Tie in

THE TIP SHEET; All aged stakes day preview

jacob

Use Left/Right to seek, Home/End to jump to start or end. Hold shift to jump forward or backward.

0:00 | 28:01

We preview all aged stakes day , with our G1 staking plans and best bets on the card

IG - Jacobtyson__

SPEAKER_00

Welcome back to the tip sheet previewing all age stakes day at Randwick. And we've also got a huge prize money race over at Ascot to Preview. Won't be going through our full card today, just doing the group ones, but I'm joined as always by Brad Tyson. Welcome back.

SPEAKER_01

Thank you, mate. Good to be here. A little bit unwell, as you know, but probably not as unwell as I was uh when Autumn Glow got the wobbles at the furlong last week. But anyway.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, it's uh not a not a terrible week's punting. Probably one where you come out of it and you're just a little bit more flat because your favourite favourite ones got beat, but I had a little bit of joy on the weekend. We'll talk about the weekend's racing. Um we will start off with Autumn Glow. Do you think they'll ever go back to the well with the 2000? I've got some pretty strong thoughts on this.

SPEAKER_01

Well, I think he's he's made his bed with his comments, Chris. Yeah. Post-race. Um I think a little bit harsh. Maybe we all got swept up. Um I was the same opinion as Jockin' Trainer. I thought she'd have no problem running 2,000 metres, and if she done so, she would be way too good. But they nearly run a track record time. Chris is a pattern guy. That's something he's never done before, is go 1400 to a mile, 1500, then three weeks back to 2,000 metres. Yeah. So I don't think she mapped to have the exact the perfect preparation for that sort of run race. But she got beat so very deflating, so everyone's gonna um look for excuses or or try and find answers. Uh to you back to your question, Dave. Go back to 2000, 2000 metres again. I'd like to see them do it, but I don't think they will.

SPEAKER_00

I think John Masara will be sitting there going, told you so, told you so, told you so, and I'm sitting here thinking, like, what are we talking about? She got beat two lengths, Sir Delius. Let's not take anything away from the winner. He's a superstar. He was a two-dollar favourite for a Melbourne Cup in fucking pre-post markets at one point. He was like, what,$1.90 for a Cox plate against Via Sistina? Like he is a he is a very, very good horse, Sir Delius. Like you said, 14, 16, 15, three weeks between run back to 2000, not an ideal setup. First time to the trip, they went stupid quick. It was a super high pressuration. She actually, I thought she loomed up and then she just fell the pinch in that final furlong. J Max said similar and that she stuck to her guns and all that sort of thing. I didn't think Chris had any reason to put that statement out after saying that he got a distance range wrong and sending out apologies. He has no reason to apologize. It was very weird. Um I think if they get her preparation right, she 100% could go to a cox plate and and still win the race. I I think if she has that sort of appropriate sort of build-up, she goes the you know the winks via Sistina prep type into a cox plate. I think she can still very much win that race.

SPEAKER_01

Um, but I don't think they'll do it now, unfortunately. And the unfortunate part about that is as well, you can't win that distance, and you're not winning those majors, cox plates, yeah, and the like, your QE2s, then she's never going to elevate to that superstar. Superstar. Yeah. She can towel them up over a mile all preparation next prep and be a very, very horseful.

SPEAKER_00

And that's the issue, is John Masara came out on record saying that he doesn't think she'll run the 2000. John Masara was saying he doesn't want to go to a Queen Elizabeth and he's doing all these things, very anti her going 2000, talking about her breeding and all that sort of thing. And I think the fact that now that it she's been beaten for the first time, they'll probably go, nah, can't do it now.

