Texas Preview: Why To Bet The Favorites This Weekend

NASCAR heads to Texas, and David Styles & Andrew Kurland preview all the action ahead of racing in the Lone Star State!

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:02

Welcome to Racer's Odds. I'm David Stiles. I'm joined by Andrew Curlin, and we saw another first-time winner in the Cup Series as Carson Hosevar was able to go to victory lane in Talladega. And he did not just win big, but me and Andrew won big this past week as I had two of four of my bets. And then Andrew, you netted another great monster underdog bet by pulling out a bet slip for Carson Hosevar to win the race. That bet was $2,500 plus $2,500. You put five units on it, which netted you $125 or units on that bet. And you're currently at $5,302.40 on the year, starting out with a bankroll of $5K. So you're about $300 up. So uh congratulations to you. Uh little round of applause there.

SPEAKER_01 0:54

Thank you. It feels great. I I wish it was real money because I'm like, dang, I feel like I'm doing good at this. But um yeah, that last week it felt good to spread the wealth a little bit and obviously put some uh monopoly money on Hosevar was was a big deal and ended up working out. So uh I feel like I'm gonna kind of try to stick to a similar strategy this weekend in Texas.

SPEAKER_00 1:18

So I also had Carson Hosevar to top 10. I put 20 units on that at plus 135, so I got $27 in profit. Also had Bowman over Chastain. He finished third. Great run for that 48 team, and that was at a minus 110 bet, and so I got $18.18 of profit back from that. I'm sitting at $4,874.51. So I've been, like we've said before, I've been a little bit more aggressive than Andrew has, but he has really capitalized on Tyler Reddick this year, and Kevin Redfern said it at the beginning of the year on our show that he was the driver to watch this season. And so far, Tyler Reddick has been on fire. But now we head to the Lone Star State for our second time this year as we get ready to go to Texas Motor Speedway. And this is our what third mile and a half of the year, and it's time to see you know the cream rise to the top. We're getting close to the halfway point in the season. When do you think is the good time to look at our barometers and say, okay, here are you know big top drivers and here are the people who need to improve? I think we're right around that time where we see us start to make uh our predictions on what the complexion of the season will be. Andrew, what are you looking for as we go to Fort Worth this upcoming weekend?

SPEAKER_01 2:37

Well, Texas in particular is very much a driver's track. It is a type where it's difficult to unload well, it's difficult to set up with how different turns one and two are to three and four. And I think when you look at the drivers who do well at Texas, it's a lot of the names you would expect. It's a lot of the guys at the top of the point standings, Tyler Reddick, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott. Um, you know, this is the type of track where I would not get too bold, I wouldn't get too crazy into the weeds with things. I think the drivers that make the most sense to win and do well at this race will do well, and I think that's just the nature of this racetrack.

SPEAKER_00 3:20

Also, Texas has kind of been coming into its own the past couple of seasons and has been producing stellar mile and a half intermediate results, and we've seen a few drivers kind of make this place their home, one of those being Kyle Larson, who back in 2021 just pistol whipped the field. If you're into driver ratings, I've kind of fallen into that here in the last couple of uh weeks because you and I say pistols because they get the six-shooters at Texas, you know, all that fun stuff. Right. But uh, but he had a perfect driver rating in 2021, and a perfect rating is 150. So it's been almost a year since we've seen Larson in Victory Lane. Is this the week that that number five car will go back to victory lane and do some donuts at the end of the race?

SPEAKER_01 4:08

He's certainly a favorite, uh, no doubt about it. I mean, he's got a win here five top five, seven top tens. He started on the pole at Texas, and uh, you know, is just a guy that when you think of a driver's racetrack, you think of Kyle Larson. I don't necessarily have anything for him to win the cup race, but I'm very interested and intrigued in him running the O'Reilly race. This is the final race he's running for junior motorsports this year in the O'Reilly series, and we'll just kick things off. He's plus 145 to win the O'Reilly race on Saturday. I doubted that he would do that in Vegas, and somehow he found a way to the front, and once he got clean air, he was gone. He won this race a year ago for junior motorsports filling in for Connor Zilich. Um, I think Kyle Larson's gonna have a heck of a week, both on the mile and a half racetrack, and then also on the dirt track Saturday night. We can't put bets on that. Maybe we can. I don't I don't know if there's anywhere to do that at. But um I think Larson to run well this weekend, I'd bet on it. I'm staying away from him from the cup race, but I'll do something for the O'Reilly race.

