Racers Odds
Buckle up for a high-octane show where speed meets strategy— each week, David Styles and Andrew Kurland preview this week's upcoming NASCAR race, betting angles, drivers to watch, and bold picks. From long shots to lock-ins, it’s all about chasing the checkered flag and the payout. It's time to lock in —this is where racing fans and gamblers ride together.
Racers Odds
Michigan, Where Manufactures Go To War
Use Left/Right to seek, Home/End to jump to start or end. Hold shift to jump forward or backward.
NASCAR heads to the Irish Hills of Michigan this weekend. Andrew Kurland and David Styles preview the action ahead of an action-packed weekend of racing.
Welcome to Racer's Odds. I'm David Stiles, joined by Andrew Curland. Deanny Hamlin cements himself as the concrete king as he wins at Nashville, but it was over two other JGR Toyotas, and it was a duel there for the last four laps. And Andrew, I thought Nashville was a great race, and it's been putting on a great show for a number of years. You were there, boots on the ground. What was your impressions as we come out of Tennessee?
SPEAKER_00David, I'll correct you real quick. It wasn't a great race. They were great races. All three races, I think, had a pass for the win in the last 10 laps. And I can't remember a weekend like that, as good as that in a while. But um yeah, the strategy on Sunday was all over the place. And there was even a moment that our race director, Laura Beth, she came in our ears and she's like, guys, this is a weird one. And so that made it fun, you know, uh, to follow it along. I had Zayn Smith in my section, and um originally I thought this is the dumbest pit call I've ever seen because they took they were this was a under yellow, they took two tires and one tank of fuel. I'm like, you're right on the edge of the window. Why not take four tires and two cans of fuel, and you know for sure you can make it there to the end. I'm like, they can't make it, and sure enough, they push the window and they push the envelope, and if they didn't get that caution that came out, I think they still would have made it. So um that shows why I report on it and why the crew chiefs are paid the big bucks. But um, yeah, I mean, it was this was this was the finish that I had hoped we would have gotten at the Coke 600. This is what because it was the JGR guys battling it out, and and Suarez is a great winner, and I was great to see him win the Coke 600, but we were brewing for a great JGR battle at the end of that 600, and I feel like the racing gods paid it back to us after having to wait out all the rain and all of the heartbreak that's happened in the last couple of weeks. We got a great finish.
SPEAKER_01Agreed. And I thought that if those tires could have held on a little bit longer, he maybe could have outdoeled Christopher Bell, but he was slipping and sliding as that whole time. And I thought, there's no way, there's no way he's gonna hold him off. He had a three-quarters of a lap lead there at one point, and when I started seeing Christopher Bell, you know, tick off about a second a lap, I was like, yeah, there's he has no chance. And he just didn't have enough rubber. That that's what it boiled down to. He could not keep the rubber on the race car because he took the two tires.
SPEAKER_00But yeah, and I looked at those two tires when they came off, and I mean they were starting to cord, they were in rough shape. So um, I don't think he would have been able to hold off Christopher Bell for the win, four tires or two tires. Um, but at least my comment from earlier is why not give yourself the extra ammunition?
SPEAKER_01Yeah. The good thing is, is I had Zane Smith in the pick'em game. So I I came out really well on that end of it, and we'll get into that at the tail end of the show. But we're now we're transitioning into the Irish Hills of Michigan, a two-mile oval, very fast, high speed, wide, wide racetrack. And this one's a lot of fun. But we've also got three guys that have won here three times. You've got Hamlin and Larson, and then, oh yeah, the other guy, Logano, have all won here three times. And so I think this will be another duel, and I think this is going to be another Toyota show. So I've got a few bets lined up for that. I'm not taking Denny Hamlin as the favorite driver to win this. I'm actually going to look a little bit deeper in the field and go for Christopher Bell. I think he's due. I think the crushing loss of Nashville is just fueling him at this point, and he has to turn this season around at some point. He's having good finishes, but he just hasn't been able to get a win yet in that win column. He's plus 550. So that's my winner of the race. And then, you know, if you want to do a little bit extra and maybe do the cash out game, Chase Briscoe's plus 1,1100 to win. So I think both of those guys will end up being pretty good. Briscoe has started on the pole at this race before, and then he fell back into the field from different strategies. But I think the JGR Toyotas will be really, really good at Michigan. And so I'm looking at uh those two guys to kind of give you a little bit more leverage against Denny Hamlin as we head into this one. And so uh what what are you thinking is as race winners or picks for Michigan?
