don't think that was a hindrance drawing two last up, being forced back to the inside. Again, back to my trainer thought that I think the track will be fair, potentially maybe on rail, might even suit if they can find that ground that wasn't damaged last week. Um, J Mac on board, finally draws a barrier, hopefully puts herself just behind the speed, and I think she's gonna be really hard to beat because she's she's she hasn't won for a little while now, which is a small concern, but she's had not a lot of luck.

SPEAKER_01 21:03

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 21:04

Um and interested in your mare as well. I mean I don't know that she can win it, but I'm interested to see how Idle Flyer goes at this grade. Again, drawn well. Yeah. Your man, Zaki Lauderboard. Um, but I'm my hundred's going on Lady Shendale, keep it simple.

SPEAKER_01 21:16

Um I'm going with my uh two mayors. Um, Idol Flyer and Treasure the moment. I'm just gonna have 50 on each of those two. Idle Flyer. I thought she was a huge run in the emancipation, looked like she was gonna be a little bit lucklessly and then and then let down nicely and extended through the line. I think the 1600 metres are gonna suit. She finished last to only go over 1600. That was behind Pride of Jenny, and I think she just had enough at that point in the prep. I'm willing to put that in the forgive book. Um, and I think this time they're gonna have something to take them up to Pride of Jenny and you know, likes a perfumist. Um and I believe the uh staying fit uh staying mare, she's a hustler as well, will go. Forward, so I think they've got a couple to cart her up to cart them up to Pride of Jenny. I think Older Fly can let down nicely down the outside once Zachie Lloyd gets her out. And then Treasure of the Moment as well. I think that confidence boosting win last start is going to be huge for her. Obviously, the Colic setback last prep, not sure if that's you know much of a valid excuse considering the way she's continued to perform poorly to her price. But you know, I I think if she's she's got this set up. Put a bit of thought into her as well. She's class. There's enough class. Yeah, and you know, she hasn't performed well against Pride of Jenny. Probably why I'm not outright on Treasure at the moment. Like she's she's she's had three goes against her and and hasn't performed all that well. But this time with an with a bit more speed in the race, I don't think she has to be the one to take them up to Pride of Jenny this time. And yeah, so she could be three back defence like she was in that MEMSY. And if she does, if she performs anywhere near the benchmark that she said in that MEMSY, she'll blow this field away. I don't know if she can. I don't know, you know, what I'm just sort of taking on trust a little bit.

SPEAKER_00 23:08

Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 23:09

Alright, um, let's go into the rest of our Randwick card uh raced one. I'm not sure if you found anything. This is a two-year-old Fernhill mile over 1600 metres. One that finished off beautifully, and that's a Tono Glow race down the strait was Cylan. Uh concern stepping up 12 to 1600. It is a bit of a concern, but you know, I I'm just gonna trust what my eye sees with this horse.

SPEAKER_00 23:36

Celan?

SPEAKER_01 23:36

Yep. I'm just gonna trust what my I see's with this horse. The way that she finished off, I I think she'll like the mile. Maybe the fitness might blow out a little bit late, but um, yeah, I'm I'm gonna trust what my I see's.

SPEAKER_00 23:51

Yeah, I remember watching that race and it did it hit line quite well. 12 to 16 unknown, but not you know, it's it's it's a tricky race. Um I've just gone with Hydro Bomb without a great deal of confidence again, drawn well, probably has the form, you know, weighted, waited for the form with this at the set weights and penalties. Um yeah, hydro bomb with without a great deal of interest in the race.

SPEAKER_01 24:16

Um race two, that is the 1400 metre race. Um what's it called? No, not the more it's not the Phillies and Mayors, it is the South Pacific classic. Yeah. Random, random name. Um, yeah, so 1400 metres. Um I like one. I don't know what price he's gonna come up here, but I thought he was a very um brave last start, three wide racing without cover, and I think he finished off nicely in the Derby Munro. He gets that extra 200 metres that I think he really likes. He was an eight-length winner at Caulfield and became a really big boom horse. He was a$2 favourite in the Carbine Club, and that's Regal Award. I think you know, out to 1400 suits him. He has that added fitness. He, you know, I think he was entitled to finish closer than what he did last starts, um, with obviously a very tough run, drawn better this time as well. So uh yeah, I'll be with Regal Award in this race.

SPEAKER_00 25:11

Yeah, look, I'm gonna I'm gonna stick with one that I've been with for a while. I she was good last preparation without being great, but cannot draw a barrier and has not drawn a barrier again within the law, barrier 13. But she's used to being three and four deep, a little bit of cover. This is probably a race that lacks a bit of depth with a little bit of speed on. Um so again, without it uh a great deal of confidence in the race, I'm gonna stick, I'm gonna give her another go. I think I think first time 1400, first up for her as well, which I think will suit. Um so interesting to see what price she'll be. I think she'll be in the market, but um, you should get a reasonable price, I'd imagine four or five dollars, hopefully.