SPEAKER_00 5:22

I think Larson has been on a little bit of a tear, even though he doesn't have the wins. He's been running very consistently lately. And one of my bets this week is another matchup bet. You know, I really like these one driver versus another driver. And it's Larson versus Hamlin. Hamlin's actually the favorite at minus 120. Larson at minus 110. I think that this place is predicated to having Larson run a good race this weekend. So I'm going to put a few units on him at minus 110. Again, I like these probability bets. If you look at our our data, I have a lot lower odd risk than Andrew does. I'm around that plus 300 and he's a he's a little bit higher. He's closer to 600, 500. So I like these minus 110 bets just because it keeps you around that flip of the coin. And so I'm going to put a few units on him uh just to make some money back and then get my initial bet back. Another bet that I'm looking at, another matchup for a guy that runs really well here. He has five top fives, nine top tens, and a poll, and that is our best Ford driver on the year. That is Ryan Blaney. He is matched up with Christopher Bell. Christopher Bell has had kind of a lackluster year. We've seen him run up front, but then he gets caught up in a crash, or something will happen on pit road, and he gets delegated to the back. So in this matchup, Christopher Bell is the favorite at minus 135. Blaney's the underdog at plus 105. I'm going to put money on Ryan Blaney. I think he has a great race this upcoming weekend, and I'm willing to put a few units on that. Andrew, what are your thoughts and what's your next bet?

SPEAKER_01 6:57

I like that, and the statistics will forget that Ryan Blaney won the All-Star race here. So he has taken a checkered flag and he has gone to victory lane in a cup cart, Texas, but it was an on-points paying event. So you kind of forget about it. But he is darn good at that racetrack. I like him plus 120 to top five. Uh, I'm not quite sure about him to win quite yet, but um I think you're you're looking in the right direction here for Ryan Blaney. Um, another one, he won at Las Vegas at a mile and a half. He had a solid execution that race. You can never count out Denny Hamlin when it comes to these style racetracks. And I like him to win. He was kind of on track and on par to win at the last mile and a half that we were at at Kansas, didn't get it done, had some circumstances that didn't go the right way, but obviously that 11 team has speed at the mile and a half this year. They've got speed anywhere they they go, honestly. But this is is kind of their bread and butter. And so Denny's got three wins at Texas, eight top fives. He's the favorite in the odds books and in the sports books to win at Texas, but I still think that's a solid bet, plus 500 to win. So that's one I'm looking at for Denny Hamlin. Um I can go into some fun ones if you want.

SPEAKER_00 8:21

Yeah, let's do that. Go there.

SPEAKER_01 8:23

Should I just rattle off the rest? So um I I did well predicting a string of top ten finishers, and I'll do the same. And I said earlier that Texas is kind of like the racetrack where the most reliable drivers will do the best. So I like Hamlin, Reddick, and Larson all to top five. And if you get them in a parlay to top top five, you get that at plus one thirty-one. I think that's pretty solid. Um, of course, I gotta go with Tyler Reddick to win just to keep the streak alive. Um, I feel good about it. He's got the best average finish at Texas Motor Speedway among all the active drivers. He won there in RCR equipment in 2022. So, I mean, if you can win at Texas in an RCR car in the next gen era, you gotta be doing something right. And I think it's no argument that he's in better equipment now. So uh Tyler Reddick, I like that, plus 600 to win for him. Um and then let's get really crazy. Let's get really crazy for the O'Reilly race. I just want to have some fun. I'm gonna go with an extreme underdog. This guy lost the O'Reilly race by 0.002 seconds a few years ago to Sam Mayer in a photo finish. If there's anywhere where you're gonna bet Ryan Seag to win, I think you do it at Texas. Plus 3,000. I'll put a dollar on it, we'll have some fun with it.

SPEAKER_00 9:54

Man, Ryan Seag has been very close. What is it? It's he's well into triple digit starts and has finished second a number of times. I know it. Will he break through eventually? I think he will, but I don't know if it's this weekend. Plus 3,000. He looked good at Talladega. He's looked good at other mile and a half this year. I don't know if that one is for me or not. I'm gonna stay in this lane that I've been in all year. Keslowski, Brad Kay, the driver of the sixth, driver owner. He's been so good. Almost a 180 from last year. He's, I think if you look at the metrics, point differential from positions that you were at at this point in the season last year to now, he is like plus 15 positions. So he's running very well. He's also very good at Texas. Seven top fives, 14 top tens, and two poles, and he's led 5,000-something laps here. I'm going to pick him in a matchup versus Chase Briscoe. Chase Briscoe is he's got that bad juju or something on him. He had a good run at Bristol a few weeks ago, but that dark cloud just seems to follow that 19 car around. And if something bad happens, it just seems like he's there and it happens to him. And so he's the favorite in this matchup at minus 185. Keslowski is the underdog at plus 135. I'm going to pick Keslowski in this matchup. I think those RFK cars will be very good this weekend, and they're one of the only groups that has all three of their cars still in the chase, which is which is a big deal. So I think RFK will continue to be good. I know we've said they're our dark horse of the season, but I don't think you can say that anymore. They've been consistently good everywhere that we have gone. So I'm looking at Brad Kislowski to continue that. And then, you know, let's hop on the train. Toot toot. Everybody all aboard. Tyler Reddick to win the race plus 600. He, out of any driver in the cup series, he has the best uh driver rating. It's a series best. It's a hundred point seven at this track. He has one win, three top fives, four top tens. His average finish is 11th. That's the best in the cup series. And just think about this. This was before he was Tyler Reddick of 2026. Now he's this juggernaut that rolls out about every week, and who will slow him down? I don't think they'll slow him down to Texas. I think he's going to go to victory lane again. It'll be his sixth win of the year, and he's on pace to get to double digits, and I think he'll do it very quickly. So I I I'm going to put a can not a considerable amount, but a healthy amount of units on Tyler Reddick to win this race, and hopefully it pays off. Again, the best odds that we have found for that is on DraftKings at plus 600. So those are my four key bets this week. Andrew, anything else you really want to hit on?

