Nashville: Who Will Be Making Noise In Music City

As NASCAR rolls into Nashville, David Styles and Andrew Kurland preview all the action. 

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:04

Welcome to Racers Odds. I'm David Stiles. He is Andrew Curland, and after a rain-soaked weekend, we finally have a Coca-Cola 600 champion. It is Daniel Suarez, a very fitting winner after the tragic sudden passing of Kyle Bush, and our hearts still go out to the family and friends of the driver of the number eight car for RCR. It is a very tragic event all around. A great display here at Charlotte Motor Speedway on Sunday, where Richard Childress and Samantha Bush and Brexton Bush were honored before the start of the race, and it's still a very moving time in the sport, and it's something that we'll carry with us through the rest of the season. But uh Daniel Suarez, big winner this past weekend in Charlotte. Andrew, uh your thoughts kind of on the weekend and how it rounded out.

SPEAKER_00 0:50

Yeah, I think uh Daniel Suarez was the guy who was meant to win the race. Um, even just the concept of the way he won it. They were racing to the rain. They did not know when their last lap was going to be. They gave it 110% every lap towards the end of that race. Um and that was just kind of an overall big big picture theme of the weekend is you you just never know when that last lap's gonna be. Um and I think uh he represented Kyle and his family well, and um David, as you said, it's just it's heartbreaking. It's uh I still can't imagine this to be real. You know, I'm waiting to wake up from this bad dream. But um I think I think we did exactly what Kyle would have wanted, and that's to put some races on and to put on some shows and um and really honor his legacy the way that that we can do best. And so uh it's it's gonna be weird still not having him at the racetrack.

SPEAKER_01 1:56

I'm I'm not I don't know if I'm gonna get used to that for a long time, but no, I'm I'm still in a mode of disbelief almost, just expecting to see him come out of a hauler, get into a truck or a car and and race it. And so this will be something that affects the NASCAR community for months and years to come. But I don't know that all three series were affected by rain this past weekend. That's the first time that all three races in a weekend in NASCAR history have not run the prescribed distance, and all three of them have been cut short because of rain. And I heard someone say this um earlier this week that you know rain in some cultures is seen as a blessing, and and that may have been just some sort of blessing that was bestowed on us this weekend in sight of all the tragedy that we have faced uh coming in start of last week. Uh so we'll try to uplift your spirits a little bit here as we move into Nashville. If there's any kind of consolation to it, uh neither one of us hit the big long parlays that we had last week. So uh another, you know, just couple of bets where it doesn't really play out. I mean, Tyler Reddick for me didn't play out. I I didn't even remember to look and see who won the uh the Grand Prix down in Canada, but I had George Russell and then Sato finished like 10th or something in the Indy 500. So I had no chance in mind. It was really long odd. Um Andrew, I mean, you you were pretty close with with yours, but um, you know, you had David Malucas on a couple other things that you had on the side. So how did you do just in Indy 500 betting?

SPEAKER_00 3:29

Uh not great. I was uh a few feet away from doing better uh with David Malucas. I know Kevin was the same. Kevin bet on uh David Malucas to win the Indy 500, and uh we got a thrilling finish nonetheless, but um it did not pan out well just because of how the last couple of feet of that 500-mile race ended up panning out for me.

SPEAKER_01 3:53

Well, now we get ready to head to Nashville. Another concrete track. It is 1.33 miles, and we've seen a lot of different winners over the cup series on this surface over the past couple of seasons. I'm interested to see, Andrew, what you're thinking as we get ready to head into this one and if you're if there's any sharp bets that you're really keying in on.

SPEAKER_00 4:12

Yeah, I mean, I know Daniel Suarez won the race, but I think about the guys who were good in Nashville, or sorry, uh Charlotte as people that I feel like will continue the momentum rolling. And the players in Charlotte were the Toyotas, the Joe Gibbs cars and Kyle Larson. Uh and when we come to Nashville, there's no one better on paper than Kyle Larson. He's the only driver who has failed to finish outside of the top ten. Every single start Kyle Larson has had at Nashville has been within the top ten, um, or every single finish that is. And so he's plus 750 and a guy where he's on 37 races without winning a race, and I think this could be the turning point. We've seen some winless streaks being broken at Nashville. Ryan Blaney got his first win of the year uh this time last year, and that broke a winless streak for him and the 12 to start the season off. So um Kyle Larson's my clubhouse favorite right now, even though the sports books don't agree with that. Um, the only other guy I would think of would be the concrete king, Denny Hamlin. Four wins on concrete tracks, but he's never won at Nashville, ran third there last year. Um and Joe Gibbs and Joe Gibbs Racing, they have a really good track record in terms of performance during a race. They just don't have the results to back it up uh when it comes to Nashville. So um that's what makes me a little bit more wary on them and uh a little bit more confident on Kyle Larson.