SPEAKER_01 25:51

Right, Ray Three, you had pretty strong opinions in this race, and I'm willing to go against you. What are you thinking?

SPEAKER_00 25:56

Yeah, look, I I think Satono Glow is gonna come up a pretty reasonable favourite here. Um look, I I I'm I'm pretty much against that horse. Obviously not spot obvious, but if it comes out and wins. Um small question marks. You might know some more after your horse runs in the furniture and see how that goes. But small question marks on the form out of that Flemington race. Um they went to the fence and uh it was a bit of a wishy-washy sort of race for mine, not sure about the form. Definite concerns out of its Warwick farm form. It's first up win. The horses that are run second and third behind have then gone on to run awful since. Um so I think it I think at the price I want to look outside it. Now the top weight medicinal um trolled enormous. When the races won, I believe, had a troll the same day, overpass troll and run faster last 600 in the troll than overpass. And he's going around in a well, he went around obviously in a TJ Smith last week run well, and he was well pressed out in that troll. So I do like the two-year-olds, whether it be racing or trolls, it can run competitive times or similar tiles times, if not better times than the older horses, which that horse has done. Tricky from the barrier, um, and obviously the set weights and penalties will carry will carry the 57 tot weight. But one on one I'm real keen on that I found was a horse called reaching out of gay water houses. Uh one run at the Kensington track for a win, has drawn well, doesn't get a penalty for this race, so 55 kilo on its back, which most of them do have anyway, so it's not really a weight advantage, other than the top two um horses carrying 57. Drawn well, goes forward, went through the line at Kensington over 1100, run the fastest last 600 of the day, only comparing to 1150 metre races, but still against you know, comparing against older horses. And geez, it had a really nice action, and it's actually top of the straight, its wheels really started spinning, and it didn't really know until about the furlong how to really bog down and let down. Geez, it went through the liner, but no concerns at all with 1200. And I am really keen, and I think that's going to be one of my best bets of the day.

SPEAKER_01 28:13

Yep. Um, I am going with the favourite in this one. I I don't have as much of a query on that on that Flemington race form. I think Gin Twist looked a pretty smart Philly the start before, didn't beat much, you know, Lar Gitana and and you know uh Jadzia and some of those horses that you know were sprooked early two-year-olds and haven't really done much since. But um yeah, I I think she won very impressively down there. And I yeah, I think the Melbourne form, and you know, a similar reason as to Winepick and Solan in that in that mile race is I think the Melbourne two-year-old form has been better than the Sydney two-year-old form for the most part. Um, you know, a lot of them have come up here, you know, Stratton Rulers came up and put a gap on Hydrix and and the likes of them. So um, yeah, I'm gonna trust what my eye sees with Satono Glow as well. Um, it's gonna be on top. I I looked at that reaching out, I I wasn't as um sure. Obviously, I don't really look at at times and all that sort of thing. I'm not really a times guy. I'm also you know what what I see is you know what I base my form around. But you know, you you're saying there's form queries. I think I think Satono Glow is coming out of a stronger form race than a Kensington 1100 metre race. So um yeah, I'm I'm going with Satono Glow on top. Um and there should be enough speed in this race, you know, medicinal um reaching out like they'll draw a more yeah, that they'll go forward and set a strong enough tombow for for her to to hopefully come over the top late. Uh we're gonna go skip the midway. We're gonna go to race five, which is I know the Oaks. Okay, that's just after summer on top for me. Who's on top out of your two profoundly?

SPEAKER_00 29:59

Um you're making me pick between my children, eh? Um, I'll have after summer on top.

SPEAKER_01 30:12

Yeah, yeah, right. So we're aligned there. The uh Arrowfield stud stakes. I think this Philly is potentially the best sprinter in the country already. I think she needs to prove herself. I think she would have won the TJ last week um if she went there, and I think this is you know as much of a good thing as you get on the day. Uh, and that'll be tempted for mine.

SPEAKER_00 30:37

Yeah, love her. Barrier eight. Don't see too much of an issue with it because I I prefer to see her 3D with a little bit of cover. Obviously, you don't want a bad run from Aiden. Four, I would have been much happier with four, but I'm not all that concerned. Just the way she traveled on top of a decent speed and get like Chad doesn't let her go until the top of the rise. And she's just got a devastating turn of foot. She was good enough to win four round her last uh I think it's been five weeks now, freshened up back to the 1200. Too good. I just like to look Maherna drawing 10. Gee, she's how good's Maherna going, she's flying. I would have liked to see her draw a barrier. Yeah, um, she's definitely gonna be in the race. Ten makes it a little bit hard for her. And going back to the inside draw thing, Devil Knight. I'm not sure what price he's gonna be. We've got price yet for that, yeah. I think it'd be a reasonable price, Devil Knight. I think he's going too bad. He could be the one to get the sneaky up the fence from barrier one and run well.

