Racers Odds
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Racers Odds
Watkins Glen: Why You Don't Bet SVG This Weekend
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As NASCAR heads to another road course this weekend, Andrew Kurland and special guest analyst Kevin Redfern preview the action going into Watkins Glen.
All right, welcome to Racers Odds. Andrew Curlin here. David Stiles is uh a little under the weather. We're gonna let him rest his voice. So we're bringing in Kevin Redford again, who found a whiteboard, by the way, right behind him. Today it's all about finding the value.
SPEAKER_01Yep.
SPEAKER_00Kev, how you doing? How the bets looking?
SPEAKER_01Doing great, Andrew. Another great year of betting NASCAR. It's been so much fun. We're still riding our Tyler Redick future. And this is my first appearance on Racers Odds since my second pre-race or preseason future hit. And that was Carson Hosevar over 0.5 wins for the year. So again, if you tuned into that show in February, you're riding high. If you want, go back and listen to it. There's still a couple things you could take advantage of on there 10 weeks into the season.
SPEAKER_00What else do you have that has not come to fruition yet?
SPEAKER_01Well, you know, one of the other futures we placed on that show was uh Chase Elliott uh championship future. Um, so those two plus Chase Briscoe were the three championship futures. Two of three are looking really good right now, with two of those three guys in the top three or four in points. I'm not sure if Elliott's third or fourth off the top of my head, but um uh we're we're in a good spot. We're in a good spot. We're still monitoring, but it's early in the season, and and both those guys still have championship hopes.
SPEAKER_00All right. So you texted me before this saying you've got a strategy when it comes to Watkins Glenn. I'm very curious to see what it is. Um, I've got some stats that I think would support guys after we see a little bit of practice in qualifying, but it seems like you your head's in the right place when it comes to Watkins Glenn. So why don't you walk me through it?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, so uh road courses obviously make our job a lot more complicated as week to week NASCAR betters because of the king of the road, Shane Van Gisberg. And uh I don't think that Tyler Reddick's win at Coda early this year really changes how you look at this as SVG being the favorite. Um, I think that that that's gonna maintain the case throughout the weekend. I think he's gonna show speed early. Um Coda, as we know, is kind of like a weird track for SVG. He just like doesn't seem to have the same dominance that he did everywhere else last year. Um, so with SVG just being a clear favorite, um and the odds for race winning being just unbeddable at anywhere from plus 125 to minus 110 across the books, it's a great, great week to look at top tens, uh Andrew. And typically this is a this is a space I don't dabble much in, but this week it it's undeniably great. So I want to I want to point you to to a stat real quick here, Andrew. So using last year's road course speed heat chart for all road courses for myfantasyrace.com, ranking all the drivers in terms of average speed at road courses, and then looking at Watkins Glen as a track and seeing how drivers fare in speed at Watkins Glen in specific. Um I've tried to cross-reference and get a couple things down here. So there are a total of six drivers who were in the top 10 in speed, in average speed across all road courses last year and at Watkins Glen in the next gen era. Those six drivers are Shane Van Gisbergen, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Michael McDowell, AJ Almendinger, and Ryan Blaney. SVG as a winner as a top 10 is unbeddable. Christopher Bell and William Byron at top 10s both still not great value range and DraftKings. You can get Bell at 190 minus 190 and Byron at minus 140, and that's the best you're looking at. But then you look at the other three Michael McDowell, AJ Almendinger, Ryan Blaney. Two guys, road course aces, we know how they do well. And then Ryan Blaney, a guy who isn't really known for that, but last year and in the last couple of road courses has shown a ton of speed. Those are all guys who are in plus money on the top 10s right now. McDowell, A.J. Almendinger, Ryan Blaney are each as of Wednesday afternoon, plus 110 on DraftKings. I think that those are must bets. They're guys who are consistent road course uh factors all of last year. They're good at Watkins Glen. It I think it's an easy week to look at this by the book after a year last year where there just weren't many incidents, cautions. Um, and so looking at this from the rankings perspective for value, finding the value, Michael McDowell, AJ Almendinger, Ryan Blaney are the guys to look at.
SPEAKER_00Blaney's an interesting one. I saw a stat somewhere he is on a 25-race winless streak without a top five in the road courses. Yet, as you said, ranks within that top 10 of drivers with speed and average finish when it comes to road courses, 10th through or fifth through 10th seems to be Blaney's sweet spot. If he's gonna have a good day, that's where you would go. I think I think he nailed it. Stay away from a top five for Ryan Blaney, but maybe a top ten, I think, would make the most sense for him.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, top fives and purely anecdotally seem like kind of a gotcha bet for me. Like the value jump from top ten to top five just isn't that great historically across a lot of books. But yeah, Blaney, I think Blaney was a guy who might have had speed to match SVG at Sonoma last year before he got punted going into turn one. Um just a guy who like when you're analyzing road courses is kind of a secondary thought, but I would not be surprised if he shows speed all weekend.
