Racers Odds
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Racers Odds
Kansas Preview: Will RFK Be A Dark Horse This Weekend?
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David Styles and Andrew Kurland preview Kansas, covering:
- Can Alex Bowman return to his winning form?
- Why to stay away from betting Ty Gibbs this weekend
- Are the Toyota's the teams to beat?
- Can Larson finally break his 32-race winless streak?
Welcome to Racers Odds. I'm David Stiles, joined by Andrew Curland. We have our fifth race winner of the season as Ty Gibbs captures his first win of his career. It took him 131 starts, but he is finally on the list as a Cup Series winner. And Andrew, we both were at Bristol. It was what I thought a great race with a pretty compelling finish. And now we get ready to move to Kansas.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, no, 100%, David. And Ty Gibbs, if you would have said to me in the middle of the race that Ty Gibbs was going to be the winner, I would have been surprised. But both of us before the race said that Ty Gibbs could get his first career win. That was what we talked about last week on Racers Odd. So uh he took an interesting path, I feel like, to get to Victory Lane. But uh nonetheless, a win's a win, and um it's obviously uh uh something to follow because once you start winning, once you learn how to do that, that can snowball pretty fast.
SPEAKER_01Well, Kyle Larson was the bell of the ball, but he turned into a pumpkin and he didn't get to be Cinderella at the end of the show. He led more than 200-something laps, looked untouchable, won both of the stages, but it just didn't pan out for him. I think you had him on pit road and said that their car ended up getting out of shape and it just didn't turn into a victory for them.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, he was fighting loose most of the day, and then that last run was just getting tight. But really, Ryan Blaney was the one who actually had the long run speed and had the speed. Uh, I think Kyle Larson, at least this was Kyle's analysis of it, is we led a lot of laps because Blaney's pit crew, you know, mired him back in traffic. He would have led more had they been a little bit faster on pit road and and had better track position. So um nonetheless, a dominant day for Kyle Larson, dominant for Ryan Blaney. Both of them uh certainly had speed. They still came away with solid points days, but um to win these cup races, it's it comes down to execution. And those teams didn't execute like Ty Gibbs' team did.
SPEAKER_01And you talk about winning. You were two for four on bets last week.
SPEAKER_00All right.
SPEAKER_01So you definitely cashed some tickets. You had Gibbs to win at plus 750, that netted you $75 on 10 units or 75 units. And then you also had this parlay bet of Larson Hamlin Gibbs Hosevar to top 10 at plus 329, and you had 10 units on that as well, so you got 32.9 units back. The two bets that you lost, Tyler Reddick to win, he was actually very close for the top five. And then the other one, Sam Mayer to win, who he ran really well in that O'Reilly series race. It's just he had some damage there at the end and it didn't pan out for him.
SPEAKER_00I'll take that. Absolutely. I'll take it. We made a joke that the Tyler Reddick, you know, one dollar bet was a waste at Bristol, and then they go qualify well and are running semi towards the front and obviously had a shot to win it. So um that's a lesson learned in the fact that even the tracks that Tyler Reddick on paper is not statistically good at. There's something special in the sauce at 2311 that makes them competitors anywhere they go, even at the tracks they struggle at.
SPEAKER_01All three of the cars for 2311 were really good this weekend. I mean, Riley Herbst had a career-best pole at fourth, and then Bubba Wallace finished ninth in both of the stages and right outside the top 10. So all three of those Toyotas for 23-11 were very, very good. Me, on the other hand, I was two for how many? One, two, three, four, five, six bets. So I had a little bit more skin in the game than you did, but I cashed on Blaney uh beating Bell in a matchup at minus 110. So I got 27 units out of that. And then I had top uh Ty Gid Ty Gibbs to top 10 as well, and I put 20 units on it at plus 120. So I actually made 24 units back. So I'm I slid a little bit in the bankroll. You went up again, but uh we're we're doing pretty well, I feel like, in our in our actual bets. So let's go ahead and start getting into where you should lay your money for Kansas. I have a run of about five more bets. I know I'm a little bit more aggressive when it comes to the bet slip, but Andrew, I want to start with you. What are you really looking at as we get ready to head to the Midwest and go to Kansas?
SPEAKER_00Well, and as as we talked about on Fast Talk earlier this week, the Toyotas are just really good this season. They amount for six wins of the eight races that we have been at this year. And when you look at Kansas over the last couple of years, man, it is it is Toyota country out over there in Kansas and in the Midwest. Uh 2311 is very good there. They have three wins in the next gen car at Kansas that's tied for the most with a powerhouse organization like Hendrick Motorsports. So um they're really good there, and that's kind of where I'm starting. Is I feel like this is gonna be a Toyota race given the fact that they're historically good there and that they've been good all season long. But there's some other Fords and Chevrolets that are pretty dang good here at Kansas and drivers certainly to watch.
