Pocono: Tricks To Bet On NASCAR's Tricky Track

As NASCAR heads to Pocono, David Styles and Andrew Kurland set up the action before the tricky triangle!

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:03

Welcome to Racer's Odds. I'm David Stiles, joined by Andrew Curlin. Denny Hamlin makes it back to back as he claims another victory at Michigan. And it wasn't an easy one. As he started on the pole, then he had a left rear flat tire, which caused some undercar damage, sent him to the back of the field, and it only took him about, what, 400 miles to get back to the front? And then he drove away to an 11-second lead, and that's all she wrote. So, Andrew, I want to get your thoughts on this. Is Denny Hamlin going to catch Tyler Reddick for these point standings? And is this really a two-car battle for the regular season championship?

SPEAKER_01 0:40

Man, it's going to be close. 51 points is uh it's not a lot when you talk about the pace that Denny Hamlin is going at right now, uh being able to win from the back two weekends in a row. I know we've talked about this to nauseum, but Tyler Reddick had everybody beat at the beginning of the season, but Denny is showing that you know he could put these full races together and he proved that two weekends in a row at Nashville and Michigan. I also think he can put full seasons together. I think that's one thing that he's got to leg up on Tyler Reddick.

SPEAKER_00 1:17

And as we get ready to head to the hills of Pennsylvania for Pocono Raceway at the Tricky Triangle, Denny Hamlin's one of the drivers that has the most experience here. He's won seven times at this racetrack. All signals are pointing toward Denny Hamlin maybe three-peeding here in the 2026 season as we get into the summer months. And if he does, I think his momentum is going to carry him through these next upcoming road courses, and we could see him overtake Tyler Reddick for the points lead. Andrew, I want to get your thoughts. Do you think betting Denny Hamlin as a winner this weekend to go, you know, back to back to back is a good idea for people betting on NASCAR?

SPEAKER_01 1:58

That's a tough one, only because he is plus two seventy-five to win. And do I think he can win the race and will probably win the race? Yeah, I would feel really safe telling you right now that Denny Hamlin's going to be a winner. Do I like it at plus two seventy-five with a lot of other strong guys in the field? That's what I'm a little bit more wary on. But he did finish second in this race last year. He led 32 laps to his teammate Chase Briscoe. So uh it's not like he's bad at Pokono. He's quite good. And David, you rattled off some stats as well. Listen, this is what gave Tyler Reddick the big points lead that he had at the beginning of the season. It was three-peeding. I think it could be Denny Hamlin's time to give Tyler Reddick a little bit of taste of his own medicine and maybe even catch him in the points. I'm not saying he'll take the points lead, but I think he's gonna cut back into that gap even more uh this weekend at Poconell. But I don't know. What do you think? At plus 275, is that some is that do you feel safe betting on Denny Hamlin there?

SPEAKER_00 3:01

At plus 275, I think there's some odds that are a little bit you know more interesting that you could bet on and maybe play the cash out gain. I'm looking at someone like last year's winner, Chase Briscoe. He's got a ton of momentum right now. And I think him, he's what, plus almost a thousand to win this one. I mean, it it's not a bad bet. I think Toyota is going to continue to be very strong. When I started looking at this race and looking at the sports books, there wasn't a whole lot in the manner of picking a winner for me that really makes sense. And for me, if you followed along with the show, I have a lot of success in these matchup bets. And the matchup bets this week are they're a little bit hairy too. So there's a lot in this that it's going to be whatever your intuition is and whatever data that you can find to support, you know, which way you want to lean on these bets. And there's another guy that we really haven't talked about yet. Had a good run at Michigan, a Michigan-born driver, Eric Jones. He finished second last week. He's got a ton of momentum. He is driving a Toyota for Legacy Motor Club. And oh yeah, by the way, he's pretty decent at Pocono. It's kind of hard to find him on a good line, but I like maybe betting Eric Jones to top 10. He's got five top fives here, eight top tens. His average finish position at Pocono is 13.6. So pretty good chance that if he's starting to figure that car out and they're starting to get some momentum, that an Eric Jones top 10 bet might be one to put a few units on. I know you can find that in a couple different sports books. So just look around and shop it and see if there's some value in there for you. But I like Eric Jones the top 10 this week. I think he's got the momentum to go forward.

