Episode 7: Is There Any Inventory Shortage Or Not?

This week on No Surrender, we're tackling four topics guaranteed to start hot takes & fierce debates across the industry:

🔥 Is there really an inventory shortage, or are we looking at the market all wrong?
🔥 We no longer have a 30 year fixed rate mortgage
🔥 AI is everywhere, but is the industry focused on the right inflection point?
🔥 100% FHA financing: smart solution for affordability or repeating past mistakes?

The only housing live stream where the hosts regularly disagree with each other...and somehow keep coming back the following week😉.

LIVE Thursday at 1PM EST with Erin Dee, MBA and Coby Hakalir.

Transcript

SPEAKER_10 0:36

Episode four, another lively week in mortgage. Hello, friends.

SPEAKER_01 0:40

Hello. Hello.

SPEAKER_06 0:42

One of the weirdest weeks in mortgage in a very long time, right?

SPEAKER_01 0:46

It is. Yeah. Although before we get started, I do want to acknowledge it is June. Um, and therefore, I do want to wish Kobe happy Pride Month. So is that?

SPEAKER_10 0:56

Thank you. Yes, of course. Yeah.

SPEAKER_06 0:58

It's also National Home Ownership Month, which I'm also very proud about.

SPEAKER_01 1:02

Yes, love that.

SPEAKER_06 1:03

My pride runneth over.

SPEAKER_10 1:06

We have a lot to cover today. Um, I had a loss this week, so I would like to talk about that a little bit. And uh, we're gonna have a quick funeral here. Director Poulty. I appreciate that. Director Poulte. Uh, we're gonna talk about him. We're bringing on a very special guest to Washington Insider housing shortage, Berkshire Hathaway's acquisition. Uh, Aaron makes the claim that the 30-year mortgage is no such thing anymore. There is no such thing as a 30-year fixed mortgage. That'll be interesting. Urban Institute says that we should allow a 100% FHA mortgage. So we have a lot to unpack here. But before we do that, last week, you guys, you may recall that uh you made fun of me for wearing uh a shirt that is something that's very meaningful to me. I don't know what you're pointing at, Aaron, but um, I've got this shirt that I wore last week, and I've had this shirt since 2009, and it's been through a lot with me. And it's been like the shirt when I show up with this shirt, I got my game face on. My confidence is at a record high. I sleep with this shirt. Actually, I slept with this shirt. So these guys made fun of me last week on the podcast, and after a lot of deliberation and and many, many tears. Um, well, you know what? I'll I'll let this speak for itself. I love this shirt.

SPEAKER_07 2:31

If you're in court today. Hey Greg, what's up, man? You look so sad.

SPEAKER_08 2:36

It's this shirt. I look I loved it. I loved this shirt. I think I made fun of. I don't know what to do. Sadly, I think this could be the end. Could be the end.

SPEAKER_07 3:00

You have no idea what I'm gonna do with the jerk. No idea to do with the jerk.

SPEAKER_10 3:30

I love to hear it.

SPEAKER_06 3:31

Oh, I'm dying. Uh I'm dying. You know, they they say a great film brings out all kinds of emotions. And in the span of that 30, 40 seconds, I laughed, I cried, I was deeply disturbed. Um, all of those things. Um, you know, I I uh I don't even know where to begin, but that was brilliantly done. I have to give it to you. Thank you very much. And that was your debut shirtless, shirtless debut on No Surrender.

SPEAKER_10 3:59

Not bad. I'm no Brian Covey, but I'm okay, you know.

SPEAKER_06 4:02

And just like just like the ice bucket challenge, you've got to now nominate the next person to do that. To burn a shirt, to to go to go topless on no surrender.

SPEAKER_10 4:12

Well, maybe it'll be our our in our our Washington insider. What do you think about that? I mean, he I mean, a guy with hair like this, uh he probably looks just as good with no shirt on. Tim Rude, how you doing, my friend?

SPEAKER_04 4:26

Uh I was just picturing the watercolor ping painting I was gonna make of you shirtless. So sorry, I was distracted for a second.

SPEAKER_10 4:33

So um, yes, go ahead, Jake. All right, so we'll set the table here. You're the uh founder and CEO of Impact Capital, former director and principal at Fannie Mae. You were a finalist for the uh mortgage bankers association. Um, role of president CEO. Bob Broke Smith later got it. I understand you did some dancing on a table at uh headquarters. That's a story for another day. Uh but uh it's great to have you here. The reason we're kicking this show off with you is because of the news of Director Poulty, uh named by President Trump as the acting director of national intelligence. Uh, you know a lot of people on the inside at Washington. Uh tell us what we should be talking about here and what this means and how you think it might impact the mortgage industry, if at all.

SPEAKER_04 5:16

Sure. Sorry, I've got a cough drop in my mouth. I'm fighting a head cold. Uh spit it out.

SPEAKER_10 5:21

Don't spit it right into the camera. Come on. I think like everybody else do it.

SPEAKER_04 5:26

Like everybody else, you know, you first heard the news, and it was sort of like the first time you see uh a squirrel water skiing. You're like, what the you know, how did that happen? Right, and then you have to slow down for a second and you sort of parse this a little bit so that we can all sort of have the right context. First and foremost, I mean, it sounds like Poulty really pitched the president. I'm not quite sure if he went to Mar-a-Lago, but he went there with a pitch. And I think the pitch largely was hey, look, here I am. Here's a guy who's been, you know, a loyal servant to you. You could clearly, you can't argue that the guy is is certainly trustworthy. He's gone through some pretty choppy waters at FHFA. You just think about, you know, the going after Adam Schiff, Letitia James, Lisa Cook. You know, those are those are pretty dicey topics, and he made it through it while those, you know, those things haven't ultimately landed in convictions. There's no doubt that he made it through without leaks. And this town leaks like a sieve. I don't need to tell you guys there was no leaks, no one broke ranks. Couple people who maybe disagreed with him found themselves, uh, let's just say unattached from their respective agencies. Um, but net net, if you look at his portfolio, on top of the fact that he's a trusted resource or a trusted advocate for the Trump administration, you know, if you looked at it objectively, he comes to you and says, Hey, look, I'm already running a $10 trillion portfolio for you. You're like, good argument. I'm already running, you know, two organizations that make $25 billion a year for you. Okay, good argument. I've got my hand on the joystick for the entire housing market, $70 trillion market, mortgage markets. You need somebody you can trust here to cover this vacuum while Gabby is gone. Goltner Tulsi Gabbard is gone. And I basically he's the guy because it's a it's a communications sort of coordination role. It's not, you know, this isn't homeland. He's not, you know, going undercover into Afghanistan, kicking indoors and and things like that. It's not to suggest that this is a trivial role. Clearly, it's not. He's he's gonna be basically the arm of the president going into these intelligence agencies, helping to set the agenda, which if you guys um are familiar with the uh Office of Management and Budget, they do that right now for government agencies in and around housing for the most part, for our purposes. And then he's basically the you know, the vehicle back to the president. He's messaging back to the president on this is working, it's not working, you know, they're adhering, they're not adhering. So I'll pause for a second, but um to see if you had any questions about that, then I can talk a little bit about perhaps uh implications for GSEs, GSE reform. Excuse me.