SPEAKER_01 31:36

I yeah, I think she puts a gap in him in all honesty. Back to the round of 1200. She finished second by a length to Kaying Rising last time. She followed this sort of similar prep, you know, over the 1400 back to 1200. Um, Randwick loves it. Um, yeah, I think I I think she puts a bit of a gap in him. Like restricted company. I I'm I'm filthy she didn't go to a TJ.

SPEAKER_00 31:56

Well, no one cheered harder than us when uh the cult run last last week because we're pretty dirty on Condolphin for taking him and not taking her. Yep, particularly that we had a little ticket a little earlier, post-ticket on her. But um yeah, I thought she would have been real competitive last week.

SPEAKER_01 32:11

And you know, no one had a better day than me when uh Mahoon got up last start. I I still don't know how she managed to win that. I think she's a handy filly, but again, you're looking at handy fillies and good three-year-olds. Yeah, it might be Rose Hill horse as well. You're looking here at handy fillies and colts. Yep. Handy fillies and colts compared to a genuine open age star. Yeah, no, I've got to. So I think I think she she puts a little bit of a gap on it.

SPEAKER_00 32:37

Could well have could could she could stamp herself as a best friend in the country.

SPEAKER_01 32:40

Yep, I I think she is. Um obviously you Jolly Starr deserves a title right now based on what she's done, but if if tempted at a run last week, I think we'd be having a different conversation. May well, may well. Um Ray seven, River of Stars on top in the Sydney Cup.

SPEAKER_00 32:57

Uh you're going River of Stars?

SPEAKER_01 32:59

I'm going with River of Stars on top, yep.

SPEAKER_00 33:01

Well, I'll go I'll have to go the other way this time, then I'll I'll I'll go I'll stick with new look. Rachel King, she done it for me last week, but yeah, River of Stars, class 4 is very hard to boot.

SPEAKER_01 33:10

Yep. Um race eight, I've got Idol Flyer on top. That is the Queen of the Turf, which you talked about.

SPEAKER_00 33:15

I'm pretty keen on Lady Shendar.

SPEAKER_01 33:17

Yep. Um the oh race nine, Autumn Glow. Don't need to extend on that. The last race, race ten. I think I don't know what price point she's gonna come up at. She could be very short, she could be odds on, honestly. I was thinking um about making her my best of the day, but then um I've I've gone elsewhere. Uh that's gonna be gangster granny in the last for mine. I think she was awesome. Soft six, she gets back on top of the ground this start. Uh, I don't think she likes the wet all that much. She's seven starts on a good track for five wins and two thirds. Um, yeah, she's she's a class horse in the race. J Mac factor as well. Um, yeah, I think she's flying this time in. She was very brave last start. I I think this is her race, and um, I'm very confident.

SPEAKER_00 34:04

She's tough as they come. Another one that can't draw a barrier, even first up. I think when she won, she drew wide, had to go forward, do a little bit of work. Um, you're right about the wet tracks. I think she's five from seven on a good track. Yep. One that we've followed, obviously, since um she was beaten by Autumn Glow a few preparations ago. She's a good tough man. Barrier 13, always a concern, but yeah, I I'd have to be with her also.

SPEAKER_01 34:25

Yep. Alright, best of the day anywhere. I'm, you know, I've I'm putting in a a little two-legg multi here is my best of the day, because I don't want to tip a$1.70 or$1.40, so I'm just going bang both of them together. I think they're good things.$2.38 you get if you put Tempted and Autumn Glow together, put in and get out.

SPEAKER_00 34:43

Yeah, well, look, I think um all the astute judges and the uh the the big punters would say you're a lunatic. Um but I've sort of got to agree with you. It's I think I put it this way, I know you're a little bit different, but I'd rather be taking the$2.50 for Tempted and Autumn Glow to win than than Oh pay at$2.50. Yeah. So I'm the same. Again, it was like the she's alibi. I I'm not a genius, but I've taken Tempted and Autumn Glow into reaching out, and I was I was lucky enough to get six dollars about that horse last night, so I'm just using them as an odds boost. Reaching out's reaching out's my other my other one.

SPEAKER_01 35:25

Yep. Yeah, I I think um, you know, if I had to just give you a single bet outside of those two in tempted and autumn glow, I think um Gangster Grainy would probably be my best of the day. But I I just think and the way I'll be playing the the day is Tempted and Autumn Glow both get up and having a good day.