SPEAKER_01 4:44

Dang it, David. Like you're stealing all my things. You hit two of mine. Uh, I like Chase Briscoe to win at plus 1,000. He led the most laps last year to get his first win of the season, first win for Joe Gibbs racing uh one year ago. And man, yeah, Eric Jones, that was what I wrote down, is Eric Jones top 10. There's something about these legacy cars right now. They had a good run at Michigan. I think things are trending in the right direction. Jones had race winning speed uh leaving Michigan, and he thought he could have won that race. And so when you look at him as someone to perform at Pocono, I like where your head's at. I like his teammate too, John Hunter Niemacek. Finished sixth at Pocano last year, plus six fifty to top ten. I'll throw that one in there to sweeten the pot a little bit. Um The only other guy that I have written down really is Chris Busher, ninth at Michigan. He's a Pocano winner. Sure, that was back in 2016 with the crazy fog that happened, but he's plus 110 to top 10 at Michigan, or sorry, to top 10 at Pocano. Um, so that's the last guy that I have. He kind of threw my thunder, David.

SPEAKER_00 5:54

I know another little interesting stat. I'll let you have the Chase Briscoe. Uh if you if you want a little bit longer odds, he's plus 1200 on Caesars. If um if I'm gonna pick another one of these JGRs, I like Ty Gibbs. He's only had four starts here. He's got an average finish to lead the series at 7.25. He's pretty decent at this track. So maybe if you want to play the cash out game, Ty Gibbs at plus 1200, he's been pretty solid all year. He's got a lot of momentum, runs in the top 10 most of the time. Got wrecked out last week at Michigan a little bit early, had some snafoos there on pit road. But I think that team is moving in the right direction, and they could be a chase contender for the championship once we get down to the end of the season. So I like Ty Gibbs to do that. And um, yeah, I agree with you. I think Chase Briscoe's a good bet. If you want him at a little bit of uh more plus money, it's plus twelve hundred on Caesars, like I said. And then that Eric Jones bet I think for top ten is really good. So now I'm gonna go into these matchup bets, and these these are a little bit hard, but this is where I've had some success in the sports book. So the first one is Chris Busher versus Carson Hosevar. Both of them minus 115. And I actually like Hosevar over Busher in this matchup. I think he's got some momentum going forward. The Spire cars have been pretty stout all year long. So I'm gonna do uh, you know, Hosevar just a tick over Busher at minus 115. Again, this is almost a flip of the coin on who you think will uh be a little bit better between those two cars. So I want to hear what your thoughts are. I've got three more after this because this is really all I've got on my bet slip this week are these matchups in this Eric Jones top ten and that Chase Briscoe plus 1200.

SPEAKER_01 7:32

Yeah, Hosabar uh that is certainly an interesting one. I I did not have him on my list, but um he he's got one of the best starting positions at Pocono. Uh it's only been two starts, but it's been an average of ninth. So uh this is a guy who can qualify and be up front. The metric is gonna be on his side, which is another big thing. Uh when and thinking of the metric, too, this is the first time all season Tyler Redick is not going to have the metric to his advantage. He's gonna be going out early and qualifying. He's not gonna be in the best group for practice. That can snowball and that can spiral a bad finish one weekend, not only impacts that one weekend, but that can uh that can trickle through other weekends. He doesn't have the best stats at Pocono either. Um with that said, still gonna put one dollar on Tyler Reddick to win the race. David, at this point, might as well also put a dollar on Denny Hamlin. Like it's gonna be it's gonna be a dollar for those two drivers now, and I know we're circling back to it, but I'm getting pumped about the chase because I think these are gonna be our two players. It's gonna come down to these two guys, and we're gonna be looking back at the 2026 season saying, remember the battle between Reddick and Hamlin all year long? So I think they're just gonna start swapping wins. You know, we've had seasons of the big three. Uh, we've had seasons where one guy has dominated the whole thing, like Larson in 2021. I think this is a two-man race to the top and Denny Hamlin and Tyler Redick.