SPEAKER_01 12:57

I think it's crazy. Brad Kazalowski's never won at Texas. I had to check my stats two or three times. I could have sworn I've seen pictures of him in Victory Lane there. Uh obviously a guy who's run really well there over the years, but hasn't gotten the W. So I think that's really solid bet. Um, should we get into Pick'em?

SPEAKER_00 13:16

Let's do it. So last week in the Pick'em, I didn't I didn't do so hot. You did it, you did a little bit better than I did. And I don't know if I've only got a lot of people.

SPEAKER_01 13:27

Gillan got me like 30 something points, didn't he? Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 13:30

Todd Todd Gillan ran very, very well. Keslowski only nodded me in the teens. So you still have a pretty healthy lead. Um, you know, he got caught up in that wreck. He was running in the top five, but it just didn't uh didn't pan out. So now we get ready to go to the Lone Star State, and I'll let you pick first this week.

SPEAKER_01 13:51

I'm gonna go for go for big again. Everything's bigger in Texas. This guy has one win, three top five, seven top tens, and is a recent winner in the Lone Star State over the last couple of years. Give me driver number nine, Chase Elliott.

SPEAKER_00 14:08

Oh, I like that a lot. He he's been very consistent. He gets lost in all of this mixed mash with you know Tyler Reddick winning all these races, and he's been consistently good all year long. I think I'm gonna go out on a limb. I had this guy kind of slotted and I've been waffling back and forth. Track house has been kind of down, but it's time to use him and just get him off the board. I'm gonna pick the one car, Ross Chastain, at Texas. He runs pretty well here, so hopefully I can have a good points day and we can close this lead that you have back down to something reasonable because after Texas, we get ready to go to Watkins Glen. And so now we're gonna be playing a little bit of a chess match here because the next the next road course we see will be San Diego. So it's gonna be whoever gets to Watkins Glenn first and whoever has the better day. I think you may actually score more points. So this is kind of a strategic moment for me to score less points than you do, so I get to pick first and maybe uh do some gameanship here on the pick'em game.

SPEAKER_01 15:14

And steal SVG from me next week. Is that what you're saying?

SPEAKER_00 15:18

Maybe. Maybe we'll have to we'll have to you'll have to tune in next week and find out.

SPEAKER_01 15:22

So darn you. Now all of a sudden I'm rooting for Chase Elliott to not do well.

SPEAKER_00 15:27

Again, in this pick'em game, we can only pick our drivers once. We get all of their points and uh tally them up, and we have a couple of uh bonus weekends. One of them was the clash, neither one of us got anything there. The other one was at Rockingham. We both didn't score any points at Rockingham either. And our next uh just payout race that is a non-points race for the Cup Series will be the All-Star race at Dover, where we can pick anyone in the field, and hopefully it will nod us some points. So if we pick the winner, we get an extra 25 points, which is it's kind of hard to do, but so far in this pick'em game, we've been pretty even and things are getting very competitive. I don't think um, I think we've only had one of us pick a winner, and that was me with Ty Gibbs in uh Bristol, I think. So we've got we've got one winner on the board. Everybody else, you know, we're the strategy is we're kind of holding these guys for the end of the season so that our really good drivers can pay off big points as we get down toward the end of the cup series season here in 2026. Andrew, any final thoughts here as we get ready to wrap up this show of Racers Odds?

SPEAKER_01 16:31

No, I would just say tune in to the Performance Racing Network all weekend long. I'll be stationed up in turns one and two, and so uh it'll be a lot of fun to be calling the action uh from Texas this weekend. But yeah, tune in, see if any of this ends up working out the way we want it to, and um I don't know, we'll recap it all next week.

SPEAKER_00 16:53

Far as the bankroll goes, you're doing very well at 300 up, and I'm sitting about 120 down. So whatever that means, but we're here to help you put money on those sharp bets and help you grow your bankroll and inject some entertainment into these races every weekend outside of just pulling for your favorite driver. Check out this podcast wherever you listen to your favorite shows. That's on Apple Music, also on Spotify. If you're watching us on YouTube, comment, like, subscribe to the Performance Racing Network for more racing content like this, and we'll talk again next week and try to put you on some more of those sharp bets. For Andrew Curland, I'm David Stiles. Thanks for stopping by Racer's Odds.