SPEAKER_01

But like Yeah, I don't think he was so negative against it. I think he was unsure. There was very there was a lot of stuff. He never came out and and categorically said, I don't think she'll run 2000 or or or I don't want to go to the QE2. He just had his doubts, which is fair enough, and and and those doubts have to arise. Um, but he's also John very smart man, he's been racing. Yes, very racing a very, very long time. So I don't think he's gonna hold any harsh feelings towards J Mack and Chris. He understands how things work, then you know, with that in mind, maybe there's a world where she goes to 2000 again, but geez, after I think the statement, like I said, I think that's made his better life.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, a little bit. The other thing that I want to talk about, Autumn Glow, I saw a a power rankings post the other day where they dropped her down to third. They had she's alibi best, Sir Delius second, and her as the third best horse in the country. I looked at that and went, what are we talking about? Like she is still outright the best. She beat Serdelius twice in the lead-ups, and the reasoning that they said that Sir Delius jumped and she's alibi jumped Autumn Glow, pushing her down to the third best horse in the country. I think that's ridiculous, is because the Queen Elizabeth was was the grand final and Ser Delius won it. Okay, sure. I thought it was a little I didn't think it was Autumn Glow's grand final. I didn't think she was prepped up perfectly for it. And even Corey Brown was talking about it later. She didn't look a hundred percent in the yard pre-race. Like it didn't, it wasn't like you know, it wasn't like the whole time we're going, she's going to a Queen Elizabeth. There were talks of her going to the Queen of the Turf after the George Ryder. The George Rider was very much the race that they had circled, and they just sort of went, okay, where do we go here?

SPEAKER_01

Like Yeah, but it's hindsight, see? So hindsight and and I mean pre-race, there was no way most people, some came out, not very many, that that there was a world where she got beat. And in those circumstances, especially the good ones, and it's people wanting to compare to Winx and things like that. Like she's a bit of an anomaly, but the real good superstars get it done, but she didn't get it done, unfortunately. So now everyone's everyone's sort of looking for answers. Um it is what it is. She just um I'm not convinced, she doesn't make it 2000, but I think that's I I still think that um herself and Sir Delius are probably he's probably stamped himself again because there was his last preparation he was he was beating the likes of East Dina, Buckaroo's um Alianas, he's done it. He he probably has stamped himself. That was the grand final as a highly rated race. He probably has now stamped himself as a premier 2,000 metre weight for H horse. Does that mean he's the best horse in the country? Potentially, potentially it does. Um but the the she's alibi stuff, we're people are talking on potential there.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, 100%.

SPEAKER_01

Autumn Glow before Saturday was potentially the next week. She's not anymore. She's alibi has now got to break through that barrier. Yeah. So I I wouldn't, I wouldn't, I would have she's alibi third.

SPEAKER_00

Yes, I think 100% Sir Delius or Autumn Glow are the best two in the country. Because Sir Delius won the Queen Elizabeth, I'll hear it that that he was the better, and you know, he was super on the day. Like you take nothing away from him that day anyway. We'll move on to um tempted. We said last week that she could potentially be the best sprinter in the country. You're a little bit down on her race after immediately after the fact. I wasn't I I thought she she ran well. Um what what did we think post the Arafield?

SPEAKER_01

I think I said when they went past the post, I hold her in high regard as do you, but I thought she might put them away a bit more. I think that lasted about 38 seconds, and then I looked at the time that they were on 108, home in 33-3.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

And then I I renewed I'd I moonwalk like Michael Jackson. They just they just can't go any faster than that and where she came from. But the ride was good from Chad, but yeah, she was she was she was brilliant. She didn't show me that arrogance of come up the rise on the bridle like she has before, which is what I sort of was expecting. And when she didn't, I went, Oh, she's under a little bit of pressure here, but the times tell the tale. That's exactly why she was under the pressure. Yeah, you can't be on the bridal coming up the rise going that easy when you're running home and you suffer.

SPEAKER_00

Yes, yeah, exactly.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, superstar, super effort. Was she won the TJ? Not sure, but G she's a given shake.

SPEAKER_00

I still think the answer to that would be a yes. I thought from the two to the one, she was exceptional. Well, that's why she does it. She just went bang, and um, yeah, then the the race was done. Chad sort of eased up in that final hundred, and she was home by about a length too. Devil Knight, who you spoke about pre-race. He ran good. He's he's in pretty good form, that horse. Yeah, the defense was fine to be on. He he he he's run a couple of good races now. Devil Knight, he's one to keep an eye on there, and um forgot who ran into third, but another one who's sort of in in really good form as well. So um then the last one I want to talk about. My mare, Idle Flyer, is she a potential sort of wait for age horse?