SPEAKER_00 9:09

Do you feel like it is Denny's year? I mean, we've talked about this on other shows. Does it feel like it's starting to become Denny Hamlin's year and this could this could be it? He could win the championship this year.

SPEAKER_01 9:19

I mean we've seen this type of midseason performance from Denny before, but the only difference is the format isn't necessarily there to stomp on Denny's throat when he's most vulnerable and and most ready and deserving to win the title. Like this chase format, I truly believe the best driver will win the championship. And so if Denny keeps the pace up, like I said, I think it's gonna be it's gonna come down to homestead between him and Reddick. And I don't necessarily want to call it Denny's year because it feels like every year is Denny's year and then it ends up not being, but if it feels any different from a Denny's year, it would be the standpoint of he's got the format where he can control his destiny a little bit more, and that that I think helps me sleep at night knowing that the best drivers are gonna be racing it for the title.

SPEAKER_00 10:17

If you're looking at those championship odds, Denny Hamlin plus 200, Tyler Reddick plus 330. So Denny Hamlin's actually the favorite right now. This is on Caesars. Um so even though he doesn't have the points lead. So a lot of momentum with Denny Hamlin, and I will say my future for Joey Logano to win the championship at plus eighteen hundred, it's gotten a little bit better. It's plus sixteen hundred now. So cash out, David. It's moving, it's moving up. I might as well just cash out now, get my get a little bit of money on their return.

SPEAKER_01 10:47

He's not even set 16 points. He's 17 now. Granted, he's three behind Austin Sindrick to get into the chase. But man, if those odds moved up ever so slightly, David, get the hell out of them there. Ton of pull it out.

SPEAKER_00 11:01

Pull the money out. We'll redistribute it somewhere else. And speaking of Logano, that's the next matchup I have. We'll have two Fords head to head with one another. Brad Keslowski, Joey Logano, minus 115 apiece. Kind of have to give the edge to Keslowski. He's had a number of runner-up finishes here. I think RFK is slightly better than Pinski right now, so I'm okay with putting a few units on Brad Keslowski, bad Brad. I need him to get a win. I've also got him on a future to get at least 0.5 of a win this year. It's got to happen at some point. Brad, make it happen, buddy. Come on. Let's get to victory lane and be able to cash out one of these futures. So the next one, again, two Fords match up together. All of these are on Caesars. Priest versus Cindrick. So that one's interesting. I don't know if I'm going to put any money on it because that's really a toss-up. Ryan Priest has been on a terrible, terrible run lately, getting wrecked out left and right. I mean, Dover, his car catches on fire. He gets fined, the 25 points and the position at Texas for wrecking Ty Gibbs. He gets crashed out at the Coca-Cola 600, gets wrecked at uh Nashville, then also gets caught up in you know pit lane altercations and wrecked again at Michigan. It he just can't get out of his own way. So in this one, I would almost want to just put a few units on Cindrick, even though they're minus odds at 115 that that two car is just going to finish better than the 60.

SPEAKER_01 12:24

Yeah. Yeah. I I Cindric's got something going right now, and Priest has just had bad luck that they're waiting for it to turn around. So uh I don't hate that at all. Last one that I have uh is this is really not gonna be much of a surprise. Sportsbooks don't think it's gonna be a surprise, but Toyota would win at minus 115. I think that's just I know there's a minus odds, but I can't really see another scenario uh than a Toyota winding up in victory lane at Pocono. So that's the last racing bet that I have.