SPEAKER_01 5:55

Yeah, Joe Gibbs Racing has led 727 laps at Nashville, zero wins. So that that's kind of a shocking stat. And you talked about Larson. This is the third longest winless streak he has had since coming to cup, and this is the longest winless streak he's had at Hendrick. It only took him four races to win a race when he joined Hendrick Motorsports at Las Vegas, uh, you know, back what was that, 2021, I think. So this is the longest it's been for him that he has not won in a Hendrick machine. So I'm looking at this, and I think you're right. If you're gonna pick a winner, I think Larson should be your favorite to win, and and it would be wise to put a few units on that. There's another guy that I'm looking at though, and I haven't really found a good bet for him yet, and it's Shane Van Gisbergen. And I know that we don't want to get you know captured in the in the moment and you know be victims of that, but he ran really well at Charlotte last week and ran in the top ten pretty much the whole race. So if he starts figuring these ovals out, I think that he could be one to be a little bit dangerous, especially on these sport books, because his odds on roval on ovals are just extremely high. So if you can find a little bit of value, maybe get him at a longer odd, and then maybe do the cash out game, that might be something good to do with Shane Van Gisbergen. I know that his best finish is you know 25th at this track, but he's only started here one time. So there's it's a sample size of one. And he ran really, really well last week at Charlotte. So that may be something just to file away and just ponder on as we get a little bit closer to race time. Remember, always watch practice and qualifying and see where they get you know shook out at. But SVG should be one to watch on that. Another guy that I'm watching, Carson Hosevar. He is a sleeper. A sleeper at this track. He's ran very well here in the past, has a second place finish uh a couple of years ago here at Nashville, and he also has a truck win at this track. So he he knows how to rip it around this 1.33 mile concrete surface. And I've got him in a matchup, and and I want to get your opinion on this because there's two sets of this that I found on Caesars. He's matched up with Bubba Wallace in a head-to-head. Hosevar's minus 110, Bubba Wallace is minus 120. I'm putting units on Hosevar, and the only thing that's kind of hedging this a little bit is Bubba Wallace is one of those drivers that has logged a ton of time in the top 10 all season long. So there's a little bit of room there, but I like Hosevar in this at minus 110. It gives you that 50% probability that I like to stay around as we try to grow this bankroll. So I'm going to go with that one. So now I'm going to pivot a little bit because there's a group C bet that if you think that you might want a little bit more, you know, juice for your squeeze, these are the drivers that are in the group C. Ross Chastain plus 220, Logano plus 220, Hosevar plus 240, and then Bubba Wallace at plus 290. So you've got two guys in that group that have won at Nashville before, but both of them have been a tick under what they have been in the past. And then you have Hosevar and then you have Wallace. So I think if you if you're gonna fade while uh Hosevar here against Wallace, I think you may also want to put a few units on that plus two forty because Hosevar could win out of those four drivers as well. I want to get your opinion on that.

SPEAKER_00 9:30

I think I think he is a clear favorite, even though the books don't necessarily say it. Joe Logano, man, avoid him like the plague. I know he's good here at Nashville. I I just don't expect him to be a player. I know he crept into the top ten a little bit at Charlotte, but Logano just has not done anything for me this season to make me think that uh he'll be a player. Same unfortunately with Ross. So I like Hosevar. I like I like being a little bit bolder, David, as as our stats have shown. I like Hosevar to win it. This was the type this was the time of year where he got really hot. He finished second at Nashville last year, competed for a win the weekend following at Michigan. Like this is Carson Hosevar's time. Spire has momentum right now coming off at the Coke 600 win. So if you bet Hosevar to win, it's plus 1800. But if you bet Spire to win, it's also plus 1800. So you might as well get a few extra cars in there with the bet. And so that's one that I'm kind of looking at. If you're looking to be a little bit bold and go for a little bit more of a long shot, Spire to win at plus 1800. I don't I honestly don't hate it.