SPEAKER_01 8:06

Um, so so what do you say? First, thanks so much for coming on. Um, you know, what do you say to the people who are concerned about this given the fact that he, you know, they're claiming that he went through the the private data of the president's enemies on the housing side to try to go after convictions and what that might signal to what he would do now with access to the IC?

SPEAKER_04 8:28

Yeah, I think that's look, it's it's speculative because you know, dead men tell no lies. I don't think there is anyone around to tell you exactly how that all went down. I mean, their argument has been is that it's a it's pretty routine. Um, you have companies like Palantir going through, which instead of doing a one or two percent sample, you know, Palantir will tear through 100% in, you know, go. They'll they'll tear through it. So it is it's reasonably possible that they could have done it through, you know, apolitical means and methods. I I have no way of knowing that that's accurate or not. And again, for the purposes of the intelligence agencies, he's not an operator. They still have deputy directors and directors that are going to be running these organizations. The role of the director of national intelligence is again comms in collaboration. They're sitting over them in more of a, I wouldn't say idle capacity. It is a cabinet position, so it's certainly not trivial, but it's not running the agencies per se. So he can't give them directives like that. I couldn't say, open up the files and tell me everything that Aaron D did in high school, you know. But that's they're not gonna just willy-nilly do those things. Now that I think about it, anyway, I'll I'll come back to that. But so he's not so I don't think that's the case. I mean, it is kind of comical when you think about all of these things. I I hope this isn't the moment that you get canceled, but I did think about this morning. Remember the show in Living Color? Sure, right? The Wayans brothers back in the day. Right? So there was a whole skit on this Jamaican family. How many jobs you got, man? Right? So he's got think about Pulti. He runs his chairman of FHFA. I mean, he's director of FHFA, chairman of Fannie, chairman of Freddie. Now he's the D and I. I mean, it's like how many jobs you got, man? It's like three jobs, like, ah, I got eight jobs, man. Like, I've got a lot of jobs.

SPEAKER_10 10:18

Kobe, Kobe, jump in here. What are your thoughts on this?

SPEAKER_06 10:20

You know, there were two things you said, Tim, that you know, kind of triggered me a little bit. And I'm not directing these questions at you because I know you're you're telling us a story. Um, but just two things that I want to surface. One, you mentioned loyal servant, and then the other thing you said was comms and collaboration. So the two the two thoughts that that sparked was one, at what point did we move from we want the best man for the job that has the highest level of competency and the most subject matter expertise to who's the most loyal and trusted? Number one, number two, comms and collaboration. The single biggest factor that we pointed to after 9-11 in this country was the lack of comms and collaboration between our between our intelligence agencies when uh aggregating data and understanding what was going on in the rest of the world. So I feel like there's a there there is a bigger aspect to this job. Uh, and I feel like the fact that he doesn't have the subject matter expertise, I think is potentially very dangerous. Am I am I way off there?

SPEAKER_04 11:12

I think your your visceral reaction is is right to be concerned. It's sort of like as you slow down and pick at this, like what is the job that you start to get a little bit more comfort around it. And look, everybody, you know, uh if we were all hiring, you know, you'd be hiring for the person with the best, you know, merit-based, right? Someone who's got the most qualifications. But you have to remember that this is you have to have some situational awareness, of course, right? There's not in every instance, it's not always the smartest or the most competent person for that job that you really need at that point in time. This is a stopgap measure that he's not gonna get the job. Statutorily, he can't get the job because to your point, Colby, he doesn't have the requirements. There's actually in the statute, like you need to actually know this stuff, have the experience in these things to be confirmed. So there's no mis, no mistaking, he's not gonna get the job. This is a stopgap to make sure that there isn't a vacuum that they couldn't control. I don't know what the pitch entailed beyond sort of the uh observational things that I suspect that he made.

SPEAKER_10 12:10

Tim, why do you think Bolti pitched this? Did you is this something you heard from insiders?

SPEAKER_04 12:16

Um, I've heard it. Yeah, I've heard it from people close enough to the action. He wants a cabinet position. I mean, he he certainly has been gunning for a cabinet position. And this is, you know, yeah, like an acting cabinet position.

SPEAKER_10 12:28

The reason I'm not that concerned is because we're so close to the midterms and things are looking dire, you know, starting to look dire for the Republicans. So I think if he was in this role a year ago, when you could worry less about the ramifications in the short term, it's one thing. But as we're getting close, you already see the revolt among some of the Republicans that aren't happy with this. So I think any shenanigans that go on, and then who knows what kind of internal pressure the president's getting to write what many feel like is a wrong. So um, but in terms of the mortgage industry, you know, I'd like to have a conversation about how this might impact us and the initiatives there, if at all. Um, you know, from where I'm from where I'm sitting, Polte's done okay. I mean, he took on the credit cartel, he's made progress that no one else made, whether whether you like how he did it or not, or tweeted or the way he communicates, whatever. He he drove impact in 400 days. The previous administration didn't drive any impact in that area. So um I I don't some people have speculated, Tim, and then I'll throw this question to you, we can go around the horn, um, that perhaps this is the beginning, there's a conspiracy theory that this is a way to get him out of Fannie and Freddie. I don't, I'm not able to connect those dots. What are your thoughts?

SPEAKER_04 13:46

He's not going anywhere. Um, he's I don't think he's leaving FHFA. I think he loves the job. He'd rather have a cabinet position. There isn't one for him. Um so, and then we know he's not gonna get the DNI one, which we just said. So I think he's he's staying around, but what it to me it it screams. I I contradicted some of the things I think it was KBW had come out that says he's gonna leave and he'll get replaced, and then this will be an accelerant to GSE reform. I, you know, I would argue it's the completely the opposite. He's not going anywhere, but this is evidence. Look, the guy's been he's been keeping, I don't want to say this in a trivial way, keeping himself busy in terms of look, the the decider hasn't decided what to do with GSE reform, and that's Trump. In the absence of that, they're like, all right, guys, what are we doing? You know, spinning plates, we got to do some things. They tackled some reasonably big things, they tackled things that I wouldn't have. I think the traditional proxies for things like the efficiency of the GSEs and fraud at the GSEs, the traditional proxies didn't scream that there was a problem there, right? You make two and a half million dollars per employee net, and delinquency rates begin with the point. Okay, those don't scream that this is an inefficient organization with credit problems, right? So I think that they've been doing things that are important, sort of out on the fringes, but the the the ang the energy that you get from the GSEs, from FHFA, from the Hill is just there isn't a lot of energy. Just in the absence of that big move, that big, hairy, audacious goal directive, there's not a lot to do. So I think right now it's it's like, hey, look, I got time. Um, you know, rumors are that he's not in the office that much, not as a criticism. He doesn't have to be in the in the office, but he's definitely, you know, he's he's got some time, it seems like, to do this work. Um, and again, he's demonstrated to be a loyal sort of servant to them. But the net net of it is I think that this says a lot about GSE reform, that it's unlikely that you're gonna see anything material. Any turn.