SPEAKER_00 12:59

There you go. So on those minus 115s, remember, you just got to lay a little bit more money to get into the green. You will get your initial bet back, but just factor that in. Do a little bit of math. You can find the calculators out there on the web and just uh adjust it to whatever your bankroll is. Last matchup bet that I have, and this one will play off a little bit of uh attrition that we had last week. You've got Chase Briscoe matched up with Christopher Bell. Chase Briscoe is actually favored at minus 120. Christopher Bell minus 110. We've received news that Christopher Bell will compete in the Pocono race this weekend, despite having a fracture in his left wrist after a crash that he uh hit the wall very violently in with Chase Elliott. So um me, I think you go with the favorite in this matchup. I would put a few units on Chase Briscoe. We don't know how that wrist is going to hold up under speed. Both of those cars have had a ton of momentum here in the past three races, but I think Chase Briscoe's a little bit better than Christopher Bell right now, and I'm interested to see how he plays off of this injury. Um I want to get your thoughts on that, uh, Andrew, before we head into uh a couple of other things here at the end of the show.

SPEAKER_01 14:06

I echo that. Uh I think Bell will be able to hold his own with a fractured wrist, but man, that uh that impact was hard. It was, I think, the hardest impact of the next gen car, frankly, in the last 10 years is the report that I saw that Christopher Bell had at Michigan. Um I'm sure he has had some time to recollect, but if you're kind of going in at a disadvantage, plus Briscoe is the better driver statistically at this racetrack, I like what you're saying, David. This is not making for a very interesting show because we seem to be agreeing on a lot of stuff. But I mean it um Poconol's kind of just more of a straightforward racetrack. It's very niche, the same types of drivers do well there every single year, and uh, I think that's that's what we're what we're seeing as we kind of comb through the field here.

SPEAKER_00 14:58

I agree, and and this track is very technical. You you either set it up one way and then you run it that way the whole time, or you set it up to be good in a different corner, and then it's really dependent on who is good everywhere else. I know that a few years ago, a number of years ago, when Ryan Newman was still running in the cup series, he would set it up to just be like, I'm not shifting, and would just run in the same gear the whole time. So there may be some of that. It just depends on what the strategies are for these cup drivers. So uh we'll get into Pick'em and then we've got some fun stuff planned for the end of the show. I know we're getting a little long on time. Uh, we both did really well in Pick'em last week. I had Eric Jones, you had Carson Hosevar, you outscored me by a single point.

SPEAKER_01 15:40

One point.

SPEAKER_00 15:41

So I had 44, you had 45. So um that means I get to get to go first. I'm trying to set myself up strategy-wise here. So I don't know what you're gonna do, but I'm trying to stay with my strategy to maybe get Shane Van Gisbergen in a couple weeks for uh San Diego. So I'm gonna pick Cole Custer. I'm down 73 points, but this fits into my strategy to where I'm not gonna burn up any of my uh A1 drivers before we start getting into the end of the season and into the chase. So I'm gonna use Cole Custer.

SPEAKER_01 16:14

That's not bad. Um I'm gonna use a guy who has been climbing through the points as of the last month. Uh, a guy that I feel like is starting to heat up as we look into the NASCAR Cup series. I'm trying to find some stats on him, but I can't. But I like the driver of the seven and Daniel Suarez, and that's why I'm this week.

SPEAKER_00 16:34

Yeah, Suarez is really good. He's been on a tear lately, was a factor at Michigan late. I like that pick. So now into the uh non-racing stuff. As the World Cup is here. I know, Andrew, you're going to a an actual World Cup event. You and our race director, Laura Beth Barnhart. So um I I played soccer as a kid, but I I don't know a whole lot about soccer. So to me, it's like, hey, just put a few units on USA and hope they do well. And and I know England is pretty much the favorite, and there's a couple of other teams that are pretty solid. France is usually really good, but uh what what are you thinking as far as betting the World Cup?