SPEAKER_01 10:38

I like that also. I mean, like you said, they're they're carrying momentum, and Hosevar, he's been, you know, either up at the front or on the concrete track like at Bristol. He was pretty good. Ran fourth about all day long. So that's another factor to think about as well as we get ready to head in this. Another another matchup that I like, Blaney versus Reddick, both of these guys minus 115 in this matchup. Reddick's been on a tear. I mean, he's he's been the best car all season long, but Blaney has a win at this track, and he's very, very good at Nashville. And I think that we're getting to that point after the ND500, we're gonna start to see this Pinsky push. I agree with you, Andrew. I'm avoiding Joey Logano like the plague. But Blaney, that's a different story. It's all going to be dependent on what his pit crew does and if he can actually get good track position and keep it. So I think Blaney over Reddick is a decent bet. I'm willing to put a few units on that. Again, the odds for both of those in that matchup, they're even at minus 115, so that's kind of a flip of the coin.

SPEAKER_00 11:41

Yeah, I'm I think that's pretty solid. Team Penske's looking for their third straight win at Nashville, um, which is going to be big. Last one that I have, it's in the O'Reilly Auto Parts series. Um, this guy has never finished outside of the top 10 at Nashville. And I know there's Kyle Larson and I know there's Justin Olgayer, but Austin Hill at plus 1,500 to win is something that I'm looking at as well. Uh, because I feel like, you know, he's got a little extra to race for and has the speed and stats to back up uh some good runs at Nashville. So that's that's the last one that I'm looking at.

SPEAKER_01 12:19

I like that as well. And and I'm gonna give one more race to go into overtime. Haven't seen a lot of overtime this year. It's been a caution free. A caution, you know, less cautions than we've had in previous years. I think last year at this point in the season, we were into the 90s already with uh you know cautions. We're at 83 currently. I think that this track this weekend will produce a little bit more yellow flag racing, and we will go to overtime. That bet is plus 200.

SPEAKER_00 12:48

So I'm going to uh think we used up all of our overtime attempts. I think we used up all of our overtime attempts a few years ago at Nashville, though. Yeah. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 12:57

I don't think we're gonna go to five plus and Joey Logano will win because it's like, oh, he just has the fuel in the car and everybody else is running out. I don't think that'll happen, but I could see this race going into overtime and it's under their lights. It's at night, so that just adds another little layer to this race as well. So let's get into pick'em. Last week, I picked Priest. Didn't go well. He got wrecked. No, that did not. Got about seven points. You had Corey Haim. So Haim. He finished the race. He finished the race. Uh he got about six points. So we were really? Oh man, ouch. We were in singles. I get to pick first. So you get to pick first, yeah. Out of all of that attrition, you get to pick first.

SPEAKER_00 13:43

I'll stick to the strategy that I've been going with a different fantasy league that does the same thing. This guy had a really solid top 15 run going, ended up finishing 19th in this race a year ago. Um, in terms of speed that this team has, I'm looking for top 20 here. I'm gonna go with Cole Custer.

SPEAKER_01 14:02

Oh, that's a good pick. That that uh you know, the Haas Factory team, they're they're pretty decent here. I like that. I'm gonna go with another guy that's kind of in the same wheelhouse as you. He uh finished a uh the best his finish here at Nashville is second in 2024. 7.5 average finish at Nashville, and so that's Zayn Smith. I like that. I like him here. I think he'll do pretty well. And uh, you know, hopefully I'll net some more points. Right now you have an 84-point lead. So I'm looking to kind of chip away at that as we get into the summer months.

SPEAKER_00 14:35

Zayn Smith led some outright laps at the Coke 600, and so I don't hate that. He's got speed, and he he almost won at Nashville a few years ago.

SPEAKER_01 14:44

Yeah, so very close.

SPEAKER_00 14:45

That's actually I really like that pick. I'm actually jealous of that. You figured it out, David. I figured it out.

SPEAKER_01 14:50

It got the secret sauce. We'll we'll we'll put it in there and see if I can uh gain a few points on you. So thanks for stopping by Racer's Odds. Again, listen on any of the major podcast platforms, Spotify, uh, Apple Podcasts. If you're on YouTube, make sure to like, comment, subscribe. I try to you know get to as many comments as I can. If you're on Twitter watching our reels, I try to you know get on there and respond on there as well. So uh we're just looking for more interaction and we just enjoy you guys watching our product. So, Andrew, any closing thoughts before we head off to Music City?

SPEAKER_00 15:23

No, I'm excited to be there. I'll be back on Pit Road this weekend, and I'm uh excited to tell some more stories. So uh we're heading to Music City. I can't wait.

SPEAKER_01 15:33

There you go. Hopefully, we'll put you on those sharp bets, help you grow that bankroll. Thanks for stopping by Racer's Odds for Andrew Curlin. I'm David Styles.