SPEAKER_10 15:52

Aaron and Koge, any final thoughts on this topic?

SPEAKER_06 15:55

Yeah, I mean, it I'm getting the sense, Tim, that you're you're you're saying let's let's take a beat, let's pause and and see what this looks like. But uh the reality is that there's not a whole ton that can go very wrong very quickly here. So let's let's all calm down.

SPEAKER_04 16:11

I would think so. I would think so. I'm I'm trying to give them all the benefit of the doubt. I can't imagine that, you know, obviously what it's like to be president of the United States, but there is some comfort in knowing that you had somebody like Poulty who, you know, this this this person you could pull his fingernails out and is not going to crack on you based on everything that we can tell. So he's a loyal subject. He's done some pretty, you know, he's if you looked at his portfolio without knowing anything, it seems massively impressive. So taking this on doesn't seem to be a quantum leap for Trump, who's not like us, who are living and breathing these things every day, and we gasp at every basis point move, right? So I think in the end of the day, it'll be perfectly fine. I mean, depends on how long he gets in there. And I'll caveat it all with saying that this is to all based on the assumption, hope more of a presumption, that this is not done because there is something in play that the president has in mind that he ultimately needs somebody who's trusted, loyal, maybe would look the other way on something that others might really scrutinize. That's in the works. I don't have any evidence of that. That would be the only thing that would give me pretty great pause at this stage that something gets teed up in the intelligence community, his sponsorship, Pulti sponsorship of it becomes critical and it gets flagged through uh to the detriment of whatever. Obviously, we don't know what it is, then I'd say we're all in for it. But I don't see any evidence of that just yet.

SPEAKER_01 17:43

It's my understanding he can he can be here for 210 days, right? He can keep this position. So I think it's important to note that that gets us past the midterms and allows Trump time once he sees how bad the midterms truly are, to decide how to how to proceed with the long-term candidate.

SPEAKER_10 17:58

Tim, I also saw I read somewhere that uh can you guys hear me okay now? Am I back? I'm on a I'm on a hot good timing. Good timing that my internet completely went down and now I'm on a hot spot. I love it. Uh the the no surrender gods are like just shut this guy up. But I I had um I had read that it's 210 days, but then even though they know he'll never get confirmed, they can put him back up. And if he is denied, he gets another that 210 days starts over again, which means it could be a uh it could be a total of 420 days, which is a long time. I don't know if any of you know this to be true, but I did read that. Anyway, I think they did they do that with uh with I do know that 420 days is a long time. Yes, I do know that to be true. Um I like that this has been awesome, buddy. Uh I will say that not you know, not only has uh you know Poulti avoided um you know getting uh sidetracked and he's kept the job, he's also apparently avoided getting his ass kicked. Um Aaron you know begged me to play this. I by the way, I'm a Poulti fan. I I am I am a Poulti backer and and believer, and I will support him until he gives me a reason not to, just to be clear. Well, thank you very much. I've I've taken it from the beginning. Here's Aaron D. Uh this is Aaron who asked me to play this.

SPEAKER_04 19:20

Tell Paulte, you're telly you were gonna punch him in the face. Uh no, sir.

SPEAKER_00 19:29

I actually said it was gonna kick his ass. Good. Okay, good. I share the emotion.

SPEAKER_10 19:35

Aaron, why did you get such a kick out of that? You love that.

SPEAKER_01 19:38

It's just hilarious. I just love it. It's great. Yeah.

SPEAKER_10 19:44

Yes, so somebody uh also asked um Marco Rubio, and he was testifying yesterday or the day before, you know, if if he's ever heard Poulty's name mentioned with intelligence, and he said no. I I Tim, I know you saw that. Hey, um Tim, you're you you've been anointed now as the no surrender uh inside the beltway guy. So this will not be the last time you're on. We really appreciate the few minutes with you today. Anytime, guys.

SPEAKER_04 20:09

Anytime.

SPEAKER_10 20:09

Be good.

SPEAKER_04 20:10

Thanks for having me. Thanks, Tim. All right, be good, guys. See ya. Happy to be now.

SPEAKER_10 20:13

Next time we're gonna have you get on that piano and play something, all right? So start practicing.

SPEAKER_06 20:18

See you later. Also, the first ever no surrender guest. First ever that is true.

SPEAKER_01 20:25

Love that guy. We should send him like a plaque.

SPEAKER_06 20:27

Um, can I can I do an impromptu swerve here for a moment? Oh, yeah. Um swerver.

SPEAKER_10 20:33

So Aaron does the Aaron does the sliding. You can do the swerve.

SPEAKER_06 20:36

She also has got the the head thing that she can do. Yeah. Oh, there she goes. Um, you know, and it was something that I that I thought to bring up, and then we got sidetracked by Yoga Pants and Bill Pulti this week. But um, as of the last check, and I just did this a couple of moments ago before we got on air, uh Greg is 46 followers away from 40,000. And you know, numbers don't tell a whole story, but they do tell part of a story. And the reason that that 40,000 number to me is so meaningful is because of the work you've done in this industry, the advocacy, you can be sure, all of us can be sure, all of us, that when there's a topic or an issue at hand, Greg finds the human aspect to it. And that's something that I very much value and respect about you. And I've said it many times before, and I'll say it again, that when I first started to speak and raise my voice in this industry, you were one of the people that uh offered, without knowing who I was or where I came from, offered to help me. And uh, and I and I think you've done that for countless people that are your followers. Um, and so I I hope you get to that 40,000 number today. You should. Um, and I just want to thank you for all you've done for this industry, all you've done for me. And uh, it's uh honor and a privilege to work with you.

SPEAKER_01 21:51

Aw. I'll I'll start a few like bot farm LinkedIn accounts and get you get you through the number.

SPEAKER_10 21:58

I appreciate that. Yeah. Don't know what to say. Other than other than thank you, I'm not going to get uh any more sad than I already did during the shirt funeral. So we have to move on. Or next thing I'll be burning my computer, you know, and then I won't be, then you won't see me anymore. That would be terrible. Although some might like it. Thank you, Kobe. I appreciate it, man. Um Berkshare Hathaway's $8.5 billion acquisition of Taylor Morrison Home Corp. Uh, what does this tell us as Berkshare goes deeper? They've already got Clayton Holmes, which is the manufactured housing um builder. And now they take this slice. It looks from the outside in that this is another entity making a bet on the future and the flywheel. Um Aaron, ladies first.