SPEAKER_01I'm gonna go ahead and start giving some bets out. I think that you're right. The Toyota is gonna be really good here. There's someone that I haven't found a good bet for yet, but if you can find some plus money on this particular driver, Christopher Bell is really, really good here. So that's just a little nugget. So my first bet, I'm gonna do another top 10. I like these top tens. I think Bubba Wallace will top 10 at this event. He's plus 120 on DraftKings. I think that's a pretty solid bet. He's actually in that sleeper category. He won this race back in 2022, and he's had uh, I think three top five finishes at Kansas in the last seven races. So he's he's pretty solid at Kansas. So that's the first bet that I'm looking at. Bubba Wallace to top 10.
SPEAKER_00I I don't hate that at all. Um again, 23-11, they've got speed this year. Uh, I could see Bubba winning this race. I think that's a little bit of a long shot. Top 10 is right where I would put him to be safe. I'm not touching Bubba this week just because I've seen a lot out of Tyler Redick and not the same out of Bubba to have the same confidence that he'll have race winning speed. Um, and you mentioned Christopher Bell. This guy has not won at Kansas, but he's run darn good here. Four polls. Um, he's finished top 10 in nine of his last 12 Kansas starts. And um, you know, he's he's kind of like the top 10 machine at Kansas. So to bet on him finishing uh again in the top 10, I feel like is a is a good move. I have him in a bet coming on later on. Or if we want to talk about top 10s, go ahead.
SPEAKER_01I've got because I'm gonna do another top 10 at for my next bet. So if you're gonna top 10 him, I think that's a that's a solid bet.
SPEAKER_00No, I'm not gonna top 10 just him. The top 10 Bristol parlay, I have maybe a little bit too much courage. And so I'm gonna try it again. I'm gonna go Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Brad Kislowski all to top 10 at Kansas. And the reason I'm talking Kislowski is he finished, I want to say 10th, uh, the last time we were at Kansas in the fall, and that's when Kislowski had a rough season. This was an impressive run for Brad in the sixth car. Now flash forward to 2026. He's in the top 16 in points. He ran well in Las Vegas, the only other mile and a half that we've been at this year.
SPEAKER_01Top 10.
SPEAKER_00Uh it's gonna be a garage pass episode this week, but Chris Busher's saying, watch out for RFK. We struggled at Vegas last year. It was organizationally our worst racetrack, and they all finished within the top 11. And so now you go to Kansas where RFK is already good and has a solid baseline. I feel like they're gonna be uh quietly a very strong organization this weekend. So that's where I'm going with Brad because last week. I think I I toyed between Brad and Chris Busher, but you can do that top 10 parlay at plus 613.
SPEAKER_01Plus six thirteen. That's that's not a bad bet. I like that. All four of those guys are really, really good there. My next top ten, this is this is a reach, and I know that you're going to you're gonna say, I don't know if I would do this or not.
SPEAKER_00Don't say Logano.
SPEAKER_01No, no, no, no, no. We're not going Joey Logano. This is a guy that's been out of the race car for a few weeks. He came back at Bristol. He out of all the Hendrick cars, his car was the one they didn't have to work on the most, but he got wrecked out early. I think that they're on a different strategy as far as the rest of the season goes, and I think it'll be very hard for them to make the chase. So I'm looking at this team to just step forward and continue to build momentum. I think Alex Bowman to top 10 at plus 260 is not a bad bet. He has 11 top 10 finishes at Kansas, and that's the most of any track that he has run on. And he's finished in the top 10 in the last seven Kansas races that he started in. So he's pretty solid here. Yeah. I think this is his best track, and I think to get a top 10 out of him at plus 260, I think that that's enough juice to squeeze. So I'm looking at the 48 team to have a good week. And they need it. I mean, they've only got 24 points to their name. He's got a lot of ground to make up, even to just make it back into the top 20.
SPEAKER_00I don't think Alex Bowman is a bad bet to make. I wish you the best of luck on that. I personally uh am not feeling the juice on that one just because I feel like we need to see more of a sample size out of Bowman. Uh yeah, this is probably the track that you would bet some money on him and and keep an eye on him, but I don't know. I'm just I'm a little weary at the moment of touching Bowman.
SPEAKER_01Uh well, I'm I'm I'm a little weary too. I'm putting units on it. But I think if if there is a sleeper pick, I think that this might be one of them, Alex Bowman to top ten. My next one, uh, we've talked about the Toyota speed. I've got two Toyotas matched up against one another, and it's Tyler Reddick versus Ty Gibbs. Ty Gibbs, not very good at this track historically. Tyler Reddick, on the other hand, very good at this track historically. These guys are matched up together. Both of the odds are minus 115. I'm gonna lay money on Tyler Reddick at minus 115 in this matchup. You can find this one over on DraftKings.