SPEAKER_00David, I'll tell you those two names scare me. Uh Chase Briscoe and Christopher Bell, yes, they are hungrier than ever, but neither one of them has ever recorded a top ten at Michigan. And that to me scares me. And I know the Toyotas are on a different level, and history is history, and that this year is kind of unprecedented in terms of their speed. Um, I'm worried about that. But JGR, I think if you look at the other two drivers, I think that's where you find your value. In Denny Hamlin, he I mean, he could just win anywhere. You could throw him in the Tyler Eddie category of you put Denny Hamlin on a racetrack, and he's got speed. He'll be able to do it. He he won Michigan last year, so he's our defending winner. And then I like Ty Gibbs. Finished third in the last two races at Michigan. So I think you're on to it with looking at JGR and Toyotas. I mean personally, I'm looking at the other two guys.
SPEAKER_01Well, I'm just trying to give us a little bit of flavor, and I like those odds. I'm just giving you some devils. I know. And I like those odds just a little bit better, and and I think they're both just really, really hungry for a win. We've seen them two weeks in a row, Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin duking it out to try to pass Daniel Suarez at Charlotte, like you said, and then Briscoe was really good, but he just wrecked out. And then last week at Nashville, they're all three right there together. You could have thrown a blanket over them and we wouldn't have known who was going to come out of it. So I just think that there's a lot of momentum with those cars, and they continue to carry that week to week because we we were talking off mic a little bit of instincts at this point. Like the the data is what the data is, and so hopefully they can kind of break out of this and we'll we'll see another new winner. So the next bet that I'm going to talk about, I love these matchup bets, and this is like two seller dwellers just kind of fighting it out. This will be whoever can finish the better of these two guys because they're both having a pretty rough season. It's Joey Logano versus Ross Chastain. Logano is pretty decent at Michigan. Like I said, he's got three wins here. They're both at minus 115. So I'm going to take Logano over Chastain. And kind of my mentality behind this is we're at Michigan. RFK, Pinski, the Ford teams, they're always really, really good here. They want to win in the state of Michigan because Detroit is the home of Ford. And so I think that they'll be a little bit better. And so I'm going to pick Logano over Chastain at minus 115. Again, this is at that 50% probability flip of a coin. And I just think that uh the 22 team will get it done here in Michigan.
SPEAKER_00That's not bad. You got to look all the way back to 2017 to find the last time a Chevrolet has won at Michigan, and that was in Kyle Larson. He's got three wins at Michigan, but they came a long time ago, 10 years, or almost 10 years, nine years ago. Um, Ford, nine of the last 11 races at Michigan have been won by a Ford driver, Stewart House Racing back in the day when they existed, kind of own this place. But uh Joe Logano is not a bad bet here. Um I would say if you maybe if there was a Toyota, I would throw them in and favor Toyota in a matchup bet. But yeah, I don't think you can bet against Joe Lugano. Um when it comes to Ross Chastain, man. Trackhouse, they're just trying to figure it out right now. Um, I think they're they're throwing spaghetti at the wall and they're seeing what sticks. And uh it's almost like this is an experimental phase for them just to get back on track. And so um I would avoid track house unless it's SVG. SVG's got it dialed in. Whatever he's got, the other two need to figure that out and study that. But um I'll I'll give you one. And this was the guy you picked at Nashville, and I'm jealous that you did, Zayn Smith. He's coming off of two straight top tens this season uh at Charlotte and in Nashville, and two straight top tens at Michigan. So he has momentum on his side this season and a pretty healthy notebook going into this racetrack. And so Zayn Smith has got it dialed in as of late. And these top 10 finishes, they're not flukes. He was running up there in the Coke 600. It was a great strategy call, but he had speed to stay in the top 10 in Nashville. I really like Zayn Smith, top 10 plus 450. I think that's a solid bet.