SPEAKER_01 22:43

I mean, I think, you know, a couple things. One, I had the opportunity to spend last Tuesday in Raleigh with the uh Taylor Morrison's head of corporate finance, and just the way they run that organization is very thoughtful. It's a very well-run organization, so I can see why they would be an attractive target. And I think it just plays in perfectly with how Berkshire actually goes and looks for acquisitions. I this is not dissimilar to when they act acquired Clayton. Um, and so I think I think this fits in. We're in the the part of the down cycle, and I think they're gonna probably end up doing making this company grow exponentially. I think it's clear that they see something in it, and I see something in the way the company's run. So, you know, it makes sense to me.

SPEAKER_06 23:21

Yeah. Um, you know, I know we I know we had some uh discussions about that this week, uh, whether or not there's a housing shortage, and this plays right into that conversation because what Berkshire Hathaway did here was they made a bet on the housing industry. Uh while we know that there are supply constraints on existing homes and there seems to be a loosening of the supply or there's more supply on the new construction, and we know that uh based on the months of supply, and we know that based on the percentage of concessions that most builders are giving, which is the highest it's ever been almost 20%. Um, so though those two uh uh bars tell the story. Um, but we know that eventually we're gonna have to build more homes in this country. We've not built enough homes ever since the Great Recession. We we're running out of deficit. We're adding homes, but we are running out of deficit. Um, and there's certainly nuanced discussions to be had around that. Um, but what Berkshire Hathaway did here was they made a bet that eventually we're gonna need more homes. And and and and though the regulatory costs are still what they are, though the costs of labor and materials are still what they are, the market is going to demand more homes. And this was a pretty large bet. Um, I know that this was one of the first bets by their their new leader, Abel, um, who who came in and is trying to make his mark. And I think that uh I hope more people make an investment into this sector because we do need more homes. And and I hope that the message that I have for Taylor Morrison and for the builder community at large is let's let's all band together and work towards lowering some of the cost of permitting and zoning and environmentals so we can actually build starter homes for the people that need them the most. And um, here's just a chart of of all the different uh crazy numbers that um are out there. The administration says uh, you know, 10 million home deficit, NAHB 1.2. You think the NAHB would be the most aggressive on this, they're the least aggressive on this. Um, but um, you know, we're all over the place. It does tell you something. Um, you know, but uh, you know, it it it speaks to it speaks to the fact that we we put a lot of builders out of business in the Great Recession, and we need to get that that sector of the market moving again.

SPEAKER_10 25:25

Have we ever had a conversation about who benefits from the narrative that there are shortages? I don't think so. No, builders for one, right? Home builders.

SPEAKER_06 25:35

Yeah, that's which which makes this chart curious because they have the most conservative estimate.

SPEAKER_10 25:39

Yeah, I understand, and I thought that too. Um Wall Street landlords, right? Them too, realtors. Uh the fact of the matter is, you know, in my opinion, we don't have a shortage. Uh we've got an affordability challenge, we have an allocation challenge, and we have a vacancy challenge. I mean 146 million housing units and 132 million households. That's 14 million more homes and households. Yeah. Uh census counts 15.1 million vacant units. That's 10.3% of the stock. Why are we talking about a housing shortage? Also, rents are going down. That's the complete opposite of what normally happens when you've got a shortage, Aaron, right?

SPEAKER_01 26:28

Yeah, absolutely. And if you look at I just yesterday, I think uh Realtor.com came out. Um it's been blasted all over the wires today, where sellers are finally understanding reality, which is what I was saying the other day, is that you have cognitive dissonance with a lot of sellers around where the prices should be. And when you lower those sales prices, all of a sudden contracts are up. And that realtor.com survey says sellers are cutting prices and now contracts are up. And so, you know, to your point, Greg, we have an issue with with homes that people could afford, but not necessarily a stock shortage. Now, we can talk about aging housing stock and and housing stock that's not resilient to uh to disasters. That's a conversation we can definitely have, but I just don't think that we have this massive housing shortage. I think it's a it's partially a cognitive dissonance issue.

SPEAKER_10 27:16

Well, I think you look at the disparity in in just this chart alone. Like nobody has any idea what we're they're talking about.

unknown 27:25

Yeah.

SPEAKER_10 27:25

I mean, the Dallas Fed, what was that? Is that a 68 million? Is that right? No, no, 628 million. There's a hyphen missing there. Okay, got it. Gee, I was gonna say, good lord, that's that's a big number. I mean, but even 6.8 million is big, uh, 4.7, certainly compared to 1.2. Um, and there have been some people that have come out and said that it's not even there is no shortage. Um you know, I think I think we've also I I've written about this many times. Like we China has got very strict limits on what you can do. You can't even buy if you're an outsider, you can't even buy a home unless you've lived there for one year. Okay. And then you're limited to one home and it's a leasehold. It's not even a freehold. And here we are allowing people to come in left and right, buy up our houses block by block. That's a problem. We've we have created this narrative and we've created this problem, and that's why I'm in favor of tightening it up. And I don't think they're going far far enough with big corporations and the you know, however many units cap that they're proposing. Who knows if that even goes through? Um any more thoughts on this? Or what I just said?

SPEAKER_01 28:29

I mean, I think to your point that you just said, you had, you know, in Texas, we passed a law on foreign ownership, but it's it there's significant challenges because of the Fair Housing Act there. So, you know, we have legislation that's in place that that is really going to be a hindrance to any any sort of legislation on foreign ownership.

SPEAKER_06 28:47

Yeah, I mean, the big institutions, they're buying, you know, about 1% of the housing stock. Um, you know, we we certainly don't have a glut of people flooding into this country buying homes. I'm not sure where that narrative comes from. And I'm not sure basing our housing uh policy on what China's doing is is the direction we want to take.

SPEAKER_10 29:05

Well, the relevancy, I forget the number, but I think last year 78,000 units were purchased by foreign entities or something like that. Uh and I haven't written about it for five. It does, and you're gonna say it's a small little percentage. Yeah, all these things stack up. That's the issue, right?

SPEAKER_06 29:20

But that number doesn't stack. That's where that number is. And and and it's I mean, 70. We built, we built. If you want to talk about, we're still building, right? We built 1.2 million homes last year. We're not building enough, but we're still building.

SPEAKER_10 29:30

What happens when you overbuild? Have you ever thought about that? Whatever. You know, if there, if there is, yeah, right. And who wants that? I mean, I happen to think that's what it's gonna, that's what's required. I mean, that then there's people all over the internet talking about this. Um, you know, here's one particular individual. Kobe, I know you love this sound bite. This is straight from Twitter.