SPEAKER_00I'm surprised Reddick is not the favorite there just because of statistically Ty Gibbs at Kansas. He's only had one top ten finish in seven starts at Kansas. Now, uh I know he's obviously on a different path this year in terms of speed, but um I would maybe pump the brakes on uh like you are pump the brakes on Ty Gibbs this week. You know, uh Toyotas are gonna be good, especially you know, I I I don't think he's gonna be the top Toyota though. That's what I'm trying to say.
SPEAKER_01No, I I think Reddick, I think I'm I'm hedging down on these 2311 drivers. I think they're gonna be pretty solid, and Reddick has been the you know the bell of the ball all season. I know that's two two references to Cinderella now, so I'm I apologize. But uh he he's been really, really good. And if it's any indication, like like you said in the top of the show, he's not been very good at Bristol. He was good at Bristol this past past weekend. So I I think if he's already good at one place, it's just going to magnify how good he will be at the track coming up. So my next matchup, yeah, go ahead.
SPEAKER_00With that said, it's the weekly Tyler Reddick bet. Uh I'm going to not put one dollar, but I'll put I'll put 10 on Tyler Reddick to win the race.
SPEAKER_01I like it.
SPEAKER_00And that's at plus 1,000. I actually love those odds. Yeah, yeah. That's actually really good idea.
SPEAKER_01That's I can't believe he's in he's got four digits. Like I thought it would be a three-digit bet. Like that's that's wild at Kansas.
SPEAKER_00Um, and this guy, he's one before he's got uh one top five, five top tens. Um yeah, and and the momentum on his side. Why not pick Tyler Reddick here?
SPEAKER_01So I I fully agree with that. I think Tyler Reddick to win is not a bad bet. I'm gonna see, I can't bet on that two and expect to make up any ground because then if we both win it, it's just like a it's like a wash. So I have to do something a little bit different. So I'm I'm staying in this matchup realm for my fourth bet. This is Kyle Larson versus Denny Hamlin. So these are two powerhouses. Kyle Larson has plus odds. It's plus 100 to Denny Hamlin's minus 130. And Kyle Larson in three races, or he has three Kansas wins, he's led 925 laps at this place. Yeah. The guy is just insanely good. And he won it in 2025. So I he's coming off of a week where he dominated the Bristol race. I I think the Hendrick cars are going to come back up here. They were pretty decent at Las Vegas, and they won at Martinsville, so they're starting to trend back in the right direction. And oh yeah, Hendrick has won the most races out of any team at this track. So I I like Larson over Hamlin, especially if it's plus money at plus 100. I'll put a few units on that. I know that it's a little prickly, but there's there's really not a lot out there where you're finding value at those plus odds this week.
SPEAKER_00I'm giving you a hard time, but I also wrote down Kyle Larson to win plus 600 as something that I would be doing. So uh I can't necessarily hate on that. I just the those matchup bets. I mean, between Larson and Hamlin is such a coin flip. Although I guess when I'm saying it, my bet is riskier because I'm taking Larson versus the field.
SPEAKER_01Um other, I've got to beat one driver in my deal. You've got to beat 35 other drivers.
SPEAKER_00So yeah, but I get better odds.
SPEAKER_01You do, you get plus 600. So yeah.
SPEAKER_00Um, man, it's coming up on a year since Kyle Larson has won a race. That is crazy.
SPEAKER_01I just it's hard to believe. I mean, and we thought that we were gonna see it. I thought we were gonna see it this past weekend. It just didn't happen. Yeah. So I I think this is statistically one of his he's good everywhere, but this is statistically one of his really, really good tracks. So I don't mind putting a few units on him. Now there's this next matchup bet, and now this one I'm I'm I'm kind of torn. I like both of these guys in this, but I think Chase Elliott is just super consistent, and he's been consistent all season long. We saw that at Las Vegas, finished inside the top 10, and Chase Briscoe is climbing his way back up the ranks. I think he had a big point swing this past week, finished inside the top five at Bristol. He made up a large number of points in the standings, and so these two guys are matched up with one another. Chase Elliott is minus 110, Chase Briscoe minus 120. I'm going to take Elliott at minus 110. That's that's a tough, that's a tough bet, but I'm I'm kind of hedging myself a little bit here.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I I I haven't seen enough out of Briscoe to be like, oh yeah, he's back. Um, I know Elliott won the last time we were at Kansas. That's kind of like with an asterisk because really he would have finished third if the leaders didn't wreck each other. Yes, you know, uh, because that's when Denny Hamlin and Bubba Wallace got into it. Literally, I think it was in turn four on the final lap, and Chase Elliott snuck underneath both of them to win the race. So um, yes, he's a winner at Kansas. Is he the guy that dominated the last couple of Kansas races? No. Uh you could say that about his teammate Kyle Larson, especially a year ago, led over 200 laps out of 267 to win the race. Kyle Larson certainly has speed. Um yeah, I haven't seen enough out of Briscoe to feel confident about that. So um the last one that I have, it's pretty simple. Uh Toyota to win the race, the any Toyota car at plus 100. I'm I'm jumping in on the Toyota train. If there's any place to jump on the Toyota train, um it's here. It's like there's just certain tracks that fit to certain manufacturers. For Kansas, it's Toyota. For Phoenix, it's Ford, you know? Um, and I'm I'm going with that for my last one. I'll put 10 on that. I'll put I'll put uh I'll put 10 on all of them. I'll put 10 on Larson to win, 10 on Reddick to win, 10 on my parlay, 10 on the manufacturer bet.