SPEAKER_01I like that too. He's those front row teams, they're doing something to try to put themselves in positions to get more top 10s and better finishes. And he's a really, really good race car driver. And he takes that car and puts it in positions that I think are above where it typically runs. So I I like Zayn Smith at that. I'm gonna do this SVG bet to top 10. I like it at plus 275. I'm again, I'm betting on instincts, betting on momentum. He's had two really good finishes on ovals, and they're not flukes. He ran in the top 10 at both of these tracks. And I said this on Fast Hawk earlier in the week. If you've listened to that program with Doug Rice and Alexis Erickson, he is going to figure this out. And when he does, he will be a problem for the rest of the field, I believe. Yeah. So it's just a matter of time. It's just a matter of time. He only has one start here at Michigan. He finished 25th or 27th something last year like that. He's gonna figure it out. I think he'll top ten again. That's a plus two seventy-five bet. So Shane Van Gisberg.
SPEAKER_00Plus 275 on what?
SPEAKER_01On top 10.
SPEAKER_00Where?
SPEAKER_01On uh Caesars.
SPEAKER_00Wow.
SPEAKER_01Yeah.
SPEAKER_00DraftKings, which is this is what I wanted to talk about. Plus top 10, minus 105 for Shane Van Gisberg.
SPEAKER_01For Shane on DraftKings? For Shane King.
SPEAKER_00Shane on DraftKings.
SPEAKER_01Go to Caesars. It's plus 275.
SPEAKER_00I'll jump on that because minus odds for SVG to top 10 in a Novel is crazy. That's crazy. Like the books have caught up and figured out Shane Van Gisburgen. You got to get in the door now before that door closes on you.
SPEAKER_01As soon as possible, go and get that. That's again on Caesars plus 275. Uh another matchup for me, Hosevar versus Byron. I'm I'm going toward these Michigan drivers. Hosevar's from Michigan. This is a home track for him. It's a tough matchup. Byron's minus 120, so he's favored. Hosevar's minus 110, but they're pretty that's pretty close. Like those are pretty close together. So it you're still kind of in that window of probability of a coin flip. It's a little bit higher, but I like Hosevar at minus 110, and it kind of goes along with the narrative that I've been saying all year that Spire is outperforming what their you know report card would be, and then Hendrick is underperforming based on what their report card should be. And so I'm still going to take a Spire Chevy over that Hendrick Chevy in that matchup with Byron because he's been either in the top 10 or he runs 35th. It's there's neither here nor there. And if we go by the pattern, it's he should top 10 this race, but I I don't know. And like you said, the Fords have been really, really good here at Michigan. A Chevy has not won at this track in a long time. So if I'm going to pick a guy, I'm going to lean a little bit more towards the hometown flair versus just running well for Hendrick Motorsports. So again, Hosevar minus 110 with William Byron at minus 120.
SPEAKER_00That's tough, man, because Byron led 98 laps in last year's Michigan race. Didn't have to finish the show for it because he ran out of gas. And then Hosevar had just left this incredible impression, like, wow, he could have just gotten his first win right here. Um, I think I'm with you though. I think I think Hosovar could win the dang thing. I do too. Carson Hosevar to win at plus two thousand. I feel like that is a if you're gonna pick him to win outside of a Daytona Talladega, this is one of your best weekends to do it.
SPEAKER_01I agree with that. And that again, like you said, plus two thousand.
SPEAKER_00Yeah.
SPEAKER_01Get some get some game on that, get some units on that. That's a good odd. And then if he moves up and the payout is good, cash out and and look for look to redistribute those units somewhere else. Uh the last one that I've got on my bet slip, it's gonna be a Brad Keslowski bet. It's a group bet with Brad, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, and Alex Bowman. So Alex Bowman doesn't really run that well here at Michigan. We've already talked about the troubles that Track House has been having, and then Joey Logano, he's been having the same sort of troubles. Brad Keslowski is the favorite in this group at plus two twenty. And so he has ran very well here. He has sixteen top tens, nine top fives, and three runners-up finishes. He leads all active drivers and starts with no wins at Michigan, which just blows my mind because he's he's a Michigan guy. This is his home track. So I'm I'm taking Brad Keslasky plus 220 in this group D, and I think he can beat all three of those guys. I think that RFK is going to run really well this weekend. They have the most wins out of the active uh owners at this track with 14. So I think those cars will be good, and I like picking him in that group.