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, well that probably um differentiated our two days, wasn't it? Because Lady Shenandoah wins for me, it's probably not too bad for me with tempted Lady Shenandoah. Yeah. Um and also uh Lord of Biscay, very good win, but anyway, I'll rent it back to um Otterfly. Um yeah, she's a strange races when Pride of Jenny's in the race.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

I think I feel sorry for Lady Shenandoah, she she done all the hard yards. There's a world to say I I'm I'm on team Lady Shenandoah, there's a world to say you swap the runs, you swap the results. Um nothing away from Autoflyer. Um yeah, I'm interested to see how she goes. I'm not I'm not convinced yet. She got the favours on the weekend. I'm not a hundred percent convinced. I think if we're talking about a pride of genie that's not going as good as she was, and I think we're talking about a Lady Shenandoah towards the end of her preparation. That while I think she got the mole, no problem. She she done all the hard yards, so um I know you're gonna have a very different opinion there.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, I I've been backing her for a long time, so maybe a little bit biased. And I did say that coming into the race. My two mayors, Odil Fly, Treasure the Moment. I thought they they got the right setup in this race. Um, and I wanted to be on both of them. Treasure the Moment loomed up, but I just I I just think I'm I'm I'm just not yeah, I I just can't back her in those elite races anymore. I think after the MEMSY was where the damage was done because she was still six dollars in that MEMSY and I had one of the great days all time when she won that race. Um but since then, you know, I don't think the collects step back's an excuse. I just think she's not that elite, elite type of horse, and um I I think she, you know, she loomed up in that race and she was just outsprinted by two quality mares in Lady Shenandoah and Oldle Flyer. I think when it comes to Pride of Jenny races, take out the horse that's cut and the rest of them up, which is Lady Shenandoah, which she put in a super race. I thought she's definitely going to be one to follow at the mile and in these sorts in these type of races. Potentially an Empire Rose mare in in the spring. But um I I thought you don't really get the favours, it's just more about who's the strongest at the end because it it is a truly run race whenever Pyta Jenny. And she went quick, like that was one of the quickest like to the 600s that that she's produced in that race. And I just thought Idlefly was the strongest mare at the end of that at the end of that race, and you know, take out Lady Shenandoah, she was by far the best mare in the race as well. So um, yeah, I think I I think I'm willing to follow her into that into that next next grade. Um jumping out of restricted company. Anyway, Randwick, let's go talk about it. Uh Rail's out seven metres now uh from the thousand to the wingpost, and it's five metres out the remainder. Uh conditions. Currently it's still five, which surprised me. Um they that's what was put up on the thing. So yes, so two on the surface. Slight chance of showers the night before, but I think it should be a good four because it's you know sunny most of the way up to the races, so I I've done my form for a good four. Champagne stakes. Where are you looking here?

SPEAKER_01

Uh well yeah, looking at the track, and a lot of the the the form analysts will tell you rail all the way out generally favours um on pace. Although for memory, I I think if we look back to a race like the TJ last year, sorry, not the TJ, the all-age, the Jimmy Starr and and um Jolie Star come from off them. So um it'd be interesting to see, probably a hard one to play, but obviously we're looking barriers here. I I was I was huming and hiring about Campion Italia, um, but drawn well in four. There will there will there doesn't have to be huge speed in the race, but there will be uh T Rells going to the mall the first time. Um I've gone I've I've leant right back into him. Um and also we spoke about MI Dreaming was a great run the other day, and you know another one that we've sort of followed followed through. Um force he's drawn a bit wide, I thought he needed to get a suck run, but I'm hoping he goes forward on it, puts him in puts him in the race. He might be able to land one-one stricky, but even if he lands outside the leader outside the leader, he's a big, big, uh, strong, long striding horse. It'll appreciate a bit of room. So look for that for that race, he's a big price. I've already had something on him at$51. I'm not sure what he'll be now when the markets reopen after the barrier draw, M I Dream, probably blowout, which is what happens when you take pre-post. But anyway, uh my staking plan for the champagne stakes will be eight of the win on Campioni d'Italia, and I'll also be having ten dollars each way on MI Dreaming at a very juicy price.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, I had similar sort of I guess you could say reservations around taking the like near enough on odds on like$2.10 Campion d'Italia. I think he is in the pre-post markets, which is toxic as.