SPEAKER_00There's a guy I've been thinking of all weekend, and if if it's not Shane Van Gisbergen, I love me some Chris Busher. Now, I I think you could maybe do like a plus 1800 to win just for fun and just see how that goes, and you don't have to put a lot of of units on that to just make it interesting. But even a Bucher top five plus two thirty-five, I think is the best value I feel like I've seen in terms of a top five finish. This guy is one of the best in the next gen car when it comes to racing on road courses, if we're not talking about SVG. And his last career win came at Watkins Glen two years ago in 2024, when there were guys racing for the playoffs. So he can win at Watkins Glen with a lot of uh high pressure situations. What do you think about Chris Busher this weekend?
SPEAKER_01Great, great bet. He's one of the guys who just missed the cut on that kind of cross-referencing I talked about. He's a guy who's top 15 in road course speed and top 15 in uh Watkins Glen speed. Uh, minus 110, I think, is still good value for top 10. I totally agree with that how I view Chris Busher is kind of how you talked about Ryan Blaney, where like this guy's it if it's gonna take a drastic miss from RFK to not put Chris Busher in a top 10 car at a road course. We just don't see that very often in the last year. Um, so top five might be a stretch just because some of these uh road course guys have shown so much speed. But um, I guess you can loop him into that. So yeah, top top 10 minus 110 is great. Um, you talked about him as a race winner. If if you're gonna take a long shot on a race winner right now, a lot of a lot of a lot of Twitter right now is talking about Ty Gibbs as well. Uh Ty Gibbs went on DraftKings at about 28 to 1 and he's fallen to about 25 to 1. I think that's the best place you're gonna get him. But I think everyone kind of agrees at this point you're betting on an incident, right? They say betting on a caution is not race strategy on the broadcast every weekend. Like that's kind of the same situation from a betting standpoint here.
SPEAKER_00I I'm looking at these odds, and Shane Van Gisbergen, no doubt, is the favorite, but then Connor Zilich, at least at the book that I'm looking at, is the second most favorite to win the race. And they were talking about this on Fast Talk. Bret both Brad Gilly and Alexis Erickson said they wouldn't be surprised if Connor Zilich wound up in victory lane. I think that's crazy. I think I would be quite shocked if Connor Zilich wound up in victory lane. He's a wickedly good road course racer, but at the same time, there are so many good guys in the next-gen car. If we're talking about the O'Reilly race, which I'm pretty sure he's entered in, sure. Bet Connor Zilich all day long. He's got two wins in that series already, won his first career start. I think there's just too many other good players and too many other good drivers at Watkins Glen for Zilich to be that good in odds. Are you staying away from him?
SPEAKER_01I don't know. I'm not as negative. I mean, so Connor Zilich from a pure betting strategy standpoint, he's a guy I'm gonna be looking at as a live bet opportunity, especially depending on where he qualifies. Um, because I I kind of disagree. He's shown a ton of speed in cup car recently. Um, I'm thinking last year at Coda, I'm thinking this year at Coda, and we don't know about how he performs in the cup car at Watkins Glen, his favorite track because of broke his collarbone after the uh uh O'Reilly then Xfinity series race. So um, no, I I think that I mean Connor Zilich is probably gonna show a ton of speed in practice, I'm guessing. Um, he just seems to get bit by some of these mid-pack incidents. Uh, I think Andrew, you got a great view of it at Coda this year.
SPEAKER_00Um yeah, it happened right in front of me, right under my nose. He spun in front of about everybody and they parted the C's to avoid him.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, yeah. So I I think he's been bitten by a couple of uh instances, which is I think common of a of a young cup series driver, but uh definitely think that he's gonna show some speed this weekend.
SPEAKER_00One thing that's gonna be interesting, the last six road course winners have started on the front row. And that to me is something that I'd be looking at on Saturday. Obviously, if you get a good qualifying effort, those odds are gonna not swing in your favor. But if you could catch it right at the right time, is that something you'd be looking at in terms of trying to catch it before the books shift or even looking at practice speed, seeing who's fast, trying to predict who's on that front row?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I I think this is where you look at the Chris Bushers and the Ty Gibbs, and you almost make the bet that they're gonna qualify well up there, and then you've got them at the longer odds now for when they dip. I mean, that's a very, very hard game to play because you just a lot of the speed stuff, average finish we talk about, it can get nullified by one bad setup. So um you you try to you pick one guy, you pick two guys to get on that early in the week, and then just kind of hope and pray. Like, I I could see a Blaney qualifying fast, I could see a Ty Gibbs, I could see a Chase Briscoe. Like, those are all guys who are have been strong on road courses, have great cars, do great consistently, and there's gonna be one or two of them who qualify well and will be in position to pounce if something happens with the 97 and and or the 88.
SPEAKER_00Right.
SPEAKER_01One also real quick, I don't want to cut it off, but another thing too is like the rain, like the the conditions might play a role in all of this, and uh that usually throws a ton of hiccups into it. So that's like one factor here where a lot of this can kind of get flipped on its head easily.