SPEAKER_01 17:11

Um, you know, there's a few things that I've got looking at, and I kind of like the parlays, especially with the way this World Cup is matched up. It's a new format this year. So in the group stage, the top two teams are guaranteed to go through, and then there's the occasional third team that will be getting in based off of points and goal differential to get you to the round of 32, which is the first round of the single elimination knockouts. Um and previously there were 32 teams, and they would whittle the field down to 16 based off of getting out of the group. So there's more teams, which means there are more teams that aren't as good. So I've got a parlay for let's see, one, two, three, four, four teams to make it into the round of 16. That means they make it through the group stage and they win their first game in the round of 32, and that is France, Spain, England, and the United States. That gets you at plus two seventy-six. So I'm kind of betting some favorites. The United States is kind of the riskiest of those, but with the team that they have and they can win their group, set themselves up for a solid game in the round of 32, there's no reason why they can't make it into the round of 16. So that's what I have. And then just to make it a little bit more interesting, um, I've got a five-team parlay to make it into the round of 16. That is France, Spain, England, Brazil, Argentina. And so I think those are the top five favorite teams to make it in. Um it's not that exciting in terms of uh in terms of betting some unique ones, but I'll give you this. I think winner of the World Cup could be the ninth different country to win. There's only been eight countries, believe it or not, that have won the World Cup before. I like Portugal at plus eight hundred.

SPEAKER_00 19:12

All of these are the things.

SPEAKER_01 19:13

Rosciano Ronaldo.

SPEAKER_00 19:14

Yeah. All these odds are pretty solid. I I I'm liking what you're saying. Uh if you're on Caesars and you just want to bet the United States to get out of Group D, that's the group they are in. Uh let me get it pulled back up here. They are in a group with Turkey, Paraguay, and Australia. They're plus 140 to win that group to top two. They are minus 225. So betting on the USA in that, plus 140, that that's pretty decent odds to get out of group D there on the uh World Cup side. So uh anything else here before we wrap it up. I uh I'm not like you, I'm not as well versed in the World Cup stuff. I don't have a whole lot of parlays to put together for that. Uh if you're in the Charlotte area and you're you like our show, come out to summer shootout. We've had a whole lot of fun. We've done two rounds of that already. Uh it's it's been a blast. Uh, there's nothing really to bet on because it's it's young kids racing, and there is a master's division that's for the older gentlemen. They call them the grumpy old men, but they they have a good time out there. And those legend cars, believe it or not, they go pretty quick, about 123 miles an hour around a quarter mile track. It's a lot of fun. We had a school bus race here at Charlotte Motors Speedway this past week with some media members and actually had a bus flip over. So there's a lot going on in the summer in the world of racing. And if you're in the Charlotte area, come on by Charlotte Motor Speedway on a Tuesday night and check out some summer shootout. You can see me do a dog and pony show down there on Victory Lane. It'll be a lot of fun.

SPEAKER_01 20:39

If only we could bet on the school bus races.

SPEAKER_00 20:42

Yeah, there we go. A little bit of odds on Orange Crush and Blue Thunder and Purple Rain and the bus that won, Captain Clutch. So there you go. A lot of a lot of fun with school bus racing.

SPEAKER_01 20:53

I'm a proud school bus winner. Anytime you need me as an analyst, I know what it's like to wheel those big machines around. I've actually I've I've proudly got my trophy here in my office right here, as you can see. Um it's my most prized possession, David. I I I take that stuff seriously.

SPEAKER_00 21:10

So the cool thing, Peyton Manny, not Peyton Manning from the NFL, but Peyton Manny from WGHP, a uh she's a news reporter. She won the school bus race, got her out of the school bus. She's she's an average-sized uh lady. The trophy they gave her is like 6'3. Like it dwarfs her in comparison. It's a big trophy. Multicolors. So it I agree with you. That thing is for bragging rights. So if you can come out to Charlotte Motor Speedway summer shootout and see some of that action, it'll be a lot of fun. MRN will have all the coverage from Pocono this weekend. Make sure to tune in and get all your bets in. Uh, I think we both agree Denny Hamlin's probably the favorite. We could see him go uh three-peat, go back to back to back. Again, that'd be the second driver to do that this year. So I think those Toyotas will be really strong. Thanks for watching the show. If you're listening on any of our podcast platforms, make sure you like or comment or just subscribe and download the show. If you're on YouTube, subscribe to the Performance Racing Network so you can get more content like this. And it's all about helping you grow that bankroll. For Andrew Curland, I'm David Stiles. Thanks for stopping by, Racer's Odds.