SPEAKER_05 29:52

All right, I never make videos like this, but this is just too good to pass up. Home sellers are now outnumbering buyers by 630,000, the largest gap ever recorded. And it's obvious why that is. The prices of these homes that the sellers want is astronomical. They are out of their mind, they're delusional. Zillow is complicit, they've got them believing that their 50-year-old house that they purchased for $100,000 is now worth $750. Guess what? Buyers in 2026 are fucking saying no, we are not paying for that old bullshit that you think is worth that much money. Get out of here.

SPEAKER_06 30:34

Yeah, I mean, you know, the rantings of a guy who's obviously hanging out in a beer garden. I think he crushed a can against his forehead as soon as he was done recording that. Um, you know, 600, you know, where's the evidence of any of that, other than you know, some dude trying to get likes on Twitter? Uh, how does he how is he qualifying what a buyer is? That's my first question.

SPEAKER_01 30:52

Well, why don't you, Greg, can you throw my graph up from HousingWire? Shout out to Housing Wire Intelligence, right?

SPEAKER_10 30:59

Let's go, Clayton. Diego. Shout out. All right.

SPEAKER_01 31:02

So I pulled this. This is just for Florida. So this is looking at inventory price reduction pending home sales, right? And so when you look at when prices are reduced, your pending home sales skyrocket up, right? And so to me, this is just data to support. We have a sales price and a seller's sales price expectation expectation issue. And when you bring those prices down to something that's one more affordable and two more in line with what with what buyers think a home is worth, then your sale, your house actually moves.

SPEAKER_10 31:35

For sure. I mean, we also have a lock-in problem, but that that is starting to diminish. I posted about this yesterday. Um there are fewer people that uh have a rate below 3%, below 4%. That's starting to loosen up. I mean, where was the housing shortage narrative in 2019, 2020? Um you know, I mean, Kobe, any opinion on on and I think a lot of this is just the fact that people people aren't moving because of a bunch of factors. I mean, and you know, not the least of which is the economy, inflation, uh, people having to make choices, which we talked about last week. There's a lot at play here. This is the most complicated housing picture I can ever remember.

SPEAKER_06 32:20

Yeah. I mean, look, you have to if you if you want to go back to 2019 and talk about why wasn't the housing shortage part of the narrative back then, well, housing prices were about 45% less than they are right now in 2019. So it wasn't as big of a problem from an affordability standpoint. And and you're absolutely right, we do have an affordability problem.

SPEAKER_10 32:36

But you're making that's you're making our point though, aren't you?

SPEAKER_06 32:38

No, no, I'm I'm I'm I'm buttressing your point. Oh when you when you talk when you talk about when you talk about what creates an affordability problem, it's it's the payment. The house payment creates part of the affordable affordability problem. What raises the house payment? Higher prices. 40% higher prices mean a 40% higher mortgage, mean a 40% higher payment. Tack on interest rates that are six and a half percent instead of four and a half percent, and then insurance taxes. So, so yeah, of course it's an affordability problem, but the but the inventory and the supply drives that because the cost of the thing makes the thing unaffordable.

SPEAKER_10 33:12

Yeah, and the inventory is tied up, the boomers have it all, right? They've got they've got two, three, four, two, three, four homes that are in their 80s practically. That's an inventory argument there, yeah. Yep, that stuff's coming back to the market, buddy. All right, sorry to call you buddy. You're more like my best friend, buddy. Hey guy, but best friend. Hey, best friend. Uh that that's I mean, so there's that. There's the 78,000 properties, and as you you would say, none of them are big, but again, in aggregate, they all they they all they all land one way or another.

SPEAKER_06 33:43

I I'm not I'm not saying all problems are equal. And and we do have, and part of the inventory struggle that we do have is exactly what you said. It's it's people that are aging in place and not moving the way that they used to in this country. People are also aging and they're getting older and living longer. Um, you know, my my my grandmother just turned 101. Well, she did and then she died, but she sorry, Aaron. There was a problem.

SPEAKER_10 34:04

I was gonna say we should have her on the show, but never mind.

SPEAKER_06 34:06

Yeah, we uh that ship sailed a little bit, but she she made it to 101. And and and there's so many people out there that are now, you know, making it into their 90s and hundreds. And my grandmother died in her own house. I mean, so I mean, people are staying in their homes for longer, they're living longer, and that is certainly creating a transfer of wealth problem and an inventory problem, and we have to acknowledge that.

SPEAKER_10 34:28

Kobe, I don't want to end this topic. We're gonna go on to Aaron's argument that the 30-year fix is a thing of the past, but I but I don't want to leave out the impact that the new condo policy is having, in your opinion, on some of these problems. Yeah, I mean you you're throwing that to me or Aaron. That's you, buddy. You're you were hot, you were all hot, you were hot and bothered on this this week.

SPEAKER_06 34:49

Yeah, I mean, we you know, we we we talk about, I mean, if you want to talk about the FHFA and and GSC policies, I mean, this is one of them that they changed, and we talked about this on a show, I think, four or five weeks ago, or might have been the second, might have been longer than that. The changes to FHA and what that's actually going to do from a supply constraint problem, um, taking more condos out of the mix because more condos are non-warrantable, raising the reserve requirement, the getting rid of the streamline, all of those things, I mean, in an era where we're trying to figure out how to lower the cost of homeownership and bring more inventory to market, and we see it starting to affect areas like Florida, where that is condo heavy and already has had issues with condos over the last few years, we're making it even more difficult for people to find affordable places to live. And if you want to look at one of the single most uh sought-after points of entry in the housing market, it is condominiums because those tend to be more affordable and easier points of access for first-time buyers. So making that more difficult to me makes absolutely no sense. And it's something that we talked a lot about it the week that it happened, and now it seems to have disappeared and got swallowed up by other issues, but that needs to be front and center.

SPEAKER_01 35:52

Well, I agree. And and um, you know, I know the Mortgage Bankers Association, the mortgage collaborative, there's several industry trade groups that are working on this. I believe that FHFA is intentionally doing this, that they know what they're doing. Um, you know, they the headline is that this is their insurance change, is putting 35,000 more units on the online. But then when you take away limited reviews and you talk about the the 15% that they acknowledge is going to increase HOA dues by an average of $40, that is going to knock more HOAs out of uh condos out of being warrantable, pushing them into the non-QM space, assumably, which is much higher rates. This is absolutely a terrible, terrible policy if we want to continue having condos as an affordable outlets, especially for first-time homebuyers.

SPEAKER_10 36:39

I can't believe you guys aren't incense that census counts 15.1 million vacant units, 10% of US's housing stock. And how are we allowing that to happen? What can the government do if anything? Where are we?