SPEAKER_00 35:45

Yeah, yeah, because yeah, I'll be just using them as odds boost in the others. We have a little quick chat about about last week, a couple that just a couple that I think we can put in the in the in the black book. Yep. Obviously profoundly we talked about um we were looking for something to s to to to come out and put its put its hoof up, so to speak, and and and and she done that. The Kultner first. Now yours is very unlucky. Blue Door. Yep. What's a troll? Troll enormous. There's a world that says obviously you miss a start by two, you get beaten half a length, that you're unlucky and probably shouldn't won. I'm not here to say uh uh would or or or wouldn't have, but geez, I couldn't have been more impressed with Blue Door at trolled enormous. I know your what's the next episode. The next episode. Shout out to Stock did it, did end up getting a good run through them. Obviously, miss it a long way. Did end up getting a good run through them and let down really good and looked at the f at the 100 like it was gonna go straight past Blue Door, but I tell you what, and something I've told you to look at also, is past the line and through the line. Blue Door, I think the further they went, I think the further Blue Door was going to win by. Now I'm not sure what's coming up. I think there's a 1200 metre group two race in in Brisbane, doomed and cut day. But I think that's still about five weeks away. I'm not sure what the stop gap is before that or whether they even put the horse away, as you know, uh you know, a week or two is a long time for these two-year-olds. But geez, I'm I'm really keen to follow that horse towards potentially a JJ Atkins, even. No, I don't know about the miles, probably. I'm not sure. JJ's a mile, isn't it? Yep. Yeah, no, no, I'd there'd be a build there'd be a lead-up race over 1400, maybe. Yeah, there is, there is. Um, but I was sort of more looking at sort of sticking to those 1200s. I just think that on speed travels well. I I'm not saying 14 would be out of the wheelhouse, there might be a 14 for it. I I don't know. Geez, if it runs 1600, it's gonna end up very good. Um, I think for now, and each sectional times were were great. Um you look at Jolly Star, Jolly Star ran home in 3426, or that race run home in 3426, a group one older horses. There's an argument to say that the track may have deteriorated even though it wasn't downgraded. Blue door on the second fastest last 600 of the day, up on sat up outside the speed, hit the front early, was left as a sitting duck, and run 3431 just to tick outside that. So that's that that that to me is a quality horse and and didn't fall over the line. Yeah, it actually went through the line. So look, I'm I'm really happy to follow that. Um obviously campion with it with a bit of time at this one we're gonna follow as well. A lot of people are bagging Jimmy Starr about his run the other day, saying he's had two poor poor runs. I want to be on him going into is the old age. Yeah, I think you'd be hard to get away. He got pole axed out of the barriers. We spoke about how hard it is to, especially on those sticky grounds, give good horses a start and and uh and run them down, and they run home in good time, last 600. He came from a long way off and he was the widest runner. Take away she's out of boy, no other horse. Yeah, on the day. His run was as good as anything on the day under those external sensors.

SPEAKER_01 39:03

Yeah, I thought he finished off nicely. I think 1400 suits him too. I think he's probably he's probably gonna be a come up favourite for that race.

SPEAKER_00 39:10

He's definitely, I think, I think he's not far off the mark. And as you stated before, he he was an aim to say he was the best friend in the country last well, uh last last preparation. So I think he could be back to to near his best coming into that race.

SPEAKER_01 39:22

Yeah, and I think you know, seven starts at 1200, he's only won one. Yeah, so 1400 is his go. Um, so yeah, I think I'll be following him in into the null age.

SPEAKER_00 39:31

I sent you a message straight after the race, and I also sent his trainer Trent Edmonds a message um who seemed to be extremely excited. I didn't even have a bet in the race, so I just it just caught my eye. Extra galactic. Oh, yeah, yeah. In Courtfield. Yeah. Drew White got back, got to the outside, and geez it finished off as good as anything I've seen for a while. It was in a restricted race, but but certainly one to follow through the grades, and that there might be whether it's he's a he's a well he's a Sydney boy, but he's obviously trained with his old man in the Gold Coast, so he spent a lot of time in Brisbane or in Queensland, I should say. So that there might be something. There's a listed race or a group three race, I think, down in the weights for that horse. Yep. It was it was a phenomenal win. Yeah, it was a good win. And I think it's one to follow, also. Yep.

SPEAKER_01 40:19

Alright. That'll wrap us up for today. Hopefully, a few more winners this weekend. Hopefully, you maintain your form and hopefully I um well maintain my group one form and pick up on the rest. Um, but yeah, happy punting. Good luck, funners. Good luck.