SPEAKER_01

No, I've seen I've seen better than that. I I think we should get six to four.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, well, even then, but um, yeah, the the size has produced 27 of the last 36 winners. He was by far the best horse in the race, and I I can't see anything turning the tables on him, so um yeah, he he's got to go on top. But there is two horses I want to follow out of that fernhill, and if you look back at the winners list of the Fernhill mile, Tom Kitten, broadsiding, you know, there's some good horses that come out of that.

SPEAKER_01

Well, they're the ones that have gone, they've had the mole run there.

SPEAKER_00

Yep. I like the quick backup. Yep, I like the fact that they've you know been tried at the mile. And there's two horses, one that I tipped in that race last week, and the other one is Am I Dreaming that I want to be on? Am I dreaming? He was you know, just had no room at all. Very unlucky, certainly should have run a place. Um, you know, he just had no Jason Coll had nowhere to go on him, and um, yeah, I think he's gonna really appreciate the mile and and the quick backup and all these sorts of things. And the other one, Salan, I thought she was huge from back in the field in that race. Um flew home, probably peaked on her run at about the hundred, but that was you know, a couple weeks between runs, 12 to the 16. It probably um, you know, it it probably yeah, it it was you know the reason why you weren't as keen on it as I was. I just wanted to trust my eye, and I think I'm gonna trust my eye again. I think she'll be fitter for that on the quick backup, gets weight relief from the rest of them as well. She carried 56 and a half in that race, now carrying 54 and a half. Um, I think she's one that's you know, in the pre-post markets was a little bit um like about 15,$15,$21, something like that. Yeah, she was pretty she was pretty big. So um I'll be having 10 each way on Solan, I'll be having 10 each way on Am I Dreaming, and I'll just be having 60 to cover my losses of Campion d'Italia wins. So um the all-age stakes, where have you gone here?

SPEAKER_01

Well, pretty good race. A few of my old favourites in there, including Fangirl. Uh probably Fangirl been beating up on stayers resuming when she does resume at 1400 of recent times. Um drawing drawing barrier eight. I'd be happy to see her win, but I I think she's people are saying she's over the odds with the class factor, which I can get that point, but I think she's probably under the odds considering the time that she's had off. I think she has troll sensations. Um drawing eight, and she's there's some good horses in this. Um I think a couple of weeks ago put down Jimmy Starr as as one to follow. Um he's drawing wide now and he's gonna get back. I'm a little bit I'm a little bit concerned with the rail out where it is. Like I said, I'm I I think we're gonna need to be up and in in run. So I I've probably I've learned to um I'm gonna go gig a kick. One try. I I'm not I I'm sure he he handles the wet very well, but I don't think he's a wet tracker. You know, he's got he's got very good form on a good track, he's one from one at the tracking distance, albeit that was on a heavy track, but you know he'll run a strong 1400. He's airborne, yeah. He's fourth up, he's had he's the one out of all these horses, I think, that has had the perfect preparation. He's he's drawn well. Um and uh one that I've never really been on, but I'm gonna mount a case for is Angel Capital. I think his last two runs have been enormous. He's had no luck, he's he he he finds trouble. He seems to do if he doesn't do things wrong himself, he seems to find trouble in in the run through no fault of his own, like he did last. Should have won the new market. He probably should have won his last two, to be honest. Um back to the 1402 team as well. Yeah. Um probably after typically asked for the last two weeks, he'll just come out and blow them away this weekend and make us all look stupid. Um, but yeah, look, great race. Uh really hard, really hard one. But I'm gonna I'll I'll be my my staking plan for the all-age will be I'm gonna have 50 on gigakick. I think we'll get a reasonable price, six or seven dollars. Yep. And it should be double figures, I think, or close enough to at Angel Capital. So I'll go 25 each way, Angel Capital.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, I immediately scratched a couple of horses off this with the barriers. Jimmy Starr, I wanted to probably be with him, but then Sean White, I just yeah, I I can't do it. Um, and I think you know, I thought Giggy Kick was a better run in that race. I was on Gigikick and the TJ, and I thought it was huge. And like we said last week, do not disrespect Jolly Star form because she is a she is a star. Um yes, yep, correct. Um you know one that you know I'll say my staking plan in a second, but one that I wanted to have for exotics was half yours, resuming the Melbourne Cup, interesting. The Melbourne Cup winner resuming here. Um pretty sure drawn well barrier five, perfect. 1400 two starts, hasn't missed a quinella. First up flies, hasn't missed a Quinella. Umfties at Ballarat, though, but anyway, yes, I don't, but I watched a 1500 metre start towards the start of last prep. I think it was second up or a fresh and up from the Queensland Winter Carnival rather, so technically sort of um deep and all prep, but was fresh and right up for it. Um Leader Bias that day, he was cast right out the back and flew home to finish, I think, fourth uh in that race. Um, you know, finishing off with the likes of Strath Tay and the Stadio Mastala, and like it's not great for him, but you know, he's an improved horse from then. I like that first up, and I good we spoke about it the other day, good stayers resuming good good stayers resuming. They'll be right up. So he's one that I want to have probably in exotics, um, and he'll be a decent enough price. Um, but my staking plan is going to be all on the one horse, gear kick. Um, yeah, I I I think he is a really good horse. Fourth, fourth up, three starts, two wins. He's won an all age before. Um he was flying.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, the journey's no drama.