SPEAKER_06 36:51

Where are those where are those units, Greg?

SPEAKER_10 36:53

Where are those units?

SPEAKER_02 36:54

Are they livable?

SPEAKER_10 36:55

Are they places where people want to live? Do people want to live? Yeah, they're not in my neighborhood.

SPEAKER_01 37:00

Can they live in them? Are they habitable?

SPEAKER_10 37:03

That's a good question. I've not start going door to door uh as soon as we get off here.

SPEAKER_06 37:08

Same with this, uh, you know, the federal government owning all this land that we want to then convert. Like, I mean, what are we gonna put a housing community around Old Faithful in Yellowstone? Like what what what are we proposing there? Oh, boomer's 640.

SPEAKER_10 37:20

Yeah, there's 644 million acres that the U.S. government owns, and apparently less than one percent of that, which is still a big number. You know, can can be lived in water can get there, uh, electric can get there.

SPEAKER_06 37:31

I mean, again, we don't need to build houses in the woods. We don't need to build houses in the woods, just lower the cost of building houses in the house.

SPEAKER_10 37:38

Every house, every every every house, you know, used to be the woods, right? So, I mean, when you say you don't need to build houses in the woods, my neighborhood used to be all wooded. So, I mean, that's where you build houses usually, right? There's not there's not just all this pretty straight land sitting around.

SPEAKER_06 37:53

With wilderness, fine. Woods is one thing, wilderness. We don't need to be out there clearing out the bears and the mountain lions to build communities. We've got areas where we can build houses right now in our backyards, all three of us collective, if we just Yimbi instead of NIMBY, by lowering the cost to build.

SPEAKER_01 38:08

Well, there's a lot of urban areas that the federal government owns. It's not all wilderness, so you know, we that is a viable area without having to go out and hang out with Smoky.

SPEAKER_10 38:17

I mean, another area they're too the last time I read, this was about six months ago. The U.S. government owned two million or so uh dilapidated properties. Why are they letting them sit? Why aren't they rehabbing those and putting those back online? Again, another small little measure that can be taken.

SPEAKER_06 38:32

Um we talked about commercial properties being converted. You know, there they're there are a lot of levers to pull.

SPEAKER_10 38:36

Yeah. I think you got yelled at when you did that. I sure did. I sure did. Uh yeah. So uh let's uh let's flip around here, Aaron. Uh the 30-year mortgage, 30-year fixed mortgage is a thing of best. That is uh that that's a great look. Yeah, I may look for my cup holder here for another mic drop, depending on what you say. Tell us about that.

SPEAKER_01 39:00

I think I think we've we've just got it, we just have a bunch of 12-month arms now, right? If you we had a bunch of data come out recently on what's going on with the cost of homeowners insurance, it's something that's been a topic for a long time. Dallas Fed just came out with a study, and their study is saying that there's been from 2019 to 2025 a 70% increase in premiums. The HOI used to be 10% of your total payment. Now it's moved up to 14%. This graph right here shows the annual increase in insurance and it's outpacing even inflation, which has been absolutely insane. And so now we're so proud of our 30-year fixed rate mortgage, but when you have every single year, and I'm not even talking about taxes here, this is just insurance. Your insurance is going up significantly by double digits every year. I think 26, it's only going to go up by 9%, so not double digits, but still increasing. You don't have a 30-year fixed rate mortgage anymore. And I think the whole point I'm trying to get to here is are we are we stress testing borrowers who are on the threshold of our DTI limits when we're especially in areas where these homeowners' insurance rates are going up so significantly and we're talking about the number of delinquencies increasing. And if you talk to anybody in the servicing world, especially in the FHA servicing world, they'll tell you that escrow adjustments is the leading cause and the leading driver of delinquencies. And if, and and you know, the Dallas Fed is saying that these increases are going to continue to increase into the future, right? They're they're anticipating over 200,000 additional delinquencies per year because of this. So this is not something that it's been a rough couple of years, but we're going to level out and go back to how it always was with having fairly consistent premiums. I think we do need to, as we need to stop and take a look and say, are we, are we stress testing borrowers in these in this environment properly?

SPEAKER_10 40:53

I mean, how much do you stress test them though? Do you start capping DTIs in these troubled areas to 30? You know, like uh, I mean, then it becomes punitive. Are there some areas of the country where people shouldn't even be living in anymore? Uh, right now things have stabilized, Kobe, because you know, we haven't had too many disasters. There were the Palisade fires, obviously. Um, but it's been relatively quiet over the last year to 18 months or so, but but that can change really fast. So, how should we be thinking about this? And what can the industry do to mitigate the consequences of what is inevitably going to be another incident that's uh debilitating?

SPEAKER_06 41:32

Yeah, you know, I don't think you're way off base when you're talking about capping DTIs in certain areas. We already have areas of the country where that we determine our flood zones, that we determine our higher risk, and we put different, we have different rules for condos in Florida because of some of the things that happened there in the past. We have a history of identifying certain areas and making different rules for those areas. I don't think that's way off base. The 30-year fix is the bedrock of the US housing market. And the promise of the 30-year fix is that it is that your wages and and and investments are going to outpace the inflation and you're going to have a more affordable housing payment as time goes on. If we have uh taxes that have gone up 30% since 2019, the insurance says, as Aaron has pointed out here, that it's gone up exponentially higher. And we have to look at where that's happening above other places. And maybe we do have to determine, you know, are are people living in higher risk areas? And should those people pay a premium for living in higher risk areas? I pay a premium for living in Northern California because I deal with wildfire risk. So I'm already paying that. I'm paying more in insurance than somebody's paying in in Maine for the same kind of thing. So I think people can make choices about where they live, but I think in order to keep the housing market balanced, we do have to consider some of those things. And I don't think that's wrong. I don't think it's punitive.

SPEAKER_10 42:48

Let me tell you what brings all of this back to reality uh reduction in home prices by 20%. That will bring a lot of clarity to the things we're talking about, a lot of the problems that we're identifying, including this one right here, that will solve a lot of problems. Now, for the folks that are holding houses, that that's not anything they want to talk about. And uh and so, but that that is what it would that could re that could give us a very healthy reset for those people on the outside looking in and those people struggling to make their mortgage payments. Um also just some some numbers average escrow amounts up 55% from 2019 to 2025. 80 percent of homeowners saw property tax rise, 70% saw insurance rise during that time. Um home insurance rates have risen five consecutive years, projected four four percent this year, Aaron. What you mentioned. Let's uh let's, you know, this is a perfect segue into um the urban institute's um revelation this week that we should start looking at, and this is gonna sound preposterous to many. Some of you, the minority, I would hope, would support this. Kobe, that the market is ready to support 100% FHA financing.