SPEAKER_00Well, not to mention that this is a longer race, 100 laps. It's the first race that we've had this month. Usually we run it way later into the season. You have the new package, uh horsepower package of 750, which again, I think that plays further into SVG's hands because when tires wear, he can save those better than anybody else. But the biggest thing that I'm seeing is turn one, you can't race that like a you know, bat out of hell because there's those tire packs that now keep track limits super close, super tame. And again, I feel like all this plays into SVG's hands because where did he get his first career win? Chicago, where that was a completely unforgiving track. It was tight, it was narrow. So um just some new things to look at. I did want to point something out though. I found this was quite entertaining. DraftKings put a head-to-head matchup of Kyle Bush and John Hunter Niemachek, who's gonna finish in front of the other. Bush is favored at minus 260. John Hunter Niemichek plus 185. David sent me this saying that he was quite entertained by that. I think he even said he was gonna put some money on it. $2. He said he was gonna put some money on Kyle Bush to outrun John Hunter Nimichek. Basically, what they're saying is is John Hunter gonna get payback on Kyle Bush.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I mean, you will not see a minus 260 on a head-to-head bet very often if they're not trying to take advantage of some sort of fan sentiment there. That's crazy. I did not see that. And I I gotta be honest, I can't I can't say I studied John Hunter Nimachek's speed that much. Kyle Bush is right.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I don't think a lot of people would when it comes to Watkins Glenn.
SPEAKER_01Right. Kyle Bush is a guy who is also kind of on the edge of that margin I was talking about earlier. He is the he is the top 15 car in average speed over road courses over the last year. Um, and he was like 15th, 16th, or 17th at Watkins Glenn. So um he's shown decent speed, but uh a top 10 seems to be uh kind of the ceiling there.
SPEAKER_00David Stiles, he texted me some of his bets. He said Christopher Bell to win at plus 1200, Josevar to top 10 plus 220. Uh he's gonna take Larson over Blaney minus 115 in a head-to-head matchup, and then that Kyle Bush bet. I'll have to add in. I've done a weekly tradition of putting one dollar on Tyler Reddick to win the race every single week. So I gotta add that to the mix. But um, if you had to pick, huh? When did you start? I started, I think, after Coda. Oh, okay. Wow. Yeah. I think I put I think I'm I think I predicted him to win Coda though. So after that, I'm like, all right, he's winning three in a row, he's gonna win basically every race. I might as well put a dollar on him to win every time, and I think I'm up from it.
SPEAKER_01So yeah, yeah. This would be another good week. I mean, he he's a guy who like now books are starting to kind of bring him down to the the Denny Hamlins on the intermediates, the plus 500 to plus 600, but some weeks you can get some good value on a guy who's run a won a lot of races.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, we do our pick'em game, and I picked Chase Elliott last week, and I'm feeling pretty darn good about that. He scored, I think, almost darn near max points day. David uh is gonna pick AJ Almendinger. You can only pick one driver once, and I'm gonna ride with my guy Chris Busher. I feel like if it's not SVG, I'm trying to save him for San Diego. I feel like this is the place to uh to run Chris Busher. If you could pick him for one race, I mean Yeah.
SPEAKER_01So can I pick? Am I allowed to pick? Sure, why not? Jump in on it. All right, I'm gonna I'm gonna go with one where I feel like I would have picked someone already. Like I would have you guys talked a lot about Gibbs before Bristol, and I was with you guys on that one, and then he won. So I can't pick him. Um I'm gonna go with Blaney, I'm gonna stick to my guns because he went Larson over Blaney. I'm I'm gonna I'm gonna go head to head with David on this one.
SPEAKER_00Here's the only thing that's interesting is basically this game, you get however many points the driver earns. Well, if you're racing to win the race, you are gonna short pit stage one. And so you're gonna miss out on all those points, unless you're Shane Van Gisbergen and you're that freaking good and you can get stage points anyways. Right. But that's what makes these road course races interesting when it comes to this game because I don't think anyone has finished darn near close to the top 15, top qu top 20 while winning stage one, outside of like a random, really super fast anomaly like SVG.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, yeah. He's I mean, that's the great it'll be fun to watch. Like I know a lot of people don't love when uh when it's a a butt whooping, but he's incredibly talented and and hopefully Zilich can start catching him and we can get those those Saturday battles on Sunday.
SPEAKER_00100%, Kev. Well, uh any closing thoughts? Any anything you want to write down on that whiteboard behind you?
SPEAKER_01Um no, I nothing I can write down, but I will say the hair looks fantastic, Andrew. I mean, we got to keep it. Really? The hair is a recurring theme, I know, on this show. I know we've we've we've worked a lot of iterations, but I think we've landed in a good spot.
SPEAKER_00I've come a long way from that buzz cut from when we first met. Yeah, yeah. Your hair looks good too, Kev. Thanks.
SPEAKER_01Thank you. I try.
SPEAKER_00All right. Well, for racers odds, thanks for listening. Whether you're watching on YouTube or uh listening on the podcast. Remember, we're on all podcast platforms now, so make sure to subscribe. And Kev, thanks for taking some time and hopefully we can find that value this week.
SPEAKER_01Yes, thank you so much for finding the value.