SPEAKER_00Well, David, plus Brad Keslowski's going for his fourth straight top 10 here at Michigan. Um, and so he's got a lot of top 10s in his career, but he's also hot as of late, which is a big sign. Same stat goes for Chris Busher. He's also going for his fourth straight top 10 finish, uh, 2023 winner. I like him to top five. I think it's top five at 265. I'm gonna last one. RFK, uh they have struggled as of late, picking up a lot of DNFs, kind of have been falling apart the last couple of races after an amazing start to their season. But I think if there's any time to be having hiccups and to go to a track that you are reliable, it would be RFK and it would be from at Michigan. So um I I would look at them to be strong this weekend.
SPEAKER_01Do you have anything else really on your bet slip? Because the only other thing I have is I was thinking of maybe doing a Brisco top five since he's ran really well the past couple of weeks at plus 170, which is a little bit low, but I don't know. There's really nothing else that I'm looking at that I really feel compelled on the sports book to throw any units at. I know you'll do a Tyler Reddick bet for a dollar. Is there anything else? But he's he's favored to win the race, I think. It's either him or Hamlin.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. Yeah, I'm I'm clear. I'm happy.
SPEAKER_01So the only other little stat that I have is make sure to watch practice and qualifying. The winner of this race has been in the top five sixty point one nine percent of the time, and they start in the top ten 75% of the time. So if they run well in practice and qualifying and they qualify top ten, top five, pretty good chance a winner's gonna come out of there. I think the longest that someone has won this race from was back in the 29th position with Mark Martin a number of years ago. I think that was back in 2009. So if you're outside the top 10, top five here, it's gonna be really hard to win the race. But I think we kind of highlighted it at the beginning of the show. I think this will be another Toyota uh duel, but I think the RFK Fords will also be really good this upcoming weekend for the Fire Keepers Casino 400 in the Irish Hills of Michigan. So let's get into pick them. We already mentioned it a little bit. I took Zayn Smith for Nashville. He ran really well, netted me a lot of points. Uh you had Cole Custer. You did not net as many points as I did. So I cut the lead ever so slightly. We're at a uh deficit. I'm at a deficit of 75 points. So uh you get to pick again first this week since uh you scored less points than I did.
SPEAKER_00David, I'm gonna go with the guy that I was talking about earlier. If you're gonna pick him at any race outside of a super speedway, you pick him here. Give me the 77 of Carson Hosevar.
SPEAKER_01That's a good pick. I think he'll be really solid. You're swinging big. You're going for the gusto. I'm gonna go with the only other Michigan driver we haven't mentioned. Eric Jones. Give me that Jones boy. Byron Michigan's very own.
SPEAKER_00That's not bad.
SPEAKER_01No, I think he'll run really well. He's been running well the last couple of weeks, and uh I like Eric Jones. He's a he's a he's a pretty cool cat. So hopefully he'll get me some points I can narrow that deficit a little bit more because you you've been running away with it, and I keep trying to get a little bit closer, and then you'll jump ahead again with a really good pick. And then I find myself playing catch up. So yeah, thanks for stopping by Racer's Odds. If you're listening to us on any of the major podcast platforms, make sure to leave us a review or a comment. That always helps and put us on download. That'll help the show out a ton. Also follow along with us on Twitter. That'll be on uh at PRN Live. So I know we post a lot of reels on there. Uh, we try to, you know, comment and make sure that we interact with all of you in this community, and we're just trying to help you grow your bankroll. Andrew, any final thoughts before we wrap this one up?
SPEAKER_00Oh man, no, I uh I think we're riding a wave of momentum. A lot of great racing as of late, and uh I'm uh it's gonna be weird watching from the sidelines this weekend, not being in Michigan. I'm also gonna enjoy that time and take some take a breather because we've been busy over here at PRN, but um I'm just loving where the sport's at right now. It's really exciting. So um go listen to our friends at MRN, our friends at NASCORM Prime, and I'm gonna be excited to watch this one from my couch.
SPEAKER_01That's awesome. Again, it's about helping you grow that bankroll, finding the value, and uh just injecting a little bit of entertainment into these races outside of just following your favorite driver. For Andrew Curlin, I'm David Stiles. Thanks for stopping by, Racers Odds.