SPEAKER_06 44:08

Yeah. Just uh a bad idea that comes from a bad premise. The uh Urban Institute has has determined, um, and this is not the first time they they they actually put this forth back in 2024 as a counterman to Kamala Harris's $25,000 first-time buyer credit that she floated during the 107 days that she was running for president. Um, the premise is that down payment assistance and grants, uh, and there's 2,600 of them across the country, just ask uh our friend Brad Cardwell from DPR. He'll tell you all about them. Um, the premise is that there are 14 million renters that are gated from the housing market because they don't understand what the down payment requirements are. They don't know how to access down payment assistance, they don't know how to access grants, they have no idea how to uh get a gift from family and how that all works. And so there's 14 million people that could benefit if we just streamline the way we deliver FHA loans. They pointed to a sample size of 47,000 loans that gave them their 12 basis point increase in risk. Those 47,000 loans are obviously not FHA loans. There's a lot of USDA and VA loans that have uh some underwriting protections in them that FHA don't, and a lot of conventional loans that were high LTV. Um, it's the wrong product for the right time for a variety of reasons. Number one, um, you know, they took a lot of their data from 2013 to 2021. Uh, and we know that the most dangerous vintages of FHA loans, and I just posted about this yesterday, is 2022 to 2024, representing 55% of all serious delinquent loans across the country. FHA, uh, as of the first quarter of this year, delinquency is up uh almost 12%, which is about six times higher than conventional loans. So the other part of this that we still haven't even talked about is what happens if you put 14 million new entrants into the buyer market when you have a supply-constrained market. I mean, we're just going to further make home prices go up and it's going to become even less attainable for those folks. And that also ties into the condo discussion we had that a lot of the starter properties that they have are now harder to access. So wrong product for the wrong time. We need more supply-side solutions, and we need better demand-side solutions that don't inject more risk into the market.

SPEAKER_01 46:22

So, as an originator, I often hear loan officers say they want to offer a certain down payment assistance program because they can say they offer it, but then when they get in, they're able to actually show the consumer how there's actually they can go regular FHA with a gift or with something. And it's actually much better terms for them than what the DPA would have been, right? And so, so, you know, but we still have a very valid and big DPA market. Um, I ran numbers, the most recent numbers available were from 2024, and over 40% of the FHA loans are originated with the DPA. So I would first say we are already doing a hundred percent FHA loan, 40% of them, in fact, with those DPAs, right? Um, and the DPA performance is significantly worse than those. So I think the FHA book is already kind of bearing the burden of having that 100% financing. And so, you know, I think there potentially could be an argument made to where maybe a hundred percent FHA loan is actually a better deal from a rate point, rate fees perspective for a borrower than doing the adding the DPA on top of it, adding that confusing process on for the DPA on top of it. Let's also not forget, Kobe, I think you brought this point up, is DPA is also not a lender's favorite choice because it's limited in profitability as well, right? And so I think there's also some some incentives behind the scenes to work to get away from the DPAs. But if you can do a regular FHA loan with terms that are better for the consumer than having a DPA on top of it, then perhaps it's not going to be as bad on the delinquency side. And I've heard this idea floated up before with um coupled with requiring the consumer to close with an escrow that's held almost like a repair escrow by the lender with one, two, three months P ITI to where if they get into a situation where they have financial hardship, they've got this funds that they can draw on to make their payment, kind of to make up for having no skin in the game. And so, you know, the the idea in of itself, you know, I think I kind of had the the same initial reaction that you guys did. But if you dig into it, um, I think we're already doing it. And I think that there is a way that you could make it so it it's it's not as bad as everybody's making it out to be.

SPEAKER_10 48:31

Well, after UFMIP, you're looking at roughly 102% LTV in a soft market. So this is about the worst, this is about the worst time I I could think of to uh to pull this product out of the mix here. I don't exactly know what the impetus is for them, where this came from, or you guys may know more of the history on it, Kobe. Do you know anything about it?

SPEAKER_06 48:53

I mean, the little bit of digging, if you think about who who underwrites the Urban Institute, it's a lot of big lenders. And to Aaron's point, if it makes it easier to do just a straight 100% LTV loan versus having to get the DPA into the mix, then you know perhaps that's the agenda is to just make more of these loans easier to make and more profitable.

SPEAKER_10 49:12

Yeah, I mean, they've talked about um guardrails 700 credit score. Um, but look, what one of the reasons they'd be doing this is because it's very clear that folks don't have the money to put down the three and a half percent. So why would you hand the keys over to somebody uh in a in a climate where delinquencies are rising and prices are softening? It just maybe, maybe another day. I mean, it's an interesting argument you make, Aaron. Not an argument, but you really dug into the data. I appreciate the work you did on this. And it's definitely something worth keeping an eye on. If if the market, if and when, because we know all this is cyclical, when the market gets a little bit better, then certainly it'll be something to look at. Um anything else on this topic? Can we uh can we just take a look at my son Benji's swag? Do you guys mind? So before I before I got here today, he's 14. He's very he's just got this swag about him. He just has this cockiness.

SPEAKER_06 50:10

And uh I don't know, but is he the one that wrote my name on your back?

SPEAKER_10 50:16

Uh no, he is not. That was my friend Aaron, by the way. He did a great job. Kudos to Aaron! My dermatologist who's frozen many things off of his face. That that that's why I look like this. Anyway, before I got to uh behind this this microphone, um, I was at my son's uh middle school graduation today. And so I caught a little glimpse of Benji. He's the only person that was fist bumping anyone. Just take a look at this kid. Very proud. I'm a very proud kid.

SPEAKER_01 50:44

So Benji.

SPEAKER_09 50:51

Let me just go back here. Look at this kid. Right behind the press. Who does he think he is?

SPEAKER_06 51:05

He looks like I mean, I mean, I mean, he uh the first kid had a gold medal. So that kid was somewhat impressive, but then your kid just had all the confidence I've ever seen out of a kid. I mean, what is he 11, 12, 13?

SPEAKER_10 51:19

No, no, he he's he's 14. You know, we haven't touched on we haven't touched on Kobe's favorite breaking news story this week yet. Do you know that, Aaron?

SPEAKER_01 51:27

Uh no.

SPEAKER_10 51:28

You're not aware of this?

SPEAKER_01 51:30

I mean, I feel like I should be. I've I'm drawing a blank.

SPEAKER_10 51:32

Well, we've talked about it. We talked about it in our production meeting, but we'll we'll listen to it and then we'll have a conversation uh about this right here.

SPEAKER_00 51:39

Artificial intelligence already touches many areas of our lives and affects decisions that shape human coexistence. It is also dramatically changing how war is waged. Artificial intelligence needs to be disarmed.

SPEAKER_10 52:00

Whoa. I mean, I know you were I know you were very moved by the Pope here.

SPEAKER_06 52:07

Well, I mean, first question I have is isn't that guy from Chicago? What's with that accent?