SPEAKER_00

He's unbeaten. He he's drawn well. He's yeah, I I just think he's airborne at the moment. So staking plan,$100 straight up on gig kick. I'm very confident. Um, let's go over to Perth for the first time this year for the Quokka. What are you looking at?

SPEAKER_01

Jolie Starr, she is a star, as you said, Jacob form. And I'll never say he's what is it? Cabal, I'll never say he's not. Cabalus. Oh cabalus. Cabalus. Cabalus. Second Jolie Starr, first up, I believe on a slow track, and then wins a new market on a good track. Two starts, I think, for memory. I better fact check this. Um, but off the top of my head, two stars, and I bet Ascot won't be out. No, it's not out yet.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

Two starts on dry track. Yeah. When he absolutely towered them up by about 50 lengths in Queensland, jumped, led, let down, and let rip, and also done the same thing in the new market. Yes, there was a an obvious advantage, an on-speed advantage today he won the new market, but that's still a new market. He's$4.20. You got a horse like Ray McNiro, I don't want to bag because he's one of mine, but I'm not backing Ray McNiro against Jolie Star in the new market. Um, also the other horse you brought up, Jigsaw, is is is airborne. I just think the form lines of cabalus are better. He shows great promise early on in his career. Probably just lacked a little bit of strength, but I think this is his preparation, his time to shine. Obviously, I need to travel well. Um, but for the quaker, I am, and it will be my best of the day, also. Uh, I'll be having a hundred to win on a cabalus and cheering.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, I'm looking to take on cabalas in this race. Of course you are. Um, I'm gonna get out of the casino with this haul. Because I backed him in that new market at 20 to 1 and had a good little day off the back of that. Um, I just think potentially from barrier 10, Kabalus, and Jigsaw Barrier 13, they could undo each other a little bit here. I wanted to go to horses at a proven travelers and have won good races overseas, or you know, in in in Perth as well.

SPEAKER_01

No so he's in between here and Perth.

SPEAKER_00

Yep, correct. Um, good travellers is is where I'm going. I understand. Um Jigsaw, he's airborne, he's been one of mine. I've I've had some very good days off the back of him winning. Um, so I've got to have him involved somehow. Barrier 13 is not ideal. Um, like I said, him and Kabars could undo each other a little bit, but I just think he's a quality horse. He's gone to New Zealand and won a group one over there. He's he's been well travelled uh this last sort of two preparations.

SPEAKER_01

I just think he just keep looked tired last prep last start, did he?

SPEAKER_00

Look, I'm yeah, he didn't look tired last start, and he's got six or seven wins in a row now. Yeah, you just winning form. You just keep backing. I can't, in good conscience, come off him now because I backed him in that first start at Cranberg at like 11-1. But the next start he was 20 to 1 at Mooney Valley, backed him there, so I'm just gonna keep following him. Um but the one that I wanted on top, barrier five, Willie Pike, won the gold rush beating over pass in Western Australia, which you know what that form sort of lines up as. Um Ray Magnerio gets a sit off him and could just get the last crack at those two leaders. So I'll my staking plan, I'm going$60 Ray Magnerio, and I'm going$40 on Jigsaw.