SPEAKER_01So now I'm gonna ask you a question because the this is just where my head's at. I've won one overtime bet this year already, and that was at Echo Park Speedway. Will there be overtime? There have been a number of overtime finishes at Kansas over the past couple of years. The overtime bet is we will have overtime. It is plus 105. What do you think about that? That's close. That's that's close to even.
SPEAKER_00That's tough. I don't know. With the way these cup races have been going, I think we're gonna see a green flag finish. I think this is gonna be like Vegas, where uh you get cautions for the stages. I think we had one natural caution in Vegas, um, which was the only other mile and a half, and we had a green flag run to the end. So I'm gonna say no on that.
SPEAKER_01I am too. I I just I was just looking at the data, but the line for that is plus one oh five. I mean, it's it's tempting, but I'm gonna stay away from it as well.
SPEAKER_00I I don't think you have enough good odds to to to consider it. That's what I think.
SPEAKER_01All right, so now on to the Pick'em game. We both did very well in Pickham this week.
SPEAKER_00Man, I needed freaking Kyle Larson to win the race. I would have won seven points.
SPEAKER_01I know. You would have you would have cleaned my clock, but uh I am now within nine points. Wow, I got five.
SPEAKER_00Who ended up scoring more?
SPEAKER_01I scored more with Gibbs with the win, 59 points, scored for Ty Gibbs on the win. Larson, 54 points. So I made up a good chunk of points last week, and so I will let you pick first this week in the pick'em game. Again, how this works is we each get to pick a driver each week. We get their points for that race, but we can only pick them one time. So, Andrew, who are you gonna pick?
SPEAKER_00I am going to go with an RFK car. It's not gonna be Brad Kozlowski, but it was a guy who was on the losing end of the closest finish in NASCAR history. Give me Chris Busher.
SPEAKER_01I like that. I think I think you're right that they will be really good this week. It's just I have not found anything on Caesars or DraftKings that I'm gonna do. That gives you some value. Yeah, that I'm super in on with value. But I think RFK is going to be very good this weekend. And going into Bristol, they were the only team with multiple cars to have all of their cars within the top 16. So they've been running extremely well this season. For me in the pick'em game, I'm I'm gonna use this guy here because I don't know where else to use him. And and we're and he's back in the car, so now I can get him off the board. I'm gonna pick Alex Bowman at Kansas. I know it's risky, but they're gonna be on a different strategy than everyone else. They don't need to worry about the stage points. They just need to go and run the race. And if he can get up to the front and maybe get a look at a win, I think that they could pull it out. So I'm taking Bowman at Kansas.
SPEAKER_00That's that's a solid bet. Uh, that'll probably open the door for me when we're in July to pick him for Chicagoland. That was that's where I'm saving him in my head. Um, but that's pretty dang solid. Yeah, let's see, let's see what kind of day Alex Bowman can have.
SPEAKER_01Well, and just on that note, it was just really good to see him back the racetrack. He looked like he was he was in a good headspace, and it was just a shame that he got rake wrecked out very early in that Bristol race. So um again, it's about trying to help you put money on the drivers that you like, make it a little bit more entertaining for you every race weekend, and hopefully you can cash some tickets on it. You can find our podcast or this show wherever you listen to podcasts on Apple Music, Spotify. Where else are we found, Andrew? I mean, what other platforms?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, anywhere where you get podcasts. Um, whether the Apple and Spotify are the two biggest ones, but um if you listen to podcasts on some crazy podcast site, we're on it. So um You nailed the top two ones though. It's Apple and Spotify.
SPEAKER_01There you there you go. If you're on YouTube, like, comment, subscribe to Performance Racing Network. You can get more great content like this all the time. You can listen to Doug Rice's show, Fast Talk. It's also on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. So and uh our show that we do together, Garage Pass, that one's on there as well. So we'll just everywhere. We'll just promo everything we do here at the Performance Racing Network. So we're looking forward to Kansas. Hopefully it'll, you know, be another compelling race on another mile and a half track, and you can cash some tickets and help you grow that bankroll. For Andrew Curlin, I'm David Stiles.