SPEAKER_10 52:12

That's a good question. I don't know where that came from.

SPEAKER_06 52:14

He's lived in Italy for like 10 months and like he's got an accent already.

SPEAKER_01 52:17

He's using an AI voice modulator.

SPEAKER_06 52:20

Yeah, I mean, you know, I I I I I struggle, I struggle to opine on stuff that popes talk about, and obviously there's an agenda there. Um, I don't know what his problem is. I think he's worried that anything that that uh lessens the noise coming out of the Catholic Church is a threat to him. So of course he's gonna talk down about AI, but um, you know, I saw this, I saw this post as well. Uh 88,000 layoffs have been attributed to AI so far. Look at that word though, attributed. And this is the problem I have with stories like this. The easiest thing in the world, if I'm running a company and and I'm not doing as well as I am supposed to be doing, and I've got investors or I'm a publicly traded company, well, and I've got to lay a whole bunch of people off. Well, it's not because I did a bad job, it's because, oh, AI is coming in and just making everything so much more efficient. So I I I look at the World Economic Forum and the fact that they've predicted that by 2030 there's going to be a net of like 170 million jobs worldwide because of it. And then I look at history, and I know you don't like that. You don't like when I look at history, Greg. But if I look at history and I go back to the Industrial Revolution, remember those days? Oh, yes, very well. Uh, good days. I think you had you had like 300 followers back then.

SPEAKER_10 53:31

Yes.

SPEAKER_06 53:32

Was the stapler made back then?

SPEAKER_10 53:33

Is that where this came from?

SPEAKER_01 53:34

That was not a red stapler. Get out of there.

SPEAKER_10 53:36

I'm at you know, I'm out of staples. There's nothing worse than being having a stapler you need, and then giving it that squeeze and nothing happens, just the air, you know. We've all been there.

SPEAKER_06 53:46

I haven't stapled, I haven't stapled anything in about 15 years, by the way. Um, if you if you look at all the way back to the industrial revolution.

SPEAKER_01 53:56

Keep going, Kobe. Plow through.

SPEAKER_06 54:00

We don't we don't have worse economic conditions, we don't have depressions, we don't have recessions because of technological innovation. We have times where we have periods of adjustment. The jobs that are there in the world today, most of them didn't exist back in 1940, and most of those didn't exist back in 1870. So the the the pearl clutching over AI and and what it actually means, is it going to have more? And I and I did a post about this as well, is it going to have more implications in an industry like mortgage where we're gated by the amount of of deals we can actually do? Yeah, and there's going to be some redeployment of the workforce in in other areas on the on the on the bleeding edge of document review and clerk-style jobs, but uh is it going to have impact? Of course. But those people are going to have find other jobs with new skills, and AI is going to produce the environment to have those jobs. So I I don't I don't have the same worry that uh some of the people on this show do, and certainly not the same worry that the Pope does.

SPEAKER_01 54:54

Well, first of all, I think we now have a bet going that you're just gonna say pro clutching on every single episode. But I, you know, I I actually agree with you on this. I one, if you read a lot of the layoffs that are being attributed to AI, it's all in anticipation of efficiency games, in anticipation of. So to me, that just tells me you are overstaffed and you're gonna try to not have to scale back up when you get busy. But you know, that anticipation word we see a lot to me is a dead giveaway.

SPEAKER_10 55:23

Yeah. We uh we talk about AI a lot in this industry from the lens of what's it gonna mean for processors, underwriters, but I think it's worth starting to consider it from another perspective, and that is if there are significant layoffs, many of those people have mortgages.

SPEAKER_02 55:40

Yes.

SPEAKER_10 55:40

And how will AI impact the ability to repay? That's something we should look at and start to think about. And and I hear what you guys are saying. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, and even an incremental needle mover is probably enough to have delinquencies rise a little bit. So we'll have to keep an eye on that. And I think I say needle move on just about every show, too. So you know what is it? We've all got our we've all got our buzzwords.

SPEAKER_06 56:07

What does Aaron say a lot? That's a good question. Aaron mixes it up.

SPEAKER_10 56:12

She Aaron mixes it up. She does a better job than we do. Aaron, how's uh how's the North Carolina living? You've been there now for what three three weeks?

SPEAKER_01 56:19

Uh almost a month, actually. I'm I'm coming up on a month, living it up. I took my girl, my my nieces out for a little girl date last night, took them to a bougie dinner. My nine-year-old niece got a lamb shank and literally ate every single piece of meat off the bone, stripped it in like an expensive restaurant, and I am here for that energetic.

SPEAKER_06 56:35

That is that is your DNA at work right there.

SPEAKER_01 56:38

Straight up.

SPEAKER_10 56:39

Yeah, I saw a picture from that event. You know, it's funny that you mentioned that because I was I was trying to pull this up so I could have this ready today, but I didn't, I wasn't able to pull it off. But I believe that you were looking very animated in the picture. Those are your knees, are those your nieces?

SPEAKER_02 56:54

Yeah.

SPEAKER_10 56:55

You're your auntie. What do they call you?

SPEAKER_01 56:57

Aunt Auntie?

SPEAKER_10 56:59

Aunt Aaron? Aunt Aaron.

SPEAKER_01 57:01

They call me when they want me to buy him something.

SPEAKER_10 57:04

I hey, I get that. I get that. Well, this has been a great show. We covered a lot of ground.

SPEAKER_01 57:08

We did. Hey, one thing I do want to say, I should have said this when we had Tim Rude on. If you are not following him on LinkedIn, uh his Impact Capital, they do like a daily news brief. It's a great follow, gets you summed up, and definitely follow him on LinkedIn if you're not.

SPEAKER_06 57:21

I'm gonna follow him. I I do follow him, but I'm gonna follow him even more closely because I'm very interested in his hair.

SPEAKER_01 57:26

He's the best, and his hair is amazing.

SPEAKER_10 57:29

I'm interested in the time frame on his cold and how long he'll be sucking on that uh cough drop. He probably still is. He was really working on it.

SPEAKER_06 57:37

Yeah, we should have at least 210 days.

SPEAKER_10 57:39

Yeah. Uh, this has been great. Nyung, thank you in the background for doing what you do. She's amazing. And uh, this is what our four our fourth episode. Yeah, best yet. Best yet. I had it, you know, my my internet crapped out in the middle of this. It's amazing that I was able to pop back on. Thanks for the love and the support. And uh, we'll see you again next Thursday at 1 p.m. Yeah, all the love. Until then, so long.

SPEAKER_01 58:02

Peace.

SPEAKER_10 58:03

See how we can burn between now and then later.

SPEAKER_03 58:07

No surrender on the show. We go toe to toe. What fail, what fails, who gets the most? Hot news, hot takes, waiting.