SPEAKER_01

I'll be dirty if Ray wins, because he is one of mine. Yeah. I just I just think just going back to that jolly star form. So, but yeah, I look, I can see a world where he wins. Yeah. I don't know. I don't know pretty much anything, to be honest. Especially after last week's fucking getting dollar thirty favourites.

SPEAKER_00

Um the hallmark, it's a pretty good race. Um, did want to do a hundred dollar staking plan for it.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah. Yeah, I'd be up for that. Um pretty simply. You said to me you thought he would come up with Odzon Private Eye. I wasn't so sure about Odzon. I thought he'd be I thought he'd be the favourite and deserves to be the quality horse in the race. Um and also another one of mine, Ostraka. It was good first up on the wet track. I don't think he he loves it. His second half form is good, his Ramwick perform is also very good. He's drawn well. I'm hoping they ride a bit more positive, which they can. He has been ridden positive in time, and he'll be right up behind him. The only concern I would say with private eye is what does Nash do from Elite Barrier 10 who's drawn out wide? But we've seen him before from wide barriers just dancing straight up front. So uh my staking plan for that race would be 50 on private eye and 50 on Ostraka, who I think he'll be close enough to double figures Ostraka. Yeah, I'm hoping anyway, but I'm not a bookmaker, so that's guesswork.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah. Uh private eye. I looked all the way through this race earlier, and I looked down the bottom. Mal Coop is one of mine, but it's a big step up in class for him. Um, I thought he was super unlucky behind Roslin Star and Gangster Granny last start. Again, Jason Collett, and he makes me nervous being on Salon from Barrier One. He's just been running up asses all autumn. He did have a 60 to 1 winner in the Sydney Cup, but it is a Sydney Cup cross race.

SPEAKER_01

He let all the way, didn't have to go through them in that.

SPEAKER_00

Yep. So um, yeah, I I think gets Winona Constant back on uh Winona Coston back on board, seven starts, hasn't missed the Quinella with her. Um I think he'd probably prefer it wet though, especially in this type of a grade. So I've just gone back, I just keep going back to the top of the page, and that's going to be private eye. Uh my staking plan would be$100 straight up on him.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, interesting to see how Joker's Grin goes. Obviously, very good horse over over in Perth, but his form past 1100 isn't really good. Is he just a thousand metre horse? Can Chris get something more out of him? I don't know. He could he's got the quality to to blow them away, but his 1200 metre form concerns me.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, and just you know, I I didn't think he was all that good in that race when he finally got a bit tested by Overpass and Libertad and all that. Like he's been beaten a length of the half by Libertad. I know overpass is in that form as well, but geez, I didn't think he was that good in that race. Um he had every chance and just didn't make up any ground. So I'll be against Joker's grid in that race. Um I've only got one other tip for the rest of the day, and that's going to be my best of the day anyway. Uh race six, the JRA plate over 2,000 metres. Travolta coming back to 2000. Four starts there, two wins and a third. Finally draws a gate. He's bitten well, it's a different sort of, it's not your Ather Baskins, and it's not your Mr. Monica. Yeah. Draws barrier 14 and 13 the last two starts, gets right back, flies home. I think this time drawing barrier six. I think J Mac will be on. There's no official jockey bookings out now, but J Mac typically rides um 56 and a half kilos. Travolta drawn well. I think I think uh Chris will book J Mac for this horse. And um yeah, I I just think he's gonna be my best of the day. I think you'll get a decent price about him as well, maybe in that four to five dollar range. That'll work. Yep. So I'm all over Travolta in that race. Is there anything else that you've got or are we all done?

SPEAKER_01

No, just what a um what a difference seven days makes in racing. On top of the world two weeks ago, and then getting dollar thirty favourite speed last week. Yep. That's why we love it. That's why we love it.

SPEAKER_00

Hopefully a little bounce back this week. All right, thanks for listening. Join us next week.